Before You Dismiss - Just Consider This

[The Shadow]

The Packers play the Rams this Sunday. The Rams are unbeaten & are considered by many to be the best team in the NFC right now.
The Rams are favored by 9 at the moment.

Now then : let's reason together.
That 9 point spread is based upon what the oddsmakers have seen all season from the 2 teams.
If the Packers simply stick to their usual MO, it will most likely result in a loss - death from a thousand cuts.

WHAT IF : McCarthy went ballistically bold?
Here's what he has :
- a future Hall of Fame QB
- what should be a full complement of healthy receivers
- Ty Montgomery, who has not to date been very effectively utilized, and Jamal Williams, an
adept pass blocker
- an offensive line that is capable of pass blocking for at least a short time
- and, of course, a really undependable defense

WHY NOT : Go all-pass (for at least 3 quarters? If you abandon the old traditional thinking of 'trying to establish the run', you eliminate the inevitable 2 yard runs during your drives, which take the ball out of your most talented player's hands.

Spread the Rams defense out. 4 receiver sets + Montgomery or Williams to pass block or occasionally sneak out of the backfield.
Concentrate on patterns of at least 10 yards.
In effect, you are now betting on one of the best quarterbacks to ever play to hit on at least 33% of his attempts to keep moving the chains.
You also force the Rams to pass rush on every offensive play - which has to begin wearing them down to some degree.
If you can somehow have the lead in the 4th quarter, THEN work in a running game.

I keep reading about how the Packers have to get that ol' running game together - but for me, this is simply playing into the hands of that 9 point spread.

LUCK FAVORS THE BOLD!!

[texaspackerbacker]

I like it ........ I don't expect McCarthy to literally go that far, but that kind of a game/taking a large step in the direction you're talking about is an excellent idea.

Normally, the bogey of a plan like this is the QB throws interceptions, but does anybody expect Aaron Rodgers to do that? Hell No.

[pbmax]

Substitute Jones for either RB and I am with you.

I don't expect this to happen though.

[Carolina_Packer]

The Packers play the Rams this Sunday. The Rams are unbeaten & are considered by many to be the best team in the NFC right now.
The Rams are favored by 9 at the moment.

Now then : let's reason together.
That 9 point spread is based upon what the oddsmakers have seen all season from the 2 teams.
If the Packers simply stick to their usual MO, it will most likely result in a loss - death from a thousand cuts.

WHAT IF : McCarthy went ballistically bold?
Here's what he has :
- a future Hall of Fame QB
- what should be a full complement of healthy receivers
- Ty Montgomery, who has not to date been very effectively utilized, and Jamal Williams, an
adept pass blocker
- an offensive line that is capable of pass blocking for at least a short time
- and, of course, a really undependable defense

WHY NOT : Go all-pass (for at least 3 quarters? If you abandon the old traditional thinking of 'trying to establish the run', you eliminate the inevitable 2 yard runs during your drives, which take the ball out of your most talented player's hands.

Spread the Rams defense out. 4 receiver sets + Montgomery or Williams to pass block or occasionally sneak out of the backfield.
Concentrate on patterns of at least 10 yards.
In effect, you are now betting on one of the best quarterbacks to ever play to hit on at least 33% of his attempts to keep moving the chains.
You also force the Rams to pass rush on every offensive play - which has to begin wearing them down to some degree.
If you can somehow have the lead in the 4th quarter, THEN work in a running game.

I keep reading about how the Packers have to get that ol' running game together - but for me, this is simply playing into the hands of that 9 point spread.

LUCK FAVORS THE BOLD!!

I call this plan, "Playing with house money" and like it. If they still have protection issues, or wide-outs struggling to get open issues, the plan will fail, but if you go in thinking that you are challenged to win anyway, don't you have to do something different than what has gotten you off to a slow start and behind the 8 ball in too many games?

That's just the offense. The defense will need their big boy pants to stop TG. If they sell out to stop TG, I hope it does not lead to leaky coverage, ala, Colin Kaepernick torching the Pack for over 400 yards a few years ago, but hey, we stopped the run.

I'm not a Belichick apologist, but you can't argue with the fact that he can customize a game plan to his opponent, whereas, MM seems to say, we have Aaron Rodgers and that should be good enough for us to take the approach we want to take, which is not always true. Then, when the plan breaks down we somehow start moving the ball when we play up tempo, but at that point, it could be the other coach just counting possessions in the second half, trying to protect players...garbage time. Why don't we just save ourselves from garbage time and come out with a unique approach?

[pbmax]

I'm not a Belichick apologist, but you can't argue with the fact that he can customize a game plan to his opponent, whereas, MM seems to say, we have Aaron Rodgers and that should be good enough for us to take the approach we want to take, which is not always true. Then, when the plan breaks down we somehow start moving the ball when we play up tempo, but at that point, it could be the other coach just counting possessions in the second half, trying to protect players...garbage time. Why don't we just save ourselves from garbage time and come out with a unique approach?

M3 definitely thinks this a majority of the time. But there are many examples* of him bypassing that thought process and doing something creative on offense. If the Rams alarm him enough, I expect something different.

The problem will be concern for Rodgers life and limb. While he is unusually unwilling to commit TE and RB to chip, he will take hugely limiting steps to protect an injured Rodgers.

* Any game versus the Patriots, Williams Wall Vikings, Falcons playoff

The weirdness is when he sees a defense that SHOULD be vulnerable (but survives with a ferocious pass rush) and then gets crushed until he adapts (any Giants game before that 2012, CK era 49ers, Seattle including 2014 playoffs).

[mraynrand]

I say go Six wides (or five WRs and a TE) and a running back. Pull the goalie! (I mean pull the RT!). Put one TE in as a center eligible. Dare them to rush Rodgers - he will have the ball out so fast it will make their heads spin!

[run pMc]

With Donald and Suh, they can rush with 4 and flood the back with coverage.

I'd consider a few shorter routes in case they jam receivers or go heavy blitz. I'd expect the Rams D to counter with ways to slow things down enough to pressure Rodgers.
Also, I think keeping the Rams offense off the field is the best defense, whether that be with runs or passes. (aka the Indy-era Peyton Manning defense)
You'd think someone capable of completing 60-70% of his passes would be able to complete enough to move the chains. No shame in dumping off to a RB like Jones if they can break a tackle and turn a 2 yd checkdown into a 12 yard run.

[Joemailman]

If you go heavy pass, they have to be high percentage passes though. Not hold onto the ball 6 seconds and then throw a sideline pass 30 yards downfield. The reason is you can't afford to have a lot of incomplete passes that lead to 3 and outs. It could get ugly fast if that happens.

[texaspackerbacker]

When is an Aaron Rodgers pass ever not a high percentage pass?

Yeah, get rid of the ball quick a good percentage of the time, but don't force those quick passes into coverage - Rodgers almost never does, and if the first read isn't there, let Aaron be Aaron - let him scramble around and throw it down the field. THAT is the Packers bread and butter, not just against a tough team like the Rams, but all the time.

The difference between what we basically do most of the time and what is advocated in Post #1 is not wasting a down here and there with running plays. Knowing McCarthy, he's still gonna waste a few plays running it into the retreating backsides of our mediocre O Line. However, Shadow's plan above - which hopefully McCarthy will at least try some watered down version of - tends to take the O Line out of the equation. Either get rid of the ball quick or have the QB scramble, both of which should have good outcomes.

[pbmax]

When is an Aaron Rodgers pass ever not a high percentage pass?


When he gets sacked.

You got any more riddles?

[Joemailman]

When is an Aaron Rodgers pass ever not a high percentage pass?



When it's incomplete. And right now he's 28th in the NFL in completion percentage. When Rodgers is great, he is at least in the Top 10. Or top 5. Incomplete passes lead to bad down and distance. That's been a problem all year.

[texaspackerbacker]

When he gets sacked.

You got any more riddles?

Actually, a sack is not a pass. And sacks and hurries are on the mediocre O Line blocking for him. Rodgers virtually never throws an interception. More incompletions than usual this year? That sure beats interceptions, and as his mobility gets back to normal, I can't help thinking the throwaways and small degree of inaccuracy will decrease as his leg heals up.

[gbgary]

sacks count vs passing yards...also when he passes up an open underneath guy for a long ball the percentage goes down.

[yetisnowman]

^^^^Exactly. Outside of the rookies and Bortles, Rodgers has the worst in the NFL. He still isn't healthy. The best strategy is minimizing LA's possessions and throwing 20 or more incompletions is not the way to do that. It's a quick way to get blown out.

[texaspackerbacker]

Sounds like the lofty goal of some of ya'all is to come within 3 touchdowns or so hahahahahaha.

[mraynrand]

You got any more riddles?

What makes Stubby heavier, never diminishes, but only after a Packer home loss?

[George Cumby]

Schrodingers Cat.

[run pMc]

Playing the short, quick timing throws game combined with no huddle (or very fast tempo) to move the chains and wear out the D could work. Rodgers has to buy into that and not hold the ball.
The other thing if you want to be aggressive is to never punt outside your own ~40yd line unless it's 4th and 6+...but in our scenario Rodgers would never find himself in that situation, right? :P

[CaptainKickass]

I don't recall the opponent or year, but there was a game sort of recently in which the Cheesesteak/Rodgers led Packers ran the no-huddle/hurry-up offense in an effort to bleed and control the clock and thus win the time of possession.

The other recollection I have about that game is that it looked a whole lot like Holmboy's "West Coast Offense" from the Favre/Hasselhoff years. Lot's of short quick passes, some draw plays and a few timely and well executed screen plays.

I'd love to see something resembling it this Sunday.



*KICKASS KEY (FOR THOSE WHO PAY NO ATTENTION):
Holmboy = Holmgren
Hasselhoff = Hasselbeck
Cheesesteak = McCarthy

[Rutnstrut]

I don't recall the opponent or year, but there was a game sort of recently in which the Cheesesteak/Rodgers led Packers ran the no-huddle/hurry-up offense in an effort to bleed and control the clock and thus win the time of possession.

The other recollection I have about that game is that it looked a whole lot like Holmboy's "West Coast Offense" from the Favre/Hasselhoff years. Lot's of short quick passes, some draw plays and a few timely and well executed screen plays.

I'd love to see something resembling it this Sunday.



*KICKASS KEY (FOR THOSE WHO PAY NO ATTENTION):
Holmboy = Holmgren
Hasselhoff = Hasselbeck
Cheesesteak = McCarthy



Don't hold your breath. Cheesesteak has to win by the big passing play.

[mraynrand]

Don't hold your breath. Cheesesteak has to win by the big passing play.

dismissed!

[pbmax]

What makes Stubby heavier, never diminishes, but only after a Packer home loss?

Golden Corral in DePere.

[Pugger]

sacks count vs passing yards...also when he passes up an open underneath guy for a long ball the percentage goes down.

God, I wish he wouldn't do that. :-|

[mraynrand]

Golden Corral Buffet in DePere.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner (with gravy and biscuits, plus seconds).

[Fritz]

I'm so confused. We're bitching constantly about MM not using his second-best offensive weapon in Aaron Jones, that they don't run the ball enough to give him opportunities, yet we're also supposing that MM should come out passing, passing, and passing.

So which is it?

[texaspackerbacker]

Different people taking those two points of view.

I'm with those who favor the passing, passing, passing, and I mean down the field a significant share of the time, not this quick throw pseudo-running game crap.

As for Aaron Jones, maybe they could use him just a bit more, but really, he should be a change of pace back - splitting time with Williams and Montgomery.

[Joemailman]

Different people taking those two points of view.

I'm with those who favor the passing, passing, passing, and I mean down the field a significant share of the time, not this quick throw pseudo-running game crap.

As for Aaron Jones, maybe they could use him just a bit more, but really, he should be a change of pace back - splitting time with Williams and Montgomery.

That's what they've been doing. You like the results?

[Fritz]

My thoughts exactly there. And Tex, don't come back and say that the offensive line sucks and that's why it's not working. Because if that's true, knowing the offensive line isn't capable, why would you just keep doing it? You know it's not going to work.

[mraynrand]

I'm so confused. We're bitching constantly about MM not using his second-best offensive weapon in Aaron Jones, that they don't run the ball enough to give him opportunities, yet we're also supposing that MM should come out passing, passing, and passing.

So which is it?

Whatever works. We are obligated to complain about everything that fails even if it contradicts an unwavering position we’ve held two seconds ago.

[bobblehead]

The Packers play the Rams this Sunday. The Rams are unbeaten & are considered by many to be the best team in the NFC right now.
The Rams are favored by 9 at the moment.

Now then : let's reason together.
That 9 point spread is based upon what the oddsmakers have seen all season from the 2 teams.
If the Packers simply stick to their usual MO, it will most likely result in a loss - death from a thousand cuts.

WHAT IF : McCarthy went ballistically bold?
Here's what he has :
- a future Hall of Fame QB
- what should be a full complement of healthy receivers
- Ty Montgomery, who has not to date been very effectively utilized, and Jamal Williams, an
adept pass blocker
- an offensive line that is capable of pass blocking for at least a short time
- and, of course, a really undependable defense

WHY NOT : Go all-pass (for at least 3 quarters? If you abandon the old traditional thinking of 'trying to establish the run', you eliminate the inevitable 2 yard runs during your drives, which take the ball out of your most talented player's hands.

Spread the Rams defense out. 4 receiver sets + Montgomery or Williams to pass block or occasionally sneak out of the backfield.
Concentrate on patterns of at least 10 yards.
In effect, you are now betting on one of the best quarterbacks to ever play to hit on at least 33% of his attempts to keep moving the chains.
You also force the Rams to pass rush on every offensive play - which has to begin wearing them down to some degree.
If you can somehow have the lead in the 4th quarter, THEN work in a running game.

I keep reading about how the Packers have to get that ol' running game together - but for me, this is simply playing into the hands of that 9 point spread.

LUCK FAVORS THE BOLD!!

That wears down the OL not the DL. Smash mouth running wears out the DL. Watch the patriots establish the run early and then get pass happy after the DL slows down.

I read that MM self scouted and after actually balancing run/pass well thru 7 games has decided he needs to run more. Funny, its the first time in his career I feel we are running enough, just giving carries to the wrong guys.

[bobblehead]

M3 definitely thinks this a majority of the time. But there are many examples* of him bypassing that thought process and doing something creative on offense. If the Rams alarm him enough, I expect something different.

The problem will be concern for Rodgers life and limb. While he is unusually unwilling to commit TE and RB to chip, he will take hugely limiting steps to protect an injured Rodgers.

* Any game versus the Patriots, Williams Wall Vikings, Falcons playoff

The weirdness is when he sees a defense that SHOULD be vulnerable (but survives with a ferocious pass rush) and then gets crushed until he adapts (any Giants game before that 2012, CK era 49ers, Seattle including 2014 playoffs).

I expect something totally different and I will paste this post in the game thread later.

MM pisses me off because when he pisses on himself hard enough to get fired he goes on a streak. I expect we win today and actually go on a tear and become the darling "sexy sleeper" to make the super bowl. Monty will catch screens, Jones will get the bulk of the carries, and ARod will be dominant out of play action. I think we line up 5 WR (4+Graham) and then pull Cobb to the backfield for at least 5 carries this game. You will see creativity and wonder where it has been all year and who that team we saw for the first 7 weeks was?

Yes, MM is nothing if not the ultimate cockroach and he will win today to save his job. He will be smug by the playoffs....probably make the NFCC again before he finds a way to stubby himself into a heartbreaking loss.

[bobblehead]

With Donald and Suh, they can rush with 4 and flood the back with coverage.

I'd consider a few shorter routes in case they jam receivers or go heavy blitz. I'd expect the Rams D to counter with ways to slow things down enough to pressure Rodgers.
Also, I think keeping the Rams offense off the field is the best defense, whether that be with runs or passes. (aka the Indy-era Peyton Manning defense)
You'd think someone capable of completing 60-70% of his passes would be able to complete enough to move the chains. No shame in dumping off to a RB like Jones if they can break a tackle and turn a 2 yd checkdown into a 12 yard run.

And this is why you will see more running than normal and several screen passes. Once the 2 fatties are tired we will start to look deep.

[Bossman641]

If Packers wide up with 4/5 wr every down they need to use the short passing game as an extension of the running game. Just one I'd like to see us throw checkdowns until the other team stops it.

[texaspackerbacker]

That's what they've been doing. You like the results?

I can't say I like the overall results, and no, I won't give the blame to the O Line - they do suck, but they've tended to suck in better times too, virtually never giving Rodgers Brady-quality time to throw. The problem this year and last year has been defense.

What I do like is letting Aaron be Aaron (and I mean Rodgers, not Jones) - letting his mobility provide time for receivers to get open. You guys who like the quick throws can have your way 50 or 60% of the time. You guys who like runs mixed in can get your way maybe 10% as a change of pace. But on around 30 or 40% of the snaps, I want to see Rodgers throwing it down the field - or scrambling or throwing it away if nobody gets open.

With 2 weeks to heal, I think we may see plenty of that today, and if our D can hold the Rams under 40 or so, I think we outscore them.

[pbmax]

I'm so confused. We're bitching constantly about MM not using his second-best offensive weapon in Aaron Jones, that they don't run the ball enough to give him opportunities, yet we're also supposing that MM should come out passing, passing, and passing.

So which is it?

Well, we are fans Fritz, so its situation dependent. Kinda quantum in a way. The criticism exists in two superstates, until an event is observed and then one position/criticism registers.

On the other hand, the best offense would be dominated by Jones, even if they are passing and M3 is just running out of shotgun. He should double the snaps of Williams and Monty. Right now, last two games he has started, they are running too close to equal.

I read somewhere that Monty started versus the Rams and played 3 series, they score 10 points and he was 7 carries for 46 yards. Monty comes in to play TB and its a short drive. Didn't really get going again until Jones goes 33 yards for a TD.

McCarthy wants to send the TE out on a route, not the back. If there is pressure from five, the back stays in. If Jones is the back, there is a higher chance the QB gets hit. Its understandable. So he needs to change the offense a little bit (mostly protection) to keep Jones in the game.

If the non-scripted part of the game was lights out, I would not maintain this. But the normal offense has been terrible. Right now, Jones in the lineup with whatever adjustments need to be made for protection.

[Fritz]

Well, we are fans Fritz, so its situation dependent. Kinda quantum in a way. The criticism exists in two superstates, until an event is observed and then one position/criticism registers.

On the other hand, the best offense would be dominated by Jones, even if they are passing and M3 is just running out of shotgun. He should double the snaps of Williams and Monty. Right now, last two games he has started, they are running too close to equal.

I read somewhere that Monty started versus the Rams and played 3 series, they score 10 points and he was 7 carries for 46 yards. Monty comes in to play TB and its a short drive. Didn't really get going again until Jones goes 33 yards for a TD.

McCarthy wants to send the TE out on a route, not the back. If there is pressure from five, the back stays in. If Jones is the back, there is a higher chance the QB gets hit. Its understandable. So he needs to change the offense a little bit (mostly protection) to keep Jones in the game.

If the non-scripted part of the game was lights out, I would not maintain this. But the normal offense has been terrible. Right now, Jones in the lineup with whatever adjustments need to be made for protection.



I have often read that blocking is mostly about willingness. Can Jones be taught to block? Does he not want to? If the guy could or would block better there would be no discussion of who should play.

[Pugger]

Different people taking those two points of view.

I'm with those who favor the passing, passing, passing, and I mean down the field a significant share of the time, not this quick throw pseudo-running game crap.

As for Aaron Jones, maybe they could use him just a bit more, but really, he should be a change of pace back - splitting time with Williams and Montgomery.

If Jones was better at picking up blitzers he would play a lot more. I hope he can improve in this area quick.

[pbmax]

I have often read that blocking is mostly about willingness. Can Jones be taught to block? Does he not want to? If the guy could or would block better there would be no discussion of who should play.

Willingness is one part. Understanding where he needs to be is the other. It took Brandon Jackson three years to master the where and when. By then, he was calling out protections.

The other thing here, and the one that Packer Twitter points to more often than we do here, is that he was an awful receiver out of the backfield last year. Lots of drops. Probably plays a role too.

[texaspackerbacker]

I'm coming around to the point of view that Jones is a better RB than Williams, but there still should be maybe a 60/40 or 70/30 rotation between the two. And more importantly, the Packers HAVE TO BE an extremely pass first team - using running plays mainly as a change of pace.

[Sparkey]

I think it is more awareness, in regards to blitz pickups. You can't think about what to do or you will be late. It has to be reactionary and that only comes with practice and repetitions.

[Patler]

The other thing here, and the one that Packer Twitter points to more often than we do here, is that he was an awful receiver out of the backfield last year. Lots of drops. Probably plays a role too.

He also catches the ball awkwardly and adjusts to the throw awkwardly even when he does catch it, not giving himself a chance to get moving quickly after securing the ball. This was highlighted Sunday when he sort of twisted his body without moving his feet to make a catch. It caused him to come to a dead stop, and he was tackled in the open field by the only defender in the area. The announcer commented about it being a good throw, but an awkward adjustment by Jones, not giving himself a chance to avoid the tackler in the open field. That play could have gone a long way with a more natural receiver.