The Official Goodbye to Aaron Jones thread

[RashanGary]

1. Only decent as pass blocker
2. Horrendous at outside zone
3. Poor in short yardage
4. Wants more than 12M


I think in the long run, the Packers want an unpredictable and diverse run offense. Inside, outside, jet sweeps, power, etc..... One of the biggest aspects of really pressing the defense is that outside zone and Jones just can’t do it. Against some teams it’s no big deal, but then at other times it’s back breaking. 14M for a guy who’s good on some weeks and devastatingly bad on others is just not making a lot of sense.

Good bye Aaron Jones.


Dillon is gonna be the every down guy of the future
Williams will be a low priced and extremely reliable 3rd down back

[call_me_ishmael]

Why would you pay a running back big bucks when Denver and Washington literally proved you can plug in anyone and have a lot of success with the Alex Gibbs system?

No way they pay Jones big bucks IMO. I agree the times are different and Jones ability to catch the ball is unique but there are lots of scat backs available that won't cost 12M via the draft.

[bobblehead]

And at the end of the first round we can get Etienne or Gainwell, or Harris to replace him. I really can't justify why you would pay him a huge contract.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

The primary objective of every offense is to score touchdowns. Jones ain’t Barry Sanders but, like Al Bundy, Jones has a penchant for scoring touchdowns. Although a bit inconsistent sometimes, paying Jones 12 mil a year for 16 TDs ain’t too bad a value.

The cap can always be cooked. Ain’t impossible to resign Jones, Bak, hell, even King, and still acquire a Prima Donna WR in free agency along with a MOFO Mike.

Cap hell? What the fuck is that? All teams will eventually be bailed out by the Networks. New Deals are imminent and inevitable.

The only Packer currently overpaid is Clark. $18 mil a year just to be a milksop, take plays off, or stay home due to injuries. Opponents continue to pound the rock at Clark with great success. Seems like Keke made more plays in the 3 games Clark was on the milksop list this season than Clark made in all of last season. Mt Adams made more plays against the Buc-fuck-neers than Clark did.

[Fosco33]

You don’t need to overpay RBs - especially when you have depth, have a fair amount tied to the QB and lots of roles to play of need.

I like Jones - but he’ll hit the wall like many others. Good player, seems like a good personality.

But Williams/Dillon is fine by me

[Tony Oday]

For $12 million that is a no.

[RashanGary]

You don’t need to overpay RBs - especially when you have depth, have a fair amount tied to the QB and lots of roles to play of need.

I like Jones - but he’ll hit the wall like many others. Good player, seems like a good personality.

But Williams/Dillon is fine by me

It’s a tiny sample but Dillon might be the the better player. Rodgers is the third highest cap hit in 2021. 37M cap hit. I’m very curious to see Jenkins at LT. If he were serviceable we might be able to keep a bunch of solid players in the 6-10M range.

[RashanGary]

In a perfect world, Dillon is a star and either we win the lottery with UDFA Yosh Nijman or the draft lottery and somehow a solid LT falls to the end of the draft.

Hate to see the end of Rodgers career with a bad LT.

It’s going to take some serious luck at LT for us to be a great offense going forward.

[Joemailman]

Jones is a very good back but not a natural fit for this offense. MLF had Derrick Henry his only year as OC at Tennessee and I have to believe that's how they see Dillon.

[Guiness]

where did a price of 12M come from?

[RashanGary]

where did a price of 12M come from?

He says he’s as good as cook and Kamara

[Joemailman]

where did a price of 12M come from?

Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon have all signed contract extensions this year that call for an average salary of about 12M. https://overthecap.com/position/running-back/

[George Cumby]

The primary objective of every offense is to score touchdowns.


This is the type of jaw-droppingingly insightful, paradigm-shifting football knowledge that makes you such a great poster.

[Guiness]

He says he’s as good as cook and Kamara


Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon have all signed contract extensions this year that call for an average salary of about 12M. https://overthecap.com/position/running-back/

So not so much that he's said that's what he wants for it, but that that's the market for a top shelf RB. Fair enough, he'll probably be looking for a contract in that neighborhood and it's hard to fault him.

[call_me_ishmael]

In a perfect world, Dillon is a star and either we win the lottery with UDFA Yosh Nijman or the draft lottery and somehow a solid LT falls to the end of the draft.

Hate to see the end of Rodgers career with a bad LT.

It’s going to take some serious luck at LT for us to be a great offense going forward.

That luck is called perennial all-pro that they landed in the 4th round named David Bakhtiari. You are poco loco if you think he's walking, and he is poco loco if he thinks he's getting 22M per year when the cap is dropping 60-80M next year (probably spread out over 5 years realistically so let's assume it really is a 100M drop over 5 years, or 20M total next year). There absolutely, positively 100% will be contraction in players deals. If not at the high end, certainly at the mid-range.

[Guiness]

This is the type of jaw-droppingingly insightful, paradigm-shifting football knowledge that makes you such a great poster.

You can observe a lot by just watching.

[texaspackerbacker]

Obviously, just the existence and title of this thread pisses me off.

Hell yeah, Aaron Jones is every bit as good as any of those three RBs or anybody else currently running in the NFL. If that's the market price, and if the cap stays at last year's level as I think it will or goes higher, and even if we can't get Jones to take a bit of a discounted amount to stay with the Packers, then we should go ahead and pay him. It certainly can be done.

Like basically everybody on the Packers, he had a shitty game Sunday. And yeah, he ain't Barry Sanders - who hopped and juked and sometimes took losses, but made something out of nothing with a bad O Line pretty much his whole career. He also ain't Jim Brown or O.J., but he is the best RB we've had since Ahman Green, and he the unique kind of breakaway threat we need.

[Joemailman]

That luck is called perennial all-pro that they landed in the 4th round named David Bakhtiari. You are poco loco if you think he's walking, and he is poco loco if he thinks he's getting 22M per year when the cap is dropping 60-80M next year (probably spread out over 5 years realistically so let's assume it really is a 100M drop over 5 years, or 20M total next year). There absolutely, positively 100% will be contraction in players deals. If not at the high end, certainly at the mid-range.

Owners and NFLPA agreed to spread drop over 3 years. Salary cap this year is 198 million. They've agreed cap will not be lower than 175M next year. Could be a bit higher depending on revenues. Realistically, we're probably looking at cap being about 20M lower in 2021 than this year.

[texaspackerbacker]

A question for ya'all cap experts: what happens if a team exceeds the cap? I know the NBA has their "luxury tax", but I've never heard of that sort of thing in the NFL.

[call_me_ishmael]

You cannot exceed the salary cap, that's why you've never heard of it. It's a hard cap. NBA is a soft cap.

[GB-Brandon]

Aaron Jones was never getting resigned.

[run pMc]

Aaron Jones was never getting resigned.

I would tend to agree with this. Stories of how there have been talks with his agent are likely to keep him happy with the team.
He's a good player and he has a nose for the end zone. He's one of the few dynamic players an opposing defense has to account for, something not said of many GB skill position players beside Adams. Would I like to keep him? Sure, but I wouldn't want to pay him Kamara money. I think it's a position they should constantly be trying to replace via draft, etc. Look around the league and how fast guys like Bell, Fournette, Gurley wash out and get replaced by newer younger RBs.

While the cap can be cooked, there are limits... sure you could cook and stretch it only to find when 2028 hits you have no cap space. I think of cap cooking in the Covid era as like trying to continuously borrow against a frozen credit limit.

[gbgary]

terrific player but they can't afford him. most of those guys in their final contract won't be resigned. the Packers are in the bottom third of the league in cap space next season and only have 36 guys under contract for 2021. on top of that the cap next year will be $175m or slightly above. and to make matters even worse rodgers' hit is a ridiculous 36.3m of that 175ish cap for 2021.

[GB-Brandon]

I would tend to agree with this. Stories of how there have been talks with his agent are likely to keep him happy with the team.
He's a good player and he has a nose for the end zone. He's one of the few dynamic players an opposing defense has to account for, something not said of many GB skill position players beside Adams. Would I like to keep him? Sure, but I wouldn't want to pay him Kamara money. I think it's a position they should constantly be trying to replace via draft, etc. Look around the league and how fast guys like Bell, Fournette, Gurley wash out and get replaced by newer younger RBs.

While the cap can be cooked, there are limits... sure you could cook and stretch it only to find when 2028 hits you have no cap space. I think of cap cooking in the Covid era as like trying to continuously borrow against a frozen credit limit.

They drafted Dillon in 2nd round. End of story!!

Not re-singing Jones is one of the few things I agree with Gute on.

[texaspackerbacker]

You cannot exceed the salary cap, that's why you've never heard of it. It's a hard cap. NBA is a soft cap.

If that's the case, how do they enforce it? Never mind new contracts; If the panic mongers are correct, a lot of teams' existing contracts will exceed the cap. You can't just make a rule that supersedes written contracts.

I read that Joe or somebody posted that the players association actually agreed to a $20 million or so cut in the cap. Maybe, although I haven't read that anywhere else. Regardless, the cap can always be cooked, and I'm not so sure it can't just be broken without sanctions.

[texaspackerbacker]

terrific player but they can't afford him. most of those guys in their final contract won't be resigned. the Packers are in the bottom third of the league in cap space next season and only have 36 guys under contract for 2021. on top of that the cap next year will be $175m or slightly above. and to make matters even worse rodgers' hit is a ridiculous 36.3m of that 175ish cap for 2021.

So what the fuck is gonna happen? Those guys with expiring contracts are just gonna be out on the street? Or signing for a million or so a season? Come on. We all know that isn't gonna happen. Somebody will sign them - maybe for slightly less than what is now thought to be the market price, so why not the Packers? Everybody is basically in the same boat.

Restructure Rodgers to a million or so with the understanding that when he's finally done, we keep him on for one more overpaid year. Use the $35 million or so saved to retain Aaron Jones, Linsley, and that sacred cow, Bakhtiari. I think Rodgers would go for that - heaven knows he's already rich enough.

[RashanGary]

The Saints might be the youngest team in the league next year. They’re gonna have to cut everyone they can.

[RashanGary]

Patriots one of the few good teams with a lot of cap space. They’re the front runner to exploit this situation and win a SB without Brady next year.

[Bretsky]

I agree that Jones is gone; that make the Dillon pick make sense. Him excelling so well makes it hard. But odds are it will still happen

[call_me_ishmael]

Let him walk, get a 3rd, draft a scat back, rinse repeat. He is a very good player and I will miss him but I view paying any RB that isn't Adrian Peterson-esque a second contract being a bad choice.

[GB-Brandon]

It rarely works out paying RB’s big $. The jets just released Bell. It sucks but they are mostly 3-4 year players. Just the nature of the beast. Occasionally a special one will come along but not the best practice to play that game and as good as Jones is I don’t see him as one of those.

[run pMc]

Let him walk, get a 3rd, draft a scat back, rinse repeat. He is a very good player and I will miss him but I view paying any RB that isn't Adrian Peterson-esque a second contract being a bad choice.


It rarely works out paying RB’s big $. The jets just released Bell. It sucks but they are mostly 3-4 year players. Just the nature of the beast. Occasionally a special one will come along but not the best practice to play that game and as good as Jones is I don’t see him as one of those.

Agree. They drafted Dillon and Dexter to replace these guys; I think Dillon will pan out. It's been proven you can find and replace RBs. They'd need one who can function in the passing game. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/scrimmage.htm#

They need players on offense who will win their matchups most of the time and provide some playmaking, whether it's RB, WR or TE. I'm less convinced they have the cap room to pay for it in the form of a 2nd contract on a non-bellcow RB.

[texaspackerbacker]

Dillon is impressive as the kind of runner he is, but if all you have is somebody like him or J. Williams, the team is a lot worse off. We NEED that breakaway threat as a change of pace to the passing game. Otherwise, teams will not honor the run, just play pass and sit back and give us 4 or 5 or 6 yards now and then on a run.

[Patler]

I think it is beneficial to have the breakaway threat, but not essential. Dillon has already shown he is capable of the 10-20 yard runs. That's enough.

Has anyone else gotten the same impression that I have, that Dillon looks a little lost when he breaks into the open? "What do I do now, with no one to try to run over?"

[Joemailman]

I think it is beneficial to have the breakaway threat, but not essential. Dillon has already shown he is capable of the 10-20 yard runs. That's enough.

Has anyone else gotten the same impression that I have, that Dillon looks a little lost when he breaks into the open? "What do I do now, with no one to try to run over?"

At BC he faced 9 man lines, so he's probably not used to a lot of space. He should probably watch some film of Derrick Henry.

[Upnorth]

, paying Jones 12 mil a year for 16 TDs ain’t too bad a value

Cap hell? What the fuck is that? All teams will eventually be bailed out by the Networks. New Deals are imminent and inevitable.

1) it is a bad value when you can expect 8 - 12 tds for about 11mil less plus get back a 3rd.
2) I think the NFL will be lucky to get one more large increase in tv dollars. Streaming has started to change everything for network profits. The golden era of nfl tv money is taking a final lap. I think...

Running backs are important but the oline is more important.and the system is even more important yet. I would argue that started in the early 90's and has been accelerating.

[RashanGary]

You know what’s exciting.... all of the people who have said the cap doesn’t exist get to see what happens to Philly, New Orleans and KC when you’re up against the cap. If the cap doesn’t exist, those three teams should be just fine next year.


But since the cap does exist, the Patriots and Giants look poised to take advantage of the up coming situation.

[RashanGary]

The Packers are still ok.... for a couple years while Covid affects the cap, they’ll be up against it the way NO and Philly usually operate. There are ways to keep guys you really want to keep. Just push it ahead until the cap straightens out

But NO and Philly.... there is no cooking or pushing or playing at this point. Only cutting

[run pMc]

Dillon is impressive as the kind of runner he is, but if all you have is somebody like him or J. Williams, the team is a lot worse off. We NEED that breakaway threat as a change of pace to the passing game. Otherwise, teams will not honor the run, just play pass and sit back and give us 4 or 5 or 6 yards now and then on a run.

They need it if they don't have other playmakers. Remember, this team won a SB with Brandon Jackson and James Starks. Didn't scare defenses but kept them honest so Rodgers could go to work. Jackson got overpaid by Cleveland and GB didn't miss a beat.

I realize the MLF offense emphasizes runs more than M3, but K.Shanahan has done pretty well with scrapheap finds like Brieda, Mostert, etc.

[Joemailman]

Packers will have some extra draft picks in 2021. I certainly could see them using a middle round pick on a RB who is a better fit in outside zone than Jones. Not paying Jones, and releasing Turner could free up enough money to keep both Linsley and Bakhtiari.

[smuggler]

You can't sign anyone while you're over the cap. No FA of any kind. No rookies of any kind. If you don't get under the salary cap, the league usually fines you a draft pick. But this will be a special circumstance. Who knows?

[Joemailman]

You can't sign anyone while you're over the cap. No FA of any kind. No rookies of any kind. If you don't get under the salary cap, the league usually fines you a draft pick. But this will be a special circumstance. Who knows?

That won't change. That's why the owners and NFLPA agreed to spread the loss of revenues over 3 years. Otherwise you could have had the salary cap go down about 60 million. That would have been chaotic.

I have no idea what the Saints ae going to do. They currently have 12 players who will have a cap hit over 10 million next year. Brees and Taysom Hill will have a combined cap hit of 52 million.

[run pMc]

Packers will have some extra draft picks in 2021. I certainly could see them using a middle round pick on a RB who is a better fit in outside zone than Jones. Not paying Jones, and releasing Turner could free up enough money to keep both Linsley and Bakhtiari.

I don't like it, but I think releasing Preston Smith would be an option as well. I think they like Turner at RT. Go figure.

[run pMc]

That won't change. That's why the owners and NFLPA agreed to spread the loss of revenues over 3 years. Otherwise you could have had the salary cap go down about 60 million. That would have been chaotic.

I have no idea what the Saints ae going to do. They currently have 12 players who will have a cap hit over 10 million next year. Brees and Taysom Hill will have a combined cap hit of 52 million.

Maybe they can dump Brees and Hill and trade for Love. Then when he plays light out we can lament how dumb Gute was for letting him go. ;)
Seriously, that's a lot of money -- they are going to have some crazy decisions to make. I imagine they will renogiate anything they can, but they're going to have to play a lot of rookies and cheap vets. Maybe they figure after a year or two of that they will be drafting early enough to snag their next QB.

[gbgary]

So what the fuck is gonna happen? Those guys with expiring contracts are just gonna be out on the street? Or signing for a million or so a season? Come on. We all know that isn't gonna happen. Somebody will sign them - maybe for slightly less than what is now thought to be the market price, so why not the Packers? Everybody is basically in the same boat.

Restructure Rodgers to a million or so with the understanding that when he's finally done, we keep him on for one more overpaid year. Use the $35 million or so saved to retain Aaron Jones, Linsley, and that sacred cow, Bakhtiari. I think Rodgers would go for that - heaven knows he's already rich enough.

everyone is not in the same boat as the Packers. 10 or so teams are worse. 20 or so better off. some slightly, some very much so. i wouldn't push anymore of rodgers money back. doing so would kill the cap savings they'd get by letting him go, if not after this season, at the end of 2021. they need those savings for anyone they really want to keep by structuring their deals like clarks (where the large cap bites start in 2022). love will be cheap for 5 years. they need that relief. their plan on who to keep falls on their plan with rodgers going forward. it's one or the other.

[texaspackerbacker]

Exactly, doing so would "kill the cap savings by letting him go" - the best reason of all to do that. We're in the shitter when he is gone, so they damn well better make that happpen later rather than sooner.