Official 2020 Non-FA Non-Draft Packer Offseason

[pbmax]

Its panic season everyone! Please be careful when burning your furnishings.

Post your personal score below.

Andy Herman @AndyHermanNFL

It’s Monday following a playoff loss & the entire gang is back together:

Fire everyone!!!

Trade Rodgers!!! (it’s a salary cap nightmare)

Every free agent should take a hometown discount!!!

Good riddance to (current free agent)!!!

Cut everyone!!!

We need more speed!!!

[pbmax]

I scored a 4, might move to 5 depending on WR corp (cut everyone).

(fire Pettine curious, hometown discount (Bulaga-I would call it inevitable knee injury discount but whatever), good riddance (Graham), more speed)

[Zool]

1. More speed at the MLB and WR.

Watching the 49ers eat up outside zone runs and screen passes showed how it could look.

[pbmax]

They are not going to move Savage. He needs to step up and be quicker to recognize. Needs a Year 2 jump.

[texaspackerbacker]

Non-FA Non-Draft Packer? What does that even mean? Trades? That hardly ever happens these days. Improvement from within? Maybe, but that begs the question, if it didn't already happen, how is it supposed to happen now?

One probably insignificant thing I recall was a young O Lineman named Yosh Nijman - I was wondering why he didn't appear on the latest roster, and it turns out he was put on IR Dec. 19. Supposedly he might be a project ready to contribute next season. Keeping Raven Greene healthy might also help a lot.

My biggest hope - which very likely ain't gonna happen - going into next season would be switching to a 4-3 Defense, using the Smiths as DEs, which they basically play like now, and having a couple of true OLBs playing OLB, maybe Fackrell being one of those.

[pbmax]

We have a FA thread. And a draft thread.

There are sorts of other moves that happen in the offseason. It'll get full before long.

[mraynrand]

Keep it organized, Packerrats!

[Freak Out]

lol

[Joemailman]

Keep it organized, Packerrats!

I think it was Will Rogers who said, "I am not a member of any organized Packer forum. I am a Packerrat."

[Joemailman]

These guys aren't REAL free agents.


The Green Bay Packers signed TE Evan Baylis, T Cody Conway, RB Damarea Crockett (DUH-marr-ee-aye), CB Kabion Ento (kay-be-on N-toe), TE James Looney, LB Randy Ramsey, WR Darrius Shepherd, WR Malik Taylor, QB Manny Wilkins and LB Tim Williams. The transactions were announced Tuesday by General Manager Brian Gutekunst.

All of the players finished the season on the Packers' practice squad.

[texaspackerbacker]

I want to see what Looney can do as a TE. Ramsey looked good in preseason. And I still think Darrius Shepherd has a NFL future.

[pbmax]

La Fleur is not sure Pettine and defensive staff will be retained apparently.

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/packers-decide-mike-pettine

[beveaux1]

La Fleur is not sure Pettine and defensive staff will be retained apparently.

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/packers-decide-mike-pettine

I understand his dilemma. The defense won some games this year, something we haven’t had a defense do since what seems like the Favre years, but it was clearly out coached and outmanned in 3 games this year...all on the west coast.

The real problem was that they never could adjust to what SF was doing. Inside runs worked and our defenders had no gap discipline. Outside runs were explosive plays nearly every time. We couldn’t ( or wouldn’t) set the edge and our LBs and DBs couldn’t defeat the blocks.

That speaks to coaching and philosophy (run D is Unnecessary, gap discipline is overrated). Is that what we need going forward.

[pbmax]

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein
#Packers coach Matt LaFleur is wasting no time in interviewing candidates for the open secondary position. Former #Vikings DBs coach Jerry Gray, who worked for Mike Zimmer during his entire Minnesota tenure (2014-'19), was in Green Bay for an interview, an NFL source said.

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein
Gray has been coaching in the NFL since 1999 and has two stints as a coordinator, 2001-'05 with Buffalo and 2011-'13 with Tennessee.

[Joemailman]

Tom Silverstein
@TomSilverstein
Another candidate #Packers coach Matt LaFleur is interviewing for Jason Simmons' job is #Dolphins safety coach Tony Oden, two sources said. Oden is another veteran coach -- with 16 years NFL experience. Brian Flores let him go after the season. He was part of the previous staff.
3:45 PM · Jan 27, 2020·TweetDeck.

[pbmax]

Maybe it wasn’t just McGinn. Silverstein today has a column that Rodgers must change. He offers optimism that this worked for Shanny Jr and Marty Ryan in year 2.

But you know what else worked in Year 2 of Shanny&Ryan?


The Falcons added key offensive parts before the 2016 season such as receivers Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel and center Alex Mack.

:roll:

‪JSO:

https://t.co/R0Qfw4JkXi

[pbmax]

Joe Schad
Preston Williams told @alexmarvez and NFL Radio he was going to go with Packers, if not Dolphins, as undrafted rookie free agent

[gbgary]

we're down to $21.9m in cap space.

[call_me_ishmael]

That's plenty of cap space. I truly believe they could do as much as they want if they're willing to mortgage the future *a little bit*. I don't recall Denver paying a huge "price" for pushing all of that money back and loading up. We should be like Denver if they think they have a shot next year. (I personally do think they do, they're close).

[mraynrand]

Yep, Packers would do whatever they think they need to do to win next year. Windows are short; there are no guarantees. Even so, they probably don't need to go nuts.

[pbmax]

Best thread in a while about data:

Laurie Voss @seldo
A thing not enough people understand about data is that you cannot use it to figure out what is going on from first principles. It doesn't matter how big your data set or how good your visualizations, you can only use data to confirm or deny a hypothesis.

Thread here: https://twitter.com/seldo/status/1226260292377575424?s=21

[pbmax]

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
The #49ers are hiring former #Dolphins defensive backs coach Tony Oden as their new secondary coach, sources say. He fills the spot formerly occupied by Joe Woods — who has become the #Browns defensive coordinator.


He was the other guy that La Fleur interviewed before hiring Gray.

[pbmax]

MarkMaske @MarkMaske
Greg Olsen's visit with the Redskins lasts through today, source says, as
@RapSheet reported. Olsen previously visited the Bills and is to visit the Seahawks, and is expected to have broadcasting opportunities.

Not visiting the Packers it would seem.

[pbmax]

GBGary giving JimO an earful on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/gbgary54/status/1226946953965187072

At least Gary gave us a test we can use as an experiment and possibly falsify.

@gbgary54
yup...not holding my breath that Rodgers will change. his personality dominates MLF's. so without Rodgers fully buying-in I expect the mishmash O to be just as disjointed as this season's despite anyone they get at WR.

[Bretsky]

GBGary giving JimO an earful on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/gbgary54/status/1226946953965187072

At least Gary gave us a test we can use as an experiment and possibly falsify.

@gbgary54
yup...not holding my breath that Rodgers will change. his personality dominates MLF's. so without Rodgers fully buying-in I expect the mishmash O to be just as disjointed as this season's despite anyone they get at WR.



When did you turn all negative nanny ? When I read your post it sounded as depressing as I feel about the Baconator

[pbmax]

When did you turn all negative nanny ? When I read your post it sounded as depressing as I feel about the Baconator

Bolded refers to Gary, right?

He's been worried about Rodgers willingness to work in an offense since before his extension.

[pbmax]

Have some popsicles, 400 of them.

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/fans/2020/02/10/aaron-rodgers-danica-patrick-send-400-ice-pops-packers-fan-whose-hospital-bed-video-went-viral/4713551002/

Request for some QB assistance: https://twitter.com/DanicaPatrick/status/1225954234102775808

[Bretsky]

Bolded refers to Gary, right?

He's been worried about Rodgers willingness to work in an offense since before his extension.

OOPS

I thoght that was you. You need to resume your role as the diplomatic homer :))))

[pbmax]

OOPS

I thoght that was you. You need to resume your role as the diplomatic homer :))))

Slightly less diplomatic now, though always working to find common ground.

And still a homer. Just not tex level yet :D

[call_me_ishmael]

Best thread in a while about data:

Laurie Voss @seldo
A thing not enough people understand about data is that you cannot use it to figure out what is going on from first principles. It doesn't matter how big your data set or how good your visualizations, you can only use data to confirm or deny a hypothesis.

Thread here: https://twitter.com/seldo/status/1226260292377575424?s=21

Didn't expect to see a Seldo reference in here. You're a man of many interests, Peanut Butter.

[texaspackerbacker]

Slightly less diplomatic now, though always working to find common ground.

And still a homer. Just not tex level yet :D

I've noticed you making progress, though.

gbgary got some things right - Rodgers personality dominating La Fleur, at least a maybe on that, as we don't know what goes on behind the scenes. Rodgers didn't completely buy into the La Fleur offensive scheme, but the way his thoughts go off the rails, though, is that the Packers were a helluva lot better off because of that deviation. I will give La Fleur credit, though, for not being to ego-driven, and just rolling with the flow.

[mraynrand]

Have some popsicles, 400 of them.

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/fans/2020/02/10/aaron-rodgers-danica-patrick-send-400-ice-pops-packers-fan-whose-hospital-bed-video-went-viral/4713551002/

Request for some QB assistance: https://twitter.com/DanicaPatrick/status/1225954234102775808

maybe send 13-cis-retinoic acid instead?

[mraynrand]

GBGary giving JimO an earful on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/gbgary54/status/1226946953965187072

At least Gary gave us a test we can use as an experiment and possibly falsify.

@gbgary54
yup...not holding my breath that Rodgers will change. his personality dominates MLF's. so without Rodgers fully buying-in I expect the mishmash O to be just as disjointed as this season's despite anyone they get at WR.

lol. Never change GB Gary. Just once it would be nice if that guy considered that Rodgers and Flower together mapped out plays and formations they thought would work best for Rodgers with the skill players he had, which would include formations that he used with Stubby. Stubborn Rodgers seemed far less responsible for lack of success than diminished Rodgers, and both less responsible than diminished O talent.

[pbmax]

lol. Never change GB Gary. Just once it would be nice if that guy considered that Rodgers and Flower together mapped out plays and formations they thought would work best for Rodgers with the skill players he had, which would include formations that he used with Stubby. Stubborn Rodgers seemed far less responsible for lack of success than diminished Rodgers, and both less responsible than diminished O talent.

Also missed in the conversation is that Jones is not normally the 3rd down back and they don't want to feed him the ball 30 times a game. That limits him in ways not typically seen unless you are San Fran with 3 Pro Bowl options.

Jamaal needs to be the 3rd down back for safety's sake (blocking) and he's good at getting what is blocked and on screens. But he's not explosive.

Packers are a good running team committed to running against favorable boxes. But they aren't the 49ers (now) or the Falcons (2016) yet.

Also, you did not see much of that exotic run game, option and mis-direction from LaFleur this year that Shanny Jr. has. But it was year 1 and there is probably more to that offense than he got to.

[pbmax]

I've noticed you making progress, though.



:tup:

Always more fun to root for success than wallow in failure. Used to be much more critical out of the gate, but that is more a state of mind than an approach to problem solving.

Always admire (and occasionally flabbergasted by) tex's ability to see through Green and Gold colored glasses.

[mraynrand]

Also missed in the conversation is that Jones is not normally the 3rd down back and they don't want to feed him the ball 30 times a game. That limits him in ways not typically seen unless you are San Fran with 3 Pro Bowl options.

in 2008, Nelson, Jones, and Finley were on the roster, but maybe caught 60 passes (Jones second year, Finley and Nelson rookies). In 2009, the offense exploded as these guys more than doubled their production. With a FA and skilled/mature rookie you could see the same advancement for 2020, even accounting for Rodger's continuing age-based decline (which may be somewhat offset by an injury free year and continued recovery). Packers offensive woes are primarily due to personnel.

[pbmax]

in 2008, Nelson, Jones, and Finley were on the roster, but maybe caught 60 passes (Jones second year, Finley and Nelson rookies). In 2009, the offense exploded as these guys more than doubled their production. With a FA and skilled/mature rookie you could see the same advancement for 2020, even accounting for Rodger's continuing age-based decline (which may be somewhat offset by an injury free year and continued recovery). Packers offensive woes are primarily due to personnel.

I suspect Gutey expected 2009 jumps to happen this year for the WR group.

[Bretsky]

I suspect Gutey expected 2009 jumps to happen this year for the WR group.



HOW MUCH MONEY DO YOU THINK AJ GREEN WILL COST ? THAT IS OUR SHORT TERM SOLUTION. We save 8MIL per year dumping Jimmy. Ditch him and add 4 MIL to get AJ.


Then imagine us drafting a top WR as well as my boy Ceephus.


That leaves is with

D Adams
AJ Green
Round 2 Draft Choice
Ceephus
E St Brown
MVS, or whoever wins the last spot.


CHAMPIONSHIP

[texaspackerbacker]

:tup:

Always more fun to root for success than wallow in failure. Used to be much more critical out of the gate, but that is more a state of mind than an approach to problem solving.

Always admire (and occasionally flabbergasted by) tex's ability to see through Green and Gold colored glasses.

It ain't that hard to do when put in the context of the last 25 or so years. Who has been better? Maybe New England; For sure nobody else.

[texaspackerbacker]

HOW MUCH MONEY DO YOU THINK AJ GREEN WILL COST ? THAT IS OUR SHORT TERM SOLUTION. We save 8MIL per year dumping Jimmy. Ditch him and add 4 MIL to get AJ.


Then imagine us drafting a top WR as well as my boy Ceephus.


That leaves is with

D Adams
AJ Green
Round 2 Draft Choice
Ceephus
E St Brown
MVS, or whoever wins the last spot.


CHAMPIONSHIP

A.J. Green is pretty far over the hill. I would be very leery of getting any FA WR for the same reason as well as the fact that this is such an excellent year for drafting them.

D Adams, a high draft pick like Reagor or Duvernay, Lazard, St. Brown, MVS, and Cephus or some similar good route runner - that's the six I would want, and yeah, that kind of an upgrade - a quality speed burner along - would probably mean CHAMPIONSHIP - assuming Rodgers stays healthy, Jones doesn't regress, and we aren't plagued by injuries to the point that the O Line or the D get worse.

CHAMPIONSHIP

[Bretsky]

OOPS...I forgot out the Lizard

So he's the 6, and what I noted above would be a dam good set.

But I don't think AJ Green is over the hill at all; he was just injured last year. He'd be a dam good 2

[pbmax]

It ain't that hard to do when put in the context of the last 25 or so years. Who has been better? Maybe New England; For sure nobody else.


Pittsburgh and Seattle are up there too. Depends on exactly the time period you choose.

But given the distance between NE and everyone else, there is always room for improvement. Unless you are the AFC East.





Rk Tm From To W L T W-L% Count
1 New England Patriots 1995 2019 281 119 0 0.703 400
2 Green Bay Packers 1995 2019 253 145 2 0.635 400
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 1995 2019 250 148 2 0.628 400
4 Denver Broncos 1995 2019 235 165 0 0.588 400
5 Indianapolis Colts 1995 2019 234 166 0 0.585 400
6 Philadelphia Eagles 1995 2019 224 174 2 0.563 400
7 Seattle Seahawks 1995 2019 222 177 1 0.556 400
8 Kansas City Chiefs 1995 2019 217 183 0 0.543 400
9 Minnesota Vikings 1995 2019 216 182 2 0.543 400
10 Dallas Cowboys 1995 2019 214 186 0 0.535 400


Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=career&year_min=1995&year_max=2019&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&temperature_gtlt=lt&c5val=1.0&order_by=pass_td&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#results)
Generated 2/11/2020.

[pbmax]

This is quite a statement from a backer:


MVS: As the conductor on the MVS train since before the draft, this year was difficult to watch and a major disappointment. MVS recently called it a "roller coaster season" on his Instagram account, but really it was more of a Jekyll and Hyde performance. After catching 21 passes for 416 yards and 2 TDs over the first seven games, MVS caught only five passes over the remaining 11 games of the 2019 season and playoffs.

In seven good games he average 3 catches for 59.4 yds and .286 TDs per game. And that counts a 2/133/1 line from Oakland. Over a season that is 48 catches for 950 yards (not terrible) and 4.6 TDs.

If you had a TE maybe you can live with that as your #2 WR.

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/confessions-of-a-polluted-mindset-offseason-2-12-20-225?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[mraynrand]

If you had a TE maybe you can live with that as your #2 WR.

Sure, if you can figure out what the hell happened and repair it.

[mraynrand]

Couple of stats:

75% of passes to Scantron were on downs with 7 or more yards to go.

24/56 targets were deep shots. Only 6 were completed, the last against the Raiders.

[pbmax]

Couple of stats:

75% of passes to Scantron were on downs with 7 or more yards to go.

24/56 targets were deep shots. Only 6 were completed, the last against the Raiders.

He was a designated Go route.

[pbmax]

Ken Ingalls - Packers Cap @KenIngalls

A look at a possible Kenny Clark Extension:

5 year Total - $85,750,000 - $17,150,000 Average
$25,000,000 signing bonus
$43,500,000 guaranteed at signing (signing bonus, 2020 & 2021 base salary & roster bonus)

Most Importantly - 30% Rule Compliant

Thoughts? Questions?


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQ_SYeeVUAAUTWb?format=png&name=large

[Bretsky]

HOLY shit that's a lot of money to give Kenny Clark

[GB-Brandon]

HOLY shit that's a lot of money to give Kenny Clark

Yeah, its getting crazy. Clowney(Seahawks) wants a 100 million.

[run pMc]

HOLY shit that's a lot of money to give Kenny Clark

It is, but they have nobody else that's above average on the DL right now. Lowry is a mid-level starter type.
FWIW, sportrac estimates his market value at $18.2M https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/kenny-clark-18975/market-value/ so pb's post isn't far off.

Honestly, tying him up for 5 years (he'll be 29) isn't bad. Keeping him healthy and pairing him with another above average DL could really improve the defense. Wouldn't be shocked if Gute took a DL in R1.

[pbmax]

And people scoffed at the usefulness of the catch-all offseason thread!

Zach Kruse @zachkruse2
Packers still don't have a WRs coach. Have to wonder now if it'll be an internal promotion to fill the job. Kevin Koger, an offensive QC coach, has experience coaching WRs. So does Luke Getsy, but he's the QBs coach.

[mraynrand]

Zach Kruse @zachkruse2
Packers still don't have a WRs coach.

Why pay for a guy you're not even gonna use?

"Run downfield and scramble around until Davante gets open and I throw it to him" - Aaron Rodgers

[pbmax]

Why pay for a guy you're not even gonna use?

"Run downfield and scramble around until Davante gets open and I throw it to him" - Aaron Rodgers

We have all the WR coach we are ever going to need.

~ Aaron Rodgers


Told you so.

~gbgary

[mraynrand]

We have all the WR coach we are ever going to need.

~ Aaron Rodgers


Told you so.

~gbgary

exactly. Giving Rodgers the WR coach salary is a two-fer. The position is filled and you've found a way to give him a bonus that doesn't count against the cap.

That's why I was in favor of making him the first player/coach since Curly. Added bonus is then that he has to own the results. Everyone is happy, including gbgary - especially if they lose. lol

[pbmax]

MUST SIGN SWERVIN' ERVIN


Ken Ingalls - Packers Cap @KenIngalls
Updated look at the Packers' salary cap:

Current Cap: $23.2M

➕Tender 5 ERFA
➕Draft 10 rookies
➕Extend Clark
➕Sign Bulaga, Crosby, Lewis, Ervin
➖Release Graham, Taylor

Adjusted Cap: $16.4M

➖In-Season Funds
➖Practice Squad
➖Contracts 52 & 53

Spendable Cap: $6.3M


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERPV9-wVAAIEOeA?format=png&name=small

[pbmax]

$6.3 mil seems low and will be close to reality IF Clark is extended AND the new CBA doesn't get signed before his deal.

There is a limit of how much money can be pushed forward in the contract without a CBA in place.

If you get a CBA, then Clark's short term cap hit could go down.

[pbmax]

In other cities:

Joel Corry @corryjoel
Indy's top 51 account for $155.993M in 2020 salary cap commitments. After factoring in the carryover, the Colts are projected to have around $85M in cap space with a salary cap in the $200M neighborhood.

[pbmax]

When everything is filtered through the lens of notoriety (QB) and clicks (return to form), suddenly you are asking the wrong questions.

https://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/48712/matt-lafleurs-year-2-task-the-same-get-aaron-rodgers-back-to-form

An article about getting Rodgers back to form (an offense that ranked 8th in 2019 and 7th in the terrible no-good year of 2018) whose first action item is:

Get better receivers.

[mraynrand]

Rodgers would look awesome with a defense that could stop the run.

[pbmax]

Tom Silverstein
#Packers TE Robert Tonyan underwent core muscle surgery in Philadelphia, according to agent, Jack Bechta. Said the injury bothered Tonyan all year and explains why he couldn’t run the same. William Meyer, who has done the procedure for other #Packers, was the surgeon.

HAS WAITING FOR THIS SURGERY EVER PANNED OUT? cc Greg Jennings

[Cheesehead Craig]

Tom Silverstein
#Packers TE Robert Tonyan underwent core muscle surgery in Philadelphia, according to agent, Jack Bechta. Said the injury bothered Tonyan all year and explains why he couldn’t run the same. William Meyer, who has done the procedure for other #Packers, was the surgeon.

HAS WAITING FOR THIS SURGERY EVER PANNED OUT? cc Greg Jennings

Hey now, Jennings carried the team on his back with a broken leg.

[pbmax]

Andy Herman @AndyHermanNFL
I can’t believe this crazy dairy state has been the home of so many legends:

Giannis Antetokounmpo
Aaron Rodgers
Christian Yelich
Bart Starr
Reggie White
Oscar Robertson
Samkon Gado
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Robin Yount
Hank Aaron
Brett Favre
Ryan Braun
Paul Molitor
Sidney Moncrief

[mraynrand]

That’s a lot of work to sneak in Samkon. Crazy Legs, Buckets and Eric Heiden object.

[pbmax]

That’s a lot of work to sneak in Samkon. Crazy Legs, Buckets and Eric Heiden object.

It was refreshing to see everyone who caught it correct him:

That's Dr. Samkon Gado to you buddy!

[mraynrand]

This is Dr. Bob.
You can call me Bob...MD.

[Joemailman]

Andy Herman @AndyHermanNFL
I can’t believe this crazy dairy state has been the home of so many legends:

Giannis Antetokounmpo
Aaron Rodgers
Christian Yelich
Bart Starr
Reggie White
Oscar Robertson
Samkon Gado
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Robin Yount
Hank Aaron
Brett Favre
Ryan Braun
Paul Molitor
Sidney Moncrief

Can't believe they left out Randall Woodfield.

[Zool]

Does Braun have the numbers to hit the HoF?

Edit: his numbers and comps are all fringe HoF guys except for a couple. Will the roids year make it so the voters keep him out?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/braunry02.shtml

[Joemailman]

Does Braun have the numbers to hit the HoF?

Edit: his numbers and comps are all fringe HoF guys except for a couple. Will the roids year make it so the voters keep him out?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/braunry02.shtml

What will and should keep him out is that his numbers dropped off so much after he was caught. Easy to believe his best years were aided by steroids.

[Joemailman]

Luke Getsy promoted to Passing Game Coordinator. He will continue as QB coach. Jason Vrable promoted from offensive assistant to WR coach.

[pbmax]

Cory Linsley has a second job promoting Creatine as something to help you get the most out of your workouts as you self quarantine. Stay safe!


Corey Linsley @Linsley71
While you’re training at home in whatever capacity you can, check out @LiveMomentous Performance Creatine. Get the most out of your hard work and continue to try to keep yourself and others safe!


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETah8p1X0AEKAvb?format=jpg&name=small

[pbmax]

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter

Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey is signing a four-year extension, averaging $16 million per year, making him the highest-paid running back in NFL history, sources tell ESPN.

[Teamcheez1]

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter

Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey is signing a four-year extension, averaging $16 million per year, making him the highest-paid running back in NFL history, sources tell ESPN.

One of the Packer sites already has an article up noting that Aaron Jones was paying close attention to this deal with his breakout year in 2019 and free agency just around the corner.
I like Jones but just don't see the value in paying him a big contract in our system. Not that I wouldn't like to keep him, but I wouldn't pay him more than half of what McCaffrey signed for.

[texaspackerbacker]

I agree, TeamCheez1.

[pbmax]

SBNation: https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2020/1/3/21048802/epa-primer-from-aaron-jones-to-aaron-rodgers-winston-baldwin-hermsmeyer-jamaal-williams


From an advanced statistics perspective, this was unquestionably the year of EPA (Expected Points Added). While advanced stats in football have been around in some form for about 15 years now (really starting with Football Outsiders and DVOA, which to its credit, still holds up pretty well), there hasn’t been a major advance that’s cracked the mainstream in quite some time. EPA looks poised to do just that, and in many ways it already has.

If you’re unfamiliar with EPA, or haven’t bothered to learn it because some Twitter personalities use it to slag Aaron Rodgers every day, this post is for you, because EPA is actually very simple to understand (even if it’s extremely difficult to calculate). EPA is generally available in real time and don’t be surprised if it begins to pop up on broadcasts in the not too distant future.

So what is EPA, when is it useful, and what do you have to watch out for? Let’s start with this post about Aaron Jones from Bill Barnwell of ESPN. The Packers, as it turns out, are much much more efficient with Aaron Jones on the field than with Jamaal Williams. How much more efficient? Well...

The Packers have run 603 offensive snaps with him on the field. Those snaps have added 90.4 expected points to Green Bay’s offensive output, or 0.15 expected points per play. Only two offenses in football generated more than 0.15 EPA per play this season -- the Ravens and Chiefs. With Jones on the field, the Packers are the third-most dominant offense in football.

Without Jones, they aren’t the same. When Jamaal Williams has replaced Jones in the lineup, the Packers have generated minus-24.33 EPA across 337 snaps, or minus-0.07 EPA per play. The Williams version of the Green Bay offense ranks 29th in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers’ QBR drops from 67.7 with Jones on the field to 28.7 with Williams in the lineup instead.



Don't want to sign him? OK. Find some other offensive talent. Otherwise, he is a MUST sign.

[smuggler]

Jones won't get as much as McCaffrey, but he'll get almost as much. Or he'll get tagged.

[Smidgeon]

SBNation: https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2020/1/3/21048802/epa-primer-from-aaron-jones-to-aaron-rodgers-winston-baldwin-hermsmeyer-jamaal-williams




Don't want to sign him? OK. Find some other offensive talent. Otherwise, he is a MUST sign.

Isn't the counter argument specifically about why they take Jones off the field? For example, 4th and long or something like that. Does EPA adjust for situational football? If so, great.

[Teamcheez1]

Jones won't get as much as McCaffrey, but he'll get almost as much. Or he'll get tagged.

If you think this will be the case, would you be willing to pay $12-$14M a year to sign Jones? I would not.

[pbmax]

Isn't the counter argument specifically about why they take Jones off the field? For example, 4th and long or something like that. Does EPA adjust for situational football? If so, great.

It doesn't account for situational football. Its yards and field position based. But in this case, it what the offense does when he is on the field, even if he isn't carrying the ball.

Jones is probably helped by being option 2 for Rodgers/La Fleur after Adams. If Jones was 1A, he probably isn't as effective. But the offense functioned well enough without Adams that I don't think its Adams alone here.

But the drop-off shows that the Packers don't have any close to replacing Jones as option 1B.

[smuggler]

If you think this will be the case, would you be willing to pay $12-$14M a year to sign Jones? I would not.

Jones is worth about what we are currently paying Davante. But not anything more

[run pMc]

What's Bahktiari worth? Linsley? Kevin King?

They're going to have some choices to make on who to keep and what to pay. They have had some discussions with Jones so they clearly want to keep him at the right price, but it's been established that you do't have to give a RB a huge contract. SF had a pretty good running game and they do it by committee. Tevin Coleman is on a 2yr//$10M contract, and Mostert was basically a journeyman until this past year.

This is where Dexter Williams needs to make a year 2 leap, and Gute will probably be looking at RBs in the draft or UDFA. Over the last 10 years I'm not sure GB has spent a lot of draft capital on RB (relative to other positions).

[pbmax]

What's Bahktiari worth? Linsley? Kevin King?

They're going to have some choices to make on who to keep and what to pay. They have had some discussions with Jones so they clearly want to keep him at the right price, but it's been established that you do't have to give a RB a huge contract. SF had a pretty good running game and they do it by committee. Tevin Coleman is on a 2yr//$10M contract, and Mostert was basically a journeyman until this past year.

This is where Dexter Williams needs to make a year 2 leap, and Gute will probably be looking at RBs in the draft or UDFA. Over the last 10 years I'm not sure GB has spent a lot of draft capital on RB (relative to other positions).

The draft and Dexter Williams probably will determine whether Jones gets signed or not.

Demovsky opined that perhaps they get him for a Austin Ekeler-type deal (four years, $24.5 million) rather than McCaffrey ($75 million over six years) if he gets signed before his last year starts. I think that is unrealistic given the Packers don't have Melvin Gordon around. But as run pMc mentions, they did talk at the Combine.

https://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/48877/whats-next-for-packers-aaron-jones-future-and-the-wr-draft-debate

[pbmax]

McGinn on Zach Baun https://theathletic.com/1739783/2020/04/14/state-nfl-draft-prospects-uws-zack-baun-is-the-cream-of-the-defensive-crop/


Zack Baun, LB, Wisconsin

(6 foot 2 ½, 238 pounds, 4.68 seconds in 40)

Played at Brown Deer. “Love that guy,” one scout said. “That guy’s a football player. He can rush. Those 3-4 teams are going to eat him up so fast. I think he can play stack, too. He’s smart. He’s tough.” Redshirted in 2015 as an OLB after playing quarterback as a prep. Missed three games in 2016 with left knee cartilage damage and a left high-ankle sprain, then all of ’17 with a Lisfranc tear in his left foot. Started every game the past two seasons, finishing with 15 sacks (12 ½ in ’19). “He’s a good third-round pick,” said another scout. “He might go higher than that. He’s borderline too small to be a 3-4 outside backer. He’s tough and has good strength for a guy his size. Scouts have written him as a Sam, a Will and a Mike because he’s instinctive.” In basketball, led Brown Deer to a state championship as a junior. Chose an offer from Wisconsin over one from South Dakota State. “I worry about his tight hips and movement to play in space,” a third scout said. Scored 24 on the Wonderlic intelligence test. According to reports Tuesday, Baun notified all 32 teams that he tested positive for a diluted sample at the combine. He blamed it on drinking too much water for weight-related weigh-in purposes. Under the NFL’s new collective bargaining agreement, it will not count as a strike against him as it would have under the league’s old CBA.
Projection: Second-round pick.

[pbmax]

Now I want this guy just because he is tough and mean.


Robert Windsor, DT, Penn State

(6-4 ½, 290, 4.90)

Played at Fond du Lac. Redshirted in 2015, backed up for two seasons and started for two seasons. “He’s got a quick first step and a high motor,” said one scout. “Keeps his feet moving. He’s better in the pass than the run. His (play) last year was better than this year. Marches to the beat of his own drum. He’s perceived as a selfish guy. Hasn’t bought into the program.” Last off-season, he decided to work out off-campus rather than in the Nittany Lions’ facility. Was suspended for last year’s Citrus Bowl due to a violation of team rules. “Little bit of a wild card,” one scout said. “He’s kind of crazy, both on and off the field. He’s tough and mean.” Finished with 120 tackles (19 for a loss) and 13 sacks. Had just 3 ½ sacks as a senior, including 1 ½ sacks and two quarterback hits at Iowa on the night of Oct. 12. “First game I watched him was against Iowa and that was his golden-look game,” said another scout. “It was, like, ‘Whoa.’ But all his production was in that game. It’s amazing when you look at the stats. The rest of the season was zero, zero, zero.” Arms were 33 1/8. Bench-pressed 21 times. Ran a swift 40. “He is strong and is 100 percent,” said one scout. “You’re going to want the guy in camp, but I don’t think he’ll make it. He’s a try-hard guy. Plays with high pad level. He’s not that big. Basically, what you see is what you get.” Wonderlic of 18.

[pbmax]

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/confessions-of-a-polluted-mindset-offseason-4-15-20-214


Pre-Draft Interviews: Saw an interesting tweet today (you'll need to click through twice to get the graph to full screen):

Two interesting notes for the Packers: 1. They've talked to more cornerbacks than any other position. 2. They don't seem too interested in drafting a tight end. The first one I find mildly surprising, the second one not at all based on the TE draft class this year. Also, the Bears were the only team to use a visit/interview on a long snapper.

Tom Kislingbury @TomKislingbury https://twitter.com/TomKislingbury/status/1250004279714361345
Here's all visits by team broken out by position.

Some things I see:
- The Bucs are looking hard for more OL help.
- The Rams want another RB
- The Cowboys are focusing on defense
- The Ravens know they need a LB
- The Browns and Jets need some big O linemen in the worst way


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVjntk_XYAAs25k?format=png&name=large

[texaspackerbacker]

According to that, the Packers biggest need is a Corner? Somehow, I think this might be misleading in various cases.

[pbmax]

According to that, the Packers biggest need is a Corner? Somehow, I think this might be misleading in various cases.

Packers do try to mislead, no public meetings with some of their favorites. Some of their top draft picks they saw at the Senior Bowl and then weren't publicly in contact again until the draft.

But in this case they are probably looking at people further down the draft. They need a CB or two. King is coming due for a deal and they might or might not get Tramontana back. Packers have traditionally used the in person visits to scout late round picks and UDFA plus medical rechecks. Could be different this year with all remote meetings.

[run pMc]

https://twitter.com/MarcMalusis/status/1250437048143495169

So, as I reported this morning on @MandMWFAN, Source has told me that the Browns and Vikings are in discussions on a trade that would send @obj to the Vikings for a 2nd and 5th round pick next year. Trade is not done, but the deal is being discussed.


They'd be on the hook for a lot of salary, but considering what they got for Diggs this is a good price.

[run pMc]

Packers do try to mislead, no public meetings with some of their favorites. Some of their top draft picks they saw at the Senior Bowl and then weren't publicly in contact again until the draft.

But in this case they are probably looking at people further down the draft. They need a CB or two. King is coming due for a deal and they might or might not get Tramontana back. Packers have traditionally used the in person visits to scout late round picks and UDFA plus medical rechecks. Could be different this year with all remote meetings.

Yeah, I think these are Day 3 picks and UDFA's -- they have traditionally brought in a lot of players like that for visits, although this year these would be virtual interviews. CB is a longer term need for them, so it would make sense for them to kick the tires on some players they can spend a year developing. Interesting to note the vast majority of players interviewed were defensive players for GB, and not many WR's/OT's. As usual, they are keeping their cards close to the vest.

Also -- I noticed Vikings are basically interviewing OL and CB. No surprise there.

[pbmax]

Lofton video with Vin Scully and John Madden on the call. He didn't need scuba gloves to catch that one-handed.

https://twitter.com/GreenGold4Ever/status/1229188769737256960

[pbmax]

Everyone should follow Jorty Nelson

https://twitter.com/JortyNelson87

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1162090781126975488/zpKgVX_G_400x400.jpg

[pbmax]

JSO has already decided where Rodgers will end up.

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein
New from JSOnline and PackersNews: Packers Morning Buzz: Bears QB Aaron Rodgers? Chicago makes sense as potential next stop https://ift.tt/2SGcsHB #Packers

[mraynrand]

JSO has already decided where Rodgers will end up.

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein
New from JSOnline and PackersNews: Packers Morning Buzz: Bears QB Aaron Rodgers? Chicago makes sense as potential next stop https://ift.tt/2SGcsHB #Packers

They could at least hide their contempt

[pbmax]

They could at least hide their contempt

Whoops. Unfairly maligned JSO. They are just linking to Rob Reischel writing for Forbes online, which is one of the worst content mills out there.

No one looks good here.

[Bretsky]

JSO has already decided where Rodgers will end up.

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein
New from JSOnline and PackersNews: Packers Morning Buzz: Bears QB Aaron Rodgers? Chicago makes sense as potential next stop https://ift.tt/2SGcsHB #Packers



Rodgers belongs with Hoody Genius and Hoody Genius Jr

[Smidgeon]

There is so much abject click-bait speculation going on in the guise of reporting; it's revolting. Of course, that's a blanket statement, but I am specifically talking about Rodgers right now.

And the outlets "reporting" on people who have had direct conversations with Rodgers are not taking into account their source's ability/inability to be biased.

[pbmax]

Video say 2004 contemplated change, but Wolf wasn't around then and it doesn't match any of the other stories.

The usual depiction of this uniform choice looks like this:


http://www.angelfire.com/blues/new_yorker/images/packers_1994redesign.gif

[pbmax]

But in video of an actual helmet prototype (2 exist, Pepper Buress has the other), the gold is much flatter and paler. Green on it, especially the facemask, looks faded. Live on TV, it looks terrible.


https://www.pbs.org/video/appraisal-2004-green-bay-packers-prototype-gold-helmet-mlvv6/

[Joemailman]

But in video of an actual helmet prototype (2 exist, Pepper Buress has the other), the gold is much flatter and paler. Green on it, especially the facemask, looks faded. Live on TV, it looks terrible.


https://www.pbs.org/video/appraisal-2004-green-bay-packers-prototype-gold-helmet-mlvv6/

I wonder why they went with such a dull gold. I though Wolf got the idea of a gold helmet from Notre Dame's uniform. Yet the Notre Dame helmets are far brighter.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcS4dEK6tnx4o-PXmYj_ENgaEE1TX4V9GxahjPRppQpz6Et43oUH&usqp=CAU

[pbmax]

Demovsky

Packers area scout Charles Walls, who has been with the team since 2013, is leaving to join the Browns' personnel department, according to sources. Walls covered the Southeast region for the Packers, but is receiving a promotion on new GM Andrew Barry's staff. The Browns still employ former Packers scout Glen Cook, who is Cleveland's assistant director of scouting.

[GB-Brandon]

Demovsky

Packers area scout Charles Walls, who has been with the team since 2013, is leaving to join the Browns' personnel department, according to sources. Walls covered the Southeast region for the Packers, but is receiving a promotion on new GM Andrew Barry's staff. The Browns still employ former Packers scout Glen Cook, who is Cleveland's assistant director of scouting.

Probably the most important region.

[pbmax]

Probably the most important region.

Yep. Especially 7th round and UDFA. Lotta talent there that can't always make it to FBS or, like Shields, is just inexperienced due to circumstances and depth.

Did Alonso Highsmith get picked up?

[GB-Brandon]

Yep. Especially 7th round and UDFA. Lotta talent there that can't always make it to FBS or, like Shields, is just inexperienced due to circumstances and depth.

Did Alonso Highsmith get picked up?

Not of anything I have seen.

[GB-Brandon]

Sam Shields was one of my fav guys. Felt like he got underappreciated a little. Great cover guy with just amazing recovery speed. Too bad the concussion thing happened.

[pbmax]

Rob Demovsky @RobDemovsky
Packers went from about $11 million in cap space to $13.909 million with this move


Rob Demovsky @RobDemovsky
Here's the breakdown of Lane Taylor's renegotiated last year:

Signing bonus: $100,000.
Base salary: $910,000.
Roster bonus: Up to $400,000 ($25,000 per game active).
Workout bonus: $90,000.
Salary-cap charge: $2.4 million.
Total cash: $1.5 million... https://es.pn/2ZZcEWS


Ken Ingalls - Packers Cap @KenIngalls
When the Packers sign their 6 remaining draft picks, they will have around $11.7M cap space remaining.

Subtract amounts needed for practice squad & the full 53 man roster, they will have $8.7M.

Then subtract at least another $5.0M-$7.5M for a season piggy b

[Zool]

Rob Demovsky @RobDemovsky
Packers went from about $11 million in cap space to $13.909 million with this move


Rob Demovsky @RobDemovsky
Here's the breakdown of Lane Taylor's renegotiated last year:

Signing bonus: $100,000.
Base salary: $910,000.
Roster bonus: Up to $400,000 ($25,000 per game active).
Workout bonus: $90,000.
Salary-cap charge: $2.4 million.
Total cash: $1.5 million... https://es.pn/2ZZcEWS


Ken Ingalls - Packers Cap @KenIngalls
When the Packers sign their 6 remaining draft picks, they will have around $11.7M cap space remaining.

Subtract amounts needed for practice squad & the full 53 man roster, they will have $8.7M.

Then subtract at least another $5.0M-$7.5M for a season piggy b

So how much goes to Clark's new deal in late August?

[Joemailman]

So how much goes to Clark's new deal in late August?

Probably little if anything. His cap hit as of now is 7.7 million. They could give him a signing bonus prorated over 4-5 years with a low base salary for this year without increasing his cap hit.