Is Gutekunst betting the farm? Putting all his eggs in this year's basket?

[Patler]

I've been waiting to see confirmed contract details to bring up this discussion. Not only has Gutekunst departed from recent Packer approach in signing free agents, unlike with the majority of recent contracts, Gutekunst has somewhat mortgaged the future in signing Smith I, Smith II, Amos and Turner.

The long and short of it is this, Gutekunst had better be right in determing that these guys are what is needed to make the Packers better, because if they aren't, the Packers are stuck with them for a few years. They won't have a second opportunity next year, maybe not even in 2021 because cutting them would severely disrupt the salary cap. JSO article summarizes it well:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/dougherty/2019/03/17/packers-free-agency-dougherty-packers-wont-splurging-next-year/3178457002/

Many recent Packer contracts have been nearly salary cap neutral even after only one season. The salary cap hit for cutting a player was close to the salary cap savings from removing his salary and bonus for that year. The Packers didn't have to keep players just because of the salary cap implications of cutting them.

If these four don't make the Packers significantly better, the Packers won't have much flexibility in 2020 or 2021 to move on from them. Right now their 2020 salary cap space is near the bottom of the league, and very much below the league average. They have one potentially big contract coming up in Clark, and a couple others whose values are yet to be determined (King, Fackrell, Martinez, etc.)

Gutekunst has taken his shot. His longevity in his job may depend on whether or not he has hit the target in this year's free agent market.

[red]

i don't know

as of right now, for next season, we have almost 40 million in free cap space even with the 4 new guys

our big free agents (that would eat the most cap if we resign them) are. kenny clark, mike daniels, blake martinez maybe fackrell, and lowry

so even if we re sign those guys, we're still should be under the cap

so we might not be completely screwed yet

and if the new guys don't pan out, we can cut them after this year and save a little bit of money. 1-2 million in cap relief each

[Bretsky]

TAKING GAMBLES: A SENSE OF URGENCY

I say....right or wrong....it's about f'cking time

We've had the best player in the NFL for many years; we should be more than a Fart in the Wind


For the record, I am on board with the Amos signing, and I"m fine with both Smith signings as a time we urgently needed at last one of them.


I'm not all in on Billy Turner; I think there would be opportunities get other OG's just as good as Turner for less money.

But just the sign of urgency to me is a welcome change

[Fritz]

Patler, I came to the same conclusion. Rare it is for a Packer GM not named Sherman to back-load contracts and hope you or someone else can clean up the mess down the road.

However, the article also mentions what would seem to be the reason for this: an aging Aaron Rodgers. This is a short-term strategy, which was the opposite of Thompson's way of working.

Let's hope it results in a Super Bowl championship in the next two to three years, cuz if it doesn't, it looks like we're going back to the days of dead money and no talent.

I can see why Gutekunst would do it. It's Rodgers or bust, at this point.

[Patler]

and if the new guys don't pan out, we can cut them after this year and save a little bit of money. 1-2 million in cap relief each

I don't think so. Cutting them after this year would actually cost them additional money against the cap in 2020 (Dead money cap hit after one year is more than the 2020 new money to be paid.) They are mostly committed to these guys for at least two years.

Projected salary cap space of $28M in 2020 sounds like a lot, but when you consider they are projected aat #28 in cap space, and the league averaage is $65M it shows they will be at a disadvantage to other teams even if this years FAs work out. Then, consider that their current 2020 projection includes only 33 players contracted for 2020. Much of that $28M of available cap space will be used up on the additional 20 players needed to complete the roster. When they sign this years draft class, the $28m projected to be available in 2020 will decrease by the second year contract amounts of the rookies, but will still leave some open spaces to be filled.

Not a dire situation, but more limiting than has been typical under TT.

[red]

I don't think so. Cutting them after this year would actually cost them additional money against the cap in 2020 (Dead money cap hit after one year is more than the 2020 new money to be paid.) They are mostly committed to these guys for at least two years.

Projected salary cap space of $28M in 2020 sounds like a lot, but when you consider they are projected aat #28 in cap space, and the league averaage is $65M it shows they will be at a disadvantage to other teams even if this years FAs work out. Then, consider that their current 2020 projection includes only 33 players contracted for 2020. Much of that $28M of available cap space will be used up on the additional 20 players needed to complete the roster. When they sign this years draft class, the $28m projected to be available in 2020 will decrease by the second year contract amounts of the rookies, but will still leave some open spaces to be filled.

Not a dire situation, but more limiting than has been typical under TT.

i think thats the problem, we're all too use to the ultra conservative approach of TT so anything other then that seems extreme

well welcome to the way the rest of the NFL works

and i think your number of 28 million is wrong. if you got that from spotrac, you'll notice the salary cap is actually lower then what it is this year. no way thats gonna happen. it usually goes up about 10 per year

for z-smith. next season he will have a cap him of 17.25 million. if we cut him, it would cost us 15 million. with a 9.5 million dollar toster bonus. so we would gain almost 12 million in cap space https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/zadarius-smith-16848/

p-smith, has a cap hit of 13.5, and would have a hit of 12 million if cut. due a 4.5 roster bonus savings 6.0 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/preston-smith-16762/

amose, will count 9.4, 8.25 if cut. 4.4 roster bonus. save about $6 million https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/adrian-amos-16868/

billy turner will cost 7.6, 6.75 if cut. turner also has a 3 million dollar roster bonus next year. so you would save that too https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/billy-turner-14477/

so while we would take huge amounts of dead hits, we would be saving some cap if we had to cut any of them

actually, looking back at them. with the huge roster bonuses in 2020, these could just be 1 year deals

[Patler]

[QUOTE=Fritz;1005579]Patler, I came to the same conclusion. Rare it is for a Packer GM not named Sherman to back-load contracts and hope you or someone else can clean up the mess down the road.

However, the article also mentions what would seem to be the reason for this: an aging Aaron Rodgers. This is a short-term strategy, which was the opposite of Thompson's way of working.

Let's hope it results in a Super Bowl championship in the next two to three years, cuz if it doesn't, it looks like we're going back to the days of dead money and no talent.

I can see why Gutekunst would do it. It's Rodgers or bust, at this point.[/QUOT

Agreed, much similarity to Sherman, even the reasons for doing it. Favre was at the same stage of his career, and Sherman was trying to make the most of it. Hopefully, Smith I & II and Amos don't turn out to be 2019 versions of Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Mark Roman or John Thierry.

[SMBASS]

John Thierry...(RIP) Wow Patler! There's a name that had been relegated to the back 40 of my memory.

[pbmax]

Over the Cap has Doctor Smith being escapable after 1 year with $2.25 mil in cap savings. If its designated post June 1, then the dead money gets spread out in $5 mi chunks. Otherwise its $15,000,000.

https://overthecap.com/player/zadarius-smith/3970/

Preston Smith almost the same thing. Prior to Year 2 (before the bonus due 3 days after new league year) he can be cut for $1.5 mil of cap savings. $12,000,000 dead money left to deal with.

https://overthecap.com/player/preston-smith/3886/

[pbmax]

John Thierry...(RIP) Wow Patler! There's a name that had been relegated to the back 40 of my memory.

Never has a player other than KGB been closer to the QB and not gotten a sack. Datone Jones was a shadow of this great lack of ability to close out.

[Patler]

i think thats the problem, we're all too use to the ultra conservative approach of TT so anything other then that seems extreme

well welcome to the way the rest of the NFL works

and i think your number of 28 million is wrong. if you got that from spotrac, you'll notice the salary cap is actually lower then what it is this year. no way thats gonna happen. it usually goes up about 10 per year

for z-smith. next season he will have a cap him of 17.25 million. if we cut him, it would cost us 15 million. with a 9.5 million dollar toster bonus. so we would gain almost 12 million in cap space https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/zadarius-smith-16848/

p-smith, has a cap hit of 13.5, and would have a hit of 12 million if cut. due a 4.5 roster bonus savings 6.0 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/preston-smith-16762/

amose, will count 9.4, 8.25 if cut. 4.4 roster bonus. save about $6 million https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/adrian-amos-16868/

billy turner will cost 7.6, 6.75 if cut. turner also has a 3 million dollar roster bonus next year. so you would save that too https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/billy-turner-14477/

so while we would take huge amounts of dead hits, we would be saving some cap if we had to cut any of them

actually, looking back at them. with the huge roster bonuses in 2020, these could just be 1 year deals


The numbers are not mine. I took my numbers from Daugherty's article that I linked to. I figured he gets paid to do the research, I don't.

Per Daugherty, the Packers are 28th of 32, with projected cap space less than half of the league average. That's not doing it like the rest of the league (which would be more near 16th, and 65M space.) The Packers are pushing the bottom. It's the opposite extreme of being around fifth in space with much, much more available cap space than the league average.

No matter what the correct numbers are, the comparisons to other teams remain, assuming all are calculated the same way. I'm not suggesting Gutekunst has made a mistake, but if he is wrong about these FAs, he won't have much flexibility to redo it next year. The Packers could then be looking at more years of medicrity while they burn through the guaranteed money of these contracts

[Patler]

John Thierry...(RIP) Wow Patler! There's a name that had been relegated to the back 40 of my memory.

Sometimes my memory doesn't have a back 40!

[Joemailman]

Spotrac has Packers 26M under the cap for 2020. However, that is based on the salary cap staying the same at 188M which it won't. I would expect Packers available cap spaced to be more close to 40M. That doesn't change the fact that they'll be about 28th in cap space. One silver lining in this cloud is that the Bears and Vikings will be in even worse shape.

A couple of thoughts: Don't be surprised if Gutey goes DL with one of his 1st round picks. Mike Daniels will be a UFA in 2020, and Packers may not be looking to give him another big contract with Kenny Clark entering his 5th year in 2020.

The Packers would save 8M on the salary cap by cutting Jimmy Graham before the 2020 season. Graham will have a base salary of 7.5 million in 2020. He will have to have a very good year in 2019 to see that money.

Don't be surprised if Gutey drafts Daniels' and Graham's replacements early in the 2019 draft.

[wist43]

[QUOTE=Fritz;1005579]Patler, I came to the same conclusion. Rare it is for a Packer GM not named Sherman to back-load contracts and hope you or someone else can clean up the mess down the road.

However, the article also mentions what would seem to be the reason for this: an aging Aaron Rodgers. This is a short-term strategy, which was the opposite of Thompson's way of working.

Let's hope it results in a Super Bowl championship in the next two to three years, cuz if it doesn't, it looks like we're going back to the days of dead money and no talent.

I can see why Gutekunst would do it. It's Rodgers or bust, at this point.[/QUOT

Agreed, much similarity to Sherman, even the reasons for doing it. Favre was at the same stage of his career, and Sherman was trying to make the most of it. Hopefully, Smith I & II and Amos don't turn out to be 2019 versions of Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Mark Roman or John Thierry.

Dead money or not - the problem now is a lack of talent.

Can't blame that on Gute.

Gute had no choice but to go out and get some talent on the open market - cuz we sure haven't been drafting it.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

With all due respect, Patler, but you lost all credibility regarding the cap when you argued -and was mathematically debunked- that it was impossible for Todd to retain both Wahle and Rivera, as well as Shaper.

Leave salary cap analysis to burger-flipping losers who have passed all 4 sections of the CPA (cap proficiency assessment) exams.

The cap can always be cooked. The networks will always bail out teams, at least until, Zeus-willing, capitalism collapses. There’s no such thing as a cap hell anymore.

The cap ain’t preventing Jerry Jones from building a team full of highly paid superstars. Instead, Jones refrains from doing so cos he’s a greed-fucked fishmonger, just like all the other greed-fucked fishmongers in the greed-fucked league.

The more expensive the player, the less profit, err, fish the fishmonger takes home.

[Patler]

With all due respect, Patler, but you lost all credibility regarding the cap when you argued -and was mathematically debunked- that it was impossible for Todd to retain both Wahle and Rivera, as well as Shaper.

Leave salary cap analysis to burger-flipping losers who have passed all 4 sections of the CPA (cap proficiency assessment) exams.

The cap can always be cooked. The networks will always bail out teams, at least until, Zeus-willing, capitalism collapses. There’s no such thing as a cap hell anymore.

The cap ain’t preventing Jerry Jones from building a team full of highly paid superstars. Instead, Jones refrains from doing so cos he’s a greed-fucked fishmonger, just like all the other greed-fucked fishmongers in the greed-fucked league.

The more expensive the player, the less profit, err, fish the fishmonger takes home.

Your repetitious bullshit is absolutely nauseating. You and your kind are more responsible for the decline of forums like this than any other factor.
Everytime I think I miss this place, you remind me of why I really do not.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Your repetitious bullshit is absolutely nauseating. You and your kind are more responsible for the decline of forums like this than any other factor.
Everytime I think I miss this place, you remind me of why I really do not.

Initially, the cap, along with revenues sharing and the reverse order draft, was developed to allow humble teams like our beloved Pack to remain competitive in the arena.

With soaring revenues and titanic network contracts, the cap has evolved into somewhat a constraint that benefits the owners as a whole. The cap gives Jerry Jones an excuse to not overspend. If Jones starts overspending, Snyder would be forced to follow suit. Then Kraft. Then Banks. And so forth.

The owners despises getting their profits milked. And that’s the truth.

[gbgary]

rodgers contract, and age, dictated this was the year for the biggest move(s) alongs with matthews and cobb contracts being over. there'll be less room going forward. the next two drafts better be great or it will have all been for not.

[gbgary]

Initially, the cap, along with revenues sharing and the reverse order draft, was developed to allow humble teams like our beloved Pack to remain competitive in the arena.

With soaring revenues and titanic network contracts, the cap has evolved into somewhat a constraint that benefits the owners as a whole. The cap gives Jerry Jones an excuse to not overspend. If Jones starts overspending, Snyder would be forced to follow suit. Then Kraft. Then Banks. And so forth.

The owners despises getting their profits milked. And that’s the truth.

jones has always overspent. he's kept his guys too long too. everyone should take a page out the hoodie book of winning and trade off some of their high-priced assets for good draft position like the pats have been doing year after year.

[RashanGary]

For 1, TT gets credit for part of these next two years. It was his responsibility to the long term that made this possible.

Secondly, Gute has to be right or the packers have no choice but to rebuild through the draft because we’re almost last in the league in available cap space.

Third, he did seem to pick safe players. All four are solid NFL players. They fit what we do and they fit what we need. They also are all durable players heading into the prime of their careers. Based on this, they are all decent bets to be solid


Assuming Gute drafts well, and these guys mostly pan out, we have a couple shots. These are young FAs. Definitely should be good players for a couple years.

It’s not a bad time for doing this. TT gets credit for making this possible and Gute gets credit for taking the risk. Now it needs to work or Gute won’t have a GM job.

[RashanGary]

Redundant

[RashanGary]

The other thing I like Gute doing is trading picks to up a round in next years draft. If he uses FA a little bit, that extra draft ammo will start to add up and make it possible.

He has a chance. He does not look over his head. Different than TT, but not in over his head. TT is a Sb winning GM. His own QB. His own team. Gute has a lot to prove but he could do it too. But even if he does, he shares some of the credit with TT.

[Joemailman]

rodgers contract, and age, dictated this was the year for the biggest move(s) alongs with matthews and cobb contracts being over. there'll be less room going forward. the next two drafts better be great or it will have all been for not.

I don't think it had much to do with Rodgers. It had more to do with Gutey realizing that the terrible 2014 and 2015 drafts had simply left too many holes in this roster. No longer being constrained by the Matthews and Cobb contracts gave him the room to maneuver.

[RashanGary]

I don't think it had much to do with Rodgers. It had more to do with Gutey realizing that the terrible 2014 and 2015 drafts had simply left too many holes in this roster. No longer being constrained by the Matthews and Cobb contracts gave him the room to maneuver.

This is pretty much it. Its only good if he’s right on the players. But it’s a good move to win football games. And because we don’t have anyone to resign from those drafts, that’s why we have the money.

[red]

I don't think it had much to do with Rodgers. It had more to do with Gutey realizing that the terrible 2014 and 2015 drafts had simply left too many holes in this roster. No longer being constrained by the Matthews and Cobb contracts gave him the room to maneuver.

yeah, he HAD to bring in OLBs because TT neglected it so badly the last few years

it seems like every year for as long as i can remember, we've been needing to address that position in the offseason

so new guy just did whats been obvious for too long

same with safety and o-line. you have a need, address it. seems simple enough

[RashanGary]

yeah, he HAD to bring in OLBs because TT neglected it so badly the last few years

you have a need, address it. seems simple enough


If it was that simple, everyone would be winning Super Bowls, red. Each team only gets so much money. Have to balance it right. It’s more complicated than just do whatever you want.

[RashanGary]

But TT did seem a little over zealous about adding random talent and not focusing on need. There is too much of a good thing, and TT did seem to cross a couple of those thresholds.

[Bretsky]

Tt gets unlimited credit for Aaron Rodgers. I am not giving ted too much credit for the next two years. I think his lack of recent success left gooter in a desperate situation th where he had to take some serious swings to hav a shot next year

[RashanGary]

Tt gets unlimited credit for Aaron Rodgers. I am not giving ted too much credit for the next two years. I think his lack of recent success left gooter in a desperate situation th where he had to take some serious swings to hav a shot next year

Tt left gooter with money to fix it though. TT was average after those first 5 years. Good at keeping himself financially able to make things happen and bad at acquiring talent at the end.

But Gute is in good shape right now. The money tt saved made up for those blah drafts.

And I’m actually optimistic that Gute made good decisions to right the ship. We have a shot.

[call_me_ishmael]

I pretty much align with everyone else. I don’t see an alternative that isn’t for sure wasting at least 2019-2020 for Rodgers. They needed talent badly. My gut feeling is only one of the two will see the end of the contract and they still pick a pass rusher of some sort at #12. I don’t mind the signings at all, but the guard did have me raise an eye brow at the cost for a no name back up player. I hope the theme of the team is build the trenches this year because that is a bad contract it appears and paying Bulaga again seems dicey

[pbmax]

jones has always overspent. he's kept his guys too long too. everyone should take a page out the hoodie book of winning and trade off some of their high-priced assets for good draft position like the pats have been doing year after year.

I agree. I wonder what NE was offering for Cobb?

[pbmax]

Ah, the heady days of arguing about keeping Wahle and Rivera. In 2005. A year before this board got going.

Kinda funny to think we were already arguing in hindsight, then again, the drafting of Logan Mankins seemed important to someone.

Not so funny that 13 years have passes since those arguments. I'm gonna go to bed.

[pbmax]

For 1, TT gets credit for part of these next two years. It was his responsibility to the long term that made this possible.


Ted isn't going to get credit for the next 2 years after the last 2 years. Too many roster holes were detected and not fixed.

Its all Gute from here on in.

[RashanGary]

Ted isn't going to get credit for the next 2 years after the last 2 years. Too many roster holes were detected and not fixed.

Its all Gute from here on in.

It doesn’t matter who gives him credit. He left Gute in a good cap situation whether people see it or not. I’m not here to win popularity contests or see how many agree. I’m here to call it as I see it whether anyone agrees or not.

[call_me_ishmael]

He left Gooter in a good cap situation? I mean, he let some _really_ good players walk out the door with no compensation and left the cupboard basically bare outside of LT, WR and QB. That's a pretty hot take. Thompson has been a disaster the past 5 years. I did a detailed analysis that basically shows this.

The Packers should have won it in 2014. Gonna haunt all parties forever. Gotta wonder if MM is still here if they had.

[RashanGary]

He left Gooter in a good cap situation? I mean, he let some _really_ good players walk out the door with no compensation and left the cupboard basically bare outside of LT, WR and QB. That's a pretty hot take. Thompson has been a disaster the past 5 years. I did a detailed analysis that basically shows this.

The Packers should have won it in 2014. Gonna haunt all parties forever. Gotta wonder if MM is still here if they had.


Theres a lot that goes into it. Without that money, Gute couldn’t do what he did. So tt set that up for him.

[call_me_ishmael]

Theres a lot that goes into it. Without that money, Gute couldn’t do what he did. So tt set that up for him.

That's sort of like saying "Hey, we broke into your house and stole all your shit, so now you have all of this room (empty space) and this great insurance money to replace it all". Sounds horrible.

[RashanGary]

That's sort of like saying "Hey, we broke into your house and stole all your shit, so now you have all of this room (empty space) and this great insurance money to replace it all". Sounds horrible.

That’s cool if you see it that way, but I see it nothing like that. I see it as, yeah, I had two bad drafts, but I left you with a whole bunch of money to sign free agents. It’s very different

It’s more like, you have a bare house but a bunch of money to buy new stuff. That’s the proper analogy.

[pbmax]

He left Gooter in a good cap situation? I mean, he let some _really_ good players walk out the door with no compensation and left the cupboard basically bare outside of LT, WR and QB. That's a pretty hot take. Thompson has been a disaster the past 5 years. I did a detailed analysis that basically shows this.



And Center. And DL. Linsley is Pro Bowl level Center. Daniels and Clark are both very good. Clark will be an All Pro on his trajectory.

You could almost say 1/2 Guard too IF, and its a big IF, Taylor regains form after some injuries and a bad year.

[RashanGary]

And Center. And DL. Linsley is Pro Bowl level Center. Daniels and Clark are both very good. Clark will be an All Pro on his trajectory.

You could almost say 1/2 Guard too IF, and its a big IF, Taylor regains form after some injuries and a bad year.

That and a whole bunch of spending money. TTs luster wore off. It was time. But he still left a decent situation with enough money for a quick turnaround.

[run pMc]

I see it as GB spent great-player money on good players who are young and *might* ascend. In other words, they overspent but that's how first-week FA goes.
They had the cap space because (a) TT/Ball historically eschewed high priced FA with a few exceptions, and (b) they tended to re-sign their own players but haven't had many worth keeping from recent drafts. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

2015 is getting attention again because of Jake Ryan signing with JAX. I think if your drafts suck you will eventually end up sitting out the playoffs and with enough cap space to overspend in FA.

[call_me_ishmael]

And Center. And DL. Linsley is Pro Bowl level Center. Daniels and Clark are both very good. Clark will be an All Pro on his trajectory.

You could almost say 1/2 Guard too IF, and its a big IF, Taylor regains form after some injuries and a bad year.

Yeah you're right, those positions are in good shape too. Kenny Clark is a very good player everyone says so I'm totally on board there.

[Fritz]

With all due respect, Patler, but you lost all credibility regarding the cap when you argued -and was mathematically debunked- that it was impossible for Todd to retain both Wahle and Rivera, as well as Shaper.

Leave salary cap analysis to burger-flipping losers who have passed all 4 sections of the CPA (cap proficiency assessment) exams.

The cap can always be cooked. The networks will always bail out teams, at least until, Zeus-willing, capitalism collapses. There’s no such thing as a cap hell anymore.

The cap ain’t preventing Jerry Jones from building a team full of highly paid superstars. Instead, Jones refrains from doing so cos he’s a greed-fucked fishmonger, just like all the other greed-fucked fishmongers in the greed-fucked league.

The more expensive the player, the less profit, err, fish the fishmonger takes home.

When I first read the boldface type above, I thought maybe I was in some strange alternative universe in which the likes of Patler are crap-slinging shooters while Tank is some buttoned-down CPA who just spent the last ten hours going over the minutae of the cap situation using a variety of highly-respected sources.

That is one strange world, that place. I think I saw the Cowardly Lion there, then tesselated across two universes and ended up in another in which cricket was the world's most popular sport.

[Carolina_Packer]

That’s cool if you see it that way, but I see it nothing like that. I see it as, yeah, I had two bad drafts, but I left you with a whole bunch of money to sign free agents. It’s very different

It’s more like, you have a bare house but a bunch of money to buy new stuff. That’s the proper analogy.

TT was furnishing the house from Target and Goodwill and then Gutey decided to shop at Restoration Hardware.

[MadScientist]

Basically this is the money they would have spent on their own players if Randall, Rollins, Montgomery and Ryan were good players that they wanted to keep. This is what Gute had to do in order to have a chance to field a competitive football team this year. If he hits, the Packers are in very good shape for the next 2-3 years. If he totally whiffs, next year and the year after will probably be a struggle.

[pbmax]

Basically this is the money they would have spent on their own players if Randall, Rollins, Montgomery and Ryan were good players that they wanted to keep. This is what Gute had to do in order to have a chance to field a competitive football team this year. If he hits, the Packers are in very good shape for the next 2-3 years. If he totally whiffs, next year and the year after will probably be a struggle.

Its good that Micah Hyde's money was spent on a Packer somewhere.

[red]

i don't have the numbers in front of me, but TT went into every offseason with lots of free cap, and never used it for help

he mostly used that money to re sign his own shitty players that he drafted

so i wouldn't say TT planned this all out to leave the team with a decent cap situation

it was just a byproduct of they way he worked

[HarveyWallbangers]

And Center. And DL. Linsley is Pro Bowl level Center. Daniels and Clark are both very good. Clark will be an All Pro on his trajectory.

You could almost say 1/2 Guard too IF, and its a big IF, Taylor regains form after some injuries and a bad year.

My prediction is that Lane Taylor doesn't start this year. I don't think he fits the system. Turner and a rookie OR a sleeper like Siragusa starts.

[pbmax]

My prediction is that Lane Taylor doesn't start this year. I don't think he fits the system. Turner and a rookie OR a sleeper like Siragusa starts.

More importantly, can Lucas Patrick make the transition? :lol: Because he was the only RG who could pass block last year. And that was after the concussion. He seems just the right amount of playing angry.

But seriously, sometimes ZBS teams need to adjust on the fly to less than ideal OL components for a year. I mean, how is Bulaga gonna look cutting off the backside?

Taylor was a force in pass blocking until he got banged up last year. Its possible he was exposed, but he looked pretty good for two years before the cracks showed. In that weird way, I hope he does get surpassed because the guy behind him is better. But I will believe it when I see it.

[Joemailman]

My prediction is that Lane Taylor doesn't start this year. I don't think he fits the system. Turner and a rookie OR a sleeper like Siragusa starts.

Isn't Siragusa more of a phone booth type of guy? I wouldn't think he's a great fit either.

[call_me_ishmael]

My prediction is that Lane Taylor doesn't start this year. I don't think he fits the system. Turner and a rookie OR a sleeper like Siragusa starts.

Are you thinking he's too slow?

[RashanGary]

Are you thinking he's too slow?

When MM first got here we had an outside zone system under Jeff jagozinski. It requires athletes who can flow in either direction and block on the move. Balance, coordination, agility more than speed, but usually guys who are athletic that way are also fast. Taylor isn’t an incredibly athletic lineman at a glance, but he might be able to do it.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Isn't Siragusa more of a phone booth type of guy? I wouldn't think he's a great fit either.

That appears to be the scouting report of him coming out of college, but I heard contrary reports after we signed him. Comparison:

Siragusa = 6'4" 319, 5.35 40, 32" vertical, 110" broad jump, 7.71 3 cone, 4.56 shuttle at Combine (4th round pick)
Taylor = 6'3" 324, 5.35 40, 24.5" vertical, 96" broad jump, 8.41 3 cone, 4.72 shuttle, 1.88 10, 3.07 20 at Pro Day (UDFA)

Outside of the 40 (I'd like to look at the 10 and 20 splits, but I didn't find them for Siragusa), Taylor was not in the same strastosphere as Siragusa as an athlete. And that's with Taylor's results from OSU Pro Day (which is less reliable).

Patrick tested similarly as Siragusa at his Pro Day

Patrick = 6'3" 313, 5.26 40, 29" vertical, 106" broad jump, 7.77 3 cone, 4.66 shuttle, 1.60 10, 2.74 20 at Pro Day (UDFA)

And here's how Billy Turner tested:

Turner = 6'5" 315, 5.16 40, 28" vertical, 108" broad jump, 7.92 3 cone, 4.71 shuttle at Combine (3rd round pick)

Taylor sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of the guys.

[Fritz]

Hate on me all you want, but it seems to me that Jason Spriggs might fit this system perfectly. Dude could flourish in this kind of blocking scheme.

[Deputy Nutz]

Funny how these conversations always regurgitate after 5 or 6 years. We are back to what linemen fit the zone blocking scheme better. If you watch college football the majority of teams all run zbs. The Badgers have made their name on the ZBS and none of their offensive linemen are speed demons. Speed has nothing to do with it. It is all technique and every linemen needs to watch film and understand their opponents front seven. Most linemen understand the concepts more than one would think.

[pbmax]

Funny how these conversations always regurgitate after 5 or 6 years. We are back to what linemen fit the zone blocking scheme better. If you watch college football the majority of teams all run zbs. The Badgers have made their name on the ZBS and none of their offensive linemen are speed demons. Speed has nothing to do with it. It is all technique and every linemen needs to watch film and understand their opponents front seven. Most linemen understand the concepts more than one would think.

Its not speed but they do have to move, hit and then for one or two of them, move/disengage, locate and hit again.

But the 40 times probably aren't the measure we are looking for.

[pbmax]

Hate on me all you want, but it seems to me that Jason Spriggs might fit this system perfectly. Dude could flourish in this kind of blocking scheme.

He's got one last chance. Has to learn how to lock guys up and also anchor against power.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Hate on me all you want, but it seems to me that Jason Spriggs might fit this system perfectly. Dude could flourish in this kind of blocking scheme.

I hate you, but it has nothing to do with Spriggs.

[Cheesehead Craig]

When I first read the boldface type above, I thought maybe I was in some strange alternative universe in which the likes of Patler are crap-slinging shooters while Tank is some buttoned-down CPA who just spent the last ten hours going over the minutae of the cap situation using a variety of highly-respected sources.

That is one strange world, that place. I think I saw the Cowardly Lion there, then tesselated across two universes and ended up in another in which cricket was the world's most popular sport.

I don't even think the Beatles came with stuff like that during the Strawberry Fields days.

Some people will just hang on to whatever delusions help them sleep at night I guess.

[run pMc]

Hate on me all you want, but it seems to me that Jason Spriggs might fit this system perfectly. Dude could flourish in this kind of blocking scheme.

The same thought occurred to me about Spriggs. The hate is another story. :P
As for Badger or other OL, 40 time is not as important as the agility measurements (3c, ss), which in turn aren't as important as the film IMO. I don't think having Taylor as a starter is going to prevent them from seeing what he can do best, but the ability to hit on the move and keep balance will be important.
I think they'll draft 2 OL even with signing Turner to provide depth and competition. Turner feels like the penciled starter at RG and emergency RT, and they're probably going to look at upgrading LG & RT. Makes sense to keep Bulaga: he's cheaper than Turner, and even if you can only count on him for 12 games, that buys them time to coach up a rookie to replace him.

Knowing how these things go, Spriggs probably has a monster year and we all gnash teeth over contracts and whether to keep him.

[bobblehead]

[QUOTE=Fritz;1005579]Patler, I came to the same conclusion. Rare it is for a Packer GM not named Sherman to back-load contracts and hope you or someone else can clean up the mess down the road.

However, the article also mentions what would seem to be the reason for this: an aging Aaron Rodgers. This is a short-term strategy, which was the opposite of Thompson's way of working.

Let's hope it results in a Super Bowl championship in the next two to three years, cuz if it doesn't, it looks like we're going back to the days of dead money and no talent.

I can see why Gutekunst would do it. It's Rodgers or bust, at this point.[/QUOT

Agreed, much similarity to Sherman, even the reasons for doing it. Favre was at the same stage of his career, and Sherman was trying to make the most of it. Hopefully, Smith I & II and Amos don't turn out to be 2019 versions of Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Mark Roman or John Thierry.

Those were old guys, these are young ascending guys.

I only mind spending money when it will cost you some of your own (or you overpaid for guys). I don't see this costing us Clark or anyone I really want to keep because we simply are devoid of talent atm. I think we overpaid a bit for these guys, and I prefer TT's approach, but TT also depended on drafting really well....something he did other than 2015. 16/17 were decent, but not stellar. That meant we had a big hole in the "re sign" of the 2015 class. We filled it...probably over filled it, but since 16/17 were merely ok we shouldn't end up losing anyone I really value.

Now we need 2 good drafts and we can get back in the Owl.

[bobblehead]

I don't think it had much to do with Rodgers. It had more to do with Gutey realizing that the terrible 2014 and 2015 drafts had simply left too many holes in this roster. No longer being constrained by the Matthews and Cobb contracts gave him the room to maneuver.

2 10yr starters who are borderline all pro doesn't make a terrible draft.

Look at it this way. 2015 was a lost draft. What if we had drafted both smiths and amos in 2015. We would be giving them pretty close to what they just got.

[bobblehead]

I pretty much align with everyone else. I don’t see an alternative that isn’t for sure wasting at least 2019-2020 for Rodgers. They needed talent badly. My gut feeling is only one of the two will see the end of the contract and they still pick a pass rusher of some sort at #12. I don’t mind the signings at all, but the guard did have me raise an eye brow at the cost for a no name back up player. I hope the theme of the team is build the trenches this year because that is a bad contract it appears and paying Bulaga again seems dicey

He is no name to you. To people who like to watch the OL he is a good fit and a player that continually escalated his play. He is a perfect ZBS guard. I think we overpaid, but I don't know what anyone else was offering so.....

[bobblehead]

That's sort of like saying "Hey, we broke into your house and stole all your shit, so now you have all of this room (empty space) and this great insurance money to replace it all". Sounds horrible.

TT left a HOF QB, an all pro LT a pro bowl WR and ascending RB and C. Those are the cornerstone of a good offense. TT wasn't the same drafting D in recent years, this is true, but he was hardly the buccaneers.

[bobblehead]

Basically this is the money they would have spent on their own players if Randall, Rollins, Montgomery and Ryan were good players that they wanted to keep. This is what Gute had to do in order to have a chance to field a competitive football team this year. If he hits, the Packers are in very good shape for the next 2-3 years. If he totally whiffs, next year and the year after will probably be a struggle.

And then you trade ARod for a mountain of draft capital and begin the rebuild.

[bobblehead]

Its good that Micah Hyde's money was spent on a Packer somewhere.

That and Heyward were my 2 biggest gripes. Good solid football players that weren't paid good solid money. At the time I didn't realize how bad the cobb contract was. Perry was a lucky victim of circumstances. He would have gotten as much on the open market that year.

I still blame MM for losing Hyde instead of making him our safety.

[bobblehead]

i don't have the numbers in front of me, but TT went into every offseason with lots of free cap, and never used it for help

he mostly used that money to re sign his own shitty players that he drafted

so i wouldn't say TT planned this all out to leave the team with a decent cap situation

it was just a byproduct of they way he worked

We won an Owl, made the NFCC game 4? times from his shitty drafts. He signed Woodson and Peppers. I just can't say he drafted shitty players the whole time. Admitted he had a couple stinkers when he attempted to draft for need (probably because MM kept whining til he caved).

Sorry, I can't stand MM. If TT had cut ties with him after the Seattle debacle we might have 2 more Owls.

[bobblehead]

Hate on me all you want, but it seems to me that Jason Spriggs might fit this system perfectly. Dude could flourish in this kind of blocking scheme.

20 pounds ago...man is this guy unlucky with the way his career arc is playing out. MM "put some lead in those pants, I need an anchor dammit" M4 "dude, you gotta slim out and gain some mobility. We can wear down the DL so they can't overpower you."

[bobblehead]

Funny how these conversations always regurgitate after 5 or 6 years. We are back to what linemen fit the zone blocking scheme better. If you watch college football the majority of teams all run zbs. The Badgers have made their name on the ZBS and none of their offensive linemen are speed demons. Speed has nothing to do with it. It is all technique and every linemen needs to watch film and understand their opponents front seven. Most linemen understand the concepts more than one would think.

Thank you. If you are quick to a spot and can't lock onto a guy in space you have an issue. Technique trumps athlete. Ideally you get athletes with great technique. Bobbleheads rule when he gets an NFL GM job....ignore the 40!

[Fritz]

The same thought occurred to me about Spriggs. The hate is another story. :P
As for Badger or other OL, 40 time is not as important as the agility measurements (3c, ss), which in turn aren't as important as the film IMO. I don't think having Taylor as a starter is going to prevent them from seeing what he can do best, but the ability to hit on the move and keep balance will be important.
I think they'll draft 2 OL even with signing Turner to provide depth and competition. Turner feels like the penciled starter at RG and emergency RT, and they're probably going to look at upgrading LG & RT. Makes sense to keep Bulaga: he's cheaper than Turner, and even if you can only count on him for 12 games, that buys them time to coach up a rookie to replace him.

Knowing how these things go, Spriggs probably has a monster year and we all gnash teeth over contracts and whether to keep him.

Or, scenario two, the Packers finally, finally cut Spriggs, but then the Patriots pick him up and we all freak out about how Belichik is going to turn him into an All-Pro.

Like Breno Giacomini with the Seahawks.

[Deputy Nutz]

Its not speed but they do have to move, hit and then for one or two of them, move/disengage, locate and hit again.

But the 40 times probably aren't the measure we are looking for.

If you draft a lineman that can't get to the next level than I don't care what system you run that was a terrible draft pick

[call_me_ishmael]

[QUOTE=Patler;1005590]

Those were old guys, these are young ascending guys.

I only mind spending money when it will cost you some of your own (or you overpaid for guys). I don't see this costing us Clark or anyone I really want to keep because we simply are devoid of talent atm. I think we overpaid a bit for these guys, and I prefer TT's approach, but TT also depended on drafting really well....something he did other than 2015. 16/17 were decent, but not stellar. That meant we had a big hole in the "re sign" of the 2015 class. We filled it...probably over filled it, but since 16/17 were merely ok we shouldn't end up losing anyone I really value.

Now we need 2 good drafts and we can get back in the Owl.

I agree with this post aside from the commenting on drafting. TT was complete and total ass at drafting since 2012.

[call_me_ishmael]

TT left a HOF QB, an all pro LT a pro bowl WR and ascending RB and C. Those are the cornerstone of a good offense. TT wasn't the same drafting D in recent years, this is true, but he was hardly the buccaneers.

Yep, I don't disagree. One could even argue the RT is very, very good. It does beg the question. Is the cupboard bare, or was coaching just a major problem the past 3 years?

[3irty1]

Seems to me the spending spree the Packers just went on was more the consequence of sucking than part of some window-closing strategy. We had a lot of bad money tied up in the top of our roster and had to turn it over. FA is really the only way to do that. The hope is Gute can avoid being stuck in the bad team pattern of throwing good money after bad every few years because the homegrown talent never pans out.

As for blame games, be easy on Ted. It's not clear he was mentally fit enough to be culpable for the last few years of drafts, departures, and moves. I get the sense he was trusted to such a degree by Murphy and board that it was possible for him to just rot on the vine without any oversight. So no I wouldn't give him much credit for success going forward either. Maybe Russ Ball. As for Ted's drafts, I think they were generally well evaluated, well executed, but not very lucky. The 2013 draft is the epitome of Ted's work. Two years out that draft looked like an out-of-the-park home run: Jones, Lacy, Bakhitiari, Tretter, Hyde, Franklin, Barrington, even Charles Johnson. Two years later and Bakhtiari was last man standing. It was a comedy of stupid circumstances that ruined that class.

The drafting hasn't been great for a while, and there is absolutely no substitutes for good drafting, but we're in the situation we're in because we resigned the wrong guys too. Arguably we had all our eggs in the Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, and Cobb basket and Gute is just changing out the eggs.

[pbmax]

TT left a HOF QB, an all pro LT a pro bowl WR and ascending RB and C. Those are the cornerstone of a good offense. TT wasn't the same drafting D in recent years, this is true, but he was hardly the buccaneers.

Damn. Forgot about the running backs.

[pbmax]

If you draft a lineman that can't get to the next level than I don't care what system you run that was a terrible draft pick

Tell that to Mark Tauscher.

[pbmax]

Jason_OTC

Teams with the most new fully guaranteed salaries (and this will keep changing as free agency closes down)

1. Jets- $117M
2 Lions- $81.1M
3. Raiders- $69.5M
4. Bills- $65.1M
5. Jaguars- $58.7M
6. Packers- $57.5M
7. Broncos- $50M
8. Ravens- $48.5M
9. Eagles- $45.9M

[pbmax]

If you draft a lineman that can't get to the next level than I don't care what system you run that was a terrible draft pick

Going to be interesting to see Linsley in new offense. Wells was a master of the reach block. I haven’t watched Linsley enough in the run game to know if he can do it.

I don’t think he gets replaced but it will be interesting to watch.

[Deputy Nutz]

You can't get away with a feet shuffler at center. You need a dang athletic fella to play center in a zone blocking attack.

[texaspackerbacker]

Gutekunst's spending spree has gotten him compared to Mike Sherman in terms of skating the fine line of the cap. I saw that as a good thing back then, and I still see it as a good thing now. The huge difference between draft and develop and maximizing free agent spending is the idea that past performance is the best indicator of future performance. The Smith boys and Amos and Turner could still end up as real busts, but that is a whole lot less likely than depending on draft picks.

Also, some have talked about a "win now" mentality (like that's a bad thing hahahaha). All of these guys are young enough and locked up for long enough that the Packer D now has a solid chance to be top level for well beyond next season. We basically substituted Smith and Smith for Perry and Matthews and Amos for Clinton-Dix. Could anybody possibly not expect a serious upgrade from that?

[pbmax]

maximizing free agent spending is the idea that past performance is the best indicator of future performance.

In a League where the average length of career is 3 years? And even healthy, successful players reach their peak at 28 or 29?

Good luck with that tex.

[Joemailman]

In a League where the average length of career is 3 years? And even healthy, successful players reach their peak at 28 or 29?

Good luck with that tex.

Hence Gutey signing 26 year olds Smith, Smith and Amos instead of Justin Houston and Earl Thomas.

[pbmax]

Hence Gutey signing 26 year olds Smith, Smith and Amos instead of Justin Houston and Earl Thomas.

That is the bet. Weird thing is that the older guys are probably more predictable. Young guys might stay higher longer, but also have a bigger drop-off. There is a reason they are FAs.

[bobblehead]

You can't get away with a feet shuffler at center. You need a dang athletic fella to play center in a zone blocking attack.

Someone like..say...Tretter?

[texaspackerbacker]

In a League where the average length of career is 3 years? And even healthy, successful players reach their peak at 28 or 29?

Good luck with that tex.

I should have said RECENT past when it comes to football. I still say better odds for success than draft and develop, although if you work it right, you can have both.