Most Questionable Picks in 2019 NFL Draft Round One

[Bretsky]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2019/04/26/nfl-draft-2019-these-most-questionable-picks-first-round/3568195002/

[Joemailman]

So....because the Packers picked Gary because of perceived upside rather because he fills a need, it's a questionable pick? Yawn.

[Radagast]

Many seasons ago GB picked a first round player that was supposed to overpower the competition. He turned out to be a big BUST. His name was Tony Mandarich. After getting burned so badly on a player in the past, it must be understandable how some are not willing to give Gary their stamp of approval. As for me, I would not have picked him, but still I will reserve any judgements on him until there is something to judge. IMO, a high 1st round draft pick should be a near starter and get better over their first 4 seasons. Gary is going to be in a white hot spotlight where everything he does is going to be looked at seriously.

A first round draft pick, especially a high one, is a very valuable thing. He is not like some 5th rounder that would be lucky to make this team or any teams roster. He is expected to be a strong position player for 10 to 12 or more seasons. While I hope Gary fits this mold, I remain sceptical about him.

[texaspackerbacker]

It's just possible performance enhancing drugs and performing worse with out them had just a little bit to do with the Mandarich debacle. Gary seems a lot less likely to be a product of chemicals, and I assume the Packers did proper checking up to be confident of that.

[RashanGary]

I’m excited for this one to play out.

[Upnorth]

I expect Gary to do well, and improve the players around him. Excited to see what we can do with Clark and the Smiths and Gary.

And I love being a packer fan, where getting the 12th overall pick is considered a high first round pick. It is in the middle third of picks in the round, so maybe high to us and a few other teams yet just an average first round pick to most teams.

[mraynrand]

It's just possible performance enhancing drugs and performing worse with out them had just a little bit to do with the Mandarich debacle.

Ya think? Have patience, Mr. Brownstone. It's so easy to be one in a million when you're on steroids.

[red]

I would just like to point out to whoever told me a week ago that they have never heard Gary referred to as a project, that this article clearly calls him a project

[MadScientist]

So....because the Packers picked Gary because of perceived upside rather because he fills a need, it's a questionable pick? Yawn.

The author also faulted Denver for not reaching on a QB in the first. Reaching on a QB is up there with land wars in Asia and going against a Sicilian when death is on the line as things to never do.

[Zool]

The author also faulted Denver for not reaching on a QB in the first. Reaching on a QB is up there with land wars in Asia and going against a Sicilian when death is on the line as things to never do.

You truly have a dizzying intellect

[George Cumby]

Inconceivable.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Don't make me call the brute squad.

[RashanGary]

List of Packer high round draft pick “projects” that turned out recently


Aaron Rodgers
Nick Collins
Jordy Nelson
Davante Adams
Clay Matthews
Kenny Clark

That’s just rattling off the top of my head. Gary is gonna to be a powerful dude in year 1, but maybe it takes him 2 or 3 years to reach full potential. That’s ok.

[texaspackerbacker]

I'm with you on a lot of things you say, Justin, but calling those guys "projects"? That's a real stretch. Collins, maybe; Clark, probably not. "Projects", I would think, are players chosen way earlier than most people project. The others were mostly picked about where they were expected to go, and some were seen as real bargains - like the consensus toss up to be the first overall pick being taken at #21 or whatever.

[hoosier]

I'm with you on a lot of things you say, Justin, but calling those guys "projects"? That's a real stretch. Collins, maybe; Clark, probably not. "Projects", I would think, are players chosen way earlier than most people project. The others were mostly picked about where they were expected to go, and some were seen as real bargains - like the consensus toss up to be the first overall pick being taken at #21 or whatever.

I think you just reiterated his point.

[mraynrand]

"Projects", I would think, are players chosen way earlier than most people project.

These picks are called 'reaches'


real bargains - like the consensus toss up to be the first overall pick being taken at #21 or whatever. 24. But yes, when a player is picked well below his expected draft position, that player is a bargain. But there is a difference between 'bargains' the day after the draft and ten years after the draft. All sorts of players who drop from their expected draft position and were called 'bargains' by Hairdo Kiper in May, still fail so ultimately were no bargain, and some - like Rodgers or a Terrell Davis are bargains in spades.

"Projects" tend to be younger guys, guys playing out of position, raw guys from lower tier programs, etc who need to develop their skills. Sam Shields was considered a project because he only had a year at CB shifted from WR. Collins, Adams, Clark and Gary all fit the description to a small extent, but mostly they were/are all just rookies who need/ed some seasoning.

[Bretsky]

I would just like to point out to whoever told me a week ago that they have never heard Gary referred to as a project, that this article clearly calls him a project




Double Digit Sacks is a realistic expectation for a top 12 pick

If he stats don't translate we'll hear the same drivel about him making everybody better again. Michigan had one of the most talented defenses in the country. They all made each other better.

[red]

Double Digit Sacks is a realistic expectation for a top 12 pick

If he stats don't translate we'll hear the same drivel about him making everybody better again. Michigan had one of the most talented defenses in the country. They all made each other better.

he didn't have double digit sacks in 3 years of college....

total

[red]

or a T****** D***

are we even allowed to say his name on a packers board?

no one mentions that other horse face fuck that cheated us out of another lombardi trophy

[pbmax]

Double Digit Sacks is a realistic expectation for a top 12 pick

If he stats don't translate we'll hear the same drivel about him making everybody better again. Michigan had one of the most talented defenses in the country. They all made each other better.

I think this is far less common than you think. There are less than 20 guys who hit double digit sacks in a given year. An eventual DD sack year might be more realistic. You don't even average 1 guy like this a year. This is a list of those rookies with double digit sacks from Ted Year 1 onward, 15 years. 3 of the 9 weren't drafted in the Top 12.




Game Tack
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Sk Solo Ast Comb TFL QBHits
1 Bradley Chubb 2018 22 1-5 DEN NFL 16 16 12.0 41 19 60 14 21
2 Joey Bosa 2016 21 1-3 SDG NFL 12 11 10.5 29 12 41 17 21
3 Von Miller 2011 22 1-2 DEN NFL 15 15 11.5 50 14 64 19 29
4 Aldon Smith 2011 22 1-7 SFO NFL 16 0 14.0 31 6 37 13 27
5 Ndamukong Suh 2010 23 1-2 DET NFL 16 16 10.0 48 17 65 13 17
6 Clay Matthews 2009 23 1-26 GNB NFL 16 13 10.0 36 14 50 17 21
7 Brian Orakpo 2009 23 1-13 WAS NFL 16 16 11.0 38 13 51 13 15
8 Kamerion Wimbley 2006 23 1-13 CLE NFL 16 15 11.0 44 18 62 13 26
9 Shawne Merriman 2005 21 1-12 SDG NFL 15 10 10.0 43 14 57 10


Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&draft=1&year_min=2005&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=1&undrafted=N&pos%5B%5D=dt&pos%5B%5D=de&pos%5B%5D=dl&pos%5B%5D=ilb&pos%5B%5D=olb&pos%5B%5D=lb&pos%5B%5D=cb&pos%5B%5D=s&pos%5B%5D=db&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2019&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=1&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=sacks&c1comp=gt&c1val=10&c5val=1.0&order_by=year_id&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#results)
Generated 6/9/2019.

[pbmax]

Here are the guys who did this as rookies outside the first round.




Game Tack
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Sk Solo Ast Comb TFL QBHits
1 Mark Anderson 2006 23 5-159 CHI NFL 16 1 12.0 23 5 28 9 9


Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&draft=1&year_min=2005&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=1&undrafted=N&pos%5B%5D=dt&pos%5B%5D=de&pos%5B%5D=dl&pos%5B%5D=ilb&pos%5B%5D=olb&pos%5B%5D=lb&pos%5B%5D=cb&pos%5B%5D=s&pos%5B%5D=db&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2019&draft_round_min=2&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=sacks&c1comp=gt&c1val=10&c5val=1.0&order_by=year_id&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#results)
Generated 6/9/2019.

[pbmax]

Here are guys that eventually got a 10 sack season and were drafted in the first round.




Rk Player Draft From To Tm Count
1 Julius Peppers 1-2 2005 2017 CAR/CHI/GNB 8
2 DeMarcus Ware 1-11 2006 2014 DAL/DEN 8
3 Von Miller 1-2 2011 2018 DEN 7
4 John Abraham 1-13 2007 2013 ATL/ARI 5
5 Chandler Jones 1-21 2013 2018 NWE/ARI 5
6 Terrell Suggs 1-10 2010 2017 BAL 5
7 J.J. Watt 1-11 2012 2018 HOU 5
8 Mario Williams 1-1 2007 2014 HOU/BUF 5
9 Dwight Freeney 1-11 2005 2010 IND 4
10 Cameron Jordan 1-24 2013 2018 NOR 4
11 Ryan Kerrigan 1-16 2014 2018 WAS 4
12 Khalil Mack 1-5 2015 2018 OAK/CHI 4
13 Clay Matthews 1-26 2009 2014 GNB 4
14 Andre Carter 1-7 2007 2011 WAS/NWE 3
15 Aaron Donald 1-13 2015 2018 LAR 3
16 Tamba Hali 1-20 2010 2013 KAN 3
17 Shawne Merriman 1-12 2005 2007 SDG 3
18 Brian Orakpo 1-13 2009 2016 WAS/TEN 3
19 Jason Pierre-Paul 1-15 2011 2018 NYG/TAM 3
20 Robert Quinn 1-14 2012 2014 STL 3
21 Ezekiel Ansah 1-5 2015 2017 DET 2
22 Jason Babin 1-27 2010 2011 TEN/PHI 2
23 Joey Bosa 1-3 2016 2017 LAC 2
24 Dee Ford 1-23 2016 2018 KAN 2
25 Jerry Hughes 1-31 2013 2014 BUF 2
26 Melvin Ingram 1-18 2015 2017 LAC 2
27 Chris Long 1-2 2011 2012 STL 2
28 Aldon Smith 1-7 2011 2012 SFO 2
29 Will Smith 1-18 2006 2009 NOR 2
30 Muhammad Wilkerson 1-30 2013 2015 NYJ 2
31 Vic Beasley 1-8 2016 2016 ATL 1
32 DeForest Buckner 1-7 2018 2018 SFO 1
33 Bradley Chubb 1-5 2018 2018 DEN 1
34 Fletcher Cox 1-12 2018 2018 PHI 1
35 Marcell Dareus 1-3 2014 2014 BUF 1
36 Greg Ellis 1-8 2007 2007 DAL 1
37 Myles Garrett 1-1 2018 2018 CLE 1
38 Cameron Heyward 1-31 2017 2017 PIT 1
39 Patrick Kerney 1-30 2007 2007 SEA 1
40 Whitney Mercilus 1-26 2015 2015 HOU 1
41 Calvin Pace 1-18 2013 2013 NYJ 1
42 Nick Perry 1-28 2016 2016 GNB 1
43 Julian Peterson 1-16 2006 2006 SEA 1
44 Trevor Pryce 1-28 2006 2006 BAL 1
45 Simeon Rice 1-3 2005 2005 TAM 1
46 Warren Sapp* 1-12 2006 2006 OAK 1
47 Anthony Spencer 1-26 2012 2012 DAL 1
48 Ndamukong Suh 1-2 2010 2010 DET 1
49 T.J. Watt 1-30 2018 2018 PIT 1
50 Kamerion Wimbley 1-13 2006 2006 CLE 1


Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=total&draft=1&year_min=2005&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&undrafted=N&pos%5B%5D=dt&pos%5B%5D=de&pos%5B%5D=dl&pos%5B%5D=ilb&pos%5B%5D=olb&pos%5B%5D=lb&pos%5B%5D=cb&pos%5B%5D=s&pos%5B%5D=db&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2019&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=1&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=sacks&c1comp=gt&c1val=10&c5val=1.0&order_by=year_id&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#results)
Generated 6/9/2019.

[Bretsky]

I think this is far less common than you think. There are less than 20 guys who hit double digit sacks in a given year. An eventual DD sack year might be more realistic. You don't even average 1 guy like this a year. This is a list of those rookies with double digit sacks from Ted Year 1 onward, 15 years. 3 of the 9 weren't drafted in the Top 12.




Game Tack
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Sk Solo Ast Comb TFL QBHits
1 Bradley Chubb 2018 22 1-5 DEN NFL 16 16 12.0 41 19 60 14 21
2 Joey Bosa 2016 21 1-3 SDG NFL 12 11 10.5 29 12 41 17 21
3 Von Miller 2011 22 1-2 DEN NFL 15 15 11.5 50 14 64 19 29
4 Aldon Smith 2011 22 1-7 SFO NFL 16 0 14.0 31 6 37 13 27
5 Ndamukong Suh 2010 23 1-2 DET NFL 16 16 10.0 48 17 65 13 17
6 Clay Matthews 2009 23 1-26 GNB NFL 16 13 10.0 36 14 50 17 21
7 Brian Orakpo 2009 23 1-13 WAS NFL 16 16 11.0 38 13 51 13 15
8 Kamerion Wimbley 2006 23 1-13 CLE NFL 16 15 11.0 44 18 62 13 26
9 Shawne Merriman 2005 21 1-12 SDG NFL 15 10 10.0 43 14 57 10


Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&draft=1&year_min=2005&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=1&undrafted=N&pos%5B%5D=dt&pos%5B%5D=de&pos%5B%5D=dl&pos%5B%5D=ilb&pos%5B%5D=olb&pos%5B%5D=lb&pos%5B%5D=cb&pos%5B%5D=s&pos%5B%5D=db&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2019&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=1&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=sacks&c1comp=gt&c1val=10&c5val=1.0&order_by=year_id&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#results)
Generaed 6/9/2019.

More evidence we should be able to expect double digit sacks. Several of these guys were drafted around 12. I would think the Fluffies would expect that out of him. After all, the Smith brothers should make those around them better and mean nobody will be focusing on shutting Gary down. No need to make excuses for underachieving anymore.

[RashanGary]

You sound like a jaded troll, bretsky! Relax dude!

[Guiness]

These picks are called 'reaches'

24. But yes, when a player is picked well below his expected draft position, that player is a bargain. But there is a difference between 'bargains' the day after the draft and ten years after the draft. All sorts of players who drop from their expected draft position and were called 'bargains' by Hairdo Kiper in May, still fail so ultimately were no bargain, and some - like Rodgers or a Terrell Davis are bargains in spades.

"Projects" tend to be younger guys, guys playing out of position, raw guys from lower tier programs, etc who need to develop their skills. Sam Shields was considered a project because he only had a year at CB shifted from WR. Collins, Adams, Clark and Gary all fit the description to a small extent, but mostly they were/are all just rookies who need/ed some seasoning.

I forget, was Donald Driver a project or a bargain?

[texaspackerbacker]

Driver was a low (7th) round pick. He was one of my proudest calls ever - in the old Journal/Sentinel forum - advocating for the Packers to keep him and play him more at a time when there wasn't much support for that. It's entirely possible to be both a project and a bargain. For sure, Driver was a project, but considering how many 7th rounders fail, I'd call him a bargain too.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The most sacks by an OLB per season in a Pettine defense (most of these were damn good defenses):

2009 Calvin Pace 8.0
2010 Bryan Thomas 6.0
2011 Aaron Maybin 6.0
2012 Quinton Coples 5.5
2013 Jerry Hughes 10.0
2014 Paul Kruger 11.0
2015 Amonty Bryant 5.5

But were supposed to expect a rookie to get 10 sacks or it will be a disappointment? Really? 11 sacks would tie the highest ever by an OLB under Pettine. A rookie who is splitting time with quality veterans has no chance at it. It's more likely that you'll see Clark get 6-7 sacks, Z. Smith get 7-8 sacks, P. Smith get 6-7 sacks, Gary gets 5-6 sacks, Daniels gets 5-6 sacks, Martinez gets 4-5 sacks, and Fackrell gets 4-5 sacks.

[Patler]

It seems to me that a number of 'Rats are convinced Gary is a failed pick, so they have set a minimum standard for his rookie year that assures they will be right. A minimum of 10 sacks? Really? We should be disappointed if he gets 9? 8? 7?

I think he will be a successful pick if he is a regular rotation player on a much improved defense. If he is not a regular player in 2019, it won't mean he is a failed pick. That judgment can only come a couple years later, and it certainly won't be made just because he fails to get 10 sacks as a rookie.

[pbmax]

More evidence we should be able to expect double digit sacks. Several of these guys were drafted around 12. I would think the Fluffies would expect that out of him. After all, the Smith brothers should make those around them better and mean nobody will be focusing on shutting Gary down. No need to make excuses for underachieving anymore.

9 players out of fourteen drafts is not even 50%. Its evidence you shouldn't expect double digit sacks. If two pass rushers went in each year, the rate of hitting that benchmark is well below 33%. And there are more than 2 rushers taken in the first round each year.

[Patler]

All-time sacks leader Bruce Smith had 6.5 sacks as a rookie after being the first pick in the NFL draft.
Chris Doleman had 0.5 as a rookie and 3.0 in his second season after being the fourth overall pick.
DeMarcus Ware had 8.0 sacks after being the 11th pick.
Michael Strahan had 1.0, 4.5, 7.5 and 5.0 his first four seasons; of course he was the 40th overall pick.
Jason Taylor had 5.0, 9.0 and 2.5 his first three seasons after being the 73rd pick.

These guys are all in the top 10 all-time sacks leaders, and except for Ware, who is not yet eligible, are Hall of Famers.

But we should expect Gary to have 10 this year?

I should also point out that others in the all-time top 10 who failed to reach 10 in their early careers seasons include Greene (0, 7.0, 6.5), Dent (3.0) and Randle (1.0, 9.5); but they were not high draft picks. The only ones in the top 10 who DID have double-digit rookie seasons were White and Peppers.

[Joemailman]

Here is why people shouldn't necessarily expect an OLB to get double-digit sacks in Pettine's defense:

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/06/01/packers-prioritizing-interior-pass-rush-under-mike-pettine/


The Packers new defensive coordinator places a premium on rushing the passer from the inside.

“That’s where it starts. It starts up front. People talk about the exterior pass rush, I think the interior pass rush is as important or maybe potentially more important,” Pettine said Thursday. “If you can be dominant inside, I think that has a ripple effect throughout your defense.”

The idea stems from improvements made by offenses in terms of taking away edge pass-rush. Teams can always chip an edge rusher, assign double teams or slide protection one way or another, but a strong rusher from the inside is harder to take away. Almost always, at least one interior rusher will face a single blocker.

“It’s much easier to negate an edge pass rusher than it is an inside dominant guy. You can force offenses to block them one-on-one,” Pettine said. “Offenses have gotten very good at negating edge rushers.”

Pettine’s prioritization of the inside pass-rush was born out of years of working under Rex Ryan, who consistently used top draft picks on interior disruptors. The goal for any pass-rush is always to collapse the pocket around the quarterback, creating disrupted throwing lanes and throwing platforms. While edge rushers can turn the corner and disrupt quarterbacks, the quickest way to a collapsed pocket is right up the middle.

“It’s something I learned from Rex a long time ago,” Pettine said. “You have to have guys winning inside. Even if you have great edge rushers, great speed rush, if the pocket’s not collapsed, it’s a clean pocket to step up into. It’s paramount that you have guys that can win inside.”

Even if Gary plays really well, it's still hard to predict how many sacks he'll get for 2 reasons. First, we don't know how often he'll line up outside versus inside. Inside could be his best opportunities for sacks. Second, we don't know which rushers opponent blocking schemes will focus on stopping.

My guess is the Packers will have somewhere between 45-50 sacks this year. They had 44 last year (8th overall). The league average last year was 40. The problem was that lack of consistent pressure resulted in the Packers defense being among the worst at opponent passer rating (27th), interceptions (30th), and TD passes given up (21st). If Gary helps the Packers have a more consistent and better pass rush, that will be manifested more in improving those negative numbers than it will in sack numbers which were already pretty good.

[Upnorth]

Every pro Gary article I have read mentions how he impacts those around him, helping generate consistent pressure, which is exactly what Joe said directly above this.

Stating that sacks determine a pass rushers effectiveness is like stating wins are a qb stat. Makes sense at first glance but easily proven wrong with a deeper look.

In the end I think with the personal we have brought in it will be hard to measure Gary's impact immediately, due to heavy rotation and scheme. I think we should somehow try to extend Clark before the start of the season as the scheme will make him look all pro.

[run pMc]

It seems to me that a number of 'Rats are convinced Gary is a failed pick, so they have set a minimum standard for his rookie year that assures they will be right. A minimum of 10 sacks? Really? We should be disappointed if he gets 9? 8? 7?

I think he will be a successful pick if he is a regular rotation player on a much improved defense. If he is not a regular player in 2019, it won't mean he is a failed pick. That judgment can only come a couple years later, and it certainly won't be made just because he fails to get 10 sacks as a rookie.

I did not like the pick -- I thought he's a quintessential boom/bust, LA Raiders type pick -- but since he's a Packer I will cheer for him and hope for the best.
That aside, I agree with this take. If he's a regular, contributing player on an improved defense, then he's doing his job. I don't expect him to set the world on fire as a rookie, and with the Smiths ahead of him he doesn't have to...which is probably a good thing, honestly. I think he'll take some time to learn the pro game and work on his pass rush.

Another way to look at it is -- of all the R1 picks, which will get 10 sacks this year? Rookie or no, 10 sacks is a big number, and I doubt any Packer will get that this season. I think Harv's estimated numbers (several players with 5-7 sacks each) are more likely.

[gbgary]

how can gary be a questionable pick when EVERYONE projected him as a 1st round pick and most, if not all, projected him in the first half of the first round?

[mraynrand]

how can gary be a questionable pick when EVERYONE projected him as a 1st round pick and most, if not all, projected him in the first half of the first round?

He's questionable for those who don't like him. It's time to play wait and see.

[Joemailman]

List of 22 players who had double-digit sacks in 2018, and how many they had as a rookie:

Aaron Donald 9
J.J. Watt 5.5
Chris Jones 2
Danielle Hunter 6
Von Miller 11.5
Myles Garrett 7
T.J. Watt 7
Dee Ford 1.5
Chandler Jones 6
Frank Clark 3
Ryan Kerrigan 7.5
Jason Pierre-Paul 4.5
Khalil Mack 4
DeForest Buckner 6
Bradley Chubb 12
Cameron Jordan 1
Calais Campbell 0
Demarcus Lawrence 0
Jarran Reed 1.5
Fletcher Cox 5.5
Kyler Fackrell 2
Geno Atkins 3

So, of the top 22 sack men of 2018, 2 had double-digit sacks as rookies. 11 of them had fewer than 5.

Bretsky, why were the Watt brothers were such slackers as rookies. :-)

[Bretsky]

List of 22 players who had double-digit sacks in 2018, and how many they had as a rookie:

Aaron Donald 9
J.J. Watt 5.5
Chris Jones 2
Danielle Hunter 6
Von Miller 11.5
Myles Garrett 7
T.J. Watt 7
Dee Ford 1.5
Chandler Jones 6
Frank Clark 3
Ryan Kerrigan 7.5
Jason Pierre-Paul 4.5
Khalil Mack 4
DeForest Buckner 6
Bradley Chubb 12
Cameron Jordan 1
Calais Campbell 0
Demarcus Lawrence 0
Jarran Reed 1.5
Fletcher Cox 5.5
Kyler Fackrell 2
Geno Atkins 3

So, of the top 22 sack men of 2018, 2 had double-digit sacks as rookies. 11 of them had fewer than 5.

Bretsky, why were the Watt brothers were such slackers as rookies. :-)


At PICK 30, TJ Watt had 7 sacks and he was very banged up and I think missed some time as rook.

DAM TJ WATT would look GREAT in Green n Gold !! I didn't realize he had double digits last yr

JJ Watt was a Defensive End, not an elite OLB Edge. I can't remember if he was banged up his first year though; I didn't follow Texas that closely

[Bretsky]

You sound like a jaded troll, bretsky! Relax dude!

Truth be told I really want Gary to kill it; I'm just a bit bored in here lately.

I thrive on the tassles; lately it's been all fluff.

This is the one thing I can keep arguing on.....lol

[RashanGary]

Truth be told I really want Gary to kill it; I'm just a bit bored in here lately.

I thrive on the tassles; lately it's been all fluff.

This is the one thing I can keep arguing on.....lol

Ya pissin me off, nigga :lol:

[wthigoot]

It seems to me that a number of 'Rats are convinced Gary is a failed pick, so they have set a minimum standard for his rookie year that assures they will be right. A minimum of 10 sacks? Really? We should be disappointed if he gets 9? 8? 7?

I think he will be a successful pick if he is a regular rotation player on a much improved defense. If he is not a regular player in 2019, it won't mean he is a failed pick. That judgment can only come a couple years later, and it certainly won't be made just because he fails to get 10 sacks as a rookie.

Was not expecting Gary to be the pick but from reading up on him it sounds like he might be better as a run stopper early on. Maybe they use him on early downs and let the experienced rushers go on passing downs?

I would be very happy if he was the equivalent of a healthy Nick Perry.

[smuggler]

Annual reminder that Aldon Smith loves booze more than money and fame. 😢

[Patler]

Was not expecting Gary to be the pick but from reading up on him it sounds like he might be better as a run stopper early on. Maybe they use him on early downs and let the experienced rushers go on passing downs?

I would be very happy if he was the equivalent of a healthy Nick Perry.

Agreed.

[gbgary]

Was not expecting Gary to be the pick but from reading up on him it sounds like he might be better as a run stopper early on. Maybe they use him on early downs and let the experienced rushers go on passing downs?

I would be very happy if he was the equivalent of a healthy Nick Perry.

hearing pettine yesterday it sounds like z. smith and gary will be rushing the passer 90+% of the time with the other smith doing the same but dropping into coverage more than the others.