It's Gutey Time

[Joemailman]

The season is over. Matt LaFleur, take a seat. For the next 3 months, the most important decisions affecting the team on the field will be made by Brian Gutekunst. A look at some of the decisions he's made in the past, both good and bad, and some he will have to make this year.

The Good:

In the 2018 draft, traded down from the 14th pick, picked up the Saints 2019 1st round pick, then traded up to the 18th pick and drafted Jaire Alexander.

Had a role in the hiring of Matt LaFleur in 2019. It was at his assistance that LaFleur was added to the list of coaches to be interviewed as McCarthy's replacement.

In the 2019 draft, traded up from the Saints pick to draft Darnell Savage. Although he traded 2 picks to do it, Savage looks like a keeper for a team that desperately needed help at Safety.

In the 2019 draft, drafted Jenkins in the 2nd round. Jenkins is already one of the best LG's in he NFL.

Released an injury-riddled Mike Daniels thereby saving the Packers 10 million in salary.

In 2019 free agency, Signed Zadarius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, and Billy Turner to contracts. The Smiths were fantastic, Amos was solid at a position of previous weakness, and Turner was an improvement over the players from the year before.

Late in 2018 season, signed Allen Lazard to practice squad. Lazard became key contributor in 2019 season.

The Bad:

In the 2018 draft, drafted Josh Jones in the 2nd round, who after 1 year, decided he wanted out.

In the 2018 draft, traded up into the 3rd round to draft Oren Burks who has been a big disappointment. His career isn't over, but it's not looking good.

In 2018, signed Jimmy Graham to a 3 year, 30 million dollar contract. Graham has been mediocre, and the Packers will probably release Graham and eat 3.7M of dead money.

Still to be decided:

Rashan Gary - An unpopular pick in 2019 draft with many, playing behind the Smiths he showed some impressive ability to create pressure on QB. However, he is a long way from silencing his critics.

Jace Sternberger - A 3rd round pick whose rookie season was largely sidelined by training camp injuries.

Equanimeous St. Brown - A 6th round pick in 2018 who showed some real promise but who missed all of 2019 with an injury.

Decisions To Be Made:

Jimmy Graham - Packers top Tight End, but few would argue he's worth the money.

Blake Martinez - A free agent, he was 2nd in the NFL in tackles, just behind Bobby Wagner. But he's not in Wagner's class. How much is he worth?

Bryan Bulaga - A free agent, still one of the NFL's best RT's. In fact one could argue he's as good as he's ever been. But that injury history...

The Draft - The NFC Title Game exposed Packers weaknesses in the front 7 against the run. But Rodgers needs at least 1 elite weapon.

Free Agency - He will have the money to make some moves, but where?

[Deputy Nutz]

Jones was drafted in the 2017 draft, Josh Jackson was drafted in 2018. Both have been epic failures.

[Deputy Nutz]

Oren Burks was a silly pick. Gute fell in love with his times, should look at more tape.

Gute is a numbers guy which means a combine guy, and he was made big moves in the draft because of this and so far Burks, and Gary are very big question marks.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

The NFC Title Game exposed Packers weaknesses in the front 7 against the run. But Rodgers needs at least 1 elite weapon.

The NFC Title game didn't expose Pettine's inability to stonewall the run. No, the 69ers merely exploited that weakness. #30 of the Broncos exposed the run D in week 3 or whatever. Pettine failed to fix the shitty run D in the aftermath of the Bronco game, and consequently, the Title Game infamy.

What the fuck was the 69er pounding? Wisconsin vs Purdue? No NFL defense should get pounded that badly. Off with Pettine's head!

[pbmax]

The NFC Title game didn't expose Pettine's inability to stonewall the run. No, the 69ers merely exploited that weakness. #30 of the Broncos exposed the run D in week 3 or whatever. Pettine failed to fix the shitty run D in the aftermath of the Bronco game, and consequently, the Title Game infamy.

What the fuck was the 69er pounding? Wisconsin vs Purdue? No NFL defense should get pounded that badly. Off with Pettine's head!

Their run defense looked much better in the second half of the year. But it’s always possible that was just the slate of opponents.

[texaspackerbacker]

The run D got exposed in the Denver game, and for a while, teams exploited that. Then either opponents inexplicably stopped doing that exploiting or Pettine fixed things - until the Niners went back to taking advantage. Personnel was at least as much to blame as Pettine's designing of the D. That means GMship. You could say Gutekunst is at fault, and based on Joe's post, he's had a fair amount of failures. I'd say, though, it goes back well before his time.

Past is past - assuming we're not talking about getting rid of Gutekunst. The decisions to be made. especially where to go from here in drafts and free agency are what's important. His tendency to sign other teams' FAs makes the outlook promising IMO.

[run pMc]

So far the good outweighs the bad and his job is safe today IMO. This next draft and offseason is going to be very important since they still have holes in the roster and less money to spend in FA.

[beveaux1]

Historically, the first round of a draft results in about half the picks not achieving NFL success. Every subsequent round, the success rate drops. If an NFL draft produces a couple of starters and a couple of top reserves after 3 years, it was a successful draft.

No GM hits with every draft choice. No GM hits with every first round draft choice. If a GM is successful, he'll hit on more than half his first round picks over his career...after those picks have three years to mature and progress in the league.

We don't even know if Gute's first draft is successful since he's only been the GM for two years and Alexander, Jackson, and Burks from his first draft are still on the team and could contribute next year. Way too early to brand either of his drafts a success or a failure.

We just don't know.

[GB-Brandon]

Well compared too Ted Thompson who turned the franchise into a dumpster fire with a franchise QB Gute has since done a pretty good job overall. He has basically turned over most of the roster. Sure, the Graham signing or the Burks pick or the Gary pick we’re questionable but overall he has done a fine job IMO. Savage and Jenkins were both on the “PFF All-Rookie Team” so already some success in last years draft. Jaire Alexander is the best corner we’ve had since Sam Shields. He replaced an aging Clay Matthews and a horrible Nick Perry with younger and better options on the edge(that we have locked up). My only major complaint would be the continuing of not giving Rodgers the weaponry he needs on offense to be successfull.

I have laid out in another thread of what I would like to see in regards to the original posters thread. The long and the short of it is Gute has the resources and draft capital to complete the makeover. The main focus is being able to get tougher upfront on defense and a little faster in the middle along with re-vamping the receiving Corp with the right guys that can make us a more explosive offensive team.

I’m hoping this is the vision.

[mraynrand]

I have laid out in another thread of what I would like to see in regards to the original posters thread. The long and the short of it is Gute has the resources and draft capital to complete the makeover. The main focus is being able to get tougher upfront on defense and a little faster in the middle along with re-vamping the receiving Corp with the right guys that can make us a more explosive offensive team.

I’m hoping this is the vision.

I agree

[RashanGary]

ILB, DL and WR like others are saying

[RashanGary]

If you let Graham, Taylor, Tramon, Martinez, Fackrell walk.... You should be able to bring in an ILB and DL.

[RashanGary]

Burafict and a draft pick at ILB

[call_me_ishmael]

Burafict and a draft pick at ILB

Dude there is a zero percent chance that moron is reinstated let alone playing in GB. He is bad for the league. Hard pass.

[Fritz]

Well compared too Ted Thompson who turned the franchise into a dumpster fire with a franchise QB Gute has since done a pretty good job overall. He has basically turned over most of the roster. Sure, the Graham signing or the Burks pick or the Gary pick we’re questionable but overall he has done a fine job IMO. Savage and Jenkins were both on the “PFF All-Rookie Team” so already some success in last years draft. Jaire Alexander is the best corner we’ve had since Sam Shields. He replaced an aging Clay Matthews and a horrible Nick Perry with younger and better options on the edge(that we have locked up). My only major complaint would be the continuing of not giving Rodgers the weaponry he needs on offense to be successfull.

I have laid out in another thread of what I would like to see in regards to the original posters thread. The long and the short of it is Gute has the resources and draft capital to complete the makeover. The main focus is being able to get tougher upfront on defense and a little faster in the middle along with re-vamping the receiving Corp with the right guys that can make us a more explosive offensive team.

I’m hoping this is the vision.


I agree here. What this team needs is another stud up front to pair with Clark. Someone powerful and big and quick. Then you really need to dump your ILB's and start over. Oral Burks is at best a special teams guy at this point, and Martinez is still running to get to his gap responsibility on that first quarter play of the NFCC. Dump him. You need speed there, man, an some toughness or at least a willingness to play tough.

I agreed with The Flower and was aghast at the lack of urgency the Packers - once again - displayed against San Fran. WTF? Were they intimidated? Just happy to be there? But man, if you watch porn and you know what "gaping" is, then you know what I mean when I say the Niners were running through gaping holes in that defense. It was unnerving - SF only had to pass eight times in the whole game? Wow.

Maybe that 14-4 was a bit of a mirage after all. After that game, this Packer team looks about as far behind the Niners as they did after that "579" game a few years back.

[texaspackerbacker]

Seems like we're all in agreement, the biggest trouble spot is the D Line. Yet we get this press conference where it seems like LaFleur thinks otherwise. That's a little bit disturbing.

Fritz, "gaping" is two bad running plays in a row - the penetration is so strong that there's still a big hole for the next play.

Looking back on the season, I don't think the 14-4 was really a mirage so much as the whole league was kinda down this year - just a few good teams and a lot of mediocre at best ones who were able to beat despite various deficiencies.

[GB-Brandon]

I’ve always been a believer that great push and pressure upfront covers up a lot of deficiencies on the back end while lack of it exposes those same deficiencies “ten fold”.

I am actually going to the draft this year in Las Vegas and if the Packers use up another top pick on a DB I just might stay there.

[Joemailman]

In my opinion Lowry went from being an above average backup/rotational guy to a below average starter. He can play, but they need someone better than him to line up next to Clark. Gutey overpaid for him, but he can still be effective in a lesser role.

[pbmax]

I think "gaping" is a search term that will get you in trouble.

"Gapping" means you are playing one or two specific areas or responsibility along the LOS.

[GB-Brandon]

In my opinion Lowry went from being an above average backup/rotational guy to a below average starter. He can play, but they need someone better than him to line up next to Clark. Gutey overpaid for him, but he can still be effective in a lesser role.

Looks like a bad contract right now(don’t save any $ by letting him go) and it might get in the way because they gotta extend Clark and I think they need two new guys on top of that to safeguard from injury. Let me remind everyone that the niners aren’t going anywhere looking at how they are built. I don’t believe in building a team to beat one particular team but they will most likely be in our way again.

It’s tough because I was hoping this was the year they could finally go WR in 1st.

[Joemailman]

Looks like a bad contract right now(don’t save any $ by letting him go) and it might get in the way because they gotta extend Clark and I think they need two new guys on top of that to safeguard from injury. Let me remind everyone that the niners aren’t going anywhere looking at how they are built. I don’t believe in building a team to beat one particular team but they will most likely be in our way again.

It’s tough because I was hoping this was the year they could finally go WR in 1st.

I think the strength of this WR class negates the need to go WR in the 1st. Some are saying this group is better than the great WR group of 2014 when Davante Adams was the 9th WR drafted. Not that I'll complain if Gutey takes Reagor at #30.

[GB-Brandon]

I think the strength of this WR class negates the need to go WR in the 1st. Some are saying this group is better than the great WR group of 2014 when Davante Adams was the 9th WR drafted. Not that I'll complain if Gutey takes Reagor at #30.

I think it’s better then 2014. It’s 14-15 deep with some real nice sleepers after that.

Yeah, I wouldn’t complain a bit if Reagor was the pick either.

[wist43]

I think Gute has done a very good job so far... he had a lot of mess to fix.

Keep building on what he started.

WR, DL, ILB

We need at least 1 Kenny Clark quality type of player on the DL, and hopefully Keke will step up. Let Martinez walk. Burks was Gute's biggest WTF pick so far... hopefully, he got that out of his system.

[pbmax]

Bill Huber
YAC attack? Not with the #Packers receivers. They forced a total of nine missed tackles, according to @PFF.

18 individual receivers had more.

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/packers-receivers-failed-to-provide-yac-attack

[Joemailman]

Bill Huber
YAC attack? Not with the #Packers receivers. They forced a total of nine missed tackles, according to @PFF.

18 individual receivers had more.

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/packers-receivers-failed-to-provide-yac-attack

Is some of this on the QB though? Seems to me you have less chance to break a tackle if you're having to reach back, up or down to catch the ball. Catching a ball in stride gives you a batter chance to get momentum or make a move that can lead to a broken tackle.

[pbmax]

Is some of this on the QB though? Seems to me you have less chance to break a tackle if you're having to reach back, up or down to catch the ball. Catching a ball in stride gives you a batter chance to get momentum or make a move that can lead to a broken tackle.

You might think that, unless you have seen Lewis, Graham and Allison in action. I don't remember which game, but a wind gust once stopped Allison for no gain on 2nd down on the North side of the field. I think it went through Section 109's entranceway. Brutal.

Sure, some of it is on the QB, who didn't get his short game accuracy into gear until Adams got hurt and never figured out the deep ball. And he was always good until the playoffs for 2-3 throws that were unnecessarily difficult.

But even when in stride, receivers got nowhere. Graham actually hit the accelerator once or twice in the playoffs, but that was it. And the receivers don't fit the offense, or, at least don't fit what is needed. Big slot guy WR failed this year and no one developed. In retrospect, anticipating WR's develop AND learn a new offense with their QB was too much to expect.

So you can change the offense, the QB, or get two new WR.

If Gute rolls with this WR crew again, he might be ending two careers.

Failing to have a backup QB to challenge, Gute has to know the answer here.

[Joemailman]

I wasn't suggesting they need to change the QB, just that they might have more broken tackles if the QB threw more accurately.

I don't see Gute going with the same WR group. ESB will be back, and he'll draft at least 1 by the 3rd round.

[pbmax]

I wasn't suggesting they need to change the QB, just that they might have more broken tackles if the QB threw more accurately.

I don't see Gute going with the same WR group. ESB will be back, and he'll draft at least 1 by the 3rd round.

If its MVS getting those throws, perhaps. But I am not sure Graham, Lewis or Allison get much more. I have never seen receiver get less yards resisting tackles than Allison. Terry Glenn got more YAC falling forward, head down, to avoid contact than Allison.

[run pMc]

YAC and broken tackles is not a thing with the WRs, which is weird considering they are big (well, tall at least).
Allison is neither quick nor fast, and at 6-3 200 not gonna truck a lot of tacklers. His playing style isn't a physical one either.

Agree with joe on ESB coming back and Gute drafting at least one before Day 2 ends. I figure ESB will replace Allison, Lazard can play some Z with Adams at X, they draft 2 guys to replace Kumerow and push MVS. I know MVS had a few injuries, I wonder if those plus the new offense got him.

At TE I like Lewis better than Graham, although I appreciate that Jimmy did improve his blocking this year. All they really have there is Sternberger. Tonyan is not a starter (unless he really makes a Year3 jump) and they need more from the TE spot IMO.

[Fritz]

If its MVS getting those throws, perhaps. But I am not sure Graham, Lewis or Allison get much more. I have never seen receiver get less yards resisting tackles than Allison. Terry Glenn got more YAC falling forward, head down, to avoid contact than Allison.


Allison is the Richard "Sack O' Potatoes" Rodgers of wide receivers.

[Bretsky]

Allison is the Richard "Sack O' Potatoes" Rodgers of wide receivers.


I agree; he's the guy you want to replace.

Too all posters, did I miss something with ESB ? I never really saw a bunch of upside with him. I thought he'd be a 5/6 for us with minimal upsaide. I was way higher on MVS than him. Who is high on him ?

Regardless we need to add two weapons to the receiving core.

I think we can survive wiht an imporved Sternberger and Mercedes Lewis is we add a couple WR's in the draft.

HINT HINT HINT............CEEPHUS one one other

I'm in WI Badger withdrawal and would really like a Badger I like on the Packers.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I was higher on ESB than MVS before the year. Both have great size and speed, but ESB actually showed some ball skills and versatility in his route running.

MVS is a poor man's Qadry Ismail.

[pbmax]

I was higher on ESB than MVS before the year. Both have great size and speed, but ESB actually showed some ball skills and versatility in his route running.

MVS is a poor man's Qadry Ismail.

That will leave a mark.

[Joemailman]

I agree; he's the guy you want to replace.

Too all posters, did I miss something with ESB ? I never really saw a bunch of upside with him. I thought he'd be a 5/6 for us with minimal upsaide. I was way higher on MVS than him. Who is high on him ?

Regardless we need to add two weapons to the receiving core.

I think we can survive wiht an imporved Sternberger and Mercedes Lewis is we add a couple WR's in the draft.

HINT HINT HINT............CEEPHUS one one other

I'm in WI Badger withdrawal and would really like a Badger I like on the Packers.

I saw St. Brown play quite a bit in college because I follow Notre Dame. Was always impressed with his ability to make tough catches. Great size and good and deceptive speed. Made some nice plays late in the season on 2018. Arod woild have a lot more confidence throwing a 50/50 ball to him than MVS

[run pMc]

ESB's route running was superior to MVS in Year 1, and I didn't see much improvement in MVS' routes in Year 2. I don't know how to describe it, but I think ESB's Football IQ is higher than MVS as well.
Finally, I thought ESB ran some nice routes over the middle last year and felt he could be a candidate for the big slot receiver -- at a minimum, he's a better athlete and bigger than Allison.

So yeah, I'm on the ESB bandwagon, but you never know...sometimes these guys tease with promise and vanish.

[Bretsky]

I was higher on ESB than MVS before the year. Both have great size and speed, but ESB actually showed some ball skills and versatility in his route running.

MVS is a poor man's Qadry Ismail.


TY for offering this !! I missed some Packer games that year due to coaching so I just might have missed the upside in EVS.

So going into next year, would you consider the guys who definitely deserve roster spots at WR at 1. Adams 2, . The Lizard 3. EVS and after that nothing is guaranteed ?

[texaspackerbacker]

So now we've got a St. Brown bandwagon in addition to the Sternberger one. Of the two, I prefer ESB. I still have a hope for Valdez-Scantling, though. Continue to develop MVS and ESB, and get max snaps from Adams and Lazard and hopefully a new speed burner like Duvernay, and that amounts to a very decent WR corps.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

St. Paul? I still reside in cold, dark and dull Wisconsin, so I get preseason games live over the air. On the play that knocked St. Paul our for the season, after St. Paul got the the sideline, one could see Rodgers glancing over at St. Paul for a second. Look on Rodgers face was, meh, no big loss.

There were plenty of Wu-Tang WRs in the last draft, especially DK Fucking Metcalf. Tex would’ve had a hardon for Mecole Hardiman - dude’s pretty much just a clone of women beater T-Hill. German Shepherd fucked up.

[run pMc]

Ostensibly 30 other GMs did too, since SEA stopped his fall when DK got drafted at the end of the 2nd round. Why oh why didn't Schneider take him in R1?

[run pMc]

So now we've got a St. Brown bandwagon in addition to the Sternberger one. Of the two, I prefer ESB. I still have a hope for Valdez-Scantling, though. Continue to develop MVS and ESB, and get max snaps from Adams and Lazard and hopefully a new speed burner like Duvernay, and that amounts to a very decent WR corps.

I think they need to draft 2 WRs. Someone like Duvernay probably won't be enough.
MVS disappeared, no idea if he'll re-emerge and they can do better than Allison and Kumerow. If the price is right, I wonder about them signing a vet WR while the youngsters develop. Finding Whitted's replacement will be important.

[Deputy Nutz]

There is multiple ways to address the receiver situation in Green Bay.

Scenario 1: The Draft
The Packers don't have a lot of cap money in the future with Rodgers contract and the Smith's contracts hitting their big cap hits in the next year or two so drafting cheap talent makes some sense. Wide receivers do tend to take a while to develop. There were people here that wanted Adams going after people thought he regressed his second year. So the draft is a gamble, and when it pays off it is usually two or three years down the road. Even a first round pick wouldn't be predicted to produce more than MVS.

There are two ways to attack this draft in terms of acquiring talent at the receiver position. The first is to take talent early in the draft, like in the first round. I am sure the Packers feel good about the talent in the receiver's room, otherwise they wouldn't have fired their WR coach. You can't make chicken salad out of chicken shit. They are not looking to revamp the whole room. Draft one receiver relatively early, and then if a talent drops late on the last day of the draft and there is value there, draft them. The second approach to the draft is to wait and address other positions of need, especially if the depth of the receiver talent is as good as everyone is saying. With this approach you need to draft multiple receivers to locate the diamond in the rough. Similar to when Ron Wolfe drafted three corners in the first three rounds, or when Gute draft 3 receivers late in the 2018 draft.

I personally think there is some good talent that could make an impact in the 2020 season that could be had in the 3rd rounds and 4th rounds. So much with the receiver group is Combine dependent so I am willing to just wait before I compile a list of guys.

The second scenario is look at free agency. spend some money on short term contract of an aging talent and hope you can solidify the group for one maybe two years. I don't know how well this strategy has worked at TE, so I am not always a fan of drafting guys in their 30s with hopes that you get the younger version of them for one or two seasons.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Ostensibly 30 other GMs did too, since SEA stopped his fall when DK got drafted at the end of the 2nd round. Why oh why didn't Schneider take him in R1?

Who cares about the other GMs? Going into the season, wankers danced on the depth chart outside of Adams, and Adams ain't exactly Iron Man (dude can't be counted on to play every fucking game).

Pack might still be playing had German Shepherd drafted Metcalf, Hardman and Brown with his top 3 picks. Gary, Savage and Fucking Center were toothless in the Title Game.

Defense wins championships on neutral courts, but offense gets you homefield throughout the playoffs. No fucking way 69ners pound the rock up and down Pack's rear end at Lambeau.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

The scars of German Shepherd's incompetence remind me of Todd. They keep me thinking that we almost won it all.

Fucking up in the draft. :x

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Btw: Todd was the Polar Bear b/c he loved to hibernate from May to April as he awaited the births of wally rookies.

Gutekunst is the German Shepherd b/c he's German, and as Shakespeare used to say, the owners are all but greedy wolves; the players all but sheep. The wolves exploit the sheeps egoistically, and when the sheeps are no longer profitable, the wolves belch 'em. A shepherd is manager of sheeps. Hence, German Shepherd. :)

[Anti-Polar Bear]

A'rite. Just finished dumping my "dinner". (Work graveyard shift so AM is my PM.) Gonna hit the showers, than watch Motherless New York. Look for my take in the Ismael Flicks thread.

Bye.

[pbmax]

FA WR on short deal (south of Graham's deal hopefully).

Draft at least one in Rounds 2-3. Talent might not fall that far and they could be tempted to trade up. Don't. Go BPA for rest of draft.

Rehire Highsmith. Let him find one monster, underexposed WR talent (injury, position switch). Draft them in seventh or priority UDFA. Pay through the nose to get them if need be. This guy should have played less WR in college than Sam Shields played DB.

Three of first four picks: ILB (preferred first round move), OT (unless Veldheer wants to stick around), tweeter safety unless BPA lights go off. Then dump DB idea.

Should you choose to accept this assignment, I take no ownership of this idea if the actual talent isn't there at the actual spot. Like a lot of Civil War generals, be governed by circumstances.