Official Chargers Week Thread

[pbmax]

This is what an outside run should look like from shotgun. Note the Center and the play side Guard miss a block and never win the block respectively. But the Tackle cuts off pursuit and sets an edge and that opens it up.

TE Kittle gets a contain block on Kuechly and its 10 yards instead of 4.

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1188833537723523072

[mraynrand]

TE Kittle gets a contain block on Kuechly and its 10 yards instead of 4.

That's a veteran block with sublimely subtle holding.

[pbmax]

@JasonLaCanfora

Can confirm ESPN report Giants trade a 3rd and 5th for Leonard Williams. Jets had been shopping him for weeks. Several GMs I spoke to who need DL help did not like his film or his pricetag. Seems like a steep price to pay, especially for a 2-6 team that has sold off DL in past

[Fritz]

Gints being Gints, they'll finish with a really lousy losing record, be unable to re-sign him, and only get a fourth back as compensation . . .

[RashanGary]

@JasonLaCanfora

Can confirm ESPN report Giants trade a 3rd and 5th for Leonard Williams. Jets had been shopping him for weeks. Several GMs I spoke to who need DL help did not like his film or his pricetag. Seems like a steep price to pay, especially for a 2-6 team that has sold off DL in past

Giants get Eli off the books. Don’t have a lot of long term money invested. Their rookie DL is playing really well.... going forward makes sense. They can lock that guy up and make interior DL a strength of their team.

[RashanGary]

Giants have a good rookie QB. A great young running back. Jabril Peppers is good. Dexter Lawrence looks like a quality player. Engram is too. Giants solidifying that middle part of their defense. This isn’t their year, but I don’t see why next year can’t be. The interior DL will help them going forward.

[pbmax]

In 2011, Packers got three coaches fired I think, after their Packer game.

This 2019 team got a guy fired before the game.

LAChargers
Ken Whisenhunt has been relieved from his duties as offensive coordinator.

[pbmax]

Aaron Schatz
The Chargers, who are 16th in offensive DVOA, just fired their offensive coordinator.

Teams 14, 15, and 17 are the teams from the last two Super Bowls: Rams 14, Pats 15, Eagles 17.

The offense has underperformed but the defense (27th in DVOA) is the bigger problem.

[mraynrand]

“Philosophical differences”

I bet Wisenhunt leans towards post-modern anti-realism, Lynn, naive realism and Rivers towards Critical realism.

[run pMc]

“Philosophical differences”

I bet Wisenhunt leans towards post-modern anti-realism, Lynn, naive realism and Rivers towards Critical realism.

Could "NFL Mic'd up" get them together in a room to debate philosophy? With Rivers it could get hilariously weird.

[run pMc]

From what I've seen of the LAC this year they are a little sloppy. They've been hit by injuries and there was the Melvin Gordon holdout. They have talent and could give GB problems but I'd have to think GB is favored.

[RashanGary]

Chargers are about to get significantly better. Their OL just got healthier. Their DL might be back for our game. They’re gonna upset someone soon, once that DL is healthy.

[RashanGary]

And when they get healthy, I’m gonna be there for the bet!!!

[Fritz]

Giants have a good rookie QB. A great young running back. Jabril Peppers is good. Dexter Lawrence looks like a quality player. Engram is too. Giants solidifying that middle part of their defense. This isn’t their year, but I don’t see why next year can’t be. The interior DL will help them going forward.


Jabrill Peppers - meh.

Another highly-hyped Michigan player who underperformed at U of M. No surprise he's underperforming as a pro.

Chase Winovich actually produced. So did Devin Bush.

[pbmax]

Brian Burke's Expected Points Added per game through week 8. Its better to be in the upper right quadrant.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIEGOVEXYAAxMHT?format=jpg&name=small

[RashanGary]

PB,

I’ll give your stats credit there. That’s a who’s who of the best teams that lean upper right. It’s essentially the same thing i do using my old ginstincts (gut/instincts).

I check injury report. Note who’s out and who the replacement are. Watch game. I grade run and pass based on my professional opinion and naturally know to take out garbage time and natural give no credit to a 10 yard gain in 3rd and 20 unless it’s setting up the field goal, in which case, it weighs in appropriately.

I jot down little notes in my excel sheet and wam bam, thank ya ma’am, i have my bobs ginstinct advanced team rankings and super special gamblers advantage.

But, I will admit, in absence of my one of a kind injury/coaching/situation all inclusive ginstinct pro gamblers advantage, those boring analytics are a poor mans version.

[RashanGary]

PB,

I read the expected points explaination by Burke to the best of my incredibly short attention span. I didn’t notice that the analytic accounts for strength of opponent.

My extra special ginstinct analysis does account and adjust for injuries and strength of opponent.

Which of your analytics help you there??

[pbmax]

Strength of Opponent: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

You want to watch DVOA (defense adjusted Value Over Average). Its weighted by opponent starting in Week 4 or 6 (don't remember).

I don't know of any regular rankings that take special account of injuries.

[RashanGary]

My little notes system accounts for how a team regressed after an injury so when said player comes back, I’m ahead of the curve.

I don’t win all of my bets, but I’m a winning sports better because I factor in the things that these analytics systems can’t account for. Not everyone can do what I do because I’ve loved and watched football since I was 6 years old. I was the 8 year old kid that could call out every penalty. I’ve heard every piece of old football wisdom and put it to the test and then kept some and left others. It keeps evolving as things change. I’m constantly looking to change my views to adapt to the now. So 30 years of football plus the time I have to watch games now and my ability to weigh in injury and notice trends that point to future not line it up with past....


Things like that give me an advantage over the numbers and analytics guys. It’s why I win and people who spend a lot of money on Brian Burke lose.

[RashanGary]

Strength of Opponent: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

You want to watch DVOA (defense adjusted Value Over Average). Its weighted by opponent starting in Week 4 or 6 (don't remember).

I don't know of any regular rankings that take special account of injuries.

If I was going to use those two grades, I’d want to see them on a line graph so I could visually see which way the team was trending. I would like text added to show when key injuries happened. If you can visualize it, at week 5 on dallas’s graph, I’d like text to show the OL injuries. That way my mind could quickly make sense of the dip in offensive production and would give me a better idea of future expectation than cumulative analytics data.

I like it. But I want it presented differently so it can account for some other things.

I might come up with a way of presenting my this type of data that allows for quick processing of future expectation.

[RashanGary]

I could definitely use those two stats if they were presented on a graph for each team, over time so I could see trends. Like i said, I’d place injury notes on the chart and then place other little odds and ends notes. When I go to make a betting decision I could look at each teams notated line chart so the overwhelming amount of information would be easier to process and possible mistakes I’m overlooking could be minimized.

It’s good stuff if used correctly. Honestly, I highly doubt very many people know how to use them correctly because most people who use those cumulative analytics miss some trends that are able to be predicted and don’t line up with past grades. Injuries and trending improvements don’t get weighed in so I’d want to have flags on the graph to make it easily processed.

[MadtownPacker]

Damn, just realized RashanGary is an insane or Bizarro version of PBMax.

[Zool]

So who's Solomon Grundy? Red probably.

[RashanGary]

Pb, let’s come up with a way to take those two analytics, punch them into excel week by week, have a trusty line chart come up, then add notes for injury.... then run it by a few trusty packer rats who quit our jobs and just watch every football game. Then we can be dominant winning sports betters and never have to work again.

Me, you, mraynrand and maybe ky cuz he’s got an old timer perspective we need. My 17 year old son too cuz he’s got a new comer perspective that always seems to open my eyes to new things and helps me win.

We’d have little Saturday FaceTime meetings and then boom. Winning!!! Or we could all move to Nevada and have a big ranch and have our meetings in person. Plus whores are legal so our winnings could be best spent on some clean, youthful puss-gina.

[RashanGary]

Each guy could have two divisions to cover injuries and present a short write up of each team going into the week. We could bounce ideas around on Monday’s, Wednesday’s and Saturday’s and then make most our bets on Sunday’s after the inactive list comes out.

Present that information the right way, accounting for trends over time and flagging injuries, then add in an in depth overview of the teams approach to the week (at which point all voices can chime in). Then when the inactive lists come out, boom, we’re all ready for our bets. This can not possibly fail. What are we waiting for!? Clean youthful puss-gina is awaiting us all. Why wait for heaven for the virgins when you can slay them now.

[RashanGary]

We’d be so good, it would be like AR throwing no lookers or purposely waiting till the last moment to find his guy just to flaunt his dominance. This is our chance. Nerds, psychos and socially retarded ass holes unite! Hookers and blow! Hookers and blow! AHHHHHHHHH!!!! Let’s go!! Hookers and fucking blow, guys!!!!

[Fritz]

Each guy could have two divisions to cover injuries and present a short write up of each team going into the week. We could bounce ideas around on Monday’s, Wednesday’s and Saturday’s and then make most our bets on Sunday’s after the inactive list comes out.

Present that information the right way, accounting for trends over time and flagging injuries, then add in an in depth overview of the teams approach to the week (at which point all voices can chime in). Then when the inactive lists come out, boom, we’re all ready for our bets. This can not possibly fail. What are we waiting for!? Clean youthful puss-gina is awaiting us all. Why wait for heaven for the virgins when you can slay them now.

You won't get rich off this idea until you write a book and start a website offering prospective bettors the "inside scoop" on your "new, guaranteed system," which consumers can have for the incredible price of only $9.99/month.

[RashanGary]

I will only participate if ky is the leader. He’s got a lot of wisdom and speaks in colorful slang that reminds you that he’s been there and done that and isn’t going to take any shit from any of us whipper snappers. I’m 5’10 and 200 pounds of healthy explosive psychotic athlete but I feel ky would still whip my ass, easy.

[RashanGary]

You won't get rich off this idea until you write a book and start a website offering prospective bettors the "inside scoop" on your "new, guaranteed system," which consumers can have for the incredible price of only $9.99/month.

Vegas will not allow anyone to win consistently. Hence such systems are taken down by one corrupt official. We don’t know which one it is, but Vegas strategically insures he’s in position to call holding at the most inopportune times to take down the systems that evolve. So we have to keep it secret and just win in our small group to stay under their radar.

[gbgary]

they'd better be careful here and not be looking at the standings. rivers can still slice and dice, and gordon can gash, a defense. our O has gotten much better from early on but the D has regressed. they've gone soft, bend don't break. they're giving up yards and points at a much higher rate. the sacks and takeaways have dropped as a result. i think it'll take 30+ to beat the chargers. one thing in the Packers favor...it should sound like a home game with the vast majority of fans being Packers fans.

[gbgary]

lol @ justin gary's brilliance.

[RashanGary]

Vows will have to be taken and hits doled our to anyone who leaks information or tries to leave. The family must be protected at all costs

[RashanGary]

they'd better be careful here and not be looking at the standings. rivers can still slice and dice, and gordon can gash, a defense. our O has gotten much better from early on but the D has regressed. they've gone soft, bend don't break. they're giving up yards and points at a much higher rate. the sacks and takeaways have dropped as a result. i think it'll take 30+ to beat the chargers. one thing in the Packers favor...it should sound like a home game with the vast majority of fans being Packers fans.

Chargers OL just got healthier. Their DL May be next, just in time to shock us. As soon as Chargers DL gets healthy, I’m just waiting for my chance to win a nice upset bet.

[run pMc]

they'd better be careful here and not be looking at the standings. rivers can still slice and dice, and gordon can gash, a defense. our O has gotten much better from early on but the D has regressed. they've gone soft, bend don't break. they're giving up yards and points at a much higher rate. the sacks and takeaways have dropped as a result. i think it'll take 30+ to beat the chargers. one thing in the Packers favor...it should sound like a home game with the vast majority of fans being Packers fans.

Agree this could be a 'trap game', but it doesn't feel like it. It's only Wednesday though.

The SD OL and DL have had a lot of injuries and that's hurt them. They've also made what feel like sloppy mistakes to me moreso than bad luck.
Hopefully Bulaga can play, otherwise Alex Light is going to see a lot of Bosa and Ingram. I don't think they have a LB that can cover Aaron Jones, and Derwin James is out.

I think GB is the better team and 'should' win this game.

[pbmax]

Vegas will not allow anyone to win consistently. Hence such systems are taken down by one corrupt official. We don’t know which one it is, but Vegas strategically insures he’s in position to call holding at the most inopportune times to take down the systems that evolve. So we have to keep it secret and just win in our small group to stay under their radar.

I think the person you are thinking about works at Buffalo Wild Wings.

[Joemailman]

Rob Demovsky
ESPN Staff Writer
Davante Adams went through the early drills on Wednesday but it was another non-helmet, light practice for everyone. However, last Wednesday he didn't even do that. The sense is there's been significant improvement in his four-week turf toe injury.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1189655485617754117

[RashanGary]

Saw a video of Adams running hard. We’ll have a good idea how it responded to the more intense work load on Friday.

The thing is, if they hold him out two more games he gets a full extra month off because of the bye week. If they’re not sure, I’d still lean on the side of caution. But a partial tear..... this is right about the time where it could be healed enough to not be at further risk so it could be a go.

[pbmax]

Whoever they post this, makes me think its a Doonesbury cartoon of a President.

https://i.ibb.co/3TzfxMb/The-Flower.png

[Joemailman]

https://primary-cdn-shortstop.espn.net/6ae94ce7-9ce5-4363-85d2-36f5013e8bab.png

[Joemailman]

https://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2019&wk=9

Jim Nantz and Tony Romo with the call.

https://506sports.com/2019/09-CBS-L-V2.png

[run pMc]

Jim Nantz and Tony Romo with the call.

Sweet - no Aikman/Buck. :)

If Davante is cleared medically and feels good, I'd ease him back into action -- maybe just play him for RZ and 3rd down snaps.

[Joemailman]

Great day for football TV viewing: Vikings at Kansas City at noon/Packers at Chargers at 3:25/Patriots at Ravens at 7:20.

[Teamcheez1]

I think if Davante isn't close to 100%, they should just sit him this week. Continue his rehab and practice next week and then make a decision if we even play him before the bye against the Panthers.

[Joemailman]

I think if Davante isn't close to 100%, they should just sit him this week. Continue his rehab and practice next week and then make a decision if we even play him before the bye against the Panthers.

If he isn't 100%, they won't even consider playing him. Some injuries you can play through. Other injuries can get worse if you try to play at less than 100%. I believe turf toe is in the latter.

[MadtownPacker]

Adams needs to sit. The offense won’t be the reason the game could be an upset. It will be because Rivers shreds the defense.

[Teamcheez1]

The Green Bay Packers signed TE Evan Baylis and WR Darrius Shepherd to the practice squad and released WR Keon Hatcher from the practice squad. General Manager Brian Gutekunst announced the transactions Thursday.

I suspected that both would make their way to the practice squad. They showed ability in preseason but weren't ready for prime time.

[RashanGary]

I’m torn on t he Adams situation. By most medical opinions, he’s just hit the mark for the time table to come back from severe turf toe ligament damage. The most severe could be longer, but it didn’t sound like it was the surgery kind of turf toe.

Medically, the things I read, he should have healed enough to have enough range of motion and ligament strength to play without risking further injury. So he’s right there where he should come back.

But.... we’re so close to the bye. He’s our only true top perimeter weapon. We need him badly to make a SB run.....


Maybe play him 20% of snaps this week
50% next weeek
100% after bye

[RashanGary]

Bring him in for 3rd down and Redzone this week maybe....

[texaspackerbacker]

It makes a lot of difference what the doctors say about aggravating the injury. A lot of ankles the guy can play on and it ain't gonna get worse. A hamstring can flare up if the guy comes back too soon. I don't have any idea about a toe like this, but undoubtedly the docs do.

If he gets the green light, I'd activate him and see how the game goes. If we need somebody to get open late in the game, let him play hero.

[George Cumby]

I think if Davante isn't close to 100%, they should just sit him this week. Continue his rehab and practice next week and then make a decision if we even play him before the bye against the Panthers.

This all the way. Toe injuries need a lot of time.

[Joemailman]

https://primary-cdn-shortstop.espn.net/213a74e5-7401-48f3-b421-5e58c7c62e91.jpeg

[run pMc]

Half the team LOL
I think MLF's strategy is to list everything and make it all look like noise, so the bad injuries have camoflouge.

[pbmax]

They should just list the tissue involved in the injury. Or maybe the tissue-bodypart.

ligament-toe
catilage-knee
semi-permeable membrane-arm
tau protein deposit-head

[pbmax]

He's playing.


https://twitter.com/JohnDoranTV/status/1190305547075108871

[Cheesehead Craig]

Mercedes Lewis was a limited participant but it had nothing to do with injury.

[pbmax]

Mercedes Lewis was a limited participant but it had nothing to do with injury.

Isn't that Graham?

[Anti-Polar Bear]

So will Mahomes play this week? I wanna see the Chefs Wu-Tang the Queens.

[pbmax]

Stormbreaker is back on the roster. I Campbell has until next Tuesday for a decision.

@BillHuberSI
Meanwhile, the 53rd spot goes to ... TE Jace Sternberger.

[RashanGary]

The Chargers are a sneaky decent team

They went for stretches without Henry, Gordon and a few OL. Rivers struggled with his cast falling down around him. Allen, Henry, Gordon, Eckler and a healthy OL make Rivers a dangerous dude. This is a tough test for our defense.

Luckily the Chargers are still missing 2 starting interior DL. Look for a big day from the Packer running game and some nice soft pockets for Rodgers to step into. Rodgers, Adams, Jones.... a rock solid OL and bunch of serviceable role players should be too much for Chargers to slow down in a friendly environment.

I do expect the Packers to win, but I don’t know if it will look as easy as we might expect.

[RashanGary]

On a side note, the Chiefs look to be getting two of their pass rush studs back for the Vikings. The Chargers might have their DL back vs the Vikings in December.....

The season is lining up nicely to screw the Vikings

[RashanGary]

I wonder if Sternberger will be active this week. Tonyan has a hip.

On a side note, I’m a big fan of the Jones/Williams package at running back. Get Tonyan back, and we have a couple of agile guys who like to block. I would think Lafleur could get creative the way SF does taking advantage of the way kittle and juice block on the move.

[RashanGary]

Alex light played well enough to consider making him a TE too, in short yardage.

Light
Lewis
Tonyan
Williams
Jones

Would be interesting.... obviously you have to play the run first there, but Lewis, Tonyan, Williams and Jones can all sneak out and make ya pay if ya forget to cover the pass.

[texaspackerbacker]

He may be Light at Tackle, but he'd be Heavy at TE.

[pbmax]

He may be Light at Tackle, but he'd be Heavy at TE.

:tup: