Mason Crosby Signs New Deal

[pbmax]

Packer Wire
Mason Crosby's new deal with Packers worth $12.9M over 3 years

[red]

Lot of money for a kicker

[call_me_ishmael]

I don't have a strong opinion either way but it would take a lot to convince me they wouldn't be better served having a minimum contract kicker and then an extra 3.5-4M for going towards additional depth on OL/DL in the form of a cap casualty or second tier one year older vet signing.

[Joemailman]

4.3 million per year makes him the 3rd highest paid kicker, but not much more than the 10th highest paid kicker. Paying one of the best kickers 2% of your salary cap is fine imo.

[Patler]

The Bears have gone through 6 kickers in four years since deciding it was time to move on from Robbie Gould. Kickers have cost them games, including a playoff game, missing easily makeable kicks.

The Vikings thought they hit a homerun drafting Blair Walsh to replace Ryan Longwell, who was at the end of his long career. Walsh was everything they could have hoped for in 2012, and as a rookie was cheap. In 2014, they weren't so sure he was the answer anymore. In 2016 they let him go, and his once promising career as an NFL kicker was done. They've used 4 kickers in 3 1/2 years since releasing Walsh.

Lessons to be learned:
If you have a reliable kicker who looks like he still has some years left in him, keep him.
Finding a replacement isn't always easy (Bears)
Even when you think you have a replacement initially, longevity may not be there (Vikings).

In 2017, the Packers thought they could save money and perhaps even do better than the reliable, consistent but not dominating Tim Masthay at punter. Since then, Vogel and Scott have given them some higher highs, but also much lower lows than Masthay did, including some real stinkers at critical times. Scott needs to prove himself in 2020.

$4M isn't a lot of money in the NFL salary world. I'm glad they signed Crosby.

[George Cumby]

Good to hear.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

I love how whatever Patler shits, it's fact, and nobody - other than moi, of course - dares to debunk him.

Masthay was, in fact, Aaron Jones before anyone had ever heard of Aaron Jones: the mother of inconsistency. Perhaps that inconsistency played a role in Masthay's release. Perhaps Todd was just incompetent - ain't like Todd had never cut a bona fide NFL punter for a one and done abomination before. Vogel wasn't Masthay's successor. Workout warrior Jake Schum was - dude was such a great punter, he was one and done. In a league in which $4M ain't alotta frogskins, cutting a "reliable, consistent but not dominating" punter for an unproven workout warrior just to save $675 K is apparently wise.

Jon Ryan was cut by Todd in, what, 2008? It's 2020, and the Packers are still looking for Ryan's replacement.

Guttekusnt shoulda signed Cumby's cousin, Younghoo Koo, when the dude was grinding on the streets of Baltimore. Koo made 89% of his fg attempts last season. Crosby, 92%. Coulda gotten Koo for the minimum and only a 3% drop off.

https://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/32792/packers-swap-punters-claim-bucs-jacob-schum-cut-tim-masthay


Masthay won the Packers’ punting job in 2010...was inconsistent...Masthay was in the final season of a four-year, $5.465 million contract. He would have made $1.2 million...The Packers inherit Schum’s salary of $525,000.

[Zool]

I can't actually follow what you're trying to say. Put down the flesh light and type with 2 hands.

[red]

If that’s the going rate for a good kicker, then it’s a good signing

He’s one of the better ones in the nfl and pretty dependable after that one bad year he had, where fat dickhead had him trying like 2-55 yarders per game

[Anti-Polar Bear]

I can't actually follow what you're trying to say. Put down the flesh light and type with 2 hands.

Allow me to rephrase, since you clearly ain't as smart as Tex:

According to Patler, Masthay was a consistent punter. Why the fuck would Todd cut a consistent punter for an unproven commodity (Schum) just to save 675 K? Either Todd was incompetent, or Masthay was inconsistent. More likely, both - Todd once cut Ryan for Frost, after all; Masthay was indeed inconsistent.

Aaron Jones is the mother of inconsistency. Rarely ever produce magnificent games back to back. Scores 4 TDs in a game one week; rushes for 30 yards and poops out the rock the next. Aaron, eloquent bro of Moses one week; Erin, lumpenproletarian of Baltimore the next.

[run pMc]

Maybe compared to Scott et al Masthay was consistent LOL. FWIW, I didn't like how they dumped Masthay for Schum. I thought it was a bad move, and Vogel was let go at his request when they drafted Scott and he saw the writing on the wall.
Was Jon Ryan a free agent when he went to Seattle? You could also blame Wolf for letting Hentrich go. ;)

All the same, I think if you have a reliable kicker and you think he's got some tread on the tires you keep him. It's not a huge part of your cap, especially in proportion to the importance of plays kickers are part of (KO, PA, FG).

I think you can get away with a pedestrian punter more easily than a pedestrian kicker. (Ideally you don't want either.)

I think it's a good signing. A bit front loaded I believe, which is team-smart for an aging kicker.

[Zool]

Allow me to rephrase, since you clearly ain't as smart as Tex:

According to Patler, Masthay was a consistent punter. Why the fuck would Todd cut a consistent punter for an unproven commodity (Schum) just to save 675 K? Either Todd was incompetent, or Masthay was inconsistent. More likely, both - Todd once cut Ryan for Frost, after all; Masthay was indeed inconsistent.

Aaron Jones is the mother of inconsistency. Rarely ever produce magnificent games back to back. Scores 4 TDs in a game one week; rushes for 30 yards and poops out the rock the next. Aaron, eloquent bro of Moses one week; Erin, lumpenproletarian of Baltimore the next.

Do you have any evidence to back this up? (he said knowing the answer). Here I'll let you do some research.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MastTi99.htm

I'll even get you going. Masthay's best year was 45.6 avg. His worst was 43.5. Now start going game by game while taking weather into account and show me his inconsistency. Maybe you weren't a fan of his holding ability? How about the year he had 36 kick-offs. Is that where you see the inconsistency?

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Do you have any evidence to back this up? (he said knowing the answer). Here I'll let you do some research.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MastTi99.htm

I'll even get you going. Masthay's best year was 45.6 avg. His worst was 43.5. Now start going game by game while taking weather into account and show me his inconsistency. Maybe you weren't a fan of his holding ability? How about the year he had 36 kick-offs. Is that where you see the inconsistency?

If Demovsky said Masthay was inconsistent, then Masthay was inconsistent.

Gross punting averages are misleading. In a game, an inconsistent punter could hit a 60 yarder, 50 yarder, 40 yarder and an extraordinary 20 yard poop punt, and still end up with a nice gross average. Meanwhile the hotshot guy grossing 30 yard a pop while pinning the rock inside the 10 each time should be cut, right?

Masthay wasn't a good punter. Too inconsistent.

[Bretsky]

Allow me to rephrase, since you clearly ain't as smart as Tex:



Aaron Jones is the mother of inconsistency. Rarely ever produce magnificent games back to back. Scores 4 TDs in a game one week; rushes for 30 yards and poops out the rock the next. Aaron, eloquent bro of Moses one week; Erin, lumpenproletarian of Baltimore the next.


When you post bullshit like this as blatant facts you lose all future credibility.

This is ludicrous

[Bretsky]

If Crosby continues to be consistent, and we stay a winner, money well spent. I'm a fan

[pbmax]

Just quote more


However, he was inconsistent, especially late in the season. In the playoff loss at Arizona, Masthay posted a net average of just 32.8 yards.

In three preseason games this year, Masthay averaged 42.8 yards (31.6 net) on nine punts.

Was it Tim or coverage? Tune in later this week when Patler fills in the blanks.

[texaspackerbacker]

Allow me to rephrase, since you clearly ain't as smart as Tex:

According to Patler, Masthay was a consistent punter. Why the fuck would Todd cut a consistent punter for an unproven commodity (Schum) just to save 675 K? Either Todd was incompetent, or Masthay was inconsistent. More likely, both - Todd once cut Ryan for Frost, after all; Masthay was indeed inconsistent.

Aaron Jones is the mother of inconsistency. Rarely ever produce magnificent games back to back. Scores 4 TDs in a game one week; rushes for 30 yards and poops out the rock the next. Aaron, eloquent bro of Moses one week; Erin, lumpenproletarian of Baltimore the next.

hahahahaha You got a way with words - you should be a damn songwriter or something.

Not that this thread is about Aaron Jones, but I'm pretty satisfied with his consistency. I prefer to blame the O Line for his ups and downs, especially the downs.

I'm kinda on the fence about Crosby. I know I've talked against re-signing him for significant money and in favor of just going with Mr. X, given the fact that 25 or 30 Mr. X's graduate from major colleges alone every year, a lot of them very decent kickers. The way I see it, Crosby rose to the level of borderline good last season after a really shaky previous year. For the money he's gonna be paid, he damn well better not revert. In fact, even at the age he is, he better take his game up a notch or two. That's not unheard of for old kickers.

Bottom line, now that we've got him back, I'm not gonna complain unless or until he makes complaining obvious.

[Zool]

If Demovsky said Masthay was inconsistent, then Masthay was inconsistent.

Got it.

[call_me_ishmael]

In 2017, the Packers thought they could save money and perhaps even do better than the reliable, consistent but not dominating Tim Masthay at punter. Since then, Vogel and Scott have given them some higher highs, but also much lower lows than Masthay did, including some real stinkers at critical times. Scott needs to prove himself in 2020.

To this day, I have no idea why they moved on from Masthay. I always thought he was a pretty darn good punter.

[run pMc]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2020/02/22/green-bay-packers-retain-stability-kicking-game-re-signing-mason-crosby/4844438002/

Crosby’s wife, Molly, had surgery in the summer to treat a tumor and blood clot and his sister-in-law, Brittany, died from ovarian cancer Nov. 29 at age 30.
Crosby maintained his focus and had one of the best seasons of his career, connecting on 22 of 24 field-goal attempts (91.7%), which ranked fifth in the NFL. It was the highest field goal percentage for a Packers kicker since Ryan Longwell ranked No. 4 in 2003.
Not only did he excel kicking field goals, he set a career-high with a touchback percentage of 62.0%.

He was named a first alternate for the Pro Bowl

It's funny to me how people think he's easily replaced when it would be considered crazy to let a top 5 player any other position walk in FA, especially when you could afford him and you have no obvious replacement on the roster. He hit several clutch kicks last year (game winners vs. DET) and contending teams must have a good kicker.

[call_me_ishmael]

^ Kickers are one of the few positions where the stats in isolation largely speak for themselves. I think you can get 90% of the production for 20% of the price. BUT you might miss a clutch kick that changes your season. It's a gamble for sure.

[Cheesehead Craig]

^ Kickers are one of the few positions where the stats in isolation largely speak for themselves. I think you can get 90% of the production for 20% of the price. BUT you might miss a clutch kick that changes your season. It's a gamble for sure.

You really can't. Unless you get a Dan Bailey who was in a "prove it" contract year. But then you're taking a chance on someone who had some issues. But that was a one year deal and now the Vikes are going to pay for him if they want to keep him. Or you're banking on a rookie. In a win now NFL, kicking could cost a HC his job.

[call_me_ishmael]

You really can't. Unless you get a Dan Bailey who was in a "prove it" contract year. But then you're taking a chance on someone who had some issues. But that was a one year deal and now the Vikes are going to pay for him if they want to keep him. Or you're banking on a rookie. In a win now NFL, kicking could cost a HC his job.

The stats don't lie. I did a break down in a different thread where something like 28 of the kickers made >= 80% and maybe like 7 made >= 90% IIRC. Rookie kickers would do just fine in the vast majority of cases but where it gets a little iffy is if the game is on the line and you REALLY need the kick. I didn't research specific scenarios to see how they bare out in game winning attempts, etc so I can't speak to that beyond anecdotal which is why I consider it a risk.

The market is set by supply and demand so if every team starting to try my "use a rookie contract kicker" approach it'd be harder to find a good one, that is a caveat for sure. But if you're the only team zigging when other teams are zagging, I think you could get a bargain at the kicker spot.

[Joemailman]

One thing the stats won't show is that Crosby probably kicks in more bad weather games than any kicker in the NFL. If you're kicking for the Vikings or Lions you're kicking in domes at least 9 games. In Green Bay the bad weather starts in November and there's usually a late season game in Chicago.

The other thing the stats won't show is that having a kicker who doesn't inspire confidence can force the head coach into decisions he doesn't want. An unreliable kicker in certain situations can force a coach to punt or go for it on 4th and long rather than kicking the field goal.

[call_me_ishmael]

Absolutely Joe. I 100% agree and I didn't factor that in at all. The stats don't tell the whole story so it is for sure a risk. The more I think about it, given where this team wants to be, I guess I'd be less comfortable with it.

[run pMc]

The stats don't lie. I did a break down in a different thread where something like 28 of the kickers made >= 80% and maybe like 7 made >= 90% IIRC. Rookie kickers would do just fine in the vast majority of cases but where it gets a little iffy is if the game is on the line and you REALLY need the kick. I didn't research specific scenarios to see how they bare out in game winning attempts, etc so I can't speak to that beyond anecdotal which is why I consider it a risk.

The market is set by supply and demand so if every team starting to try my "use a rookie contract kicker" approach it'd be harder to find a good one, that is a caveat for sure. But if you're the only team zigging when other teams are zagging, I think you could get a bargain at the kicker spot.

I understand what you're saying, but I think in practice it hasn't worked out well for many teams -- Minnesota, Chicago, Tampa, Dallas, Jets... lots of teams have cycled thru kickers and finding a reliable, consistent one is harder than it seems. I think if it were that simple, teams would be doing it. It's not like they don't pinch pennies on ST by dumping veteran depth for young players now. Many teams bring in rookie kickers to push the vet guy (and give his leg some rest), and most of the time the vet wins.

Consider: Vikings gave up a R5 midseason for Kaare Vedvik and then cut him, with Dan Bailey on the roster (who replaced Daniel Carlson, who replaced Kai Forbath, who replaced Blair Walsh in successive seasons).
Chicago was a laughingstock with their kicking derby last year, and Eddy Piniero is not exactly trustworthy (3-7 from 40-49, 2-2 from 50, Nagy didn't give him a lot of long kicks).

There are definitely rookie kickers with stronger legs than Crosby has, but given his experience kicking in cold-weather stadiums like GB, CHI, PHI, NY he's worth the pricetag. Dean Lowry makes more money.

[Cheesehead Craig]

The stats don't lie. I did a break down in a different thread where something like 28 of the kickers made >= 80% and maybe like 7 made >= 90% IIRC. Rookie kickers would do just fine in the vast majority of cases but where it gets a little iffy is if the game is on the line and you REALLY need the kick. I didn't research specific scenarios to see how they bare out in game winning attempts, etc so I can't speak to that beyond anecdotal which is why I consider it a risk.

The market is set by supply and demand so if every team starting to try my "use a rookie contract kicker" approach it'd be harder to find a good one, that is a caveat for sure. But if you're the only team zigging when other teams are zagging, I think you could get a bargain at the kicker spot.

You pretty much get what you pay for. You wanna pay bargain basement dollars (550- 600k), you get kickers who make about 75% of their FGs. You also get the revolving door that was TN where they went through 5 kickers last year, and they lost 3 games directly due to their kicking woes. Top kickers make over 85% of their kicks and cost on average 3M/yr.

[Bretsky]

BOTTOM LINE IMO

If you are a shit team, I'd go bargain basement on the kicker and look on the cheaps in hopes of finding a future gem
BUT
If you are a legit contender, you can NOT let your guy kick your opportunity to the shitter when am important game on the line. We need the real deal. We have that so no need to mess around.

[Cheesehead Craig]

BOTTOM LINE IMO

If you are a shit team, I'd go bargain basement on the kicker and look on the cheaps in hopes of finding a future gem
BUT
If you are a legit contender, you can NOT let your guy kick your opportunity to the shitter when am important game on the line. We need the real deal. We have that so no need to mess around.

Bingo

[Joemailman]

BOTTOM LINE IMO

If you are a shit team, I'd go bargain basement on the kicker and look on the cheaps in hopes of finding a future gem
BUT
If you are a legit contender, you can NOT let your guy kick your opportunity to the shitter when am important game on the line. We need the real deal. We have that so no need to mess around.

Sort of like 2007, when the Packers, coming off 2 down seasons, went with a rookie kicker named Mason Crosby?

[run pMc]

Sort of like 2007, when the Packers, coming off 2 down seasons, went with a rookie kicker named Mason Crosby?

Bingo. :)

(I would not be surprised if they need to replace him the last year of his contract. I don't trust he'll be as strong/accurate in cold-weather winds at age 38/39.)

[pbmax]

To this day, I have no idea why they moved on from Masthay. I always thought he was a pretty darn good punter.

Masthay solved a big problem with punting and the Packers screwed it up with his replacement (repeat of letting Ryan go).

But while Masthay was more consistent than the dregs that came before and immediately after him, he had a mediocre leg. He also had had a string of bad games (as Demovsky points out). So unlike Crosby, Masthay was an average physical talent and hit a bad patch, then your job is not safe.

Masthay's best work coincided with the best Packers punt coverage numbers of the decade. Being dependable probably helped, but Masthay lived on those net numbers and when they fell, he was in trouble. Packers just made another bad decision on who to sign.

Overall Patler is probably right, keeping him and helping him work through the bad patch probably is the better play. Then you can do a proper search for a replacement rather than just scan the waiver wire. I suspect someone at 1265 wanted Shrum like what's his name liked Derrick Frost.

[pbmax]

The stats don't lie. I did a break down in a different thread where something like 28 of the kickers made >= 80% and maybe like 7 made >= 90% IIRC. Rookie kickers would do just fine in the vast majority of cases but where it gets a little iffy is if the game is on the line and you REALLY need the kick. I didn't research specific scenarios to see how they bare out in game winning attempts, etc so I can't speak to that beyond anecdotal which is why I consider it a risk..

The stats do lie here because if the coach doesn't trust you to save his job, then that kicker is hitting the street. In a perfect world where coaches better understood probability*, more young kickers would get a longer tenure with their first team.

But I doubt Mike Zimmer consulted your post before he dumped Walsh.

The bottom line is that kickers tend NOT to make it with their first team in a good number of cases.


*Actually, that will probably never happen as owners make hiring and firing coach decisions without understanding it. Its all about the press conference.

[pbmax]

Rob Demovsky @RobDemovsky
Since 2007, no one other than Mason Crosby has place-kicked for the Packers. In that same span, only 2 teams have used fewer than 5 kickers: Tennessee (4) and Indianapolis (3) while 20 teams have used more than 5 kickers, led by the Buccaneers (12).

[mraynrand]

Sort of like 2007, when the Packers, coming off 2 down seasons, went with a rookie kicker named Mason Crosby?

Different scenario coming off the 2006 season with Dave Rayner, who ended up maybe with only 2X the attempts he had in 2006 the rest of his career. So the Packers went with stability and track record. If they had a Rayner instead of Mason, I'm sure they would look to draft or RFA. Which they will do once Mason's contract or leg runs out, whichever comes first.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2020/02/22/green-bay-packers-retain-stability-kicking-game-re-signing-mason-crosby/4844438002/


It's funny to me how people think he's easily replaced when it would be considered crazy to let a top 5 player any other position walk in FA, especially when you could afford him and you have no obvious replacement on the roster. He hit several clutch kicks last year (game winners vs. DET) and contending teams must have a good kicker.

In 2018, Snowman missed something like 20 fgs at Detroit - indoor! And his miss against Zona pretty much terminated McCarthy. Crosby ain't nothing but a career 80% kicker. Moneyball, which is backed by math, says the Packers would be better off with Crumby's cuz than with Crosby.

[gbgary]

Lot of money for a kicker

3rd highest paid. he's good. don't want to take a step back in that dept (any dept for that matter). his cap hit for 2020 is $4m per tom silverstein.

[mraynrand]

In 2018, Snowman missed something like 20 fgs at Detroit - indoor! And his miss against Zona pretty much terminated McCarthy.

Makes you wonder if he was paid off by Gute to make sure Stubby got canned. Insurance policy!

[run pMc]

Makes you wonder if he was paid off by Gute to make sure Stubby got canned. Insurance policy!

Bingo.

[QBME]

Good for Mason.
Hard worker.
Great team mate.
Knows how to kick in the cold.
Might just be the player to get it done.