NFL Analytics and the next GB offense

[run pMc]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/19/18148153/nfl-analytics-revolution

Article makes a few interesting comments:


[Warren] Sharp found that third-down efficiency, long the obsession of announcers and old-school coaches, was not the key to an effective offense. He found that it was better for teams to scrap third downs entirely and move the chains by gaining the necessary yardage on first and second down.

In his view, teams should run the ball on first down much less than they do.


the metric ranks Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner ahead of Rams star Aaron Donald because pass coverage carries more weight than pass rush, as offenses can compensate for the latter. As an example, Hornsby points to when Donald was single-teamed against the Bears in Week 14: Chicago took an average of 1.5 seconds to get rid of the ball, thus making it next to impossible for Donald to wreck a play in his usual way.


teams are finally figuring out the value of never giving the ball up.

So...keep the chains moving, be aggressive on first down, run efficient plays, mitigate pass rush with quick throws, and prefer pass coverage to pass rush?

Discuss.

[mraynrand]

Chicago didn't trade two first round picks for a shut-down corner. The key to pass rush being effective is generating consistent pressure without blitzing. You gt a guy like Mack who has to be doubled on every play, that's already closer to a win. The Bears threw the ball in 1.5 seconds because of Donald, they only scored 15 against the Rams, despite picking off Goff 4 times. Pressure is the key to forcing offenses to go short. Possessing the ball has it's advantages, but long drives are more likely to stall out. You have to have a mix of the short steady game, and some ability to stretch the field, or you'll get picked on.

Wagner is ahead of Donald because of his versatility - he affects the passer quite a bit for an ILB, gets tons of tackles AND can cover. He's just a great individual defender, maybe even tops in all the league.

[run pMc]

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#catch-percentage

Michael Thomas : 109 rec/ 127 Tgts. An 85.83% catch rate is pretty darn good.

way down the list, you find Davante and Randall next to each other at 66% catch rate.

Is that QB or scheme? Gotta think Sean Payton is doing something right for a player to have a catch rate like that.

[run pMc]

Chicago didn't trade two first round picks for a shut-down corner. The key to pass rush being effective is generating consistent pressure without blitzing. You gt a guy like Mack who has to be doubled on every play, that's already closer to a win. The Bears threw the ball in 1.5 seconds because of Donald, they only scored 15 against the Rams, despite picking off Goff 4 times. Pressure is the key to forcing offenses to go short. Possessing the ball has it's advantages, but long drives are more likely to stall out. You have to have a mix of the short steady game, and some ability to stretch the field, or you'll get picked on.

Wagner is ahead of Donald because of his versatility - he affects the passer quite a bit for an ILB, gets tons of tackles AND can cover. He's just a great individual defender, maybe even tops in all the league.


Yeah I agree pass rush can make a huge difference...and I also agree defenders can squat routes and throw wrenches in a short passing game if that's 90% of what you run. I don't think these analytics guys have it all figured out yet, but I think there are answers in there that a smart organization can use. i also think a well coached team can use analytics to build an offense that is flexible enough to attack defenses more than one or two ways.

It seems a big indictment of M3's offense was it seemed stiff/stale and he either couldn't or was slow to adapt it to defenses.

As for Wagner, there a reason he's a Pro Bowl player. Finding ILBs who can play run and pass equally well are uncommon and thus valuable. I wouldn't complain about having him (or Donald) on my team.

[mraynrand]

As for Wagner, there a reason he's a Pro Bowl player. Finding ILBs who can play run and pass equally well are uncommon and thus valuable. I wouldn't complain about having him (or Donald) on my team.

No doubt. This squad needs some real difference makers.

[bobblehead]

Yeah I agree pass rush can make a huge difference...and I also agree defenders can squat routes and throw wrenches in a short passing game if that's 90% of what you run. I don't think these analytics guys have it all figured out yet, but I think there are answers in there that a smart organization can use. i also think a well coached team can use analytics to build an offense that is flexible enough to attack defenses more than one or two ways.

It seems a big indictment of M3's offense was it seemed stiff/stale and he either couldn't or was slow to adapt it to defenses.

As for Wagner, there a reason he's a Pro Bowl player. Finding ILBs who can play run and pass equally well are uncommon and thus valuable. I wouldn't complain about having him (or Donald) on my team.

Analyzing data is very different than analyzing the results of things. The data suggests that all fat people breath. It does not suggest that breathing makes you fat. Bobby Wagner can cover exactly ONE defender. Aaron Donald can cover everyone in a route if he hits the QB.

[Joemailman]

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#catch-percentage

Michael Thomas : 109 rec/ 127 Tgts. An 85.83% catch rate is pretty darn good.

way down the list, you find Davante and Randall next to each other at 66% catch rate.

Is that QB or scheme? Gotta think Sean Payton is doing something right for a player to have a catch rate like that.

85% catch rate is phenomenal, but so is Brees' overall completion percentage of 75%. Compare to Rodgers' 62%. I wonder how many of the incompletions where Adams was targeted were Rodgers throwing the ball away.

[mraynrand]

Gotta think Sean Payton is doing something right for a player to have a catch rate like that.

His GM got him one of the best QBs in NFL history, a pretty good O line, weapons, oh, and his scheme gets the ball out lickety split.

[mraynrand]

Bobby Wagner can cover exactly ONE defender. Aaron Donald can cover everyone in a route if he hits the QB.

if

[gbgary]

So...keep the chains moving, be aggressive on first down, run efficient plays, mitigate pass rush with quick throws, and prefer pass coverage to pass rush?

Discuss.

gee...whodathunkit? i've only been bitching about this for 5+ years. lol


the key to having a pass rush work is having a qb willing to hold the ball until you get there.

[Fosco33]

I used to do analytics rankings here... which I (while biased) thought we’re pretty good. Yards/play, 3rd down, pts/game, turnover - both on offense and defense - weighted and ordinally ranked showed decent correlation to Ws and playoff teams.

Good teams adapt - during halftime, during a season, etc. We do not. It’s stale and predictable.

If you always know a team is passing on 1st down - makes it pretty easy to call the right Defensive play...

[pbmax]

Analyzing data is very different than analyzing the results of things. The data suggests that all fat people breath. It does not suggest that breathing makes you fat. Bobby Wagner can cover exactly ONE defender. Aaron Donald can cover everyone in a route if he hits the QB.

You can cover well more often that move the QB. Really depends on matchups. Bears schemed him away.