Is MLF 'Owl Capable?

[George Cumby]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know the guy has a sick winning percentage. But in Big Games, his teams routinely seem to look unprepared.

Yesterday was a perfect example, the Vikes played with their hair on fire, the Packers looked FLAT and got out-coached.

Over and over this seems to be the case.

Thoughts?

[Patler]

People asked the same question about Andy Ried for years, until he finally won a Super Bowl after 20 years of good in-season winning percentages, lots of playoff appearances, and many playoff disappointments.

[Joemailman]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know the guy has a sick winning percentage. But in Big Games, his teams routinely seem to look unprepared.

Yesterday was a perfect example, the Vikes played with their hair on fire, the Packers looked FLAT and got out-coached.

Over and over this seems to be the case.

Thoughts?

I didn't think the Packers were flat. I thought there were 2 problems: Too many mental errors and MLF seemed to have no answer for the tough man pass defense the Vikings were playing. Packers didn't consistently move the ball through the air until the Vikings started playing prevent defense. I thought the defense played respectably considering the guys they had out. I felt going in the Packers would need to score 30+ to win the game.

[CaptainKickass]

https://annstawski.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/magic-8-ball.jpg?w=584

[Joemailman]

Most Super Bowl winning coaches win in their first 5 years with the team. But there are exceptions. Note: Andy Reid won a Super Bowl in his 7th season with the Chiefs, his 21st season as a head coach overall.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/18zjisd/only_five_head_coaches_won_their_first_super_bowl/?rdt=45891

Every Super Bowl winning coach except 5 won their first Super Bowl within 5 years of starting their job. Only Tom Landry (at the 6th attempt), Chuck Noll (6th), John Madden (8th), Bill Cowher (14th) and Andy Reid (7th) managed to win a Super Bowl after more than 5 years in their jobs.

Since 1977, just two coaches have won a first Super Bowl after having been in the job for more than five years, Cowher and Reid. In that time coaches like Reid (with the Eagles), Jeff Fisher, Lovie Smith, Mike Smith, Ron Rivera, Marv Levy, Marv Lewis, Dennis Green, Chuck Knox, John Fox, Dan Reeves, Marty Schottenheimer, Sam Wyche, Jason Garrett, Jack del Rio, Jim Mora and others have had 5+ year spells with teams that have yeilded nothing.

Sean McDermott and Kyle Shanahan are both in year 7 so they have a chance to break the trend, or maybe it's just too late for them now? This year might be Matt LaFleur's last chance while Zac Taylor's five year window has now closed and Mike Vrabel needs to move teams to restart his clock.

Data: Coach (year of first Super Bowl in that job)

(1967 is counted as year 1 for everyone since it was the first year anyone could win a Super Bowl)

Lombardi (1) Ewbank (3) Stram (4) McCafferty (1) Landry (6) Shula (3) Noll (6) Madden (8) Flores (2) Walsh (3) Gibbs (2) Ditka (4) Parcells (4) Seifert (1) Johnson (4) Switzer (2) Holmgren (5) Shanahan (3) Vermeil (3) Billick (2) Belichick (2) Gruden (1) Cowher (14) Dungy (5) Coughlin (4) Tomlin (2) Payton (4) McCarthy (5) Harbaugh (5) Carroll (4) Kubiak (1) Pederson (2) Reid (7) Arians (2) McVay (5)

[King Friday]

I didn't think the Packers were flat. I thought there were 2 problems: Too many mental errors and MLF seemed to have no answer for the tough man pass defense the Vikings were playing. Packers didn't consistently move the ball through the air until the Vikings started playing prevent defense. I thought the defense played respectably considering the guys they had out. I felt going in the Packers would need to score 30+ to win the game.

This. The first drive was going great until Jacobs coughed up the ball. Doubs and Reed are not great WRs against man coverage. Not having Watson was a killer, which is all the more reason to REST Watson this week.

[George Cumby]

I didn't think the Packers were flat. I thought there were 2 problems: Too many mental errors and MLF seemed to have no answer for the tough man pass defense the Vikings were playing. Packers didn't consistently move the ball through the air until the Vikings started playing prevent defense. I thought the defense played respectably considering the guys they had out. I felt going in the Packers would need to score 30+ to win the game.

Seems to me both of those are squarely on his shoulders........

I'm not saying he isn't the guy, but I'm starting to have my doubts........

[Bretsky]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know the guy has a sick winning percentage. But in Big Games, his teams routinely seem to look unprepared.

Yesterday was a perfect example, the Vikes played with their hair on fire, the Packers looked FLAT and got out-coached.

Over and over this seems to be the case.

Thoughts?

Or, did we just get hot at the right time last year, which game us false hope....and maybe we grossly overstimated the talent on this roster ? I'm not sure anymore.

Jacobs is great; Love throws less. Yet his completion percentage is below the average and he seems to have taken a step backwards this year

Reed, where is Reed. About 200 yards the past 7 games. Thought he might be Greg Jennings; he's just not gettting open anymore

Watson is a real talent, but he can't stay healthy

I used to think Wicks was a future #1 WR, now i'm wondering if his upside is a #3

And where the hell is the pass rush from the front 4 ? That guy we drafted from Iowa, who never started for Iowa; he's next to invsibile. And Gary, two years out from the knee surgery, is grossly overpaid for his production. And something seems wrong, mentally, with Jaire Alexander. He's invisible. The doctors cleared him to play weeks ago, he made it 10 plays, tapped out, and now we have heard nothing since.

We need to get hot or our playoffs lives will be short. And i don't wanna play Phily in round one either.

So did we all just overrate the talent on this team ??

[call_me_ishmael]

Sean McDermott and Kyle Shanahan are both in year 7 so they have a chance to break the trend, or maybe it's just too late for them now? This year might be Matt LaFleur's last chance while Zac Taylor's five year window has now closed and Mike Vrabel needs to move teams to restart his clock.


Very interesting post here. Thank you for sharing.

For the quoted piece specifically, I would be shocked if one of the two didn't get oen at some point. I guess we'll see. McDermott probably already would have if it weren't for Mahomes being otherworldly.

[call_me_ishmael]

So did we all just overrate the talent on this team ??

I think we probably did, at least the quality of the offense. The Aaron Jones affect is real. When he played, he opened up everything for everyone. This led to the O getting hot down the stretch last year.

Love is hard to get a read on. I don't know if he's any good or not. He doesn't make a ton of turnover plays but he doesn't really seem like a field tilter to me. Then again - is Jared Goff - yet he keeps winning using the same recipe of limiting mistakes and moving the sticks. They're very different players but neither strikes me as the type of guy that can carry a team single-handedly.

I made a similar post about 13 too. What is his ceiling? Man, IDK. Kinda agree that he is a #3. I also thought he would take a huge jump and become the guy. Not this year, anyway.

[Teamcheez1]

Certain components of the team didn’t live up to my expectations:
1. Hard to get a read on Love because our WR’s weren’t consistent from game to game. Last week’s Vikings game is a prime example.
2. The pass rush was mediocre at best.
3. Kicking game was a disaster until McManus.
4. Secondary was always injured and trotted out a different group almost every week.
5. I think beyond Cooper the LB corps left a lot to be desired.
6. OL needs more at a couple of positions.

I think Hafley and MLF can push this team higher, but we need some better internal improvement and are still missing some pieces, especially on defense.

[sharpe1027]

Most Super Bowl winning coaches win in their first 5 years with the team. But there are exceptions. Note: Andy Reid won a Super Bowl in his 7th season with the Chiefs, his 21st season as a head coach overall.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/18zjisd/only_five_head_coaches_won_their_first_super_bowl/?rdt=45891

Every Super Bowl winning coach except 5 won their first Super Bowl within 5 years of starting their job. Only Tom Landry (at the 6th attempt), Chuck Noll (6th), John Madden (8th), Bill Cowher (14th) and Andy Reid (7th) managed to win a Super Bowl after more than 5 years in their jobs.

Since 1977, just two coaches have won a first Super Bowl after having been in the job for more than five years, Cowher and Reid. In that time coaches like Reid (with the Eagles), Jeff Fisher, Lovie Smith, Mike Smith, Ron Rivera, Marv Levy, Marv Lewis, Dennis Green, Chuck Knox, John Fox, Dan Reeves, Marty Schottenheimer, Sam Wyche, Jason Garrett, Jack del Rio, Jim Mora and others have had 5+ year spells with teams that have yeilded nothing.

Sean McDermott and Kyle Shanahan are both in year 7 so they have a chance to break the trend, or maybe it's just too late for them now? This year might be Matt LaFleur's last chance while Zac Taylor's five year window has now closed and Mike Vrabel needs to move teams to restart his clock.

Data: Coach (year of first Super Bowl in that job)

(1967 is counted as year 1 for everyone since it was the first year anyone could win a Super Bowl)

Lombardi (1) Ewbank (3) Stram (4) McCafferty (1) Landry (6) Shula (3) Noll (6) Madden (8) Flores (2) Walsh (3) Gibbs (2) Ditka (4) Parcells (4) Seifert (1) Johnson (4) Switzer (2) Holmgren (5) Shanahan (3) Vermeil (3) Billick (2) Belichick (2) Gruden (1) Cowher (14) Dungy (5) Coughlin (4) Tomlin (2) Payton (4) McCarthy (5) Harbaugh (5) Carroll (4) Kubiak (1) Pederson (2) Reid (7) Arians (2) McVay (5)

They first five years are guaranteed to be less than 5 years. For several years it will still be heavily skewed before it reaches steady state.

Even now, approximately 2/3 of the teams have coaches that are in years 1-5. If you look at the likelihood of winning a SB with a long tenured coach, it's actually pretty good because their aren't that many in the denominator.

[call_me_ishmael]

Interesting post on drop rates. Notice anything?

https://www.reddit.com/r/GreenBayPackers/comments/1hryirj/highest_drop_rates_in_the_nfl_this_season_pff/

[Patler]

Even now, approximately 2/3 of the teams have coaches that are in years 1-5. If you look at the likelihood of winning a SB with a long tenured coach, it's actually pretty good because their aren't that many in the denominator.

Yup, most coaches who do not win a SB in the first 4 or 5 years are fired or leave, because the teams are not very good, whether it is the coach's fault, the GM's or owners. To make it past 5 years, the teams have to have had good records, been in the playoffs often and recently, and be viewed as legit SB contenders as the coaches reach their 5th seasons. That isn't the case very often. Belichick didn't make it past five seasons in Cleveland for many reasons.