WHAT IS MORE LIKELY ???

[Bretsky]

THOUGHTS ?????

[Bretsky]

Discuss, fellow homers :)

[MadtownPacker]

Didn’t even vote on your own poll you shitter.

Have to give you credit, this might be the most balanced one you have ever made. None of those sith-type loaded questions like Bobble called out.

[MadtownPacker]

Discuss, fellow homers :)
Bitch it’s SupaBowl or bust. The expectation has been here before Love and now that he got everyone hot and bothered there is no other objective.

[RashanGary]

Statistically missing the playoffs is far more likely.

[texaspackerbacker]

No way they miss the playoffs even if heaven forbid, Love gets hurt. So it has to be making the Super Bowl.

I'm not seeing the result - who voted which way.

[Bretsky]

CRAP; I SUCK; Pollmaster forgot to make the votes viewable.

MAD, can you alter ?

I think most will feel very confident with make the playoffs and SB is quite possible

[Bretsky]

Didn’t even vote on your own poll you shitter.

Have to give you credit, this might be the most balanced one you have ever made. None of those sith-type loaded questions like Bobble called out.


Oh Mad, just come clean and admit I'm the GOAT of the polls :))))

[Joemailman]

It was a tough call, but I voted Super Bowl. Reason being that given all their young talent, I think the chances that the Packers will be better in 2024 than 2023 are greater than the chances they will be worse. And if they are better, their chances of making the Super Bowl are excellent. I get the other argument though. Statistically, on average there is a 6% chance of making the Super Bowl and a 56% chance of missing the playoffs. I just think the Packers are way above average.

[MadScientist]

No way they miss the playoffs even if heaven forbid, Love gets hurt. So it has to be making the Super Bowl.

I'm not seeing the result - who voted which way.

I worry when I completely agree with Tex. The receivers are good enough that Clifford could do all right now. Once they figured out how to run the routes, this offense became really good.

[Scott Campbell]

I placed my homer vote.

[smuggler]

I voted the sad choice. Making the Super Bowl is so unlikely for any given team on any given year. Missing the playoffs would only take one very unfortunate injury.

I think both are unlikely, but winning the NFC is just more unlikely.

[bobblehead]

Miss the playoffs is definitely the more likely of this binary choice. However, the most likely thing to happen is make it to playoffs and don't get to the Owl.

[texaspackerbacker]

Still can't see who voted for what. 4 seriously wee wrongheaded enough to vote no playoffs? They really ought to have the balls to identify themselves hahahaha.

[MadtownPacker]

CRAP; I SUCK; Pollmaster forgot to make the votes viewable.

MAD, can you alter ?

I think most will feel very confident with make the playoffs and SB is quite possible
Once a poster votes it won’t let me change it.

[MadtownPacker]

Oh Mad, just come clean and admit I'm the GOAT of the polls :))))
Poles, get it right.

[MadtownPacker]

I worry when I completely agree with Tex. The receivers are good enough that Clifford could do all right now. Once they figured out how to run the routes, this offense became really good.It would be an interesting study to see how the Packers did when rats agreed with Tex. We have almost 20 years of data.

[Joemailman]

Based on what happened in the 2nd half of last year and the playoffs, you can make the argument that the Packers finished as the #3 team in the NFC. So is it more likely that the Packers go from #3 to #1, or from #3 to #8?

[MadtownPacker]

Based on what happened in the 2nd half of last year and the playoffs, you can make the argument that the Packers finished as the #3 team in the NFC. So is it more likely that the Packers go from #3 to #1, or from #3 to #8?

Exactly, eff the Debbie downers who lean it the other way. I see no reason the Packers would not strongly compete for the playoffs. Division or wildcard the odds would be decent they get back. From there who knows. Con men like Bretsky are good at making people question themselves.

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/super-bowl-odds-nfl-betting-bm06/

[texaspackerbacker]

It would be an interesting study to see how the Packers did when rats agreed with Tex. We have almost 20 years of data.

As GREAT as those 20 or so years have been for the Packers, and as optimistic as I've consistently been, the two must correlate pretty well.

[smuggler]

If the defense is top-10, I'd change my vote. But we have no evidence of that.

[Tony Oday]

This team is a SB contender for sure. The defense needs to step up and it will be interesting on how Jacobs gels. Weakest part of the team is kicking.

[Joemailman]

If the defense is top-10, I'd change my vote. But we have no evidence of that.

Packers were top 10 in points allowed. Problem was they were 23rd in both 1st downs allowed and forced turnovers. Too often couldn't get off the field when they needed to. If they have a healthy and motivated Jaire to go along with McKinney, I think top 10 is very realistic.

[bobblehead]

Still can't see who voted for what. 4 seriously wee wrongheaded enough to vote no playoffs? They really ought to have the balls to identify themselves hahahaha.

I have identified myself. As a binary choice the answer is more likely to miss the playoffs.

[texaspackerbacker]

Yeah, I saw that and maybe a couple of others of the seven voting that way.

A person doesn't have to think it's a sure thing the Packers win or make it to the SB to vote that way the way the poll is worded, just that it is more likely than the other choice. I actually do think the Packers make it to and even win it. But with the talent on this team, I see the fairly low bar of making the playoffs as damn near a sure thing. So that has to be the most likely.

[call_me_ishmael]

I have identified myself. As a binary choice the answer is more likely to miss the playoffs.

Agreed. I could just as easily see a world where they take 3rd in the division vs winning it. I think Chicago is gonna surprise some folks over the next couple years.

[texaspackerbacker]

Yeah, some folks hahahaha - the Bears are gonna surprise anybody who is dumb enough to think they don't still suck (worse than with Fields IMO).

[RashanGary]

Yeah, some folks hahahaha - the Bears are gonna surprise anybody who is dumb enough to think they don't still suck (worse than with Fields IMO).

I agree. I follow a lot of bears fans on X. I’ve listened the last couple years to JT O’Sullivan about QB play. It’s a different game than college. So many guys bust in the NFL who were elite in college.

One of the core things JT talks about is the ability to play fast and anticipate. The windows are smaller. The ball has to come out before it’s obvious the guy is open. Justin Fields is probably he best QB in the nfl in terms of arm talent (strength, accuracy, touch, etc) and legs. He might be the best ever in those terms. But he can’t see it until it’s open and by then it’s too late.

Caleb Williams is exactly the same with less leg talent and more off platform talent. There’s a case to be made that Williams can process the game slowly yet make a ton of big plays off schedule.

But really the centerpiece of every great QB is playing on time and Williams can’t.

I would not be surprised at all if he busts and I’m here for it. Bears fans will implode.

[Fritz]

I went with the more statistically probable - they miss the playoffs.

My god, I’m in mid-season form already.

[Joemailman]

I went with the more statistically probable - they miss the playoffs.

My god, I’m in mid-season form already.

No Kool-Aid for you!

[Sparkey]

Packers with a 34.48% chance to miss the playoffs
Packers with a 3.2% chance to make the superbowl.

[RashanGary]

Packers with a 34.48% chance to miss the playoffs
Packers with a 3.2% chance to make the superbowl.

Exactly. Missing the playoffs is a very common occurrence in the NFL. 50%+ miss the playoffs. The Packers have a pretty good ascending situation and should be less likely than average.

But to take something as uncommon and 2 in 32 chance and think they’re more likely to achieve that than something closer to a coin flip….thats just fans being fans but not being very realistic.

[MadtownPacker]

Wait aren’t you the guy that bets preseason for the Pack to win it all? Or is that APB?

[smuggler]

Well bets pay based on how unlikely a thing is to happen. The poll isn't asking about bets.

[MadtownPacker]

The GA guy shows up :lol:.

It’s not about betting but is based on the same thing. How confident are you in the Packers. I am surprised so many say no playoffs versus just getting to, not winning, the SB. Would think more are believe another SB window has open. Too bad that puto Bretsky effed up and let people hide on the poll.

[texaspackerbacker]

Shocking that it's up to TEN people now basically thinking it's unlikely the Packers make the playoffs. Sheeeeeesh

I can see negativists whining that we won't win or make it to the Super Bowl, but with the talent and coaching on this team, it seems like virtually a sure thing the Packers make the playoffs.

Probably anonymity has something to do with it - they can get with that kind of stupidity without having their name attached to it.

[Joemailman]

Shocking that it's up to TEN people now basically thinking it's unlikely the Packers make the playoffs. Sheeeeeesh

I can see negativists whining that we won't win or make it to the Super Bowl, but with the talent and coaching on this team, it seems like virtually a sure thing the Packers make the playoffs.

Probably anonymity has something to do with it - they can get with that kind of stupidity without having their name attached to it.

I don't think those people are saying it's likely the Packers will miss the playoffs. They are saying that missing the playoffs is more likely than making it to the Super Bowl. I would guess most of them think the Packers will make the playoffs.

[MadScientist]

True, if you think the Packers have an above average 10% chance at making the superbowl and a much below average 12% chance of missing the playoffs, it still means that you think missing out is more likely. But this is not the time of year for such an pessimistic attitude. This is the time to look at the NFC and say none of the other teams are clearly better than the Packers and a lot are clearly worse, so the Superbowl is more likely than missing out.

[Bretsky]

this poll is F'ckin awesome :)

I voted more likely they make the SB by the way.

[bobblehead]

I will say this. If Halfwit has them playing downhill to their strengths we have a really good shot at the owl.

[King Friday]

Odds in Vegas to reach SB ~ +800
Odds in Vegas to not make the playoffs ~ +160

Clearly better odds to not make the postseason, which is why the bet wouldn’t pay out as much. Anyone who thinks the better chance is to make the Super Bowl doesn’t understand math. Admitting the obvious is not the same as stating the Packers can’t make the SB.

[sharpe1027]

Odds in Vegas to reach SB ~ +800
Odds in Vegas to not make the playoffs ~ +160

Clearly better odds to not make the postseason, which is why the bet wouldn’t pay out as much. Anyone who thinks the better chance is to make the Super Bowl doesn’t understand math. Admitting the obvious is not the same as stating the Packers can’t make the SB.

Just because you're right, and I've known that from the start, doesn't mean I'm going to change my vote.

[texaspackerbacker]

I don't think those people are saying it's likely the Packers will miss the playoffs. They are saying that missing the playoffs is more likely than making it to the Super Bowl. I would guess most of them think the Packers will make the playoffs.

As I stated, if it's 90-95% likely we make the playoffs/5-10% we don't - as certainly seems realistic, then if there's even a 10% or so chance of going to the SB - also very realistic, then that choice is more.

That 34.8% to make the playoffs is just idiotic with the quality of this team.

[King Friday]

That 34.8% to make the playoffs is just idiotic with the quality of this team.

Injuries will always be a part of the game. Jets fans had your confidence last year Tex. After one series, their season was over. That is why no team is 90% to make the playoffs.

[texaspackerbacker]

Yeah, grasp at that straw hahahahahahahahahahaha.

The Jets last season weren't even close quality-wise to this year's Packers. As for the prospect of Love getting hurt, first of all, Clifford is pretty damn good so we might make the playoffs anyway, and if we didn't, I said 90-95% we make the playoffs. Love getting hurt or a huge amount of injuries in general is pretty much what makes the 5-10% we don't. I suppose the usual suspects might see that otherwise, but then they're probably dumbasses in a lot of other ways too. If the shoe fits .......

[MadtownPacker]

Odds in Vegas to reach SB ~ +800
Odds in Vegas to not make the playoffs ~ +160

Clearly better odds to not make the postseason, which is why the bet wouldn’t pay out as much. Anyone who thinks the better chance is to make the Super Bowl doesn’t understand math. Admitting the obvious is not the same as stating the Packers can’t make the SB.
Obviously the actual numbers will favor missing the playoffs. Bretsky’s question isn’t that. It is about what you believe. Sad to see so many have lost the magic so soon after last season.

[Fritz]

Obviously the actual numbers will favor missing the playoffs. Bretsky’s question isn’t that. It is about what you believe. Sad to see so many have lost the magic so soon after last season.

Fire Half-Assley!

Fire The Flower!

He's lost control of the team!

Guter must go!

Gotta get warmed up here. Season's coming.

[MadtownPacker]

See that’s the spirit. The crying shouldn’t start until halftime of the first game.

[Bretsky]

Phily loses a home game and instead GB plays them in another country

The Packers play ZERO teams after they have their bye week.

Stars Aligning; Super Bowl or Bust !!! haha

[Sparkey]

Obviously the actual numbers will favor missing the playoffs. Bretsky’s question isn’t that. It is about what you believe. Sad to see so many have lost the magic so soon after last season.

The poll never asked anyone what they "believe", it specifically asks: what's more likely to happen:

I personally think the Packers make the playoffs. But that is not what the poll asked....

[texaspackerbacker]

hahahahaha explain please how what you would say is more likely is different from what you think or believe will happen.

[MadScientist]

hahahahaha explain please how what you would say is more likely is different from what you think or believe will happen.

Belief makes you think reality is different from actual probabilities. That's what belief is all about.

[MadtownPacker]

So you believe the Packers are probably not going to make the playoffs, based on the odds. :lol:

Fucking Bretsky, you did good on this one!

[texaspackerbacker]

Belief makes you think reality is different from actual probabilities. That's what belief is all about.

And what is "probability" other than some dumbass's belief about what the chance of something is hahahahaha.

[bobblehead]

I'm changing my vote. Packers are about to run off 3 in a row. It might be more, but lets start with 3 and see how many FAs we lose after that.

[sharpe1027]

So you believe the Packers are probably not going to make the playoffs, based on the odds. :lol:

Fucking Bretsky, you did good on this one!

You can believe the Packers are likely to make the playoffs, but still think the chance of making the Superbowl is lower than the chance of missing the playoffs.

Say the chance if making the playoffs is 60% and the chance of making the Superbowl is 30%. It's more likely they miss the playoffs than make the Superbowl, but it's still more likely they make the playoffs than miss.l the playoffs.

[bobblehead]

You can believe the Packers are likely to make the playoffs, but still think the chance of making the Superbowl is lower than the chance of missing the playoffs.

Say the chance if making the playoffs is 60% and the chance of making the Superbowl is 30%. It's more likely they miss the playoffs than make the Superbowl, but it's still more likely they make the playoffs than miss.l the playoffs.

Professor Sharpe. Fuck you with that logic stuff. You forgot to conclude with my favorite saying when something is so simple ("math is hard")

[sharpe1027]

Professor Sharpe. Fuck you with that logic stuff. You forgot to conclude with my favorite saying when something is so simple ("math is hard")

I am a fan not a professor. Plenty of fans smarter than me

[Joemailman]

It is more likely that the Packers will make the Super Bowl than miss the playoffs because The Bears Still Suck! Go Pack Go!

[bobblehead]

I am a fan not a professor. Plenty of fans smarter than me

but math is still hard.

[sharpe1027]

but math is still hard.

That's not a universal truth. 1+1 is not hard.

[bobblehead]

That's not a universal truth. 1+1 is not hard.

Now you are getting like tex in not being able to recognize sarcasm. Math isn't hard. Especially basic math. People make it seem very hard by trying to make a point that isn't accurate. Thus my sarcasm of "math is hard" when someone bends in circles insisting that 1+1 are 3.

Edit: And I was actually complementing your original point which laid out quite simply that the odds of missing the playoffs were much greater. Its not really a question. Its a question of "are you going to be a fan or a realist".

[sharpe1027]

Now you are getting like tex in not being able to recognize sarcasm. Math isn't hard. Especially basic math. People make it seem very hard by trying to make a point that isn't accurate. Thus my sarcasm of "math is hard" when someone bends in circles insisting that 1+1 are 3.

Edit: And I was actually complementing your original point which laid out quite simply that the odds of missing the playoffs were much greater. Its not really a question. Its a question of "are you going to be a fan or a realist".

It. Was. A. Joke.

[RashanGary]

Now you are getting like tex in not being able to recognize sarcasm. Math isn't hard. Especially basic math. People make it seem very hard by trying to make a point that isn't accurate. Thus my sarcasm of "math is hard" when someone bends in circles insisting that 1+1 are 3.

Edit: And I was actually complementing your original point which laid out quite simply that the odds of missing the playoffs were much greater. Its not really a question. Its a question of "are you going to be a fan or a realist".

Tex understands sarcasm. He uses the “is that sarcasm” bit to say that if you’re saying it for real you’re a moron.

[bobblehead]

It. Was. A. Joke.

Ok, so I'm getting like Tex. OMG!!!

[bobblehead]

Tex understands sarcasm. He uses the “is that sarcasm” bit to say that if you’re saying it for real you’re a moron.

Not true. You spend enough time in fyi to see Tex pull a sheldon cooper quite often.

[sharpe1027]

Ok, so I'm getting like Tex. OMG!!!

Not even close. You can blame my poor delivery of the joke.

[texaspackerbacker]

Tex understands sarcasm. He uses the “is that sarcasm” bit to say that if you’re saying it for real you’re a moron.

Good observation. I hate sarcasm, though, regardless.

[MadtownPacker]

So Sharpe is still thinking Packers will miss the playoff? :lol:

Note for Tex: That’s not sarcasm, that’s trolling.

[texaspackerbacker]

Oh, thanks. I never really knew exactly what trolling was. (really - not sarcasm hahahaha)

I guess we'll never know because Bretsky fucked up the poll, and the guy running the forum doesn't have a way of fixing it. (That one IS sarcasm - I luv ya both hahahaha)