Mid-season Check In - Is Aaron Back Next Year?

[call_me_ishmael]

Is Aaron back next year w/ qualifiers, mid-season edition

Gah, sorry, I jacked this up. It was supposed to be a poll.

"Aaron is not back by his choice"

"Aaron is not back by the choice of the organization"

"Aaron is back with an extension"

[texaspackerbacker]

He damn well better be or the team is down the drain for the foreseeable future. I'm pretty sure, though, the answer is emphatically YES, he will be back in '22 and for a good many years after that.

[call_me_ishmael]

I guess at this point I believe that the Packers will give Aaron a 2 year extension fully guaranteed. So he'll be on the next year (2022-2023), the year after, and the year after(2024-2025).

I don't really see what else they can do. There is very little reason to believe that Jordan Love is special at this point. Maybe he will be a middle-of-the-road starter, but that isn't good enough to justify moving on from Aaron over.

Bigger pictures - the Packers will kick the salary cap can down the road another year. The cap is going to go up a lot next year I believe - because all of the good teams are in cap hell seemingly and the league isn't about to hurt their own product by blowing up the rosters of all of their good, popular teams.

[call_me_ishmael]

At this stage, I don't see how they can't bend over and accomodate him. He has played _very_ well the past few weeks. I understand the desire to move on to Love and cement your legacy if you're right, but given that in all likelyhood you're wrong, I certainly wouldn't take the risk.

Nobody would lose their job for making it work with Rodgers.

[Joemailman]

At this stage, I don't see how they can't bend over and accomodate him. He has played _very_ well the past few weeks. I understand the desire to move on to Love and cement your legacy if you're right, but given that in all likelyhood you're wrong, I certainly wouldn't take the risk.

Nobody would lose their job for making it work with Rodgers.

I would agree. That assumes Rodgers wants to be accommodated. The Denver situation could be interesting to him if he wants to leave. They are in the hunt for the playoffs with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Adding Rodgers would make them an immediate Superb Owl contender.

I think though that Rodgers may want to stay. Until the Packers drafted Love, he had talked about how special it would be to be able to spend his entire career with the Packers. After Love was drafted, he had to accept that probably wasn't going to happen. However, now with improved relations between him and Gute, he might be thinking it can happen again.

[texaspackerbacker]

Sheeeeesh. Aaron Rodgers would make literally anybody "an immediate Superb Owl contender" - Jacksonville, Houston, anybody, even the team he owns.

However, Aaron Rodgers ain't going anyplace ...... and if he did, the Packers go right to the bottom - worse than Jacksonville, Houston, etc. And if that happens, Gutekunst, no matter what the good moves he's made otherwise should be forcibly run out of town.

[George Cumby]

I think he stays. I don't see an obvious place for him to land that gives him a better chance to win.

Granted the sample size was very small, but Love's play didn't instill a lot of confidence.

It would be nice if he would agree to structure the deal so we can keep some other talent.

[call_me_ishmael]

What I would like to understand is if the team agrees to trade him (per the contract), what if the team being traded to doesn't offer a decent deal? Like... what if the Steelers or Broncos offer one R3 and the Packers say no?

[RashanGary]

I think Rodgers stays, but his contract is gonna kill us. Maybe Love will really show up in preseason and Rodgers injury games and then fetch a draft pick some day.

[Joemailman]

What I would like to understand is if the team agrees to trade him (per the contract), what if the team being traded to doesn't offer a decent deal? Like... what if the Steelers or Broncos offer one R3 and the Packers say no?

There would be several teams interested in Rodgers. They would be competing against each other. Someone would offer a good deal.

[smuggler]

I think Rodgers stays, but his contract is gonna kill us. Maybe Love will really show up in preseason and Rodgers injury games and then fetch a draft pick some day.

The contract is designed to force the issue. We either trade him or lock him in for 3+ seasons. If it's the former, I agree with Joe. There will be a buyer.

I also think it makes the most sense for both sides to keep the marriage going.

[call_me_ishmael]

There would be several teams interested in Rodgers. They would be competing against each other. Someone would offer a good deal.

You'd think but what if he pulls a Favre and said he'll only sign with one team or what have you? Recall Favre was younger (I think) and only got two condition R3s.

[MadScientist]

You'd think but what if he pulls a Favre and said he'll only sign with one team or what have you? Recall Favre was younger (I think) and only got two condition R3s.

Favre had retired then unretired to try to force the issue, lowering his trade value. Still, I think the Packers will try to what it takes to keep Rodgers. Love just doesn't look like he has the arm strength on the deep balls and the accuracy on the short ones to do the job right.

[Bretsky]

Look at the team with pretty good surrounding talent and in dire need of a competent QB. I come up with two captain obvious teams.

DENVER
PITTSBURG

Both are giving up over two 1st rounders plus for Rodgers.


With that being said, if Gutebag does his job AROD will stay and retire as a Packer. He's drafted and used FA well enough to give the Love Machine away for a Quarter Pounder with Cheese, a 5th rounder, or whatever the heck you can get for him if he wants.

[Tony Oday]

8 year deal.

[Fritz]

Sounds like Rodgers demands at least a three-year commitment from whomever he plays for. I think at this point the Packers will do that, and keep Love for another year to develop him and try to get something in return (unless Rodgers suffers some injury or his play somehow falls of drastically next year). Maybe they'd even keep Love for two more seasons, then trade him with that fifth year option in play. But if Rodgers still wants to get paid to the highest level (and he's the kind of guy who seems to measure respect in dollars), I don't see how the Packers can re-sign Adams (or anyone else for that matter, e.g. Preston Smith), or how they'd also manage to extend Jaire Alexander or Elgton Jenkins. If the Packers accommodate Rodgers, I don't see how they can keep the level of talent necessary to have the kind of top contending team they have this year. And you can't just expect to draft so well every year that you can just keep plugging new stars into the system. Damn Rodgers. Wish he had the sense to structure a deal that is team-friendly. I wish he'd realize that his legacy is not dependent upon the size of his contract but upon the number of SB's he can appear in.

[George Cumby]

^ This. If he does the right thing, the Pack could be positioned well for however long he's on the team and even beyond.

But, given he's apparently addled by his fame, etc, who knows......

[bobblehead]

Look at the team with pretty good surrounding talent and in dire need of a competent QB. I come up with two captain obvious teams.

DENVER
PITTSBURG

Both are giving up over two 1st rounders plus for Rodgers.


With that being said, if Gutebag does his job AROD will stay and retire as a Packer. He's drafted and used FA well enough to give the Love Machine away for a Quarter Pounder with Cheese, a 5th rounder, or whatever the heck you can get for him if he wants.

If an aged, lost his job alex smith was worth a 2nd and a never was like Jimmy G was worth a 2nd, I would hope we could get a 2nd for Love if he shows well next preseason.

But to the Rodgers question I have been consistent from the start. I said he would show up and play this season. I have said that if he plays similar to last season they will lock him up to a new deal that doesn't destroy the cap for another 2 years. He has played well.

[King Friday]

You can eliminate the choice of the organization deciding to move on from Rodgers. I don't think that is logical. The Packers absolutely want to keep Rodgers. I don't believe the selection of Love was some grand scheme to jettison Rodgers, and clearly the last two seasons have revealed the only true option for the Packers is to fight to keep him.

I still have the feeling that Rodgers is coming to the realization that he's not likely to find a markedly better situation anywhere else, and leaving means he will only have to work a lot harder in the years ahead. As long as the Packers allow him to have input into decision making, I'm guessing he'll be okay with it even if he never sees eye to eye with someone like Gute.

The ability to fit him and Adams under the cap is there. At this point, I would guess there's a greater chance they stay than leave.

[King Friday]

I wish he'd realize that his legacy is not dependent upon the size of his contract but upon the number of SB's he can appear in.

I think he absolutely understands his legacy is about Super Bowls. His displeasure with the front office was about selecting Love, who would provide nothing to help get a Rodgers led team to the Super Bowl, rather than getting a player that would.

Rodgers has repeatedly said this isn't about money, and I believe him. He's got plenty. He wants rings. He wants to know the organization will go out of its way to bring in talent that can help now, not 5 years from now. I think the Packers have done a reasonable job this year convincing him of that, and if they can work with him to establish a 2-3 year roadmap of how to stay at the top, I think he's likely to stay.

[texaspackerbacker]

Good to see most or all of the rats' posts coming around to making sense now - we keep him, fairly long term, just a few shades of difference on how it all comes down and about getting something for Love. Hopefully Gutekunst thinks and acts as sensibly as the posters in here. How about now AND 5 years from now?

[RashanGary]

Rodgers is playing too well to get rid of. It will be interesting to see what players are kept and what players are let go.

Stokes was a lucky pick. Meyers looked like a good pick.

Next year we need to get lucky and hit on three more. If we bring in 5 good ones, we can afford to lose 5 good ones and still be in it.

The salary cap is 208M we are over by 42M

If we cleaned house

Z 16M savings
P 12M savings
Amos 8M savings
Turner 5M savings
Cobb 9M savings

That’s about 50M in savings. Resigning Rodgers could save another 15M. Resigning Jaire could save a little. We might be able to keep Adams and Rodgers if we part ways with a handful of the other solid players who are high paid.

[RashanGary]

There might even be a way to keep a couple of the cap savings guys and resign Rodgers and Adams. The cap is supposed to go way up in 2023

[RashanGary]

A part of the point I’m making is that keeping Adams and Rodgers together is almost necessary. All that chemistry can’t be replaced. It would take the next guy 7 years to get to that level with Rodgers.

[smuggler]

Amos would be the hardest cut to swallow.

[RashanGary]

Amos would be the hardest cut to swallow.

I think they could find a way to get Amos, Rodgers and Adams under the cap.

[RashanGary]

Amos would be the hardest cut to swallow.

Both Z and P would be hard too. We’d have Garvin starting and Tipa as the top backup.

But what’s worse, losing Z and P or losing Rodgers and Adams. It’s kind of a no brainer.

[RashanGary]

The cap is expected to reach 260M by 2024. Probably 230M in 2023. So big increases are happening in the coming years. That means any losses would be short term. Z, P and Cobb might be all that’s needed to keep Rodgers and Adams. And the future cap increases would take care of anyone else we’re trying to keep around.

[texaspackerbacker]

Obviously we keep Rodgers and Adams. Amos too is almost a sure thing. I think we cut Zadarius but not Preston - it can definitely be done. Turner, especially after this injury, I think is more than 50/50 to be gone. Cobb I think gets cut and then re-signed for way less - say $2-4 million. We keep everybody else worth keeping too.

R E L A X all of you who tend to panic so easily hahahaha. It can be done; It should be done; It will be done.

[George Cumby]

Does anyone else think Preston has improved from last year?

Kind of hard to say with Z being injured, but right now I'd rather keep Preston.

[Joemailman]

Does anyone else think Preston has improved from last year?

Kind of hard to say with Z being injured, but right now I'd rather keep Preston.

Preston has had a great year, and I think will get a contract extension to stay here and lower his 2022 cap number. I think it's too risky to do that with Z due to his back problems.

[bobblehead]

I think he absolutely understands his legacy is about Super Bowls. His displeasure with the front office was about selecting Love, who would provide nothing to help get a Rodgers led team to the Super Bowl, rather than getting a player that would.

Rodgers has repeatedly said this isn't about money, and I believe him. He's got plenty. He wants rings. He wants to know the organization will go out of its way to bring in talent that can help now, not 5 years from now. I think the Packers have done a reasonable job this year convincing him of that, and if they can work with him to establish a 2-3 year roadmap of how to stay at the top, I think he's likely to stay.

How many times do I need to see this statement disproven. They all demand to be paid every cent they can squeeze out. Brady has taken a lot of "less than market" deals. Other than him I can't recall it being done by a star. You might get a Wes Mathews for a discount at the end of his career. But game changers demand top dollar. See: Watt, JJ He claimed it was about winning, then signed a deal that almost everyone on this board agreed was a joke given his history of staying on the field. Rodgers will sign an extension of 3 years (4 including the one left). It will make him one of the top paid QBs in the league and it will relieve the cap in 2022 and 2023 and then become an albatross for 2 years. That is exactly what will happen. Bookmark this and taunt me if he signs something at any real discount.

[bobblehead]

Rodgers is playing too well to get rid of. It will be interesting to see what players are kept and what players are let go.

Stokes was a lucky pick. Meyers looked like a good pick.

Next year we need to get lucky and hit on three more. If we bring in 5 good ones, we can afford to lose 5 good ones and still be in it.

The salary cap is 208M we are over by 42M

If we cleaned house

Z 16M savings
P 12M savings
Amos 8M savings
Turner 5M savings
Cobb 9M savings

That’s about 50M in savings. Resigning Rodgers could save another 15M. Resigning Jaire could save a little. We might be able to keep Adams and Rodgers if we part ways with a handful of the other solid players who are high paid.

I think it will be more like 15m by re signing Rodgers. 9m from Cobb. Z is gone for 16m. That is 40m. A little finagling and fudging will give us room to re sign Adams. The losses will be Douglas and Campbell that we won't be able to keep. Probably will lose a couple solid players who contribute, but we just can't pay. The core can be retained.

[call_me_ishmael]

How many times do I need to see this statement disproven. They all demand to be paid every cent they can squeeze out. Brady has taken a lot of "less than market" deals. Other than him I can't recall it being done by a star. You might get a Wes Mathews for a discount at the end of his career. But game changers demand top dollar. See: Watt, JJ He claimed it was about winning, then signed a deal that almost everyone on this board agreed was a joke given his history of staying on the field. Rodgers will sign an extension of 3 years (4 including the one left). It will make him one of the top paid QBs in the league and it will relieve the cap in 2022 and 2023 and then become an albatross for 2 years. That is exactly what will happen. Bookmark this and taunt me if he signs something at any real discount.

Totally agree. Rodgers will be the highest paid QB in dollars earned the next few years. Tough to compare with Mahomes contract since Mahomes is so long and cap will obviously keep going up. Rodgers will be highest paid over the next few years and rightfully so, he's playing the best.

[Joemailman]

Mahomes' contract averages 45M but doesn't include a lot of guaranteed money. It's mostly roster bonuses. Rodgers might accept slightly less than that per year but would want more guaranteed money. It's doable with the salary cap reportedly going up to 250M by 2024.

[call_me_ishmael]

Mahomes' contract averages 45M but doesn't include a lot of guaranteed money. It's mostly roster bonuses. Rodgers might accept slightly less than that per year but would want more guaranteed money. It's doable with the salary cap reportedly going up to 250M by 2024.

Homeboy is 38 though, I'm worried about him still being healthy in 2024 !! I think they'll figure out a way to make it work with voidable years. I don't think they will care much about paying him for a few years after he's gone if he stays 'cause they'll have a rookie QB and be rebuilding then anyway. Can tie it in with consistent PR appearances, etc.

[texaspackerbacker]

How many times do I need to see this statement disproven. They all demand to be paid every cent they can squeeze out. Brady has taken a lot of "less than market" deals. Other than him I can't recall it being done by a star. You might get a Wes Mathews for a discount at the end of his career. But game changers demand top dollar. See: Watt, JJ He claimed it was about winning, then signed a deal that almost everyone on this board agreed was a joke given his history of staying on the field. Rodgers will sign an extension of 3 years (4 including the one left). It will make him one of the top paid QBs in the league and it will relieve the cap in 2022 and 2023 and then become an albatross for 2 years. That is exactly what will happen. Bookmark this and taunt me if he signs something at any real discount.

I mostly agree with this. It in fact is mostly about money. However, it's more pride and perception of money for the high end guys like Rodgers. They obviously know that the face value of a back loaded contract doesn't mean much, but it looks good in reports about them being the "highest paid" or damn near it.

As I said, the only one we likely won't retain is Zadarius. Preston we should and will keep - extended as somebody said to take the sting out of the cap situation. Obviously we retain Adams; Ditto Jaire. I don't think we let Campbell go or maybe even Douglas. We really ought to be able to satisfy them with nice bonuses and backloaded salaries which don't hurt the cap significantly. Cobb I think gets cut, but I think it is with the understanding that he will probably end up right back in Green Bay for drastically less money - unless he can find somebody else to drastically overpay him.

[Joemailman]

I'm not sure Douglas will be back. When you already have Stokes and Alexander, you don't need to pay big money to a guy who would be your #3 CB. Better off using the money on Campbell.

[texaspackerbacker]

That may be true, but that choice shouldn't and probably won't need to be made.

[bobblehead]

That may be true, but that choice shouldn't and probably won't need to be made.

Agreed. There is no choice. We can NOT afford both. The true choice is if we can afford one of them. And that isn't really the choice. Its who we have to jettison to afford one.

[texaspackerbacker]

Wrong. It can easily be done with a reasonable cap hit. They should keep both, and I'm fairly sure they will.