Packers to be sellers, not buyers at trade deadline?

[Patler]

Some interesting thoughts from Silverstein:

https://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2020/10/28/green-bay-packers-could-make-sense-sellers-before-deadline/3752224001/?for-guid=fa10342e-836f-4505-9214-29be4d39951e&itm_source=jsonline-Packers%20Update&itm_medium=email&itm_campaign=narrative&itm_term=article_body

Trade away now players he doesn't plan to resign in the offseason anyway. Trading Bahktiari or Linsley would save significant cap space this year, which could be applied to resigning the other, Jones or Williams.

Trade players not living up to their contracts, but who would still have value to other contenders, for example: Amos, Lowery, Turner. Again, gaining cap space for next offseason resignings. Each can be replaced in the Packer's lineup, but would have value to others, and would contribute significant cap savings.

Williams, King, etc. wouldn't add much cap savings but could be traded for immediate draft picks, possibly higher than the Packers would receive in compensatory picks from losing them in free agency. Useful for overall roster building. Or, trade for a receiver now.

Interesting piece.

[RashanGary]

I don’t think they’ll go this way. They still have the flexibility to make some adjustments and keep the guys they want even with the projected Covid affect being split over the next few years and the cap having to be played with a bit.

I don’t think the Packers are in the group of sellers because they’re so close to being a contender or champion this year.

[RashanGary]

If the season had unfolded differently, I would say we would sell.


But we got best case from a bunch of important players at positions of question.

Gary
Lazard
Barnes
Greene
Sullivan
Tonyan
Jamal Williams



Although we have a few short term injuries, we’re poised to get healthy and be in position to make a run. We get a mini bye after week 8 and can really start peaking down the last half of the season.


It’s been ideal this year for the Packers with short term injuries and lucky development at so many spots. I don’t see us selling right now. I see a possible championship and a decent enough cap situation going forward to keep it going.

[texaspackerbacker]

I really doubt it either happens. Am I just misremembering, or is this the first year this "buying" and "selling" has been a thing in the NFL? Baseball, yeah, it's that way every year, but I never heard it before regarding football, and I seriously doubt the Packers make any significant moves.

[RashanGary]

I really doubt it either happens. Am I just misremembering, or is this the first year this "buying" and "selling" has been a thing in the NFL? Baseball, yeah, it's that way every year, but I never heard it before regarding football, and I seriously doubt the Packers make any significant moves.

The Covid cap situation is being split up over 3 years. Teams who have already been playing with the cap have no more room to play. If they’re not in it, they have to sell or suffer. The Packers aren’t in that group. I wouldn’t say they’re cap situation is good. They’re gonna have to stretch it with any contracts they make, but they have room to do it.

[texaspackerbacker]

And that's another thing. I grudgingly accept that it is going down $20 million or so this year, but why in the hell would it go down for 3 years when almost certainly things are gonna be back to normal - and normal revenue - by next season? I suspected that maybe this buyer/seller speculation had to do with the corona crap. However, I also suspect that it is overrated and not likely to happen in any significant way for the Packers or any other team.

[Joemailman]

Hope Brandon doesn't see this thread. :shock:

[Joemailman]

And that's another thing. I grudgingly accept that it is going down $20 million or so this year, but why in the hell would it go down for 3 years when almost certainly things are gonna be back to normal - and normal revenue - by next season? I suspected that maybe this buyer/seller speculation had to do with the corona crap. However, I also suspect that it is overrated and not likely to happen in any significant way for the Packers or any other team.

The reason is the loss of revenue this year is going to be far greater than 20 million. So rather than have the salary cap go down 60-70 million in one year, they're spreading the lost revenue over 3 years.

[RashanGary]

The reason is the loss of revenue this year is going to be far greater than 20 million. So rather than have the salary cap go down 60-70 million in one year, they're spreading the lost revenue over 3 years.

Yep. NFL (Players and league) decided to split it over the course of 3 or 4 years so the league could adjust a little and not completely flip. It’s about 20 for a bunch of years by most guesses right now.

But, the Packers know the length of the changes. Everyone has less money so contract numbers will be down. They have flexibility with Alexander for sure to make his hit harder later and really just about any contract they sign. So the Packers are poised to be ok. Probably, almost definitely, they’re gonna conduct business differently and do some of the things NO, philly and KC have done to keep talent. And in the long run, the cap will come back up so they won’t be selling the future while doing it either.

[RashanGary]

Thanks to their long term approach, they are one of the really good teams in decent shape. There are some others in better shape. Miami, New England, New York Giants (who have some really easy 2021 cuts and endless space after 2022)

So there will be a power flip next year with. NO, Philly and maybe KC the hardest hit and then the above teams I think the biggest advances. I’d throw Jacksonville into the teams with a huge opportunity too.

[GB-Brandon]

I’m totally down for trading away some of the fat for some more weapons for Rodgers !!! As long as the “The Vision is Clear” then fine. I’d imagine a team like the Seahawk would covet Preston Smith but then of course your helping a rival which could come back to bite ya!

I’m still not sure what Gute’s long term goal is. One year he spends over a 100 million in free agency. Next year he goes the other direction and drafts a QB in first round and doesn’t really draft for immediate need all the way down. Then Rodgers and the LaFluer offense has exceeded expectations with mostly Thompson’s players. I’m sure Rodgers play far exceeding Gute’s expectations!!!

Now we’re here at the Trade Deadline and I’m still trying to figure out what the fuck Gute’s plan really is here. The obvious move right now is your the no.1 seed “right now” and your one piece away on offense from being truly elite. You go “Get That Piece” and you patch the defense together and go make a run for a Lombardi then let this cap shit and who your gonna keep work out “After Your World Champs”!!!!!!

[GB-Brandon]

At some point Gute is going to have to win without Thompson’s players. I’m not sure he can. Would like to get a World Championship before he tries because it’s gonna be a bumpy ride!!

[RashanGary]

New England is trying to trade Gilmore. They're loading up to exploit all of the quality and well priced players that are going to be available this offseason.

[GB-Brandon]

New England is trying to trade Gilmore. They're loading up to exploit all of the quality and well priced players that are going to be available this offseason.

Yeah, Belichick is doing a flip. We can do the same thing after we win the Super Bowl this year. I’ll take a mediocre season to flip for a World Championship. My concern is I don’t know if Gute is capable of performing the flip!!

[GB-Brandon]

All it looks like Gute is capable of is calling up teams and making low ball trade offers that he knows will never go through to give the appearance that he was in on the action.

[RashanGary]

The Packers aren't in a great spot for doing that type of thing. They have a QB playing at the highest level, a defense getting better and an overall team near the top of the list of contenders. New England is starting over at QB. They're good, but they have a butt ton of cap space and can clear out even more if they move Gilmore. All contracts are going to come at a 10% off bargain next year or maybe a little better than that because so few team's were in good position for this. So many team's have what are now considered bad contracts and can't move out of them. And so many good players will be on the market from the cap unhealthy teams.

New England lucked into the perfect post brady situation. They can load up on quality players and fit more talent under the cap than everyone else because they'll be signing discounted contracts where everyone else is locked into bad contracts.

New England isn't the only team set up for success going forward, but the best team.


Our situation is completely different. A bunch of longer term deals at the projected cap number before covid. New England doing it doesn't mean I think we should. It means they should, for their situation.

We should try to win the SB this year. We're in it. And we don't have the ability to be in that sweepstakes the way they do.

[texaspackerbacker]

The reason is the loss of revenue this year is going to be far greater than 20 million. So rather than have the salary cap go down 60-70 million in one year, they're spreading the lost revenue over 3 years.

I know that's the excuse, but I can't see it happening anyway. Those rich bastards that own the teams (other than the Packers) can certainly afford it. And the Packers, I'm sure, won't be hurting either. I wouldn't even rule out the government throwing in a chunk of money to keep the cap up.

They aren't gonna let this stupid corona crap upset the competitive balance or the entertainment value.

[GB-Brandon]

The Packers aren't in a great spot for doing that type of thing. They have a QB playing at the highest level, a defense getting better and an overall team near the top of the list of contenders. New England is starting over at QB. They're good, but they have a butt ton of cap space and can clear out even more if they move Gilmore. All contracts are going to come at a 10% off bargain next year or maybe a little better than that because so few team's were in good position for this. So many team's have what are now considered bad contracts and can't move out of them. And so many good players will be on the market from the cap unhealthy teams.

New England lucked into the perfect post brady situation. They can load up on quality players and fit more talent under the cap than everyone else because they'll be signing discounted contracts where everyone else is locked into bad contracts.

New England isn't the only team set up for success going forward, but the best team.


Our situation is completely different. A bunch of longer term deals at the projected cap number before covid. New England doing it doesn't mean I think we should. It means they should, for their situation.

We should try to win the SB this year. We're in it. And we don't have the ability to be in that sweepstakes the way they do.

You can always dump contracts and eat some dead $ creating cap space and choose not to re-sign players you deem not worth market value and in be in play for others. Not saying Packers can be big spenders but they have some movement if they want too.

[GB-Brandon]

They could probably trade P.Smith and Amos and and get a draft pick and not even have to eat any dead $ getting the contract off the books.

[GB-Brandon]

Belichick WOULD LOVE to be in the Packers situation where the QB situation is handled and all he had to do was shuffle the rest of the roster accordingly!!!

[RashanGary]

They could probably trade P.Smith and Amos and and get a draft pick and not even have to eat any dead $ getting the contract off the books.

You do eat dead money on a trade. Ideally, Turner, Amos and P are guys you'd rather keep for one more because the dead money is really high this year upon trade, high enough to make it tough next year and then very doable the year after. Just not ideal for the up coming frenzy. Plus, we get worst losing any of them right now in what looks like a SB potential year.

[RashanGary]

The 4th year of all of their deals looks doubtful in the corona affected cap years. The third year looks less likely than before but not ideal cut time.

I expect the Packers to make few cuts next year
I expect them to sign any of the guys they feel like keeping with some cap creativity
I expect Amos and Preston to be cut after 2021
I expect Adams and Jaire to be the big contract replacements with a potential free agent or even a new deal for Amos under the current cap.

[GB-Brandon]

You do eat dead money on a trade. Ideally, Turner, Amos and P are guys you'd rather keep for one more because the dead money is really high this year upon trade, high enough to make it tough next year and then very doable the year after. Just not ideal for the up coming frenzy. Plus, we get worst losing any of them right now in what looks like a SB potential year.

Well you would at least get some value back with a pick and some cap relief. You would basically be buying a draft pick.

[GB-Brandon]

I am not suggesting to blow the whole thing up. What I’m saying is add “The Most Necessary Piece Now” and go win the damn thing. Go into attack mode instead of “Let’s see if we can get Lucky.” I like our chances using “Attack Mode” with the current landscape of things league wide. Win the damn thing and then make the moves you need to make. If we lose Kevin King and Aaron Jones and have to make a cut or two but have a World Championship then Oh Well!!!!!!

We have AR12 and a bunch of young players and the draft to reload. Keep Adams and Bak and Jaire. Pretty much everything else is replaceable based on what we have. Gute needs to start earning his $ and drafting better! That’s the bottom line!!

[RashanGary]

Well you would at least get some value back with a pick and some cap relief. You would basically be buying a draft pick.

Selling defense for a WR.... If you’re talking about a vision of winning a title, better make sure that vision is complete.

[RashanGary]

And taking huge dead money hits doesn’t open up cap space. It depletes it of both money and talent. Better make sure you think your vision all the way through or it just turns into a big failure that sounded good in your head.

[GB-Brandon]

And taking huge dead money hits doesn’t open up cap space. It depletes it of both money and talent. Better make sure you think your vision all the way through or it just turns into a big failure that sounded good in your head.

Right now I’m not selling anything unless it presented me an option to get an ULTIMATE GAME CHANGER on offense like Julio Jones etc etc. I’m not particularly happy overall with P. Smith or Amos right now. They both played better against Houston and we need to see how they finish out the season. If Preston Smith continues to play at his “54.7” grade which matches his tape overall you have to consider options and count your losses is what I’m saying. Hanging onto players for previous years past production can lead to a road to hell.

[RashanGary]

Preston had his best game against Houston. I thought Keke, Adams and Lowry all had their best games too. Maybe that’s Clark being back and in form. The defense looks to be taking off.

[GB-Brandon]

Preston had his best game against Houston. I thought Keke, Adams and Lowry all had their best games too. Maybe that’s Clark being back and in form. The defense looks to be taking off.

As I posted before the game “Houston historically has bad O-Line play and could be a boost for Packers pass rush.” So while it was good to see I’m not sold yet. It was good to see them take care of business though and get some good depth play. If they can build on this and get better that would be great!

Consistency is the Key!!

[RashanGary]

Clark, Keke and Adams all had run defense grades over 75. Lowry over 70.

All except Adams had overall grades above 70.


So the impression matches up with Pff. They had a huge day on the DL. And so far this year, Lancaster is our top rated lineman. So those 5 guys are coming on. That might be opening up Preston now to see better opportunities.

[RashanGary]

When you have 5 DL all playing pretty well and then Z, P and Gary as well... that’s a decent front 4 or front 5 depending on the alignment.

[call_me_ishmael]

I would personally be surprised if they’re sellers at 5-1. How PO’d would Aaron be lol.

[texaspackerbacker]

As I said, I absolutely do not expect the Packers to be sellers or buyers as the deadline nears. I really don't expect much of any significant panic selling or bargain buying from anybody, not before the deadline, and not even very much in the off season due to the cap and corona crap and whatever.

[run pMc]

Agree. Doubt they will be buyers or sellers.

[Sparkey]

I'd move Kirksey and Lowry, if possible. Every little bit of cap space helps.