First Round Pick 2019 #2, Darnell Savage

[pbmax]

A fine addition to the unit that has housed Scorpio Babers and Atari Bigby.

[pbmax]

Michael Cohen @Michael_Cohen13
Darnell Savage on the phone now. Says there wasn't much contact with the #Packers during the pre-draft process but he remembers seeing scouts at practice.

Michael Cohen @Michael_Cohen13
Savage: "I feel as if I'm extremely versatile. ... Always around the ball, always making plays. Just a play maker. I'm fast. I like to hit." #Packers

Michael Cohen @Michael_Cohen13
Savage says he can be a Day 1 starter in the NFL. "A confident person would say that. But at the end of the day, whatever role I'm assigned to, whatever I'm asked to do, I'm going to do it at the highest level." #Packers

Michael Cohen @Michael_Cohen13
Savage said he played cornerback as a freshman at Maryland. The coaches felt like he was smart enough and tackled well enough to play safety. "That added versatility that I have, I feel like that's an added strength to my game." #Packers

Michael Cohen @Michael_Cohen13
Savage on playing with Adrian Amos: "Hopefully we can build something special in Green Bay." #Packers

[Bretsky]

IMO he'll be our best 1st round draft pick today

[Fritz]

I liked Thornhill better. Is Savage instinctive, at all, or is he another great athlete who can't figure out how to take the correct angle?

Fuck.

[Bretsky]

I think Savage covers well and can lay some nice hits. I liked both as my top safeties.

[call_me_ishmael]

I liked Thornhill better. Is Savage instinctive, at all, or is he another great athlete who can't figure out how to take the correct angle?

Fuck.

It sounds like you're describing Nick Collins. The Packers are due for a win here. Have some faith and let the process play out.

[RashanGary]

Alexander and King run like deer. They can stick with guys down the sidelines. Savage is one of very few safeties in the NFL who’s both smart enough and fast enough to cover the deep middle by himself. Being able to play cover 1 opens up so many things. Instead of two players covering the deep middle, one guy is doing it. That’s an extra player free do do anything else. The packers just became one of a handful of teams that can employ cover 1 coverage with confidence.

It’s even better because now Adrian Amos and Tramon Williams (slot) are two very smart and savvy interior secondary players. These two can work together to create all sorts of chaos in the shallow to intermediate middle of the field.

We’re missing one piece to our back 7. We’re missing a bonafide pass defense linebacker to pair with Martinez. Drue Tranquill or Cody Barton would round out this draft and make me so excited for our pass defense, I won’t be able to contain it!

[call_me_ishmael]

I am amped about this dude. Can he be a poor man's Earl Thomas in terms of playing center field? He completely changes the defense if that's the case.

[Carolina_Packer]

My son really wanted Nassir Adderley, but didn't dislike the pick of Savage. How do you think Adderley compares to Savage?

[RashanGary]

I am amped about this dude. Can he be a poor man's Earl Thomas in terms of playing center field? He completely changes the defense if that's the case.

This is what I see. Scouts say he’s so fast and smart and hits and tackles. Earl Thomas is the guy i think of. So few teams have the players to play cover 1 defense. We just became one of the few. Pettine is gonna be able to do so many things with that extra defender.

[texaspackerbacker]

I don't know if it was necessary to trade up to get him, but I like this pick - fast and athletic. What he lacks in instinct playing next to Amos ought to help. As for the trade, I'd rather give up the two #4s than our second or third pick. We do NOT need quantity; We need just a little bit of additional quality.

The Nick Collins comparison occurred to me too - even before Harvey or whoever's combine stats. Hopefully that pans out. I remember when Collins was drafted, a lot of people questioned is football IQ, but he turned out pretty great anyway. Savage is supposed to be even more athletic and smart besides.

[MadScientist]

I'm fine with the guy they got, just a little dubious of giving up 2 4th to move up. If he's another Earl Thomas or Nick Collins then it's well worth it, but that's a high bar.

[Iron Mike]

I would die laughing if this MFer would come out for his interview with Larry McCarren sporting a cowboy hat and sunglasses:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Igui65gY5M

[wist43]

Love Savage...

Unfortunately he's tainted by the stench of the Gary pick.

Picking Gary at 12 will forever cast a dark cloud over this draft, no matter how good Gute does the rest of the way.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Love Savage...

Unfortunately he's tainted by the stench of the Gary pick.

Picking Gary at 12 will forever cast a dark cloud over this draft, no matter how good Gute does the rest of the way.

Find a way to draft Metcalf Friday night, and this draft class would reek A+

[Tony Oday]

Wist being a Packer fan forever cast a dark cloud.

Love both picks.

[mission]

I like this Savage pick... definitely reminds me some of Earl Thomas with maybe a little less ball skills.

[Deputy Nutz]

I really like Savage. I didn't understand a few weeks ago why there was no buzz about this guy, and then last weekend he went skyrocketing up draft boards. I really like the player, but dislike the pick. What I honestly think happened was that earlier in the draft the Steelers trade up in the draft and selected Devin Bush. I believe Bush was at the top of the Packers list. The Packers were not going to let another team jump or steal their top rated safety so they traded up 9 spots and took Savage. Those 4th round picks are pretty valuable especially looking at the group of inside linebackers available.

I don't understand moving up in the draft to take the first guy in the positional tier.

[bobblehead]

I really like Savage. I didn't understand a few weeks ago why there was no buzz about this guy, and then last weekend he went skyrocketing up draft boards. I really like the player, but dislike the pick. What I honestly think happened was that earlier in the draft the Steelers trade up in the draft and selected Devin Bush. I believe Bush was at the top of the Packers list. The Packers were not going to let another team jump or steal their top rated safety so they traded up 9 spots and took Savage. Those 4th round picks are pretty valuable especially looking at the group of inside linebackers available.

I don't understand moving up in the draft to take the first guy in the positional tier.

Its pretty simple really. If you are gutes, you better be correct. You waste draft capital to make this move you better have the best DB in this class or you are foolish. I hate picking Gary when we could have taken sweat or traded down. I understand the man is a freak at his size. His numbers were comparable to TJ Watt, but 20 pounds heavier. .3 seconds faster in a straight line. I hate trading capital to move up here when there were 4-5 comparable safeties imo. Gutes is trusting his evaluators and he thinks he got 2 incredible players. With a 12 pick that likely had value in a trade and then using 2 high 4ths to move up....you simply better be right.

[Packers4Glory]

Alexander and King run like deer. They can stick with guys down the sidelines. Savage is one of very few safeties in the NFL who’s both smart enough and fast enough to cover the deep middle by himself. Being able to play cover 1 opens up so many things. Instead of two players covering the deep middle, one guy is doing it. That’s an extra player free do do anything else. The packers just became one of a handful of teams that can employ cover 1 coverage with confidence.

It’s even better because now Adrian Amos and Tramon Williams (slot) are two very smart and savvy interior secondary players. These two can work together to create all sorts of chaos in the shallow to intermediate middle of the field.

We’re missing one piece to our back 7. We’re missing a bonafide pass defense linebacker to pair with Martinez. Drue Tranquill or Cody Barton would round out this draft and make me so excited for our pass defense, I won’t be able to contain it!
King? who the fuck is that? He's he that guy that is never on the field because his pussy hurts?

[bobblehead]

King? who the fuck is that? He's he that guy that is never on the field because his pussy hurts?

Guys get hurt. Guys stay healthy. See Hayward, Casey. Kings career has yet to be defined.

[mraynrand]

Its pretty simple really. If you are gutes, you better be correct. You waste draft capital to make this move you better have the best DB in this class or you are foolish. I hate picking Gary when we could have taken sweat or traded down. I understand the man is a freak at his size. His numbers were comparable to TJ Watt, but 20 pounds heavier. .3 seconds faster in a straight line. I hate trading capital to move up here when there were 4-5 comparable safeties imo. Gutes is trusting his evaluators and he thinks he got 2 incredible players. With a 12 pick that likely had value in a trade and then using 2 high 4ths to move up....you simply better be right.

Yep. You go Shermy, your players all have to pan out.

[Packers4Glory]

Guys get hurt. Guys stay healthy. See Hayward, Casey. Kings career has yet to be defined.

Pretty damn close as a guy who couldn't stay on the field.

[pbmax]

Wist being a Packer fan forever cast a dark cloud.

Love both picks.

Welcome to the optimist club.

Will you be returning to the pessimist club during the season? :D

[pbmax]

I really like Savage. I didn't understand a few weeks ago why there was no buzz about this guy, and then last weekend he went skyrocketing up draft boards. I really like the player, but dislike the pick. What I honestly think happened was that earlier in the draft the Steelers trade up in the draft and selected Devin Bush. I believe Bush was at the top of the Packers list. The Packers were not going to let another team jump or steal their top rated safety so they traded up 9 spots and took Savage. Those 4th round picks are pretty valuable especially looking at the group of inside linebackers available.

I don't understand moving up in the draft to take the first guy in the positional tier.

1. Pettine shopping list rather than tier: find me Ed Reed and not Clinton Dix or Calvin Pryor.

2. Its been reported before that what really happens after the combine when all these prospects start "moving" is that teams are meeting and coming to consensus rather than relying on draft pundits and tape eaters. So sometime after the combine, actual information about how teams view players starts to penetrate the media's skulls.

3. Still having a hard time believing that this team would take an ILB that early. But maybe he was.

[pbmax]

Its not BPA. Its just another version of what Ted was trying to do since 2011.

Its obvious where Savage fits in. Still a little unclear on where Gary fits in. But I suppose the coaches don't know yet either.

I'd bet its BPA from this point forward unless there is an OL they really want early in Round 2.

[Fritz]

If you spent two fourth round picks and a first round pick on a guy, he'd better be Ed Reed or Earl Thomas.

Bobble hit the nail on the head. Gute better be right on at least one of these two first round guys, or he might have a shorter GM career than the other (ex) Packer execs who are now running teams.

[mraynrand]

3. Still having a hard time believing that this team would take an ILB that early. But maybe he was.

Based on recent experience that the Steelers always take the guy I want the Packers to take, I have to believe they would have snapped him up if he dropped to them. After he was gone, I think they really went to the guy they thought was BPA/Best upside.

[Vincenzo]

IMO he'll be our best 1st round draft pick today
Gotta agree cuz Gary at #12 just doesn’t do it for many of us. Savage looks like a force to be dealt with!

[pbmax]

Based on recent experience that the Steelers always take the guy I want the Packers to take, I have to believe they would have snapped him up if he dropped to them. After he was gone, I think they really went to the guy they thought was BPA/Best upside.

Based on the recent experience of both defenses, they should stop listening to each other.

[pbmax]

Based on recent experience that the Steelers always take the guy I want the Packers to take, I have to believe they would have snapped him up if he dropped to them. After he was gone, I think they really went to the guy they thought was BPA/Best upside.

Would make me feel better if this is the case actually.

[mraynrand]

Would make me feel better if this is the case actually.

I think they were thinking "This is Kenny Clark on steroids" Well, maybe not steroids, but you get the point. He's an athletic freak with even more upside due to his age. We hope.

[bobblehead]

If you spent two fourth round picks and a first round pick on a guy, he'd better be Ed Reed or Earl Thomas.

Bobble hit the nail on the head. Gute better be right on at least one of these two first round guys, or he might have a shorter GM career than the other (ex) Packer execs who are now running teams.

As I just texted to a friend. You just lost 2...TWO chances at the next Lang or Bakhtiari to move up for Savage. You can't afford to miss on that move.

[bobblehead]

I think they were thinking "This is Kenny Clark on steroids" Well, maybe not steroids, but you get the point. He's an athletic freak with even more upside due to his age. We hope.

And lack of steroids or lifting regimen in general.

[3irty1]

I think it's long overdue that we stop thinking of drafting BPA and drafting need as ever being mutually exclusive.

[pbmax]

I think it's long overdue that we stop thinking of drafting BPA and drafting need as ever being mutually exclusive.

Sure, but you can only move around so much without losing value (and by that I mean pick value).

And its still better, no matter what your draft guidelines are, to get higher numbers of picks in a class.

[pbmax]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eaa4osa_00

[pbmax]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GMlVLVSx3Y

[pbmax]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6Yf7vib9lI

[pbmax]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/dougherty/2019/04/26/dougherty-packers-spring-surprises-further-bolstering-defense/3578261002/



Savage, in the meantime, is a center fielder at safety, which has been a hole in the Packers’ secondary for years in a league that becomes more passing oriented by the season. They might have had one on their roster in former first-rounder Damarious Randall but played him out of position at cornerback and then traded him away last year because former coach Mike McCarthy wanted him out of the locker room.

Though Savage wasn’t a big name in the media for much of the draft process, as the draft neared it became clear that teams regarded him highly and possibly even as a first-round pick. Gutekunst clearly targeted him, because a couple other free safeties of note (Virginia’s Juan Thornhill, Delaware’s Nasir Adderley and Florida's Chauncey Gardner-Johnson) were still on the board, too, and if nothing else the GM could have waited and gotten one of them at 30.

But Gutekunst felt so strongly about Savage’s speed (4.36 40) and playmaking (eight career interceptions) that he gave up two extra picks (fourth-rounders) to move ahead of a team or teams he suspected were going to draft Savage. It’s always good to have a safety who can outrun his mistakes, which Savage’s 4.36 speed suggest he can. In describing Savage, Gutekunst used a word, “rare,” that always jumps out coming from a scout.

“(Savage’s) athleticism, ability to cover ground and take the ball away we thought was rare,” the GM said.

[Fritz]

I think it's long overdue that we stop thinking of drafting BPA and drafting need as ever being mutually exclusive.

Well, after the Rashan Gary pick we now have a third way of thinking: drafting not BPA, not drafting need, but drafting stupid.

[mraynrand]

Savage is like a guided missile out there

[Fritz]

Savage is like a guided missile out there


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZsNXp7VMAAJNyd.jpg

[bobblehead]

I started thinking about this trade up. Its actually worse than I stated. He not only can't afford to be wrong, he also has to be better than right. Savage has to be better than Adderly/Thornhill and the rest. Gary has to be better than Burns/Sweat and others.

edit: In fairness he didn't give up other capital to take Gary though. If Gary turns into a really good pro and Sweat is an all pro its not so bad.

Last year I wanted Derwin James when we picked. We sure could have used him last year. In the end, Gutes was the winner though as Alexander was a stud and we get to have the conversation about how stupid he used the capital he acquired in that deal. Hope I feel humbled next year at this time.

[mraynrand]

...

wrong missile, wrong guide

[3irty1]

Sure, but you can only move around so much without losing value (and by that I mean pick value).

And its still better, no matter what your draft guidelines are, to get higher numbers of picks in a class.

The value of the picks for trading purposes assume a perfect Pareto distribution of talent. 250 guys will never form such a perfectly tier-less distribution, especially when talent is evaluated across different positions by teams with different preferences. The real value of picks has to do with where they intersect with one's own tiers (ideally to maximize value you'd move up and/or down as much as possible to choose the last remaining guys in your tier). It's safe to say that every deal made during the draft is a win/win according to those making the deal, so doesn't it stand to reason that every move in the draft yields value? Anything else seems to me a roundabout way of expressing no confidence in the GM which at this point would be based not on his track record but on how his evaluations compare with that of the draft media and/or youtube scouts. An assumption I make is that even the least competent NFL scouting team and GM exceed the expertise and preparations of the draft media. So what is a fan to think?

When I was a child I youtube scouted like a child; when I became a man I could no longer be heartbroken by a GM's draft choice.

[gbgary]

he makes the db group very versatile along with amos (plays both safety possessions), alexander (plays slot and o/s), and savage being able to play slot, cb, or fs.

[pbmax]

The value of the picks for trading purposes assume a perfect Pareto distribution of talent. 250 guys will never form such a perfectly tier-less distribution, especially when talent is evaluated across different positions by teams with different preferences. The real value of picks has to do with where they intersect with one's own tiers (ideally to maximize value you'd move up and/or down as much as possible to choose the last remaining guys in your tier). It's safe to say that every deal made during the draft is a win/win according to those making the deal, so doesn't it stand to reason that every move in the draft yields value? Anything else seems to me a roundabout way of expressing no confidence in the GM which at this point would be based not on his track record but on how his evaluations compare with that of the draft media and/or youtube scouts. An assumption I make is that even the least competent NFL scouting team and GM exceed the expertise and preparations of the draft media. So what is a fan to think?

When I was a child I youtube scouted like a child; when I became a man I could no longer be heartbroken by a GM's draft choice.

I don't think most trades work that way. Teams want to trade down who either see too many players in one tier at the current spot or see no one in the proper tier. Ted trading up to get Spriggs is the perfect example of moving to get a tier and a pick aligned with a need but it seems to have been a terrible price to pay.

If you went for maximizing talent by tier and always traded down, you could combine efficient pick position with efficient talent collection. But you would be hard pressed to get to the top tiers of talent.

[Fritz]

wrong missile, wrong guide

Well, he was wearing green. It was the best I could do.

I agree with Bobble's analysis on the pick - he's got to prove to be better, by quite a bit, than guys like Thornhill and Gardner-Thompson and Adderly - and as a Packers' beat writer pointed out this morning, for the price paid he'd better be ready to come in and start right away and not blow assignments all the time. If you picked him to develop slowly, like Nick Collins, you paid a mighty price in current assets for a long-term payoff.

[Bretsky]

Ton of stellar NFL players are getting drafted in round 4 today

[pbmax]

Gute is listening to you complainers:

Kelly Price @thekellyprice
Gutekunst is asked about that trade up for Darnell Savage yesterday: “I know for a fact we wouldn’t have gotten him at 30.”

Now for the rumors we can all quote for the next 10 years:

@tdpPACKERSfan @pickAdevin
Oak took abram, if gb didnt trade up for savage, oak takes him if indy didnt. Oak coached senior bowl, savage was a star there

DON'T KNOW WHO THIS GUY IS BUT SEEMS TRUSTWORTHY, NO?

[mraynrand]

Well, he was wearing green. It was the best I could do.

I agree with Bobble's analysis on the pick - he's got to prove to be better, by quite a bit, than guys like Thornhill and Gardner-Thompson and Adderly - and as a Packers' beat writer pointed out this morning, for the price paid he'd better be ready to come in and start right away and not blow assignments all the time. If you picked him to develop slowly, like Nick Collins, you paid a mighty price in current assets for a long-term payoff.

Asking any rookie to be a solid starter at safety right away is a big deal. If he can fill that roll and make a few plays this year, that would be tremendous. There will always be the comparisons, but so long as he's a solid starter who signs his second contract, I won't be festering over comparisons to Adderall, Sellers or Northbynorthwest.

[Fritz]

Asking any rookie to be a solid starter at safety right away is a big deal. If he can fill that roll and make a few plays this year, that would be tremendous. There will always be the comparisons, but so long as he's a solid starter who signs his second contract, I won't be festering over comparisons to Adderall, Sellers or Northbynorthwest.

This only proves you are weak in your fandom.

You need to obsess over this. Hold those grudges, nurse them. Pounce on evidence that supports your view; ignore or explain away evidence that contradicts your view.

And then there is my secret weapon: forgetfulness. If, for example, Rashan Gary turns out to be all-world, I will bank on my fellow Packerrats forgetting how I've gone off the deep end these past two days, and in due time I will be able to quietly assert that I knew all along, having watched Gary at Michigan, that he would blossom with good coaching and a position change.

I can coach you up, Ayn. You have potential, though you tend to stubbornly see all this as a mere pastime, opinions subject to our personal whims. You also tend to try to see the big picture and put things into context. But I can coach you out of all that.

Here. Fill in these blanks:

___________________, the Packers' draft pick this year, is going to be the best/worst [circle one] _______________________ they've ever had. I am absolutely/positively/undoubtedly [circle two] able to guarantee this. Just you wait and see, PB/Harv/Tank/Fritz/Ishmael [circle name of poster/posters who disagree with you].

See? You're on your way!

[George Cumby]

Gute is listening to you complainers:

Kelly Price @thekellyprice
Gutekunst is asked about that trade up for Darnell Savage yesterday: “I know for a fact we wouldn’t have gotten him at 30.”

Now for the rumors we can all quote for the next 10 years:

@tdpPACKERSfan @pickAdevin
Oak took abram, if gb didnt trade up for savage, oak takes him if indy didnt. Oak coached senior bowl, savage was a star there

DON'T KNOW WHO THIS GUY IS BUT SEEMS TRUSTWORTHY, NO?

The fact that Gruden was going to take the kid isn't particularly confidence inspiring.

[Fritz]

The fact that Gruden was going to take the kid isn't particularly confidence inspiring.

Great post.

[bobblehead]

Ton of stellar NFL players are getting drafted in round 4 today

To feel worse, go check out the draft positions of our 3 expensive Defensive FAs from this offseason.

[bobblehead]

Gute is listening to you complainers:

Kelly Price @thekellyprice
Gutekunst is asked about that trade up for Darnell Savage yesterday: “I know for a fact we wouldn’t have gotten him at 30.”

Now for the rumors we can all quote for the next 10 years:

@tdpPACKERSfan @pickAdevin
Oak took abram, if gb didnt trade up for savage, oak takes him if indy didnt. Oak coached senior bowl, savage was a star there

DON'T KNOW WHO THIS GUY IS BUT SEEMS TRUSTWORTHY, NO?

Abram isn't the same kind of safety Savage is so I put nothing into this.

[pbmax]

Fritz, I can forgive you for the passion and defeatism with Gary, but its going to be, ah, difficult, to move past the boxer-brief pic.

[pbmax]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZsNXp7VMAAJNyd.jpg


Pic 6 at most.

[Fritz]

Fritz, I can forgive you for the passion and defeatism with Gary, but its going to, ah, difficult, to move past the boxer-brief pic.

Somebody wrote "guided missile," and I just thought a visual would help our readers here. And he is wearing green.

[3irty1]

I don't think most trades work that way. Teams want to trade down who either see too many players in one tier at the current spot or see no one in the proper tier. Ted trading up to get Spriggs is the perfect example of moving to get a tier and a pick aligned with a need but it seems to have been a terrible price to pay.

If you went for maximizing talent by tier and always traded down, you could combine efficient pick position with efficient talent collection. But you would be hard pressed to get to the top tiers of talent.

No one in the proper tier? What does that mean?

Trading down to get one of the last guys in your tier looks like taking an extra pick to let the bones decide who in your tier you'll end up with. Moving up to grab the last guy in your tier looks like waiting until a tier is mostly gone, maybe even down to the last guy who has fallen quite a bit, and picking up the phone to go get him. Both seem like value to me. Need has to be somewhat baked into the cake when ranking these guys to begin with.

[pbmax]

No one in the proper tier? What does that mean?

.

You are sitting at pick 24 and no one left on the board carries first round grade. Ideally, you want to trade down into the late first/early second to get an extra pick.

[3irty1]

You are sitting at pick 24 and no one left on the board carries first round grade. Ideally, you want to trade down into the late first/early second to get an extra pick.

"First round grade" makes sense when comparing players across drafts, but in a given draft the useful comparison isn't to the platonic 1st round player but to the other players in this draft class. Regardless of grades, there will be 32 first round selections. But when you rank the players against each other they'll land in tiers, not rounds. By pick 24 it's probably true that the top 10 tiers are gone. If the last player from tier 10 was chosen at pick 23, you've got maybe 5 or 6 guys of interchangeable value in tier 11 to choose from. Not great. While that situation was unfolding you should have been trying to trade up or down. Alternatively lets say there is just one player left in what you've deemed tier 11 left in which case you've got to feel great about the value. You do need to compare players across different drafts but really only to decide the value of picks from next year's draft since trading for those is an option. I see no reason why picks from next year wouldn't also be on your draft board in a tier of equivalent value.

[run pMc]

I see no reason why picks from next year wouldn't also be on your draft board in a tier of equivalent value.

I can think of one - you don't know where in a round that pick will be.
Big difference between drafting in top and bottom of most rounds. That said, you could probably come up with an expected range and thus assign a value. I understand what pbmax is getting at: if you're sitting at 24 and there are only 22 players with a first-round grade, you may want to consider trading up to get one of them, or maybe trading down a few spots because there are a bunch of players in the tier you could choose from and you're willing to let them fall to you in exchange for extra picks.

Trading for future picks like what Gute did last year is a gamble since the team you traded with could do really well (as NO did) and leave you with a later pick than you'd hoped.

[3irty1]

That's true, but this is uncertainty that you can bake into the cake when determining value. The scenario of you pick 24 and there are only 22 players with a first round grade seems to me to be using "first round grade" as a crude euphemism for tier. My point is that when evaluating players in a draft class you want them evaluated #1 through #250-something by their relative value to your football team. In that process there will be judgements that are too close to call aka tiers where a handful of players are considered interchangeable in value. Navigating the draft around those tiers, which are unknown to us, is where you can get bang for your buck in the draft. When I see someone move up or down in the draft, I think it must be assumed that both parties involved in the trade consider themselves to have gotten better value because of that trade. Both parties can be right about that too.

[Fritz]

Funny, when the pundits talk about the key to the draft's success, and the key to the defense, they don't talk about the Packers' #12 overall pick...they talk about Savage.

I hope this dude is all that and a bag of rocks. They need a safety in the worst way.

I hope they also move Josh Jones to ILB and teach Josh Jackson to play safety.

[3irty1]

Funny, when the pundits talk about the key to the draft's success, and the key to the defense, they don't talk about the Packers' #12 overall pick...they talk about Savage.

I hope this dude is all that and a bag of rocks. They need a safety in the worst way.

I hope they also move Josh Jones to ILB and teach Josh Jackson to play safety.

Gary has fallen from tragically bad pick to He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named?

[Fritz]

Gary has fallen from tragically bad pick to He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named?

Nah, it's fine. After he starts missing games and practices for undisclosed injuries, or gets easily stonewalled by an offensive tackle, you'll be calling him other names, anyway.

As for names, I hoped the Pack would draft Dru Tranquill, so the Packers could be Tranquill and Savage on the field at the same time. Alas.

[pbmax]

"First round grade" makes sense when comparing players across drafts, but in a given draft the useful comparison isn't to the platonic 1st round player but to the other players in this draft class. Regardless of grades, there will be 32 first round selections. But when you rank the players against each other they'll land in tiers, not rounds. By pick 24 it's probably true that the top 10 tiers are gone. If the last player from tier 10 was chosen at pick 23, you've got maybe 5 or 6 guys of interchangeable value in tier 11 to choose from. Not great. While that situation was unfolding you should have been trying to trade up or down. Alternatively lets say there is just one player left in what you've deemed tier 11 left in which case you've got to feel great about the value. You do need to compare players across different drafts but really only to decide the value of picks from next year's draft since trading for those is an option. I see no reason why picks from next year wouldn't also be on your draft board in a tier of equivalent value.

I don't think we are saying anything different when using tier versus round grades on players in a given draft. A round grade gives you the tier AND the comparison to previous years. Maybe that gives you more info, maybe it leads to bad decisions, but I think they are quite comparable. I'd like the idea that tiers of players would lead to smaller groups, but I am not sure pre-draft scouting gives that kind specificity with confidence.

So you are sitting at 24 and the top tier(s) is(are) off the board? A round 2 grade or dropping a tier doesn't mean you don't pick a guy or move immediately to Round 2, any pick there will do. It means you should definitely explore moving down if you can stay with the same tier/grade because you are at the lower end of the value proposition.

[mraynrand]

. By pick 24 it's probably true that the top 10 tiers are gone.

That's a lot of tiers

[3irty1]

That's a lot of tiers

I think it's probably conservative. The NFL draft trade chart values are a Pareto distribution for a reason. I said before that I doubt the players in a given draft ever conform perfectly to such a distribution, but they won't be that far off either. No matter what skill you care about for a given population it's going to look similar.

http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/draft-value-chart-2.png

At the top of the draft the disparities between players should be easiest to tease out. There are probably "tiers" that consist of just one player. I'd expect tiers to get larger and larger as the draft goes on and players become more and more interchangeable in value. Pick 24 is not a high first round pick, but its a high pick.

[Joemailman]

Savage has signed his contract. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001029821/article/packers-sign-firstrounder-darnell-savage-to-contract

[Joemailman]

That's a lot of tiers

96 all together.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeolH-kzx4c

[mraynrand]

^^^^. Hahahahaha

[pbmax]

Either terrible editing or the two guitarists are playing a different song than the singer is singing. Like watching Keith Moon drum in a 60s music video.

[pbmax]

To be honest, I would expect pro scouting staffs to be able to reliably tease out 4 tiers from that spread.

[George Cumby]

96 all together.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeolH-kzx4c

roflmao