Predict the new money on Jordan Love’s new deal

[RashanGary]

He’s got a year left on his current deal, so whatever he signs for, this last year will average in and it will be slightly more friendly. But just new money, what’s he going to get?

[bobblehead]

I went big. It will be too much, but its what the market bears.

[Upnorth]

I would love to see a longer term high incentive contract.

I voted based on hope.

I bet it will be in that 3 year 38 to 42 mill range

[RashanGary]

Twitter saying it’s gonna be 50 per in new money. Seems a little high to me.

[Fosco33]

We’ll see if Love cares about short term cash OR rings and fame.

[Joemailman]

Twitter saying it’s gonna be 50 per in new money. Seems a little high to me.

And Twitter is never wrong. :razz: I said 40-45. We'll see. 50 per year would put him at #5 right now. 45 at #8. 40 at #10. 50 per on an extension can't be ruled out since he's set to make less than 10 in 2024.

[RashanGary]

And Twitter is never wrong. :razz: I said 40-45. We'll see. 50 per year would put him at #5 right now. 45 at #8. 40 at #10. 50 per on an extension can't be ruled out since he's set to make less than 10 in 2024.

I said 40-45 too. Didn’t realize 50 was #5. Damn. They have the last year of his deal 10M. And then two years of franchise tags (40 per) So they already have him on a 3 year 90 deal, practically speaking. That puts him at a disadvantage in negotiations and motivates his side to want to get a deal done.

50 is fair…. With the way the leverage is in the teams favor, 42.5 seems doable….. But there is the matter of being disrespectful… 47.5M per in new money is my new guess.

[RashanGary]

4 years 47.5M per year in new money
Add in his one year 10M existing deal

That brings us to 5 years, 200M. A nice even number. And it’s that magic number where 200M really feels substantial. We can stop the discussion. This is the contract. Write it down in pen because it’s not changing.

[texaspackerbacker]

I want to see him signed long term - as many as 8 or 10 years for more - with a healthy bonus and a strongly backloaded contract that on paper is way up there - $40-50 million per season on average, maybe even more. On the slim chance (IMO) that he turns to shit, this is the NFL, not MLB - they could always cut him before the backloaded part. And if he trends upward from very good now to great in the future, which I see as likely, then we have him signed for the prime of his career.

[Joemailman]

Neither side would likely want to do an 8-10 year deal unless the numbers were really in their favor. Reason being is the uncertainty of what the market for a top QB will be that far into the future.

[Bretsky]

Keep in mind his agent is the same as Danny Dimes. NO WAY it's less than the 4 year 160MIL he signed.

I think it's going to in the 45 to 50 range; maybe we REDO his deal for next year and he gives us a bargain to it averages the 40-45 range

[texaspackerbacker]

That's why it would be good for the team - it certainly isn't gonna go down over time. I didn't say I predicted it, I said I WANTED 8 or 10 or more years. The team will likely be pushing for as long as possible. Love and his agent probably won't want quite that much.

[Bretsky]

I think it's 4; it gives GB time and Love time to get a bigger deal if he excels. Keep him hungry

[red]

i'll put this here

i got this idea off of some podcast yesterday

IF, lefleur doesn't shit the bed by sticking with his good buddy at DC instead had hired an even average DC, we are probably looking at a 10-12 win team that is for sure a solid playoff team

in his first year as a starter with targets made up of nothing but rookies and 2nd year guys (one who seems to be always injured), an o-line that is OK at best, and a top weapon RB who has missed about half the year. Love has put up numbers just as good as anyone else

the question is. if we had a competent defense (and not one of the worst in the NFL) and were making a solid playoff run, would jordan love, in his first year starting, actually be in the running for the MVP?

i think yes. and it blows my mind

[bobblehead]

Red, I would argue that if we squeak into the playoffs Love WILL get MVP votes. There was an article on it from one of the packer sites and his numbers are comparable to the contenders. Let me look it up quick.

https://lombardiave.com/posts/green-bay-packers-jordan-love-mvp-race-numbers-01hjj33stq5k

Love: 3,587 passing yards
27 passing touchdowns
11 interceptions
91.8 passer rating
3 rushing touchdowns

Brock Purdy: 4,050 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs, 112.2 rating, 2 rushing TDs
Jalen Hurts: 3,636 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 89.6 rating, 14 rushing TDs
Lamar Jackson: 3,357 yards, 19 TDs, 7 INTs, 97.2 rating, 5 rushing TDs
Patrick Mahomes: 3,938 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 91.7 rating
Josh Allen: 3,778 yards, 27 TDs, 15 INTs, 93.7 rating, 13 rushing TDs
Tua Tagovailoa: 4,214 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 105.5 rating
Dak Prescott: 3,892 yards, 30 TDs, 7 INTs, 104.2 rating, 2 rushing TDs

If you factor in what he is working with, he deserves to be in the conversation. Now I'm speculating, but I bet if you looked at late season results he is better than most of that list. I think he only has one pick in the last 5 games.

[red]

Red, I would argue that if we squeak into the playoffs Love WILL get MVP votes. There was an article on it from one of the packer sites and his numbers are comparable to the contenders. Let me look it up quick.

https://lombardiave.com/posts/green-bay-packers-jordan-love-mvp-race-numbers-01hjj33stq5k

Love: 3,587 passing yards
27 passing touchdowns
11 interceptions
91.8 passer rating
3 rushing touchdowns

Brock Purdy: 4,050 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs, 112.2 rating, 2 rushing TDs
Jalen Hurts: 3,636 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 89.6 rating, 14 rushing TDs
Lamar Jackson: 3,357 yards, 19 TDs, 7 INTs, 97.2 rating, 5 rushing TDs
Patrick Mahomes: 3,938 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 91.7 rating
Josh Allen: 3,778 yards, 27 TDs, 15 INTs, 93.7 rating, 13 rushing TDs
Tua Tagovailoa: 4,214 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 105.5 rating
Dak Prescott: 3,892 yards, 30 TDs, 7 INTs, 104.2 rating, 2 rushing TDs

If you factor in what he is working with, he deserves to be in the conversation. Now I'm speculating, but I bet if you looked at late season results he is better than most of that list. I think he only has one pick in the last 5 games.

i think you're right

thanks for posting everyones stats, i was just looking at them but was too lazy to copy and paste them all

he's right in there with all those guys

[call_me_ishmael]

I think you're delusional Red to think they're be a 10 to 12 win team with a competent DC. They just don't have a lot of talent on the team, and the talent they do have has been hurt (Bak, Alexander, RB)

[red]

I think you're delusional Red to think they're be a 10 to 12 win team with a competent DC. They just don't have a lot of talent on the team, and the talent they do have has been hurt (Bak, Alexander, RB)

delusional?

we are 7-9 right now. the defense lost the games against the falcons, giants and bucs (at the least)

if the D make one fucking play in each of those games, we are 10-6 with 2 winnable games to go

WITH all those injuries

[Bretsky]

delusional?

we are 7-9 right now. the defense lost the games against the falcons, giants and bucs (at the least)

if the D make one fucking play in each of those games, we are 10-6 with 2 winnable games to go

WITH all those injuries



that goes both ways

We got lucky plenty this year. WE needed Derrick Carr to get injured and their solid kicker to muff a game winning field goal just a bit longer then an extra point. With Stafford we don't beat the Rams. We've had plenty of breaks this year as well.

I want Barry gone...like LAST YEAR, but our defense has problems all around it. It's not just Barry

[bobblehead]

This team should have a ton of organic growth on offense. That should improve the record alone.

On D, a new Coordinator definitely changes the equation.

Lucky, unlucky, you tend to be what your record says you are. The packers right now are brutally young and lost games because they are learning. I would hope injury luck improves next year. I'll say it again. We have been running out a fleet of pass catchers in their first 2 years and after injury, none of them have been picked in the first 2 rounds. Show me one other team that does that? Hell, when we were trotting out Adams and a bunch of stiffs everyone here was crying that Gutes didn't give Rodgers ANYTHING to work with (cuz I guess Adams sucks). Love is dropping 30 with Bo Melton and company....all the while with a D that can't get off the field.

[Fritz]

This team should have a ton of organic growth on offense. That should improve the record alone.

On D, a new Coordinator definitely changes the equation.

Lucky, unlucky, you tend to be what your record says you are. The packers right now are brutally young and lost games because JOE BARRY SUCKS AS A DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR. I would hope injury luck improves next year. I'll say it again. We have been running out a fleet of pass catchers in their first 2 years and after injury, none of them have been picked in the first 2 rounds. Show me one other team that does that? Hell, when we were trotting out Adams and a bunch of stiffs everyone here was crying that Gutes didn't give Rodgers ANYTHING to work with (cuz I guess Adams sucks). Love is dropping 30 with Bo Melton and company....all the while with a D that can't get off the field.


Okay. Had to fix that.

[bobblehead]

I said lost games, not all the games they lost. Barry certainly has cost them wins as well, but MiLF was't wrong about going 3 and out 3X last week. Barry fucking blows, but you need to kill that clock as well.

[Upnorth]

10 years 65mil average

[RashanGary]

Under 50 is going to be tough at this point.

[red]

Under 50 is going to be tough at this point.

his value went way up last night, and it was already going up the last half of the season

[texaspackerbacker]

Whatever it ends up being, it will be worth it, and it will also be doable with intelligent handling of the salary cap.

[Upnorth]

Under 50 is going to be tough at this point.

Under 60 is going to be tough unless he lays a rodgers sized 49er egg

[sharpe1027]

Veteran minimum. Don't most all players say they'd play the game for fun?

[QBME]

OK, don’t know shit about salaries, cap hits, etc.
Is it possible to structure a contract , guaranteed, to pay out over a whole bunch of years?
Like MLB?
First done by Bobby Bonilla, now by Shoei Ohtani.
Pay a guaranteed bunch up front, then pay out a bit, year by year?

[texaspackerbacker]

Unlike MLB, the only thing guaranteed is the bonus and the first year, and of course the bonus gets prorated against the cap for the duration of the contract. Paying out the huge bonuses can bite a team in the ass if the player has a career ending or debilitating injury or just fades in performance - that's the chance you take to beat the cap when signing somebody good.

Baseball, I remember somebody like Rickie Weeks and to a lesser extent Ryan Braun who were like millstones on the Brewers financial books for years when they faded due to injury or whatever. I assume there are a lot of other examples that could be cited on other teams.

[Joemailman]

OK, don’t know shit about salaries, cap hits, etc.
Is it possible to structure a contract , guaranteed, to pay out over a whole bunch of years?
Like MLB?
First done by Bobby Bonilla, now by Shoei Ohtani.
Pay a guaranteed bunch up front, then pay out a bit, year by year?

Signing bonuses can only be spread out over a maximum of 5 years.

[RashanGary]

Under 60 is going to be tough unless he lays a rodgers sized 49er egg

Oof. If he wins the sb he might reset the market. Damn!!

[Upnorth]

Oof. If he wins the sb he might reset the market. Damn!!

I think at nfccg he resets market. Win or lose.
We thought he would wait for dak, I think dak will wait for loves contract

[bobblehead]

Oof. If he wins the sb he might reset the market. Damn!!

I would be fine with resetting the market if it comes with a Lombardi.

He was reasonable with his 5th year option. He is so very very even keeled I wouldn't be shocked if the deal is team friendly. Of course at this point even team friendly is a shit ton of money.

[texaspackerbacker]

Team friendly in most cases means that the player is betting on himself to still be good enough to make it to those big money later years without getting cut. I could see Love thinking that way - getting a record setting but heavily backloaded contract. It worked with Favre, and it worked with Rodgers too - team friendly but ultimately making the player filthy rich too.

[MadtownPacker]

https://youtu.be/KJWSm13LBh8?si=sRSm6bgC4RlK2gnt

[Upnorth]

OK, don’t know shit about salaries, cap hits, etc.
Is it possible to structure a contract , guaranteed, to pay out over a whole bunch of years?
Like MLB?
First done by Bobby Bonilla, now by Shoei Ohtani.
Pay a guaranteed bunch up front, then pay out a bit, year by year?

I think the 10.yr Mahomet deal is a good framework.

[call_me_ishmael]

Rodgers signed his new contract in March of 2022. Love will sign his in March of 2024. I suspect Love will pass Rodgers in annual dollars but significant less guaranteed. They will do the two years and we'll see since he hasn't played that much yet.