More Banjo: Coronavirus And Sports

[call_me_ishmael]

They also shot and burned about 20,000 people with the virus so the official death number wasn't included....death by bullet is a different category. Business people I know claim that their were over 6000 bodies burned in wuhan in a 3 week period in December. Satellite images and air samples of sulfur dioxide back that claim up. One "whistleblower" claimed it was much more than 6k. Something like 1200 a day for god only knows how long. Believe nothing coming out of china.

Source? I don't doubt since China's fucking crazy, but never the less, source?

I 100% doubt the numbers coming out of China and Japan. Not a doubt in my mind they're wrong.

[texaspackerbacker]

So you believe like it's gospel if it's bad news, but something positive comes out, and you think it must be a lie ...... sounds about right for you.

[call_me_ishmael]

So you believe like it's gospel if it's bad news, but something positive comes out, and you think it must be a lie ...... sounds about right for you.

Not at all. Who doesn't want good news? Unfortunately Tex, there isn't a lot of good news here to share. Despite your optimism and your refusal to acknowledge this is a serious situation, that doesn't align with reality.

[texaspackerbacker]

The post I was responding to had no figures in it.

I was responding to the idea that slowing the spread in the general population did not help those at risk. Its not just retirement communities and nursing homes that have to be closed off. People come into contact with the compromised and elderly everywhere. Say, in your own home. You can't close a limited number of those institutions and slow the spread. You have to act widely to have an impact.

So that means the largest gatherings are the first places to stop.

You could if you only targeted the group most likely to die or have permanent lung damage - quarantine them instead of making the whole population suffer unnecessarily.

[texaspackerbacker]

Not at all. Who doesn't want good news? Unfortunately Tex, there isn't a lot of good news here to share. Despite your optimism and your refusal to acknowledge this is a serious situation, that doesn't align with reality.

Are you kidding? Just 200 something deaths compared to 4-5,000 in Italy or 12-13,000 in one year in this country from H1N1, as well as a huge recovery rate from the corona thing - obvious with the very mild symptoms of it, but still good news to everybody except the Trump haters.

[call_me_ishmael]

Are you kidding? Just 200 something deaths compared to 4-5,000 in Italy or 12-13,000 in one year in this country from H1N1, as well as a huge recovery rate from the corona thing - obvious with the very mild symptoms of it, but still good news to everybody except the Trump haters.

250 today, 500 Sunday, 1000 Tuesday, 2000 Thursday, 4000 Saturday, 8000 Monday, 16000 Wednesday, 32000 Friday, 64K Sunday, and so forth.

People *actually* quarantined here and took it seriously - thankfully - so we'll see if those numbers come to fruition. That's your curve, though.

[pbmax]

The most accurate statistical breakdown I have seen said that without drastic measures the death totals would have been 200k to 400k. Compare that to the annual flu which is 15k to 30k and you see the difference. Part of that is its more deadly and part of that is that its more easily transmissible. The entirely most conservative estimate with standard warnings and high alert measures only came it at about 90k.

Where did you get the numbers Bobble? Would like to read them.

[pbmax]

260 dead as of this morning.

[mraynrand]

250 today, 500 Sunday, 1000 Tuesday, 2000 Thursday, 4000 Saturday, 8000 Monday, 16000 Wednesday, 32000 Friday, 64K Sunday, and so forth.

People *actually* quarantined here and took it seriously - thankfully - so we'll see if those numbers come to fruition. That's your curve, though.

You’re predicting 64,000 dead in two weeks

[mraynrand]

If you want a rational look at this, read this:

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

[Bretsky]

I feel for the elders who this is most dangerous to.

Putting me out of my misery would be a kindness at this point.

really sorry to hear you had a shit day Mad

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

If you want a rational look at this, read this:

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Nice report, but in my mind, it fails to address two things;

1) What politician, or any person, wants to make a decision that ultimately could cause additional deaths? That is why most countries are following the same pattern, i.e. what seems to be working in other countries is a good plan for us, at least until something else works better.

2) The reports of people getting reinfected may mean it is mutating, so suppressing the infection rate as quickly as possible reduces the time for mutations.

Finally, we are starting to see more and more studies on coronavirus, sometimes conflicting studies. The more we study this, the better (hopefully) we will understand how to proceed. In the meantime, isn't it better to be safe than sorry?

[call_me_ishmael]

You’re predicting 64,000 dead in two weeks

Yeah. Maybe. It seems like it takes awhile to kick the bucket with this. Maybe three. Really depends how many people stayed home and continue to social distance. It’s hard to project because states and cities took the appropriate measures that the fed is too pussy to do.

There will be two million cases in two weeks unless A) we don’t have enough tests to verify or B) people continue to socially distance themselves bigly.


The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly. Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available.

https://t.co/eUvCmFM0lU?amp=1

[pbmax]

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1241102311071645699?s=21

More and more this looks like evidence of an uncoordinated response.

And Aaron Ginn seems very sanguine about hospitals being overrun from the initial rush. UW put out a request for people to sew them masks yesterday. The Governor said that the Federal Emergency supplies contain more equipment and supplies, but it hasn’t arrived yet.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

If you want a rational look at this, read this:

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

What the fuck? You want us to trust an article on a wiki-ish site (anyone can publish on our site!), written by a Mongoloid-looking nerd asserting that the COVID-19 is a fucking computer virus?

[LEWCWA]

They also shot and burned about 20,000 people with the virus so the official death number wasn't included....death by bullet is a different category. Business people I know claim that their were over 6000 bodies burned in wuhan in a 3 week period in December. Satellite images and air samples of sulfur dioxide back that claim up. One "whistleblower" claimed it was much more than 6k. Something like 1200 a day for god only knows how long. Believe nothing coming out of china.

This I agree with "not believing any of China's numbers" The rest I have no idea about, lol. China's numbers just don't jive with the rest of the world!

[call_me_ishmael]

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1241102311071645699?s=21

More and more this looks like evidence of an uncoordinated response.

And Aaron Ginn seems very sanguine about hospitals being overrun from the initial rush. UW put out a request for people to sew them masks yesterday. The Governor said that the Federal Emergency supplies contain more equipment and supplies, but it hasn’t arrived yet.

Froedert is asking for masks as well. Hell they will even take used safety goggles. What the actual fuck!!!

[bobblehead]

Source? I don't doubt since China's fucking crazy, but never the less, source?

I 100% doubt the numbers coming out of China and Japan. Not a doubt in my mind they're wrong.

I have already told you that there is no point in sourcing anything for you. Even after I refute you with sources and documentation you are back to your same schtick a week later. And 20k shot was half joke, but I also believe the measures they took.... I wouldn't want to live in such a country.

As for the numbers burned that is all over the place. No one can source it with absolute certainty, but as I said, air samples and satellite images source out that they are lying through their teeth.

[mraynrand]

I have already told you that there is no point in sourcing anything for you. Even after I refute you with sources and documentation you are back to your same schtick a week later. And 20k shot was half joke, but I also believe the measures they took.... I wouldn't want to live in such a country.

As for the numbers burned that is all over the place. No one can source it with absolute certainty, but as I said, air samples and satellite images source out that they are lying through their teeth.

Is there a metric (chart) showing relative levels of output year over year from China. Did someone do a comparison to previous years and also previous Body burning increases in China, like when they’ve pulverized bodies in the past?

I think China has about 7 million death/year. That’s around 20,000/day. Depending on the percent bodies normally incinerated, the increase due to a few thousand corona deaths might not even appear as a blip. However, it’s possible most of their dead are processed into Soylent Green to feed the Uyghurs so maybe you could see the increase after all....

[bobblehead]

Where did you get the numbers Bobble? Would like to read them.

Wish I could, but honestly I read so many reports, articles and statistical models that I can't even find most of them again. I have read a mountain of statistical models since Mid January (I became very interested when we shut down travel from china). Many are/were flawed. Some were silly. The assumptions were that we suddenly all start hugging and kissing like Italy and had a similar death rate as they were "guessing" china really had. Some were probably written by Tex assuming no one under 60 would die. The ones I tend to believe were assuming that without the drastic measures, most people would realize this one is bad and take extra measures themselves to avoid it. They assumed a 2% death rate (our medical is top notch, but would be over run). That is about 20x more deadly than the flu (people don't really try to avoid the flu). I believe china reported a 2.7% death rate. Its also considered slightly more contagious than the flu. So we lost 22k to the flu this year. Now multiply that by the range of 1% to 3% mortality rate and you get 220k to 660k. China locked it down, but didn't treat as aggressively as we would. They also smoke at a much higher rate and have worse air quality. Puts the U.S. much closer to 200k to 400k range. That is the gist of what I have read from many sources.

[bobblehead]

Is there a metric (chart) showing relative levels of output year over year from China. Did someone do a comparison to previous years and also previous Body burning increases in China, like when they’ve pulverized bodies in the past?

I think China has about 7 million death/year. That’s around 20,000/day. Depending on the percent bodies normally incinerated, the increase due to a few thousand corona deaths might not even appear as a blip. However, it’s possible most of their dead are processed into Soylent Green to feed the Uyghurs so maybe you could see the increase after all....

I should have been clearer. We are just talking about Wuhan. Their population is 20 million I believe.

[bobblehead]

Just read that latest death rate in U.S. is standing at 1.25%. My guess is thats why we want to test everyone and their brother. The more confirmed cases, the lower the death rate.

[sharpe1027]

I have to give you that one hahahahaha. What have you got to say about the comparison to H1N1, Hong Kong Flu, Spanish Flu, regular unnamed flu, traffic accidents, murders, drug overdoses, etc.? We didn't panic and shutdown sports or schools or restaurants or much of anything else for those.

Good point. shutting down schools really cuts down on traffic accidents.

[sharpe1027]

Just read that latest death rate in U.S. is standing at 1.25%. My guess is thats why we want to test everyone and their brother. The more confirmed cases, the lower the death rate.

You want to test so you can identify the carriers and slow the spread so hospitals have a chance at treating everyone. Otherwise, the death rate will be pretty high.

[mraynrand]

You want to test so you can identify the carriers and slow the spread so hospitals have a chance at treating everyone. Otherwise, the death rate will be pretty high.

Assuming the Imperial College models are correct

[mraynrand]

I should have been clearer. We are just talking about Wuhan. Their population is 20 million I believe.

That’s still 50-100/day and they get seasonal flu too., which kills a lot more than corona, and would be spiking about the same time. So unless they’re burning the bodies in one big outdoor pile like Jawas, I’m skeptical.

[sharpe1027]

Assuming the Imperial College models are correct

Partially. Italy is providing a pretty good test case. Also, even if the models are pretty far off, we'd still run out of ICU space.

[pbmax]

I am not sure about calling corona less deadly than flu. What I have read about its virology is that its one of three of the worst viral pathogens* to outbreak this century behind only the Spanish Flu in 1918. And I am not sure deadly its the most important metric now given that hospitals are getting overrun and in some countries there have been death preventable by basic medical interventions. We'll know much more after the fact. But even with top line numbers, we aren't done yet. I read yesterday that the total dead is still doubling every 3 days, same as in the UK. And that Just Wolfers tweet I linked to yesterday indicated that cases are increasing faster and later in the timeline than other countries.

Given the more widespread testing is still being prioritized to the symptomatic, that doesn't seem to be good news. Also,

1. There is no history of immunity (there might be immunity out there but limited testing so far probably hasn't teased that out)
2. There is no vaccine.
3. There was precious little preparation (health system)
4. There was no anticipation among vulnerable

But most importantly

5. States are taking extreme precautions to lower infection rates.

And a question

6. Without widespread testing, are people dying who are not known to have had corona? Seems practical that testing would also be prioritized for the living.


* I will go look for the link, but the two others were not recent.

[mraynrand]

Partially. Italy is providing a pretty good test case. Also, even if the models are pretty far off, we'd still run out of ICU space.

Italy is a terrible test case. They had a huge Chinese population working there. They are extremely old with median age of death over 80. Of the people dying about 50% had 3 or more other illnesses, 25% had 2 and only a low percent had none. They smoke like hell over there too, and air pollution is bad. All these thing exacerbate a respiratory virus.

Corona viruses are cold viruses that attack cells in the airways. Probably a number of compromised people have increased levels of ACE2 which is associated with hypertension etc. (I confess I’ve forgotten how that works).

Anyway, it a mutated cold virus that’s more severe than the common cold but is causing specific flu symptoms and is going after the weakest in society. Unlike Other flu viruses however, it’s much much less virulent towards the very young, which was a problem With SARS, which infected 60 million and killed 12,000 - 17,000 in the US.

[mraynrand]

6. Without widespread testing, are people dying who are not known to have had corona? Seems practical that testing would also be prioritized for the living..

It will be hard to tease this out, especially since the flu incidence this year is relatively low. We’ve only had 22,000 flu deaths this year (2,000 in the past three weeks). Highly unlikely that these are due to corona because corona presents differently because it’s respiratory with dry cough. We are at tail end of flu season. So all this social distancing may reduce common flu and colds. I don’t think that’s worth an economic depression, but silver linings, silver linings.

[mraynrand]

Also, carefully read this. Italian doctors are listing every death of a patient with corona virus as a corona caused death, even if its from another illness.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

[pbmax]

Even if Italy makes a poor example, the over-running of hospitals has been seen elsewhere. So it could be repeated without non-common flu like mitigations, making the distinction between death by corona versus death by lack of treatment for other respiratory complications academic.

South Korea still is registering a mortality rate much huge than season flu. Though I have not seen an updated number reported. John Hopkins puts it at 1.1% from public data.

[mraynrand]

Even if Italy makes a poor example, the over-running of hospitals has been seen elsewhere. So it could be repeated without non-common flu like mitigations, making the distinction between death by corona versus death by lack of treatment for other respiratory complications academic.

South Korea still is registering a mortality rate much huge than season flu. Though I have not seen an updated number reported. John Hopkins puts it at 1.1% from public data.

It could be that bad. But that’s public data from skewed testing of positive cases. Compare total cases, total fatalities with total flu cases and total cases and fatalities from other outbreaks. At least that gives you a frame of reference. If this thing burns out in a month like it should, there should be far fewer total fatalities and cases than seasonal flu and other outbreaks like swine flu. Of course there’s statistical error in the numbers so we won’t know for a while yet. I’m still hoping the antibody testing (which will reveals not just active infection but people who have been exposed and ‘recovered’ - or never had it) will show a far larger exposure and we can end this madness sooner than later.

[pbmax]

Total positive cases are also skewed by the madness. I look forward to what will likely look like flu-prevention measures (vaccine, anti-virals, more comprehensive testing and data) to prevent the madness in the future.

The antibody info would, if available, fill in a lot of the gaps.

[Joemailman]

Looking more and more likely that the Summer Olympics will have to be at least postponed. Not because of the situation in Japan, but because the situation is getting worse in so many other countries. It'a already causing havoc with training and qualifying, with training facilities being closed.


The International Olympic Committee (IOC) executive board announced Sunday that the group has decided to step up scenario-planning for the 2020 Tokyo Games in reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The options that the IOC are currently considering include modifying operational plans to allow the games to begin on schedule on July 24 as well as changing the start date for the games.

The IOC says this scenario-planning will allow for the best decision in the interest of the athletes and everyone else involved.

The IOC executive board decided that cancellation of the Tokyo Games would not solve any problems or help anybody, and thus decided cancellation is not on the agenda.

The IOC points out that conditions in Japan have improved significantly, though globally there has been a dramatic increase in Covid-19 cases.

[texaspackerbacker]

There are just under 3 million deaths from all causes in the U.S. per year - that's 8 or 9,000 per day. It's safe to assume the huge majority of those are on the high age end, same as with the corona thing. Almost 300 deaths from corona now in however many weeks ...... do you think maybe a lot of those same people woulda croaked anyway? Statistics say yes. Couple that with the fact that the huge majority of positive cases don't have any symptoms at all or very mild ones, and this amounts to what I have said from the start, A BIG NOTHING - for which the shitheads making the decisions are forcing sacrifice and suffering on literally everybody.

I saw this morning that Senator Rand Paul tested positive - of course with no symptoms, and he's not exactly young. He is, however, healthy - like virtually every normal average person - like me. If I got corona - age 73 minus one month and perfectly healthy, I would not have one iota of fear over it. I don't, however, expect to get it. Our city of 130,000 hasn't had even one case. Fort Hood right next door with 50,000+ troops and their families hasn't had even one case either, and I'm told the army is doing fairly large scale testing.

[texaspackerbacker]

Looking more and more likely that the Summer Olympics will have to be at least postponed. Not because of the situation in Japan, but because the situation is getting worse in so many other countries. It'a already causing havoc with training and qualifying, with training facilities being closed.

Does it occur to you, Joe, that your words say are pretty much the opposite of what the IOC says in the link you posted?

It seems that anytime there is a threat of good sense prevailing and there is an attack of normalcy, the panic-mongers are right there to piss on it.

[Joemailman]

Does it occur to you, Joe, that your words say are pretty much the opposite of what the IOC says in the link you posted?

It seems that anytime there is a threat of good sense prevailing and there is an attack of normalcy, the panic-mongers are right there to piss on it.

The statement said one of the options they are considering is changing the start date for the games. That would be a postponement. How long of a postponement remains to be seen. A later statement said a final decision will be made in the next 4 weeks. Stay tuned.

[pbmax]

There are just under 3 million deaths from all causes in the U.S. per year - that's 8 or 9,000 per day. It's safe to assume the huge majority of those are on the high age end, same as with the corona thing. Almost 300 deaths from corona now in however many weeks ...... do you think maybe a lot of those same people woulda croaked anyway? Statistics say yes. Couple that with the fact that the huge majority of positive cases don't have any symptoms at all or very mild ones, and this amounts to what I have said from the start, A BIG NOTHING - for which the shitheads making the decisions are forcing sacrifice and suffering on literally everybody.

Tell that to the health care workers tex. That its all a big nothing. A media invention. Those 200 beds in King County on a soccer field are just a PR stunt.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/king-county-to-put-200-bed-field-hospital-on-shoreline-soccer-field-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/

You could be glad other states and cities are taking the hit to help keep you city healthy, but I kind of doubt you will see it that way.

[sharpe1027]

There are just under 3 million deaths from all causes in the U.S. per year - that's 8 or 9,000 per day. It's safe to assume the huge majority of those are on the high age end, same as with the corona thing. Almost 300 deaths from corona now in however many weeks ...... do you think maybe a lot of those same people woulda croaked anyway? Statistics say yes. Couple that with the fact that the huge majority of positive cases don't have any symptoms at all or very mild ones, and this amounts to what I have said from the start, A BIG NOTHING - for which the shitheads making the decisions are forcing sacrifice and suffering on literally everybody.

I saw this morning that Senator Rand Paul tested positive - of course with no symptoms, and he's not exactly young. He is, however, healthy - like virtually every normal average person - like me. If I got corona - age 73 minus one month and perfectly healthy, I would not have one iota of fear over it. I don't, however, expect to get it. Our city of 130,000 hasn't had even one case. Fort Hood right next door with 50,000+ troops and their families hasn't had even one case either, and I'm told the army is doing fairly large scale testing.

Why are the hospitals being overrun with critcally sick in just a few weeks? Why hasn't that happened with all the comparison illness you keep referencing?

[pbmax]

I saw this morning that Senator Rand Paul tested positive - of course with no symptoms, and he's not exactly young. He is, however, healthy - like virtually every normal average person - like me

I wonder if he will need a respirator? I hope they are available. Along with masks and gloves for his caregivers if he indeed becomes symptomatic.

[mraynrand]

Why are the hospitals being overrun with critcally sick in just a few weeks? Why hasn't that happened with all the comparison illness you keep referencing?

Which hospitals are overrun?

[sharpe1027]

Which hospitals are overrun?

Lombardi, Italy

[mraynrand]

Lombardi, Italy

I meant in the US. Thought that’s what you were referring to. I already addressed Italy.

[sharpe1027]

I meant in the US. Thought that’s what you were referring to. I already addressed Italy.

I was addressing Tex's the comparison to the flu and other illnesses. Why was this outbreak any different than the flu? Italy gets the flu every year, correct?

[sharpe1027]

I meant in the US. Thought that’s what you were referring to. I already addressed Italy.

Germany is taking cases from France due to overloaded hospitals in at least one area. When has this happened in recent history? After all, this is just a bad cold.

[Deputy Nutz]

What's crazy, is that I have spent the afternoon watching ESPN the OCHO! I have watched arm wrestling, Golden Tee Championships, the Tetris World Championships, E60's report on Monster Wrestling, Dodgeball, and now the Marble World Championships.

[pbmax]

I meant in the US. Thought that’s what you were referring to. I already addressed Italy.

Seattle is opening a field hospital.

[mraynrand]

Germany is taking cases from France due to overloaded hospitals in at least one area. When has this happened in recent history? After all, this is just a bad cold.

Actually, that’s exactly what it is - a bad cold. Which in this case has a very specific organ and demographic predilection - lungs and elderly/sick. Every infectious disease since the dawn of time has the same pattern, and always takes out the most susceptible in the growth phase. That’s why every country will show the same pattern. It will be more severe the older and more infirm the older populations are.

[pbmax]

What's crazy, is that I have spent the afternoon watching ESPN the OCHO! I have watched arm wrestling, Golden Tee Championships, the Tetris World Championships, E60's report on Monster Wrestling, Dodgeball, and now the Marble World Championships.

This was premium ESPN. You get that stuff then watch SportsCenter and your day is done after you check your messages on the answering machine with the mini-cassette.

[texaspackerbacker]

Tell that to the health care workers tex. That its all a big nothing. A media invention. Those 200 beds in King County on a soccer field are just a PR stunt.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/king-county-to-put-200-bed-field-hospital-on-shoreline-soccer-field-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/

You could be glad other states and cities are taking the hit to help keep you city healthy, but I kind of doubt you will see it that way.

The hospital crowding is a direct result of the stupid panic and the idiotic promotion of testing as some kind of solution. All testing does is get a lot of the positive cases with zero or very mild symptoms sent to hospitals unnecessarily.

My city and the huge majority of other cities are not "taking a hit" because of not having a cluster of pre-travel ban people from China like King County, Washington or from Italy and the rest of Europe like New York.

I wonder how many of those health care workers are in favor of the stupidity of widespread testing and unnecessary hospitalizing people. Several I know are not real happy about if and see testing of asymptomatic people as a bad thing.

[pbmax]

The hospital crowding is a direct result of the stupid panic and the idiotic promotion of testing as some kind of solution. All testing does is get a lot of the positive cases with zero or very mild symptoms sent to hospitals unnecessarily.

My city and the huge majority of other cities are not "taking a hit" because of not having a cluster of pre-travel ban people from China like King County, Washington or from Italy and the rest of Europe like New York.

I wonder how many of those health care workers are in favor of the stupidity of widespread testing and unnecessary hospitalizing people. Several I know are not real happy about if and see testing of asymptomatic people as a bad thing.

Testing isn't in-patient tex. People aren't on respirators for the test.

[mraynrand]

What's crazy, is that I have spent the afternoon watching ESPN the OCHO! I have watched arm wrestling, Golden Tee Championships, the Tetris World Championships, E60's report on Monster Wrestling, Dodgeball, and now the Marble World Championships.

Have you lost your marbles?

[texaspackerbacker]

Why are the hospitals being overrun with critcally sick in just a few weeks? Why hasn't that happened with all the comparison illness you keep referencing?

Who says they are "being overrun with critcally sick"? If anybody, it's the agenda-driven fake news media as well as panic-stricken dupes soaking up their crap.

You asked, "Why hasn't that happened with all the comparison illness you keep referencing?" Isn't the answer obvious? No idiotic big deal was made about those other maladies, even though they were more serious, probably much more serious than this corona thing. The difference now is the stupid testing and panic mongering.

[texaspackerbacker]

Testing isn't in-patient tex. People aren't on respirators for the test.

Did I say that? The overcrowding problem is the unnecessary hospitalization caused by the testing.

[texaspackerbacker]

I wonder if he will need a respirator? I hope they are available. Along with masks and gloves for his caregivers if he indeed becomes symptomatic.

He didn't even have symptoms despite being 57 years old. This is what I'm talking about - stupidly unnecessary testing leading in many cases (not Sen. Paul apparently) getting sent to hospitals unnecessarily.

[Joemailman]

He didn't even have symptoms despite being 57 years old. This is what I'm talking about - stupidly unnecessary testing leading in many cases (not Sen. Paul apparently) getting sent to hospitals unnecessarily.

Good Lord. Do you really not understand? Because he had not been tested, and continued to meet with people, he may have infected others, including other Senators.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/rand-paul-coronavirus/index.html


A statement from Paul's office posted to his Twitter account Sunday said he was "feeling fine" and was "tested out of an abundance of caution." But some senators and aides are angry at Paul for not doing more to self-quarantine earlier and for potentially exposing senators to the coronavirus.
[b]Paul attended a major black-tie social event in Louisville, Kentucky, two weeks ago where several attendees have subsequently tested positive, including the wife of Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told fellow senators Sunday in a lunch that Paul got tested because he had been at that event, several Republican sources told CNN.
Upon learning the news, Utah Sens. Mike Lee and Mitt Romney both announced they'd be self-quarantining.
Senate Republicans, emerging from their closed-door lunch where they received the news about Paul, were extremely unsettled.
GOP senators told CNN Paul was in the gym with colleagues Sunday morning, and several pointed out how close Paul had sat to others during Senate lunches in recent days. Sen. Jerry Moran of Kansas said he saw Paul in the Senate swimming pool Sunday, according to a source in the GOP lunch.
"This is a different ballgame now," one Republican senator told CNN.
Senate Majority Whip John Thune of South Dakota said on the Senate floor that senators will be seeking medical advice.
"We'll consult with the attending physician here at the Capitol about appropriate measures for those of us who have been in contact with the senator, but this is the kind of situation that Americans across the country are dealing with right now and it underscores the importance of acting immediately to deliver more relief for the American people," Thune said.
Romney, speaking before his decision to self-quarantine, echoed similar concerns.
"All the senators are going to seek medical advice as to what action we should take to make sure that we don't in any way spread this virus ourselves," Romney told reporters. "We had a lunch together with Rand, and hope he's doing very well, but we have to determine whether any of us should self-quarantine as a result of being in the same room."
Two Senate sources told CNN Paul's fellow senators are especially frustrated with him because he is also a doctor, and they feel that he should have known better -- noting that Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and other members of Congress self-quarantined in recent weeks after being exposed to someone who tested positive.
"Furious. Staff too. Everyone," a senator told CNN in a text message, describing the view among him and his colleagues.
A statement on Paul's twitter account said he left the Senate "immediately" after learning about his test results. The senator is in quarantine and asymptomatic, according to an earlier tweet posted to his account.

[mraynrand]

Good Lord. Do you really not understand? Because he had not been tested, and continued to meet with people, he may have infected others, including other Senators.

who do you think infected him?

[sharpe1027]

Did I say that? The overcrowding problem is the unnecessary hospitalization caused by the testing.

What basis do you have for this claim?

[pbmax]

Did I say that? The overcrowding problem is the unnecessary hospitalization caused by the testing.

Yes, there is nothing the hospital system is noted for quite like its propensity cancel elective procedures to free up hospital beds for unnecessary hospitalizations.

[call_me_ishmael]

What basis do you have for this claim?

He has none. In his opinion, this is all fake news and much ado about nothing. He’s an idiot.

[call_me_ishmael]

Second order effects kicking in.

https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241905579745931265?s=20

[call_me_ishmael]

The hospital crowding is a direct result of the stupid panic and the idiotic promotion of testing as some kind of solution. All testing does is get a lot of the positive cases with zero or very mild symptoms sent to hospitals unnecessarily.

My city and the huge majority of other cities are not "taking a hit" because of not having a cluster of pre-travel ban people from China like King County, Washington or from Italy and the rest of Europe like New York.

I wonder how many of those health care workers are in favor of the stupidity of widespread testing and unnecessary hospitalizing people. Several I know are not real happy about if and see testing of asymptomatic people as a bad thing.

I’m guessing they’re low level, lowly education medical assistants. Not highly educated and qualified doctors.

[mraynrand]

FYI: This is the model that everyone is using for combatting the virus

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[texaspackerbacker]

Yes, there is nothing the hospital system is noted for quite like its propensity cancel elective procedures to free up hospital beds for unnecessary hospitalizations.

True - yet another way of sticking it to regular otherwise unaffected people and forcing them to sacrifice.

[texaspackerbacker]

Good Lord. Do you really not understand? Because he had not been tested, and continued to meet with people, he may have infected others, including other Senators.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/rand-paul-coronavirus/index.html

Do you not understand? All of that doesn't matter. Those people in virtually every case could have lived their lives in a normal stress-free except for a few minor cold symptoms and usually not even that. All of this modification of behavior shit and sacrifice, and for what? You don't think sniffles and a low grade cough for a few days is less harmful? Yeah, I suppose you do not hahahahaha.

It's disgusting that otherwise generally sensible people are buying into this silliness.

[texaspackerbacker]

What basis do you have for this claim?

That the overcrowding is the direct result of the stupid testing? You would really ask that question? Sheeeesh.

[pbmax]

Do you not understand? All of that doesn't matter. Those people in virtually every case could have lived their lives in a normal stress-free except for a few minor cold symptoms and usually not even that. All of this modification of behavior shit and sacrifice, and for what? You don't think sniffles and a low grade cough for a few days is less harmful? Yeah, I suppose you do not hahahahaha.

It's disgusting that otherwise generally sensible people are buying into this silliness.

How many people do you think you pass it to while you have it and are asymptomatic? How many while symptomatic?

How many other 73 year olds do you come into contact that aren't quite as healthy as you?

[pbmax]

I have heard, but not seen confirmed that seasonal flu gets passed by an infected person to 1.3 or 1.4 other persons.

And that corona gets passed to close to 3 others. Anyone else have material on the transmission rate?

Rands post of the Imperial College methodology doesn't really mention it. It seems to model on other viruses they know about.

[texaspackerbacker]

How many people do you think you pass it to while you have it and are asymptomatic? How many while symptomatic?

How many other 73 year olds do you come into contact that aren't quite as healthy as you?

Last question first: a small sample, but maybe 1 out of a dozen or so who is much less healthy. Strictly speaking, though, almost nobody my age is quite as healthy as me hahahahaha.

Passing it on while asymptomatic? Last I heard, the jury is still out on this - maybe zero, maybe a lot. Optimist that I am, I lean toward the zero.

While symptomatic? I suppose anybody you cough close enough to or that touches the residue of your symptoms and touches their own whatever before washing thoroughly.

In both cases, the point is that whoever a person might spread it to is likely not to suffer significantly at all - nothing compared to what every American is suffering from the stupid overreaction to all this shit.

[call_me_ishmael]

That’s still 50-100/day and they get seasonal flu too., which kills a lot more than corona, and would be spiking about the same time. So unless they’re burning the bodies in one big outdoor pile like Jawas, I’m skeptical.

Why do you keep saying it kills more? That is beyond stupid and doesn't jive with current results seen in the real world and values projected by the CDC. You're spreading misinformation intentionally.

If an equal number of people get Covid 19 and the Flu, there were be at least 10-30x more deaths from covid based on what we've seen so far and what the CDC projects.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. "A lot more people get the flu" - No. Just no. Just no. Flu spreads to 1.3 people on average. Covid19 is 2-2.5 from the CDC. That means dramatically more people will get Covid19 given a similar window.

[call_me_ishmael]

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/05lwnV02jfFloolLnK5gF8qFhYI=/0x0:1941x1941/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1941x1941):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19817539/flu_covid_comparison_1_high_res.jpg

These are the facts as they are known today. The source is the CDC.

[call_me_ishmael]

If the curve we're on continues (it won't entirely due to social distancing), in five weeks we'd have:
Today: 34,717 cases

Tuesday: 69,434 cases
Friday: 138,868 cases

Monday: 277,736 cases
Thursday: 555,472 cases
Sunday: 1,110,944 cases

Wednesay: 2,221,888 cases
Saturday: 4,443,776 cases

Tuesday: 8,887,552 cases
Friday: 17,775,104 cases

Monday: 35,550,208 cases
Thursday: 71,100,416 cases
Sunday: 142,200,832 cases

Or nearly 4x the average flu season.

Having the exponential growth in front of us, let's say the death rate is 1% - which is presently on the low end of projections from the CDC. That brings us to 142,201 deaths in the next 5 weeks.

Will this happen in reality? Of course not, we know about the virus spread now, people are taking it seriously, schools are shut down, etc and most cities are taking the measures to keep their people home, with the bigger ones requiring people to shelter in place. I expect the growth rate to be quelled majorly any day now. To be crystal clear, the growth of the flu would be stymied by the measures we're taking, too.

I suspect the whole "15 days to stop the spread" gets extended to 30 days.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Last question first: a small sample, but maybe 1 out of a dozen or so who is much less healthy. Strictly speaking, though, almost nobody my age is quite as healthy as me hahahahaha.

Passing it on while asymptomatic? Last I heard, the jury is still out on this - maybe zero, maybe a lot. Optimist that I am, I lean toward the zero.

While symptomatic? I suppose anybody you cough close enough to or that touches the residue of your symptoms and touches their own whatever before washing thoroughly.

In both cases, the point is that whoever a person might spread it to is likely not to suffer significantly at all - nothing compared to what every American is suffering from the stupid overreaction to all this shit.

I don't understand why you continue to make these baseless claims when the hard evidence coming from the field (medical evidence from other countries and now in the US) continue to build against you? The sad part is there are many other people that believe the same shit, which eventually leads to forced lockdowns. In any event, I hope all the rats have prepped accordingly and we all make it to the other side of this so we can continue to root for the Packers. P.S. I do agree it is boring as fuck not being able to go to bars, restaurants, gyms, etc although I imagine being hooked up to a ventilator aint so hot either.

[sharpe1027]

That the overcrowding is the direct result of the stupid testing? You would really ask that question? Sheeeesh.

So, no basis. Got it.

[sharpe1027]

That the overcrowding is the direct result of the stupid testing? You would really ask that question? Sheeeesh.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-plea-from-italy-treat-patients-at-home/


. With 70% of ICU beds reserved for critically ill Covid-19 patients, those beds are being allocated only to those “with a reasonable chance to survive,” as physicians make wrenching triage choices to try to keep alive those who have a chance. “Older patients are not being resuscitated and die alone without appropriate palliative care, while the family is notified over the phone, often by a well-intentioned, exhausted, and emotionally depleted physician with no prior contact,” they report.

Sure sounds like a lot of needless people at the hospital. God Damn, Tex. Have you no empathy?

[Zool]

God Damn, Tex. Have you no empathy?

https://i.imgflip.com/3tp4ov.jpg

[pbmax]

https://i.imgflip.com/3tp4ov.jpg

Watched that this weekend again.

[texaspackerbacker]

I don't understand why you continue to make these baseless claims when the hard evidence coming from the field (medical evidence from other countries and now in the US) continue to build against you? The sad part is there are many other people that believe the same shit, which eventually leads to forced lockdowns. In any event, I hope all the rats have prepped accordingly and we all make it to the other side of this so we can continue to root for the Packers. P.S. I do agree it is boring as fuck not being able to go to bars, restaurants, gyms, etc although I imagine being hooked up to a ventilator aint so hot either.

Be at least a little bit specific. What do you see as a "baseless claim"? Common sense is often seen as "baseless" among panic-mongers, I guess.

[texaspackerbacker]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-plea-from-italy-treat-patients-at-home/



Sure sounds like a lot of needless people at the hospital. God Damn, Tex. Have you no empathy?

Empathy? For druggies catching AIDS from needles? Hell no, not for that. That's the only time I mentioned empathy.

This hospital crowding thing? You have it exactly backwards - surprise surprise. If they don't have enough beds for truly sick old people dying from corona or whatever (and that is a very shaky claim just about everywhere in the country), the reason is the herding of people with mild or no symptoms into hospitals unnecessarily.

If I'm gonna have empathy, it's gonna be for the huge majority of good normal people, not a few exceptional cases, and absolutely not for shithead druggies and others who suffer because of bad choices they make.

Oh yeah, and Zool, you continue to be a worthless piece of shit and dumb as a rock, incapable of putting a coherent sentences together much less a whole post.

[pbmax]

Exterior: Highway with slowing traffic

Interior: Car windshield looking at traffic slowing near accident

Driver: Hmmm

Passenger: looks bad, lot of ambulances

Driver: Traffic fatalities are down this year

Passenger: Shame when humans fail to deliver

Driver: You have to know when its your time

Interior: Floor pedals: driver hits accelerator

[texaspackerbacker]

Good job, driver - getting the fuck out of the way and not contributing to the problem. Shame you have to carry around dumbasses, though. I'm in Packerrats, so I can certainly empathize with you about that.

[George Cumby]

If I'm gonna have empathy, it's gonna be for the small minority of ignorant, white, proto-fascists who think/believe exactly as I do and absolutely not for shithead blacks, Mexicans or anyone else who doesn't submit to the ultimate superiority of white Christian-Dominionism.

Oh yeah, and Zool, you continue to be a model poster, who's incisive analysis, quick wit, capacity for logic and intelligence are quite beyond my limited capacity to understand.


FTFY

[mraynrand]

Why do you keep saying it kills more? That is beyond stupid and doesn't jive with current results seen in the real world and values projected by the CDC. You're spreading misinformation intentionally.

If an equal number of people get Covid 19 and the Flu, there were be at least 10-30x more deaths from covid based on what we've seen so far and what the CDC projects.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. "A lot more people get the flu" - No. Just no. Just no. Flu spreads to 1.3 people on average. Covid19 is 2-2.5 from the CDC. That means dramatically more people will get Covid19 given a similar window.

There are two separate issues here. One is the Ro which they have reasonably good data on. Corona is much more infectious than flu. What we still don’t know for certain is the total exposure of corona, because they’re still catching up with testing and the testing is skewed towards people presenting with symptoms which will give higher numbers.

more total people will be exposed to corona and infected but don’t know yet exact numbers of those with illness (actual symptoms) compared to those showing no symptoms.

I’ve said before that I’m hopeful, specifically because corona is far more infectious, that far more people actually have been exposed and ‘recovered’ (many without knowing it) so that the lethal numbers we have now will be over estimates.

[mraynrand]

Again, it still doesn’t mean corona is not a serious Illness. As I’ve been saying from the beginning it acts a lot like flu - it’s infectious enough to be endemic so that ultimately there’s no way to really hide from it. Everyone effectively gets exposed. It’s gonna suck to have another flu like disease that kills thousands probably each season, assuming it comes back seasonally. It mutates a lot so it may be as impervious to vaccine as seasonal flu. Even with a good flu vaccine regimen, tens of thousands die each year from flu.

But the reason we tolerate flu the way we do, is that there’s no way to hide from it. Even as we shut down for corona, everyone is going to be exposed eventually and eventually we’re probably going to have to live with it. I don’t know the long term prospects of the chloroquine drug, but the virus is likely to mutate enough so escape that drug just like malaria did. Hopefully it will be effective for most corona this season as needed.

Again, I just hope the lethality percentages are overestimated. But as we learn more about the virus we’ll know how to combat it. Eventually I think we’ll sequester the susceptible over social distancing the whole society.

[texaspackerbacker]

FTFY

Cumby, you America-hating shithead, that is absolutely NOT a quote from me. pbmax, can you sanction him for posting a blatant misquote like that?

[call_me_ishmael]

There are two separate issues here. One is the Ro which they have reasonably good data on. Corona is much more infectious than flu. What we still don’t know for certain is the total exposure of corona, because they’re still catching up with testing and the testing is skewed towards people presenting with symptoms which will give higher numbers.

more total people will be exposed to corona and infected but don’t know yet exact numbers of those with illness (actual symptoms) compared to those showing no symptoms.

I’ve said before that I’m hopeful, specifically because corona is far more infectious, that far more people actually have been exposed and ‘recovered’ (many without knowing it) so that the lethal numbers we have now will be over estimates.

I think we’re all hopeful of that. Right now you’re knowingly and intentionally spreading disinformation. That’s really shitty of you. Right now there are no facts to support your narrative. In a few weeks or months there might be, but right now it’s unfounded speculation based on hope and whimsy. That’s wildly irresponsible and dangerous.

[pbmax]

Cumby, you America-hating shithead, that is absolutely NOT a quote from me. pbmax, can you sanction him for posting a blatant misquote like that?

I believe custom allows mocking changes to quotes as long as the poster indicates that they have altered it. Fixed That For You acronyms counts.

Though George could be kinder and bold the section he altered.

[mraynrand]

I think we’re all hopeful of that. Right now you’re knowingly and intentionally spreading disinformation. That’s really shitty of you. Right now there are no facts to support your narrative. In a few weeks or months there might be, but right now it’s unfounded speculation based on hope and whimsy. That’s wildly irresponsible and dangerous.

That’s weird. You’re doing exactly what you’re accusing me of - you don’t know the denominator so you’re quoting lethality percentages that are clearly deceptive. My estimates are all qualified.

[call_me_ishmael]

That’s weird. You’re doing exactly what you’re accusing me of - you don’t know the denominator so you’re quoting lethality percentages that are clearly deceptive. My estimates are all qualified.

I'm using the facts as they exist today from the CDC. That's the responsible thing to do. If anything, my approach is the *conservative* approach. If the death rate goes down because the denominator increases, the amount of deaths is still the same. It might in time prove to be less deadly than the flu, but right now there is no reason to believe that beyond hope and whimsy.

[bobblehead]

Tell that to the health care workers tex. That its all a big nothing. A media invention. Those 200 beds in King County on a soccer field are just a PR stunt.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/king-county-to-put-200-bed-field-hospital-on-shoreline-soccer-field-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/

You could be glad other states and cities are taking the hit to help keep you city healthy, but I kind of doubt you will see it that way.

I don't want to get to political, I know this isn't FYI. But I have to say this. Tex reaction is more common than you think, and the reason is simple. The media has cried wolf and disseminated disinformation so many times in an attempt to hurt trump that half the trump supporters I know feel like Tex does.

The media has done neither itself or the public any favors by almost literally becoming the boy who cried wolf over the last 3+ years. This is way serious and now because people have lived through the lies and disinformation for so long they think its just another attempt to hurt the president. Worst of all, because of the measures we are taking I would bet the death total comes in under the 12.5k median that H1N1 caused. It wasn't nearly as deadly as this and the previous president and media largely ignored it, but because the media LOVES to inflame and cause panic over all things right and forgive any transgressions of the left the numbers will be cited as evidence of just that instead of evidence that we handled this very well when all was said and done.

The media will be in a tough spot. Either admit Trump handled it well, or admit they peddled in panic for this, but not H1N1. The truth for the objective is that this could be a catastrophe but for the swift decisive action taken in shutting down travel from China while others were screaming racist and xenophobe. For holding daily infomercials while others were screaming your acting like a scientist...you know nothing.

What a wonderful world this would be if the media learned their role again as informers, not partisans. Alas, when this is over, Tex will be saying this was a hoax to hurt our president and Ismail will be saying Trump botched this and no one would have died at all if Hillary were president.

There, said my piece, ban me, censor me, whatever.

[mraynrand]

I'm using the facts as they exist today from the CDC. That's the responsible thing to do. If anything, my approach is the *conservative* approach. If the death rate goes down because the denominator increases, the amount of deaths is still the same. It might in time prove to be less deadly than the flu, but right now there is no reason to believe that beyond hope and whimsy.

That’s incorrect. There’s very good reason to believe it will come down for the very reasons I’ve stated, and specifically because it already has for exactly the reason I’ve stated. If you’ll recall people were panicking just weeks ago thinking the overall lethality was 4 plus percent and now we’re 1% and lower depending on country and demographics. So be better and stop spreading disinformation.

[bobblehead]

Good Lord. Do you really not understand? Because he had not been tested, and continued to meet with people, he may have infected others, including other Senators.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/rand-paul-coronavirus/index.html

This is a joke. He had zero symptoms. If they are mad at him, they should all be mad at themselves unless they got tested earlier than him or unless they have all been quarantined for the last 2 weeks. He did exactly what they all were doing.

[bobblehead]

He has none. In his opinion, this is all fake news and much ado about nothing. He’s an idiot.

Hello mirror.

[bobblehead]

I’m guessing they’re low level, lowly education medical assistants. Not highly educated and qualified doctors.

Testing 300 million people who are not showing symptoms would be idiotic expensive and nearly impossible.

[bobblehead]

Why do you keep saying it kills more? That is beyond stupid and doesn't jive with current results seen in the real world and values projected by the CDC. You're spreading misinformation intentionally.

If an equal number of people get Covid 19 and the Flu, there were be at least 10-30x more deaths from covid based on what we've seen so far and what the CDC projects.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. "A lot more people get the flu" - No. Just no. Just no. Flu spreads to 1.3 people on average. Covid19 is 2-2.5 from the CDC. That means dramatically more people will get Covid19 given a similar window.

The reason it spreads more easily is the longer incubation period. Now that I see that it probably is no more infectious than the common flu. Most recent numbers say its about 10x more deadly, the low end that the panic merchants have touted.

[mraynrand]

Testing 300 million people who are not showing symptoms would be idiotic expensive and nearly impossible.

I could tell him that epidemiologists do controlled studies to determine population spread but he seems to already have mystical knowledge of those numbers so what’s the point. Maybe he could save us from a lot of expensive testing/research by sharing these exact numbers with the government.

[mraynrand]

The reason it spreads more easily is the longer incubation period. Now that I see that it probably is no more infectious than the common flu. Most recent numbers say its about 10x more deadly, the low end that the panic merchants have touted.

It depends on the study. At least a couple of studies show that there are far more particles in the upper respiratory system (that can be aerosolized in droplets, but then others show that many of the viral particles are quickly attenuated (dead). So I’m not entirely certain the infectiousness of this thing is slam dunk known, but right now it appears to be higher than seasonal flu.

[bobblehead]

I think we’re all hopeful of that. Right now you’re knowingly and intentionally spreading disinformation. That’s really shitty of you. Right now there are no facts to support your narrative. In a few weeks or months there might be, but right now it’s unfounded speculation based on hope and whimsy. That’s wildly irresponsible and dangerous.

He is in fact the only one here who is hitting the right cord....and I disagree with Rand often, but you are in his wheelhouse here and he has run laps around your posts.

[bobblehead]

I'm using the facts as they exist today from the CDC. That's the responsible thing to do. If anything, my approach is the *conservative* approach. If the death rate goes down because the denominator increases, the amount of deaths is still the same. It might in time prove to be less deadly than the flu, but right now there is no reason to believe that beyond hope and whimsy.

You misinterpret facts as fits your needs while also misinterpreting them due to your inherent bias.

[call_me_ishmael]

You misinterpret facts as fits your needs while also misinterpreting them due to your inherent bias.

Show me an example of this please. Enlighten me.

[call_me_ishmael]

Testing 300 million people who are not showing symptoms would be idiotic expensive and nearly impossible.

But that's what the countries that are succeeding are doing. Look no further than South Korea. Is it really expensive? We just created 6 trillion dollars out of thin air at the fed level, so STFU with the "it's expensive" BS.

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting that. I am merely stating that Tex has no idea what he's talking about. Talk to any ER doc - I know many - and they are freaking the fuck out. Froedert in Milwaukee has so few supplies that they are literally willing to take my used safety googles that I wear when I chainsaw. They're also willing to take my extra n95 masks that I have laying around in my dusty ass basement that I used to hang drywall a couple years back.

[mraynrand]

Cumby, you America-hating shithead

Crumby isn’t an America hater, he’s a Tex hater. 😀

[mraynrand]

We just created 6 trillion dollars out of thin air

Jesus wept

Why not just create the testing kits out of thin air then? And masks and TP as well. Hell, just create the damn vaccine out of thin air while you’re at it.

[pbmax]

Testing 300 million people who are not showing symptoms would be idiotic expensive and nearly impossible.

It would be good to be able to test the entire known contact list. It would greatly increase what is known about the spread and how deadly it could be.

If you could combine South Korea's testing level with physical distancing, you'd probably be able to keep a lot more public space and business open. Assuming what you get, as Rand is thinking, is good news.

The antibody testing Rand mentioned will be good too, but I think this is down the line some. Some decent planning and coordination early could have made more testing available early. This is where de-emphasizing public health hurt.

[bobblehead]

Show me an example of this please. Enlighten me.

So you can say doesn't count, pretend you were never debunked and carry on with your ways? Been there done that.

[Zool]

Oh yeah, and Zool, you continue to be a worthless piece of shit and dumb as a rock, incapable of putting a coherent sentences together much less a whole post.

Tex, you never told us about your budding music career.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrgpZ0fUixs

[Zool]

Crumby isn’t an America hater, he’s a Tex hater. ��

One of us....one of us....one of us

[bobblehead]

It would be good to be able to test the entire known contact list. It would greatly increase what is known about the spread and how deadly it could be.

If you could combine South Korea's testing level with physical distancing, you'd probably be able to keep a lot more public space and business open. Assuming what you get, as Rand is thinking, is good news.

The antibody testing Rand mentioned will be good too, but I think this is down the line some. Some decent planning and coordination early could have made more testing available early. This is where de-emphasizing public health hurt.

And that is exactly what they are attempting to do. But partisans like Ismail pretend we are not and its frustrating.

[pbmax]

And that is exactly what they are attempting to do. But partisans like Ismail pretend we are not and its frustrating.

Valuable time was lost though.

Wisconsin is closing down this week the Governor announced.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Valuable time was lost though.

Wisconsin is closing down this week the Governor announced.

Exactly, the US should have been preparing when China was getting hammered. In my mind, there is no excuse for not having enough test kits, not enough masks.

[pbmax]

And that is exactly what they are attempting to do. But partisans like Ismail pretend we are not and its frustrating.

I think they are still on symptomatic cases for testing.

[pbmax]

Exactly, the US should have been preparing when China was getting hammered. In my mind, there is no excuse for not having enough test kits, not enough masks.

The history of not being prepared for pandemics or near-pandemics is a long one though. Whatever virus hit in 2009 I believe exposed the possibly severe lack of respirators, but it never turned the corner to disastrous. So little changed between then and now.

I'll try to find that link.

[pbmax]

The history of not being prepared for pandemics or near-pandemics is a long one though. Whatever virus hit in 2009 I believe exposed the possibly severe lack of respirators, but it never turned the corner to disastrous. So little changed between then and now.

I'll try to find that link.

Still digging, but this is a decent setup for the 2009 H1N1 virus that highlighted the likely shortages. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/07/when-the-next-plague-hits/561734/


Yet just 10 years ago, the virus that the world is most prepared for caught almost everyone off guard. In the early 2000s, the CDC was focused mostly on Asia, where H5N1—the type of flu deemed most likely to cause the next pandemic—was running wild among poultry and waterfowl. But while experts fretted about H5N1 in birds in the East, new strains of H1N1 were evolving within pigs in the West. One of those swine strains jumped into humans in Mexico, launching outbreaks there and in the U.S. in early 2009. The surveillance web picked it up only in mid-April of that year, when the CDC tested samples from two California children who had recently fallen ill.

One of the most sophisticated disease-detecting networks in the world had been blindsided by a virus that had sprung up in its backyard, circulated for months, and snuck into the country unnoticed. “We joked that the influenza virus is listening in on our conference calls,” says Daniel Jernigan, who directs the CDC’s Influenza Division. “It tends to do whatever we’re least expecting.”

[pbmax]

The highlights:


American hospitals, which often operate unnervingly close to full capacity, likewise struggled with the surge of patients. Pediatric units were hit especially hard by H1N1, and staff became exhausted from continuously caring for sick children. Hospitals almost ran out of the life-support units that sustain people whose lungs and hearts start to fail. The health-care system didn’t break, but it came too close for comfort—especially for what turned out to be a training-wheels pandemic. The 2009 H1N1 strain killed merely 0.03 percent of those it infected; by contrast, the 1918 strain had killed 1 to 3 percent, and the H7N9 strain currently circulating in China has a fatality rate of 40 percent.

[pbmax]

Possible lessons:


“A lot of people said that we dodged a bullet in 2009, but nature just shot us with a BB gun,” says Richard Hatchett, the CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. Tom Inglesby, a biosecurity expert at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, told me that if a 1918-style pandemic hit, his hospital “would need in the realm of seven times as many critical-care beds and four times as many ventilators as we have on hand.”

That the U.S. could be so ill-prepared for flu, of all things, should be deeply concerning. The country has a dedicated surveillance web, antiviral drugs, and an infrastructure for making and deploying flu vaccines. None of that exists for the majority of other emerging infectious diseases.

[sharpe1027]

Empathy? For druggies catching AIDS from needles? Hell no, not for that. That's the only time I mentioned empathy.

This hospital crowding thing? You have it exactly backwards - surprise surprise. If they don't have enough beds for truly sick old people dying from corona or whatever (and that is a very shaky claim just about everywhere in the country), the reason is the herding of people with mild or no symptoms into hospitals unnecessarily.

If I'm gonna have empathy, it's gonna be for the huge majority of good normal people, not a few exceptional cases, and absolutely not for shithead druggies and others who suffer because of bad choices they make.

Oh yeah, and Zool, you continue to be a worthless piece of shit and dumb as a rock, incapable of putting a coherent sentences together much less a whole post.

They are running out of ventilators. This has nothing to do with too much testing. People don't go on ventilators for fun .

[mraynrand]

If you want a rational look at this, read this:

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Jeebus. Medium pulled this. It was full of completely solid information. This guy was skeptical because of some non-evidence-based projections and wanted to offer another perspective. I hate that decisions like this are being made. Objectors should have written a rebuttal instead.

[George Cumby]

They are running out of ventilators. This has nothing to do with too much testing. People don't go on ventilators for fun .

This.

I almost lost a kid to respiratory failure. It's fucking gnarly and incredibly resource intensive.

She was on the ventilator for 7-10 days, teams of doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, the whole nine yards. Dozens of people, not including my wife and I and a bunch of friends not leaving her side 24/7, to save one one year old kid.

Now multiply that by how many thousands?

You all can circle-jerk arguments about the media all you like, this thing is going to get a fuck of a lot worse before it gets better.

I pray that none of you or the ones you love goes critical because being intubated for over a week ain't no walk in the park; respiratory failure is a stone cold fucked up way to die.

[George Cumby]

Cumby, you America-hating shithead, that is absolutely NOT a quote from me. pbmax, can you sanction him for posting a blatant misquote like that?

See? You're such a fucking snow-flake pussy.

You're the first to abuse anyone whose opinion you don't like, you post with not an iota of empathy or caring for your fellow man, your callous disregard for other humans in suffering drips from your posts but when you get mocked for that, you cry 'foul' and want daddy to protect you from meanie George.

You're fucking pathetic.

[pbmax]

Jeebus. Medium pulled this. It was full of completely solid information. This guy was skeptical because of some non-evidence-based projections and wanted to offer another perspective. I hate that decisions like this are being made. Objectors should have written a rebuttal instead.

He made 4 distinct errors in the first six paragraphs of the piece. He literally gave the link to data then wrote a different number in the piece. Also rewrote polling questions and/or answers.

I did not get far into the numbers but the piece was suspect right from the get go. Each error was in the same direction.

[George Cumby]

He made 4 distinct errors in the first six paragraphs of the piece. He literally gave the link to data then wrote a different number in the piece. Also rewrote polling questions and/or answers.

I did not get far into the numbers but the piece was suspect right from the get go. Each error was in the same direction.

Yeah, I started to read it but couldn't get close to finishing it, it was so flawed.

[mraynrand]

He made 4 distinct errors in the first six paragraphs of the piece. He literally gave the link to data then wrote a different number in the piece. Also rewrote polling questions and/or answers.

I did not get far into the numbers but the piece was suspect right from the get go. Each error was in the same direction.

So fix it or rebut it like you just did. I used it as a link to data.

[bobblehead]

Valuable time was lost though.

Wisconsin is closing down this week the Governor announced.

Valuable time was lost when China lied to the world. Now the money they invested in the WHO is paying off as the world pretends that's not the case. Show me all the experts who were demanding we test more vigorously earlier than we did. You are repeating a talking point that has been debunked already. Resources are limited and I don't mean just money. And again, testing symptomatic people can only be done if those people come in to be tested. People didn't take it seriously early, they called the president racist and accused him of being xenophobic....then those same people whined that he didn't act fast enough.

[bobblehead]

I think they are still on symptomatic cases for testing.

Then why did Rand Paul get tested? Again, you can't force everyone on a chain to get tested. You can recommend they do. And again, if people had taken this seriously when we locked down travel from china we would have more kits not....but they didn't. They ALL didn't.

[bobblehead]

He made 4 distinct errors in the first six paragraphs of the piece. He literally gave the link to data then wrote a different number in the piece. Also rewrote polling questions and/or answers.

I did not get far into the numbers but the piece was suspect right from the get go. Each error was in the same direction.

Which is the norm now days. Like I said, how about the media go back to writing information instead of trying to impose a bias. All the media.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Valuable time was lost when China lied to the world. Now the money they invested in the WHO is paying off as the world pretends that's not the case. Show me all the experts who were demanding we test more vigorously earlier than we did. You are repeating a talking point that has been debunked already. Resources are limited and I don't mean just money. And again, testing symptomatic people can only be done if those people come in to be tested. People didn't take it seriously early, they called the president racist and accused him of being xenophobic....then those same people whined that he didn't act fast enough.

He didn't act fast enough, but it wasn't just him.

[texaspackerbacker]

I don't want to get to political, I know this isn't FYI. But I have to say this. Tex reaction is more common than you think, and the reason is simple. The media has cried wolf and disseminated disinformation so many times in an attempt to hurt trump that half the trump supporters I know feel like Tex does.

The media has done neither itself or the public any favors by almost literally becoming the boy who cried wolf over the last 3+ years. This is way serious and now because people have lived through the lies and disinformation for so long they think its just another attempt to hurt the president. Worst of all, because of the measures we are taking I would bet the death total comes in under the 12.5k median that H1N1 caused. It wasn't nearly as deadly as this and the previous president and media largely ignored it, but because the media LOVES to inflame and cause panic over all things right and forgive any transgressions of the left the numbers will be cited as evidence of just that instead of evidence that we handled this very well when all was said and done.

The media will be in a tough spot. Either admit Trump handled it well, or admit they peddled in panic for this, but not H1N1. The truth for the objective is that this could be a catastrophe but for the swift decisive action taken in shutting down travel from China while others were screaming racist and xenophobe. For holding daily infomercials while others were screaming your acting like a scientist...you know nothing.

What a wonderful world this would be if the media learned their role again as informers, not partisans. Alas, when this is over, Tex will be saying this was a hoax to hurt our president and Ismail will be saying Trump botched this and no one would have died at all if Hillary were president.

There, said my piece, ban me, censor me, whatever.

Excellent Post, Bobblehead. I was trying to leave direct political references in the FYI thread, but it is what it is.

The fact is, a huge portion of the population, likely a majority already at this point sees this farce for what it is - and for the record, I do not and will not say the virus itself was a hoax. The stupid overreaction to it? No, as bad as that has been, I wouldn't quite call it a hoax either. Most of the people pushing this misguided crap are probably sincere in their panic. The media, as with so many things, are the primary villains here, but a lot of good people - including Trump himself (I think this is the first time I've mentioned him outside of the FYI thread) have been sincerely taken in and overdone the shit they have forced on us.

As time goes by, though, and it becomes more and more apparent that nobody is dying from this other than some old sick people who were close to dying anyway, and the huge majority of people getting it don't have any more than very mild symptoms, and many none at all. I bet the most likely people to realize the stupidity of the overreaction are the people who already got corona - they know.

[pbmax]

So fix it or rebut it like you just did. I used it as a link to data.

Not sure what he is doing now.

[pbmax]

Then why did Rand Paul get tested? Again, you can't force everyone on a chain to get tested. You can recommend they do. And again, if people had taken this seriously when we locked down travel from china we would have more kits not....but they didn't. They ALL didn't.

Oh, we can talk for a long time about the wealthy and connected getting tests ahead of everyone else.

After stating testing was continuing to be for the symptomatic, Pence and his wife were tested. Do as I say, not as I do.

[pbmax]

Valuable time was lost when China lied to the world. Now the money they invested in the WHO is paying off as the world pretends that's not the case. Show me all the experts who were demanding we test more vigorously earlier than we did. You are repeating a talking point that has been debunked already. Resources are limited and I don't mean just money. And again, testing symptomatic people can only be done if those people come in to be tested. People didn't take it seriously early, they called the president racist and accused him of being xenophobic....then those same people whined that he didn't act fast enough.

I voted for a President of the United States, not the Premier of China.

Everyone knew not having testing ready was a mistake. The first thing Pence's task force went out to do was to see if they could unscramble the 3M attempt and then promise 1,000,000 kits by the end of the week. C'mon, be serious. Testing is step 1 and they fucked it up. Perhaps it was too late by then. But they paid zero attention to it until coverage started to hurt.

And someone turned down the WHO testing kit in favor of the one CDC was developing. A CDC that was underfunded and had no backup plan.

Every infectious disease expert said the same thing early: a travel ban buys you time with these viruses. They did not use that time effectively.

When your media strategy is to say verifiably false things very loudly to dominate headlines, you are exacerbating, not downplaying your coverage. Its not an unintended consequence, its the intended consequence.

This is the same thing that happens each time. The details are different but the patterns and weak points are the same. The virus is novel, the slow reaction to a known problem isn't. Put it into business friendly terms. The failure to have testing be prioritized and ready to go has meant that closing down society is the one preventative step left that we have to slow progression of serious illness. Its a colossal failure.

[texaspackerbacker]

See? You're such a fucking snow-flake pussy.

You're the first to abuse anyone whose opinion you don't like, you post with not an iota of empathy or caring for your fellow man, your callous disregard for other humans in suffering drips from your posts but when you get mocked for that, you cry 'foul' and want daddy to protect you from meanie George.

You're fucking pathetic.

You God damned worthless piece of shit. I can take anything you or any other scumbag dishes out in the form of opinion or whatever, but blatantly and dishonestly misquoting me is over the top. I don't care what pbmax says about some kind of custom. You should be BANNED. You probably should be sued for liable and slander. Hell, if there's any justice, trash like you need to suffer and die painfully.

[pbmax]

OK. If we can't dial it back, I am going to close the thread. Please be civil and possibly return to the sports aspects of it if possible.

They are still throwing horseshoes on ESPN2. I wonder if horseshoes can hold the coronavirus? Copper is very inhospitable to it, wonder about iron?

[George Cumby]

You God damned worthless piece of shit. I can take anything you or any other scumbag dishes out in the form of opinion or whatever, but blatantly and dishonestly misquoting me is over the top. I don't care what pbmax says about some kind of custom. You should be BANNED. You probably should be sued for liable and slander. Hell, if there's any justice, trash like you need to suffer and die painfully.

Wow.

Peace and Love, Bro'.

[texaspackerbacker]

I voted for a President of the United States, not the Premier of China.

Everyone knew not having testing ready was a mistake. The first thing Pence's task force went out to do was to see if they could unscramble the 3M attempt and then promise 1,000,000 kits by the end of the week. C'mon, be serious. Testing is step 1 and they fucked it up. Perhaps it was too late by then. But they paid zero attention to it until coverage started to hurt.

And someone turned down the WHO testing kit in favor of the one CDC was developing. A CDC that was underfunded and had no backup plan.

Every infectious disease expert said the same thing early: a travel ban buys you time with these viruses. They did not use that time effectively.

When your media strategy is to say verifiably false things very loudly to dominate headlines, you are exacerbating, not downplaying your coverage. Its not an unintended consequence, its the intended consequence.

This is the same thing that happens each time. The details are different but the patterns and weak points are the same. The virus is novel, the slow reaction to a known problem isn't.

pbmax, Exactly what good do you see in testing? I would suggest that the only thing testing does is give fuel to the panic-mongers - oooh we have so many more cases now; why? because we had more testing. Never mind that nobody dies from it who isn't most of the way gone already, and hardly anybody even gets more than very mildly sick from it.

More and more, it is becoming obvious to people that we have been fucked up by the panic-mongers messing up our lives. The "cure" really is worse than the disease.

[George Cumby]

You God damned worthless piece of shit. I can take anything you or any other scumbag dishes out in the form of opinion or whatever, but blatantly and dishonestly misquoting me is over the top. I don't care what pbmax says about some kind of custom. You should be BANNED. You probably should be sued for liable and slander. Hell, if there's any justice, trash like you need to suffer and die painfully.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPn0KFlbqX8

[Fosco33]

Cherry spitting on ESPN the ocho should surely be rescheduled.

[ThunderDan]

pbmax, Exactly what good do you see in testing? I would suggest that the only thing testing does is give fuel to the panic-mongers - oooh we have so many more cases now; why? because we had more testing. Never mind that nobody dies from it who isn't most of the way gone already, and hardly anybody even gets more than very mildly sick from it.

More and more, it is becoming obvious to people that we have been fucked up by the panic-mongers messing up our lives. The "cure" really is worse than the disease.

Then why have doctors and hospitals? No need to test for anything. If you are supposed to die you are supposed to die. Why give vaccines? No need for medicine.

[texaspackerbacker]

Is that what you think hospitals are all about, testing? Curing what ails you, that's their purpose, and if you don't have any significant symptoms, you're probably just clogging the system. Whiners are whining about alleged overcrowding, yet mostly the same people doing that whining are craving more tests - resulting in more people unnecessarily being sent to hospitals.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I see that Canada isn't sending athletes to Japan for the Olympics and wants the Games delayed by a year.

[call_me_ishmael]

Then why did Rand Paul get tested? Again, you can't force everyone on a chain to get tested. You can recommend they do. And again, if people had taken this seriously when we locked down travel from china we would have more kits not....but they didn't. They ALL didn't.

If "people", who are these people? The only people I can imagine you talking about in this case is the Trump cabinet. In which case, I agree. What was the average person supposed to do when the government was telling them not to worry? FWIW, my wife kept our family on the ball for about a month now so we've been well stocked on food and essentials. But the average person who doesn't have an exceptional wife? Probably listening to the man in the big chair.


Which is the norm now days. Like I said, how about the media go back to writing information instead of trying to impose a bias. All the media.

I agree with this too.


*snip* nobody would die if Hillary was President

This is nonsense. I would never say such a thing. I would call a spade a spade. Early inaction here was very problematic and would be for any President regardless of political affiliation. This is not a good situation at all and I don't wish ANYONE gets caught up in it.

[call_me_ishmael]

I see that Canada isn't sending athletes to Japan for the Olympics and wants the Games delayed by a year.

I think it's inevitable.

[pbmax]

pbmax, Exactly what good do you see in testing? I would suggest that the only thing testing does is give fuel to the panic-mongers - oooh we have so many more cases now; why? because we had more testing. Never mind that nobody dies from it who isn't most of the way gone already, and hardly anybody even gets more than very mildly sick from it.

More and more, it is becoming obvious to people that we have been fucked up by the panic-mongers messing up our lives. The "cure" really is worse than the disease.

More robust testing earlier lets you quarantine a smaller set of possible carriers and symptomatic. That would reduce the spread. If you know where the trouble is, easier to isolate early and on smaller scale.

Now, we are in a mass quarantine to achieve similar results and slow the spread.

[pbmax]

Is that what you think hospitals are all about, testing? Curing what ails you, that's their purpose, and if you don't have any significant symptoms, you're probably just clogging the system. Whiners are whining about alleged overcrowding, yet mostly the same people doing that whining are craving more tests - resulting in more people unnecessarily being sent to hospitals.


Ever had a colonoscopy? Any cancer screen? Wife had a pap smear? Mammogram?

Large scale testing done right doesn't involve a hospital. Its a kit you can give remotely at small clinics or at drive thrus.

[bobblehead]

Oh, we can talk for a long time about the wealthy and connected getting tests ahead of everyone else.

After stating testing was continuing to be for the symptomatic, Pence and his wife were tested. Do as I say, not as I do.

Agree there. Celebrities, politicians, and athletes are likely tested at a rate 20x the population at large.

But again I state. Getting tested doesn't do jack for you except piece of mind. If you have it its the treatment you get that matters. I'll never argue that life is fair, I will argue that thinking you can mandate fairness is naive.

[bobblehead]

Ever had a colonoscopy? Any cancer screen? Wife had a pap smear? Mammogram?

Large scale testing done right doesn't involve a hospital. Its a kit you can give remotely at small clinics or at drive thrus.

But ramping up production of a new test isn't easy. At UMC in NV they aren't testing for wuhan flu. The results take too long to get back. They are testing for 18 other things and if they are all negative then they treat you for chinese virus. If china had let our CDC into china in December we would have ramped up production of a test kit by mid January and have a ton of them available. Instead we started ramping up when we finally could (Guessing like 2 weeks ago) and now people are clamoring "not fast enough"

[mraynrand]

Ever had a colonoscopy?

Not voluntarily

[pbmax]

Agree there. Celebrities, politicians, and athletes are likely tested at a rate 20x the population at large.

But again I state. Getting tested doesn't do jack for you except piece of mind. If you have it its the treatment you get that matters. I'll never argue that life is fair, I will argue that thinking you can mandate fairness is naive.

It doesn't unless its wide enough to let you be more effective with limited quarantines.

The CDC or WHO testing kits have been produced at scale. But the CDC version had flaws in one or two of its reagents that rendered other labs unable to verify that the tests worked properly. Those had to be redone and there was a three week delay.

During those three weeks, all testing had to happen in Atlanta at the CDC, which is not designed to handle that kind of throughout.

Three weeks took you from containment and mitigation to suppression. Having a backup plan would have been good.

[call_me_ishmael]

Olympics postponed!!!

[Fosco33]

Summerfear moves to Sept

[texaspackerbacker]

Ever had a colonoscopy? Any cancer screen? Wife had a pap smear? Mammogram?

Large scale testing done right doesn't involve a hospital. Its a kit you can give remotely at small clinics or at drive thrus.

And you don't see the difference???? The things you mention are to determine if there is a serious life threatening condition that needs treating. This corona testing is NOT that at all. It is designed to overcrowd hospitals with people whose life is absolutely not threatened, and it is designed to throw gasoline on the fire which is the idiocy of panicky overreaction to this thing.

America is waking up, though. People are coming around to seeing this shit for what it is, and saying No Mas!

[sharpe1027]

And you don't see the difference???? The things you mention are to determine if there is a serious life threatening condition that needs treating. This corona testing is NOT that at all. It is designed to overcrowd hospitals with people whose life is absolutely not threatened, and it is designed to throw gasoline on the fire which is the idiocy of panicky overreaction to this thing.

America is waking up, though. People are coming around to seeing this shit for what it is, and saying No Mas!

Why are hospitals running out of ventilators?

[sharpe1027]

And you don't see the difference???? The things you mention are to determine if there is a serious life threatening condition that needs treating. This corona testing is NOT that at all. It is designed to overcrowd hospitals with people whose life is absolutely not threatened, and it is designed to throw gasoline on the fire which is the idiocy of panicky overreaction to this thing.

America is waking up, though. People are coming around to seeing this shit for what it is, and saying No Mas!

People please ignore this bullshit and think of someone besides yourself.

[MadtownPacker]

OK. If we can't dial it back, I am going to close the thread. Please be civil and possibly return to the sports aspects of it if possible.

They are still throwing horseshoes on ESPN2. I wonder if horseshoes can hold the coronavirus? Copper is very inhospitable to it, wonder about iron?Threads don’t closed they get moved. This is a legit topic but you let it stray too far out of bounds.

Romper Room for now and if needed FYI.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Threads don’t closed they get moved. This is a legit topic but you let it stray too far out of bounds.

Romper Room for now and if needed FYI.

Romper Room! Romper Room!

[call_me_ishmael]

And you don't see the difference???? The things you mention are to determine if there is a serious life threatening condition that needs treating. This corona testing is NOT that at all. It is designed to overcrowd hospitals with people whose life is absolutely not threatened, and it is designed to throw gasoline on the fire which is the idiocy of panicky overreaction to this thing.

America is waking up, though. People are coming around to seeing this shit for what it is, and saying No Mas!

I am willing to bet that significantly less than 1% of people who get a colonoscopy die the next month. Do you want to take that bet?

[bobblehead]

I voted for a President of the United States, not the Premier of China.

Everyone knew not having testing ready was a mistake. The first thing Pence's task force went out to do was to see if they could unscramble the 3M attempt and then promise 1,000,000 kits by the end of the week. C'mon, be serious. Testing is step 1 and they fucked it up. Perhaps it was too late by then. But they paid zero attention to it until coverage started to hurt.

And someone turned down the WHO testing kit in favor of the one CDC was developing. A CDC that was underfunded and had no backup plan.

Every infectious disease expert said the same thing early: a travel ban buys you time with these viruses. They did not use that time effectively.

When your media strategy is to say verifiably false things very loudly to dominate headlines, you are exacerbating, not downplaying your coverage. Its not an unintended consequence, its the intended consequence.

This is the same thing that happens each time. The details are different but the patterns and weak points are the same. The virus is novel, the slow reaction to a known problem isn't. Put it into business friendly terms. The failure to have testing be prioritized and ready to go has meant that closing down society is the one preventative step left that we have to slow progression of serious illness. Its a colossal failure.

I was at the park hours ago walking my dogs. I stay clear of everyone. 20 kids were playing basketball. If their parents are that dumb do you think they would get the kids and themselves tested if they weren't showing symptoms? The story about the guy who took his daughter to some event AFTER he was tested and positive shows the problem. There is nothing the politicians can do about this shit. Having a billion test kits ready to go january 1st would have changed NOTHING.

[bobblehead]

More robust testing earlier lets you quarantine a smaller set of possible carriers and symptomatic. That would reduce the spread. If you know where the trouble is, easier to isolate early and on smaller scale.

Now, we are in a mass quarantine to achieve similar results and slow the spread.

We know where the trouble is. NY. We need a travel ban in and out of that state. Good Luck.

[call_me_ishmael]

I was at the park hours ago walking my dogs. I stay clear of everyone. 20 kids were playing basketball. If their parents are that dumb do you think they would get the kids and themselves tested if they weren't showing symptoms? The story about the guy who took his daughter to some event AFTER he was tested and positive shows the problem. There is nothing the politicians can do about this shit. Having a billion test kits ready to go january 1st would have changed NOTHING.

I am not so sure I agree. People think "this is the flu" or "this is nothing" because of the President's commentary. If he would get on the horn and say "this is very serious, these are the steps were taking, and we're doing a nation wide shut-down for the next 4 weeks. You will be fined 10,000 dollars if you're out in public outside of reasons X, Y, and Z", I believe that would people would take it extremely seriously and lock themselves in (as they should be). It's the lack of federal action, in my opinion, that is making this a "partisan" issue and seeing people violating the social distancing recommendations.

I can tell you that my moron radicalized right wing neighbor keeps walking past my house trying to talk my kids after posting in our neighborhood group about how this is nothing and society is overreacting. What a dumb fucking cunt. My wife gave me the go ahead to spray Raid at her and I absolutely fucking will if she or her little cunty ass pooch Oreo step foot on my soil. You just know a DFC like that is out at every restaurant and store canoodling it up with people spreading germs all over town. Selfish cunt. The only way she'll listen and follow is if Trump himself executes a federal lock-down, since "Tony Evers is in on it too".

[call_me_ishmael]

We know where the trouble is. NY. We need a travel ban in and out of that state. Good Luck.

I mean, it's anywhere where there's dense population and significant testing.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

We know where the trouble is. NY. We need a travel ban in and out of that state. Good Luck.

Wow

[texaspackerbacker]

Another excellent post, Bobblehead.

The kids playing basketball in the park just illustrates what regular people think of the "threat" of this thing - which panic-mongers portray as so bad. A certain major whiner in here likes to claim it is the older people thinking like that, and his side has young ones thinking like them hahahahaha. The tennis court closest to my home got turned into a basketball court - which originally pissed me off, but the fact is, it gets a lot more use now, filled with teens and other young guys especially with no school.

The shithead decision makers don't want people close together in grocery stores, so they let them wait in line outside; That illustrates the logic of the panic-mongers hahahahaha.

New York is what it is because a lot of Europeans came in there before the travel ban. Things are abating in Seattle - I'm told by my son who lives there, mainly because of the earlier ban from China. It will take a little longer in New York.

Excellent take on the test kit thing too, Bobblehead. I guess the only ones who think that way are you, I, and most of the good normal portion of the population.

[mraynrand]

Worth reading for perspective:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-20/coronavirus-pandemic-overshadows-a-deadly-flu-season?context=amp&__twitter_impression=true

[texaspackerbacker]

Gosh, why is that so under-reported? 22,000 deaths, 144 of them kids, just in the U.S., just since last Autumn

I look forward to seeing the comments of the whiner(s) and corona panic-mongers who claim to be so concerned for their kids - literally none of which has died from the corona thing, as well as the asshole who claims to be so full of empathy (he's full of something, all right).

[call_me_ishmael]

Worth reading for perspective:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-20/coronavirus-pandemic-overshadows-a-deadly-flu-season?context=amp&__twitter_impression=true

You obviously don’t have kids in school if you think flu was being ignored. Pewaukee has record absences due to flu this year and sent out literally daily emails about it. I bet Brookfield was the same, Nutz can confirm. It was for sure not ignored. My kid got influenza B - but he was vaccinated prior so it wasn’t so bad beyond 5 days on the couch. My idiot Dad who didn’t get vaccinated was out of work for almost two weeks from it. Amazingly the baby and the two year didn’t get it from the four year old.

[George Cumby]

Gosh. I wonder why?

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

“ Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.”

[bobblehead]

I am not so sure I agree. People think "this is the flu" or "this is nothing" because of the President's commentary. If he would get on the horn and say "this is very serious, these are the steps were taking, and we're doing a nation wide shut-down for the next 4 weeks. You will be fined 10,000 dollars if you're out in public outside of reasons X, Y, and Z", I believe that would people would take it extremely seriously and lock themselves in (as they should be). It's the lack of federal action, in my opinion, that is making this a "partisan" issue and seeing people violating the social distancing recommendations.

I can tell you that my moron radicalized right wing neighbor keeps walking past my house trying to talk my kids after posting in our neighborhood group about how this is nothing and society is overreacting. What a dumb fucking cunt. My wife gave me the go ahead to spray Raid at her and I absolutely fucking will if she or her little cunty ass pooch Oreo step foot on my soil. You just know a DFC like that is out at every restaurant and store canoodling it up with people spreading germs all over town. Selfish cunt. The only way she'll listen and follow is if Trump himself executes a federal lock-down, since "Tony Evers is in on it too".

Stop with the bullshit. I can't get past your first sentence without you taking a shot at the president. People think its not a big deal because they haven't seen anyone they know sick yet. People think its the flu because the media has and will tell any lie to hurt the president and they have zero credibility left. You love to tell me what the president hasn't done, but how about addressing the 12,500 dead from h1n1 under Obama's watch. I don't recall the media or anyone else being upset.

In your very next sentence you want him to become the authoritarian dictator you have accused him of being for 3+ years. Lord help us if your ilk is ever in power during this type of situation. Based on everything I have ever read that you wrote your neighbor is probably a sweetheart of a lady.

[bobblehead]

I mean, it's anywhere where there's dense population and significant testing.

Over half the cases in the nation are in NY.

[bobblehead]

Another excellent post, Bobblehead.

The kids playing basketball in the park just illustrates what regular people think of the "threat" of this thing - which panic-mongers portray as so bad. A certain major whiner in here likes to claim it is the older people thinking like that, and his side has young ones thinking like them hahahahaha. The tennis court closest to my home got turned into a basketball court - which originally pissed me off, but the fact is, it gets a lot more use now, filled with teens and other young guys especially with no school.

The shithead decision makers don't want people close together in grocery stores, so they let them wait in line outside; That illustrates the logic of the panic-mongers hahahahaha.

New York is what it is because a lot of Europeans came in there before the travel ban. Things are abating in Seattle - I'm told by my son who lives there, mainly because of the earlier ban from China. It will take a little longer in New York.

Excellent take on the test kit thing too, Bobblehead. I guess the only ones who think that way are you, I, and most of the good normal portion of the population.

Except I am taking it way more seriously than you are. I do think people should stay away from each other for the time being. I have to walk my dog, but I never get within 10 yards of anyone and I wash my hands the minute I get home. this has a significant kill rate. If we go about like nothing is happening 100's of thousands die. Kids should NOT be playing basketball....even close friends.

[bobblehead]

Gosh. I wonder why?

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

“ Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.”

I don't buy certain numbers from the CDC. If normal flu is .1% and we lose 30k a year on average and we only lost 12.5k to h1n1 which we did virtually nothing to stop and only had 60.8 million cases then something doesn't add up.

Edit: Just looked it up to be sure. H1n1 From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

From that article. So far this season, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded 36 million flu cases in the U.S., with 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths. So this years NORMAL flu has killed almost 2x more people in almost half the cases as H1N1 did...something not adding up. This years normal flu was 3x more deadly than H1N1.

[George Cumby]

Here's something I didn't know:

The 1918 pandemic was H1N1.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

[call_me_ishmael]

Stop with the bullshit. I can't get past your first sentence without you taking a shot at the president.

It's not taking a shot at the President. It's stating a fact. If you work for a company and are concerned about something, but the CEO goes on and on about how you shouldn't worry and expresses candidly and convincingly that there is nothing to worry about, why would you worry? Now apply that to the country, because that's what the CEO of the country did.


People think its not a big deal because they haven't seen anyone they know sick yet. People think its the flu because the media has and will tell any lie to hurt the president and they have zero credibility left. You love to tell me what the president hasn't done, but how about addressing the 12,500 dead from h1n1 under Obama's watch. I don't recall the media or anyone else being upset.

I'm not informed enough about H1N1 to have an opinion. If he was negligent and had all the signs it was coming and going to be a problem and he cavalierly dismissed it and told Americans not to prepare or worry about it, then yes, he absolutely fucked up too. It's not a partisan thing. Obama isn't perfect.

We can agree to disagree on this. I believe Trump downplaying it and comparing to the flu was a major factor in public perception. Note that the media that Trump supporters watch was parroting the same thing until they realized it was serious and changed their tone. This narrative jives with the radicalized right wing "corona tough guy" narrative I see out there. They're nearly identical!


In your very next sentence you want him to become the authoritarian dictator you have accused him of being for 3+ years. Lord help us if your ilk is ever in power during this type of situation. Based on everything I have ever read that you wrote your neighbor is probably a sweetheart of a lady.

I haven't really accused him of being an authoritarian, I have accused him of quid pro quo and more over I've accused Republicans and supporters of selling their soul to support Trump when there's no bottom to his horrendous demeanor and personality. Policy wise I give him a C. Not an F. Not an A. He's done alright.

I want and expect the CEO to lead. This is a federal issue that must be dealt with at the federal level. Again, just my opinion but I think it's crazy he hasn't mobilized major manufacturers to start making masks and equipment. He is relying on their charity to do it, which right, wrong or indifferent is going to get people killed.

To be crystal clear, my neighbor is a crazy loon of an old bird. Radicalized right winger through and through. Blames Obama for everything. Thinks Dems are evil. She didn't even graduate high school. Has no sense of nuance, everything is black and white. Republicans are just and noble, Democrats are evil. That's her view. You two would probably get along tbh. We had a neighborhood association meeting scheduled for this week, and literally everyone cited Trump's guidelines to cancel it saying no gatherings with more than 10 people. This dumb cunt of a woman went on a big rant about how's there's nothing to worry about and this is just the flu, completely embarrassing herself in front of the entire neighborhood. What a chud.

[call_me_ishmael]

Over half the cases in the nation are in NY.

Sure. And >10% of the countries population lives in NYC (I made this up so it very could be wrong). Cook County is what, 20M so NYC has gotta be significantly bigger.

They aren't testing in bumble fuck Kansas. Almost all of the cases are linked to highly populated metropolis zones.

We have no idea where the infected really are because they obviously travel and this spreads like crazy.

[call_me_ishmael]

I don't buy certain numbers from the CDC

And that's where you lose me. The CDC is the best source of info on the situation that we have.

[bobblehead]

Sure. And >10% of the countries population lives in NYC (I made this up so it very could be wrong).

NYC is about 20 million as well. You should really take 5 seconds to use google. Thats about 5.5% of country population and 50% of the cases. 10x more than rest of country.

You ask me to source things, then you make up numbers (admit it even) and expect to be taken seriously.

[call_me_ishmael]

NYC is about 20 million as well. You should really take 5 seconds to use google. Thats about 5.5% of country population and 50% of the cases. 10x more than rest of country.

You ask me to source things, then you make up numbers (admit it even) and expect to be taken seriously.

I know, that was pretty bad, was in a conf call lol!

[texaspackerbacker]

Except I am taking it way more seriously than you are. I do think people should stay away from each other for the time being. I have to walk my dog, but I never get within 10 yards of anyone and I wash my hands the minute I get home. this has a significant kill rate. If we go about like nothing is happening 100's of thousands die. Kids should NOT be playing basketball....even close friends.

I respect you taking the middle ground here. Avoiding getting it, sure, is a consideration, especially for supposedly high risk people, and for that, the precautions are a good idea. Where I disagree with you, though, is the kill rate/risk of death among young people and/or healthy people of almost any age. Those kids should be playing basketball if they feel like it because even if they do catch it, it's not gonna do them any significant harm anyway. Ditto that for schools, stores, factories, and absolutely sports events - which never shoulda been shut down.

Cuomo - who has been a Dem with the closest thing to good sense that any of them have shown in this mess - says he thinks 40-80% of New Yorkers will catch corona. That's 8-16 million people. 1%+ death rate which they are pushing would be 80-160,000 deaths in that state alone. Now CMI might believe crap like that, but tell me you don't. Even if the rate getting the virus was that much, I wouldn't expect even 1% of the 1% the panic-mongers project (800-1,600). And who would those be? Same as other places, people who are already at death's doorstep now. Maybe a kid with a sick granny at home shouldn't be playing basketball and take it home to her, but anybody else? Go for it and do what you can to enjoy life. And even the case of the at-risk granny, it should be her quarantined, not the rest of her family.

[bobblehead]

I'm not informed enough about H1N1 to have an opinion. If he was negligent and had all the signs it was coming and going to be a problem and he cavalierly dismissed it and told Americans not to prepare or worry about it, then yes, he absolutely fucked up too. It's not a partisan thing. Obama isn't perfect.

.

But the partisan thing was the media and even the CDC. Their was a lot of hoopla about it being so nasty and all, but after the fact CDC numbers claim it was 4.5x LESS deadly than normal flu. I'm simply not buying it. Starting to buy into tex way of thinking. Numbers at the moment have Wuhan flu at 1.1% kill rate in U.S. So its 40x as deadly as previous "scary virsu".

So tex, to put into perspective since you aren't worried. If a normal 30 million people got this thing (if we did nothing) 330k people would die. So its not just the media, the threat is real. And Ismael....the media lies. The CDC is partisan. This doesn't have a "3-4%" death rate that was the early media hype. It wouldn't be a pandemic wiping out millions as the media made it out to be. As I said all along the truth lies in the middle.

[call_me_ishmael]

But the partisan thing was the media and even the CDC. Their was a lot of hoopla about it being so nasty and all, but after the fact CDC numbers claim it was 4.5x LESS deadly than normal flu. I'm simply not buying it. Starting to buy into tex way of thinking. Numbers at the moment have Wuhan flu at 1.1% kill rate in U.S. So its 40x as deadly as previous "scary virsu".

So tex, to put into perspective since you aren't worried. If a normal 30 million people got this thing (if we did nothing) 330k people would die. So its not just the media, the threat is real. And Ismael....the media lies. The CDC is partisan. This doesn't have a "3-4%" death rate that was the early media hype. It wouldn't be a pandemic wiping out millions as the media made it out to be. As I said all along the truth lies in the middle.

The CDC isn't the media. They don't know the rate yet. They gave a range. It will probably/hopefully go lower over time. I do not believe the CDC lies.

[bobblehead]

I respect you taking the middle ground here. Avoiding getting it, sure, is a consideration, especially for supposedly high risk people, and for that, the precautions are a good idea. Where I disagree with you, though, is the kill rate/risk of death among young people and/or healthy people of almost any age. Those kids should be playing basketball if they feel like it because even if they do catch it, it's not gonna do them any significant harm anyway. Ditto that for schools, stores, factories, and absolutely sports events - which never shoulda been shut down.

Cuomo - who has been a Dem with the closest thing to good sense that any of them have shown in this mess - says he thinks 40-80% of New Yorkers will catch corona. That's 8-16 million people. 1%+ death rate which they are pushing would be 80-160,000 deaths in that state alone. Now CMI might believe crap like that, but tell me you don't. Even if the rate getting the virus was that much, I wouldn't expect even 1% of the 1% the panic-mongers project (800-1,600). And who would those be? Same as other places, people who are already at death's doorstep now. Maybe a kid with a sick granny at home shouldn't be playing basketball and take it home to her, but anybody else? Go for it and do what you can to enjoy life. And even the case of the at-risk granny, it should be her quarantined, not the rest of her family.

2 things you still don't get. 1) Rudy Gobert is a finely tuned athlete in his prime and has lost his sense of smell and taste from this virus. Lord only knows the long term lung damage. He is not "at high risk" 2) If we let everyone run wild and get it then the old and the infirm will get a ton more exposure and it will become impossible for them to avoid. Medications will run low and otherwise "low risk" people won't be able to get care and they will have complications as well.

[bobblehead]

The CDC isn't the media. They don't know the rate yet. They gave a range. It will probably/hopefully go lower over time. I do not believe the CDC lies.

But I have shown you numbers that don't compute. As I always say, sourcing is pointless with you.

[LEWCWA]

We know where the trouble is. NY. We need a travel ban in and out of that state. Good Luck.

lol a month ago it was WA state. The rest of the country is starting to see the uptick....hopefully other places won't be as bad as they are less congested and maybe had a head start on prevention measures....

[texaspackerbacker]

CMI, you stated "I'm not informed enough about H1N1 to have an opinion. If he was negligent and had all the signs it was coming and going to be a problem and he cavalierly dismissed it and told Americans not to prepare or worry about it, then yes, he absolutely fucked up too. It's not a partisan thing. Obama isn't perfect." Far be it from me to defend (description deleted because this isn't FYI) Obama, but I absolutely disagree with what you're saying here for the same reasons I absolutely disagree with the panicky shit that has been inflicted on America in the present.

I barely noticed that H1N1 outbreak that killed 12-13,000 people or similar numbers every year or the 22,000 regular flu victims supposedly since last Autumn. It's safe to say America barely noticed those things because we did not have our lives artificially turned upside down like now. Life went on - as well it should have, as well it should be doing right now.

The cure absolutely has been worse than the disease now. Obama blundered into doing the right thing/not doing the horrendously wrong thing. Trump has been listening to all the wrong people about this. There is about 5 days left in this 15 day thing. I think or at least strongly hope that about 5 days from now, the message is gonna turn around completely from forced sacrifice and suffering to "let's get back to normalcy". I can just imagine the stink you and other panic-mongers will raise if/when that happens hahahahahaha,

[texaspackerbacker]

But I have shown you numbers that don't compute. As I always say, sourcing is pointless with you.

Just asking ...... if those death numbers - the 22,000 this flu season for example and similar numbers other years meant death from all kinds of flu, in other words, H1N1 being a subset of the whole thing, would the figures then ring true? I hate to ever agree with CMI hahahahaha, but I also doubt the CDC intentionally lies about numbers. It's too easy to check.

[LEWCWA]

I was at the park hours ago walking my dogs. I stay clear of everyone. 20 kids were playing basketball. If their parents are that dumb do you think they would get the kids and themselves tested if they weren't showing symptoms? The story about the guy who took his daughter to some event AFTER he was tested and positive shows the problem. There is nothing the politicians can do about this shit. Having a billion test kits ready to go january 1st would have changed NOTHING.

I understand this is your opinion, but that is a big part of the problem, you phrase it like it is fact. Thing is the guy who is supposed to be leading the charge in this is doing the same things. He states opinions daily as facts, his attention span compare to that of a kindergarten student...One day this is nothing and the few cases will be down to close to 0 next week, I saved countless lives banning travel from China, Uh oh this is getting pretty bad lets follow cdc guidelines to slow this thing down, hmmm the "cure" is now worse than the disease, and so on and so on. He is all over the map and his people are afraid to step on his toes when he floats opinion and fallacy.

You know at the end of the day I would have more respect for him if he had just dug his heals in and stayed his first course come hell or high water. The leader doesn't lead.

[LEWCWA]

[QUOTE=bobblehead;1052865]I don't buy certain numbers from the CDC. If normal flu is .1% and we lose 30k a year on average and we only lost 12.5k to h1n1 which we did virtually nothing to stop and only had 60.8 million cases then something doesn't add up.

Edit: Just looked it up to be sure. H1n1 From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

From that article. So far this season, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded 36 million flu cases in the U.S., with 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths. So this years NORMAL flu has killed almost 2x more people in almost half the cases as H1N1 did...something not adding up. This years normal flu was 3x more deadly than H1N1.[/QUOTE

As far as I understand- correct me if I'm wrong-- H1N1 is now part of our seasonal flu cocktail.

[mraynrand]

I understand this is your opinion, but that is a big part of the problem, you phrase it like it is fact. Thing is the guy who is supposed to be leading the charge in this is doing the same things. He states opinions daily as facts, his attention span compare to that of a kindergarten student...One day this is nothing and the few cases will be down to close to 0 next week, I saved countless lives banning travel from China, Uh oh this is getting pretty bad lets follow cdc guidelines to slow this thing down, hmmm the "cure" is now worse than the disease, and so on and so on. He is all over the map and his people are afraid to step on his toes when he floats opinion and fallacy.

These critiques are reasonable but...


You know at the end of the day I would have more respect for him if he had just dug his heals in and stayed his first course come hell or high water.

I don't believe this for a second. You'd be all over him. :)

[mraynrand]

But the partisan thing was the media and even the CDC. Their was a lot of hoopla about it being so nasty and all, but after the fact CDC numbers claim it was 4.5x LESS deadly than normal flu. I'm simply not buying it. Starting to buy into tex way of thinking. Numbers at the moment have Wuhan flu at 1.1% kill rate in U.S. So its 40x as deadly as previous "scary virsu".

So tex, to put into perspective since you aren't worried. If a normal 30 million people got this thing (if we did nothing) 330k people would die. So its not just the media, the threat is real. And Ismael....the media lies. The CDC is partisan. This doesn't have a "3-4%" death rate that was the early media hype. It wouldn't be a pandemic wiping out millions as the media made it out to be. As I said all along the truth lies in the middle.

The projected infections and death are based on modeling which assumes: where and when the virus originated, infection rate (which assumes things about weather and infectious nature of this class of viruses, but not necessarily this virus), mortality rates, no significant mutation to more or less virulent or deadly versions. The modeling software is over 15 years old (there was a fight on the internet about getting the code, which is in some old version of C. People were skeptical about retrieving it and the author was saying he would have to work with specific groups to retrieve it. Then some language I didn't quite understand about 'codecs', etc. which I assume makes the code readable by newer OSs). Whatever. Modeling always makes me nervous, because the only satisfactory modeling I've worked with has the known outcome as a test. And in this case, there are unknowns that were assumed which are changing as more data comes in.

[George Cumby]

The projected infections and death are based on modeling which assumes: where and when the virus originated, infection rate (which assumes things about weather and infectious nature of this class of viruses, but not necessarily this virus), mortality rates, no significant mutation to more or less virulent or deadly versions. The modeling software is over 15 years old (there was a fight on the internet about getting the code, which is in some old version of C. People were skeptical about retrieving it and the author was saying he would have to work with specific groups to retrieve it. Then some language I didn't quite understand about 'codecs', etc. which I assume makes the code readable by newer OSs). Whatever. Modeling always makes me nervous, because the only satisfactory modeling I've worked with has the known outcome as a test. And in this case, there are unknowns that were assumed which are changing as more data comes in.

Fair point on the modeling.

But can we not look at the current growth curves and extrapolate from there? Pretty concerning.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Fosco33]

‘Regular’ flu is actually many different strains (including h1n1). There are typically two main types with many varieties.

The flu vaccine year to year is a guess based on other countries and their projections. Some years it’s more effective than others.

Social distancing does work. Every year the flu is knocked back a bit with kids out of school. Humidity helps our natural immune response as well. So - at the end of this cycle (before it comes back) - it’s be idiotic to say this is the mortality rate. Because the underlying assumption is full/normal activities. Just wash your hands and stay away from high risk folks and work/public places if you’re definitely sick.... like normal.

My wife’s uncle had a death in his family from covid in Cali - 60s, lifetime vegetarian and homeopathic ‘doctor’. He didn’t take the fever/cough seriously enough and went to hospital too late.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Went to Walmart this morning at 6am for the 'old folks' shopping hour so I could as Walmart put it, avoid the crowds. Well, they were packed, lined up outdoors like sardines. Lotsa old people in Rhinelander I guess...

[George Cumby]

Went to Walmart this morning at 6am for the 'old folks' shopping hour so I could as Walmart put it, avoid the crowds. Well, they were packed, lined up outdoors like sardines. Lotsa old people in Rhinelander I guess...

Did you stay or did you go?

[Zool]

Did you stay or did you go?

He was undecided. He was worried about trouble, and also about it being doubled.

[mraynrand]

Fair point on the modeling.

But can we not look at the current growth curves and extrapolate from there? Pretty concerning.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That's a good point too, so it should be possible to map back on the original model and say whether it's following predicted rates so as to allow for model adjustment. I'd like to see someone do this for Italy SK and maybe even Germany as the number of deaths/day is no longer rising, suggesting top of the bell curve. (still, for Italy you have to separate out co-morbidity deaths, because Italy scores a death as corona if the postmortem shows an infection, even if the cause of death might be something else).

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Did you stay or did you go?

Didn't get in line, but went in and got my supply of cookies :) The very weird thing was I saw lots of people wearing masks. I mean, honestly, I never thought I would see that here.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

That's a good point too, so it should be possible to map back on the original model and say whether it's following predicted rates so as to allow for model adjustment. I'd like to see someone do this for Italy SK and maybe even Germany as the number of deaths/day is no longer rising, suggesting top of the bell curve. (still, for Italy you have to separate out co-morbidity deaths, because Italy scores a death as corona if the postmortem shows an infection, even if the cause of death might be something else).

But I think I just saw something to the effect that Italy just had their 2nd worst day ever today, so not sure they are top of the bell. As far as dead people who were infected but death caused by something else, I think that may be splitting hairs.

[George Cumby]

Sigmoid curves not belll, I think.

[mraynrand]

But I think I just saw something to the effect that Italy just had their 2nd worst day ever today, so not sure they are top of the bell. As far as dead people who were infected but death caused by something else, I think that may be splitting hairs.

Well, it may be wrong, but it's not splitting hairs. 45% of the dead counted as corona deaths had 3 other illnesses. So it's entirely possible that they died of from one or more of those illnesses.

[mraynrand]

Sigmoid curves not belll, I think.

sure

[mraynrand]

This is an Oxford study which is the model I was proposing several days ago, based on reports of very high transmission. If the virus is highly transmissible, it's very likely a lot more people are already infected.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b



Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.

The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Well, it may be wrong, but it's not splitting hairs. 45% of the dead counted as corona deaths had 3 other illnesses. So it's entirely possible that they died of from one or more of those illnesses.

But isn't the fact they had other conditions just putting them in a higher risk factor for coronavirus? I think it is a stretch they died of one of their other conditions, but more along the lines of coronavirus killed them because they had the other conditions. At least, that is what I am seeing reported by the medical dudes in other countries. But this is not a battle I want to fight, you may be right.

[hoosier]

This is an Oxford study which is the model I was proposing several days ago, based on reports of very high transmission. If the virus is highly transmissible, it's very likely a lot more people are already infected.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

That's a nice, reassuring hypothesis but how does it explain the sudden skyrocketing numbers in places like Washington and NYC?

[mraynrand]

That's a nice, reassuring hypothesis but how does it explain the sudden skyrocketing numbers in places like Washington and NYC?

Yeah, that’s the problem. Testing should pick up lots of cases but severe and lethal cases shouldn’t be as high. Not good.

[LEWCWA]

These critiques are reasonable but...



I don't believe this for a second. You'd be all over him. :)

I would disagree, but I would at least respect he had certain conviction....I can disagree with you vehemently and still respect your opinion is different than mine....I readily admit that just letting this thing run it's course like Tex believes is a viable opinion, I just think it is wrong. At least until you can show me that we have peaked and have some idea what kind of numbers we are really dealing with.....I don't think we really have a clue as of yet...

[Fosco33]

Do the models account for 3-5 day test backlogs. Once we are in 24hr turns - the models will be ‘cleaner’. Some of this ‘skyrocketing’ is just backlog reduction. Look for the weekly trends as much as daily...

[mraynrand]

From the same country that gave you corona, now comes a new bird flu. Enjoy!

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200203/China-reports-H5N1-bird-flu-in-Hunan-amid-coronavirus-crisis.aspx

[mraynrand]

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30229968/

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30229968/

Isn't it weird that everybody was saying wearing a mask did not help when we had a shortage of masks? :)

[George Cumby]

Every photo from China during this shows every one wearing a mask.

Hmm.

[mraynrand]

Isn't it weird that everybody was saying wearing a mask did not help when we had a shortage of masks? :)

Well that was before knowing the extent. It’s not generally gonna help you to wear a mask. But when there’s a widespread illness that appears to be infectious for a sig period before symptoms or even without symptoms, stopping those people from splattering on you makes sense.

[bobblehead]

Just asking ...... if those death numbers - the 22,000 this flu season for example and similar numbers other years meant death from all kinds of flu, in other words, H1N1 being a subset of the whole thing, would the figures then ring true? I hate to ever agree with CMI hahahahaha, but I also doubt the CDC intentionally lies about numbers. It's too easy to check.

If 60.8 million were infected and only 12.5k died, the numbers don't compute in any universe. H1N1 is more deadly than the normal flu. At a minimum 60.8k should have died if 60.8 million were infected (60,800,000 X .001). They either lied about the infected or the dead....or give me another valid reason the deadly virus was 4.5x less deadly than seasonal flu.

[bobblehead]

Here's something I didn't know:

The 1918 pandemic was H1N1.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

the 1918 influenza was avian in origin, it can't be the same as 2009 swine flu. I admit to being confused.

[bobblehead]

I understand this is your opinion, but that is a big part of the problem, you phrase it like it is fact. Thing is the guy who is supposed to be leading the charge in this is doing the same things. He states opinions daily as facts, his attention span compare to that of a kindergarten student...One day this is nothing and the few cases will be down to close to 0 next week, I saved countless lives banning travel from China, Uh oh this is getting pretty bad lets follow cdc guidelines to slow this thing down, hmmm the "cure" is now worse than the disease, and so on and so on. He is all over the map and his people are afraid to step on his toes when he floats opinion and fallacy.

You know at the end of the day I would have more respect for him if he had just dug his heals in and stayed his first course come hell or high water. The leader doesn't lead.

All opinions are phrased as fact. I thought you were sharp enough to realize when I say testing would have done nothing you know you are reading an opinion. Its a logic based opinion that I backed up with fact though. Even people diagnosed refuse to self quarantine. It happened before and it always will. That is a fact. You could have tested the entire nation and maybe it helps some. But in the end, its also not realistic to test everyone who is asymptomatic. NOT POSSIBLE. First you need everyone to cooperate. Second, up to 30% of people are asymptomatic. That means a lot of people are going to ignore any form or quarantine because they wouldn't bother getting tested.
Proof:
https://time.com/3548847/kaci-hickox-ebola-nurse-quarantine-bike-ride/
SHE IS A FUCKING NURSE!!!

[bobblehead]

I don't buy certain numbers from the CDC. If normal flu is .1% and we lose 30k a year on average and we only lost 12.5k to h1n1 which we did virtually nothing to stop and only had 60.8 million cases then something doesn't add up.

Edit: Just looked it up to be sure. H1n1 From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

From that article. So far this season, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded 36 million flu cases in the U.S., with 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths. So this years NORMAL flu has killed almost 2x more people in almost half the cases as H1N1 did...something not adding up. This years normal flu was 3x more deadly than H1N1.

As far as I understand- correct me if I'm wrong-- H1N1 is now part of our seasonal flu cocktail.

don't care. they said 60.8 million were infected. The cocktail failed on them. if they got it. .1% (or more from h1n1) should have died. It would be different if they never got it.

[George Cumby]

the 1918 influenza was avian in origin, it can't be the same as 2009 swine flu. I admit to being confused.

Looks like the CDC needs to edit their article:

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(avian-and-other-zoonotic)

"Humans can be infected with avian, swine and other zoonotic influenza viruses, such as avian influenza virus subtypes A(H5N1), A(H7N9), and A(H9N2) and swine influenza virus subtypes A(H1N1), A(H1N2) and A(H3N2)."

[bobblehead]

Now, i just want to put forth a nice conspiracy theory. I will follow with a post that might back it up a touch.

https://www.redstate.com/stu-in-sd/2020/03/16/wuhan-virus-and-bioweapons-the-past-is-prologue/

From the article (this is one educated guys theory based on everything he read...its not fact, but it has a lot of fact to back it up):
"There are two different coronaviruses. One is extremely deadly, the other is much less deadly, killing only 1-3%, and mostly old people.

Both of the viruses were manufactured in the Chinese germ warfare lab in Wuhan, China. One of the viruses contains proteins from the HIV-1 (AIDS) virus. The other doesn’t. The HIV proteins were independently discovered by a virology lab in India, and then several weeks later by a lab in the US. In both cases the discovery was quickly withdrawn or “debunked”. Why? In the first case the news was squelched by the Chinese State News Agency complaining to the government of India (i.e., for international relations). In the second case other labs were looking at the virus type that does not contain HIV proteins, when they did not know there were two types.

What happened? The more deadly virus got loose in Wuhan in December 2019. The Chinese government reacted with extreme force that could only be applied by a totalitarian government. They quarantined over 20 million people. Travel was frozen. They rounded up and sequestered anybody who had a fever. Bodies were burned night and day in the crematories for two weeks — many thousands of bodies; we may never know how many, but smoke filled the air for miles downwind. The less deadly virus was quickly released and deliberately spread by Chinese agents as quickly as possible in China, and perhaps even in other countries as well. Why? The less deadly version of the virus gives immunity to the more deadly version, just like cowpox gives immunity to smallpox. By releasing and spreading the less deadly version the Chinese were protecting the majority of their people, and actually protecting people all over the world, from the more deadly version.

The germ warfare tactic would have been to release the less deadly version in China first, let most of the Chinese people get infected and cured, and then to release the more deadly version on their enemies. That would preserve the majority of Chinese while killing the majority of their enemies, and probably the rest of the world. Then China would own the world. I believe it is a fortuitous act of God that the virus got loose.

At first it was theorized that the HIV proteins that were added to the deadly version would transmit AIDS. That is wrong. The COVID-19 version containing HIV-1 proteins does not transmit AIDS. The function of the HIV proteins is, like AIDS does, to delay the body’s immune system response to the virus until the virus spreads more completely throughout the lungs. A Japanese virologist discovered that, like most corona and flu viruses, temperatures as low as 80 deg. F kill the virus. Organ damage can occur as well by having less oxygen in the blood. When the body’s immune system finally recognizes that the body has been invaded by the more deadly type, it over reacts. It is the over-reaction of the body’s own immune system that kills, and that is true with either type of COVID-19 coronavirus, just more so with the more deadly type. The more deadly virus solicits a delayed and more violent reaction from the body’s own immune system.

It is very fortunate for us that the less deadly version of the virus is spreading rapidly in America because the less deadly version of the virus gives immunity to the more deadly version. It is highly likely that people will contract this version and not even know they have it, but it will provide them with immunity to the more deadly strain. Divine intervention!"

[bobblehead]

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/24/21-million-chinese-cellphone-users-disappear-in-three-months-of-pandemic/

If you hate Breitbart, this is widely reported. They are simply sourcing from another website. The main sources for this are from chinese phone companies public records.

Edit: Since most won't click, I forgot the tell you the relevant information: Over 21 MILLION cell phone accounts have disappeared since December. That is in a country that has had an increasing number for years.

When this broke out I had a friend in Thailand. He had trouble getting back. When he did he showed me videos circulating around asia of people dropping in the street in convulsions and surrounded by hazmat suits within seconds. I thought they were fake/doctored/bullshit. I still don't know the whole truth, but everything I have seen leads me to believe the conspiracy theory. The reports of wuhan burning bodies day and night that I heard before I ever stumbled onto this. Remember I live in Las Vegas and we have a heavy chinese population. many of my acquaintances have relative in mainland china. I also wonder if what Italy and Iran is dealing with is virus 1 and 2 combination. One more article to back up that.

https://www.redstate.com/elizabeth-vaughn/2020/03/19/its-no-coincidence-that-italy-and-iran-have-been-so-hard-hit-by-the-wuhan-virus/

Note, this isn't the same author as either of the other pieces. This is just me reading a lot of fact and tying it together for a nice fat conspiracy theory. Ok, taking off my tin hat now.

[mraynrand]

From the article (this is one educated guys theory based on everything he read...its not fact, but it has a lot of fact to back it up):
"There are two different coronaviruses. One is extremely deadly, the other is much less deadly, killing only 1-3%, and mostly old people.

Both of the viruses were manufactured in the Chinese germ warfare lab in Wuhan, China. One of the viruses contains proteins from the HIV-1 (AIDS) virus. The other doesn’t. The HIV proteins were independently discovered by a virology lab in India, and then several weeks later by a lab in the US. In both cases the discovery was quickly withdrawn or “debunked”. Why? In the first case the news was squelched by the Chinese State News Agency complaining to the government of India (i.e., for international relations). In the second case other labs were looking at the virus type that does not contain HIV proteins, when they did not know there were two types.


I looked at that paper from India. The sequence had the mutation that increases binding to ACE2 receptor, which is what makes the virus able to get into human (lung) cells. The paper claimed that the sequences were from HIV and gag pol proteins, but the method they used was grossly inappropriate. They used small stretches of protein sequence to query a database, so that the search wasn't robust and basically pulled up millions of hits (i repeated it and yep, that's what it did, as expected). Since the databases are filled with HIV and gag pol sequences, that's what you get.

Still, the virus IS a mutated virus, and it continues to mutate. And early on, there were two dominant forms running around, but I was pretty certain they were common in the ACE2 binding region, suggesting they would have similar infectivity.

Still, it's possible such strains were selected for in a lab; it'd not hard to do. But it looks like they exist in (at least) the bat population, so most likely it jumped over.

[George Cumby]

I looked at that paper from India. The sequence had the mutation that increases binding to ACE2 receptor, which is what makes the virus able to get into human (lung) cells. The paper claimed that the sequences were from HIV and gag pol proteins, but the method they used was grossly inappropriate. They used small stretches of protein sequence to query a database, so that the search wasn't robust and basically pulled up millions of hits (i repeated it and yep, that's what it did, as expected). Since the databases are filled with HIV and gag pol sequences, that's what you get.

Still, the virus IS a mutated virus, and it continues to mutate. And early on, there were two dominant forms running around, but I was pretty certain they were common in the ACE2 binding region, suggesting they would have similar infectivity.

Still, it's possible such strains were selected for in a lab; it'd not hard to do. But it looks like they exist in (at least) the bat population, so most likely it jumped over.

Good post.

[LEWCWA]

All opinions are phrased as fact. I thought you were sharp enough to realize when I say testing would have done nothing you know you are reading an opinion. Its a logic based opinion that I backed up with fact though. Even people diagnosed refuse to self quarantine. It happened before and it always will. That is a fact. You could have tested the entire nation and maybe it helps some. But in the end, its also not realistic to test everyone who is asymptomatic. NOT POSSIBLE. First you need everyone to cooperate. Second, up to 30% of people are asymptomatic. That means a lot of people are going to ignore any form or quarantine because they wouldn't bother getting tested.
Proof:
https://time.com/3548847/kaci-hickox-ebola-nurse-quarantine-bike-ride/
SHE IS A FUCKING NURSE!!!

Don't disagree....I did say, I realize it was an opinion. I was equating this kind of communication to other really.....Some dip shits in AZ found a chloroquine derivative in some koi fish shit and took it. Based on Trump....one I know is dead, the other critical....I know you can't fix stupid, but how you relay info matters....

[texaspackerbacker]

And an idiot like you blames Trump? Because that fits your sick agenda? Sheeeesh.

Blame the damn Chicoms - Bobblehead's post above, far-fetched that it is, is more believable.

[George Cumby]

No question the Chinese wet markets allowed the cross-over between species.

No question Trump has bungled the US response:

https://i.redd.it/vrw6m26yojn41.png

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch7_t2Ri2Zg&feature=youtu.be

[falco]

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/24/21-million-chinese-cellphone-users-disappear-in-three-months-of-pandemic/

If you hate Breitbart, this is widely reported. They are simply sourcing from another website. The main sources for this are from chinese phone companies public records.

Edit: Since most won't click, I forgot the tell you the relevant information: Over 21 MILLION cell phone accounts have disappeared since December. That is in a country that has had an increasing number for years.

When this broke out I had a friend in Thailand. He had trouble getting back. When he did he showed me videos circulating around asia of people dropping in the street in convulsions and surrounded by hazmat suits within seconds. I thought they were fake/doctored/bullshit. I still don't know the whole truth, but everything I have seen leads me to believe the conspiracy theory. The reports of wuhan burning bodies day and night that I heard before I ever stumbled onto this. Remember I live in Las Vegas and we have a heavy chinese population. many of my acquaintances have relative in mainland china. I also wonder if what Italy and Iran is dealing with is virus 1 and 2 combination. One more article to back up that.

https://www.redstate.com/elizabeth-vaughn/2020/03/19/its-no-coincidence-that-italy-and-iran-have-been-so-hard-hit-by-the-wuhan-virus/

Note, this isn't the same author as either of the other pieces. This is just me reading a lot of fact and tying it together for a nice fat conspiracy theory. Ok, taking off my tin hat now.

thanks for this Bobblehead. I was taking your posts seriously up til now

[call_me_ishmael]

For fucks sake.

[bobblehead]

thanks for this Bobblehead. I was taking your posts seriously up til now

could you tell me what it is about this post that made you realize what a complete idiot I am?

Edit: I have to take it a step further. The post that you seem to take issue with is the only one filled with nothing but absolute fact. Not even disputable. 21 million less cell phone contracts than Nov 31st. Italy and Iran sold out a lot of infrastructure to China and had a high volume Chinese workers that added to their outbreak and hastened it. That this is what makes you not take me seriously says volumes about you.

[call_me_ishmael]

could you tell me what it is about this post that made you realize what a complete idiot I am?

lol you serious now?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_2019–20_coronavirus_ pandemic#Chinese_biological_weapon

[mraynrand]

I know this is anecdotal, but read deep into this thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarpeDonktum/status/1242976031276961797

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

I know this is anecdotal, but read deep into this thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarpeDonktum/status/1242976031276961797

The first thing I noticed is this is almost a pro-trump blog, and from what I am seeing, this hoax conspiracy thing seems to be splitting along party lines. And isn't a lock down supposed to be preventative? So not seeing coronavirus in your particular area (yet?) does not really prove anything, certainly not that it is a hoax, or a democratic conspiracy. There is just too much evidence to the contrary. The other thing the twitter feed did was illustrate why it is so difficult to slow/stop a pandemic, and why sometimes force (mandated lock downs and somethimes actual force) is needed, as many many people believe what they want to believe.

[Fosco33]

If trump decides to say maybe the earth is flat - 90% of people on that twitter thread would start believing.

[mraynrand]

The first thing I noticed is this is almost a pro-trump blog, and from what I am seeing, this hoax conspiracy thing seems to be splitting along party lines. And isn't a lock down supposed to be preventative? So not seeing coronavirus in your particular area (yet?) does not really prove anything, certainly not that it is a hoax, or a democratic conspiracy. There is just too much evidence to the contrary. The other thing the twitter feed did was illustrate why it is so difficult to slow/stop a pandemic, and why sometimes force (mandated lock downs and somethimes actual force) is needed, as many many people believe what they want to believe.

I didn’t care about the politics just the observations that people aren’t seeing much of anything. That’s also true in my community which is among the most left leaning congressional districts in the nation.

[mraynrand]

If trump decides to say maybe the earth is flat - 90% of people on that twitter thread would start believing.

This is true. Just as we’d exonerate him if he gunned someone down in cold blood on 5th Avenue. Conservatives forgive felonies so long as they’re committed by our guy.

[bobblehead]

If trump decides to say maybe the earth is flat - 90% of people on that twitter thread would start believing.

If Trump declared the earth to be round 90% of the people on the left would hysterically declare it to be flat. The media would immediately have experts on declaring how dangerous it is for the president to be saying things like this. Nancy would impeach him for defying the church.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

I didn’t care about the politics just the observations that people aren’t seeing much of anything. That’s also true in my community which is among the most left leaning congressional districts in the nation.

Yeah, I was not making a statement on the politics per se, just giving you comments from the twitter feed you referenced. Another thing I am noticing from other forums, and I guess this is another human failing, is if somebody has a different opinion, that person is now the enemy. I can assure you that is not my intent when I state my opinion on this forum.

[Fosco33]

If Trump declared the earth to be round 90% of the people on the left would hysterically declare it to be flat. The media would immediately have experts on declaring how dangerous it is for the president to be saying things like this. Nancy would impeach him for defying the church.

�� nice!

For sure Idocracy is our shared human condition

[mraynrand]

Yeah, I was not making a statement on the politics per se, just giving you comments from the twitter feed you referenced. Another thing I am noticing from other forums, and I guess this is another human failing, is if somebody has a different opinion, that person is now the enemy. I can assure you that is not my intent when I state my opinion on this forum.

I am the enemy of the people.

Wait, I meant ‘envy’

[mraynrand]

Someone just ran the numbers this morning:

"He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick."
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1243134237773107200

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

"expert predicts"

[call_me_ishmael]

If Trump declared the earth to be round 90% of the people on the left would hysterically declare it to be flat. The media would immediately have experts on declaring how dangerous it is for the president to be saying things like this. Nancy would impeach him for defying the church.

This is so stupid and obviously false.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Someone just ran the numbers this morning:

"He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick."
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1243134237773107200

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

"expert predicts"

Soylent green! Loosely based on the novel 'make room'.

[texaspackerbacker]

If Trump declared the earth to be round 90% of the people on the left would hysterically declare it to be flat. The media would immediately have experts on declaring how dangerous it is for the president to be saying things like this. Nancy would impeach him for defying the church.

And some on the good side of things would probably quibble that it's more like 98% round.

[texaspackerbacker]

This is true. Just as we’d exonerate him if he gunned someone down in cold blood on 5th Avenue. Conservatives forgive felonies so long as they’re committed by our guy.

hahahahaha I thought you weren't a pragmatist ....... or was this more of your famous s word again?

[mraynrand]

hahahahaha I thought you weren't a pragmatist ....... or was this more of your famous s word again?

Look what sarcasm reveals!

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

So when Gov Evers declared all 'non-essential' businesses shut down, I expected a ghost town the next day but many many businesses were still open even some that I would never expect to be essential. One was a company that recycles/salvages wood products and then resells for new construction/remodels. Go figure...

[texaspackerbacker]

The first thing I noticed is this is almost a pro-trump blog, and from what I am seeing, this hoax conspiracy thing seems to be splitting along party lines. And isn't a lock down supposed to be preventative? So not seeing coronavirus in your particular area (yet?) does not really prove anything, certainly not that it is a hoax, or a democratic conspiracy. There is just too much evidence to the contrary. The other thing the twitter feed did was illustrate why it is so difficult to slow/stop a pandemic, and why sometimes force (mandated lock downs and somethimes actual force) is needed, as many many people believe what they want to believe.

Who in here do you see claiming that it is a "hoax"? Bobblehead suggested that maybe it resulted from Chicom bioweapon experimentation ....... far-fetched, but Communism being what it is, not unbelievable. Rand and Howard probably haven't been as adamant as I have, but they definitely have talked about the mildness of the corona thing, both in an absolute sense and in comparison to other things that have clearly killed a lot more with a whole lot less fanfare and forced sacrifice and suffering. We are the ones speaking common sense and normalcy. If you see a political divide here (and even that isn't 100% - a couple of non-leftists in here are about as misguided as the bad guys), it is the usual suspects - leftist shitheads - hoping against desperate hope that this thing would drag down Trump.

Nobody is saying the virus itself is a "hoax". A lot of people are getting it; Some old sick people are dying from it. That doesn't fit the definition of "hoax". The overreaction, though, is clear and obvious. And one side definitely doesn't mind having Good Normal Americans sacrificing and suffering - after all, We are the ones who elected the guy they hate so much.

[mraynrand]

So when Gov Evers declared all 'non-essential' businesses shut down, I expected a ghost town the next day but many many businesses were still open even some that I would never expect to be essential. One was a company that recycles/salvages wood products and then resells for new construction/remodels. Go figure...

The Ohio shut down document had so many exceptions it was much more useful as toilet paper.

[LEWCWA]

The Ohio shut down document had so many exceptions it was much more useful as toilet paper.

lol- no kidding, when liquor stores are deemed essential, it is nothing more than window dressing. I guess, maybe the liquor is needed to keep people sane what do I know.

[Bretsky]

Do you not understand? All of that doesn't matter. Those people in virtually every case could have lived their lives in a normal stress-free except for a few minor cold symptoms and usually not even that. All of this modification of behavior shit and sacrifice, and for what? You don't think sniffles and a low grade cough for a few days is less harmful? Yeah, I suppose you do not hahahahaha.

It's disgusting that otherwise generally sensible people are buying into this silliness.



Just curious if you know anybody who has come down with this Tex

It's way way worse than how you describe it

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Who in here do you see claiming that it is a "hoax"? Bobblehead suggested that maybe it resulted from Chicom bioweapon experimentation ....... far-fetched, but Communism being what it is, not unbelievable. Rand and Howard probably haven't been as adamant as I have, but they definitely have talked about the mildness of the corona thing, both in an absolute sense and in comparison to other things that have clearly killed a lot more with a whole lot less fanfare and forced sacrifice and suffering. We are the ones speaking common sense and normalcy. If you see a political divide here (and even that isn't 100% - a couple of non-leftists in here are about as misguided as the bad guys), it is the usual suspects - leftist shitheads - hoping against desperate hope that this thing would drag down Trump.

Nobody is saying the virus itself is a "hoax". A lot of people are getting it; Some old sick people are dying from it. That doesn't fit the definition of "hoax". The overreaction, though, is clear and obvious. And one side definitely doesn't mind having Good Normal Americans sacrificing and suffering - after all, We are the ones who elected the guy they hate so much.

I was commenting on the twitter feed, not this forum. But my comment on people believing what they want to believe does pertain to some people on this forum ;-)

[Zool]

lol- no kidding, when liquor stores are deemed essential, it is nothing more than window dressing. I guess, maybe the liquor is needed to keep people sane what do I know.

Well can't alcoholics can die without it? Same reason you can order beer in a hospital bed?

[sharpe1027]

Hospitals haven't required this many people on ventilators for anything in recent memory.

All the talk of the mortality rate is missing the bigger picture. Modern medicine keeps people alive in really shitty conditions.

[sharpe1027]

The Ohio shut down document had so many exceptions it was much more useful as toilet paper.

In the current climate, it could still have a lot of value then.