Predict their 2020 stat lines (Gary first)

[RashanGary]

I'll start with Gary. Even if everyone stays healthy he should see more playing time with Fackrell gone .

Shoulder 100%
Good off-season of work
2nd year in defense
Focused on football not the draft

Signs point up.


40 tackles
8 TFL
8 sacks
40 pressures

R-E-L-A-X

He's 22 years old! New position, new team, new techniques. It'll come together!

[run pMc]

I think your numbers are extremely optimistic. Maybe by Year 3 he approximates some of those numbers.

For context, these were Gary's 2019 numbers: 21 Tkl (13 Solo), 3 TFL, 2 Sk, 7.5 pressures.

In the spirit of the original post, I'll play along and predict 31Tkl (18 Solo), 5 TFL, 3.5 Sk, 12 pressures

The increase in production would come from a combination of developing as a player and an increase in snaps.
Asking a raw athlete like Gary to quadruple his sack/pressure numbers is very ambitious unless one of the Smiths is hurt and Pettine gets very creative in scheming him. Gary never even had 8 sacks in a college season.

[RashanGary]

I think your numbers are extremely optimistic. Maybe by Year 3 he approximates some of those numbers.

For context, these were Gary's 2019 numbers: 21 Tkl (13 Solo), 3 TFL, 2 Sk, 7.5 pressures.

In the spirit of the original post, I'll play along and predict 31Tkl (18 Solo), 5 TFL, 3.5 Sk, 12 pressures

The increase in production would come from a combination of developing as a player and an increase in snaps.
Asking a raw athlete like Gary to quadruple his sack/pressure numbers is very ambitious unless one of the Smiths is hurt and Pettine gets very creative in scheming him. Gary never even had 8 sacks in a college season.

Neither did JJ Watt or Frank Clark. But here we are

[Zool]

ASRH, 4 sacks, 20 pressures. If Frackle is back, he will match his rookie numbers.

[RashanGary]

ASRH, 4 sacks, 20 pressures. If Frackle is back, he will match his rookie numbers.

4 sacks will be a disappointment.

[Zool]

4 sacks will be a disappointment.

He's going to play about 20% of the snaps unless a Smith gets hurt. That would be a good number.

[Joemailman]

It's unlikely Packers will remain as healthy in 2020 as they were in 2019, so a Smith could lose some time. Besides, they might be better at the end of the season if their snap counts are reduced some. Plus, Holy Fackrell probably won't be back.

40 tackles, 25 solo, 7 sacks, 10 TFL

[run pMc]

Neither did JJ Watt or Frank Clark. But here we are

I think a JJ Watt like jump would be a shock -- JJ Watt was a much better player than Gary in college, and that was switching from a TE to DL after transferring from CMU to WI. Frank Clark might be a better comparison -- same school, similar production (Clark's was better). Interesting (to me) that Clark has gone from a LB to a DE, where Gary is doing the opposite. I worry the "experts" might be right in believing Gary is best as a 4-3 DE or inside rusher on 3rd downs...in which case he's likely miscast for his skill set.

I'm just curious if anyone has seen something up to now in Gary to believe he will become a Frank Clark. I ask that as a serious question -- I haven't seen enough of Gary to really say.
I would be happy if Gary made any significant leap, and I'd be especially happy to be wrong for doubting it will be a Watt/Clark jump.

[RashanGary]

It VERY probably won't be anything like Watt.

But it will probably be better than 4 sacks IMOl

[Joemailman]

Wonder if teams look at RAS scores.

https://relativeathleticscores.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/rashan-gary-ras-19373.png

[Bretsky]

I'm gong to shit on some of the kool aide in here


31 tackles,
5 sacks,
7 TFL

And he's going to see a lot of snaps because Fackrell is going to be gone and we'll have some injuries and the coaches push him onto the filed with the same blind faith the GM had that his athleticism will lead to production

The season is going to reinforce that drafting Rashan Gary was the mother-load of fucks ups at pick number 12, a slot high enough for a reasonable fan to expect IMMEDIATE production.

After his contract is up we'll see Brian Burns and Jeffrey Simmons already making Pro Bowls while we don't extend Gary because we finally figured out you don't draft based on the combine, you draft for the production and film. And like Michigan, he's an underachiever in Green Bay

[RashanGary]

5 sacks isn't that bad for a young second year guy. 8-10 is solid production from a guy in his prime.

But yeah, it didn't start as well as I had expected or hoped.

[RashanGary]

His length, size, explosion and speed, combined with his work ethic and "want to" make him a good bet to be better in his second year at a new position in a new scheme.

[Bretsky]

His length, size, explosion and speed, combined with his work ethic and "want to" make him a good bet to be better in his second year at a new position in a new scheme.

Maybe I"m blind, but I haven't heard anything, good or bad, on his work ethic. But I agree he'll be better. I could care less about a new scheme; players still produce if they are players across the NFL as rookies. Everybody has a new scheme when they are rookies. he's been a total disappointment so far.

[red]

It VERY probably won't be anything like Watt.

But it will probably be better than 4 sacks IMOl

The most he ever had in college was 5.5 in a season

As the main pass rusher

Hard to see him getting more then that in the pros

Hell, he only had 3.5 his last year in college

How the hell was he a top 10 pick?

[RashanGary]

Maybe I"m blind, but I haven't heard anything, good or bad, on his work ethic. But I agree he'll be better. I could care less about a new scheme; players still produce if they are players across the NFL as rookies. Everybody has a new scheme when they are rookies. he's been a total disappointment so far.

His twitter feed and the RG sports twitter feed shows his workouts and food and stuff. The dude is a weird millennial posting on social media and trying to build a brand or whatever, but he looks like a grinder. He was back in the lab grinding as soon as the season was over. Posts all sorts of things about his body being his business and how hard hes willing to grind. The kid wants it man!/

[pbmax]

I have no idea how that agility score or 3 cone compares to others, but it perhaps capture my worry about Gary pretty accurately.

He never seems close to taking a step, turn or leap and making a play on the QB or ball. He is always chasing it around long, looping curves. If that makes any sense.

He chases the QB like I drive without navigation. Looping around, circling, until I recognize something and then make the correct turn to get there.

[red]

I have no idea how that agility score or 3 cone compares to others, but it perhaps capture my worry about Gary pretty accurately.

He never seems close to taking a step, turn or leap and making a play on the QB or ball. He is always chasing it around long, looping curves. If that makes any sense.

He chases the QB like I drive without navigation. Looping around, circling, until I recognize something and then make the correct turn to get there.

then thats actually an improvement for him

in college, he would loop around a play, and then quit

if a guy got a step on him, he would pull up and start jogging

if a ball carrier was getting gang tackled, he would pull up and watch his teamates bring down the guy

so if he is actually playing hard until the whistle, then that his a huge improvement from him

[run pMc]

I have no idea how that agility score or 3 cone compares to others, but it perhaps capture my worry about Gary pretty accurately.

He never seems close to taking a step, turn or leap and making a play on the QB or ball. He is always chasing it around long, looping curves. If that makes any sense.

He chases the QB like I drive without navigation. Looping around, circling, until I recognize something and then make the correct turn to get there.

It depends on whether you're comparing him to DE's or OLB's. His 3 cone and SS are good compared to other DE's, but meh as an OLB. Being able to do the things he can do at 270+ pounds is pretty impressive, but IIRC he wasn't known for being especially bendy or able to really turn tightly around the corner on a tackle in college, which probably explains the long curves or reliance on a bull rush. He might be able to improve some of that flexibility with training, but I think he'll always have some of that stiffness in his pass rush.

[pbmax]

It depends on whether you're comparing him to DE's or OLB's. His 3 cone and SS are good compared to other DE's, but meh as an OLB. Being able to do the things he can do at 270+ pounds is pretty impressive, but IIRC he wasn't known for being especially bendy or able to really turn tightly around the corner on a tackle in college, which probably explains the long curves or reliance on a bull rush. He might be able to improve some of that flexibility with training, but I think he'll always have some of that stiffness in his pass rush.

It could be confusion because he could chose to play like one or the other. He is fast enough to get around the corner but he never plants his foot and turns. He is almost reliant on the QB or Tackle to get misaligned or take a false step.

On a bull rush, he doesn't have the second move or counter to step inside or around the Tackle and be an immediate threat.

[run pMc]

It could be confusion because he could chose to play like one or the other. He is fast enough to get around the corner but he never plants his foot and turns. He is almost reliant on the QB or Tackle to get misaligned or take a false step.

On a bull rush, he doesn't have the second move or counter to step inside or around the Tackle and be an immediate threat.

A 1.61 10 yd. split is lightning fast at his size, and there were several snaps where you could see he was first off the line.
I think being in Year 2 with pro coaching and hopefully his shoulder healing will help him. Getting more pass rush moves/counters would make a big difference too -- he's so athletic he hasn't had to develop technique, and that can take time.

[pbmax]

Getting more pass rush moves/counters would make a big difference too -- he's so athletic he hasn't had to develop technique, and that can take time.

My concern with his developing is that he hasn't had great production in any one year. So its not like it has not been addressed before. I wonder how much more improvement to expect.

[run pMc]

My concern with his developing is that he hasn't had great production in any one year. So its not like it has not been addressed before. I wonder how much more improvement to expect.

Agree. The lack of production in college is not a promising predictor for his pro career. (alliteration!) I don't know if/how much the Harbaugh-genius-defense (sarcasm!) did anything to scheme single block looks, stunts, etc. to allow Gary to take advantage of weak links on a college OL. My guess is they prioritized those for Winovich and Bush at Gary's expense (i.e., used him as the double/triple team eater), but when you have a physical marvel like him, how do you not try to unleash him? Only thing I can think is they tried and it didn't work, or the coaches there stink.

All that negativity aside, there certainly are tools and natural gifts for the Pettine thinktank to work with. I'm not overly optimistic Gary will be the type of player to consistently get 7-8 sacks a season, and certainly not with the Smiths ahead of him, but I think he can provide some pressure and set an edge vs. the run... basically, be a healthy Nick Perry. He will absorb some of Fackrell's snaps this year, so he'll get more chances and that should help his numbers. Remains to be seen if they will draft a player or Greg Roberts/Randy Ramsey becomes the 4th OLB.

McGinn's comparison to Reggie Gilbert is a little unfair IMO. (Look in the Garbage can.) Reggie had a few years to transition over to OLB, and he's no rookie. If Gary is still seeing 20% of the snaps in Year 3 and netting 2-3 sacks then (sadly) it will be a more fair comp.
Ultimately I think Rashan Gary becomes the new version of A J Hawk -- an adequate player who becomes the online whipping boy for some because he was overdrafted.

Hey, it's not like he's Jamal Reynolds. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReynJa20.htm

[RashanGary]

I see all sides to this as valid.

Still hoping for the best. When i add to my guitar toolbox, it takes me a little bit to become fluid and natural and truly effective. I hope Gary ends up really perfecting a few techniques. His body gives him a huge advantage.

[Bretsky]

A 1.61 10 yd. split is lightning fast at his size, and there were several snaps where you could see he was first off the line.
I think being in Year 2 with pro coaching and hopefully his shoulder healing will help him. Getting more pass rush moves/counters would make a big difference too -- he's so athletic he hasn't had to develop technique, and that can take time.


We're going on year 6 seeing the Michigan coached tried for four years as well

[Bretsky]

I see all sides to this as valid.

Still hoping for the best. When i add to my guitar toolbox, it takes me a little bit to become fluid and natural and truly effective. I hope Gary ends up really perfecting a few techniques. His body gives him a huge advantage.



You didn't change your name to Justin Harrell until you know he was an epic failure. You were much faster to cjhange your name to Rashan Gary. Is this a sign of your real feelings as opposed to the fluffies :) ??

[pbmax]

You didn't change your name to Justin Harrell until you know he was an epic failure. You were much faster to cjhange your name to Rashan Gary. Is this a sign of your real feelings as opposed to the fluffies :) ??

Don't forget he was Nick Collins and Greg Jennings.

[Deputy Nutz]

Why do certain people on this forum want to prove the failure of young Packers? Gary was question mark of a pick considering his size. He seemed to be a prototypical 5 tech end in a 4-3 defense, and the Packers drafted him to play outside linebacker. Gary's college film was anything but spectacular. He did some good things at Michigan but overall I don't think the guy really wanted the attention and the pressure of being the #1 recruit in the country. He was physically ready to play right away, but probably could have used a redshirt year.

Optimistically I think Gary will get between 5--7 sacks, he will be predominantly a pass rusher.

[RashanGary]

The next time I change my name it's gonna be "bigbadbuttstretcher" and I'm gonna use the kgb sodomization of grossman picture as my avatar.

I'm "this fucking close" to going on a radagast "circus bafoon" rant!

You bunch of bullies :lol:

[run pMc]

The next time I change my name it's gonna be "bigbadbuttstretcher" and I'm gonna use the kgb sodomization of grossman picture as my avatar.

I'm "this fucking close" to going on a radagast "circus bafoon" rant!

You bunch of bullies :lol:

It's all good RG... appreciate your optimism. For the record, I don't think Gary will be a bust. I'm just skeptical he'll be a Pro Bowler.

The KGB avatar is a funny choice.

[RashanGary]

I know man. I laughed my ass off at some of the comebacks and shit talk people give me. I've been here a long time. Long enough to be able to laugh and not take shit too seriously

[Bretsky]

Don't forget he was Nick Collins and Greg Jennings.


Hmmmm; so he went from Successes to Failures :))))

[Bretsky]

I know man. I laughed my ass off at some of the comebacks and shit talk people give me. I've been here a long time. Long enough to be able to laugh and not take shit too seriously



Sounds like we should just all caramel it out at the Oval Office and declare somebody a winner.....lol

[RashanGary]

Sounds like we should just all caramel it out at the Oval Office and declare somebody a winner.....lol

Yep. Sounds like!

[mraynrand]

He's going to play about 20% of the snaps unless a Smith gets hurt. That would be a good number.

I would guess more than 20%. Will be mixed in on the line/as part of the 3 OLB look.

[Zool]

I would guess more than 20%. Will be mixed in on the line/as part of the 3 OLB look.

You think Frackle is gone, or he's back and Gary moves ahead of him?

[mraynrand]

You think Frackle is gone, or he's back and Gary moves ahead of him?

Even if he stays, he'll take more of Frackle's snaps and I think they'll put him along the D line more. A little more weight/strength and he should take away snaps from anyone else they throw along the line except Clark, unless they pick up a beast in FA/draft, even if he's mostly pass rushing.

[texaspackerbacker]

I wish they'd give Fackrell a shot at ILB.

[pbmax]

I wish they'd give Fackrell a shot at ILB.

Fackrell = Swiss Army Knife

Swakrell.

[Zool]

Fackrell got 40% last year, Gary got 25%. I didn't think Gary would be that high. Assuming Crackle signs somewhere else, and Gary isn't beaten out by a draft pick, he should hit that 40% mark. I'm just not thrilled after last year. I'll be happy if he proves me wrong, just got a bad feeling.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2019-snap-counts.htm

[RashanGary]

Without Fackrell I expect 50% or more.

[run pMc]

Fackrell's not coming back. Word is he wants to sign elsewhere so he can compete for starting snaps. He's not going to start ahead of the Smiths, and clearly the team is going to want Gary to produce. Also, he'll turn 29 in November... there's not a lot of upside left with Kyler.
I could see them spending a late round pick on an OLB unless they really think either of Greg Roberts/Randy Ramsey can be a contributor. Gary playing 35-40% of the snaps sounds right about what I'd expect, APRH and Pettine doesn't modify his scheme to play 3 OLBs at once more often.

Kyler at ILB is an interesting idea, but the JSO guys poo-poo'd it saying he doesn't have the COD needed to play it. Seems like he wasn't awful when they did put him there but I don't think it was many snaps, and I could see a good OC scheming mismatches there.
Maybe Gute kicks the tires on a guy like Cameron Brown as a late round/UDFA flyer (or spends a high pick on Zach Baun) to play multiple LB spots.

[run pMc]

Part truth, part Kool-Aid: https://www.packers.com/video/rock-report-rashan-gary-rookie-rewind

I still think Gary will be something like a Nick Perry without the glass hands, and I also think they will try to use him like they do with ZaDarius (lined up all over, including as inside DL rusher).
I don't think he will be JJ Watt.

[pbmax]

COD?

[run pMc]

COD?
Change of direction.

[Deputy Nutz]

Part truth, part Kool-Aid: https://www.packers.com/video/rock-report-rashan-gary-rookie-rewind

I still think Gary will be something like a Nick Perry without the glass hands, and I also think they will try to use him like they do with ZaDarius (lined up all over, including as inside DL rusher).
I don't think he will be JJ Watt.

Gary isn't a JJ Watt but he could be a Javeon Clowney.

[run pMc]

Gary isn't a JJ Watt but he could be a Javeon Clowney.

I was actually thnking about this the other day. There are some similarities between the two, and while injuries impacted Clowney's trajectory he didn't really make the big jump until Year 3. (His sacks went 4.5 - 6 - 9.5 from Year 2-4.) I could see something similar with Gary, although Clowney was a more explosive and disruptive player in college. Maybe we could call Clowney an approximation of Gary's ceiling, which is pretty good.

College
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jadeveon-clowney-1.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/rashan-gary-1.html

NFL
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ClowJa00.htm

[call_me_ishmael]

Y'all are stealing my line. I'm the OG on the Gary-is-Clowney bandwagon. Thing is, I think Clowney has a lil' more crazy in him. I doubt Gary is ever as good as Clowney is.

[yetisnowman]

I don't remember Clowney ever being healthy and playing anything close to 10 snaps in a game.

[smuggler]

Gary

40 tackles
7.5 sacks
40% snaps

quiet, but solid season