The Packers win the Super Bowl if.....

[RashanGary]

I'll toss out a couple ideaers here


1. Health

2. The offense continues to use Jones, Adams and company to evolve their "take what the defense is giving" identity.

3. Pettine talks about getting talented but inexperienced players to take that next step to experienced playmakers. Taking shots when the help is there and being disciplined when it's not is the recipe for making big plays and preventing big plays. That needs to happen.


We have a bye week, a six game stretch with 4 injured, losing teams and the potential for another bye. The biggest "if" is probably the young defense figuring out when to take chances and when not to. But...... the bye week, the health and the decent schedule do give them a really good chance to have late season growth. I'm crossing my fingers!

[call_me_ishmael]

No chance they win the super bowl. Zero. They're not good enough yet.

[RashanGary]

Signs the defense is "getting it"

1. Giving up fewer big plays! A pattern of giving up a lot of big plays is a sign of undisciplined defense.

2. More 3 and outs. A defense that knows when to take its chances finds a way to blow up that 1st down run play or undercut that crossing route when they have help over the top. That leads to more early 3rd down parties in the backfield


I see this as the key to the season. The young defense getting healthy, gelling and "getting it"

[RashanGary]

The hardest defense to play is 1st and second down defense. The offense can run, pass, short pass, screen pass, trick play and any other variety of bullshit they can dream up. The Packers are successful in the redzone and on 3rd and long when they don't have to be as disciplined with covering the whole field. But they're getting their ass kicked on early downs and between the 20s.

In their defense, most defenses are bad between the 20s, on third down and in the redzone. So the Packers are already in the top half. But that next step of knowing when to take that shot on first and second down is where they need to get to if we want to win an Owl.

[texaspackerbacker]

With a healthy Aaron Rodgers and mediocrity pretty much everywhere else (and we are way better than mediocre at a lot of places now), the Packers are capable of beating anybody. It takes a streak of consistency and luck to go all the way, though.

If our O Line steps up just a little bit and we get a little bit lucky with turnovers, we are capable of outscoring anybody even with our shoddy defense.

If Pettine can find a way to stop the run without loading up and depleting pass coverage (possibly mission impossible), then we would be the runaway top choice.

[RashanGary]

Of the possible playoff teams, the Packers defense is clearly better than:

Seahawks, Cowboys, Rams, Ravens, Raiders

Its in the pack with most of them

And off the top of my head, the clearly better defensive teams are:

49ers, Saints

The rest, for one reason or another, seem to have limitations just like our defense. There is a path for our guys to get there though. Its possible with some cohesion and focused growth in the mental parts of the game.

[RashanGary]

And honestly, the Saints, 49ers, Bills and Patriots havent really been tested just yet.

[beveaux1]

Of the possible playoff teams, the Packers defense is clearly better than:

Seahawks, Cowboys, Rams, Ravens, Raiders

Its in the pack with most of them

And off the top of my head, the clearly better defensive teams are:

49ers, Saints

The rest, for one reason or another, seem to have limitations just like our defense. There is a path for our guys to get there though. Its possible with some cohesion and focused growth in the mental parts of the game.

Our pass D ranks 23rd, our run D ranks 25th, our overall D ranks 28th in YPG. Our 3rd down D ranks 19th overall, but 29th over the last 3 games. Our red zone D ranks 8th, but 13th the last 3 games.
The major bright spot is our scoring D ranks 12th, but 18th over the last 3 games.

I don't see a single playoff type team that we look clearly better than, but I agree that a lot of playoff type teams have weaknesses on defense.
I also think that if the defense shows improvement in critical areas, we are better equipped to win a game in the playoffs.
Unfortunately, the trend for our defense has been downward.

If this D continues their slide, we'll have a hard time making it to an NFC Conference championship, but our weak schedule should land us in the
playoffs.

[Freak Out]

Anything is possible if the offense stays healthy...but the D just gives up way to many yards and can't get off the field. The fucking Chargers dominated them. If they end up with home games the odds are better.

[3irty1]

Offense and defense don't exist in a vacuum. Good offense results in less time playing defense and good defense results in more opportunities on offense. To my sniff test, the defense is nothing special but they do well enough to keep the team in games. If the offense puts up 20 the Packers will probably win; in the golden years we practically started each game with 20. Seems to me its going to be the offense that takes this team to the next level or not.

[mraynrand]

Defense is still #12 is yards allowed. Passing by Rodgers and passing by the defense is almost identical except Rodgers is 17/2 and defense allowed 12/9 TD/INT ratio. Packers give up 20.5 point/game. If the offense just gets a bit more efficient the defense is good enough. The loss of NO to ATL at home shows they are just as vulnerable as any other team. A win over the 49ers means this team can beat anyone. It will come down to Rodgers and the offense being more efficient and more mistake free than the opposition. I suspect they will end at the Divisional round, but I'm thinking their ceiling may now include SB. Do not like to see Minnesota rounding into shape.

[Joemailman]

Defense is still #12 is yards allowed. Passing by Rodgers and passing by the defense is almost identical except Rodgers is 17/2 and defense allowed 12/9 TD/INT ratio. Packers give up 20.5 point/game. If the offense just gets a bit more efficient the defense is good enough. The loss of NO to ATL at home shows they are just as vulnerable as any other team. A win over the 49ers means this team can beat anyone. It will come down to Rodgers and the offense being more efficient and more mistake free than the opposition. I suspect they will end at the Divisional round, but I'm thinking their ceiling may now include SB. Do not like to see Minnesota rounding into shape.

I assume you meant defense is #12 in points allowed.

[pbmax]

Based on DVOA, Packers are 8th. That is Divisional Round. Before the Chargers loss, they were 6th.

[mraynrand]

I assume you meant defense is #12 in points allowed.

yes, yes, Another mistake. This one should finish me off.

[Joemailman]

yes, yes, Another mistake. This one should finish me off.

Calm down. You're saved by the bye week. Take some time off. See the family. Don't do any stupid shit.

[Joemailman]

Based on DVOA, Packers are 8th. That is Divisional Round. Before the Chargers loss, they were 6th.

FO has Packers with best shot at #2 seed. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

[beveaux1]

I think the NFC has better teams than the Packers, but over all there is no clear great team.
The Saints, Vikings, and even the Cowboys might be better personnel-wise, but the Cowboys
have Garrett and the Vikings have Cousins. That levels the playing field.

We’d have to completely collapse to end up with less than 11 wins given our remaining schedule.
We’re playing well on the road, so even if we somehow don’t win the division, we have a chance to
win playoff games. Reminds me a little of 2010.

We shouldn’t go far, but we might.

[RashanGary]

Based on DVOA, Packers are 8th. That is Divisional Round. Before the Chargers loss, they were 6th.

Your dvoa stats line up decent with my ginstincts.

[RashanGary]

Just watching the games and trusting the Ol’ ginstincts (gut/instincts) my irrational, emotional, dip shit mind sees things differently than those yards per game stats. I see about a top 10 offense with some signs of being clear top 5 with some slight improvements.

[RashanGary]

Offense and defense don't exist in a vacuum. Good offense results in less time playing defense and good defense results in more opportunities on offense. To my sniff test, the defense is nothing special but they do well enough to keep the team in games. If the offense puts up 20 the Packers will probably win; in the golden years we practically started each game with 20. Seems to me its going to be the offense that takes this team to the next level or not.

I like the way you see the big picture and indirect cause and affect.

I still think the Packers defense is really close to clicking. They’re so close and have the talent. It’s just knowing where the help is and when to take the shots and they’re ever so close to doing it!

[Joemailman]

Just watching the games and trusting the Ol’ ginstincts (gut/instincts) my irrational, emotional, dip shit mind sees things differently than those yards per game stats. I see about a top 10 offense with some signs of being clear top 5 with some slight improvements.

Oh. I thought ginstincts were your instincts after drinking gin.

[RashanGary]

One night my sister was trying to prove points to me using physics and science from her extreme over education and I said, look Emily, I’m almost 40 years old. I’ve tried to science and prove everything long enough. I trust my ginstincts. And I meant to say gut or instincts but it came out ginstincts. It sounded so simple minded and stupid, I just had to keep it.

[Joemailman]

I think any noticeable improvement will have to come from the defense. I think with the current group of receivers, upside of the offense is limited.

Defense is another matter. Many of their problems are self-inflicted. Improving the communication in the secondary would make a big difference. That's doable.

[RashanGary]

I like to take in information and cycle it through about a zillion experiences and then spit out a best guess based on the information and roll with it. When I put too much energy into trying to prove shit, all i do is prove how right I would have been if I’d only trusted my ginstincts. So I’m done proving shit with linear thinking. Shake it all around in the Ol chimp tumbler of a brain and see what falls out. It’s been highly scientific and effective for me.

[RashanGary]

I will say, the dvoa stat of 8th overall sounds right. I see the Packers as CLEAR top half of the league with their biggest problem being slight lack of understanding of when to be aggressive. Their biggest strength is raw physical talent.

With some health, growth and cohesion, it’s lining up for a possible championship finish. You’d rather have young guys who are just about to get it then old duds who can’t do it.