motife
09-17-2006, 11:56 AM
Packers not in elite teams' league
Posted: Sept. 16, 2006
On the Packers
Bob McGinn
Green Bay - It apparently works in Europe as a mechanism to sustain competitive play in the top-level professional soccer leagues.
Maybe the time is right for new Commissioner Roger Goodell to bring the process of relegation to the National Football League.
With tongue planted firmly in cheek, a personnel director for an NFL team said the creation of A and B divisions might be the best way to curb what he views as the increasing disparity between the good teams and the bad teams in pro football.
"They should make it like soccer," said the scout who agreed for another year to share some of what he knows with readers of the Journal Sentinel. "That way you could put all these crummy teams in the B division and give them a chance to win some games. Then if you win enough games in the B division you get to go up to the A the next year."
That's essentially how it goes in England with the Premier League, in Spain with La Liga, in Italy with Serie A and in Germany with the Bundesliga. Last year in England, three of the 20 teams in the English Premier League were relegated to the next league down, while three were moved up.
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If our personnel man had his way, the NFL would field a 10-team B division made up of Green Bay, Detroit, New Orleans and San Francisco from the National Football Conference and the New York Jets, Buffalo, Houston, Cleveland, Tennessee and Oakland from the American Football Conference
Among the 22 teams in the A division, he rates Arizona, Kansas City, Washington and Tampa Bay as the clubs that would loom as the leading candidates to drop if relegation were in effect for 2007.
A year ago, the scout estimated that 25 teams had a chance for the playoffs. Today, he sees 19.
"I think parity has dropped off," he said. "You can go through the league right now and there are 10 teams that you can say, 'They've got no shot.' There's probably 12 teams that could say with a straight face that they could win the Super Bowl."
When it comes to parity, much of it would be found among the dregs of the NFL.
"That's going to be really fluid," he said. "You could be the 10th team in Week 2 but by Week 16 you might be No. 1 of the B group. Except for the head coach (Nick Saban), you would have had Miami in the B division last year. They weren't a very good team. But they won their last six and got out of the B division."
Despite the Jets' 1-0 record, the scout still lists them along with the Titans and the Browns as the worst of the worst. Based on its defeat at home last Sunday against the Jets, the scout sees Tennessee as the weakest of the have-nots.
If the Jets are any good at all, they would figure to have the best chance for promotion next year into the A division. Eight of the Jets' 16 games will come against other B division foes. On the other end of the spectrum is New Orleans, which plays just three of the wretched.
The Packers, with six games against B-leaguers starting this afternoon with New Orleans, entered the weekend ranked No. 32 in the ESPN Power Rankings. High revenues, magnificent facilities, keen home-field advantage and supportive management give Green Bay inherent advantages to ward off a drought.
"They've got all those factors plus the history of the franchise," the personnel man said. "Players will come in there. They could turn it around in a couple years."
At some point, the Packers will have to find someone besides Brett Favre to play quarterback. Until they do, the franchise appears lodged in limbo.
"If you're going to be the youngest team in the league and win four games, I don't know that you would want the quarterback back if you thought (Aaron) Rodgers could do it," the scout said. "I hate to paint them in a corner as being dumb, and I don't know what all was involved in that. It's just a hard thing staring them in the face."
The personnel man said that if the season progresses badly, the Packers will be forced at some point to tell Favre that his consecutive-game streak and pursuit of records must take a backseat to finding out if Rodgers can play.
"If you can get Aaron Rodgers to just not lose the game and play really good defense and run the ball, then you'd be fine," he said. "But if you think he's got to be Brett Favre and run all over the field and bring us from behind, then you may be in trouble. You never know about a quarterback until they go out and play."
When the personnel man analyzes the 32 starting quarterbacks, he rates only four or five as capable of winning a game followed by another 10 or 12, including Favre, that can be successful in the right situation.
Based on winning a game right now, the scout would take Favre over 16 quarterbacks: Rex Grossman, Jon Kitna, Drew Bledsoe, Mark Brunell, Chris Simms, Kurt Warner, Alex Smith, Drew Brees, J.P. Losman, Chad Pennington, Charlie Frye, David Carr, Byron Leftwich, Kerry Collins, Aaron Brooks and Philip Rivers.
He would take these 15 quarterbacks over Favre: Matt Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Steve McNair, Carson Palmer, Jake Plummer and a healthy Trent Green.
Poor drafts under Mike Sherman, the failure to make good use of free agency and a system built around helping the poor teams conspired to end the Packers' run of 13 straight non-losing seasons, according to the scout.
It paved the way for the hiring of general manager Ted Thompson by team president Bob Harlan in January 2005.
Of the other 15 GMs, the personnel man said he would take Thompson over the New York Giants' Ernie Accorsi, New Orleans' Mickey Loomis, Detroit's Matt Millen, the New York Jets' Mike Tannenbaum, Cleveland's Phil Savage and Buffalo's Levy.
Eight got his nod over Thompson, including Chicago's Jerry Angelo, Carolina's Marty Hurney, Atlanta's Rich McKay, Tennessee's Floyd Reese, San Diego's A.J. Smith, Kansas City's Carl Peterson, Indianapolis' Bill Polian and Baltimore's Ozzie Newsome.
He rated Thompson on a par with Seattle's Tim Ruskell.
A year ago, the scout gave Thompson an 8-5 edge against his peers.
The decision by Thompson to hire 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy is something the scout wouldn't have done. Of the six new coaches without previous head-coaching experience, he said that he would have taken Brad Childress, Gary Kubiak, Scott Linehan, Eric Mangini and Rod Marinelli over McCarthy. He rated McCarthy and Sean Payton as equals.
"Twenty months is too early to condemn the guy when you knew you were going to take the team down and start over again," the personnel man said. "I think you need to give him a longer time."
Given that McCarthy has a three-year contract and works for a free-spending organization that within the last decade fired a coach after one year, the scout said it should not be a foregone conclusion that the coach would return in 2007.
"I think that's true throughout the NFL," he said. "But they don't care about paying you out in Green Bay. If they didn't think things were going well, they'd write the check and send you on your way."
By the way, the executive has been at this a long time. He has an outstanding track record and an impeccable reputation, has worked for a team that has won big and studies tape of all teams 12 months of the year.
Given that the AFC has won five of the six last Super Bowls, he continues to rate the AFC as the superior conference and picks one of its members to win it all.
"I could not go to Vegas and pick out four teams and feel really good about all four having a shot to be there," he said. "But I would take New England because of the coach (Bill Belichick). I don't see a great team that he'll have to play with his average bunch."
Coloring the Packers
Last week, a personnel director for another NFL team provided this color-coded rating of 58 players under contract to the Green Bay Packers. The executive evaluates players year-round and takes into consideration performances in exhibition games, especially by young players. The scout says a player's durability, injury history and character are key elements in his grading system. Each player is assigned a color category.
BLUE: Makes big plays on a consistent basis. Will win games. Among the top two or three at his position.
RED: A very good player capable of making big plays. Probably among the top 10 at his position. Has a chance to make the Pro Bowl.
PURPLE: A solid starter. He won't be going to the Pro Bowl, but a team can win with him. Can't win games but won't lose them, either.
GREEN: A backup. If he's young, a team would be content with him. If he's older, a team would be looking to replace him.
YELLOW: A young player who hasn't played much and might have a chance to develop. Anyone else, you don't want on the roster.
Packers Breakdown
The scout used a plus sign (+) to indicate that a player was on the high end of a category and a minus sign (-) to indicate that a player was on the low end.
BLUES: None.
REDS (1): DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila.
PURPLES (15): WR Donald Driver (+), DE Aaron Kampman (+), DT Cullen Jenkins (+), LS Rob Davis (+), T Chad Clifton, T Mark Tauscher, QB Brett Favre, RB Ahman Green, DT Ryan Pickett, DT Corey Williams, LB Nick Barnett, CB Charles Woodson, C Scott Wells (-), DE Mike Montgomery (-), CB Al Harris (-).
GREENS (21): DT Colin Cole (+), LB Abdul Hodge (+), S Nick Collins (+), S Marquand Manuel (+), G Tony Moll, G Jason Spitz, T-G Junius Coston, C Chris White, FB William Henderson, LB A.J. Hawk, P Jon Ryan, WR Greg Jennings (-), WR Robert Ferguson (-), TE Bubba Franks (-), T-G Daryn Colledge (-), T Kevin Barry (-), RB Noah Herron (-), LB Ben Taylor (-), LB Brady Poppinga (-), S Tyrone Culver (-), K Dave Rayner (-).
YELLOWS (21): QB Ingle Martin (+), DE Jason Hunter (+), LB Tracy White (+), CB Will Blackmon (+), WR Koren Robinson, WR Ruvell Martin, TE David Martin, TE Donald Lee, TE Tory Humphrey, G Tony Palmer, T Josh Bourke, QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Vernand Morency, RB Arliss Beach, DT Kenderick Allen, DT Johnny Jolly, LB Kurt Campbell, CB Ahmad Carroll, CB Jarrett Bush, S Charlie Peprah, S Marviel Underwood.
Position-by-position
RECEIVERS: "Driver is a solid player. The rest are either guys who never will do it or guys you hope will develop. Jennings has a chance. Ferguson is reaching the point where you don't think he's ever going to do it. Koren, I don't know what the heck you think you're going to end up with. They don't have a tight end who does anything really well. I don't think they'll ever develop."
OFFENSIVE LINE: "The tackles are adequate. Tauscher, you can live with him. Clifton is kind of on the way down. At least he has not played back to his level. And the interior is just young guys you're hoping develop. Wells has improved as a center. He was awful as a guard. You'd think you'd have a chance to hit on a couple of the others. Spitz won't ever be a real athletic guy, but he's productive and tough. There's not an abundance of athletic ability in the others."
QUARTERBACKS: "Favre, in the right situation, can still win games. I think he's past the point where he can win the game for you. You can't ask him to have to make big plays. I think that's the biggest problem. You don't want to be critical of the kid (Rodgers) because he's in another new system, but it looks like it will be awhile, if ever, if he develops. He doesn't look like he has a lot of confidence out there. At least Martin is an athlete. He looks like a much better athlete than Rodgers."
RUNNING BACKS: "It's hard for the amount of carries that Green has had in his career to think he'll do it for 16 games. I would not see him as a full-time player at this point in his career. Morency is 26 years old. He made plays at Oklahoma State, but you're worried about the mental stuff. There's just a lot of question marks about him. Herron is just a try-hard guy. I just don't see a lot of upside at the position."
DEFENSIVE LINE: "It's really not a bad group. There's a lot of depth at tackle and the ends are solid. You got a big-play guy (Gbaja-Biamila) and Kampman's a solid, blue-collar, every-down type guy. He's got a chance to win as a rusher. Not consistently but enough. There's depth with Montgomery. Hunter can run."
LINEBACKERS: "You would certainly have to think they're on the come with that group. Barnett is pretty athletic. With Hawk and Hodge, you'd think that would be a pretty good group in a couple years. I always thought Poppinga never had a position. I thought he'd be a better end than linebacker. Hodge isn't a good enough athlete to play outside."
SECONDARY: "I think the corners are on the downward slide. I don't know if Woodson is ever going to get back to the level he was playing at. Harris is on the downward end. I think you've got to keep it real vanilla for him to be successful. I personally don't think Carroll will ever get it. Blackmon is a project but has a chance because he's an athlete. Athletically, Collins has a chance to be a good player Now can he ever figure it all out? I think Manuel is a backup, but he's a tough guy. The rest aren't full-time players."
SPECIALISTS: "It's a tough deal replacing a kicker and getting someone to kick there full-time. He (Rayner) better be a tough kid. At least (Ryan) can get you out of a bad position."
Rating the NFC North
The personnel director also broke down the other NFC North teams, in addition to a sampling of his favorites in the NFC and the AFC. For each team, the blue, red and purple players are listed. Long-snappers were omitted.
CHICAGO BEARS
Blues: LB Brian Urlacher.
Reds: WR Muhsin Muhammad, T John Tait (-), C Olin Kreutz (-), RB Thomas Jones (+), DE Adewale Ogunleye, DT Tommie Harris (-), DE Alex Brown, S Mike Brown (-).
Purples: G Ruben Brown (-), T Fred Miller (-), FB Jason McKie, DT Ian Scott, LB Lance Briggs, LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (-), CB Charles Tillman (+), S Chris Harris, DT Tank Johnson, DT Alfonso Boone (+), KR-CB Devin Hester, K Robbie Gould (+), P Brad Maynard.
Greens (18); Yellows (12).
Comment: "It'll be the same way for them to win as it's been the last five years. They'll have to win it playing defense and running the ball. On defense, they have the line and the one linebacker are really good players. The rest are kind of just guys. But they play well within the scheme and they can all tackle. The offensive line isn't overly talented but they play hard and maul you. I don't know if the running back (Jones) can hold up again. But he runs hard and makes plays. They've got no chance at quarterback. They'll end up having to make a change. And (Brian) Griese has been through four teams and isn't much of a leader. He'll end up choking at some point in time."
DETROIT LIONS
Blues: None.
Reds: DT Shaun Rogers, K Jason Hanson (-).
Purples: WR Roy Williams (+), T Jeff Backus, G Damien Woody (+), RB Kevin Jones, KR-WR Eddie Drummond, DE Cory Redding (+), DT Shaun Cody (+), DE James Hall, P Nick Harris (+).
Greens (24); Yellows (17).
Comment: "They've got a little talent on defense. He (coach Rod Marinelli) will have them playing hard. I just don't think they're talented enough to go win many games. Mike Martz still thinks he's the head coach. I don't see how Marinelli can put up with that guy for long. For them to be successful, they can't screw it up on offense and do what Minnesota and Chicago are doing. Martz will want to take some chances and wing it around."
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Blues: G Steve Hutchinson, DT Kevin Williams.
Reds: DT Pat Williams, S Darren Sharper (+), K Ryan Longwell (-).
Purples: WR Troy Williamson, T Bryant McKinnie (+), C Matt Birk (+), T Marcus Johnson (-), TE Jim Kleinsasser, WR Travis Taylor, QB Brad Johnson, RB Chester Taylor, FB Tony Richardson, RB Mewelde Moore, DE Kenechi Udeze (-), DE Erasmus James (+), LB Ben Leber (-), LB E.J. Henderson (-), CB Fred Smoot, CB Antoine Winfield (+), DT Ross Kolodziej (-), P Chris Kluwe.
Greens (12); Yellows (17).
Comment: "They've almost done 180 over the last four years on how they're going to have to win a game. It's going to be on defense. As much as they love the quarterback, him holding up 16 games and trying to make plays, I don't know. They're just trying not to screw it up on offense and win it on defense. I think Chester Taylor is an adequate guy. Of the 32 guys in the league he's in the lower half."
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Blues: WR Steve Smith (-), DE Julius Peppers, P Jason Baker.
Reds: C Justin Hartwig (-), T Jordan Gross (-), DE Mike Rucker (-), CB Ken Lucas (+), CB Chris Gamble (-), K John Kasay (-).
Purples: T Travelle Wharton (IR), G Mike Wahle (+), TE Kris Mangum, WR Keyshawn Johnson, QB Jake Delhomme (+), FB Brad Hoover (-), RB DeShaun Foster (+), RB DeAngelo Williams (-), DT Maake Kemoeatu, DT Kris Jenkins (+), LB Thomas Davis, LB Dan Morgan (+), S Mike Minter (+), DT Damione Lewis (-), DT Jordan Carstens, DT Tony Brown (-).
Greens (14); Yellows (13).
Comment: "I really like the head coach (John Fox). Might be the second-best coach of all behind (Bill) Belichick. He knows what he wants and he's not going to deviate from it. They're going to run the ball, take some shots on play-action and play good defense. Their quarterback is an adequate guy. They're good on defense and good enough on offense to get by, especially in the NFC."
DALLAS COWBOYS
Blues: None.
Reds: TE Jake Witten (-), WR Terry Glenn (-), LB Greg Ellis (-), LB DeMarcus Ware (+), CB Terence Newman (-).
Purples: WR Terrell Owens (+), T Flozell Adams (+), G Kyle Kosier (-), C Andre Gurode, G Marco Rivera (-), QB Drew Bledsoe, RB Julius Jones, C Al Johnson, TE Anthony Fasano, WR Patrick Crayton, DE Marcus Spears (-), NT Jason Ferguson (+), DE Chris Canty (+), LB Bradie James, LB Akin Ayodele (+), CB Anthony Henry (+), S Roy Williams (+), DE Jay Ratliff (-), P Mat McBriar, K Mike Vanderjagt.
Greens (12); Yellows (15).
Comment: "The key on offense is whether they can get enough out of the quarterback. I don't know if the receiver (Owens) is the big-time player right now that they think he is. They don't have a full-time type running back, so it will put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Their defense can be pretty solid. They've certainly got good enough players on defense."
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Blues: T Walter Jones, RB Shaun Alexander.
Reds: T Sean Locklear, QB Matt Hasselbeck (-), DT Rocky Bernard, LB Lofa Tatupu (-), LB Julian Peterson, K Josh Brown (-).
Purples: WR Bobby Engram, G Floyd Womack, C Robbie Tobeck (-), G Chris Gray (-), WR Darrell Jackson (-), T Tom Ashworth (-), WR Deion Branch (+), TE Jerramy Stevens, DE Bryce Fisher, DT Chuck Darby, DE Grant Wistrom (+), LB Leroy Hill (+), CB Marcus Trufant (+), S Michael Boulware, S Ken Hamlin (+), DT Craig Terrill (+), DT Chris Cooper (-).
Greens (16); Yellows (12).
Comment: "They've been typical of the NFC teams for the last few years. They got on a run at the right time. They're not a very dominant team. They've got holes. Everything went their way last year. It would not shock me if they went 9-7. (Mike) Holmgren is talking about wanting to retire. You don't know how that plays out. Last year, I thought the offense, the defense in the second half (of the season) and the quarterback were very well-coached."
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Blues: WR Marvin Harrison, QB Peyton Manning, DE Dwight Freeney, K Adam Vinatieri.
Reds: WR Reggie Wayne (-), LB Cato June (-), S Bob Sanders (-), DT Corey Simon, P Hunter Smith.
Purples: T Tarik Glenn (+), G Ryan Lilja, C Jeff Saturday (+), TE Dallas Clark, WR Brandon Stokley (-), WR Aaron Moorehead (-), TE Bryan Fletcher, DE Robert Mathis (+), DT Montae Reagor, DT Raheem Brock (-), LB Gary Brackett (+), CB Nick Harper, CB Jason David, S Mike Doss (+), DE Josh Thomas (-), CB Marlin Jackson.
Greens (14); Yellows (13).
Comment: "I think it will be a tougher year for them. (Howard) Mudd does a great job with that offensive line. It's like having a coach on the field with the quarterback. Without the running back (Edgerrin James) that may hurt them. Defensively, I thought they played over their heads last year. I don't think they can hold up against the run if the game stays close."
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Blues: QB Tom Brady.
Reds: DE Richard Seymour, S Rodney Harrison (-), P Josh Miller.
Purples: T Matt Light, G Logan Mankins (+), C Dan Koppen (-), G Stephen Neal (+), T Nick Kaczur, TE Ben Watson (+), TE Daniel Graham, RB Corey Dillon, C-G Russ Hochstein (+), RB Laurence Maroney (+), DE Ty Warren (+), NT Vince Wilfork (+), LB Tedy Bruschi (+), LB Mike Vrabel, CB Asante Samuel (+), S Eugene Wilson, DE Mike Wright, DE Jarvis Green.
Greens (11); Yellows (19).
Comment: "Same thing every year. They do as good a job as anybody of finding something a player can do. They can talk about Scott Pioli bringing in all these guys. I defy you to bring in those guys any place else and win games. The head coach (Bill Belichick) has really done a great job. There isn't any question he's the best. Last year, they should have been a 6-10 team. But he kind of pasted them together and they're a play away from being in the championship game."
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Blues: S Troy Polamalu.
Reds: TE Heath Miller (-), RB Willie Parker (-), WR Hines Ward, LB James Farrior (-), LB Joey Porter (-).
Purples: WR Cedrick Wilson, G Alan Faneca (+), C Jeff Hartings (+), T Max Starks (+), FB Dan Kreider, QB Ben Roethlisberger (+), TE Jerame Tuman, DE Aaron Smith (+), NT Casey Hampton (+), DE Brett Keisel (+), LB Clark Haggans (+), LB Larry Foote, CB Ike Taylor (-), NT Chris Hoke (+), DE Travis Kirschke, P Chris Gardocki (-), K Jeff Reed (+).
Greens (11); Yellows (18).
Comment: "Really solid. Kind of like Carolina. They know what type of players they want. They get them and fit them in the scheme and play the same thing. Their players are well-coached and play hard. What (Dick) LeBeau brought to that organization has really been underrated. If you took them apart individually, there's not a great player there really. They want to stop the run and be able to sit back in zone and go tackle you."
Posted: Sept. 16, 2006
On the Packers
Bob McGinn
Green Bay - It apparently works in Europe as a mechanism to sustain competitive play in the top-level professional soccer leagues.
Maybe the time is right for new Commissioner Roger Goodell to bring the process of relegation to the National Football League.
With tongue planted firmly in cheek, a personnel director for an NFL team said the creation of A and B divisions might be the best way to curb what he views as the increasing disparity between the good teams and the bad teams in pro football.
"They should make it like soccer," said the scout who agreed for another year to share some of what he knows with readers of the Journal Sentinel. "That way you could put all these crummy teams in the B division and give them a chance to win some games. Then if you win enough games in the B division you get to go up to the A the next year."
That's essentially how it goes in England with the Premier League, in Spain with La Liga, in Italy with Serie A and in Germany with the Bundesliga. Last year in England, three of the 20 teams in the English Premier League were relegated to the next league down, while three were moved up.
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If our personnel man had his way, the NFL would field a 10-team B division made up of Green Bay, Detroit, New Orleans and San Francisco from the National Football Conference and the New York Jets, Buffalo, Houston, Cleveland, Tennessee and Oakland from the American Football Conference
Among the 22 teams in the A division, he rates Arizona, Kansas City, Washington and Tampa Bay as the clubs that would loom as the leading candidates to drop if relegation were in effect for 2007.
A year ago, the scout estimated that 25 teams had a chance for the playoffs. Today, he sees 19.
"I think parity has dropped off," he said. "You can go through the league right now and there are 10 teams that you can say, 'They've got no shot.' There's probably 12 teams that could say with a straight face that they could win the Super Bowl."
When it comes to parity, much of it would be found among the dregs of the NFL.
"That's going to be really fluid," he said. "You could be the 10th team in Week 2 but by Week 16 you might be No. 1 of the B group. Except for the head coach (Nick Saban), you would have had Miami in the B division last year. They weren't a very good team. But they won their last six and got out of the B division."
Despite the Jets' 1-0 record, the scout still lists them along with the Titans and the Browns as the worst of the worst. Based on its defeat at home last Sunday against the Jets, the scout sees Tennessee as the weakest of the have-nots.
If the Jets are any good at all, they would figure to have the best chance for promotion next year into the A division. Eight of the Jets' 16 games will come against other B division foes. On the other end of the spectrum is New Orleans, which plays just three of the wretched.
The Packers, with six games against B-leaguers starting this afternoon with New Orleans, entered the weekend ranked No. 32 in the ESPN Power Rankings. High revenues, magnificent facilities, keen home-field advantage and supportive management give Green Bay inherent advantages to ward off a drought.
"They've got all those factors plus the history of the franchise," the personnel man said. "Players will come in there. They could turn it around in a couple years."
At some point, the Packers will have to find someone besides Brett Favre to play quarterback. Until they do, the franchise appears lodged in limbo.
"If you're going to be the youngest team in the league and win four games, I don't know that you would want the quarterback back if you thought (Aaron) Rodgers could do it," the scout said. "I hate to paint them in a corner as being dumb, and I don't know what all was involved in that. It's just a hard thing staring them in the face."
The personnel man said that if the season progresses badly, the Packers will be forced at some point to tell Favre that his consecutive-game streak and pursuit of records must take a backseat to finding out if Rodgers can play.
"If you can get Aaron Rodgers to just not lose the game and play really good defense and run the ball, then you'd be fine," he said. "But if you think he's got to be Brett Favre and run all over the field and bring us from behind, then you may be in trouble. You never know about a quarterback until they go out and play."
When the personnel man analyzes the 32 starting quarterbacks, he rates only four or five as capable of winning a game followed by another 10 or 12, including Favre, that can be successful in the right situation.
Based on winning a game right now, the scout would take Favre over 16 quarterbacks: Rex Grossman, Jon Kitna, Drew Bledsoe, Mark Brunell, Chris Simms, Kurt Warner, Alex Smith, Drew Brees, J.P. Losman, Chad Pennington, Charlie Frye, David Carr, Byron Leftwich, Kerry Collins, Aaron Brooks and Philip Rivers.
He would take these 15 quarterbacks over Favre: Matt Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Steve McNair, Carson Palmer, Jake Plummer and a healthy Trent Green.
Poor drafts under Mike Sherman, the failure to make good use of free agency and a system built around helping the poor teams conspired to end the Packers' run of 13 straight non-losing seasons, according to the scout.
It paved the way for the hiring of general manager Ted Thompson by team president Bob Harlan in January 2005.
Of the other 15 GMs, the personnel man said he would take Thompson over the New York Giants' Ernie Accorsi, New Orleans' Mickey Loomis, Detroit's Matt Millen, the New York Jets' Mike Tannenbaum, Cleveland's Phil Savage and Buffalo's Levy.
Eight got his nod over Thompson, including Chicago's Jerry Angelo, Carolina's Marty Hurney, Atlanta's Rich McKay, Tennessee's Floyd Reese, San Diego's A.J. Smith, Kansas City's Carl Peterson, Indianapolis' Bill Polian and Baltimore's Ozzie Newsome.
He rated Thompson on a par with Seattle's Tim Ruskell.
A year ago, the scout gave Thompson an 8-5 edge against his peers.
The decision by Thompson to hire 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy is something the scout wouldn't have done. Of the six new coaches without previous head-coaching experience, he said that he would have taken Brad Childress, Gary Kubiak, Scott Linehan, Eric Mangini and Rod Marinelli over McCarthy. He rated McCarthy and Sean Payton as equals.
"Twenty months is too early to condemn the guy when you knew you were going to take the team down and start over again," the personnel man said. "I think you need to give him a longer time."
Given that McCarthy has a three-year contract and works for a free-spending organization that within the last decade fired a coach after one year, the scout said it should not be a foregone conclusion that the coach would return in 2007.
"I think that's true throughout the NFL," he said. "But they don't care about paying you out in Green Bay. If they didn't think things were going well, they'd write the check and send you on your way."
By the way, the executive has been at this a long time. He has an outstanding track record and an impeccable reputation, has worked for a team that has won big and studies tape of all teams 12 months of the year.
Given that the AFC has won five of the six last Super Bowls, he continues to rate the AFC as the superior conference and picks one of its members to win it all.
"I could not go to Vegas and pick out four teams and feel really good about all four having a shot to be there," he said. "But I would take New England because of the coach (Bill Belichick). I don't see a great team that he'll have to play with his average bunch."
Coloring the Packers
Last week, a personnel director for another NFL team provided this color-coded rating of 58 players under contract to the Green Bay Packers. The executive evaluates players year-round and takes into consideration performances in exhibition games, especially by young players. The scout says a player's durability, injury history and character are key elements in his grading system. Each player is assigned a color category.
BLUE: Makes big plays on a consistent basis. Will win games. Among the top two or three at his position.
RED: A very good player capable of making big plays. Probably among the top 10 at his position. Has a chance to make the Pro Bowl.
PURPLE: A solid starter. He won't be going to the Pro Bowl, but a team can win with him. Can't win games but won't lose them, either.
GREEN: A backup. If he's young, a team would be content with him. If he's older, a team would be looking to replace him.
YELLOW: A young player who hasn't played much and might have a chance to develop. Anyone else, you don't want on the roster.
Packers Breakdown
The scout used a plus sign (+) to indicate that a player was on the high end of a category and a minus sign (-) to indicate that a player was on the low end.
BLUES: None.
REDS (1): DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila.
PURPLES (15): WR Donald Driver (+), DE Aaron Kampman (+), DT Cullen Jenkins (+), LS Rob Davis (+), T Chad Clifton, T Mark Tauscher, QB Brett Favre, RB Ahman Green, DT Ryan Pickett, DT Corey Williams, LB Nick Barnett, CB Charles Woodson, C Scott Wells (-), DE Mike Montgomery (-), CB Al Harris (-).
GREENS (21): DT Colin Cole (+), LB Abdul Hodge (+), S Nick Collins (+), S Marquand Manuel (+), G Tony Moll, G Jason Spitz, T-G Junius Coston, C Chris White, FB William Henderson, LB A.J. Hawk, P Jon Ryan, WR Greg Jennings (-), WR Robert Ferguson (-), TE Bubba Franks (-), T-G Daryn Colledge (-), T Kevin Barry (-), RB Noah Herron (-), LB Ben Taylor (-), LB Brady Poppinga (-), S Tyrone Culver (-), K Dave Rayner (-).
YELLOWS (21): QB Ingle Martin (+), DE Jason Hunter (+), LB Tracy White (+), CB Will Blackmon (+), WR Koren Robinson, WR Ruvell Martin, TE David Martin, TE Donald Lee, TE Tory Humphrey, G Tony Palmer, T Josh Bourke, QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Vernand Morency, RB Arliss Beach, DT Kenderick Allen, DT Johnny Jolly, LB Kurt Campbell, CB Ahmad Carroll, CB Jarrett Bush, S Charlie Peprah, S Marviel Underwood.
Position-by-position
RECEIVERS: "Driver is a solid player. The rest are either guys who never will do it or guys you hope will develop. Jennings has a chance. Ferguson is reaching the point where you don't think he's ever going to do it. Koren, I don't know what the heck you think you're going to end up with. They don't have a tight end who does anything really well. I don't think they'll ever develop."
OFFENSIVE LINE: "The tackles are adequate. Tauscher, you can live with him. Clifton is kind of on the way down. At least he has not played back to his level. And the interior is just young guys you're hoping develop. Wells has improved as a center. He was awful as a guard. You'd think you'd have a chance to hit on a couple of the others. Spitz won't ever be a real athletic guy, but he's productive and tough. There's not an abundance of athletic ability in the others."
QUARTERBACKS: "Favre, in the right situation, can still win games. I think he's past the point where he can win the game for you. You can't ask him to have to make big plays. I think that's the biggest problem. You don't want to be critical of the kid (Rodgers) because he's in another new system, but it looks like it will be awhile, if ever, if he develops. He doesn't look like he has a lot of confidence out there. At least Martin is an athlete. He looks like a much better athlete than Rodgers."
RUNNING BACKS: "It's hard for the amount of carries that Green has had in his career to think he'll do it for 16 games. I would not see him as a full-time player at this point in his career. Morency is 26 years old. He made plays at Oklahoma State, but you're worried about the mental stuff. There's just a lot of question marks about him. Herron is just a try-hard guy. I just don't see a lot of upside at the position."
DEFENSIVE LINE: "It's really not a bad group. There's a lot of depth at tackle and the ends are solid. You got a big-play guy (Gbaja-Biamila) and Kampman's a solid, blue-collar, every-down type guy. He's got a chance to win as a rusher. Not consistently but enough. There's depth with Montgomery. Hunter can run."
LINEBACKERS: "You would certainly have to think they're on the come with that group. Barnett is pretty athletic. With Hawk and Hodge, you'd think that would be a pretty good group in a couple years. I always thought Poppinga never had a position. I thought he'd be a better end than linebacker. Hodge isn't a good enough athlete to play outside."
SECONDARY: "I think the corners are on the downward slide. I don't know if Woodson is ever going to get back to the level he was playing at. Harris is on the downward end. I think you've got to keep it real vanilla for him to be successful. I personally don't think Carroll will ever get it. Blackmon is a project but has a chance because he's an athlete. Athletically, Collins has a chance to be a good player Now can he ever figure it all out? I think Manuel is a backup, but he's a tough guy. The rest aren't full-time players."
SPECIALISTS: "It's a tough deal replacing a kicker and getting someone to kick there full-time. He (Rayner) better be a tough kid. At least (Ryan) can get you out of a bad position."
Rating the NFC North
The personnel director also broke down the other NFC North teams, in addition to a sampling of his favorites in the NFC and the AFC. For each team, the blue, red and purple players are listed. Long-snappers were omitted.
CHICAGO BEARS
Blues: LB Brian Urlacher.
Reds: WR Muhsin Muhammad, T John Tait (-), C Olin Kreutz (-), RB Thomas Jones (+), DE Adewale Ogunleye, DT Tommie Harris (-), DE Alex Brown, S Mike Brown (-).
Purples: G Ruben Brown (-), T Fred Miller (-), FB Jason McKie, DT Ian Scott, LB Lance Briggs, LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (-), CB Charles Tillman (+), S Chris Harris, DT Tank Johnson, DT Alfonso Boone (+), KR-CB Devin Hester, K Robbie Gould (+), P Brad Maynard.
Greens (18); Yellows (12).
Comment: "It'll be the same way for them to win as it's been the last five years. They'll have to win it playing defense and running the ball. On defense, they have the line and the one linebacker are really good players. The rest are kind of just guys. But they play well within the scheme and they can all tackle. The offensive line isn't overly talented but they play hard and maul you. I don't know if the running back (Jones) can hold up again. But he runs hard and makes plays. They've got no chance at quarterback. They'll end up having to make a change. And (Brian) Griese has been through four teams and isn't much of a leader. He'll end up choking at some point in time."
DETROIT LIONS
Blues: None.
Reds: DT Shaun Rogers, K Jason Hanson (-).
Purples: WR Roy Williams (+), T Jeff Backus, G Damien Woody (+), RB Kevin Jones, KR-WR Eddie Drummond, DE Cory Redding (+), DT Shaun Cody (+), DE James Hall, P Nick Harris (+).
Greens (24); Yellows (17).
Comment: "They've got a little talent on defense. He (coach Rod Marinelli) will have them playing hard. I just don't think they're talented enough to go win many games. Mike Martz still thinks he's the head coach. I don't see how Marinelli can put up with that guy for long. For them to be successful, they can't screw it up on offense and do what Minnesota and Chicago are doing. Martz will want to take some chances and wing it around."
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Blues: G Steve Hutchinson, DT Kevin Williams.
Reds: DT Pat Williams, S Darren Sharper (+), K Ryan Longwell (-).
Purples: WR Troy Williamson, T Bryant McKinnie (+), C Matt Birk (+), T Marcus Johnson (-), TE Jim Kleinsasser, WR Travis Taylor, QB Brad Johnson, RB Chester Taylor, FB Tony Richardson, RB Mewelde Moore, DE Kenechi Udeze (-), DE Erasmus James (+), LB Ben Leber (-), LB E.J. Henderson (-), CB Fred Smoot, CB Antoine Winfield (+), DT Ross Kolodziej (-), P Chris Kluwe.
Greens (12); Yellows (17).
Comment: "They've almost done 180 over the last four years on how they're going to have to win a game. It's going to be on defense. As much as they love the quarterback, him holding up 16 games and trying to make plays, I don't know. They're just trying not to screw it up on offense and win it on defense. I think Chester Taylor is an adequate guy. Of the 32 guys in the league he's in the lower half."
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Blues: WR Steve Smith (-), DE Julius Peppers, P Jason Baker.
Reds: C Justin Hartwig (-), T Jordan Gross (-), DE Mike Rucker (-), CB Ken Lucas (+), CB Chris Gamble (-), K John Kasay (-).
Purples: T Travelle Wharton (IR), G Mike Wahle (+), TE Kris Mangum, WR Keyshawn Johnson, QB Jake Delhomme (+), FB Brad Hoover (-), RB DeShaun Foster (+), RB DeAngelo Williams (-), DT Maake Kemoeatu, DT Kris Jenkins (+), LB Thomas Davis, LB Dan Morgan (+), S Mike Minter (+), DT Damione Lewis (-), DT Jordan Carstens, DT Tony Brown (-).
Greens (14); Yellows (13).
Comment: "I really like the head coach (John Fox). Might be the second-best coach of all behind (Bill) Belichick. He knows what he wants and he's not going to deviate from it. They're going to run the ball, take some shots on play-action and play good defense. Their quarterback is an adequate guy. They're good on defense and good enough on offense to get by, especially in the NFC."
DALLAS COWBOYS
Blues: None.
Reds: TE Jake Witten (-), WR Terry Glenn (-), LB Greg Ellis (-), LB DeMarcus Ware (+), CB Terence Newman (-).
Purples: WR Terrell Owens (+), T Flozell Adams (+), G Kyle Kosier (-), C Andre Gurode, G Marco Rivera (-), QB Drew Bledsoe, RB Julius Jones, C Al Johnson, TE Anthony Fasano, WR Patrick Crayton, DE Marcus Spears (-), NT Jason Ferguson (+), DE Chris Canty (+), LB Bradie James, LB Akin Ayodele (+), CB Anthony Henry (+), S Roy Williams (+), DE Jay Ratliff (-), P Mat McBriar, K Mike Vanderjagt.
Greens (12); Yellows (15).
Comment: "The key on offense is whether they can get enough out of the quarterback. I don't know if the receiver (Owens) is the big-time player right now that they think he is. They don't have a full-time type running back, so it will put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Their defense can be pretty solid. They've certainly got good enough players on defense."
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Blues: T Walter Jones, RB Shaun Alexander.
Reds: T Sean Locklear, QB Matt Hasselbeck (-), DT Rocky Bernard, LB Lofa Tatupu (-), LB Julian Peterson, K Josh Brown (-).
Purples: WR Bobby Engram, G Floyd Womack, C Robbie Tobeck (-), G Chris Gray (-), WR Darrell Jackson (-), T Tom Ashworth (-), WR Deion Branch (+), TE Jerramy Stevens, DE Bryce Fisher, DT Chuck Darby, DE Grant Wistrom (+), LB Leroy Hill (+), CB Marcus Trufant (+), S Michael Boulware, S Ken Hamlin (+), DT Craig Terrill (+), DT Chris Cooper (-).
Greens (16); Yellows (12).
Comment: "They've been typical of the NFC teams for the last few years. They got on a run at the right time. They're not a very dominant team. They've got holes. Everything went their way last year. It would not shock me if they went 9-7. (Mike) Holmgren is talking about wanting to retire. You don't know how that plays out. Last year, I thought the offense, the defense in the second half (of the season) and the quarterback were very well-coached."
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Blues: WR Marvin Harrison, QB Peyton Manning, DE Dwight Freeney, K Adam Vinatieri.
Reds: WR Reggie Wayne (-), LB Cato June (-), S Bob Sanders (-), DT Corey Simon, P Hunter Smith.
Purples: T Tarik Glenn (+), G Ryan Lilja, C Jeff Saturday (+), TE Dallas Clark, WR Brandon Stokley (-), WR Aaron Moorehead (-), TE Bryan Fletcher, DE Robert Mathis (+), DT Montae Reagor, DT Raheem Brock (-), LB Gary Brackett (+), CB Nick Harper, CB Jason David, S Mike Doss (+), DE Josh Thomas (-), CB Marlin Jackson.
Greens (14); Yellows (13).
Comment: "I think it will be a tougher year for them. (Howard) Mudd does a great job with that offensive line. It's like having a coach on the field with the quarterback. Without the running back (Edgerrin James) that may hurt them. Defensively, I thought they played over their heads last year. I don't think they can hold up against the run if the game stays close."
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Blues: QB Tom Brady.
Reds: DE Richard Seymour, S Rodney Harrison (-), P Josh Miller.
Purples: T Matt Light, G Logan Mankins (+), C Dan Koppen (-), G Stephen Neal (+), T Nick Kaczur, TE Ben Watson (+), TE Daniel Graham, RB Corey Dillon, C-G Russ Hochstein (+), RB Laurence Maroney (+), DE Ty Warren (+), NT Vince Wilfork (+), LB Tedy Bruschi (+), LB Mike Vrabel, CB Asante Samuel (+), S Eugene Wilson, DE Mike Wright, DE Jarvis Green.
Greens (11); Yellows (19).
Comment: "Same thing every year. They do as good a job as anybody of finding something a player can do. They can talk about Scott Pioli bringing in all these guys. I defy you to bring in those guys any place else and win games. The head coach (Bill Belichick) has really done a great job. There isn't any question he's the best. Last year, they should have been a 6-10 team. But he kind of pasted them together and they're a play away from being in the championship game."
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Blues: S Troy Polamalu.
Reds: TE Heath Miller (-), RB Willie Parker (-), WR Hines Ward, LB James Farrior (-), LB Joey Porter (-).
Purples: WR Cedrick Wilson, G Alan Faneca (+), C Jeff Hartings (+), T Max Starks (+), FB Dan Kreider, QB Ben Roethlisberger (+), TE Jerame Tuman, DE Aaron Smith (+), NT Casey Hampton (+), DE Brett Keisel (+), LB Clark Haggans (+), LB Larry Foote, CB Ike Taylor (-), NT Chris Hoke (+), DE Travis Kirschke, P Chris Gardocki (-), K Jeff Reed (+).
Greens (11); Yellows (18).
Comment: "Really solid. Kind of like Carolina. They know what type of players they want. They get them and fit them in the scheme and play the same thing. Their players are well-coached and play hard. What (Dick) LeBeau brought to that organization has really been underrated. If you took them apart individually, there's not a great player there really. They want to stop the run and be able to sit back in zone and go tackle you."