What's the roster makeover going to look like, who stays/goes??

[wist43]

On defense you have to start at the LB position.

Gone for sure: Perry, Morrison, Ryan, the stopgap signees.

Should be gone: Matthews, Fackrell

DL was a serious disappointment this year. Only guys back for sure are Clark and Daniels.

-----------------------------------

On offense... have to rebuild the OL.

Back are Bacteria and Linsley.

Gone?? Pretty much everyone else will have to fight for a job.

Cobb is gone.

------------

That's a lot of cap space opened up... two 1st round picks, the rookies develop (Alexander, Jackson, the Wr's), sign some key FA's, give Rodgers some hope and turn him around...

I think we can turn it around fairly quickly.

[bobblehead]

We can. I think Fackrell is under contract and no reason to cut him.

On D we are going to need 1 starter at OLB. 1 starter at ILB. 1 starter at S (probably on the roster king/jackson) Resign wilkerson and cut brice so wilkerson stays healthy. That gives us 4 DL out of 5 (lowery stays).

On O we need another real WR. And as you said, 3/5 OL. I really believe they go WR/G/OLB with first 3 picks. Would need to nail all 3 to turn this around in one year. Tonyan might develop. Really need a RT.

[texaspackerbacker]

Clark, Daniels, Lowery, and Adams should stay on the D Line. I doubt they bring back Wilkerson.

At OLB, Fackrell and Gilbert are decent and cheap. I think Matthews re-signs for a lot lower salary, but maybe not if somebody else overpays for him. Perry should be gone for sure.

At ILB, there's nothing wrong with Martinez if we can pair him up with somebody decent. I'd give Ryan another chance as a back up if he is cheap and healthy.

We have quality and quantity at Corner - King still is worth keeping, Jackson should still develop, Tony Brown gets at least a shot at staying. Breeland was good when he was healthy too.

Tramon has been decent at both Corner and Safety and I still think Josh Jones has shown enough to keep. Campbell has shown enough to be a decent back up and special teams player also.

On offense, I don't really like Kizer, but whatever - we're screwed with anybody but Rodgers anyway.

We could use a third RB.

Need another WR? Why? Even if Cobb is gone - and somebody undoubtedly will over pay him, I could Adams, MVS, St. Brown, Moore, Kumerow, and maybe Davis. One star right now, two very decent and improving, two with plenty of potential, and one quality kick returner. That's six. Any more and you cut somebody decent.

TE: I think they keep Graham although I guess he goes way up in cost so maybe not. Tonyan looks like a keeper. Kendrick might come back cheap but I doubt it, and Marcedes, who knows/who cares.

And then there's the O Line ....... we're finally gonna find out whether they really are lame-assed players or whether Campen was a shitty O Line coach. My guess, even though I don't like it, is that at least three or four will start opening day next season. Several fairly high draft picks will be there, but will start out as back ups.

Special teams: Crosby ought to be gone. What is it, $5.7 million he makes or something like that? A bunch of teams have picked up UDFAs who get a million or less and kick better than him. Scott I think stays and gets better.

Somebody said in one of these threads only 5 or 6 players on the whole team are worth keeping; That's just stupid - or at least hyperbole. We need some high quality - getting lucky for once with some draft picks - LB, Safety, O Line, etc. but not really much beyond that.

[texaspackerbacker]

Clark, Daniels, Lowery, and Adams should stay on the D Line. I doubt they bring back Wilkerson.

At OLB, Fackrell and Gilbert are decent and cheap. I think Matthews re-signs for a lot lower salary, but maybe not if somebody else overpays for him. Perry should be gone for sure.

At ILB, there's nothing wrong with Martinez if we can pair him up with somebody decent. I'd give Ryan another chance as a back up if he is cheap and healthy.

We have quality and quantity at Corner - King still is worth keeping, Jackson should still develop, Tony Brown gets at least a shot at staying. Breeland was good when he was healthy too.

Tramon has been decent at both Corner and Safety and I still think Josh Jones has shown enough to keep. Campbell has shown enough to be a decent back up and special teams player also.

On offense, I don't really like Kizer, but whatever - we're screwed with anybody but Rodgers anyway.

We could use a third RB.

Need another WR? Why? Even if Cobb is gone - and somebody undoubtedly will over pay him, I could Adams, MVS, St. Brown, Moore, Kumerow, and maybe Davis. One star right now, two very decent and improving, two with plenty of potential, and one quality kick returner. That's six. Any more and you cut somebody decent.

TE: I think they keep Graham although I guess he goes way up in cost so maybe not. Tonyan looks like a keeper. Kendrick might come back cheap but I doubt it, and Marcedes, who knows/who cares.

And then there's the O Line ....... we're finally gonna find out whether they really are lame-assed players or whether Campen was a shitty O Line coach. My guess, even though I don't like it, is that at least three or four will start opening day next season. Several fairly high draft picks will be there, but will start out as back ups.

Special teams: Crosby ought to be gone. What is it, $5.7 million he makes or something like that? A bunch of teams have picked up UDFAs who get a million or less and kick better than him. Scott I think stays and gets better.

Somebody said in one of these threads only 5 or 6 players on the whole team are worth keeping; That's just stupid - or at least hyperbole. We need some high quality - getting lucky for once with some draft picks - LB, Safety, O Line, etc. but not really much beyond that.

[ThunderDan]

Somebody said in one of these threads only 5 or 6 players on the whole team are worth keeping; That's just stupid - or at least hyperbole. We need some high quality - getting lucky for once with some draft picks - LB, Safety, O Line, etc. but not really much beyond that.

It was me and that isn't what I said but no surprise from you.

I said there were 5-6 locks on the team next year. ARod, Adams, Bakh, Linsley, Clark, Alexander, the punter.

I also said 35-40 of the players will be back next year. Not a big surprise if turn over 25% of our roster that is only 13 players. I would expect maybe slightly higher this year. If I count correctly we have 23 players on our roster that weren't on the roster last year.

[pbmax]

I wonder if changing the LB coach (Moss) will change the look of the linebackers?

[Deputy Nutz]

QB: Aaron "The Coach Killer" Rodgers, Kizer
RB: Jones, Williams, draftee or free agent
WR: Adams, Valdez-Scantling, St. Brown, Moore, Kumerow, draftee free agent
TE: Graham, Tonyan Draftee free agent
OL: Linsley, Bakhtiari, Taylor draftees, free agents

DL: Daniels, Clark, Lowery, Adams, draftee or FA
ILB: Martinez, Burks Draftees, free agents
OLB: Fackrell, Gilbert, Draftees, Free agents
DBs Josh Jones, Jackson, King, Alexander, Draftees, free agents

The defensive backfield was overhauled over the past two years but there is now a significant hole at the safety position. The Packers will also have a hole at outside linebacker with a serious lack of depth and playmakers. Inside linebacker is also very lean. The Packers will have to spend or draft to fix. The Packers are in decent shape along the defensive line. The real hole on this team is on the offensive line. Bulaga has nothing left. His legs are shot. Spriggs has been a complete disappointment and should be cut. The Packers have gotten very little from Taylor and Bell, and McCray. the other issue is Bakthairi, he is never healthy and also has leg problems, constantly. The Packers misses at the offensive line position in the previous drafts are coming back to hunt them.

[woodbuck27]

We can. I think Fackrell is under contract and no reason to cut him.

On D we are going to need 1 starter at OLB. 1 starter at ILB. 1 starter at S (probably on the roster king/jackson) Resign wilkerson and cut brice so wilkerson stays healthy. That gives us 4 DL out of 5 (lowery stays).

On O we need another real WR. And as you said, 3/5 OL. I really believe they go WR/G/OLB with first 3 picks. Would need to nail all 3 to turn this around in one year. Tonyan might develop. Really need a RT.

Good thoughts.

We need a very serious Pass Rush.

[mraynrand]

Good thoughts.

We need a very serious Pass Rush.

Tom Coughlin smiled.

[Carolina_Packer]

On defense you have to start at the LB position.

Gone for sure: Perry, Morrison, Ryan, the stopgap signees.

Should be gone: Matthews, Fackrell

DL was a serious disappointment this year. Only guys back for sure are Clark and Daniels.

-----------------------------------

On offense... have to rebuild the OL.

Back are Bacteria and Linsley.

Gone?? Pretty much everyone else will have to fight for a job.

Cobb is gone.

------------

That's a lot of cap space opened up... two 1st round picks, the rookies develop (Alexander, Jackson, the Wr's), sign some key FA's, give Rodgers some hope and turn him around...

I think we can turn it around fairly quickly.

Look at the Bears. 2017 worst in NFC North, 2018 are in first place looking good, save for Chase Daniel having to play.

My hope is that they can fix what ails the O-line, or bring in some concepts that allow Rodgers to get the ball out more quickly. We also need to use Jones way more than MM did.

The defense needs a make-over. There are going to be a lot of holes to fill as you mentioned.

The thing I'm most hopeful of is that BG can acquire more talent via free agency to fill some of these holes, and hopefully find enough impact players to fit under the cap to help while developing the next wave of young talent. They just have to be the right impact players at the right cap number. This year, obviously, they still had a lot of rookies to bring along at DB and WR, plus all the injuries and personnel changes at safety. Earl Thomas would look nice in Green and Gold and could be the second coming of Woodson for the Packers, if he's healthy enough.

[wist43]

QB: Aaron "The Coach Killer" Rodgers, Kizer
RB: Jones, Williams, draftee or free agent
WR: Adams, Valdez-Scantling, St. Brown, Moore, Kumerow, draftee free agent
TE: Graham, Tonyan Draftee free agent
OL: Linsley, Bakhtiari, Taylor draftees, free agents

DL: Daniels, Clark, Lowery, Adams, draftee or FA
ILB: Martinez, Burks Draftees, free agents
OLB: Fackrell, Gilbert, Draftees, Free agents
DBs Josh Jones, Jackson, King, Alexander, Draftees, free agents

The defensive backfield was overhauled over the past two years but there is now a significant hole at the safety position. The Packers will also have a hole at outside linebacker with a serious lack of depth and playmakers. Inside linebacker is also very lean. The Packers will have to spend or draft to fix. The Packers are in decent shape along the defensive line. The real hole on this team is on the offensive line. Bulaga has nothing left. His legs are shot. Spriggs has been a complete disappointment and should be cut. The Packers have gotten very little from Taylor and Bell, and McCray. the other issue is Bakthairi, he is never healthy and also has leg problems, constantly. The Packers misses at the offensive line position in the previous drafts are coming back to hunt them.

That's a lot of "draftees, free agents", but I agree... Ted's drafts the past few years have been abysmal, and set the team back considerably.

Will have to look ahead at who is going to hit the FA market... what might make sense for targets to sign. Can't fill all the holes, but with a Grade A off season, I think we can get back to respectability pretty quickly.

I really want to see Gute focus on improving the LB Corp. If Fackrell is starting next year, we're in big trouble again. On offense, besides the OL, I would like to see a "scatback" Tarik Cohen type of RB added to the roster.

Beyond the new look roster, everything will depend on who Gute taps to be head coach... he needs to hit a homerun... and I think we're all in agreement that guy needs to be an offensive innovator.

[QBME]

I wonder if changing the LB coach (Moss) will change the look of the linebackers?

Good thought. What has become of Winston? At one point he looked to be fast tracking to something bigger and better.

[wist43]

The LB position is the one position that I think you have to give a pass to the position coaches, b/c the talent simply isn't there.

Unless of course Moss was party to the selecting of that substandard talent.

This is one area I think Gute needs to look very closely at, i.e. how scouts in the organization graded players we picked that are poor players, and how they graded players picked by other teams that turned out to be good players.

It is self scouting and evaluating your process that should be happening every year.

[KYPack]

QB: Aaron "The Coach Killer" Rodgers, Kizer
RB: Jones, Williams, draftee or free agent
WR: Adams, Valdez-Scantling, St. Brown, Moore, Kumerow, draftee free agent
TE: Graham, Tonyan Draftee free agent
OL: Linsley, Bakhtiari, Taylor draftees, free agents

DL: Daniels, Clark, Lowery, Adams, draftee or FA
ILB: Martinez, Burks Draftees, free agents
OLB: Fackrell, Gilbert, Draftees, Free agents
DBs Josh Jones, Jackson, King, Alexander, Draftees, free agents

The defensive backfield was overhauled over the past two years but there is now a significant hole at the safety position. The Packers will also have a hole at outside linebacker with a serious lack of depth and playmakers. Inside linebacker is also very lean. The Packers will have to spend or draft to fix. The Packers are in decent shape along the defensive line. The real hole on this team is on the offensive line. Bulaga has nothing left. His legs are shot. Spriggs has been a complete disappointment and should be cut. The Packers have gotten very little from Taylor and Bell, and McCray. the other issue is Bakthairi, he is never healthy and also has leg problems, constantly. The Packers misses at the offensive line position in the previous drafts are coming back to hunt them.

That's a decent cut at the roster. Lane Taylor, Mike Daniels, & other players regressed this season. I'd like to see the "new" coaching staff coach some guys up this next year. I know Bulaga is a wreck, but we've had nothing to replace him. McCray has a little potential, but he has also been non productive. We will need to prime the pump with some vet FA's that can turn around the OLine and provide depth on the DLine.

[wist43]

Did a little looking at the FA LB/Edge guys...

CJ Mosley, Lawrence (Dallas), Clowney, Anthony Barr top the list. Didn't look to be much OL talent out there, then again I've been too busy to keep up. I agree we need to move on from Crosby too.

We should be picking somewhere around 10, and NO pick will be around 30.

[Bretsky]

Did a little looking at the FA LB/Edge guys...

CJ Mosley, Lawrence (Dallas), Clowney, Anthony Barr top the list. Didn't look to be much OL talent out there, then again I've been too busy to keep up. I agree we need to move on from Crosby too.

We should be picking somewhere around 10, and NO pick will be around 30.


Unlikely the Ravens are letting CJ Mosley go; letting talent like that slide away when it's starting in your face would be like......Not Drafting TJ Watt :))))))

Pass rushers will be hard to come by.

I think they could and really should focus on using FA to find at least one starter on the OL

I'd also be game to go with numbers at LB; we need to get some speed, athletic ability and talent there

[Bretsky]

Did a little looking at the FA LB/Edge guys...

CJ Mosley, Lawrence (Dallas), Clowney, Anthony Barr top the list. Didn't look to be much OL talent out there, then again I've been too busy to keep up. I agree we need to move on from Crosby too.

We should be picking somewhere around 10, and NO pick will be around 30.



WHY in the H would we move on from Crosby; he's one of the few reliable players we still have. Let's not create another hole in our roster. Plus you should love him; he helped get rid of your buddy MM ...lol

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'd like to see Anthony Barr here. He's been miscast in the Vikings scheme.

[Bretsky]

completely agree on Barr; he'd be a great fit in GB

[wist43]

WHY in the H would we move on from Crosby; he's one of the few reliable players we still have. Let's not create another hole in our roster. Plus you should love him; he helped get rid of your buddy MM ...lol

That's some pretty convoluted logic there B... and for the record, I was one of the last to jump onboard the fire MM bandwagon. Disappointed that it had to come to that, but the writing was on the wall. It was time.

I'm more hopeful now that he's gone... as you know, I'm always hopeful and optimistic - now I'm even more hopeful :)

[Bretsky]

lol; and normally you are first to start the campaign to get rid of the coach :))))) Although way late to the GM outings.
I often think nobody pays any attention to anything I post; but then when I get called out all the time for being wrong I find out a few actually do.
BTW, how about TJ Watt ?

[wist43]

lol; and normally you are first to start the campaign to get rid of the coach :))))) Although way late to the GM outings.
I often think nobody pays any attention to anything I post; but then when I get called out all the time for being wrong I find out a few actually do.
BTW, how about TJ Watt ?

I can afford to miss on a guy like Watt, b/c I hit on so many other front seven guys... my "draft this guy" list looks pretty good compared to TTs.

Besides, jury is still out on King... if he can ever stay healthy, we'll have something.

[pbmax]

WHY in the H would we move on from Crosby; he's one of the few reliable players we still have. Let's not create another hole in our roster. Plus you should love him; he helped get rid of your buddy MM ...lol

Because he is a bottom half of the League kicker? Cutoff here is 2018 season and more than 10 XPAttempts, to weed out the part-timers. You will need to scroll down into the 20s to find Mason's FG% this year.




Game Game Scor Scor Scor Scor Scor Scor Scor Scor
Rk Player Year Tm G GS TD XPM XPA XP% FGM FGA FG% Pts
1 Matt Bryant 2018 ATL 9 0 0 20 21 95.2 15 15 100.0 65
2 Aldrick Rosas 2018 NYG 12 0 0 21 21 100.0 26 27 96.3 99
3 Robbie Gould 2018 SFO 12 0 0 20 22 90.9 23 24 95.8 89
4 Wil Lutz 2018 NOR 12 0 0 44 45 97.8 23 24 95.8 113
5 Harrison Butker 2018 KAN 12 0 0 51 55 92.7 19 20 95.0 108
6 Jason Sanders 2018 MIA 12 0 0 26 27 96.3 16 17 94.1 74
7 Jason Myers 2018 NYJ 12 0 0 21 22 95.5 28 30 93.3 105
8 Justin Tucker 2018 BAL 12 0 0 28 29 96.6 25 27 92.6 103
9 Mike Badgley 2018 LAC 6 0 0 18 19 94.7 10 11 90.9 48
10 Josh Lambo 2018 JAX 12 0 0 18 19 94.7 19 21 90.5 75
11 Greg Zuerlein 2018 LAR 7 0 0 23 24 95.8 19 21 90.5 80
12 Steven Hauschka 2018 BUF 12 0 0 15 16 93.8 17 19 89.5 66
13 Cairo Santos 2018 2TM 5 0 0 16 17 94.1 8 9 88.9 40
14 Matt Prater 2018 DET 12 0 0 23 23 100.0 23 26 88.5 92
15 Graham Gano 2018 CAR 12 0 0 30 33 90.9 14 16 87.5 72
16 Ryan Succop 2018 TEN 12 0 0 20 21 95.2 21 24 87.5 83
17 Dustin Hopkins 2018 WAS 12 0 0 23 24 95.8 20 23 87.0 83
18 Brett Maher 2018 DAL 12 0 0 23 24 95.8 24 28 85.7 95
19 Kaimi Fairbairn 2018 HOU 12 0 0 29 30 96.7 29 34 85.3 116
20 Stephen Gostkowski 2018 NWE 12 0 0 37 37 100.0 22 26 84.6 103
21 Greg Joseph 2018 CLE 10 0 0 16 18 88.9 11 13 84.6 49
22 Jake Elliott 2018 PHI 12 0 0 23 23 100.0 19 23 82.6 80
23 Adam Vinatieri 2018 IND 12 0 0 32 34 94.1 17 21 81.0 83
24 Sebastian Janikowski 2018 SEA 12 0 0 37 39 94.9 16 20 80.0 85
25 Brandon McManus 2018 DEN 12 0 0 30 30 100.0 16 20 80.0 78
26 Cody Parkey 2018 CHI 12 0 0 35 37 94.6 19 24 79.2 92
27 Mason Crosby 2018 GNB 12 0 0 27 29 93.1 22 29 75.9 93
28 Chandler Catanzaro 2018 TAM 9 0 0 23 27 85.2 11 15 73.3 56
29 Dan Bailey 2018 MIN 10 0 0 20 21 95.2 16 22 72.7 68
30 Chris Boswell 2018 PIT 12 0 0 36 41 87.8 10 14 71.4 66
31 Randy Bullock 2018 CIN 12 0 0 34 36 94.4 10 14 71.4 64
32 Daniel Carlson 2018 2TM 8 0 0 17 17 100.0 10 14 71.4 47
33 Caleb Sturgis 2018 LAC 6 0 0 9 15 60.0 9 13 69.2 36
34 Phil Dawson 2018 ARI 10 0 0 15 15 100.0 5 8 62.5 30
35 Sam Ficken 2018 LAR 2 0 0 10 10 100.0 1 3 33.3 13


Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&pos%5B%5D=k&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=xpa&c1comp=gt&c1val=10&c5val=1.0&order_by=fg_perc&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#results)
Generated 12/4/2018.

[mraynrand]

Crosby isn't much off his career average of 80%, and he's on pace to attempt as many over 50 and over 40 FGs as any year in his career except maybe one. Also, that one horrible games does skew things. Still, I get that he's had notably clutch misses.

[pbmax]

Crosby isn't much off his career average of 80%, and he's on pace to attempt as many over 50 and over 40 FGs as any year in his career except maybe one. Also, that one horrible games does skew things. Still, I get that he's had notably clutch misses.

I'll run the numbers, but even at 80%, I don't think that gets him in the top half of the League anymore. Its true that McCarthy loved nothing more than long field goals at the end of the half and games.

[pbmax]

OK, here is a four year window. Had to attempt at least 40 extra points, to be sure we are looking at full time guys. 36 qualify, Crosby is 30th in percentage converted.




Game Game Scor Scor Scor Scor Scor Scor Scor Scor
Rk Player From To Tm G GS TD XPM XPA XP% FGM FGA FG% Pts
1 Josh Brown 2015 2016 NYG 21 0 0 53 54 98.1 41 44 93.2 176
2 Robbie Gould 2015 2018 TOT 54 0 0 96 104 92.3 105 114 92.1 411
3 Harrison Butker 2017 2018 KAN 25 0 0 79 83 95.2 57 62 91.9 250
4 Justin Tucker 2015 2018 RAV 60 0 0 123 124 99.2 130 143 90.9 513
5 Steven Hauschka 2015 2018 TOT 60 0 0 113 124 91.1 108 120 90.0 437
6 Matt Bryant 2015 2018 ATL 52 0 0 137 139 98.6 97 109 89.0 428
7 Stephen Gostkowski 2015 2018 NWE 60 0 0 180 185 97.3 119 134 88.8 537
8 Matt Prater 2015 2018 DET 60 0 0 130 136 95.6 106 121 87.6 448
9 Chris Boswell 2015 2018 PIT 55 0 0 135 143 94.4 95 109 87.2 420
10 Wil Lutz 2016 2018 NOR 44 0 0 140 145 96.6 82 94 87.2 386
11 Ryan Succop 2015 2018 OTI 60 0 0 119 126 94.4 92 106 86.8 395
12 Adam Vinatieri 2015 2018 CLT 59 0 0 130 137 94.9 98 113 86.7 424
13 Graham Gano 2015 2018 CAR 60 0 0 151 163 92.6 103 120 85.8 460
14 Josh Lambo 2015 2018 TOT 54 0 0 110 121 90.9 90 105 85.7 380
15 Greg Zuerlein 2015 2018 RAM 51 0 0 116 121 95.9 96 113 85.0 404
16 Cairo Santos 2015 2018 TOT 42 0 0 105 111 94.6 73 86 84.9 324
17 Aldrick Rosas 2017 2018 NYG 28 0 0 41 44 93.2 44 52 84.6 173
18 Dustin Hopkins 2015 2018 WAS 51 0 0 116 122 95.1 93 110 84.5 395
19 Jason Myers 2015 2018 TOT 50 0 0 97 110 88.2 92 109 84.4 373
20 Kai Forbath 2015 2017 TOT 34 0 0 79 88 89.8 57 68 83.8 250
21 Randy Bullock 2015 2018 TOT 43 0 0 96 104 92.3 55 66 83.3 261
22 Jake Elliott 2017 2018 PHI 27 0 0 62 65 95.4 45 54 83.3 197
23 Kaimi Fairbairn 2017 2018 HTX 28 0 0 61 65 93.8 49 59 83.1 208
24 Dan Bailey 2015 2018 TOT 54 0 0 117 120 97.5 88 106 83.0 381
25 Mike Nugent 2015 2018 TOT 40 0 0 90 100 90.0 63 76 82.9 279
26 Cody Parkey 2015 2018 TOT 45 0 0 88 94 93.6 63 76 82.9 277
27 Nick Novak 2015 2017 TOT 36 0 0 68 74 91.9 62 75 82.7 254
28 Phil Dawson 2015 2018 TOT 58 0 0 91 96 94.8 79 96 82.3 328
29 Caleb Sturgis 2015 2018 TOT 36 0 0 75 85 88.2 65 79 82.3 270
30 Mason Crosby 2015 2018 GNB 60 0 0 140 147 95.2 87 106 82.1 401
31 Brandon McManus 2015 2018 DEN 60 0 0 124 126 98.4 99 121 81.8 421
32 Chandler Catanzaro 2015 2018 TOT 57 0 0 148 161 91.9 85 104 81.7 403
33 Sebastian Janikowski 2015 2018 TOT 44 0 0 112 117 95.7 66 81 81.5 310
34 Dan Carpenter 2015 2016 BUF 32 0 0 74 85 87.1 42 52 80.8 200
35 Giorgio Tavecchio 2017 2018 TOT 19 0 0 41 42 97.6 21 26 80.8 104
36 Blair Walsh 2015 2017 TOT 41 0 0 85 94 90.4 67 84 79.8 286
37 Nick Folk 2015 2017 TOT 28 0 0 50 54 92.6 46 58 79.3 188
38 Andrew Franks 2015 2016 MIA 32 0 0 74 78 94.9 29 37 78.4 161
39 Connor Barth 2015 2017 TOT 38 0 0 73 75 97.3 52 67 77.6 229


Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2015&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&pos%5B%5D=k&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=xpa&c1comp=gt&c1val=40&c5val=1.0&order_by=fg_perc&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#results)
Generated 12/4/2018.

[pbmax]

Gonna need new database search tools to pull out the long attempts.

[mraynrand]

Gonna need new database search tools to pull out the long attempts.

I just did a quick guesstimation by inspecting his career page

[call_me_ishmael]

I like Mason Crosby and would be fine either way but I also don't see a super important reason to keep him knowing he's going to be on year 13 before when you compete. It seems like kickers consistently get better and better so why not consider finding taking a shot at a cheaper option? Winning close games isn't the goal next year. That said, I don't really care either way.

[Fritz]

I wonder what the cap hit would be if they cut Perry. Guy can play the run well, but for the money they're paying him, he needs to get to the QB more than five or six times a season. Oh, and stay on the field. I think he's just never going to be able to be healthy, but I think you don't have much else, so maybe you keep him to see if maybe, just maybe, you can squeeze one semi-healthy year out of him while you re-tool?

I think Matthews is worth re-signing, as long as it's not ridiculous. I do think, if you draft a couple of young guys outside to makeover the position, that he would do well inside. He can blitz inside, and if he gets on board with it, he could thrive. Maybe with Martinez being solid back there Matthews's freelancing would be less dangerous.

I see no value in Graham at all - he can't seem to make the tough catches, and all his catches are getting tough because he can't get open any more. He's a shell, a ghost.

I wouldn't just cut Spriggs - they've invested so much in him, timewise, unless he's obviously a bomb to the coaching staff, I'd give him one more shot, so he doesn't go off to some other organization and start for them solidly for the next five years. But they do need to draft some offensive linemen.

And, of course, they need someone who can play deep safety. Looks like Josh Jones won't be that guy. He doesn't look, either, like one of those "interchangeable" safeties that I read Pettine likes. He's a LOS kind of guy.

The beauty of having such a talent shortage is that you're more likely to choose the BPA when you draft, because you have so many needs your board's most talented player is more likely to intersect with one of those needs. When you have a more evenly talented roster, it's hard to go strictly BPA - it'd be hard to draft another all-pro at a position where you've already got a couple when you think you might be one outside linebacker or cornerback away from a Super Bowl. I think Ted succumbed to this - early on in his tenure, it was easier to go BPA (except for the Rodgers pick), and Ted had some wonderful drafts. But as the talent level went up, he started shooting for that one player to get them over the hump - that one defensive lineman or outside linebacker (Jerel Worthy, Datone Jones) or corner (Randall), that one missing piece. Thompson didn't bomb everything, as so many here seem to think - thanksted for Kenny Clark, maybe Kevin King, Blake Martinez (Wist is wrong on this guy, sorry), and Aaron Jones. But I do think he started trying to make his draft boards match his needs more and more as time went on.

It's a tough business. The outrage in 2005 when Thompsons drafted a QB whose stock had dropped like a rock when they already had a HOF quarterback and were only a player or two away from a SB was intense and powerful. If only he'd been able to keep drafting that way.

[mraynrand]

early on in his tenure, it was easier to go BPA (except for the Rodgers pick)

Seems to me Rodgers was a BPA pick, all the way.

[beveaux1]

The beauty of having such a talent shortage is that you're more likely to choose the BPA when you draft, because you have so many needs your board's most talented player is more likely to intersect with one of those needs. When you have a more evenly talented roster, it's hard to go strictly BPA - it'd be hard to draft another all-pro at a position where you've already got a couple when you think you might be one outside linebacker or cornerback away from a Super Bowl. I think Ted succumbed to this - early on in his tenure, it was easier to go BPA (except for the Rodgers pick), and Ted had some wonderful drafts. But as the talent level went up, he started shooting for that one player to get them over the hump - that one defensive lineman or outside linebacker (Jerel Worthy, Datone Jones) or corner (Randall), that one missing piece. Thompson didn't bomb everything, as so many here seem to think - thanksted for Kenny Clark, maybe Kevin King, Blake Martinez (Wist is wrong on this guy, sorry), and Aaron Jones. But I do think he started trying to make his draft boards match his needs more and more as time went on.

It's a tough business. The outrage in 2005 when Thompsons drafted a QB whose stock had dropped like a rock when they already had a HOF quarterback and were only a player or two away from a SB was intense and powerful. If only he'd been able to keep drafting that way.

Ted was a very good GM for around 10 years with good drafts and a healthy relationship with MM and success on the field. His last 3 or 4 drafts were not good and we did not use free agency to supplement the poor drafts. Overall, he was deserving of being in the Packer Hall of Fame, but a change was needed when he stepped down.

The same can be said for MM. He was highly successful for about 10 years and navigated a difficult transition from Favre to Rodgers. He is deserving of being in the Packer Hall of Fame, but again, a change was needed. Let’s hope that Murphy can be successful in navigating that change.

[pbmax]

I think Ted succumbed [edit: subscribed?] to this - early on in his tenure, it was easier to go BPA (except for the Rodgers pick), and Ted had some wonderful drafts. But as the talent level went up, he started shooting for that one player to get them over the hump - that one defensive lineman or outside linebacker (Jerel Worthy, Datone Jones) or corner (Randall), that one missing piece. Thompson didn't bomb everything, as so many here seem to think - thanksted for Kenny Clark, maybe Kevin King, Blake Martinez (Wist is wrong on this guy, sorry), and Aaron Jones. But I do think he started trying to make his draft boards match his needs more and more as time went on.

It's a tough business. The outrage in 2005 when Thompsons drafted a QB whose stock had dropped like a rock when they already had a HOF quarterback and were only a player or two away from a SB was intense and powerful. If only he'd been able to keep drafting that way.

The irony of Ted is that, for him, he was in win now mode since the 2012 draft. Maybe a reach on Sherrod in the 1st in 2011. He was just not normally going to move into FA unless he got all the bells and whistles (position need, position rarity, no compensation pick lost, good deal on great or formerly great player).

Everyone wanted him all in. And he was, for Ted. but when the drafts stopped happening, he was dead in the water.

[pbmax]

I wonder what the cap hit would be if they cut Perry. Guy can play the run well, but for the money they're paying him, he needs to get to the QB more than five or six times a season. Oh, and stay on the field. I think he's just never going to be able to be healthy, but I think you don't have much else, so maybe you keep him to see if maybe, just maybe, you can squeeze one semi-healthy year out of him while you re-tool?


http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/37824/nick-perrys-contract-with-packers-not-as-monstrous-as-it-seems

If Demovsky is right about the roster bonus not being guaranteed and being due the third of fifth day of the new League year, Packers could survive the hit by spread it out over two years.

To get out of 2019 they take an $11,100,000 cap hit with a cap savings of $14,700,000. But they are not going to want to pay that cash, which reduces the cap savings to $11,000,000. Still doable, even more doable if they designate him June 1 cut and spread the dead cap money out over two years.

If he survives 2019, cutting him in 2020 is easy: POTENTIAL OUT: 2020, 3 YR, $38,775,000; $7,400,000 DEAD CAP which could be easily absorbed by the 2020 cap savings.

[pbmax]

OK, here we go with the Quinquennial Reevaluation of Mason Crosby

Baseline team stats for 2018. Boo formatting errors.



Percentage Of Field Goals Made Leaders
FIELD GOAL EXTRA POINTS
RK TEAM FGM FGA PCT LNG 1-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50+ XPM XPA PCT
1 Atlanta 20 20 100.0 57 0-0 4-4 2-2 8-8 6-6 28 29 96.6
2 NY Giants 26 27 96.3 57 0-0 7-7 11-11 4-4 4-5 21 21 100
3 New Orlean 23 24 95.8 54 1-1 4-4 7-7 9-10 2-2 44 45 97.8
San Franci 23 24 95.8 53 0-0 6-6 8-8 7-8 2-2 20 22 90.9
5 Kansas Cit 19 20 95.0 50 0-0 7-7 5-5 6-6 1-2 51 55 92.7
6 Miami 16 17 94.1 50 0-0 5-5 3-3 7-8 1-1 26 27 96.3
7 NY Jets 28 30 93.3 56 0-0 2-2 12-13 8-8 6-7 21 22 95.5
8 Baltimore 25 27 92.6 56 0-0 8-8 5-5 8-10 4-4 28 29 96.6
9 Jacksonvil 19 21 90.5 57 0-0 4-4 8-8 3-4 4-5 18 19 94.7
10 Buffalo 17 19 89.5 54 0-0 2-2 5-5 6-6 4-6 15 16 93.8
11 Detroit 23 26 88.5 54 0-0 8-8 11-11 1-2 3-5 23 23 100
12 Tennessee 21 24 87.5 54 0-0 4-5 10-10 4-5 3-4 20 21 95.2
Carolina 14 16 87.5 63 0-0 3-3 4-5 4-4 3-4 30 33 90.9
14 Washingto 20 23 87.0 56 0-0 5-5 5-5 7-9 3-4 23 24 95.8
15 Dallas 24 28 85.7 55 0-0 7-7 6-7 7-9 4-5 23 24 95.8
16 Houston 29 34 85.3 54 1-1 7-7 9-9 9-12 3-5 29 30 96.7
17 New Engla 22 26 84.6 52 0-0 9-9 7-7 4-5 2-5 37 37 100
18 LA Rams 26 31 83.9 56 1-1 9-10 11-11 3-6 2-3 39 41 95.1
19 Philadelp 19 23 82.6 56 0-0 6-6 7-8 5-6 1-3 23 23 100
20 Indianapo 17 21 81.0 54 0-0 6-6 6-7 3-4 2-4 32 34 94.1
21 Denver 16 20 80.0 53 0-0 3-3 6-6 5-5 2-6 30 30 100
Oakland 20 25 80.0 52 0-0 7-7 3-3 8-11 2-4 20 21 95.2
Seattle 16 20 80.0 56 0-0 1-1 6-7 6-7 3-5 37 39 94.9
24 Chicago 19 24 79.2 50 0-0 5-5 5-6 8-11 1-2 35 37 94.6
LA Charge 19 24 79.2 49 0-0 8-8 4-4 7-10 0-2 27 34 79.4
26 Tampa Bay 14 18 77.8 59 0-0 3-3 9-10 1-4 1-1 34 38 89.5
27 Green Bay 22 29 75.9 53 0-0 3-3 9-10 6-10 4-6 27 29 93.1
28 Cleveland 13 18 72.2 51 0-0 4-4 6-6 2-5 1-3 19 23 82.6
29 Cincinnat 10 14 71.4 51 0-0 2-2 4-5 3-3 1-4 34 36 94.4
Pittsburg 10 14 71.4 50 0-0 3-3 3-3 3-7 1-1 36 41 87.8
31 Arizona 7 10 70.0 44 0-0 2-2 2-2 3-5 0-1 20 20 100
32 Minnesota 17 26 65.4 52 0-0 3-4 9-10 4-10 1-2 26 27 96.3

[mraynrand]

http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/37824/nick-perrys-contract-with-packers-not-as-monstrous-as-it-seems

If Demovsky is right about the roster bonus not being guaranteed and being due the third of fifth day of the new League year, Packers could survive the hit by spread it out over two years.

To get out of 2019 they take an $11,100,000 cap hit with a cap savings of $14,700,000. But they are not going to want to pay that cash, which reduces the cap savings to $11,000,000. Still doable, even more doable if they designate him June 1 cut and spread the dead cap money out over two years.

If he survives 2019, cutting him in 2020 is easy: POTENTIAL OUT: 2020, 3 YR, $38,775,000; $7,400,000 DEAD CAP which could be easily absorbed by the 2020 cap savings.

This is the exciting stuff that attracts me to the sporting world.

[bobblehead]

QB: Aaron "The Coach Killer" Rodgers, Kizer
RB: Jones, Williams, draftee or free agent
WR: Adams, Valdez-Scantling, St. Brown, Moore, Kumerow, draftee free agent
TE: Graham, Tonyan Draftee free agent
OL: Linsley, Bakhtiari, Taylor draftees, free agents

DL: Daniels, Clark, Lowery, Adams, draftee or FA
ILB: Martinez, Burks Draftees, free agents
OLB: Fackrell, Gilbert, Draftees, Free agents
DBs Josh Jones, Jackson, King, Alexander, Draftees, free agents

The defensive backfield was overhauled over the past two years but there is now a significant hole at the safety position. The Packers will also have a hole at outside linebacker with a serious lack of depth and playmakers. Inside linebacker is also very lean. The Packers will have to spend or draft to fix. The Packers are in decent shape along the defensive line. The real hole on this team is on the offensive line. Bulaga has nothing left. His legs are shot. Spriggs has been a complete disappointment and should be cut. The Packers have gotten very little from Taylor and Bell, and McCray. the other issue is Bakthairi, he is never healthy and also has leg problems, constantly. The Packers misses at the offensive line position in the previous drafts are coming back to hunt them.

I can see where you are coming from at WR, but I think another impact guy is needed. Just not convinced that guy is on the roster unless J'mon Moore lives up to his body all of a sudden or MVS gets polished in an offseason. I think St. Brown is near useless. Kumerow may emerge in next weeks, but we'll see on that. I see the position as 1 star, 1 guy that needs a good offseason to hope he becomes an NFL #2, and not much.

[bobblehead]

Ted was a very good GM for around 10 years with good drafts and a healthy relationship with MM and success on the field. His last 3 or 4 drafts were not good and we did not use free agency to supplement the poor drafts. Overall, he was deserving of being in the Packer Hall of Fame, but a change was needed when he stepped down.

The same can be said for MM. He was highly successful for about 10 years and navigated a difficult transition from Favre to Rodgers. He is deserving of being in the Packer Hall of Fame, but again, a change was needed. Let’s hope that Murphy can be successful in navigating that change.

2017 King-very good when healthy, AJones stud- JJones and Mt. Adams still may be players---looks decent
2016 Clark-all world, Fackrell starting to look like a pro, Matinez stud, Lowry and Davis good role players---looks decent
2015 Randall starting with an NFL team, Montgomery solid pro making strides in Balt...helped team in need by switching positions, Ryan good role player, Ripkowski contributed many ways, --- bad draft
2014 haha still starting...everyone loved the pick, DAdams stud, Lindsly rock solid, -- bad draft, but 2 really good starters still
2013 Bacteria stud at 2nd most important Offensive position, Tretter starting in NFL, Hyde all pro in NFL, Lacy very good till he couldn't stop joining MM at dinnertime.

Based on the 3 starters rule were these drafts really that bad? Its becoming more obvious the coaches misused Hyde, Randall, and Montgomery. I think they missed by not making Tretter a guard also. I would argue the decline was MM misusing nearly the entire 2013 draft class.

[pbmax]

Crosby (2018) ranks 25th with kicks inside 39 yards (92%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 28th with kicks up to 49 yards (78%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 27th with kicks over 50 yards (33%)

Pretty consistently among the worst in the League. He has a new holder, so it's impossible to tell where the hangup is exactly, but unlike other work we've done, Crosby no longer looks excellent from all but McCarthy's favorite FG distance.

[pbmax]

BTW, with the new scoring explosion. TDs are worth more relative to FGs than ever before. So all those long distance kicks are costing the team points and possibly field position.

[mraynrand]

Crosby (2018) ranks 25th with kicks inside 39 yards (92%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 28th with kicks up to 49 yards (78%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 27th with kicks over 50 yards (33%)

Pretty consistently among the worst in the League. He has a new holder, so it's impossible to tell where the hangup is exactly, but unlike other work we've done, Crosby no longer looks excellent from all but McCarthy's favorite FG distance.

Crosby's line is: 3-3 9-10 6-10 4-6.

4-6 is 33%? As I see it, only one guy has attempted more from 50+ and only three have attempted more from 40-49. Crosby basically hasn't missed from under 40 (Detroit is the 1), and he's 6-10 rather than 8-10 from 40-50 because of Detroit. Like I said, it looks dramatically worse because of Detroit. The 12-13 from inside 39 ranking 25th is misleading of course. There's no need to incorrectly list his percentages and show misleading percentages to make him look worse. The numbers are all there. The honest summary is that he had one horrible day and 2-3 other keys misses. That's a bad year for a placekicker.

[mraynrand]

Crosby no longer looks excellent from all but McCarthy's favorite FG distance.

Take away Detroit and he's right on his career averages.

[Fritz]

Seems to me Rodgers was a BPA pick, all the way.

Yes, Rodgers was a BPA pick. I wrote that bit badly. "Subscribed" would have been the word to use there.

[texaspackerbacker]

He makes too damn much money for the mediocre job he has done. Teams get as good or better performance from street free agents making a small fraction as much. If Jerry Jones can get rid of and replace Dan Bailey, how much more sense does it make to get rid of Crosby?

[mraynrand]

He makes too damn much money for the mediocre job he has done. Teams get as good or better performance from street free agents making a small fraction as much. If Jerry Jones can get rid of and replace Dan Bailey, how much more sense does it make to get rid of Crosby?

just looking down that list of kickers you can see it’s SOP for a kicker to wear out his welcome and move on. Salary, bad stretches, body odor, these are all reason kickers are let go. Maybe it’s Crosby’s time.

[pbmax]

Crosby's line is: 3-3 9-10 6-10 4-6.

4-6 is 33%? As I see it, only one guy has attempted more from 50+ and only three have attempted more from 40-49. Crosby basically hasn't missed from under 40 (Detroit is the 1), and he's 6-10 rather than 8-10 from 40-50 because of Detroit. Like I said, it looks dramatically worse because of Detroit. The 12-13 from inside 39 ranking 25th is misleading of course. There's no need to incorrectly list his percentages and show misleading percentages to make him look worse. The numbers are all there. The honest summary is that he had one horrible day and 2-3 other keys misses. That's a bad year for a placekicker.

I can't help you.

[denverYooper]

I can't help you.

Doesn't this belong in the Moss thread?

[pbmax]

Take away Detroit and he's right on his career averages.

The problem is that his career averages are now below league averages.

[pbmax]

Doesn't this belong in the Moss thread?

I know what you all want me to say. But I am going to speak TRUTH.

We must all Data -> Sort -> Custom better to fix this thing.

[Carolina_Packer]

http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/37824/nick-perrys-contract-with-packers-not-as-monstrous-as-it-seems

If Demovsky is right about the roster bonus not being guaranteed and being due the third of fifth day of the new League year, Packers could survive the hit by spread it out over two years.

To get out of 2019 they take an $11,100,000 cap hit with a cap savings of $14,700,000. But they are not going to want to pay that cash, which reduces the cap savings to $11,000,000. Still doable, even more doable if they designate him June 1 cut and spread the dead cap money out over two years.

If he survives 2019, cutting him in 2020 is easy: POTENTIAL OUT: 2020, 3 YR, $38,775,000; $7,400,000 DEAD CAP which could be easily absorbed by the 2020 cap savings.

Which would be a harder pill to swallow for the team?

His lack of production and injury concerns affecting his impact to the team while taking up a valuable roster spot (next year)

or

the financial burden of his cap hit should he be cut before his contract expires?

Tough decisions.

[pbmax]

Which would be a harder pill to swallow for the team?

His lack of production and injury concerns affecting his impact to the team while taking up a valuable roster spot (next year)

or

the financial burden of his cap hit should he be cut before his contract expires?

Tough decisions.

It is tough, especially if you don't want to pay the $4.7 mil because you think he's not going to be back. You can't draft or sign FA and then determine how much he is worth to keep around. If you want to make that call, you'd have to pay him then take the hit later if you sign someone with a big price tag.

[pbmax]

OK, here are the corrected numbers for Crosby compared to others this year. Hopefully this chart stands scrutiny better,

Overall FG% is 75.9%, ranks 27th

FG% 1-39 is 92.3%, ranks 25th

FG% 1-49 is 78.2%, ranks 28th (6-10 from 40-49)

FG% 50+ is 66.67%, ranks 15th


Having a better year from 50+ than 40-49.

[mraynrand]

The problem is that his career averages are now below league averages.

It is a problem. BUT, "As I see it, only one guy has attempted more from 50+ and only three have attempted more from 40-49."

Meaning, there is an explanation (at least a partial explanation) that doesn't involve him getting worse relative to the league. Maybe get in the red zone more and he looks a whole lot better. Or, he could just sign with a dome team after GB and then parlay that into his next contract. Of course, he may want to steer clear of the Lions....

[mraynrand]

FG% 1-39 is 92.3%, ranks 25th


I know, the whole class took the test and got 100%, and poor little masie got one wrong. Lowest A in the class. :)

[wist43]

I don't think there is any hemming and hawing about the cap when it comes to Perry - he's gone.

They'll just do it whatever way works best with their plan moving forward. My guess would be shooting for the SB in 2020.... so whatever cap gymnastics make the most sense to move toward that as the goal.

[mraynrand]

I don't think there is any hemming and hawing about the cap when it comes to Perry - he's gone.

They'll just do it whatever way works best with their plan moving forward. My guess would be shooting for the SB in 2020.... so whatever cap gymnastics make the most sense to move toward that as the goal.

The one light of optimism this season has given me is that it's very clear that Murphy/Gute realize the roster has gone to seed. They don't seem at all worried about torpedoing anyone they don't think measures up.

[texaspackerbacker]

I'm as negative as anyone about Ted Thompson and the job he did, but I disagree about the overall badness of the Packers current roster. Aside from the greatest QB in the history of the world, we have the best RB we've had since Ahman Green, the best WR since who? maybe Sterling Sharpe? We have a nice group of other young WRs; We have at least a decent TE. Whatever the case with our O Line, we have a mobile QB with a history of not needing very good O Line blocking.

As for the Defense, 1. we've had great teams other years when we just had to outscore teams when our D couldn't stop them. 2. We've got a D Coordinator who many in here wanted when they whined so profusely about Capers. 3. We've got at least a few quality young players on D: Clark, Alexander, maybe Martinez, Fackrell, Gilbert, Jones, and Jackson.

The bottom line is, Aaron Rodgers plus just about anything means a competitive high level team.

[bobblehead]

The problem is that his career averages are now below league averages.

This. Kickers are getting better all the time. I don't have a big problem with Bing having one bad year, but he is paid as a top kicker and is no longer a top kicker.

[bobblehead]

The one light of optimism this season has given me is that it's very clear that Murphy/Gute realize the roster has gone to seed. They don't seem at all worried about torpedoing anyone they don't think measures up.

This roster isn't so bad. We are hurting at OL and WR because of defensive heavy drafts. If we had re-signed Hyde and Hayward this whole thing might have gone a dramatically different way. Same goes for if Shields hadn't suffered so many concussions. It didn't help that the last handful of drafts didn't have many OL prospects overall.

[denverYooper]

The one light of optimism this season has given me is that it's very clear that Murphy/Gute realize the roster has gone to seed. They don't seem at all worried about torpedoing anyone they don't think measures up.

I figured this was why there was high participation in the optional lifting day this week.

[wthigoot]

This. Kickers are getting better all the time. I don't have a big problem with Bing having one bad year, but he is paid as a top kicker and is no longer a top kicker.

The 6th rounder from Seattle will go to draft a kicker. If he is OK then Crosby can be cut to save a few bucks.

[wist43]

This roster isn't so bad. We are hurting at OL and WR because of defensive heavy drafts. If we had re-signed Hyde and Hayward this whole thing might have gone a dramatically different way. Same goes for if Shields hadn't suffered so many concussions. It didn't help that the last handful of drafts didn't have many OL prospects overall.

The problem is they've missed on so many high picks. Spriggs was a second rounder, he's a bust; Randall a bust; they let Hyde and Heyward walk, et al... Perry was a bad signing, they've had contempt for years toward the ILB position, and have likely missed again with Burks.

Way too many poor personnel decisions.

[texaspackerbacker]

I say again, I have as low an opinion of Ted Thompson as anybody, but most of what has been cited can be chalked up to bad luck, the Shields situation for sure - throw in Nick Collins too. How many of us can honestly say we disapproved of those "poor personnel decisions" and others at the time they were made?

[Bretsky]

I was surprised not to see statistically Crosby is not in at least the top half of the kickers in the NLF. I guess I've just got used to relying on the guy.

[mraynrand]

D. Randall: "They traded away all their good players, and expect Aaron Rodgers to be magical, and the magic hasn't been so magical lately."


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=66&v=wbWxRRM4U1c

[HarveyWallbangers]

Crosby (2018) ranks 25th with kicks inside 39 yards (92%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 28th with kicks up to 49 yards (78%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 27th with kicks over 50 yards (33%)

Pretty consistently among the worst in the League. He has a new holder, so it's impossible to tell where the hangup is exactly, but unlike other work we've done, Crosby no longer looks excellent from all but McCarthy's favorite FG distance.

Crosby has been pretty reliable--outside of one year and one game this year. I know he hasn't been clutch this year, but he's been reliable on clutch kicks in the past. Also, the game winners this year haven't been gimmes--which speaks to the other point. He kicks in Green Bay (which has to be one of the three most difficult places to kick), always seems to have a disproportionate amount of long kicks, and constantly has to deal with changing holders and snappers (recently). Now, I don't think he's worth the money he's being paid, but I'm pretty sure he'd be agreeable to a renegotiation (since he has been in the past). I'd bring him back at a reduced salary.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Dream Offseason For Me

Sign WR Golden Tate.
Sign OLB Anthony Barr.
Sign S Earl Thomas or Landon Collins.
Draft OLB in 1st round.
Draft OG in 2nd-4th round.
Draft TE in 2nd-4th round.
Best player available with other 1st round pick. I'd use it at a premium position (OT, CB, OLB, DL, maybe WR).

[call_me_ishmael]

Dream Offseason For Me

Sign WR Golden Tate.
Sign OLB Anthony Barr.
Sign S Earl Thomas or Landon Collins.
Draft OLB in 1st round.
Draft OG in 2nd-4th round.
Draft TE in 2nd-4th round.
Best player available with other 1st round pick. I'd use it at a premium position (OT, CB, OLB, DL, maybe WR).

I agree that would be a fantastic off-season. I'm on board. I bet Tate costs less than one might think and could be a great value. He's consistently a good weapon.

Is Minnesota not expected to franchise/re-sign Barr?

[mraynrand]

Dream Offseason For Me

Sign WR Golden Tate.
Sign OLB Anthony Barr.
Sign S Earl Thomas or Landon Collins.
Draft OLB in 1st round.
Draft OG in 2nd-4th round.
Draft TE in 2nd-4th round.
Best player available with other 1st round pick. I'd use it at a premium position (OT, CB, OLB, DL, maybe WR).

Good post. Barr is perfectly suited to be the hostile OLB we haven't had in forever. I think you have to spend a first on an OT, unless of course the value isn't there and you can get the guy later. Can't afford to miss this time - desperately need a starting RT. Also need another tackle as backup for both tackle positions (preferable the same guy).

[wist43]

Dream Offseason For Me

Sign WR Golden Tate.
Sign OLB Anthony Barr.
Sign S Earl Thomas or Landon Collins.
Draft OLB in 1st round.
Draft OG in 2nd-4th round.
Draft TE in 2nd-4th round.
Best player available with other 1st round pick. I'd use it at a premium position (OT, CB, OLB, DL, maybe WR).

In general I like that offseason, but I want to make sure we hit on all those guys... if the best TE available in rd3 can't be a difference maker, I'd rather draft a second Guard that I knew was going to be a solid 10 year starter.

How many times did we hear TT go on about "he's a good football player" (Ryan comes to mind), and then the guy doesn't make any plays?? We need difference makers.

Those first 3 picks all need to be starters right out of the gate.

[pbmax]

Let's be realistic. Half the draftees will not be starter quality. Its the way it always works. Its a great draft if you get half as starters.

The problem the team has got itself into isn't just D related. A lot of those D heavy drafts just drained the depth out of the offense too. If you went back to the player decisions and adjusted with hindsight, especially 2nd contracts, you could fix some holes on the D but you'd still be short on offense.

Best player available draft and sign free agents when its reasonable OR the player simply cannot be duplicated with youth (Peppers versus end of first round pass rushers).

[pbmax]

Crosby has been pretty reliable--outside of one year and one game this year. I know he hasn't been clutch this year, but he's been reliable on clutch kicks in the past. Also, the game winners this year haven't been gimmes--which speaks to the other point. He kicks in Green Bay (which has to be one of the three most difficult places to kick), always seems to have a disproportionate amount of long kicks, and constantly has to deal with changing holders and snappers (recently). Now, I don't think he's worth the money he's being paid, but I'm pretty sure he'd be agreeable to a renegotiation (since he has been in the past). I'd bring him back at a reduced salary.

If you take away Mason Crosby's worst game, then you need to do that for each kicker.

But let's suppose Mason goes 3/5. It puts his year average at roughly 86%, good for dead middle of League.

His worst game was indoors and we haven't really gotten to bad weather yet.

Time to plan for a change.

[mraynrand]

If you take away Mason Crosby's worst game, then you need to do that for each kicker.

I don't think any kicker had that kind of game and kept his job. I can think of two who were cut after a game like that. Crosby is having a poor year. But, like many years, he's in the upper percentile of kickers asked to kick longer FGs. Maybe they can get a salary reduction out of him and challenge him with a camp leg. If he starts out next year rough, you can just let him go. But he'll definitely pop up somewhere else.

[wist43]

Let's be realistic. Half the draftees will not be starter quality. Its the way it always works. Its a great draft if you get half as starters.

The problem the team has got itself into isn't just D related. A lot of those D heavy drafts just drained the depth out of the offense too. If you went back to the player decisions and adjusted with hindsight, especially 2nd contracts, you could fix some holes on the D but you'd still be short on offense.

Best player available draft and sign free agents when its reasonable OR the player simply cannot be duplicated with youth (Peppers versus end of first round pass rushers).

Don't think anyone is saying half the draftees need to be starters... what I'm saying is those first 3 picks need to be starting - if not right away, then by seasons end for sure.

That's 3 picks in the top 45... it is not unreasonable to expect that those 3 guys will all be starters - especially on a team with as many holes as the Packers.

[pbmax]

Don't think anyone is saying half the draftees need to be starters... what I'm saying is those first 3 picks need to be starting - if not right away, then by seasons end for sure.

That's 3 picks in the top 45... it is not unreasonable to expect that those 3 guys will all be starters - especially on a team with as many holes as the Packers.

2018: Alexander/Jackson/Burks
2017: King/Jones/Adams
2016: Clark/Spriggs/Fackrell
2015: Randall/Rollins/Monty
2014: Dix/Adams/Thorton
2013: Jones/Lacy/Bach
2012: Perry/Worthy/Hayward
2011: Sherrod/Cobb/Green
2010: Bulaga/Neal/Burnett
2009: Raji/Matthews/Lang

Counting on a once a decade development is not a smart way to proceed. 2010 and 2013 came close, but Neal and Jones never really started. They were regular contributors at most.

[wist43]

2018: Alexander/Jackson/Burks
2017: King/Jones/Adams
2016: Clark/Spriggs/Fackrell
2015: Randall/Rollins/Monty
2014: Dix/Adams/Thorton
2013: Jones/Lacy/Bach
2012: Perry/Worthy/Hayward
2011: Sherrod/Cobb/Green
2010: Bulaga/Neal/Burnett
2009: Raji/Matthews/Lang

Counting on a once a decade development is not a smart way to proceed. 2010 and 2013 came close, but Neal and Jones never really started. They were regular contributors at most.

Teams that ascend hit on those picks, teams that don't are also rans.

If you're a scout and GM, and you don't expect to hit on your first 3 picks, you should be selling insurance.

[Joemailman]

Not sure if they can make the money work, but Clay Matthews can still play. Id like to see him return.

[texaspackerbacker]

Agreed on the Clay Matthews thing.

More than ever today's game, I have a positive feeling about a lot of these cheap fill-ins on defense - Breeland for sure, but also Tony Brown, Morrison, Lancaster, etc.

The other games are going right so far, so maybe the Packers aren't dead yet. My Cowboys are coming through so far - both for themselves and helping the Packers by knocking off the Eagles.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Breeland might be worth bringing back as the veteran presence (injury replacement for when King gets injured again) at CB.

[pbmax]

Breeland might be worth bringing back as the veteran presence (injury replacement for when King gets injured again) at CB.

Seems like he can play inside at safety too. Would like back.

[pbmax]

Teams that ascend hit on those picks, teams that don't are also rans.

If you're a scout and GM, and you don't expect to hit on your first 3 picks, you should be selling insurance.

Bolded: Sure. Because they are bad for 8-10 years and you remember the two drafts that they did it. But those teams can also be drafting 3 players inside the Top 50 often. Its easier to draft if you stink.

Teams can't plan for 100% on day 1 and 2 picks, it just doesn't happen. Its a 50% bust rate. You need a backup plan. Not having a backup plan means you should be in control of the Bengals.

[texaspackerbacker]

Yeah, and I say AGAIN that hitting and missing on draft picks is more about LUCK than about smart choices.

[Joemailman]

Seems like he can play inside at safety too. Would like back.

Breeland had signed a 3 year, 24 million dollar contract last March with Carolina, but then failed his physical due to a non-football injury. I wonder what his market value will be. Would the Packers be inclined to pay big money to keep him?

[wist43]

Bolded: Sure. Because they are bad for 8-10 years and you remember the two drafts that they did it. But those teams can also be drafting 3 players inside the Top 50 often. Its easier to draft if you stink.

Teams can't plan for 100% on day 1 and 2 picks, it just doesn't happen. Its a 50% bust rate. You need a backup plan. Not having a backup plan means you should be in control of the Bengals.

1) We're gonna have 3 picks in the top 50.

2) If you're not hitting on starters at the top end of your draft - you're not gonna be GM for very long.

You're an excuse maker max... you defended every pick TT ever made, when better players were clearly available.

[pbmax]

1) We're gonna have 3 picks in the top 50.

2) If you're not hitting on starters at the top end of your draft - you're not gonna be GM for very long.

You're an excuse maker max... you defended every pick TT ever made, when better players were clearly available.

Its easy to argue you know who the better players were after the fact. You overlook your mistakes and highlight the times you mention someone successful.

If you were an NFL GM, you'd hit on starters in draft picks less than 50% of the time. But you like to pretend it easy. That's just making a bold claim and never having to back it up.

Actual GMs need to live with their mistakes, you can ignore yours.

[Rutnstrut]

Bolded: Sure. Because they are bad for 8-10 years and you remember the two drafts that they did it. But those teams can also be drafting 3 players inside the Top 50 often. Its easier to draft if you stink.

Teams can't plan for 100% on day 1 and 2 picks, it just doesn't happen. Its a 50% bust rate. You need a backup plan. Not having a backup plan means you should be in control of the Bengals.



You also need a back up plan for draft picks not panning out. It's called trades, waivers, and free agency. All of which TT failed at and why there are huge, glaring holes all over this team. The Packers back up plan has been, we have Rodgers.

[mraynrand]

You also need a back up plan for draft picks not panning out. It's called trades...

If your draft picks don't work out, who do you trade?

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

If your draft picks don't work out, who do you trade?

The coach?

[mraynrand]

The coach?

for 1 or 2 rolls of tape?

[Bossman641]

Its easy to argue you know who the better players were after the fact. You overlook your mistakes and highlight the times you mention someone successful.

If you were an NFL GM, you'd hit on starters in draft picks less than 50% of the time. But you like to pretend it easy. That's just making a bold claim and never having to back it up.

Actual GMs need to live with their mistakes, you can ignore yours.

Agreed, it's nice to say " you have 3 top 50 picks and they should all work out" but the reality is that 1/3 of 1st round picks fail to become even long term solutions.

[Rutnstrut]

If your draft picks don't work out, who do you trade?



Future picks, beer, brats, cheese, they figure it the fuck out. That's why they get paid a shit ton of money.

[mraynrand]

Future picks, beer, brats, cheese, they figure it the fuck out. That's why they get paid a shit ton of money.

But they don't figure it out, apparently. And you can't just trade SPRIGGS™ and a #2 for Khalil Mack. Oh well, maybe they turn it around after the lean last TT years....

[wist43]

Its easy to argue you know who the better players were after the fact. You overlook your mistakes and highlight the times you mention someone successful.

If you were an NFL GM, you'd hit on starters in draft picks less than 50% of the time. But you like to pretend it easy. That's just making a bold claim and never having to back it up.

Actual GMs need to live with their mistakes, you can ignore yours.

I miss on guys, and certainly don't devote enough time to studying draft picks to know guys further down the prospect list, but the guys get plenty of scrutiny - and no, it isn't rocket science.

I've been right on more top picks than TT was... which let's face it, wasn't hard to do the past few years. You can defend TT to the death if you want, but his poor drafts have depleted the team to what it is today - a sub .500 team.

[pbmax]

I look forward to your thread in which the one player you would take in each of the first three rounds gets posted the moment before the Pack select. No multiple players, no hedging.

Good luck. I actually agree with you regarding the Packers odd inability to hit on certain D picks, so I think you have a fair shot at outpicking Gute on D unless it’s a cornerback.

[run pMc]

We're all smarter than the GM and coaches.
Doesn't do much good to look at the 2014 draft and say "he shoulda drafted X instead!" unless you have a time machine, in which case you probably have better things to fix than GB's drafts.

I'm waiting, however, for someone to bring up how Ron Wolf was a rousing success with his 1st round picks.

Picking earlier in the draft order generally gets you a more talented player at a specific position, having more draft picks gets you more talent overall. That is, you have more chances to hit on a player if you have more picks, but that pick has a better chance to be special if he's picked earlier.

Argue away, but with a new coach it would not surprise me if the roster changes over considerably to the new HC's preferred O & D systems. That could lead to a lot of picks being cut/waived even if they are serviceable players.

[wist43]

I look forward to your thread in which the one player you would take in each of the first three rounds gets posted the moment before the Pack select. No multiple players, no hedging.

Good luck. I actually agree with you regarding the Packers odd inability to hit on certain D picks, so I think you have a fair shot at outpicking Gute on D unless it’s a cornerback.

I'm not shy about the guys I like... I'm on record.

You take the path of least resistance, i.e. just go with whoever the Pack picks as being the best thing since sliced bread. You're the one who needs to name your guys.

[pbmax]

I'm not shy about the guys I like... I'm on record.

You take the path of least resistance, i.e. just go with whoever the Pack picks as being the best thing since sliced bread. You're the one who needs to name your guys.

I am not the one claiming I can do it better than the pros. I gave up trying to do better than the pros long ago when I realized Mel and I were full of shit.

Webster Slaughter taught many lessons in 1986.

[mraynrand]

I've been right on more top picks than TT was... which let's face it, wasn't hard to do the past few years. You can defend TT to the death if you want, but his poor drafts have depleted the team to what it is today - a sub .500 team.

Even when you're 'right' about a pick TT should have taken, you have to evaluate that guy in the system in which he plays. For example, I liked Frank Clark, who I think Seattle took after Rollins. That guy probably has 20-30 sacks, but he plays in Seattle's 4-3 under. So maybe GB drafts him and he's a fish out of water in their 3-4 with Capers (even acknowledging Caper's flaws). Etc. etc.

[wist43]

I am not the one claiming I can do it better than the pros. I gave up trying to do better than the pros long ago when I realized Mel and I were full of shit.

Webster Slaughter taught many lessons in 1986.

I'm not claiming I can do better than "the pros", I'm claiming my wishlist against TT's actual picks was better - and it was. Like I said, that wasn't hard to do b/c TT's actual record on early round picks wasn't very good.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Even when you're 'right' about a pick TT should have taken, you have to evaluate that guy in the system in which he plays. For example, I liked Frank Clark, who I think Seattle took after Rollins. That guy probably has 20-30 sacks, but he plays in Seattle's 4-3 under. So maybe GB drafts him and he's a fish out of water in their 3-4 with Capers (even acknowledging Caper's flaws). Etc. etc.

Like the time Todd drafted the soft milksop 43 DE to play OLB in the 34 over hip hop safety Harrison Smith?

Collins’ career ended in, what, 2011? Pack still searching for Collins’ replacement. Thanks Todd.

[pbmax]

I'm not claiming I can do better than "the pros", I'm claiming my wishlist against TT's actual picks was better - and it was. Like I said, that wasn't hard to do b/c TT's actual record on early round picks wasn't very good.

A wishlist is not a draft pick. You are comparing apples to orangutans. It's obvious his top picks have been found wanting too often. No one in the entire universe is disagreeing with you.

But a wishlist is not the same as a series of discrete picks over the years. But you keep intimating (or alternately, insisting) that a measure of Thompsons' failure is that your wishlist is better. The comparison is facile. Stop trying to pat yourself on the back while you criticize Thompson unless you want to record the picks you would make in real time with the same information the team has during the draft.

Help the board understand why it was bad. Help the board understand how it could be better. But stop telling us you are better than Thompson at making picks unless you are actually willing to make picks.

And damn everyone for making me write something Bob McGinn would agree with.