2021 Cap Situation

[Sparkey]

The Packers’ top-five paid players in 2021 of Rodgers ($36.35 million), outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith ($20.75M), wide receiver Davante Adams ($16.6M), outside linebacker Preston Smith ($16.6M) and safety Adrian Amos ($10.05M) will account for a remarkable 54.8% of the salary cap. Green Bay’s 10 highest paid players next year — which includes offensive lineman Billy Turner ($8.05M), inside linebacker Christian Kirksey ($8.0M), nose tackle Kenny Clark ($7.1M), defensive end Dean Lowry ($6.3M) and right tackle Ricky Wagner ($6.0M) — gobble up 74.27% of the projected salary cap.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robreischel/2020/11/03/it-could-be-now-or-never-for-the-green-bay-packers/?sh=e3df8d41314a

10 Players taking up 74% of projected cap space. Only 36 players under contract in 2021 and only 4.1 million under the projected cap. The rest of the team will be UDFA and low round rookies to fit them under the cap.

Kirksey, Wagner, Lowry, Turner and Amos have to go. Maybe even Preston Smith in order to even field a reasonably good team.

[texaspackerbacker]

I agree with your conclusion, with the possible exception of Amos. I'd be more in favor of cutting P. Smith, and I'd even consider getting rid of Z. Smith if we could snag some better OLB than him. Z. has been nowhere near as good this year as last year IMO, and he doesn't play with enough discipline. I'm very surprised - pleasantly - that Kenny Clark isn't costing any more than he is.

[run pMc]

I think Z > P, and the lowered production (for Z) is a result of the ankle injury plus OL's knowing about him now. I really liked the Preston signing, I think he's a good player but he's been a mystery this year. Something is not right with him.
Lowry is gone, Kirksey too. Their DL is a mess and they can get by on the cheap with Martin/Barnes when (if) they play two actual ILBs. They can keep Summers I guess but he's bad in coverage.
Amos is probably worth keeping if they can tack on another year or two to clear space. Savage has to start showing something by end of year; he's undersized and misses too many tackles. If Savage is not the answer they have to find another solution at safety, and IDK they'd blow it up and start over. If he gets better/more consistent then maybe you can cut Amos and find a cheap vet to compete with the others.

I don't know that you can dump Turner/Wagner; they've been serviceable and if you lose Bahktiari you're sunk.
Speaking of, this all leads up to how they plan to sign Bahk and Jones. I think outside those two you don't have a must-sign.

Cap dropping should impact a lot of teams and I expect make the "middle class" NFL player very rare - at least for a year or two. A lot of high priced vets will get cut and resign one or possibly two year prove-it deals and wait to cash in as the cap goes back up.

[Patler]

The Smith, Smith, Turner and Amos free agency signings don't look so wise in Year 2. All were overpaid substantially, in my opinion. ZS is a clone of the young Clay Matthews, a streaky, but impactful pass rusher but too often a liability against running teams. PS has me befuddled this year. The others were just flat out overpaid. OK players, but overpaid for the impact they provide.

[Sparkey]

The Smith, Smith, Turner and Amos free agency signings don't look so wise in Year 2. All were overpaid substantially, in my opinion. ZS is a clone of the young Clay Matthews, a streaky, but impactful pass rusher but too often a liability against running teams. PS has me befuddled this year. The others were just flat out overpaid. OK players, but overpaid for the impact they provide.

In fairness to the Pack, they would be OK were if not for decrease in cap related to lost revenues. The whole paying more than you should is what happens when you draft crappy year after year.

[run pMc]

The Smith, Smith, Turner and Amos free agency signings don't look so wise in Year 2. All were overpaid substantially, in my opinion. ZS is a clone of the young Clay Matthews, a streaky, but impactful pass rusher but too often a liability against running teams. PS has me befuddled this year. The others were just flat out overpaid. OK players, but overpaid for the impact they provide.

Mostly agree.
"Overpay in FA" is what happens when you win 7 and then 6 games in back to back seasons.

[SudsMcBucky]

I was fully on board with prioritizing signing Bahk over Jones. I never really felt RB's were worth the coin, especially compared to left tackles. However, I'm coming around to the idea that Jones is much more important to this team than Bahk.

[Tony Oday]

Wait until we run into a DE that can rush AR.

[texaspackerbacker]

I was fully on board with prioritizing signing Bahk over Jones. I never really felt RB's were worth the coin, especially compared to left tackles. However, I'm coming around to the idea that Jones is much more important to this team than Bahk.

The O Line play hasn't been much good without Bakhtiari, However, I'd say two things: IMO, they aren't that much of a step down without Bakhtiari, and even if people worship the sacred cow, the success we have had even without Bakhtiari shows that the team can be damn good even with pretty bad O Line play - thanks to Aaron R and Aaron J.

As for waiting for a D that can rush Rodgers, I'd argue that he was rushed pretty hard last night and still did the job. You could say that if Bosa and Solomon Thomas and Dee Ford all there, our O Line wouldn't have been able to do the job, but even with Bakhtiari, they were pretty bad last year.

[run pMc]

Rodgers didn't have a lot of extended plays, meaning he was getting the ball out quick and on time/in rhythm. That makes life easy on your OL and can mask deficiencies in pass pro.
I agree SF would've given them fits if they had Bosa and Ford. They still had Kinlaw and Armstead, which is at least as much DL talent if not more than GB.

GB is lucky they have 3 OTs they can play with Bahk, Turner and Wagner...many teams can't say that. Look at SF with Justin Skule filling in for Trent Williams at LT, or the Bears playing Spriggs (who got Foles sacked 3 times) at RT.

[texaspackerbacker]

"Extended plays" - which IMO are a good thing, way better than the alternatives, sacks or putting it up for grabs or throwaways - are caused by one of two things: either good coverage or a quick mad rush from which Rodgers needs to escape. It is his ability to extend plays, not so much quick releases, that makes the need for good O Line play a lot less. Quick releases are a luxury you get when there is a receiver open quick and not a pass rusher right in his face. We don't see that scenario to enable the quick release very much most games.

I don't know how the "Cap Situation" thread got taken in this direction but it does mean a lot less need to throw a shit ton of money to keep Bakhtiari.

[bobblehead]

The Smith, Smith, Turner and Amos free agency signings don't look so wise in Year 2. All were overpaid substantially, in my opinion. ZS is a clone of the young Clay Matthews, a streaky, but impactful pass rusher but too often a liability against running teams. PS has me befuddled this year. The others were just flat out overpaid. OK players, but overpaid for the impact they provide.

Agree the spending everyone applauded appeals less as time goes on. Disagree that Z is a Clay clone. As a matter of fact I think they are polar opposites. Clay was an edge bender, Z is best inside. Clay had one move, Z has several. Clay played the run pretty well most of the time and could cover RB/TE, Z is shitty v. the run and never is asked to cover.

[bobblehead]

A lot of teams in cap hell next year. A smart GM that is bold would cut bait on multiple high priced guys and bargain build a really good roster.

[Sparkey]

My understanding of the 175 million cap is that it is the floor as agreed by the NFL & NFLPA. It may not be 175, but 175 is the lowest number for 2021.

[run pMc]

"Extended plays" - which IMO are a good thing, way better than the alternatives, sacks or putting it up for grabs or throwaways - are caused by one of two things: either good coverage or a quick mad rush from which Rodgers needs to escape. It is his ability to extend plays, not so much quick releases, that makes the need for good O Line play a lot less. Quick releases are a luxury you get when there is a receiver open quick and not a pass rusher right in his face. We don't see that scenario to enable the quick release very much most games.

I don't know how the "Cap Situation" thread got taken in this direction but it does mean a lot less need to throw a shit ton of money to keep Bakhtiari.

Tex, you and I see things completely different here, but I'm fine agreeing to disagree. I think Rodgers is at his best throwing on time, with occasional boots/rollouts but if he has to outrun Khalil Mack after he blasts past Turner, I'd bet on Mack catching the 36 year old, and him getting hit a lot is not my preference if the hope is he plays to his 40's. He freelanced and extended plays too often during the last years of M3 IMO and it didn't work. I do agree it's better than taking a sack or throwing a pick. If he's extending plays too often that tells me it's a schematic or execution issue, and that's a problem.

It's possible they see enough from the OL to let Bahk walk, but I'd be mildly surprised. Franchise LTs are harder to find and considered more valuable than RBs, but Jones is pretty valuable to this team. The contract negotiations and how they propose contract structuring must be pretty imaginative.

[run pMc]

A lot of teams in cap hell next year. A smart GM that is bold would cut bait on multiple high priced guys and bargain build a really good roster.

Agree. Dumping a lot of overpriced vets could provide a lot of cap space, if the cap hit from releasing them doesn't get you. I think there will be a large number of contract restructures or renegotiations (e.g., extensions with big bonuses if they are on the roster as of Mar 3, 2024, etc.)

At a minimum you could build some very good roster depth -- having a solid set of 2's when injuries hit could make a big difference. (Let's call it the Bashaud Breeland vs. Josh Jackson argument)

[texaspackerbacker]

Tex, you and I see things completely different here, but I'm fine agreeing to disagree. I think Rodgers is at his best throwing on time, with occasional boots/rollouts but if he has to outrun Khalil Mack after he blasts past Turner, I'd bet on Mack catching the 36 year old, and him getting hit a lot is not my preference if the hope is he plays to his 40's. He freelanced and extended plays too often during the last years of M3 IMO and it didn't work. I do agree it's better than taking a sack or throwing a pick. If he's extending plays too often that tells me it's a schematic or execution issue, and that's a problem.

It's possible they see enough from the OL to let Bahk walk, but I'd be mildly surprised. Franchise LTs are harder to find and considered more valuable than RBs, but Jones is pretty valuable to this team. The contract negotiations and how they propose contract structuring must be pretty imaginative.

I wouldn't argue with you about Rodgers being best when he can simply drop back, set up, and throw it in a timely way. I just haven't seen that happen very many times, though, over the years - and it ain't just Bakhtiari being gone. The other side of that coin, though, is that Rodgers is also better than pretty much anybody else at scrambling around as needed and throwing on the run.

True, I guess, "franchise left tackles" are pretty hard to find. My point, though, is a team (or at least a team with Aaron Rodgers at QB) can do just fine without a superstar at LT.

The last game I saw in person, Rodgers playing on one leg came back from I think it was a 24 point deficit in the second half against Mack & company.

I'm on record as saying, keep Aaron Jones as the TOP priority. I wouldn't mind keeping Bakhtiari too if they can manipulate the cap, but I don't want sacrifices to be made to keep him, especially not Jones.

[RashanGary]

Bakh is gonna be pricey. I could see him leaving and OT being our top priority next year.

Jones and king, I except both will be cheaper than we thought. There's a chance there.

Lindsey is a center and has reoccurring back issues that he plays through. Jenkins/Patrick/Runyan are fine in there.

Another year of Wagner is ok with me.

[RashanGary]

Without bakh, we're.... Less dynamic with the long developing stuff, but so good at the running and shorter stuff now... We can make do, I think.

[RashanGary]

The packers are in God awful shape to ”cut salary” considering the bad dead cap hits would offset any savings in the covid affected cap environment.

But Green Bay is in a sort of good position of their own. Due to responsible cap management, even a 15% cap cut doesn't kill them. One of the top teams in the league, Green Bay is in position to do some cap cooking and be one of the most cohesive team's in this mini era of complete roster shake ups.