Upcoming contracts

[RashanGary]

Free agents after this year.

Bakhtiari 29 (durable probowl level player at hard to find position)

Aaron Jones 25 (pro diet/workout made him seem more durable. Dillon might be able to replace. Jamal is a good 3rd down back and should be cheap)

Corey Linsley 29 (durable probowl level player at easiest to replace position)

Kevin King (oft injured and servicable with potential for really good)

Jamal Williams (durable. Pass pro extraordinaire makes his 3rd down presence an impact. Chemistry with 12 makes him even more impactful for the Packers on passing downs. Good route runner. Great screen player. Again, ideal for 3rd downs with 12, and should be cheap.)

Lane Taylor

Mercedes Lewis

Tyler Ervin - more insurance for Jones

Will Redmond

Montravious Adams



Players who can be cut to save money

Preston Smith 8m saved in y1, 16m in year 2

Christian Kirksey 6m saved in y1, contract ends

Adrian Amos 4.5m saved in y1, 10m in year 2

Rick Wagner 4m saved in y1, contract final after that

Billy Turner 3.5m saved in y1, 8m in year 2


Preston is our only OLB who can cover and pass rush. Would be hard to get rid of our only complete edge player. But..... Z and an emerging Gary along with the possibility that the Packers really like Ramsey and/or Garvin do make this possible with such a big savings coming from the decision.

Kirksey looks like an easy bye bye. Injury prone. Still. Couldn’t run down Kirk Cousins. Don’t have much at ILB but you’re probably about as good with Barnes as Kirksey.

Amos. Maybe you can keep Redmond and Greene for cheap and just part ways with a solid but high paid player.

Wagner or Turner looks obvious. One should probably go. Probably Wagner. But if you let Bakh go, maybe you keep both so the OL has stability in all places except LT. I think Wagner is the better player and cheaper so if your doctors like his health bill, maybe Turner goes.



And then it’s further complicated by the next years free agent class

Davante Adams
Allen Lazard
MVS
Jk Scott

With guys who could get a year early deal

Jaire
Elgton Jenkins
Jace and/or Keke if they perform


And then there is the Rodgers/Love question looming here too

[RashanGary]

12 is ridiculously tradable in the last year of his deal. Ridiculously tradable with a 28m salary that will amount to peanuts at that time for QB pay and possibly playing as well as any 39 year old QB in history.

There is a case to be made to sell out the cap and deal with the rebuild when 12 gets traded away.

12 loves chemistry and cohesion.
Adams
Lazard
Big bob Tonyan
Deguara seems to be a quick chemistry guy
Jace and 12 can click
Bakh is obviously important
Williams plays great with 12
MVS is getting there
Jones is there

Do you just stack the offense for 12 and make it very likely that he has a legendary last three years in Green Bay



And then


Try to keep the pass rush and secondary together



We can win a lot of games scoring 40 points and having a pass rush to make teams struggle trying to keep up. Z, Clark, Preston and Gary and maybe even Keke being a pass rusher are all here through 12s 3 year then trade contract. Alexander pretty much too.

Do ya sell out the future and win now with 12?

I say yes. Keep just about everyone and then pay for it later.

[RashanGary]

I’d rather sell out to win in these last years of his prime than try to balance the present and future. He has guys he loves playing with cuz they’re all on the same page. Breaking up the band is more destructive for 12 than most quarterbacks because of his adjustment mindset and all of the chemistry that takes.

You can either make it hard on 12 and force him to stay longer or you can go shoot for the stars and make these last three prime years great. It’s a favor for 12 to trade him when the salaries drown us and it gives us a chance for a rebuild with Love. No matter how you slice it, after three years of borrowing from the future you lose with Rodgers or lose with love. Might as well take a couple high picks as the last gift from Thompson 2005 draft and accept moving forward.

[texaspackerbacker]

I agree with you about selling out to win in these three years - keeping possibly all of the first group you mentioned above. After that, Rodgers' contract would inflate a lot? or it would end? (I think go on for 1 more year at an extremely high amount) Either way, assuming he is still extremely effective in 3 years, we ought to be able to restructure him or re-sign him for a more acceptable amount. Even after 3 years, it would probably be disastrous to lose him.

As for those expendables, yeah, they are IMO. Even Preston Smith - unless he really snaps back and improves the rest of the season can be let go. Z can play pass coverage, even though he is seldom asked to do it. Gary is the fastest of the three, and thus, he should be able to cover a short zone in the few rare instances it is necessary. I just don't see that as reason enough to keep P. Smith.

The most similar thing I can think of to a best case of trading Rodgers was when the Bucks traded Kareem - and basically parlayed that into 15 or 20 years of success. I very much doubt we would have anywhere near the success trading Rodgers, given the kind of free agency now in football compared to the NBA when Kareem was traded. Bottom line: we need to keep Rodgers in Green Bay for the rest of his career, and that needs to be well over 3 years.

[RashanGary]

Rodgers is cheap after the third year. 28m when other top qbs should be at or above 50.

Selling out for now comes at the expense of rebuilding in a few years like minny just had to do, cutting a ton of their quality players or not resigning. That's not a situation to have a 39 year old HOF QB in. Better off with picks and take chances on a young guy who will be around when the rebuild finishes.

[RashanGary]

Rodgers has the 17th highest cap hit this year at 21M
He's slated to be 3rd highest next year at 36M
He's slated to be 4th at 40 the next year
And then 11th at 28M the year after


He's expensive the next two years. You can fully sell out on the right now and restructure/extend to bring down the price in 2021 and 2022. But then you run the risk of having to.cut him.and not get any draft picks after.


So you have full sell our for now mode which would.be to lower Rodgers cap hits early with an extension. In which case you have to cut him when it inflates and get no draft picks

You have the mostly sell out for now option where all the other contracts are finnagled but you leave Rodgers alone and get a couple high picks in that last year

Or you have the plan for consistent winning where you be cap responsible and never have to rebuild but don't get those short term boosts you would if you sell out.



I kind of like the middle plan. Give Rodgers close to the best shot at an Owl here and still gives some control on where he goes so he doesn't end up a bear or Viking. And gets a couple draft picks to speed up the rebuild around love. It's not as careful and passive as option 3, and not as reckless and short sighted as option 1. A nice happy medium with a great shot at another ring with 12

[RashanGary]

Jones, King and bakh could all get huge signing bonuses on long term deals where you have to cut them after 12 leaves. That way you keep all 12s best guys

Adams, Lazard and MVS could get the same.the next year.


Then you keep all of team together for these last three years of 12 and deal with the consequences of losing everyone at the same time down the road. An extra 1st and 2nd round pick plus a couple tough first year's with love and high draft picks should allow you to restock the LT, DT and edge spots (toughest to fill) It's doable. Just a couple lowsy years of suffering from cap manipulation. I guess the worry is once you're on the bottom, its hard to rebuild winning culture.

[texaspackerbacker]

WHY do you persist in talking about the need to rid of Rodgers after 1, 2, or 3 years? Just keep him and absorb the $36 and $40m cap hits in the second and third years - other teams do worse with not as good players, then keep him for the $28m in the 4th year. If he is still good then, age 40, play it by ear, either re-sign him year to year for an appropriate amount based on how he is then, or maybe 2-4 years. The cap will steadily go up as the market price for QBs goes up. We can always arrange/cook things to make it work and still retain whatever other players it makes sense to retain. Or we could restructure him at the end of this season with a fairly cap friendly fairly long term deal that either goes to completion or ends with him retiring or being cut in maybe 4, 5, 6, or 7 years if his play deteriorates, as I doubt it will even well into his 40s.

I have always HATED the idea in any sport of the team I'm a fan of doing a total rebuild (which I certainly don't see the Vikings doing this year). You can almost always rebuild on the fly and stay near the top.

[RashanGary]

We always here the ”keep everyone” conversation and just bend the cap as the avenue for doing that. It's opening up.the full conversation of what those contracts mean in the long run. Now might be the time.to do it though. We have a window right now. Might wanna bend the cap.

And by bend the cap it means pay the cap hit later or cut a guy later. It's just a more full picture discussion of a lot of the one liners that are thrown around here and on Twitter

[texaspackerbacker]

I didn't say keep everyone. I'm all for your original list to lose after this season. However, that money saved plus the inevitable cap increase should easily make it possible to sign the other list to cap friendly contracts, even with the massive cap hits you said in year 2 and 3 for Rodgers.

[Bretsky]

Rodgers is cheap after the third year. 28m when other top qbs should be at or above 50.

.



Your making the case of what so many of us thought....how stupid it was to draft Jordan Love when we have an elite QB who will soon be cheap and his play is still stellar

[Bretsky]

IS THERE a WAY to keep BACK and AJO next year ??

[Joemailman]

IS THERE a WAY to keep BACK and AJO next year ??

Well, you can always backload contracts so the biggest cap hits are at least a couple years from now. Kenny Clark's base salary in 2021 will be 1 million. It will be 13 million in 2023. But doing too much of that will catch up to you eventually.

[texaspackerbacker]

If the guy is still good, though, you can restructure him a second time, and do it all over again. Dead money only becomes and issue if he deteriorates and needs to be cut.

[RashanGary]

IS THERE a WAY to keep BACK and AJO next year ??

I think so, yeah. Like Joe sais, it catches up eventually. So it would be a lose a bunch of guys a few years from now cuz eventually you have to pay the piper.

In the case of this team.... AR 37, 38, 39..... If you push it back and pay the piper in 3 years, its a rebuild with a 40 year old QB. He probably won't see the rebuild.

So I think, if you start that now, you plan the rebuild around the young guy and get the best of ARs last best years now with an aggressive shot.


So.yeah, we could.keep both and king and have a really good setup again for 2021. And can do.things.to make 2022 great too. But 2023 would be a lose everyone year. Would be painful to.watch ARs last two.years.on a start over team. Best to take the picks.and roll with Love at that point.

[RashanGary]

We have such a nice window now with Clark, Z, Gary, Alexander

AR Adams Lizard a great RB group, a te group really showing up and a line.....

Now is.kind. of the time. Next two years too if you push the cap hits back and then do a rebuild. I just would.hate to see 40 year old AR in a rebuild. I'd rather see him go and finish on top and get some picks for him. Plus if we shoot our shot now we could get one or two rings in three years and that's better than zero if we kept him for 5 but let his best guys go.

An aggressive shot then a rebuild with a young guy makes.more sense than losing with 12

[Joemailman]

If the guy is still good, though, you can restructure him a second time, and do it all over again. Dead money only becomes and issue if he deteriorates and needs to be cut.

Running backs can sometimes decline pretty quickly though as they move onto late 20's.

[RashanGary]

Running backs can sometimes decline pretty quickly though as they move onto late 20's.

Yeah, and other than QBs you don't see a lot of it. To get a guy enough money to make it worth it.to the player and still.push it back. There's a limit to how much you can push without the dead cap eventually being unmanageable

[texaspackerbacker]

Running backs can sometimes decline pretty quickly though as they move onto late 20's.

hahahahaha I thought we were talking about Bakhtiari.

[texaspackerbacker]

RG, if it is handled in the best possible way, there will not be a "rebuild", and Rodgers WILL be around well past 40. As for the young guy, it was a mistake to draft him. It's remotely possible we just keep him 7 years or so as a second stringer, then he succeeds Rodgers. It is far more likely, though, that at some point before his rookie contract ends, he gets traded.

[RashanGary]

If you make tough business decisions today, there will always be enough money that you don’t have to lose a bunch at the same time. New England and Green Bay (less the time they weirdly let Heyward and Hyde go and didn’t even spend the money they had) have been pretty good at making decisions on who to keep and who to let go and not turning it into a situation where they lose a bunch at the same time.

But we’ve been talking about really going after 1 more for AR and selling out to get that one. Obvioulsy the danger is injuries. Injuries and you spend all your money, have to cut guys later and don’t win anyway because of a bad injury run or a shockingly peaking buzz saw of a team or horrible matchup.....

You’re not guaranteed to win a sb even if you sell out. But right now, Near end of ARs career.... he’s playing elite. Wouldn’t be the worst thing to take a shot right now and cut a bunch for rebuild in three years once the money catches up.

It’s an option. One I condone. Best for AR because he gets absolute best chance of a SB in his last three best years. Best for AR cuz whoever would trade for him would give him a great chance too.

Best for Packers cuz I think we would get one of the next three or even two vs zero if you always worry about the future. Best because AR would fetch a real nice pick or two in that last year. Best because it’s better to rebuild with a young QB than an old one.

[texaspackerbacker]

"really going after 1 more for AR and selling out to get that one" should not be, and I think is not the goal. The goal should be perpetual or at least long term excellence. I don't see any reason why we can't win several more Super Bowls with Rodgers. Whether we do or we don't, though, it's a helluva lot more important IMO to keep the team at or very near the top - as it has been since the early '90s. I really don't want my favorite team(s) to be like the Giants in the NFL or Marlins or Astros in MLB and various other teams that are "feast or famine" - tear down to absolutely horrible, rise back and win a championship, then tear down again, etc. I would hate that.

I absolutely want something closer to 7 years for Rodgers instead of 3 or less, and that should be very doable, cap-wise.

[Joemailman]

All year long I've been debating whether it makes sense to give big money to Aaron Jones, or let him go and have a tandem of Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon. After the Detroit game I was leaning toward Jones. After last night I could definitely see the alternative. You can't sign Jones and Williams. The salary cap wouldn't allow for it, and Williams would probably want to leave if they sign Jones. Williams is good enough to go elsewhere and either start or be part of a tandem.

[Upnorth]

I want to see more of dillion. But my instinct is Williams plus dillion plus cap savi vs is greater than or equal to jones plus dillion -

[Guiness]

I want to see more of dillion. But my instinct is Williams plus dillion plus cap savi vs is greater than or equal to jones plus dillion -

Don't understand why Dillon isn't getting a few more reps. Of course you're going to keep giving the ball to Jones, but is Dillon so much of a liability right now that they don't want him on the field? That doesn't bode well from a position that is supposed to be instant gratification through the draft.

[texaspackerbacker]

It's the absolute top priority to sign Aaron Jones. Jamal Williams is damn good, but he's very replaceable. Jones is not. The team gets a lot worse if we don't have a breakaway threat like him. I think if the cap is handled right, though, we could retain Jones and Williams both, as well as that sacred cow, Bakhtiari and Linsley too.

[RashanGary]

Jones is good at everything except goal line. Annoying to not put the battering ram in there when we only need a yard. But the running back coach is loyal to jones and williams so he doesn’t want to give Dillon the easy touchdowns.

But Dillon should absolutely get short yardage snaps. Absolutely.

[Upnorth]

Don't understand why Dillon isn't getting a few more reps. Of course you're going to keep giving the ball to Jones, but is Dillon so much of a liability right now that they don't want him on the field? That doesn't bode well from a position that is supposed to be instant gratification through the draft.

That is my concern as well and why I want to see more of him. But like rg said perhaps it is a rb coach thing. At least I hope so. The more I see our line play and how poor Williams was running the more I see jones as a priority tex until we can see more of dillion.

[texaspackerbacker]

Jones is good at everything except goal line. Annoying to not put the battering ram in there when we only need a yard. But the running back coach is loyal to jones and williams so he doesn’t want to give Dillon the easy touchdowns.

But Dillon should absolutely get short yardage snaps. Absolutely.

Dillon might be better there than Williams, but if the blocking isn't there like on the 4th and 1 play, nobody is going straight in. Jones, however, gives you another dimension even there - bouncing to somewhere that there is an opening.

I say again, Jones is unique and much harder to replace than Williams. An offense with nothing but plodders is a lot less effective and a lot less of a threat to set up the passing game than having that breakaway threat in there.

[Fritz]

You know how it is. If Dillon can't figure out the blocking, he won't be out there. And Williams is a lights-out blocker, and Jones has gotten much better. Until the kid learns the blocking schemes and shows ability and willingness, he won't play much.

I'd sign Bahk, Jones, King, in that order. Let Linsley walk, as good as he is.

[texaspackerbacker]

Make that Jones, Linsley, Bakhtiari, and Williams in that order, and let King walk. It CAN be done.

[Fritz]

Why would you sign a center over a left tackle if both are equally skilled? Are you kidding, Tex?

[texaspackerbacker]

Well, as I said, far more important than either of those is re-signing Aaron Jones.

To answer your question, I'm not all that convinced it is harder to find a quality LT than to find a quality Center. Also, even though I have grudgingly come around to the view that Bakhtiari is better than I probably thought he was, I still don't see him contributing much as a run blocker - the best plays go right over Linsley and Jenkins. And while Bakhtiari probably goes against the opponent's best pass rusher a lot, and he does a good job most of the time, most of the time even if one of the OTs miss a block, Rodgers is one of the best at just dodging the pass rusher and making the play work anyway. A pass rush up the middle on the other hand, is more difficult to deal with.

Bottom line, as I said several times, is that I want the Packers to prioritize Jones, but to manipulate the cap to keep both Linsley and Bakhtiari - and probably Williams too. Kevin King I don't care if they let go. It CAN be done.

[RashanGary]

As the season progresses, the cuts that should be made are becoming clear.

Cut Preston 8M savings in year 1. 16M/year in year 2
Cut Turner 3.5M savings in year 1. 8M/year in year 2

Those two cuts cover Bakh. I'd rather go with Bakh and Wagner than keep those two above.



Let Lindsley walk and start Patrick
Letting Lindsley go allows us to keep Aaron Jones.



Let King walk.
This finishes off the Aaron Jones contract and id also keep Jamaal Williams on a small deal. Keep the RB room stacked.


So we lose
Preston
Turner
Lindsley


We keep
Bakh
Jones
jswaggdaddy

[RashanGary]

It's not ideal. Losing guys always hurts, even if they're just decent.

But I think Z and Gary in year 2 can cover the edge spots
Kekes emergence sort of quells some of the loss of P too


King just isn't great. We won't miss him too much. The NFL allows pick plays and rubs now. They're refereeing man corners out of the league. We’ll miss him, but maybe Jackson would be barely servicable. We’ll find out now that King is injured if we have the options.


I'd also cut kirksey and go with Barnes, Kamal and Greene inside

[RashanGary]

Guys we’d be depending on stepping up:

Gary
Keke

Patrick
Wagner
Runyan (starting RG)

Sullivan (starter)
Jackson (outside in nickel or dime with Sullivan moving in)
Hollman (probably outside in dime with Alexander moving in)

Barnes
Kamal
Greene


Our biggest draft needs most likely would be
Corner (preferably starting)
DL depth
OT depth
Edge depth
ILB depth

Keeping the guys I've kept and letting go the guys I've let go.... I think our window stays open going forward. Alexander is a must keep, obviously. I'd even consider signing him to a deal two years early. It would average in the last two years of his deal so the average per year would be down even if the new money is really high.


I think they should extend Jones right now. Bakh too.

[Sparkey]

My opinion is the left side of(Bahktiari, Jenkins and Linsley) is more important than a rb. (A.Jones is a stud, but he runs a lot behind Jenkins/Linsley blocks and especially is LaFluers offense, a stud O-line makes everyone else's jobs easier.

[run pMc]

Agree with Sparkey and Fritz:

I'd sign Bahk, Jones, King, in that order. Let Linsley walk, as good as he is.

a stud O-line makes everyone else's jobs easier.

I don't think they can pay both Linsley and Bahk, and it's easier finding a C than a top shelf LT, which Bahk is. He's also been healthy and I think has a few good seasons left in him.

Jones is trickier. I am NOT in favor of paying big money to a RB, but they really don't have a lot of offensive playmakers, so losing him would be a step back. They can replace some of his productivity with Jamaal and Dillon, but he's a dynamic player that defenses prepare for. I think the hope was Dexter Williams would give them some of that and he hasn't panned out. After spending a high round pick on Dillon, do they let Jones go and pick another?

King is decent and seems to be figuring out how to stay more healthy, but I think they can draft a couple of corners and get one to fill his spot. I'd let him test the market and consider matching it if it's reasonable, but I don't know if he's worth something like $8M over 4 years.

I really like Linsley, but I get the feeling he's going to wear down faster than Bahktiari as a smaller guy in the trenches. They have Lucas Patrick, Jake Hanson, and even Jenkins who could play C, so I think he's gone. Some team needing a veteran center will snap him up and overpay him, he'll have 2 good seasons and then end up hurt all the time like Sitton/Lang.

[Zool]

Jackson is a dumpster fire. King isn’t an all-pro, but Jackson should be cut as soon as possible.

[RashanGary]

The price for King keeps going down. A. He's just playing ok and should be in his prime. B. The injuries.

King and Jamal should be low priced

[texaspackerbacker]

I say again, keeping Aaron Jones is the highest priority of those guys becoming free agents this year.

Just the same, there's absolutely no reason to sacrifice anybody who it's a good idea to keep - by that, I mean in addition to Jones, we should not have to choose; We should be able to keep both Linsley and Bakhtiari in addition to Jamal Williams.

I'm not so sure King and/or Jamal will be cheap.

We can easily afford to lose Kevin King, and Kirksey should be cut regardless of the cap situation. Preston Smith, unless he snaps back to last year's level, is very expendable too.

Josh Jackson is gonna need to show a helluva lot more than he has for me to defend him. but I'm not nearly as negative as some people about him.

[run pMc]

Food for thought:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/running-backs-are-as-replaceable-as-ever-this-year-so-why-did-kansas-city-pick-up-leveon-bell/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-secret-to-the-rams-blocking-success-isnt-the-linemen-its-sean-mcvay/

I still think Jones is a talented back and a playmaker in this offense, but I also think a solid OL takes precedence. RBs can be found/drafted, and GB has a few good ones on the roster. That's why Bahk is a higher priority in my mind than Jones. Plus, spending $15M/yr on a RB (using Kamara's contract) feels like a luxury they won't be able to afford with a shrinking cap.

[bobblehead]

I say again, keeping Aaron Jones is the highest priority of those guys becoming free agents this year.

Just the same, there's absolutely no reason to sacrifice anybody who it's a good idea to keep - by that, I mean in addition to Jones, we should not have to choose; We should be able to keep both Linsley and Bakhtiari in addition to Jamal Williams.

I'm not so sure King and/or Jamal will be cheap.

We can easily afford to lose Kevin King, and Kirksey should be cut regardless of the cap situation. Preston Smith, unless he snaps back to last year's level, is very expendable too.

Josh Jackson is gonna need to show a helluva lot more than he has for me to defend him. but I'm not nearly as negative as some people about him.

I'll say it again. Jones is zero priority whatsoever. RBs should never get big contracts if you want to win. Fair..no. Real..yes.

[texaspackerbacker]

I used to think that too - you can always go out and find some plodder or some little fast guy who falls down when they breathe on him. Aaron Jones, though, is unique. He has the speed and burst that I absolutely do NOT want the Packers to be without, but he also runs with decent power and very good durability. He would be very very hard to replace, and if we did luck into somebody as talented, odds are the guy wouldn't have the attitude and character of Jones.

Speaking of A. Jones, I see the Packers are trying out Alvin - Aaron's twin, who was an excellent DB in college but had a bunch of injuries in the NFL.

[RashanGary]

Jones gets stopped easy in short yardage. Almost complete tho

[RashanGary]

Still. I’m with bobble. Centers and RBs are a dime a doz

[texaspackerbacker]

If we had nothing but Williams and Dillon - above average, but still plodders, our rushing offense would be next to worthless. You need a speed guy - a threat to break away for a long run - for it to work.

As for Linsley or Bakhtiari, I'm hearing more and more in various interviews and press conferences coaches and players talking about Linsley's seeing the field and making calls on blocking assignments. I've given up trying to convince the Bakhtiari fans that he is not all that super, but I'd still rather take Linsley over him. We should not have to make that choice, though. We should be able to sign Jones top priority, and then both Linsley and Bakhtiari. If not, the team's "capologist" isn't doing his job.