NFL Drafting Efficiency, 2010-2019

[pbmax]

Great article about how teams capitalize on the NFL Draft. They use Chase Stuart's draft pick value chart (not Jimmy Johnson's), they calculate how much value the sum of their picks in the decade have represented.

He then does a calculation the purpose for which I am not sure I understand.


However, since we will want to compare drafts from different years to each other, we need to normalize these values so we can compare different years fairly. So each draft position is converted from an expected CarAV into a percentage of the total expected CarAV of the entire draft.

He is taking each picks Average Value (off the Stuart chart) and then making them a function of a team's entire draft class for the year. I am not sure how that helps year to year comparisons, but there is it. Its turns the picks expected career AV into an expected percentage of that draft class's AV. It tells you how heavily that players weighs on that class' expected performance.

The Packers, as you can surmise from the two main charts, don't have a ton of draft capital. Gute has traded up even in years where the Packers pick early in each round. But most of this is just the residue of playing all for most of the decade.

But they are Top 5 in gathering draft value from that capital.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

[mraynrand]

I like the direction we're headed. With more analysis like this applied across the entire span of NFL stat categories, I bet we can award the Super Bowl trophy without ever playing a single game. Side benefit: no concussions.

[pbmax]

I like the direction we're headed. With more analysis like this applied across the entire span of NFL stat categories, I bet we can award the Super Bowl trophy without ever playing a single game. Side benefit: no concussions.

If teams (or fan message boards) could predict a college players future Average Value, we'd be a big step of the way there :D

Alas, not even Bill Polian or Bretsy are there yet.

In case anyone was curious, Chase Stuart's draft pick value boad is here (version 2, circa 2012) https://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/

[ThunderDan]

Interesting read.

Seems to point that our drafting has gone down since Gute took over. TT was really good early and was falling to average at the end of his term.

[Upnorth]

That was my take away when I read it as well TD.
I was hoping gute would do well but more and more analysis has me wondering.

[red]

One thing in defense of gute, is that he uses free agency, so he doesn’t need to hit on all his picks like TT had to do

He can maybe throw away a 4th round pick in order to trade up because he doesn’t need that 4th rounder to be a starter for the next few years

[mraynrand]

If teams (or fan message boards) could predict a college players future Average Value, we'd be a big step of the way there :D



Need to make this happen. Maybe like Asimov’s psychohistory we could have the next 100 seasons totally figured out beforehand. Would save me a lot of time.

[pbmax]

Need to make this happen. Maybe like Asimov’s psychohistory we could have the next 100 seasons totally figured out beforehand. Would save me a lot of time.

Condensed viewing games would be even shorter.

[ThunderDan]

One thing in defense of gute, is that he uses free agency, so he doesn’t need to hit on all his picks like TT had to do

He can maybe throw away a 4th round pick in order to trade up because he doesn’t need that 4th rounder to be a starter for the next few years

Except you run out of cap space a lot quicker using FA unless you are signing bottom of the barrel players. You are always paying market price for your players instead of getting the 1st 4 or 5 years on their rookie contract.

[pbmax]

Except you run out of cap space a lot quicker using FA unless you are signing bottom of the barrel players. You are always paying market price for your players instead of getting the 1st 4 or 5 years on their rookie contract.

Yep. FA should be for filling in misses on draft picks on second contracts (defensive signings last year), scheme changes/fits (Amos also) and perhaps veteran depth (Tramontana, Funchess).

[red]

Except you run out of cap space a lot quicker using FA unless you are signing bottom of the barrel players. You are always paying market price for your players instead of getting the 1st 4 or 5 years on their rookie contract.

im not sure this is much of a problem anymore

you rarely hear of teams being in cap hell. even when teams do get up against the cap and would like to make other moves, there always seems to be a guy or two that can be cut that don't really bring much to the table, but clear up a lot of room

i think teams are getting much better at managing their cap. i mean look at the cowboys, they seem to be at the cap every season, yet somehow they always manage to sign more free agents (not saying the cowboy way is better, just that they can do it)

[smuggler]

Only the Patriots. You know, the team that didn't have any cap space to sign one of the greatest players to ever play this sport this offseason.

[RashanGary]

And the Vikings who lost half their defense and will be lucky to win 7 games this year.

[bobblehead]

Great article about how teams capitalize on the NFL Draft. They use Chase Stuart's draft pick value chart (not Jimmy Johnson's), they calculate how much value the sum of their picks in the decade have represented.

He then does a calculation the purpose for which I am not sure I understand.



He is taking each picks Average Value (off the Stuart chart) and then making them a function of a team's entire draft class for the year. I am not sure how that helps year to year comparisons, but there is it. Its turns the picks expected career AV into an expected percentage of that draft class's AV. It tells you how heavily that players weighs on that class' expected performance.

The Packers, as you can surmise from the two main charts, don't have a ton of draft capital. Gute has traded up even in years where the Packers pick early in each round. But most of this is just the residue of playing all for most of the decade.

But they are Top 5 in gathering draft value from that capital.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

Haven't read past this post, but I would say this. Eliminate the last 2 drafts by Gutes and the 8 year average of TT is the second best.

I think this is hard to quantify though, because opinions factor in so heavily. I prefer to look at wins...you know, the reason they play.

[bobblehead]

One thing in defense of gute, is that he uses free agency, so he doesn’t need to hit on all his picks like TT had to do

He can maybe throw away a 4th round pick in order to trade up because he doesn’t need that 4th rounder to be a starter for the next few years

yea, he did really well spending the cap money TT left him. Now how did he do in his second year of FA??

[bobblehead]

im not sure this is much of a problem anymore

you rarely hear of teams being in cap hell. even when teams do get up against the cap and would like to make other moves, there always seems to be a guy or two that can be cut that don't really bring much to the table, but clear up a lot of room

i think teams are getting much better at managing their cap. i mean look at the cowboys, they seem to be at the cap every season, yet somehow they always manage to sign more free agents (not saying the cowboy way is better, just that they can do it)

The cowboy method of overpaying, being in cap hell, cutting the guy they overpaid and then overpaying a different guy...yea, it can be done.

[Smidgeon]

im not sure this is much of a problem anymore

you rarely hear of teams being in cap hell. even when teams do get up against the cap and would like to make other moves, there always seems to be a guy or two that can be cut that don't really bring much to the table, but clear up a lot of room

i think teams are getting much better at managing their cap. i mean look at the cowboys, they seem to be at the cap every season, yet somehow they always manage to sign more free agents (not saying the cowboy way is better, just that they can do it)

We'll see next year. It seems GB have a few players that could cost a Top 5 contract (Clark, Bahk, Jones) plus at least one other they might not want to replace quite yet because the position is so hard to fill (King). Hopefully they have it all figured out though.

[call_me_ishmael]

I didn't actually read the article (no time) but what is the criteria of a good pick here? Games started? Relative guarantee size of second contract? What, exactly? Packers had a lot of starters but most of them were ass.

[pbmax]

I didn't actually read the article (no time) but what is the criteria of a good pick here? Games started? Relative guarantee size of second contract? What, exactly? Packers had a lot of starters but most of them were ass.

Average Value is the measure: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

[Upnorth]

We'll see next year. It seems GB have a few players that could cost a Top 5 contract (Clark, Bahk, Jones) plus at least one other they might not want to replace quite yet because the position is so hard to fill (King). Hopefully they have it all figured out though.

I full expect jones to be gone. Unless dillion is a rashan gary

[Smidgeon]

I full expect jones to be gone. Unless dillion is a rashan gary

You don't even know if Rashan Gary is a Rashan Gary. It takes three years. And Gary still had good pressure numbers for the amount of snaps he had. But that's beside the point.

Even if Jones is gone, that's Top 3 money to Clark and Bahk. That's a lot of $. And they both deserve it.

[Upnorth]

The rg comment was me trying to be funny and passive aggressive. Something i guess i need to learn better from my wife

[texaspackerbacker]

Clark is a must-keep. Jones is almost a must-keep. The only reasons he might not be are the tendency of RBs to not last long and the fact that we have several other quality RBs. Bakhtiari, as I've said before, I don't have a high opinion of and I really hope he doesn't get anywhere near a max deal. There doesn't seem to be much love in here for Linsley, who to me is a helluva lot better lineman than Bakhtiari.

[Joemailman]

I full expect jones to be gone. Unless dillion is a rashan gary

Don't know if Dillon is Rashan Gary. But he's not Eddie Lacy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaMebBtWsAAGlZi?format=jpg&name=medium

[Radagast]

I don't believe that any could mistake A.J. Dillon for Eddie Lacey, however the hope is he will meet or exceed Lacey in his prime.

I also suspect that this season will be Rashan Gary's last chance to live up to his #1 pick status.

Jordan Love will, if his luck holds, get 3 to 4 years to transition to the pro game. Additionally, I never expect much from Rookie QBs in preseason or as sophomores either.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Don't know if Dillon is Rashan Gary. But he's not Eddie Lacy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaMebBtWsAAGlZi?format=jpg&name=medium

As I ain’t queer, I ain’t look below the head at the body. Looks like Dillion has the male baldness thing.

Poor man’s Brandon Jacobs. Can Dillion play the Mike?

[pbmax]

Don't know if Dillon is Rashan Gary. But he's not Eddie Lacy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/medium


Eddie often looked good in the offseason. Just saying.

[mraynrand]

Eddie often looked good in the offseason. Just saying.

Porn builds muscle.

[Joemailman]

Eddie often looked good in the offseason. Just saying.

Actually, I think it happened once, but it didn't last long.

[Zool]

Actually, I think it happened once, but it didn't last long.

Remember the first day of training camp belly pics?

[wist43]

All this thread proves is that I'm a better evaluator of talent than every GM in the NFL :)

[mraynrand]

Actually, I think it happened once, but it didn't last long.

Are you referring to Lacy in the strip club?

[red]

You don't even know if Rashan Gary is a Rashan Gary. It takes three years. And Gary still had good pressure numbers for the amount of snaps he had. But that's beside the point.

Even if Jones is gone, that's Top 3 money to Clark and Bahk. That's a lot of $. And they both deserve it.

through 3 years of college and 1 year as a pro gary hasn't come close to being the "stud" that many thought or think he will be

[red]

Don't know if Dillon is Rashan Gary. But he's not Eddie Lacy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaMebBtWsAAGlZi?format=jpg&name=medium

well, he doesn't have a platter of bacon cheese burgers in his hands, so thats good