Stick with me and you’ll never go hungry again: Week 2 NFL Bet

[RashanGary]

Aaron Jones over 58.5 yards
-$115

Why?

INDIVIDUAL REASONS
-Aaron Jones averaged 60 yards per game last year playing from behind with a bad defense
-He’s in the best shape of his career
-He’s 24 years old and entering his 3rd season so should be on the upswing of his career
-Jones missed the first part of last year, then was 2nd string his first couple weeks back. Once he became the starter, he went over 60 in 5 of the next 8 contests (62.5% of the time)

OPPONENT REASONS
-The Vikings gave up, on average 113 yards per game last year
-They lost Sheldon Richardson
-They’re a defense that has guys in their prime or 30 years old, so they’re not ascending
-The Vikings run an even front. 3-4 fronts with big edges usually give outside zone teams more trouble

TEAM REASONS
-It’s a home game so the OL can get off the ball better
-The Packers have shifted to a run oriented offense
-Last week was Aaron Jones first game of the new season so Lafleur will probably feel more comfortable letting him loose now, in the second game
-He’s the Packers only real rushing threat that’s experienced enough to contribute so he looks to get the bulk of the carries in a run-centric offense


All signs point to Aaron Jones breaking 58.5 tomorrow at Lambeau. You can bet on it. I did.

[esoxx]

Interesting. I actually bet Jones under rushing total against the Bears and won with much room to spare. I would say be careful with this mainly b/c of the new offensive system and only one game under their belt. Big adjustment with the OL run blocking wide zone scheme. But good luck and I hope you cash.

[RashanGary]

Interesting. I actually bet Jones under rushing total against the Bears and won with much room to spare. I would say be careful with this mainly b/c of the new offensive system and only one game under their belt. Big adjustment with the OL run blocking wide zone scheme. But good luck and I hope you cash.

Bears have an odd front with two 270 pound edges. So that’s a big 5 man line. That’s tough to run outside zone on. Vikings have a 4 man front and one of the four is 260lbs.

Bears were #1 rushing defense last year. Vikings #14

Bears game on the road, the get off for OL is slower and DL faster

Very very different situations. I totally agree with your bet last week but still feel great about this weeks.

[RashanGary]

And I do understand what you’re saying about a new outside zone scheme, but every one of these guys have run outside zone in college and in the NFL. Now it’s the staple, so that’s a change, but we have experienced lineman who have run a ton of outside zone throughout their careers so it’s not a huge adjustment for them.

Every team in the NFL runs outside zone. The biggest change is we run it more now. So much more that passes get designed off of the run looks.

[RashanGary]

Got my money in the first half! Thanks Aaron Jones.

[esoxx]

Nice hit Rashan! Wish I would have tailed you. His rushing total was only 55.5 yards at my site.

I did hit the under 33.5 on Jimmy Graham's receiving yard total. That was easy. I'll continue to fade him until oddsmakers catch up to the fact he's either washed up or severely ill suited for this type of offense.