Over the Cap

[Guiness]

The thread about Bakhtiari resigning got me looking at the cap situation for next year. Over the cap has a nice chart that gives an overview. It assumes a cap number of 176M

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

The Pack are projected to have 2M of space with what they already have committed. That would be with none of their own FAs resigned of course.
I think the 'effective cap space' column assumes the roster is filled out with minimum wage guys.

I don't pretend to understand what the hell is going on with the Eagles and Saints, who project to 64 and 94M over!

[Joemailman]

Cap savings by cutting various players:

Aaron Rodgers - 4.8M
Z. Smith - 10.75M
Davante Adams - 13M
Preston Smith - 8M
Adrian Amos - 4.3M
Billy Turner - 3.55M
Dean Lowry - 3.3M
Ricky Wagner - 4.25M
Christian Kirksey - 6M
Josh Jackson - 1.3M
Oren Burks - 945T

[HarveyWallbangers]

I think Lowry, Wagner, and Kirksey (although I don't hate him as much as others, more because they have some young guys that look intriguing) are as good as gone.

[Joemailman]

The thread about Bakhtiari resigning got me looking at the cap situation for next year. Over the cap has a nice chart that gives an overview. It assumes a cap number of 176M

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

The Pack are projected to have 2M of space with what they already have committed. That would be with none of their own FAs resigned of course.
I think the 'effective cap space' column assumes the roster is filled out with minimum wage guys.

I don't pretend to understand what the hell is going on with the Eagles and Saints, who project to 64 and 94M over!

Saints have 13 players who would have a cap hit of over 10M in 2021. Eagles have 12. The Packers, by comparison, have 5.

[RashanGary]

I think Lowry, Wagner, and Kirksey (although I don't hate him as much as others, more because they have some young guys that look intriguing) are as good as gone.

I think id cut Preston, Wagner and Kirksey. I'd look at a cheap resign of Fackrell, extending Montravious for cheap and Lowry is already cheap. Solid veteran big guys are a luxury in the NFL. Three for the price of Preston seems a no brainer

[RashanGary]

Runyan, Dillon, Barnes and Kamal Martin gonna go a long way to allowing us to save some big �� in 2021 and beyond. Rookies are rookies and they almost always suck, but these guys have a lot of 2nd year potential!

[HarveyWallbangers]

I think id cut Preston, Wagner and Kirksey. I'd look at a cheap resign of Fackrell, extending Montravious for cheap and Lowry is already cheap. Solid veteran big guys are a luxury in the NFL. Three for the price of Preston seems a no brainer

It all depends on how Preston plays. If he's solid down the stretch, it would be hard to give up an good all around OLB in this defense. Guys like Wagner, Lowry (I'm very down on him), and Kirksey (we have alternatives) are easier to find.

[Joemailman]

Yep. You want to keep both Smiths with Gary. Guys comparable to Wagner, Kirksey and Lowry are going to be available for fewer dollars in FA.

[run pMc]

Agree the draft picks have to pan out... especially in years 2 & 3.
I think Lowry and Kirksey are the most likely. Lowry is JAG and this offseason there were similar vet DL signing for a fraction of Lowry's contract -- I think it's fair to assume that will happen after COVID cuts.
Kirksey's 6M would be nice to shed for a good if oft-injured player. ILB depth is shaky; Barnes and Martin have injury histories too, so they need someone besides Summers. Burks they probably bring back to camp and try to trade or cut him. Pettine plays a lot of S at the ILB, so maybe it doesn't matter.

Wagner is iffy to me -- he's actually been serviceable at RT, and having him and Turner playing while Bahk was out (and Taylor on IR) didn't lead to much drop off. Losing a starting tackle can cause problems as Justin Skule and Jason Spriggs prove.

If you cut Preston, you better hope Garvin and Gary can hold down that spot and find a 4th OLB who can drop into coverage. I could see them doing this to free space for Aaron Jones.

[texaspackerbacker]

Preston Smith, Kirksey, Lowry, Wagner, Turner for sure. I'd even cut Zakarius if there was a better OLB available.

[RashanGary]

Preston is tough. It’s really nice to have three of them. I’m the only guy who likes Lowry on that small deal. I’ll take Lowry, Montravious and Fackrell (three young veteran serviceable guys who keep the front 4 fresh) over one Preston all day. I really don’t want to lose Montravious. He's become a servicable rotation guy like Lowry. I know we hate our DL around here, but it’s nice having a bunch of vets who can rotate in.

[Upnorth]

Would be ok without p Smith if Gary can step it up a bit.
We need to draft solid dt and ilb. After that saftey or wr. Just my opinion on priorities. All that assumes gary gets better of course.

[bobblehead]

Cap savings by cutting various players:

Aaron Rodgers - 4.8M
Z. Smith - 10.75M
Davante Adams - 13M
Preston Smith - 8M
Adrian Amos - 4.3M
Billy Turner - 3.55M
Dean Lowry - 3.3M
Ricky Wagner - 4.25M
Christian Kirksey - 6M
Josh Jackson - 1.3M
Oren Burks - 945T

I think you kirksey has 7 weeks to prove he doesn't need to go. You may argue to cut preston, especially given what is going to be available on the market. Amos imo, probably can be replaced for less. Lowrey and Wagner would go if I were GM, just because I think, again, bargain hunting this year will be key. If you approach it as an investment portfolio you would say, "yes, he is worth this price, but I don't have free cash and there are better allocations of capital so...bye so I can buy."

[Guiness]

Thanks for the list mailman. There are players in there that could easily be gone, 13M saved by cutting Lowry, Kirksey and Wagner but that still only gives them 7M in space for 2021when you look at the effective cap number. Still not a lot of breathing room to sign even some of their own FAs. I imagine there will be some cooking going on by the Pack and others. I am a little surprised there are only 13 teams currently over next year's number.

[Joemailman]

Thanks for the list mailman. There are players in there that could easily be gone, 13M saved by cutting Lowry, Kirksey and Wagner but that still only gives them 7M in space for 2021when you look at the effective cap number. Still not a lot of breathing room to sign even some of their own FAs. I imagine there will be some cooking going on by the Pack and others. I am a little surprised there are only 13 teams currently over next year's number.

A lot of teams made moves this offseason to get rid of salary for 2021. There are 13 teams with 20 milllon or more of dead money in 2020.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Would be ok without p Smith if Gary can step it up a bit.
We need to draft solid dt and ilb. After that saftey or wr. Just my opinion on priorities. All that assumes gary gets better of course.

I'm not worried about S or ILB. I'd say DT, CB, and OT.

[gbgary]

effective cap space is the key. they're over the cap $5+m with only 39 players under contract. lots of cuts and salary theatrics coming. the bottom line is they'll be a weaker team next season. the single biggest thing they can do to be able to put the best possible team around Love is to move on from Rodgers after this season. it's only 5ish million next but it's $40m-ish in 2022. they can keep several more players from todays team by doing so. it's not like they'll be pushing for a SB next season or anything. so why not?

[Upnorth]

I'm not worried about S or ILB. I'd say DT, CB, and OT.

Sullivan is solid. Jaire is on an all pro trajectory. CB isn't the issue.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Sullivan is solid. Jaire is on an all pro trajectory. CB isn't the issue.

You need more than two good CBs. King is too injury prone to resign.

[run pMc]

You need more than two good CBs. King is too injury prone to resign.

Agree. You need at least 3 - too much 11 personnel, plus injuries happen.
They will give Jackson, Hollman and even guys like Samuels every chance to prove they belong and replace King. If that happens, Gute picks another Day 3 CB and GB develops them. If not, maybe they go CB earlier or sign a low end starter who's been cut on the cheap.

If the money is right they might bring King back, but I suspect he signs a 1 year prove it deal elsewhere. There will be a lot of 1 year deals signed; as the cap pops back up those players will count on a bigger payday.

[run pMc]

I'm not worried about S or ILB. I'd say DT, CB, and OT.

I'll bang the table for a WR, but they do need DT and OT help and those guys go early. They have Clark and a mostly cast of JAGs at DL, and if they cut Wagner they have no OT depth unless you think Njiman will be a viable player after 2 years.

They aren't great at S, but can get by there.

ILB is likely not a priority. Even if they cut Kirksey, they have 2 guys with Barnes and Martin they can roll out there and will look for more UDFAs as they always do.

I could see CB and OLB, especially if they cut Preston loose. And then there's RB if Jones is gone....ugh...Sorry, I didn't mean to turn this into a "draft needs" post.

[RashanGary]

Almost gonna have to cut Preston, kirksey and Wagner so you can extend Davante. Jones is almost certainly gone. King as well. Keeping Williams should be cheap.

Rodgers is gonna be a happy camper if he ends up with 69 and 17 for the remainder of his Packer career.

[RashanGary]

I looked through at the nfl receiving leaders. They all had their last really good years between the ages of 32 and 35 (other than rice)

Let’s say Adams is in the middle somewhere, even 33, a somewhat safe age considering he isn’t on the level of Moss and Owens and Fitzgerald.

He turns 29 this year in December. He turns 30 next year, our last year with him under contract. You can’t extend him 4 years and expect that to work out. Paying a 34 year old receiver top dollar, who probably isn’t HOF level and has had injury concerns is a little sketchy.



Maybe you go into the up coming draft with WR at the very top of your list of needs.

[Joemailman]

Almost gonna have to cut Preston, kirksey and Wagner so you can extend Davante. Jones is almost certainly gone. King as well. Keeping Williams should be cheap.

Rodgers is gonna be a happy camper if he ends up with 69 and 17 for the remainder of his Packer career.

They'll extend Davante next year so his cap hit will be low in 2022 when Rodgers' cap hit will be it's highest. Then Davante's cap hit will go up in 2023 as Rodgers' cap hit goes down.

[Zool]

Cap savings by cutting various players:

Aaron Rodgers - 4.8M
Z. Smith - 10.75M
Davante Adams - 13M
Preston Smith - 8M
Adrian Amos - 4.3M
Billy Turner - 3.55M
Dean Lowry - 3.3M
Ricky Wagner - 4.25M
Christian Kirksey - 6M
Josh Jackson - 1.3M
Oren Burks - 945T

Can we get a collection going to pay for the loss of Burks? I’d definitely contribute.