More Banjo: Coronavirus And Sports

[Joemailman]

The Summer Olympics are due to be played in Tokyo this summer. If this virus keeps spreading, I wonder if it can be held. You have a situation where thousans of people travel from all over the world, including China, attend crowded sporting events, and then disperse to their home countries. It's hard to imagine this wouldn't make the situation worse.

6 people have been killed by the virus in Washington State. If there were to be a similar or worse outbreak in Wisconsin this fall, what then? Would people be comfortable being packed like sardines into Lambeau Field with 80,000 other people in a situation like that?

[ThunderDan]

The Summer Olympics are due to be played in Tokyo this summer. If this virus keeps spreading, I wonder if it can be held. You have a situation where thousans of people travel from all over the world, including China, attend crowded sporting events, and then disperse to their home countries. It's hard to imagine this wouldn't make the situation worse.

6 people have been killed by the virus in Washington State. If there were to be a similar or worse outbreak in Wisconsin this fall, what then? Would people be comfortable being packed like sardines into Lambeau Field with 80,000 other people in a situation like that?

I sure hope it doesn't get to that. If the corona virus is still around I would not be inclined to go to Lambeau next fall.

[KYPack]

I sure hope it doesn't get to that. If the corona virus is still around I would not be inclined to go to Lambeau next fall.

I'm goin',

If the Eagle game is a Sunday 1pm game, it's the KY family gathering for this year.

That way I will have survived the Ice bowl and the Flu bowl.

[hoosier]

Viri don't like hot, humid weather.

[mraynrand]

Viri don't like hot, humid weather.

+1

Olympic officials have about a two month deadline to decide. By late May, the virus (like the flu virus) will be largely expended for the season and we’ll likely. have much more epidemiological information on its spreading. I suspect this thing is highly infectious but the numbers of people who get mild or no symptoms will be very high as well. Also there is a vaccine already, so it’s just a matter of time before that gets out there...

You should see the numbers of people who have dropped dead from flu this year....and people still meet in public...

[scharpcheddar]

lol enough with the fear porn. nothing is happening. Stop believing major media

[mraynrand]

lol enough with the fear porn. nothing is happening. Stop believing major media

thank god, the voice of reason

[pbmax]

You should see the numbers of people who have dropped dead from flu this year....and people still meet in public...

Boy I hope you aren't on the PR team Rand ... :D

[red]

my guess is the olympics get canceled, which sucks because i love the olympics



whats scary about it is that you can have it for almost 2 weeks before you show any symptoms. and everyone you came in contact with over those two weeks is now infected

i had so really weird illness a couple weeks ago. no clue what it was. don't want to know

[call_me_ishmael]

my guess is the olympics get canceled, which sucks because i love the olympics



whats scary about it is that you can have it for almost 2 weeks before you show any symptoms. and everyone you came in contact with over those two weeks is now infected

i had so really weird illness a couple weeks ago. no clue what it was. don't want to know

Not so sure, wasn't Zika horrible in the last olympics? I have no idea if it's as bad of a virus, etc so I am speaking from a position of total ignorance.

[RashanGary]

I'm goin',

If the Eagle game is a Sunday 1pm game, it's the KY family gathering for this year.

That way I will have survived the Ice bowl and the Flu bowl.

:lol:

[texaspackerbacker]

lol enough with the fear porn. nothing is happening. Stop believing major media

Oh you're still here? This may be your first post ever that I agree with.

[texaspackerbacker]

25 killed in a tornado in Tennessee yesterday - undoubedly several times more than from that virus past, present, and future. Cancel the Titans season or at least make them play all road games hahahahaha.

[mraynrand]

25 killed in a tornado in Tennessee yesterday - undoubedly several times more than from that virus past, present, and future. Cancel the Titans season or at least make them play all road games hahahahaha.

FYI, this isn't funny.

[texaspackerbacker]

FYI, this isn't funny.

Since when does sarcasm have to be funny? Anyway, it wasn't meant to be funny - just an illustration of how some people think.

[MadtownPacker]

lol enough with the fear porn. nothing is happening. Stop believing major mediaAfter your SB prediction I guess I should be worried now!!

[mraynrand]

Since when does sarcasm have to be funny?

You may be new to this forum, but Texaspackerbacker doesn't do or understand 'sarcasm'.

[pbmax]

25 killed in a tornado in Tennessee yesterday - undoubedly several times more than from that virus past, present, and future. Cancel the Titans season or at least make them play all road games hahahahaha.

Its at 9 in the US so far. Let's hope this stays true.

[run pMc]

Cover your mouth, wash your hands, don't touch your face. Do that and most people will be ok.
Obviously, elderly and those with compromised immune or respiratory systems should be more concerned.

I think the spread of the virus is worth monitoring but not worth panicking over.
I also suspect there will be a push to immunize the athletes... they are working on vaccines.

If no spectators show up, would they still hold them? LOL (they should IMO)

[Joemailman]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/3/4/21164775/coronavirus-ncaa-basketball-tournament-without-fans


Imagine an NCAA Tournament with no fans in the arenas.

What normally would be thought an impossibility isn’t so far-fetched as the United States and the rest of the world attempt to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

An advocacy group for college athletes has urged the NCAA to consider holding its winter sports championships with no fans, and the idea has not been dismissed.

“If you can think of it, it’s something that we’ve gone through an analysis around,” NCAA Chief Operating Officer Donald Remy told Bloomberg News on Tuesday. “We’ve contingency planned for all circumstances.”

The NCAA declined further comment to The Associated Press on the possibility of no fans in the stands. Presumably, the games still would be televised.

[mraynrand]

An advocacy group for college athletes has urged the NCAA to consider holding its winter sports championships with no fans, and the idea has not been dismissed.

It would be just like most college women's games!

[pbmax]

I would bet, if you observed people, its almost impossible not to touch your face once you stop thinking about not touching it.

[mraynrand]

When I think about flu, I touch myself.

[hoosier]

I would bet, if you observed people, its almost impossible not to touch your face once you stop thinking about not touching it.

Like the proverbial pink elephant, it's really hard to not to touch your face when you THINK about touching your face. Argh, I just licked my fingers!

[pbmax]

When I think about flu, I touch myself.

Loved that song. Its about the flu, right?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv-34w8kGPM

[Joemailman]

https://www.espn.com/xfl/story/_/id/28846329/centurylink-field-vendor-worked-xfl-game-diagnosed-coronavirus


A stadium employee who worked at the XFL's Seattle Dragons home game Feb. 22 at CenturyLink Field has tested positive for the coronavirus, King County health officials said, but as of now, no games scheduled to be played at the facility have been canceled.

The MLS' Seattle Sounders host the Columbus Crew at CenturyLink on Saturday.

The Seattle Times reported that the employee who tested positive for the virus -- which causes the disease known as COVID19 -- was a concessions vendor.

The Dragons hosted the Dallas Renegades in the Feb. 22 game, which had an attendance of 22,060. The King County press office said in a statement that the risk to those who attended the game is low.

"There are no extra precautions required for those who attended the Feb. 22 game or who will attend upcoming events," the statement said, "but all King County residents should know that the risk for infection with COVID-19 is increasing in our community.

"As of now, Seattle's professional sports organizations -- Dragons, First & Goal/Seahawks, Mariners, and Sounders FC -- will continue with scheduled events. The teams are in touch with local health officials and their respective leagues on a regular basis, as this public health issue continues to evolve."

[pbmax]

MLB meeting later today about the virus. Plan is to play games before crowds so far. And to hold a mid-season lottery to determine playoff teams next year.

NFL held a meeting about the virus and Goodell issued a press release condemning all single-celled organism violence.

[hoosier]

Protein violence! Viruses are C ZERO.

[hoosier]

Here's your virulent and violent single celled organism: chlamydia discovered in abundant quantities in oxygen-deprived deep sea environments. Be careful where you...dive!

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0960-9822%2820%2930189-5

[Joemailman]

Ivy League cancels conference basketball tournaments.

https://www.newsday.com/sports/college/college-basketball/ivy-league-basketball-tournament-cancelled-coronavirus-1.42715247


“NCAA member schools and conferences make their own decisions regarding regular season and conference tournament play,“ NCAA president Mark Emmert said Tuesday in a statement. “As we have stated, we will make decisions on our events based on the best, most current public health guidance available.”
The Ivy League also announced Tuesday it will limit spectators at all other sporting events for the rest of the spring season.
The Princeton, New Jersey-based league said the decision was made in “accordance with the guidance of public health and medical professionals to discourage and limit large gatherings on campuses in light of the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation.”
For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. The vast majority of people recover from the new virus.
Ivy League Executive Director Robin Harris said in a statement the league shares the disappointment of players and coaches.
“Regrettably, the information and recommendations presented to us from public health authorities and medical professionals have convinced us that this is the most prudent decision,” she said.
The league said all tickets will be refunded and ticket holders with questions should contact the Harvard ticket office.
The women’s tournament was scheduled to start Friday night, with top-seeded Princeton facing Columbia and No. 2 seed Penn facing Yale. The winners were to meet Saturday in the championship game.

The cancellation was not taken well by players and coaches of the teams. Columbia, which was to play in the tournament for the first time, was about to start practice when coach Megan Griffith shared the news.
“Their hearts are broken. Completely devastated. They should be,” she said. “We understand there are health risks. This is not something to be lightly taken. We don’t know what alternatives were discussed. It’s hard to swallow.”
The league held a conference call Monday with coaches and other school staff to go over tournament logistics. Penn women’s basketball coach Mike McLaughlin said that it was a “typical call where you say what you’re supposed to say.”
“There was not a great deal of depth behind it. I think we all knew something was going to change. It wasn’t going to sit the way it was a year ago. I didn’t sense it would be canceled outright.”

When McLaughlin learned of the cancellation, he quickly called his team together so players could find out from him and not through social media.
“When [coach] said it, I was in immediate shock,” Penn senior Kendall Grasela said. “We get the bid to the WNIT but don’t get a chance to compete for an NCAA slot. ... I broke down, I could have played my last college game and not even known that.”
Grasela talked to the other team captains. The group reached out to the other Ivy League schools and has started an online petition to get the tournament re-instated.
McLaughlin, Griffith and Grasela were all upset at what they see as inconsistencies in the league because other sports are still able to play this weekend and beyond while basketball is not.
“It’s difficult to swallow. That’s what we’re trying to deal with,“ McLaughlin said. “We’re not able to play and now they are finding other sports are able to play. There’s an inconsistency of messages.”
The men’s tournament was to begin Saturday with top-seeded Yale playing Penn, followed by No. 2 seed Harvard facing Princeton. The men’s championship game was set for Sunday.
“It’s a bittersweet moment for us,“ Yale spokesman Mike Gambardella said. “We’re happy our men will get an [automatic bid], but disappointed that our women won’t be able to compete for a championship.”

CBS and Turner held a conference call Tuesday for reporters to discuss the NCAA men’s tournament with network executives and some high-profile announcers, such as Jim Nantz and Charles Barkley. The call was scheduled after the usual in-person availability with reporters held in New York City was canceled out of what the networks said was an abundance of caution related to the outbreak.
CBS Sports chairman Sean McManus and Jeff Zucker, chairman of WarnerMedia News and Sports, said the NCAA is in constant contact with its television partners. They said decisions regarding whether to postpone or cancel games or limit fan access to venues will be made solely by the NCAA.
They said there are no plans to scale back the number of crew members and broadcasters working the tournament and that television production of the games would mostly remain the same if they were played without fans in venues.
“Obviously, it would be a different atmosphere and we wouldn’t be focusing as we often do on the excitement of the fans,” McManus said. “The basketball game is still going to be produced as it would if there are fans in the stands.”

[sharpe1027]

It's a math problem. Almost twice as transmissible as the flu. About 20 times higher mortality rate. No vaccine. Flu killed about 60k last year.

Do nothing to change those numbers and you shouldn't be surprised with several million dead in the US.

Now, that's just the best we know today. Numbers could go up or down with different assumptions.

[texaspackerbacker]

Don't be surprised if this all turns out to be a big nothing. The symptoms are not nearly as bad as the flu. If the mortality rate is higher up to now, it's because it's mostly people with pre-existing health conditions have been the ones contracting it.

What we know today? 26 deaths and a few hundred total cases. That will undoubtedly go up considerably, but not nearly as much as the panic-mongers are talking about.

[sharpe1027]

Hope you're right Tex. Where did you get the information on most people already having underlying conditions? The mortality rate is based on a lot of cases. I think there are over 100k confirmed and rising. Never seen any breakdown supporting that conclusion.

[texaspackerbacker]

Over 1,000 now - 1,010 to be exact as of 12:40 am, NOT 100,000 confirmed cases. Most deaths (which are now up to 31) are people with chronic or preexisting conditions. Dr. Manny Alvarez said it this evening on Fox News. He also said about 80% or more of the people getting it are asymptomatic, and it's unknown as of now if asymptomatic people who have it can pass it on to others.

This whole thing is overblown. I won't ascribe a motive to that here, but tune in to FYI for my obvious take on that.

[sharpe1027]

Tex, the mortality rates are based on stats from over 100,000 confirmed cases. They exist.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[sharpe1027]

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

[sharpe1027]

Finally, I agree most people dying have preexsting conditions, I was asking about your statement that most people contracting the virus. Where's the data for that claim?

[Zool]

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?fbclid=IwAR16yTQpGt0VtS29IdmjexY3JNMeK-ELNBuwZ_DkcHy_M34eG2Itk0CZ5QI

[texaspackerbacker]

Tex, the mortality rates are based on stats from over 100,000 confirmed cases. They exist.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Not in America - there sure as hell aren't those numbers here.

[texaspackerbacker]

Finally, I agree most people dying have preexsting conditions, I was asking about your statement that most people contracting the virus. Where's the data for that claim?

What I said or should have said is about deaths, but I have heard that those already sick or old tend to have weaker immune systems and therefore are more likely to get it also.

[mraynrand]

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?fbclid=IwAR16yTQpGt0VtS29IdmjexY3JNMeK-ELNBuwZ_DkcHy_M34eG2Itk0CZ5QI

http://zombo.com

[smuggler]

Zombo.com only gets better with age.

[mraynrand]

Zombo.com only gets better with age.

That should be added to the website.

[sharpe1027]

What I said or should have said is about deaths, but I have heard that those already sick or old tend to have weaker immune systems and therefore are more likely to get it also.

Got it. Going strictly by the data, this could kill a whole hell of a lot of people. Any of the assumptions prove wrong and that can change, but it's the best info we have to go in today. Best not to tempt fate IMHO.

[mraynrand]

All the precautions against coronavirus spread should help reduce the incidence of seasonal flu, which killed another 100 people in the US today. As for coronavirus, watch out for places Chinese citizens, especially from the Wuhan region, travelled to recently.

[texaspackerbacker]

Got it. Going strictly by the data, this could kill a whole hell of a lot of people. Any of the assumptions prove wrong and that can change, but it's the best info we have to go in today. Best not to tempt fate IMHO.

Going strictly by the data, hell no, it won't. Past performance is the best indicator of future results, and up to now, it has been a big nothing - compared to flu, compared to past "outbreaks", compared to some people's expectations.

As a precaution, don't go out, especially if you need to drive, as 39,000 or so die from that in a year - more than 100 per day.

[pbmax]

All the precautions against coronavirus spread should help reduce the incidence of seasonal flu, which killed another 100 people in the US today. As for coronavirus, watch out for places Chinese citizens, especially from the Wuhan region, travelled to recently.

You have to be more careful than that. Washington state outbreak centered on people that did not travel.

[Gotarace]

Now the NCAA basketball tourney will only be essential employees and families ...Sorry this Fear Mongering and Hysteria have officially gone Off The Tracks.

[Joemailman]

Now the NCAA basketball tourney will only be essential employees and families ...Sorry this Fear Mongering and Hysteria have officially gone Off The Tracks.

NCAA considering moving Final 4 to a smaller venue in Atlanta. I suppose a high school gym would suffice at this point.

[sharpe1027]

Going strictly by the data, hell no, it won't. Past performance is the best indicator of future results, and up to now, it has been a big nothing - compared to flu, compared to past "outbreaks", compared to some people's expectations.

As a precaution, don't go out, especially if you need to drive, as 39,000 or so die from that in a year - more than 100 per day.

Key to past outbreaks was getting prentative measures in place early. With SARs infection rate was under 10k. Problem is with 100k cases we are already way past SARs.

Again, not to say it won't fall short of worst case, but the risk is not comparable to anything in recent history.

As for the car analogy, that's complete strawman.

[pbmax]

NCAA considering moving Final 4 to a smaller venue in Atlanta. I suppose a high school gym would suffice at this point.

Jason Gay said they should invite ONE fan per team. That would be a lot of pressure.

[pbmax]

Now the NCAA basketball tourney will only be essential employees and families ...Sorry this Fear Mongering and Hysteria have officially gone Off The Tracks.

From Twitter, source is good, but it’s Twitter:

2 weeks ago: Italy had 322 confirmed cases of the coronavirus
1 week ago: 2,502
Today: 10,149

A LOT depends on that next number and the US is way behind even manufacturing tests.

In sports news, UW Madison is going online only after March 23 for three weeks. I think that is after the break.

What is attendance like at B1G basketball tourney? Can’t watch yet.

[pbmax]

More on Italy:

I'm seeing 12,462 cases for Italy.
worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Different Guy
2,313 new cases and 196 dead in Italy today alone.

Those are randos, so take care with repeating the numbers.

[pbmax]

Phillip Bump
I overlaid the increase of coronavirus cases in Italy with the recent spike in the U.S. We're about where they were eight days ago.

[pbmax]

Last mortality rate I can find is 1%, 10 times greater than that of seasonal flu. This was from this AM I believe.

Reuter’s
The #coronavirus mortality rate is ‘10 times’ that of the seasonal flu, said Anthony Fauci, director at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, during a congressional hearing

[pbmax]

Phillip Bump
I overlaid the increase of coronavirus cases in Italy with the recent spike in the U.S. We're about where they were eight days ago.

Not sure about this, if he is just going by reported infections, might not be same trajectory. Need to see his work.

[pbmax]

Some tips on what to watch for the spread trend.

https://twitter.com/dsquareddigest/status/1237901485553393666?s=21

[call_me_ishmael]

We’ll never get a real USA number so no point in stressing it. Bottom line - expect to see outcomes and ratios similar or worse to other major non-shit-hole countries.

[Joemailman]

Hope this virus situation gets resolved before tick season gets here or we'll be dealing with Corona with Lyme.

[call_me_ishmael]

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1237914166285008896

Woj Nuke

[call_me_ishmael]

Tex is still thinking this is all silly shit and nothings going to happen. That old gomer is off his rocker.

[mraynrand]

Last mortality rate I can find is 1%, 10 times greater than that of seasonal flu. This was from this AM I believe.

Reuter’s
The #coronavirus mortality rate is ‘10 times’ that of the seasonal flu, said Anthony Fauci, director at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, during a congressional hearing

This 1% will likely go down as the denominator right now is skewed towards people with symptoms. Likely but not certain that there are lots of infected people who are asymptomatic And will never get sick. I suspect (and hope) this group is under represented right now.

If you are elderly and/or have compromising illnesses, you’re at higher risk. But that’s the same population that’s highest risk for flu complications as well.

US strategy is to slow the spread so that hospitals can accommodate the sick, and for warmer weather to extinguish the virus. It should work.

We could use a little global warming rn though.

[mraynrand]

You have to be more careful than that. Washington state outbreak centered on people that did not travel.

Someone brought it in but I don’t think they know Who it was yet.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/coronavirus-in-washington-state.amp.html%3f0p19G=7900

[sharpe1027]

It ain't the apocalypse, but I have plenty of friends and family that are at high risk. I don't mind missing a few in person sporting events to slow this down and decrease their risks. That being said, not being able to attend a sporting events in person could be argued as being more important.

In full disclosure, it's Friday night and I'm not entirt sober, so don't be too hard on me.

[texaspackerbacker]

talk about a fucking overreaction, sheeeesh, cancelling the NBA season? Just stupid!

[mraynrand]

talk about a fucking overreaction, sheeeesh, cancelling the NBA season? Just stupid!

Chinese won’t like that

[Joemailman]

talk about a fucking overreaction, sheeeesh, cancelling the NBA season? Just stupid!

They haven't cancelled the season. They've suspended it until further notice. An NBA player tested positive.

NHL will have an announcement tomorrow.

[call_me_ishmael]

They haven't cancelled the season. They've suspended it until further notice. An NBA player tested positive.

NHL will have an announcement tomorrow.

Not cancelling now is sort of a formality I've heard though. I honestly don't know. It seems crazy to skip the playoffs, etc.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

They haven't cancelled the season. They've suspended it until further notice. An NBA player tested positive.

NHL will have an announcement tomorrow.

Lemme know when they start canceling NFL games. I favor a 20-games regular season schedule b/c watching my beloved Pack on any given Sunday is the only thing I look forward too. The rest of my life is just a tedious grind.

As for the NBA and NHL, I ain’t give fucks. Only caucasoid supremacists dig the NHL, and I ain’t one in any shape, form or matter. The NBA, too many blacks.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Problem the NBA ran into was that when Gobert got the Covid, he and his teammates had to be quaranteened for 14 days. How is the NBA going to deal with a team that can't play for 2 weeks? So they had to postpone all the games.

[pbmax]

Hope this virus situation gets resolved before tick season gets here or we'll be dealing with Corona with Lyme.

I'd ban you for this but I have to stop laughing first.

[Zool]

It ain't the apocalypse, but I have plenty of friends and family that are at high risk. I don't mind missing a few in person sporting events to slow this down and decrease their risks. That being said, not being able to attend a sporting events in person could be argued as being more important.

In full disclosure, it's Friday night and I'm not entirt sober, so don't be too hard on me.

You're so drunk, you're 2 days in the future.

[pbmax]

Someone brought it in but I don’t think they know Who it was yet.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/coronavirus-in-washington-state.amp.html%3f0p19G=7900

Right, but that is why travel restrictions only buy you time. The virus is here, and travel is no longer a good predictor. This response was also not comprehensive or up to date. While Italy and France were experiencing large outbreaks, customs was still asking only about travel from China.

It would have helped to have testing squared away earlier because mitigation would be more effective if you knew about more of your cases to isolate.

[pbmax]

Lemme know when they start canceling NFL games. I favor a 20-games regular season schedule b/c watching my beloved Pack on any given Sunday is the only thing I look forward too. The rest of my life is just a tedious grind.

As for the NBA and NHL, I ain’t give fucks. Only caucasoid supremacists dig the NHL, and I ain’t one in any shape, form or matter. The NBA, too many blacks.

What happened to the boycott?

[pbmax]

You're so drunk, you're 2 days in the future.

Can't trust any of his numbers now.

[Zool]

Unless he's Marty McFly?

[pbmax]

They haven't cancelled the season. They've suspended it until further notice. An NBA player tested positive.

NHL will have an announcement tomorrow.

Rudy Gobert, and you won't believe what he did next.

https://twitter.com/HoarseWisperer/status/1238073331703861248

Next game he was out (another teammate as well) with an illness. Now he tested positive. Real Man of Genius.

[pbmax]

Unless he's Marty McFly?

:shock:


Sharpe, send me some scans of the sport almanac man. Help a brother out!

[Joemailman]

NBA is telling times to check on availability of arenas into August.

I'm guessing NFL Draft will be a throwback. Guys making picks on the phone with no fans around. Free Agency is almost here though. Not sure how they'll handle player visits.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Folks, I know some of you think this is not real, but you literally would have to be dumb as a box of rocks to think that way. Its not the flu, its not a bad cold, its a 'novel' virus, i.e. never seen before. And for some of you saying it is dumb to cancel events, I have seen graphs of daily infected of countries who are not locking down vs countries who are locking down, and its not even close. And be careful on mortality rates, I'm pretty sure the denominator is not those with symptoms, it is those who have been officially diagnosed. And in the good old USA, who does not have enough test kits yet, I am concerned we are WAY behind the curve. You can love or hate the current administration, but they also are way behind the curve, they should have been preparing when China first started having outbreaks.

[pbmax]

NBA is telling times to check on availability of arenas into August.

I'm guessing NFL Draft will be a throwback. Guys making picks on the phone with no fans around. Free Agency is almost here though. Not sure how they'll handle player visits.

I have a Browns helmet phone they can borrow if they want.

[pbmax]

Wisconsin HS Sports limiting fan attendance to spring sports events.

Girls b-ball tourney is 88 fans per team.

[mraynrand]

Right, but that is why travel restrictions only buy you time. The virus is here, and travel is no longer a good predictor. This response was also not comprehensive or up to date. While Italy and France were experiencing large outbreaks, customs was still asking only about travel from China.

It would have helped to have testing squared away earlier because mitigation would be more effective if you knew about more of your cases to isolate.

Yep, only buy you time. That’s the strategy.

Italy and elsewhere: they weren’t screening back in people’s travel history either. So you could be 2 steps away from wuhan and they weren’t looking.

But I confess I don’t know what the infrastructure for this looks like. Do they have teams they mobilize at an instant, how many ports of entry are there, do they check docks and container shipping, etc.

[mraynrand]

Girls b-ball tourney is 88 fans per team.

They are forcing them to add 30 extra fans/team? Seems counterintuitive.

[mraynrand]

I have a Browns helmet phone they can borrow if they want.

I heard they were changing the name of the virus to the Cleveland Browns Virus so it could be more easily defeated.

[mraynrand]

Girls b-ball tourney is 88 fans per team.

Red right 88!

[pbmax]

Red right 88!

I want to know how they arrived at the number 88?

[Cheesehead Craig]

I want to know how they arrived at the number 88?

I think that's just the number of allotted tickets for immediate family members of the players per school.

[pbmax]

I heard they were changing the name of the virus to the Cleveland Browns Virus so it could be more easily defeated.

The Browns are always ready to self quarantine.

[pbmax]

B1G just cancelled the Men's Basketball tourney.

[pbmax]

MLS suspending season.

[red]

I heard they were changing the name of the virus to the Cleveland Browns Virus so it could be more easily defeated.

Lol

Now that was a good one

[pbmax]

A teammate of Rudy Gobert has been diagnosed with coronavirus.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn

Jazz star Donovan Mitchell has tested positive for the coronavirus, league sources tell ESPN. Jazz players privately say that Rudy Gobert had been careless in the locker room touching other players and their belongings. Now a Jazz teammate has tested positive.

[pbmax]

Towson Athletics @TowsonTigers
Out of an abundance of caution due to the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States, Towson University has suspended the remainder of the athletics varsity spring season, effective immediately.

This reasoning is misplaced. Its not an abundance of caution in the face of some unknown. You are not having events to stop possible transmission at those events. Its a specific step with a specific purpose.

Courtney Cronin @CourtneyRCronin
The Minnesota Vikings are suspending travel for coaches and scouts until further notice, following suit of other NFL franchises amid concerns of COVID-19.

[mraynrand]

Eugene Wei@eugenewei

May be time to revisit our views of this brave man in his N95 mask who ordered a quarantine of Manhattan over the objections of the public and whose primary foe was a man infected by a bat

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES3dSKNU8AIGrzZ?format=jpg&name=medium

[George Cumby]

Lol

[run pMc]

Folks, I know some of you think this is not real, but you literally would have to be dumb as a box of rocks to think that way. Its not the flu, its not a bad cold, its a 'novel' virus, i.e. never seen before. And for some of you saying it is dumb to cancel events, I have seen graphs of daily infected of countries who are not locking down vs countries who are locking down, and its not even close. And be careful on mortality rates, I'm pretty sure the denominator is not those with symptoms, it is those who have been officially diagnosed. And in the good old USA, who does not have enough test kits yet, I am concerned we are WAY behind the curve. You can love or hate the current administration, but they also are way behind the curve, they should have been preparing when China first started having outbreaks.

Agree. For those nonsmokers in good health under 50, it's easy to be cavalier about this. I'm not going to panic and go full tilt prepper, but I sure don't want a respiratory virus or lesions on my lungs. If cancelling events can prevent the spread of this, as a practical matter it's a reasonable idea, and within the rights of the governing bodies to decide.

Risking public health for a sporting event is a weird debate to have.

And I also agree that the US is behind the curve on this. The White House has made statements that clearly contradict the government's own medical experts, and it has caused fear, confusion, and doubt. I hope they can get on the same page and make up ground on combating the severity of this virus.

[Cheesehead Craig]

With all the conferences cancelling tourneys and now every sport stopping their seasons, I don't see how March Madness can be played.

[Joemailman]

With all the conferences cancelling tourneys and now every sport stopping their seasons, I don't see how March Madness can be played.

It's just a matter of time. I think it will be cancelled today.

[texaspackerbacker]

"dumb as a box of rocks" is what the panicky fools are that are making a big deal out of this respiratory thing. It is strictly respiratory - a little cough and sniffles, and it apparently lasts two weeks. That sounds strangely like a common cold - for which there also is no cure, and which worst case, could turn into pneumonia and kill somebody who is already sick or fragile.

And for that, they're ruining the enjoyment of basically everybody who likes sports - a colossal overreaction.

This reminds me of the weekend after the Kennedy assassination in 1963. I didn't give a shit about Kennedy, but I absolutely hated that there was no sports that weekend.

[call_me_ishmael]

It's just a matter of time. I think it will be cancelled today.

Do you think they'll move it, or just completely cancel it? That would really stink to outright cancel such a huge event in the player's livees, but I 100% get it. I hope the compromise is to reschedule to a date TBD when things are more settled.

[Joemailman]

ESPN

The NCAA has called off its men's and women's basketball tournaments as part of a complete cancellation of all remaining spring and winter championships.

.
Here's what the NCAA said in a statement:

"Today, NCAA President Mark Emmert and the Board of Governors canceled the Division I men’s and women’s 2020 basketball tournaments, as well as all remaining winter and spring NCAA championships. This decision is based on the evolving COVID-19 public health threat, our ability to ensure the events do not contribute to spread of the pandemic, and the impracticality of hosting such events at any time during this academic year given ongoing decisions by other entities."
The announcement also means sports like golf, lacrosse, tennis and the College World Series would also be canceled.

[red]

.

wow

[Joemailman]

"NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell notified the clubs today that after careful consideration and consultation with medical experts, the NFL's annual meeting scheduled for March 29-April 1 has been canceled.

"There will be full consideration and votes on any open football issues, including playing rules, bylaws, and resolutions, as well as other business matters that were on the agenda for the Annual Meeting, at the Spring Meeting scheduled for May 19-20. Most of the first day will be dedicated to football-related issues. Head coaches and general managers will participate in the meeting.

"This decision was made consistent with the league's primary concern to protect the health of club and league employees and the public while enabling the league to continue with its essential business operations.

"We will continue to closely monitor developments, consults with leading experts, and be prepared to make any changes necessary as circumstances warrant.".

[run pMc]

It is strictly respiratory - a little cough and sniffles, and it apparently lasts two weeks. That sounds strangely like a common cold - for which there also is no cure, and which worst case, could turn into pneumonia and kill somebody who is already sick or fragile.

Read about what a cytokine storm is -- they can be pretty nasty. I'm a very healthy person and I don't want to be exposed to this. I'm not gonna hoard toilet paper either -- that's crazy -- so I somewhat understand where you're coming from.

The spanish flu of 1918 had a mortality rate of between 1 and 6% depending on the death estimates; Stanford estimates it at 2.5%. That flu killed more people in 24 weeks than HIV/AIDS killed in 24 years, maybe wearing a body condom will help you. :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

My point is that this was declared a pandemic, which is a pretty serious thing as history has shown.
I agree the 24 hour news cycle and social media often amplify and panic - whether it's CNN, Fox News, or Facebook - but I don't think at this point you can simply say this is much ado about nothing. Countries are closing their borders and quarantining cruise ships; should a sporting arena be different?

[pbmax]

Tex, the current mortality rate for those over 65 is between 10-15%, so perhaps you will not have to bother with other people’s concerns for very much longer :)

ALERT: I am not wishing Tex come to harm, I am just tweaking him for his “it’s only a cold” approach.

Plus, think about how bad a cold/flu could be if you did not have a lifetime of exposure to build immunity, a mother who transferred some of her immunity to you, known transmission patterns, built-in hospital capacity and a vaccine (for flu).

[hoosier]

"dumb as a box of rocks" is what the panicky fools are that are making a big deal out of this respiratory thing. It is strictly respiratory - a little cough and sniffles, and it apparently lasts two weeks. That sounds strangely like a common cold - for which there also is no cure, and which worst case, could turn into pneumonia and kill somebody who is already sick or fragile.

And for that, they're ruining the enjoyment of basically everybody who likes sports - a colossal overreaction.

This reminds me of the weekend after the Kennedy assassination in 1963. I didn't give a shit about Kennedy, but I absolutely hated that there was no sports that weekend.

Your proctologist called....They found your head.

[red]

Tex, the current mortality rate for those over 65 is between 10-15%, so perhaps you will not have to bother with other people’s concerns for very much longer :)

.

we can only hope

[Cheesehead Craig]

.

And boom goes the dynomite

[pbmax]

Pays to keep in mind that keeping large groups of people meeting (like a sporting event) isn’t to reduce chance of healthy people dying, though it helps.

The idea is that you slow progression through vulnerable populations, thereby really reducing mortality rates.

So healthy kids and young adults don’t accidentally infect Grandma or the neighbor with COPD or asthma.

[mraynrand]

The real reason they’re trying to slow the progression is to outlast the thing and prevent spikes that would overhwhelm hospitals.

That’s if the severity rate seen elsewhere for the elderly corresponds to this country.

I’m convinced that this thing is more severe for the very old and sick but also think it won’t be anywhere near 15% for that population. Will it be more or less severe than regular flu or H1N1? Don’t know. And now we may never know because if the result is less severe that could be because the virus is weaker or because of the precautions or both. If it’s more severe even with the precautions....holy hell.

Still, it isn’t a cold for Chrissakes.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Pays to keep in mind that keeping large groups of people meeting (like a sporting event) isn’t to reduce chance of healthy people dying, though it helps.

The idea is that you slow progression through vulnerable populations, thereby really reducing mortality rates.

So healthy kids and young adults don’t accidentally infect Grandma or the neighbor with COPD or asthma.

Not only slow progression, but has already been shown to shorten the infection rate, and thereby the pandemic cycle. Otherwise, it just keeps going, and going and...

I also think we will be ok, mainly because the main players who originally thought this was nothing are starting to take it seriously. Unfortunately, I am in a higher age/risk group so am just paying closer attention.

I believe/hope all the rats make it just fine...

[Joemailman]

With major sports wiped out, what does ESPN do now? Have they cancelled Australian Rules Football?

[ThunderDan]

Wisconsin HS Sports limiting fan attendance to spring sports events.

Girls b-ball tourney is 88 fans per team.

4 tickets for each kids family. My business partners daughter is on the Middleton team and heading up to GB tomorrow. Grandpa has been told by his doctors not to make the trip.

[Joemailman]

Rob Demovsky
ESPN Staff Writer

The Packers are suspending all business-related air travel for their employees, including coaches and scouts, the team said. Lambeau Field and the Packers-related businesses also will be closed for two weeks, beginning tomorrow. Lambeau Field and the adjacent Titletown will only have critical staff in place for non-public operations. The majority of other Packers personnel will be required to work remotely as duties permit.

[texaspackerbacker]

Tex, the current mortality rate for those over 65 is between 10-15%, so perhaps you will not have to bother with other people’s concerns for very much longer :)

ALERT: I am not wishing Tex come to harm, I am just tweaking him for his “it’s only a cold” approach.

Plus, think about how bad a cold/flu could be if you did not have a lifetime of exposure to build immunity, a mother who transferred some of her immunity to you, known transmission patterns, built-in hospital capacity and a vaccine (for flu).

Do you know anybody who has this corona thing? Does anybody in here personally know anybody who does? There are 1,500 or so cases now in the whole country according to CNN, and about 40 deaths. There are 38 cases in Texas with zero deaths. And yet panicky fools are making a big deal about this.

I may be the oldest person in Packerrats - can anybody beat 72, 73 next month? And I sure as hell ain't worried. If your 10-15% thing is accurate, it reflects people with pre-existing sickness and compromised immune systems, in a lot of cases, nursing home patients. 29 of the 40 deaths have been in Washington state. My son lives there - suburbs of Seattle, and he says most people there are living normal lives, not a whole lot of panic, mainly for the reason I said - it's old sick people in nursing homes that are doing the dying - in the case of Washington state, originally due to contact with people who actually came from China.

Panic is just plain unjustified anywhere in this country. I won't say thank you, (you know who), but tune in to FYI if you can't figure it out, and be thankful we don't have the mess they have in Europe where their leaders are idiots.

[ThunderDan]

Do you know anybody who has this corona thing? Does anybody in here personally know anybody who does? There are 1,500 or so cases now in the whole country according to CNN, and about 40 deaths. There are 38 cases in Texas with zero deaths. And yet panicky fools are making a big deal about this.

I may be the oldest person in Packerrats - can anybody beat 72, 73 next month? And I sure as hell ain't worried. If your 10-15% thing is accurate, it reflects people with pre-existing sickness and compromised immune systems, in a lot of cases, nursing home patients. 29 of the 40 deaths have been in Washington state. My son lives there - suburbs of Seattle, and he says most people there are living normal lives, not a whole lot of panic, mainly for the reason I said - it's old sick people in nursing homes that are doing the dying - in the case of Washington state, originally due to contact with people who actually came from China.

Panic is just plain unjustified anywhere in this country. I won't say thank you, (you know who), but tune in to FYI if you can't figure it out, and be thankful we don't have the mess they have in Europe where their leaders are idiots.

I do. A client of mine is a school teacher in a suburb of Seattle. She had a student in her classroom with it. They were the last school in her district that was open. They are now closed for 3 weeks.

[sharpe1027]

I'd ban you for this but I have to stop laughing first.

Exactly.

[sharpe1027]

:shock:


Sharpe, send me some scans of the sport almanac man. Help a brother out!

Wouldn't have helped. All the games are cancelled.

[pbmax]

The real reason they’re trying to slow the progression is to outlast the thing and prevent spikes that would overhwhelm hospitals.

That’s if the severity rate seen elsewhere for the elderly corresponds to this country.

I’m convinced that this thing is more severe for the very old and sick but also think it won’t be anywhere near 15% for that population. Will it be more or less severe than regular flu or H1N1? Don’t know. And now we may never know because if the result is less severe that could be because the virus is weaker or because of the precautions or both. If it’s more severe even with the precautions....holy hell.

Still, it isn’t a cold for Chrissakes.

It is definitely more serious for the elderly and the already respiratory compromised. Not sure there is any debate about that at this point. The 10-15% number was specifically cited for the elderly.

But the older population and the compromised are the ones who will overrun resources as they will get sick at a higher rate.

There were reports out of Italy that some hospitals could not treat new patients at all, no matter the need. Palliative care was all that was left available to offer. They were out of beds, docs, nurses and equipment.

[pbmax]

With major sports wiped out, what does ESPN do now? Have they cancelled Australian Rules Football?

ESPN was so much more fun before they actually got baseball and football.

[pbmax]

Do you know anybody who has this corona thing? Does anybody in here personally know anybody who does? There are 1,500 or so cases now in the whole country according to CNN, and about 40 deaths. There are 38 cases in Texas with zero deaths. And yet panicky fools are making a big deal about this. .

That isn't the point. The growth pattern that follows will be decided by actions taken early. The less you do now, the more cases you get later.

[Joemailman]

That isn't the point. The growth pattern that follows will be decided by actions taken early. The less you do now, the more cases you get later.

No kidding. My 93 year old mother is is an assisted living home. I'd like to be able to be able to visit her at some point.

Actually, she went into the hospital today with the norovirus. That's no picnic either for an old person. At any rate, the best way to protect the most vulnerable is to limit the spread of the coronavirus now.

[texaspackerbacker]

That isn't the point. The growth pattern that follows will be decided by actions taken early. The less you do now, the more cases you get later.

Not necessarily. The actions you're talking about have been taken here - primarily banning travel from China and now Europe, secondarily the stuff I hate - shutting down sports, etc. There's no strong reason why there should be huge numbers of cases in the areas where there is none or almost none now. The number of new cases is already decreasing in China and South Korea. Fairly soon, that should happen here too, and the peak of the graph will not be remotely close to as high thanks to those travel bans.

I saw an interview today with a fairly old guy named Carl Goldman who was on the cruise ship from which the Americans were evacuated to Nebraska. He described what it was like to actually have the virus. He said one day of fairly high fever that went down after that one, then a week or more with slight cough and runny nose. That really does sound a lot like a common cold. The guy said he tested negative yesterday, and 2 more days of negative tests are required before he can get out of quarantine.

I say again, the panic over this thing is over done and stupid.

[call_me_ishmael]

Nobody is panicking. It's all about being responsible and saving lives. The travel ban is stupid but shutting down schools, having people work from home, stopping sports, etc is an unbelievable show of unity to fight the spread and will ultimately make it dramatically smaller impact. If we did none of those things, every single America would get the virus. It's not over done and stupid. You're over done and stupid.

[mraynrand]

If we did none of those things, every single America would get the virus.

That’s a pretty stupid thing to write.


It's not over done and stupid. You're over done and stupid.

Physician, heal thyself!

[mraynrand]

Nobody is panicking..

Seen the stock market lately?

[texaspackerbacker]

Nobody is panicking. It's all about being responsible and saving lives. The travel ban is stupid but shutting down schools, having people work from home, stopping sports, etc is an unbelievable show of unity to fight the spread and will ultimately make it dramatically smaller impact. If we did none of those things, every single America would get the virus. It's not over done and stupid. You're over done and stupid.

hahahahahaha Typically, you've got it backwards. Keeping sick damn foreigners out - like the ones from China who brought us the problem in the first place - is obviously the best strategy. The fools in Italy and the rest of Europe were too damn dumb to do that - as you apparently wish for, based on your words here, and look what a mess they have.

Making virtually all Americans suffer with the various shutdowns is what it is - a gross overreaction, but I suppose it will cut down on the already low numbers of cases.

"If we did none of those things, every single America would get the virus." hahahahahaha and you say you're not panicking? Sheeeeesh, that's just ludicrous.

[call_me_ishmael]

That’s a pretty stupid thing to write.

Not really. That's not how exponential growth works. You don't think every single American would get a highly contagious virus with an up to two week incubation period before symptoms occur in many cases?

Every might be a stretch, I agree, but pretty much anybody's who's not a hermit will get the thing at some point if it continues to run rampant and we treat everything as business as usual.

[mraynrand]

Stop digging.

[sharpe1027]

Seen the stock market lately?

Stock market crash isn't just about Corona.

[pbmax]

Not necessarily. The actions you're talking about have been taken here - primarily banning travel from China and now Europe, secondarily the stuff I hate - shutting down sports, etc. There's no strong reason why there should be huge numbers of cases in the areas where there is none or almost none now. The number of new cases is already decreasing in China and South Korea. Fairly soon, that should happen here too, and the peak of the graph will not be remotely close to as high thanks to those travel bans.

I saw an interview today with a fairly old guy named Carl Goldman who was on the cruise ship from which the Americans were evacuated to Nebraska. He described what it was like to actually have the virus. He said one day of fairly high fever that went down after that one, then a week or more with slight cough and runny nose. That really does sound a lot like a common cold. The guy said he tested negative yesterday, and 2 more days of negative tests are required before he can get out of quarantine.

I say again, the panic over this thing is over done and stupid.

Its always wise to extrapolate from one test case, from someone "fairly old" and of unknown medical history.

The travel ban slows down the spread. Its was not thorough enough (was only worried about China for too long) or discriminating enough (it was a questionnaire, not a medical test) to stop it. But if you delay the spread of the disease at all, you have more time to find and implement a test and other precautions. Testing has been problematic in the US because the first test kit ran into trouble right away (it has a component failure and manufacturing was slow). Last I read, two days ago, it still wasn't being produced in mass quantities.

Without widespread testing, you are guessing at the total numbers and relying on private facilities or researchers (Cleveland Clinic and the group in Seattle) to develop tests for part of a local populace. You don't know what you don't know. Those facilities are not everywhere and they can't manufacture at scale.

So limiting large scale events with people is another measure you take to slow the spread of the disease.

This thing has overrun medical facilities in other modern countries. You don't want that to happen and should act now to prevent it.

[sharpe1027]

Not necessarily. The actions you're talking about have been taken here - primarily banning travel from China and now Europe, secondarily the stuff I hate - shutting down sports, etc. There's no strong reason why there should be huge numbers of cases in the areas where there is none or almost none now. The number of new cases is already decreasing in China and South Korea. Fairly soon, that should happen here too, and the peak of the graph will not be remotely close to as high thanks to those travel bans.

I saw an interview today with a fairly old guy named Carl Goldman who was on the cruise ship from which the Americans were evacuated to Nebraska. He described what it was like to actually have the virus. He said one day of fairly high fever that went down after that one, then a week or more with slight cough and runny nose. That really does sound a lot like a common cold. The guy said he tested negative yesterday, and 2 more days of negative tests are required before he can get out of quarantine.

I say again, the panic over this thing is over done and stupid.

Strawman argument. Nobody is arguing every person will get very sick. Making decisions based on one single person is dangerous.

[sharpe1027]

That’s a pretty stupid thing to write

Agreed. Probably more like 20% to 60% without any precautions.

[mraynrand]

Stock market crash isn't just about Corona.

Tell me more.

[pbmax]

With further reading, CDC started to screen travelers in mid January, but this was with the flawed test. By the time the test was fixed, the virus was here. Positively identified in Washington State. Without testing, you don't know where else it's gotten to. Each specialist I have read said travel bans were not going to keep the virus out. You needed a mitigation strategy for when it did arrive.

And so...


"Without testing, you have no idea how extensive the infection is. You can't isolate people. You can't do anything," he says. "And so then we're left with a completely different set of choices. We have to shut schools, events and everything down, because that's the only tool available to us until we get testing back up. It's been stunning to me how bad the federal response has been."

~ Mike Ryan, World Health Organization's head of emergencies

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not

[Fosco33]

XFL canceling regular season. After the first wknd -does anyone watch? I was in STL this week and people were pretty hyped about their local team.

[ThunderDan]

XFL canceling regular season. After the first wknd -does anyone watch? I was in STL this week and people were pretty hyped about their local team.

I thought it already went bankrupt and was cancelled.

[Fosco33]

I thought it already went bankrupt and was cancelled.

Paying players for rest of season and may still do playoffs. STL avg 25k fans a game. Not so much for LA.

[Fosco33]

Masters postponed.

[sharpe1027]

Tell me more.

Everything is cyclical. The bull market had to correct at some point. The correction was triggered and worsened by the virus, but it was going to happen eventually. Here's one take: https://www.tradersmagazine.com/am/is-the-coronavirus-really-behind-the-stock-market-crash/

[call_me_ishmael]

Tell me more.

Funny, you and Howard were saying it was from Saudi lowering the price of oil just like week bruh.

[call_me_ishmael]

Agreed. Probably more like 20% to 60% without any precautions.

I think 60% is probably closer than 20%, but I tend to think that's even a little low based on some quick napkin math and pretending I know what I'm talking about. Let's say 20% have it. Based on exponential spreading now reason to think two weeks later 80% wouldn't be exposed to it. There's no natural immunity yet AFAIK, so one would think exposure would lead to sickness. Of course, not all exposure would be new exposure per say, so that has to be accounted for as well.

[sharpe1027]

Its always wise to extrapolate from one test case, from someone "fairly old" and of unknown medical history.

The travel ban slows down the spread. Its was not thorough enough (was only worried about China for too long) or discriminating enough (it was a questionnaire, not a medical test) to stop it. But if you delay the spread of the disease at all, you have more time to find and implement a test and other precautions. Testing has been problematic in the US because the first test kit ran into trouble right away (it has a component failure and manufacturing was slow). Last I read, two days ago, it still wasn't being produced in mass quantities.

Without widespread testing, you are guessing at the total numbers and relying on private facilities or researchers (Cleveland Clinic and the group in Seattle) to develop tests for part of a local populace. You don't know what you don't know. Those facilities are not everywhere and they can't manufacture at scale.

So limiting large scale events with people is another measure you take to slow the spread of the disease.

This thing has overrun medical facilities in other modern countries. You don't want that to happen and should act now to prevent it.

I know someone that was in a car crash without their seatbelt. They didn't get more than small abrasions. From this I conclude car crashes are no worse than stubbing your toe and people wearing seatbelts is an unnecessary overreaction.

[call_me_ishmael]

Good post, Peanut Butter. The big rumor going around today is this is going to be last day of Wisconsin public schools for awhile. We'll see if it comes to fruition. It makes sense if you're cancelling everything else.

[mraynrand]

I know someone that was in a car crash without their seatbelt. They didn't get more than small abrasions. From this I conclude car crashes are no worse than stubbing your toe and people wearing seatbelts is an unnecessary overreaction.

This is an interesting analogy, considering that we tolerate tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of injuries and yet continue using these dangerous devices.

[mraynrand]

Everything is cyclical. The bull market had to correct at some point. The correction was triggered and worsened by the virus, but it was going to happen eventually. Here's one take: https://www.tradersmagazine.com/am/is-the-coronavirus-really-behind-the-stock-market-crash/

So you're saying the 'correction' was in response to the virus.

[mraynrand]

Funny, you and Howard were saying it was from Saudi lowering the price of oil just like week bruh.

Howard mentioned that it was a dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia. What brought it on?

[mraynrand]

Did anyone notice that the virus has essentially run it's course in China? They had 8 new cases yesterday and 15 the day before. Maybe the NBA can finish their season over there, if they allow infected Americans to come into their clean country.

[sharpe1027]

This is an interesting analogy, considering that we tolerate tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of injuries and yet continue using these dangerous devices.
The analogy was with reference to using a single incident to make policy.

Your point is different and the analogy may not fit as well. That's how analogies often work.

It's a cost benefit analysis. Stopping all personal auto travel forever is not a trade-off people are willing to make.

If there were no adequate mitigation for Corona, we'd just live with it.

[sharpe1027]

So you're saying the 'correction' was in response to the virus.

Yes.

[sharpe1027]

Did anyone notice that the virus has essentially run it's course in China? They had 8 new cases yesterday and 15 the day before. Maybe the NBA can finish their season over there, if they allow infected Americans to come into their clean country.
With the extreme steps they took to get to this point, I doubt they'll have large gatherings anytime soon.

[mraynrand]

If there were no adequate mitigation for Corona, we'd just live with it.

That's sort of what we do with flu and did with H1N1. The flu vaccine is like wearing seat belts. H1N1 we drove even though the brakes were spotty. We've decided (right or wrong) in this case that the car is so defective that the only remedy is not to drive.

[sharpe1027]

That's sort of what we do with flu and did with H1N1. The flu vaccine is like wearing seat belts. H1N1 we drove even though the brakes were spotty. We've decided (right or wrong) in this case that the car is so defective that the only remedy is not to drive.

Yep. Open question is how bad the car really is.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

The only stock I own is the one share I have of the Packers. I'd be pathologically lying if I say I wouldn't be as jolly as Johnny Jolly high on the purple drank should the stock market crumble into the abyss of oblivion.

[pbmax]

Thanks to Tank.

Back to sports please.

[mraynrand]

Back to sports please.

and the virus

[run pMc]

The only stock I own is the one share I have of the Packers. I'd be pathologically lying if I say I wouldn't be as jolly as Johnny Jolly high on the purple drank should the stock market crumble into the abyss of oblivion.

Wouldn't happen. 2008 taught us the IMF, Fed, et al. would step in to help prop up governments and economies, and that would of course be largely in the form of corporate bailouts and handouts. They want to make sure you have a shitty job to go to.
I suppose this is a best left to FYI.

[mraynrand]

Wouldn't happen. 2008 taught us the IMF, Fed, et al. would step in to help prop up governments and economies, and that would of course be largely in the form of corporate bailouts and handouts. They want to make sure you have a shitty job to go to.
I suppose this is a best left to FYI.

I would think there would be a little more leeway, the way the virus is affecting sports by affecting everything. In FYI: the feds have already doled out an astonishing 1.5 trillion (color hidden to protect sensitive eyes)

[texaspackerbacker]

That's the point - there are no sports.

I said a long time ago, if the damn terrorists were smart, they'd do a three-pronged attack: 1 they'd hit a sports event - scaring/panicking/depressing men all over the country, 2 they'd hit malls - scaring/panicking/depressing women, etc. from going shopping, 3 they'd hit a school - scaring/panicking/depressing anybody with kids, grandkids, etc. Well, all three of those have occurred. There is no indication it was terrorism. In actuality, it wasn't even the damn virus. It was just the stupid panic-stricken overreaction to the virus.

[run pMc]

That isn't the point. The growth pattern that follows will be decided by actions taken early. The less you do now, the more cases you get later.

This this all day this.

If you limit the spread of the virus, you have less cases and less deaths. You limit the spread by taking measure quickly. I realize coronavirus <> flu, but I again point to the Spanish flu epidemic and how Philadelphia handled it vs. St. Louis. Philly had a WWI parade, St. Louis cancelled events. Philly had major outbreak, St. Louis had a flat curve in terms of reported cases.

Some people will get basically what feels like a common cold, others could end up needing a hospital bed. There are only so many hospital beds in the US. I know of people in health care who tell me hospitals are closing off a section of their building specifically for this, meaning less revenue from lucrative elective surgeries. Supply chains are impacted. Many businesses are telling people to work from home. Conferences and travel is impacted. Obviously sporting events and the revenue there. The economy is clearly impacted by this... so of course the stock market will.

SOME people are definitely panicking. I went to the grocery store last night and half the store was empty - no canned goods, no bread, no TP (because of course lol) and the checkout lines were crazy. It was like I had stepped into a store in an impoverished foreign country lol.

If this were simply a common cold, I don't know why the world would be responding the way it is. Neither SARS nor MERS didn't impact us like this.

What I do wonder is if this is going to travel around the world in waves and come back around slightly mutated in the Fall/Winter. Merry Christmas!

[sharpe1027]

That's the point - there are no sports.

I said a long time ago, if the damn terrorists were smart, they'd do a three-pronged attack: 1 they'd hit a sports event - scaring/panicking/depressing men all over the country, 2 they'd hit malls - scaring/panicking/depressing women, etc. from going shopping, 3 they'd hit a school - scaring/panicking/depressing anybody with kids, grandkids, etc. Well, all three of those have occurred. There is no indication it was terrorism. In actuality, it wasn't even the damn virus. It was just the stupid panic-stricken overreaction to the virus.

Evidence says otherwise. Repeating something doesn't make it more true, but it can sway public opinion. This type of statement puts my friends and family at increased risk. How confident are you?

[sharpe1027]

One more point, looking only at mortality rate is like ignoring all amputees when assessing the damage from a war. There are a number of people surviving with long term lung damage.

[mraynrand]

One more point, looking only at mortality rate is like ignoring all amputees when assessing the damage from a war. There are a number of people surviving with long term lung damage.

sure, but it's one of the simple stats to compare across pandemics: infected, hospitalized, dead.

[mraynrand]

Repeating something doesn't make it more true, but it can sway public opinion.

indeed

There's a lot of that going around.*









* I just made a virus joke

[mraynrand]

death rate going down because, reasons:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

[call_me_ishmael]

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1238533493312950275

BREAKING: Shorewood School District, Whitefish Bay, Brown Deer, Cedarburg, Fox Point- Bayside, Germantown, Glendale-River Hills, Grafton, Maple Dale-Indian Hill, Nicolet, Northern Ozaukee, Port Washington, Mequon-Thiensville, Glendale and River Hills will be closing for 4 weeks.

I'd be shocked if the west burbs didn't follow suit too.

[mraynrand]

Are the west burbs more polluted and/or do people smoke more there?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES_JQXhXkAI1ika?format=jpg&name=medium

[pbmax]

death rate going down because, reasons:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

There is your denominator problem. Earliest reported were the severest, especially in Wuhan.

[pbmax]

Tom @Haudricourt
The Rudy Gobert news changed sports scene exponentially, especially in baseball. We now have gone from suspension of Cactus League to teams being allowed to hold workouts to now players being sent home. No way season is only being delayed two weeks.

He should get a medal for demonstrating what being an ass gets you.

[mraynrand]

Is Rudy Gobert dead yet?

[pbmax]

Is Rudy Gobert dead yet?

Not yet. But between the traveling media, his opponents and teammates, I'd definitely hire extra security.

[texaspackerbacker]

Not to mention 100 million or so fans he fucked things up for.

[smuggler]

I wouldn't be surprised if someone ends up killing Rudy Gobert. Especially if one of the people he infected ends up dying.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Golf is hit too, not sure who cares. They originally were gonna play this weekends tournament without fans in the stands, but have now cancelled the event, as well as about the next month plus, including delay of the Masters.

[mraynrand]

I wouldn't be surprised if someone ends up killing Rudy Gobert. Especially if one of the people he infected ends up dying.

I was getting at something different. I’ll hazard a bet that he and no one around him dies nor gets more than mildly sick. Unless they are ancient and/or have serious medical issues already.

[sharpe1027]

I was getting at something different. I’ll hazard a bet that he and no one around him dies nor gets more than mildly sick. Unless they are ancient and/or have serious medical issues already.

Safe bet.

[ThunderDan]

I wouldn't be surprised if someone ends up killing Rudy Gobert. Especially if one of the people he infected ends up dying.

I would be extremely surprised. Rudy manned up said he was stupid and said please use me as an example of what not to do. He apologized and admitted his mistake.

[pbmax]

Now they want to give him a medal.

Jason Wilde @jasonjwilde
“Honestly,” said one sports executive, sounding drained. “Rudy Gobert saved America. He really did.”

This is the terrific
@bruce_arthur column we referenced today on @WildeAndTausch

https://www.thestar.com/sports/2020/03/12/an-accidental-hero-makes-north-america-sit-up-and-take-notice-of-the-coronavirus.html

[Fosco33]

Watched slippery stair race w/ hot college girls on espn2 this AM. Not gonna lie - more entertaining than women’s b-ball.

[run pMc]

Watched slippery stair race w/ hot college girls on espn2 this AM. Not gonna lie - more entertaining than women’s b-ball.

Kinda sad I missed that.

LOL

They could probably televise "Drunk Games" or "Lingerie League" and their ratings might improve. Those screaming heads on the ESPN aren't worth watching anyway.

[Packgator]

Deaths in Italy since Wednesday. Most are elderly. We are running two (or so) weeks behind Italy.

Wed...….167
Thurs....198
Fri...…...251
Sat...…..???

Ten people an hour died in Italy on Friday.

Spain going on lockdown today. France and Germany next?

Apple closing all stores world wide (except for China). Others stores to follow similar to what we saw with sports Thursday and Friday?

[mraynrand]

Atlanta Falcons
@AtlantaFalcons
Our offices will be closed until March 27 in the wake of the COVID-19 situation.


lol. They are re-opening when it is 3-28

[mraynrand]

"AMC theaters is limiting all movie screenings to 50% capacity through the end of April."


"To increase social distancing, we are running the most recent 'Charlie's Angels' movie on a loop" says Cinemark official in response.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

"AMC theaters is limiting all movie screenings to 50% capacity through the end of April."


"To increase social distancing, we are running the most recent 'Charlie's Angels' movie on a loop" says Cinemark official in response.

France just announced closure of all theaters, restaurants and bars in the country.

[mraynrand]

Myra MacDonald
@myraemacdonald

I'd not heard this before. French head of ER explaining why Italy suffered so badly. i) Italy has poor primary care so everyone went to hospital ii) Covid-19 patients then got mixed in with other patients. iii) Failure to isolate patients suspected of having the virus.

In French:
https://twitter.com/Cdanslair/status/1238519031830917120

[mraynrand]

NCAA basketball
·
1 hour ago
Rick Pitino is returning to college basketball as Iona coach


Good luck getting through the quarantine!

[red]

Good luck getting through the quarantine!

isn't he, or shouldn't he be banned for life?

[pbmax]

"AMC theaters is limiting all movie screenings to 50% capacity through the end of April."


"To increase social distancing, we are running the most recent 'Charlie's Angels' movie on a loop" says Cinemark official in response.

I don’t know about that movie, but I do want to see blonde Kristin Stewart in the underwater one.

[pbmax]

Good luck getting through the quarantine!

Rick met a hot waitress in New Rochelle. He had to go back, safety be damned.

[pbmax]

France just announced closure of all theaters, restaurants and bars in the country.

I have been trying to imagine Wisconsin closing bars. Gonna be tough sledding.

[call_me_ishmael]

I bet Black Widow gets delayed. Disney ain't gonna waste a billion dollar opportunity here.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

I don’t know about that movie, but I do want to see blonde Kristin Stewart in the underwater one.

Watch from home. I watched it on putlocker.com a couple weeks ago in pretty good quality. Spoiler alert, she was hot.

[mraynrand]

Watch from home. I watched it on putlocker.com a couple weeks ago in pretty good quality. Spoiler alert, she was hot.

Isn't she totally butch/bitch in that movie? Looks Sigourney Weaver/Aliens 3 awful to me.

[pbmax]

Watch from home. I watched it on putlocker.com a couple weeks ago in pretty good quality. Spoiler alert, she was hot.

Yeah, I was surprised that I liked that look that much in the trailer.

[pbmax]

Isn't she totally butch/bitch in that movie? Looks Sigourney Weaver/Aliens 3 awful to me.

I generally find trapped on ship (underwater, space) movies very watchable. But the attraction was her look, not the horror plot that the trailer advertised.

[Joemailman]

Will coronavirus mean end of the Lambeau Leap?

https://media1.giphy.com/media/l4JyNp6Ozs6BJWbF6/giphy.gif?cid=790b761135b69a28df7e126deed875b864e3 8df49443b02c&rid=giphy.gif

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Isn't she totally butch/bitch in that movie? Looks Sigourney Weaver/Aliens 3 awful to me.

Not totally butch, more like tom boy butch, but again, basically hot. At least I thought so.

[mraynrand]

I generally find trapped on ship (underwater, space) movies very watchable. But the attraction was her look, not the horror plot that the trailer advertised.

Shaved head Sigourney Weaver is nasty.

[mraynrand]

On this day 2064 years ago Julius Caesar should have worked from home.

[pbmax]

On this day 2064 years ago Julius Caesar should have worked from home.

Beware the Ides of Spring Training

[pbmax]

Shaved head Sigourney Weaver is nasty.

Nah, don't agree. Didn't like the movie though.

[mraynrand]

Nah, don't agree.

Ew. To each their own I guess.

[Joemailman]

NFL Draft will proceed April 23-25 but without the public events.


The NFL announced Monday that the 2020 draft will proceed as scheduled April 23-25 and will be televised, but the annual selection process will no longer include public events in Las Vegas due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell explained in a news release that the decision to cancel events in Las Vegas was made with guidance from medical experts such as the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), and in coordination with public authorities in Nevada and Las Vegas.

The league also said that it is currently exploring "innovative options for how the process will be conducted and will provide that information as it becomes available."

"This decision reflects our foremost priority -- the health and safety of all fans and citizens," Goodell in a statement. "While this outcome is disappointing both to the NFL and to the Las Vegas community, we look forward to partnering with the Raiders, the City of Las Vegas and the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority for a future NFL Draft as well as evaluating opportunities for other major NFL events in Las Vegas in the future, including the Super Bowl."

[pbmax]

Just let Norm MacDonald host the whole thing by himself.

[mraynrand]

Just let Norm MacDonald host the whole thing by himself.

Absolutely.

[Joemailman]

NEW YORK -- Major League Baseball pushed back opening day until mid-May at the earliest on Monday because of the new coronavirus after the federal government recommended restricting events of more than 50 people for the next eight weeks.

Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred made the announcement following a conference call with executives of the 30 teams.

"The clubs remain committed to playing as many games as possible when the season begins," the commissioner's office said in a statement.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Sunday that gatherings of 50 people or more be canceled or postponed across the country for the next eight weeks.

"The opening of the 2020 regular season will be pushed back in accordance with that guidance," Manfred said.

No telling at this point when games will start. The All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on July 14 could be in jeopardy..

[pbmax]

Haudricourt said people inside baseball are telling him it’s Mid-June to July 4th

[pbmax]

State of Wisconsin is thinking 8 weeks of cancellations and that is mid May before you finish abbreviated spring training.

[hoosier]

There's not going to be games with fans this season.

[MadScientist]

No telling at this point when games will start. The All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on July 14 could be in jeopardy.
Could have the season start with the All Star Game. That would be unique in sports.

[pbmax]

Could have the season start with the All Star Game. That would be unique in sports.

Keon Broxton, making strong bid for All-Star game with strong May in Rec League Softball.

[Fosco33]

Derby to Labor Day...

[pbmax]

Now this is a good idea. Here is the link: https://twitter.com/NFLMedia/status/1240354679038459904


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETaeo60XkAQ0tEY?format=jpg&name=small

[pbmax]

Journal Sentinel @journalsentinel
200 at Children's Hospital tested for coronavirus after doctor tests positive

JSO: https://t.co/w8bakHlfAp?amp=1

The reason you take extraordinary measures early is the reduce the hit that hospitals take when the numbers get high. Doctors, nurses and caregivers getting sick is one of the problems. This is another.

[call_me_ishmael]

Jesus fuck. The rumor on the Milwaukee Slack group is this was a doctor who worked with kids with auto-immune disorders. Fuck.

[mraynrand]

Michael Irvin
@michaelirvin88
· 2h
Since I am not a beer drinker. Maybe it’s just me. But I believe that ⁦@corona⁩ beer SHOULD NOT be running their commercials at this time. Sorry I don’t want to hear how a Corona gets it’s lime while the Coronavirus is getting lives.

Never forget that celebrities and sports figures always have the best takes in times of crisis.

[Smidgeon]

Never forget that celebrities and sports figures always have the best takes in times of crisis.

Maybe if Corona was the brand of cocaine, Irvin would have more insight on appropriate marketing...

[Joemailman]

Sean Payton has tested positive.

No word yet on how many people may have been exposed. New Orleans, if that's where he is, has been pretty bad.

[pbmax]

Several cities seeing exponential growth as testing ramps up. NYC was at 300+ identified cases 3 days ago, now 3000+ and expected to hit 5,000 tomorrow.

Community transmission is now about everywhere, so travel restrictions will be effective only in stopping a wave from kicking off again, not stopping the current one.

The most worrisome number I have seen in the last few days is 0.9. Despite about the best and most expansive testing, South Korea (as of 3-4 days ago) was at 0.9 deaths per 100, versus 0.1 for flu. Still seems likely to come down (experts expect somewhere around .2-.3 still), but testing hasn't caught it yet.

[mraynrand]

testing is going up exponentially



Sean Payton has tested positive.

No worries, Taysom Hill is a better coach.

[texaspackerbacker]

The number and/or percentage of cases is far less relevant than the number and/or percentage of deaths or permanent damage to bodies, especially among people not already at death's doorstep. And that number and percentage is virtually zero except among people who are way far gone to begin with. Sure, it's tragic even when those people die, but the quarantine and extreme measures to prevent spreading should be of them, not of regular people being forced to sacrifice and suffer. There was none of this bullshit overreaction for annual flu or H1N1 or SARS or any other maladies that caused tens of thousands of deaths compared to this which is still in the 100s.

[pbmax]

testing is going up exponentially




No worries, Taysom Hill is a better coach.

Not sure about total number of tests. There is still no mass produced kit available. This is all internal testing at hospitals and clinics in labs. They can't scale up at the speed a self contained kit would allow.

Taysom Hill would have been prepared.

https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/church-china-combat-coronavirus

[pbmax]

The number and/or percentage of cases is far less relevant than the number and/or percentage of deaths or permanent damage to bodies, especially among people not already at death's doorstep. And that number and percentage is virtually zero except among people who are way far gone to begin with. Sure, it's tragic even when those people die, but the quarantine and extreme measures to prevent spreading should be of them, not of regular people being forced to sacrifice and suffer. There was none of this bullshit overreaction for annual flu or H1N1 or SARS or any other maladies that caused tens of thousands of deaths compared to this which is still in the 100s.

Can you not honestly work out why the annual flu is different from a "novel virus"? I mean there are 4 BIG things that the words "annual flu" and "novel virus" tell you without having to do any research. Just use your noodle.

Community spread has already begun. China got word out late. Sheltered elderly are already being infected at their places of care. Tex, you are about 6 weeks behind. According to Johns Hopkins database, mortality rate now, without widespread testing, is 1.3%. That number will likely come down, but its going to get worse before it gets better.

[Smidgeon]

There are also currently more deaths from Covid than there were total cases of SARS. So the scales are different too.

[George Cumby]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Cheesehead Craig]

Funny how many NBA players are getting tested. $$$ buys better health care.

[texaspackerbacker]

Can you not honestly work out why the annual flu is different from a "novel virus"? I mean there are 4 BIG things that the words "annual flu" and "novel virus" tell you without having to do any research. Just use your noodle.

Community spread has already begun. China got word out late. Sheltered elderly are already being infected at their places of care. Tex, you are about 6 weeks behind. According to Johns Hopkins database, mortality rate now, without widespread testing, is 1.3%. That number will likely come down, but its going to get worse before it gets better.

What 6 weeks behind? The figures I gave were as recent as yesterday when I posted them last night. Yes, it's spreading within "communities" - most notably those nursing homes. Keeping it out of any of those after the earliest ones would have been a great idea, but that ship has sailed. Confining it to those places and saving as many people there is about the best you can do now. The point is, anybody below age 60 or 70 who doesn't have some serious underlying condition has very light or no symptoms. And no, the mortality rate is not gonna get worse before it gets better. Just several days ago, it as about 2.5%; Now, 1.3% - your figure, almost certainly on downward from there.

There is absolutely ZERO indication that depriving people of spectator sports or shutting down schools is gonna have any benefit for sick and old people getting the virus and dying of it. And if a lot of young and/or healthy get it, so what. The symptoms are so mild, often nonexistent that they are meaningless anyway in comparison to the enforced sacrifice and suffering we are having inflicted on us.

[QBME]

There are also currently more deaths from Covid than there were total cases of SARS. So the scales are different too.

A very insightful observation. If anybody is paying attention to the stuff that matters.

[call_me_ishmael]

Funny how many NBA players are getting tested. $$$ buys better health care.

Also sort of incredible how the NBA led, and was frankly more prepared, then the federal government here. Crazy.

[texaspackerbacker]

There are also currently more deaths from Covid than there were total cases of SARS. So the scales are different too.

Not quite true. There were 8,000 SARS cases in the U.S. and thankfully, just 30 deaths. But how about H1N1 aka Swine Flu - more than 12,000 American deaths? Or Hong Kong flu - I couldn't find a figure for the U.S., but the death toll was between 25 and 50 million worldwide. You conveniently left out those geometrically worse events which didn't bring any hysterical overreaction like we've seen for this corona thing.

[QBME]

Not quite true. There were 8,000 SARS cases in the U.S. and thankfully, just 30 deaths. But how about H1N1 aka Swine Flu - more than 12,000 American deaths? Or Hong Kong flu - I couldn't find a figure for the U.S., but the death toll was between 25 and 50 million worldwide. You conveniently left out those geometrically worse events which didn't bring any hysterical overreaction like we've seen for this corona thing.

8,000 cases worldwide, not US :https://www.healthline.com/health-news/has-anything-changed-since-the-2003-sars-outbreak

A whopping 8 cases confirmed in US.

Go check your toilet paper and ammunition stock piles.

[Joemailman]

Sent in renewal of my Gold package season tickets earlier this week. Wouldn't rule out that they'll have to refund my money eventually.

[QBME]

Not quite true. There were 8,000 SARS cases in the U.S. and thankfully, just 30 deaths. But how about H1N1 aka Swine Flu - more than 12,000 American deaths? Or Hong Kong flu - I couldn't find a figure for the U.S., but the death toll was between 25 and 50 million worldwide. You conveniently left out those geometrically worse events which didn't bring any hysterical overreaction like we've seen for this corona thing.

And this from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html

Go take a stroll in the fresh air.

[texaspackerbacker]

I have to give you that one hahahahaha. What have you got to say about the comparison to H1N1, Hong Kong Flu, Spanish Flu, regular unnamed flu, traffic accidents, murders, drug overdoses, etc.? We didn't panic and shutdown sports or schools or restaurants or much of anything else for those.

[pbmax]

What 6 weeks behind? The figures I gave were as recent as yesterday when I posted them last night. Yes, it's spreading within "communities" - most notably those nursing homes. Keeping it out of any of those after the earliest ones would have been a great idea, but that ship has sailed. Confining it to those places and saving as many people there is about the best you can do now. The point is, anybody below age 60 or 70 who doesn't have some serious underlying condition has very light or no symptoms. And no, the mortality rate is not gonna get worse before it gets better. Just several days ago, it as about 2.5%; Now, 1.3% - your figure, almost certainly on downward from there.

There is absolutely ZERO indication that depriving people of spectator sports or shutting down schools is gonna have any benefit for sick and old people getting the virus and dying of it. And if a lot of young and/or healthy get it, so what. The symptoms are so mild, often nonexistent that they are meaningless anyway in comparison to the enforced sacrifice and suffering we are having inflicted on us.

The post I was responding to had no figures in it.

I was responding to the idea that slowing the spread in the general population did not help those at risk. Its not just retirement communities and nursing homes that have to be closed off. People come into contact with the compromised and elderly everywhere. Say, in your own home. You can't close a limited number of those institutions and slow the spread. You have to act widely to have an impact.

So that means the largest gatherings are the first places to stop.

[pbmax]

There is absolutely ZERO indication that depriving people of spectator sports or shutting down schools is gonna have any benefit for sick and old people getting the virus and dying of it. And if a lot of young and/or healthy get it, so what. The symptoms are so mild, often nonexistent that they are meaningless anyway in comparison to the enforced sacrifice and suffering we are having inflicted on us.

Here are some details on your zero indication. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51915302

1. It's just the flu!: The modelling projected that if the UK did nothing, 81% of people would be infected and 510,000 would die from coronavirus by August.

2. Mitigation (some social distancing mainly of the vulnerable): would still result in about 250,000 deaths and completely overwhelm intensive care in the NHS.

3. Suppression (what Wisconsin is doing* plus possible closure to non essential travel): The report concludes "suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time". It is hoped deaths could be limited to the thousands or tens of thousands.

The analysis estimated the limits of intensive care would be "exceeded by at least eight-fold" even under the most optimistic mitigation plans.

As for the "its just the flu crowd".

They said coronavirus was the most serious public health threat seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 flu pandemic - known as the Spanish flu. The Spanish flu, first diagnosed in Kansas on a military base, is thought to have originated elsewhere. Britain, France and China being the most commonly named.


* Don't know where other states are with this, but Wisconsin has closed all schools and college campuses. Restaurants are doing curbside and takeout only, bars malls and churches are closed and gatherings are limited to 10 people.

More details on that Imperial College report here: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-report-us-uk-strategies-e45bc5d4-d2f1-40e2-825e-429b2b7c1b50.html

[George Cumby]

I actually don't gaf if certain folks dgaf and won't protect themselves. Unfortunately, they jeopardize everyone else in the process.

It's a really weird, nihilistic and very dangerous I DONT CARE ABOUT YOU, FUCK YOU! mindset.

[mraynrand]

what's happening in South Korea today

Try running the models assuming the virus was a month ahead of what they are showing. Then at least 10 million in the US have already been infected and recovered.

It's entirely possible that the distinctions we're seeing are due to different country demographics. For example, in China (and other countries) the rate for elderly death is dramatically higher (as much as 10-20x) for men. Not surprisingly, men in those countries smoke much more than women. Also, countries with ten times higher air pollution than the US, with endemic emphysema, and other respiratory ailments are seeing higher incidents of RESPIRATORY complications to what is a respiratory flu virus.

Yes, this is another flu virus, which has a specific preferred target, both biologically and demographically. If China lied about when it originally got out (early December as opposed to early January), then the estimates of spread are totally off, and what we're seeing now are the second wave effects of a virus that millions have already been exposed to, and we're seeing a focus on the most acute cases in the most susceptible places and on the most susceptible demographic.

174 have died in the US so far, and millions may have been exposed. In the past three weeks, 2000 have died from typical seasonal flu.

[mraynrand]

It's a really weird, nihilistic and very dangerous I DONT CARE ABOUT YOU, FUCK YOU! mindset.

hey, you noticed! (this is nothing new, we're just getting an opportunity to see it). Maybe a good question to ask is what has changed in the past decades to increase nihilism and solipsism.

[pbmax]

China has succeeded (if we choose to believe their reported numbers) through serious suppression of personal interaction and travel. Road blocks, quarantines in house, etc.

South Korea has succeeded with mitigation because it has tested a significant portion of its population quickly. 270,000 tests of 50 million people. It has not closed down cities to do so.

The US has tested (according to the COVID-19 Tracking Project) 104,000 people in a population of 327 million. And so much of that testing is being done in large cities (or those with large research hospitals and lab capacity) that there is a lot of the country we don't know about yet.

I hope we are on the backend of the wave. But I have not seen much to indicate it. Last nights data upload to Johns Hopkins site pushed the mortality rate up again. But its collecting data from multiple public records, so the time frames on reporting might not align with each other. 205 death according to them as of this AM.

[call_me_ishmael]

https://twitter.com/rauchg/status/1239416843657306112


Update from
@zeithq
's engineer
@shuding_
who is in Wuhan:
◆ �� He's been quarantined for 56 days
◆ �� Only 4 new cases in all of Wuhan yesterday
◆ �� 0 new cases in his district in a row for the last 7d
◆ �� Govt might let people out incrementally upon 14d of no new cases

Really important to note that China locked it the fuck down. Martial law, the whole 9. This dude has been locked in his apartment for 60 days now. He won't get out for at least 14 days at a bare minimum. 74 days locked up at a minimum!!! That's _alot_ to say the least. I am not sure the USA is prepared to take such measures but I think that is what it's going to take to crack this nut.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Self-edited.

Will debunk Prof Rand in FYI.

[MadtownPacker]

I feel for the elders who this is most dangerous to.

Putting me out of my misery would be a kindness at this point.

[mraynrand]

Putting me out of my misery would be a kindness at this point.

Sorry dude. I have days like that too. Hope the majority of your days are good.

[MadtownPacker]

I know we have had our battles but your words are appreciated.

[call_me_ishmael]

Anybody think the oddly good numbers out of Japan are directly correlated and untrustworthy due to the olympics? I just can’t see it happening. Hope I’m wrong. They did say Fuck Zika.

[bobblehead]

https://twitter.com/rauchg/status/1239416843657306112



Really important to note that China locked it the fuck down. Martial law, the whole 9. This dude has been locked in his apartment for 60 days now. He won't get out for at least 14 days at a bare minimum. 74 days locked up at a minimum!!! That's _alot_ to say the least. I am not sure the USA is prepared to take such measures but I think that is what it's going to take to crack this nut.

They also shot and burned about 20,000 people with the virus so the official death number wasn't included....death by bullet is a different category. Business people I know claim that their were over 6000 bodies burned in wuhan in a 3 week period in December. Satellite images and air samples of sulfur dioxide back that claim up. One "whistleblower" claimed it was much more than 6k. Something like 1200 a day for god only knows how long. Believe nothing coming out of china.

[bobblehead]

Can you not honestly work out why the annual flu is different from a "novel virus"? I mean there are 4 BIG things that the words "annual flu" and "novel virus" tell you without having to do any research. Just use your noodle.

Community spread has already begun. China got word out late. Sheltered elderly are already being infected at their places of care. Tex, you are about 6 weeks behind. According to Johns Hopkins database, mortality rate now, without widespread testing, is 1.3%. That number will likely come down, but its going to get worse before it gets better.

The most accurate statistical breakdown I have seen said that without drastic measures the death totals would have been 200k to 400k. Compare that to the annual flu which is 15k to 30k and you see the difference. Part of that is its more deadly and part of that is that its more easily transmissible. The entirely most conservative estimate with standard warnings and high alert measures only came it at about 90k.

[bobblehead]

Also sort of incredible how the NBA led, and was frankly more prepared, then the federal government here. Crazy.

They had a player get infected. They were not prepared at all. They had zero choice but to shut it down. Rudy played against 5 teams in the interim. The only other choice was to quarantine 6 total teams and somehow play on. This is a ridiculous take.