The problem with the 2021 Packers offense

[RashanGary]

Elgton Jenkins is not David Bakhtiari at left tackle
Runyan is not Elgton Jenkins at LG
Rookie Meyers is not Corey Lindsley at center
Rookie Newman is not Turner at RG


Basically from LT all the way over to RG, we have position switches, rookies and unproven players across the board.

It gets a lot better when even Bakh at 70% allows Jenkins to replace a rookie at guard. We’re serviceable at the end but not much more than that.


Rodgers is breaking in a rookie OL class for Jordan Love. That’s what’s happening this year. And it will be felt. Bank on it.

[RashanGary]

Newman coming in and beating out Lucas Patrick is a huge long term success.
Runyan beating out Patrick AND looking so promising last year is a huge long term success.
Bakh getting his legs under him is a huge success for 2022.

2022 looks great. 2021 isn’t a disaster. It’s the next notch up from a disaster. Rodgers has zero chance of an MVP season.

[RashanGary]

What Rodgers and MLF have going for them is a strong cast of veteran skill players who have been in the offense for three years now. Jones, Adams, MVS, Lazard, Cobb (a vet who should pick it up quickly) should all make it possible to get the ball out quickly. And Rodgers at QB obviously makes it possible to clean up a little of the slack. We can win regular season games with this OL. Unless the season unfolds perfectly up front and Bakh makes it back close to 100, I don’t see a very good chance at beating the best in the playoffs.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

I ain’t paid any attention to the Yokozunas, but if the LG1 and the RG1 don’t reach Klemm and Whitticker’s level of monstrosity, the o-line should be a’rite.

Who was that incompetent GM that let Wahle and Rivera go?

[HarveyWallbangers]

Turner played RT last year. Patrick played RG, and he’ll probably start at LG this year. Once Bakh is back, the difference will be Myers at OC and Newman at RG—which might be an improvement. Or Patrick back at RG.

[RashanGary]

Turner played RT last year. Patrick played RG, and he’ll probably start at LG this year. Once Bakh is back, the difference will be Myers at OC and Newman at RG—which might be an improvement. Or Patrick back at RG.

I would bet anyone that there will be no improvement from last year.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I would bet anyone that there will be no improvement from last year.

The Packers had one of the best OLs during the regular season last year. I don’t expect them to be quite that good, but if they get good health, they should be better in the playoffs. I’ll take Bakh and Myers over Wagner and Linsley.

[RashanGary]

The Packers had one of the best OLs during the regular season last year. I don’t expect them to be quite that good, but if they get good health, they should be better in the playoffs. I’ll take Bakh and Myers over Wagner and Linsley.

Projection to start
Jenkins - slightly below average LT
Runyan - average LG
Meyers - slightly below average C
Newman - slightly below average RG
Turner - average RT

Projection to finish
Bakh - average LT
Jenkins - star LG
Meyers - slightly below average C
Runyan - average RG
Turner - average RT


They look to start the year slightly below average as a whole. With a lot of rookie growing pains. Going against a lot of bad DLs and with the qb and skill players experience, it’s enough to win reg season games.

They look to finish the year dead average (which is about what we had last year to finish and it’s not enough against top DL)

[RashanGary]

What I do like about the OL is that we don’t seem to have any dumpster fires. If either of the rookies was a dumpster fire, Patrick would be starting. Having 5 guys who are serviceable tends to work better than three great ones and two dumpster fires.

[RashanGary]

The 2022 OL looks great though. Jordan Love is looking like a lucky young QB with his situation.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Newman may not go to the bench when Bakh gets back. He was better than Runyan and Patrick this preseason. Myers has really impressed me. By playoff time, he might be better than average. That coming from a guy who didn’t like that pick. He looks like a potential stud.

[RashanGary]

Newman may not go to the bench when Bakh gets back. He was better than Runyan and Patrick this preseason. Myers has really impressed me. By playoff time, he might be better than average. That coming from a guy who didn’t like that pick. He looks like a potential stud.

I HIGHLY doubt either rookie will be average NFL players in their first year. Jenkins was an average player as a rookie. Alexander was an average player. But that is a rare level of play for a rookie. But I like both players. Slightly below average is a really good starting point for a rookie. It’s damn near best case. That means both players will eventually be studs if they’re almost average out of the gate.

[bobblehead]

Seinfelds nemisis (nemisi? nemisesis?) Newman seems to be another really nice find for Gutes. I'll have to watch him very closely in week 1 (or if I don't notice him even better).

JH, don't sweat it too much. I honestly think Jenkins will be really effing good at LT. And when Bak returns we have the dilemma of how to rearrange the deck. My favorite option is Jenkins to RT and Turner back to guard. But honestly, someone will likely get hurt in the first 6 weeks and solve the issue for us.

[smuggler]

I thought Jenkins was slightly better as a rookie than he was in 2020.

[texaspackerbacker]

I've got to disagree with a lot of what you said. First and foremost, I've been saying forever that Aaron Rodgers just doesn't need much help from the O Line. He literally could thrive with let's say, Marshall House X 5 out there. We've got an exceptional group of RBs, and they do need some O Line blocking, but arguably not all that much. Sorry to those who dissgree, I just don't see O Line quality as that big a deal.

Regarding the comparisons, I don't see Jenkins as less than Bakhtiari. I don't see Myers as clearly not gonna be as good as Linsley. Newman in the preseason has looked more than decent - better than Patrick or Runyan and better than Turner in his few reps at Guard. Newman switched yo RG supposedly because Patrick was better at LG. I think when Bakhtiari comes back, Jenkins of course goes to LG, and Newman stays at RG. I expect this O Line to be damn good this year. Next year? I suppose there will be growth, but Aaron Rodgers makes them good. If he is there, 2022 will be great, O Line and everywhere else. If Rodgers is gone, it's all in the toilet anyway, and more so with the O Line blocking for Love.

[RashanGary]

I've got to disagree with a lot of what you said. First and foremost, I've been saying forever that Aaron Rodgers just doesn't need much help from the O Line. He literally could thrive with let's say, Marshall House X 5 out there. We've got an exceptional group of RBs, and they do need some O Line blocking, but arguably not all that much. Sorry to those who dissgree, I just don't see O Line quality as that big a deal.

Regarding the comparisons, I don't see Jenkins as less than Bakhtiari. I don't see Myers as clearly not gonna be as good as Linsley. Newman in the preseason has looked more than decent - better than Patrick or Runyan and better than Turner in his few reps at Guard. Newman switched yo RG supposedly because Patrick was better at LG. I think when Bakhtiari comes back, Jenkins of course goes to LG, and Newman stays at RG. I expect this O Line to be damn good this year. Next year? I suppose there will be growth, but Aaron Rodgers makes them good. If he is there, 2022 will be great, O Line and everywhere else. If Rodgers is gone, it's all in the toilet anyway, and more so with the O Line blocking for Love.

Aaron Rodgers has his best years when the surrounding cast is best. He has his worst years when his surrounding cast is down. Rodgers isn’t getting a lot better and a lot worse from year to year, the team around him is changing.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I HIGHLY doubt either rookie will be average NFL players in their first year. Jenkins was an average player as a rookie. Alexander was an average player. But that is a rare level of play for a rookie. But I like both players. Slightly below average is a really good starting point for a rookie. It’s damn near best case. That means both players will eventually be studs if they’re almost average out of the gate.

It’s not that unusual for interior OL to be good right away—a lot like RBs. OT is a different story. Look at the starting IOL in the Pro Bowl last year. Almost all of them were good right away. Myers has that look. He looks more athletic than what I thought.

[Teamcheez1]

You lost me at Bakh - average LT. It calls into question the rest of your analysis.

[RashanGary]

You lost me at Bakh - average LT. You lost all credibility for the rest of your analysis.

He’s coming off of ACL surgery. He’s not going to be the same player. Next year he’ll be back to himself and probowl level again.

[Fritz]

It’s not that unusual for interior OL to be good right away—a lot like RBs. OT is a different story. Look at the starting IOL in the Pro Bowl last year. Almost all of them were good right away. Myers has that look. He looks more athletic than what I thought.

Think about how young the starting offensive line might be at the beginning of the season. It could shake out that you have a third-year player at LT (Jenkins), a second-year guy at LG (Runyan), a rookie at center, a rookie at RG (Newman), and an old hand at RT (Turner).

[bobblehead]

Aaron Rodgers has his best years when the surrounding cast is best. He has his worst years when his surrounding cast is down. Rodgers isn’t getting a lot better and a lot worse from year to year, the team around him is changing.

Stop with all your logic and common sense. Rodgers is GOD HIMSELF and Tex won't listen to heresy.

[call_me_ishmael]

Stop with all your logic and common sense. Rodgers is GOD HIMSELF and Tex won't listen to heresy.

I do think Aaron got _a lot_ better the last two years though. Injuries, maybe complacency, who knows. Just my opinion.

[texaspackerbacker]

Aaron Rodgers has his best years when the surrounding cast is best. He has his worst years when his surrounding cast is down. Rodgers isn’t getting a lot better and a lot worse from year to year, the team around him is changing.

Isn't that about what I wrote? The thing is, though, it's maximized with Rodgers - good years and bad years for the rest of the team. With Love, the peaks would be maybe a little above average, and the valleys would be in the toilet.

THAT is the logic and common sense, bobblehead.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I do think Aaron got _a lot_ better the last two years though. Injuries, maybe complacency, who knows. Just my opinion.

He wasn't that good two years ago. Probably in the 10-15 range for starting QBs in the NFL. Last year, he had one of the best seasons ever.

[scharpcheddar]

Is that they choke in the playoffs consistently

[bobblehead]

Isn't that about what I wrote? The thing is, though, it's maximized with Rodgers - good years and bad years for the rest of the team. With Love, the peaks would be maybe a little above average, and the valleys would be in the toilet.

THAT is the logic and common sense, bobblehead.

No, that is not even close to what you said. You literally said Rodgers could thrive with 5 Marshall Newhouse as his OLine. LITERALLY.

[Upnorth]

Isn't that about what I wrote? The thing is, though, it's maximized with Rodgers - good years and bad years for the rest of the team. With Love, the peaks would be maybe a little above average, and the valleys would be in the toilet.

THAT is the logic and common sense, bobblehead.

Logic and common sense would have you not assume love will suck based in 2 preseason games with backups everywhere around him.
Rodgers has improved in 2019 and 2020 thanks to a better game plan
Our oline had 2 all pros ladt year, and jenkins who is very solid. This year may give you some "its rodgers not the line" evidence as we just losst 2 all pros and our next best line man is playing out of his position. If rodgers is as good as last year that will tell you something, if not indicates the line may have more influence than you care to admit.

I for one hope to not see him scrambling for his life.

[HarveyWallbangers]

To be fair Rodgers didn’t improve in 2019. He had maybe his worst season. 62 completion % and 7.0 YPA are not good. Nor was his 52 QBR. His 95 passer rating was ordinary. Those were career lows or very close to it. Advanced metrics weren’t any kinder to him. He was a slightly above average starter—even with the low interception rate. His last really good season was 2016–before last year.

[RashanGary]

To be fair Rodgers didn’t improve in 2019. He had maybe his worst season. 62 completion % and 7.0 YPA are not good. Nor was his 52 QBR. His 95 passer rating was ordinary. Those were career lows or very close to it. Advanced metrics weren’t any kinder to him. He was a slightly above average starter—even with the low interception rate. His last really good season was 2016–before last year.

He had spotty OL play and lacked skill players in 2017 and 2018. 2019 was a new offense. I had the AR for MVP thread last year early when no one thought he’d be that good because I saw right away the team around him would give him a shot.

2021 will be down from 2020 because of the OL.

A QBs stats are more of a team stat than an individual in reality. I thought Rodgers was lights out in 2019 despite the stats.

[RashanGary]

QB production stats are offense stats not individual
Wins are team stats, not QB stats.

[texaspackerbacker]

You seriously think "2021 will be down from 2020"?

I'm thinking the O Line will be just about as good as last season, but whatever. O Line isn't that important anyway with Rodgers at QB. We will be better at the "skill positions" even than last year.

Honestly, all of that, even a Super Bowl win would be pretty much meaningless to me if Rodgers is gone by the next season and the team goes down the drain for the foreseeable future. Hopefully, that disaster won't happen.

[HarveyWallbangers]

2021 will be down from 2020 because of the OL.

His stats will be down--no matter the circumstances. He had one of the all-time great seasons. He actually has more weapons around him, and thunder and lightning in the backfield is ridiculous amount of talent. The schedule is tougher though, and those types of seasons are rarely repeated.

[RashanGary]

His stats will be down--no matter the circumstances. He had one of the all-time great seasons. He actually has more weapons around him, and thunder and lightning in the backfield is ridiculous amount of talent. The schedule is tougher though, and those types of seasons are rarely repeated.

The OL helped him last year. And similar skill players. Yeah, it was gonna be down regardless, but I expect it to be more than 4 touchdowns down. I would predict 38 and 6 with the OL drop off and just because last year was kind of lucky.

[texaspackerbacker]

Did I ever say I think Love will "suck"? Hell no. I said a lot of times, I think he will be an average, maybe at best a slightly above average NFL QB. That's just not what I want. I want the GOAT for as many more years as he can play at a high level - I'd say 3-4 minimum, and way more than the detractors want to consider hahahahaha on the high end. After that, I want somebody who probably is in elementary or junior high right now to come along and we get as lucky with that guy as we have with Favre and Rodgers.

RG, I thought you meant the team in general, not Rodgers to be "down in '21 from '20". Regardless, same response, with Rodgers, O Line is not near as big a factor as with just about anybody else - he makes them all pros (or seem like it), not the other way around. The line should be even better for run blocking this year, though, and it should mean more with the RBs we have. With that threat as well as improved WRs, Rodgers AND the team should be even better than last year.

[call_me_ishmael]

I guess, for me, the question is sort of silly right now since we have no idea.

But we do have a strong inkling Rodgers can keep it rolling for a few years at least. Does anyone think Rodgers will have more all-pro or top 5 QB seasons in the next 5 years than Love will have in 10? If the answer is yes, then I have serious doubts about moving on from him.

[texaspackerbacker]

I would say that is obvious - even if it was 1 to nothing. I would guess, 5 to nothing, though.