motife
04-18-2006, 04:58 AM
Lessons learned from this year's free-agency binge
(Peter King - SI.com) I've long been of the belief that we kill too many trees writing about the draft. It's a fun exercise, but let's be honest: Of the 255 players picked last April, how many made a major impact? I'd say 10 to 15...
(Odell Thurman, Darrent Williams, Cadillac Williams, Logan Mankins, Jammal Brown, Heath Miller, Lofa Tatupu, Leroy Hill, Shawne Merriman, Luis Castillo), and, if you want to get cute about it, maybe some combo platter of the young Cowboys (Demarcus Ware, Chris Canty, Marion Barber, Rob Petitti). Some more will turn into great players, but the thing I've always disliked about the draft is making definitive judgments about the kind of NFL players these 22-year-old guys will become.
I don't mean to get on an anti-draft riff, because it is a source of legitimate hope. But the free-agency period, for the immediacy of it, is more telling about how good a team will be right away. And with free agency having pretty much come and gone, except for damaged stars like LaVar Arrington (questions about his knee) and Charles Woodson (questions about his everything), I thought it would be a good time to draw my 10 conclusions from the Great Market of 2006. In order, they are:
1. The Adam Vinatieri signing was a superb one by Indianapolis, but the Colts suffered some major hits on defense.
Vinatieri, the best clutch kicker of this era, certainly -- and perhaps in NFL history -- got $12 million over five years. That's $2.4 million a year. That's pretty reasonable, even for a guy who hasn't made a 50-yard field goal in four years. His cap number in 2006 -- $1.68 million -- is only 1.5 percent of the Colts' salary-cap total this year. Dirt cheap for a guy who could easily make the difference in two games for the Colts this season. And as much as the signing benefits Indy, it hurts the Colts' main competitor (along with Pittsburgh) for the Super Bowl this year. New England never was aggressive in trying to re-sign Vinatieri, though the Patriots did try to get something done in the two-million-plus range. The other two kickers on the market worth decent money, Ryan Longwell and Mike Vanderjagt, got $2 million and $1.83 million, on average, from Minnesota and Dallas, respectively. It's clear Vinatieri wanted to go -- to a dome and to a new team. Last week, Vinatieri told the Boston Herald he never really was close to going back to the Patriots and he didn't give the Pats a chance to match the deal he got from Indy. I have to believe New England would have matched what the Colts offered, if given the chance ... and if only to keep him from being a great dome kicker over the next two or three years for its chief rival.
Now for the bad news: The two defensive guys the Colts really didn't want to lose, they lost -- defensive tackle Larry Tripplett (to Buffalo) and linebacker David Thornton (to Tennessee). The Bills and Titans dished out deals worth $7.26 million and $7.6 million, respectively, for the first year of their contracts. That's money the Colts just couldn't afford. Talking to coach Tony Dungy at the league meetings a couple of weeks ago, he was still down about the losses, particularly Thornton.
2. Now we know how the Redskins play Houdini with the cap every year.
I hear it every winter -- from editors, readers, people in line at Starbucks. (True story: I got asked at an Orlando Starbucks during the league meetings how the Redskins were able to sign 10 guys to gigantic contracts every year.) The answer: They don't. It's 70 percent funny money. Take the case of linebacker Andre Carter, signed to a reported seven-year, $32.5 million contract on March 15. It's more accurately a one-year, $5.85 million deal, or a two-year, $10.18 million contract, or a three-year, $13.5 million deal. See, the Redskins sign players to long deals, but the contracts are back-loaded, meaning the players would get most of the money in the final years of the contracts, if they get the money at all. And if Carter turns out to be the defensive force the Redskins hope he'll be, they'll almost certainly let him play the first two years, then re-do the deal before the fat money kicks in. Specifically, in Carter's case, he has two major slices of money he may never see: $13.4 million, combined, in five separate roster bonuses to be earned if he's on the roster in 2008, '09, '10, '11 and '12; and salaries totaling $8.9 million between 2008 and 2012. Collectively, that's $22.3 million of $32 million he may never see. Now the other question you have is this: Won't the Redskins get killed on the salary cap if they release Carter after, say, two years? The answer is not really, because the only part of his contract that's guaranteed is the signing bonus, which is $5 million.
3. It's been years since I've seen money burn a hole in a team's pocket like I saw with Cleveland this year.
Here's the stat you need to know: LeCharles Bentley and Kevin Shaffer, signed to beef up the Browns' offensive line at center and tackle, respectively, will be paid a combined $20.5 million this season in salary and bonus money. That number just about leaves me speechless. And they made Dave Zastudil a $1.6 million-a-year punter -- although Zastudil over the past two seasons, punting in Baltimore, was 26th and 12th in punting average. I like Phil Savage and I think he's a smart football man. For the sake of some of the greatest fans in the history of any sport, I hope Savage knows what he's doing.
4. Edgerrin James might just be the luckiest man on Planet NFL.
He'll make $12.25 million in salary and bonuses for being the one hopeful sign the Cardinals imported to the desert in a year in which they are opening a new stadium. That's $790,000 per Sunday, just for toting the rock. Which brings us to ...
5. The T.O. deal is not as poisonous as most people think.
A week doesn't go by when we don't talk about him. But if LeCharles Bentley is pulling down $12.5 million this year and the Edge $12.25 million, I'd say Owens may morph into the bargain of all bargains at $10 million. Potentially, of course. I'm counting on him not being an idiot in 2006, which is probably too much to hope for. Now if we can just stitch his lips closed. Remember, too, that the Cowboys essentially signed Owens to three one-year contracts. If he's a jerk in Year 1, he won't be back in Year 2.
(Quick T.O. interlude: On a trip to Philadelphia Eagles headquarters recently, I ducked my head into the offensive team meeting room. My tour guide, an Eagles employee, pointed to a chair near the back of the room and said, "There's where T.O. slept for two years.'')
6. The Vikings got bargains in Ryan Longwell and Chester Taylor.
Longwell, an excellent bad-weather kicker for the Packers, will become one of the best three or four kickers in the league indoors -- and he'll do it for $2 million a year. I support paying kickers. They decide too many games to be a mid-July afterthought. Re: Taylor, he was a better back last season in Baltimore than Jamal Lewis, though I thought his deal was a bit pricey. He'll still cost the Vikings no more than $3.75 million in any of his four contracted season on the cap. For a good runner and unselfish blocker, it's a good deal for Minnesota.
7. The Detroit Lions finally did something smart at quarterback.
I will not predict that Jon Kitna and Josh McCown will lead the Lions anywhere except out of the locker room. But I will say this: Detroit put together smart contracts with Kitna and McCown, particularly Kitna. Over the next two years, the Lions will pay Kitna, who is better than Joey Harrington on Harrington's best day, and McCown $12.5 million combined. The Lions have spent a lot of stupid money on average players in the Millen Era. Maybe this is the start of something smart.
8. The Packers sure have a funny way of enticing Brett Favre into playing one more year.
Over the last two years, Green Bay has let starting guards Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle and center Mike Flanagan go in free agency. They could well have three low draft picks, none of whom are proven NFL commodities, starting on the line this year. That line was a jailbreak last year. How's it going to be any better in 2006, regardless of who the quarterback is?
9. Kyle Kosier might be a nice fellow, but the Cowboys are crazy to pay him $5 million.
Dallas will be his third team in five NFL seasons, and it's bizarre that the Cowboys had to pay an average-at-best guy so much to help fill their offensive-line gaps. They'd have been much better off in taking a gamble on the player Tampa Bay signed (see No. 10).
10. The winner of the smartest signing in all of free agency (after Adam Vinatieri, of course) is Tampa Bay.
In 2004, I would argue that the most physically dominating guard in pro football was Toniu Fonoti of the Chargers. He's a massive (6-foot-4 and 350 pounds) and mean drive-blocker with some personality issues. Coaches aren't always sure how much he likes the game. San Diego traded him to Minnesota last year and the Vikings let him go to free agency after the season. So Tampa Bay took a chance on him -- for a measly bonus of $25,000 to sign and a 2006 salary of $535,000. Imagine if he works out and plays to his 2004 form, which is probably a long shot. But if he craps out by the end of training camp, all the Bucs are out is $25,000. If he plays the year, they've got a great player, potentially. Those are the kinds of deals good teams make, knowing full well they could backfire. But if this one backfires, no harm, no foul.
(Peter King - SI.com) I've long been of the belief that we kill too many trees writing about the draft. It's a fun exercise, but let's be honest: Of the 255 players picked last April, how many made a major impact? I'd say 10 to 15...
(Odell Thurman, Darrent Williams, Cadillac Williams, Logan Mankins, Jammal Brown, Heath Miller, Lofa Tatupu, Leroy Hill, Shawne Merriman, Luis Castillo), and, if you want to get cute about it, maybe some combo platter of the young Cowboys (Demarcus Ware, Chris Canty, Marion Barber, Rob Petitti). Some more will turn into great players, but the thing I've always disliked about the draft is making definitive judgments about the kind of NFL players these 22-year-old guys will become.
I don't mean to get on an anti-draft riff, because it is a source of legitimate hope. But the free-agency period, for the immediacy of it, is more telling about how good a team will be right away. And with free agency having pretty much come and gone, except for damaged stars like LaVar Arrington (questions about his knee) and Charles Woodson (questions about his everything), I thought it would be a good time to draw my 10 conclusions from the Great Market of 2006. In order, they are:
1. The Adam Vinatieri signing was a superb one by Indianapolis, but the Colts suffered some major hits on defense.
Vinatieri, the best clutch kicker of this era, certainly -- and perhaps in NFL history -- got $12 million over five years. That's $2.4 million a year. That's pretty reasonable, even for a guy who hasn't made a 50-yard field goal in four years. His cap number in 2006 -- $1.68 million -- is only 1.5 percent of the Colts' salary-cap total this year. Dirt cheap for a guy who could easily make the difference in two games for the Colts this season. And as much as the signing benefits Indy, it hurts the Colts' main competitor (along with Pittsburgh) for the Super Bowl this year. New England never was aggressive in trying to re-sign Vinatieri, though the Patriots did try to get something done in the two-million-plus range. The other two kickers on the market worth decent money, Ryan Longwell and Mike Vanderjagt, got $2 million and $1.83 million, on average, from Minnesota and Dallas, respectively. It's clear Vinatieri wanted to go -- to a dome and to a new team. Last week, Vinatieri told the Boston Herald he never really was close to going back to the Patriots and he didn't give the Pats a chance to match the deal he got from Indy. I have to believe New England would have matched what the Colts offered, if given the chance ... and if only to keep him from being a great dome kicker over the next two or three years for its chief rival.
Now for the bad news: The two defensive guys the Colts really didn't want to lose, they lost -- defensive tackle Larry Tripplett (to Buffalo) and linebacker David Thornton (to Tennessee). The Bills and Titans dished out deals worth $7.26 million and $7.6 million, respectively, for the first year of their contracts. That's money the Colts just couldn't afford. Talking to coach Tony Dungy at the league meetings a couple of weeks ago, he was still down about the losses, particularly Thornton.
2. Now we know how the Redskins play Houdini with the cap every year.
I hear it every winter -- from editors, readers, people in line at Starbucks. (True story: I got asked at an Orlando Starbucks during the league meetings how the Redskins were able to sign 10 guys to gigantic contracts every year.) The answer: They don't. It's 70 percent funny money. Take the case of linebacker Andre Carter, signed to a reported seven-year, $32.5 million contract on March 15. It's more accurately a one-year, $5.85 million deal, or a two-year, $10.18 million contract, or a three-year, $13.5 million deal. See, the Redskins sign players to long deals, but the contracts are back-loaded, meaning the players would get most of the money in the final years of the contracts, if they get the money at all. And if Carter turns out to be the defensive force the Redskins hope he'll be, they'll almost certainly let him play the first two years, then re-do the deal before the fat money kicks in. Specifically, in Carter's case, he has two major slices of money he may never see: $13.4 million, combined, in five separate roster bonuses to be earned if he's on the roster in 2008, '09, '10, '11 and '12; and salaries totaling $8.9 million between 2008 and 2012. Collectively, that's $22.3 million of $32 million he may never see. Now the other question you have is this: Won't the Redskins get killed on the salary cap if they release Carter after, say, two years? The answer is not really, because the only part of his contract that's guaranteed is the signing bonus, which is $5 million.
3. It's been years since I've seen money burn a hole in a team's pocket like I saw with Cleveland this year.
Here's the stat you need to know: LeCharles Bentley and Kevin Shaffer, signed to beef up the Browns' offensive line at center and tackle, respectively, will be paid a combined $20.5 million this season in salary and bonus money. That number just about leaves me speechless. And they made Dave Zastudil a $1.6 million-a-year punter -- although Zastudil over the past two seasons, punting in Baltimore, was 26th and 12th in punting average. I like Phil Savage and I think he's a smart football man. For the sake of some of the greatest fans in the history of any sport, I hope Savage knows what he's doing.
4. Edgerrin James might just be the luckiest man on Planet NFL.
He'll make $12.25 million in salary and bonuses for being the one hopeful sign the Cardinals imported to the desert in a year in which they are opening a new stadium. That's $790,000 per Sunday, just for toting the rock. Which brings us to ...
5. The T.O. deal is not as poisonous as most people think.
A week doesn't go by when we don't talk about him. But if LeCharles Bentley is pulling down $12.5 million this year and the Edge $12.25 million, I'd say Owens may morph into the bargain of all bargains at $10 million. Potentially, of course. I'm counting on him not being an idiot in 2006, which is probably too much to hope for. Now if we can just stitch his lips closed. Remember, too, that the Cowboys essentially signed Owens to three one-year contracts. If he's a jerk in Year 1, he won't be back in Year 2.
(Quick T.O. interlude: On a trip to Philadelphia Eagles headquarters recently, I ducked my head into the offensive team meeting room. My tour guide, an Eagles employee, pointed to a chair near the back of the room and said, "There's where T.O. slept for two years.'')
6. The Vikings got bargains in Ryan Longwell and Chester Taylor.
Longwell, an excellent bad-weather kicker for the Packers, will become one of the best three or four kickers in the league indoors -- and he'll do it for $2 million a year. I support paying kickers. They decide too many games to be a mid-July afterthought. Re: Taylor, he was a better back last season in Baltimore than Jamal Lewis, though I thought his deal was a bit pricey. He'll still cost the Vikings no more than $3.75 million in any of his four contracted season on the cap. For a good runner and unselfish blocker, it's a good deal for Minnesota.
7. The Detroit Lions finally did something smart at quarterback.
I will not predict that Jon Kitna and Josh McCown will lead the Lions anywhere except out of the locker room. But I will say this: Detroit put together smart contracts with Kitna and McCown, particularly Kitna. Over the next two years, the Lions will pay Kitna, who is better than Joey Harrington on Harrington's best day, and McCown $12.5 million combined. The Lions have spent a lot of stupid money on average players in the Millen Era. Maybe this is the start of something smart.
8. The Packers sure have a funny way of enticing Brett Favre into playing one more year.
Over the last two years, Green Bay has let starting guards Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle and center Mike Flanagan go in free agency. They could well have three low draft picks, none of whom are proven NFL commodities, starting on the line this year. That line was a jailbreak last year. How's it going to be any better in 2006, regardless of who the quarterback is?
9. Kyle Kosier might be a nice fellow, but the Cowboys are crazy to pay him $5 million.
Dallas will be his third team in five NFL seasons, and it's bizarre that the Cowboys had to pay an average-at-best guy so much to help fill their offensive-line gaps. They'd have been much better off in taking a gamble on the player Tampa Bay signed (see No. 10).
10. The winner of the smartest signing in all of free agency (after Adam Vinatieri, of course) is Tampa Bay.
In 2004, I would argue that the most physically dominating guard in pro football was Toniu Fonoti of the Chargers. He's a massive (6-foot-4 and 350 pounds) and mean drive-blocker with some personality issues. Coaches aren't always sure how much he likes the game. San Diego traded him to Minnesota last year and the Vikings let him go to free agency after the season. So Tampa Bay took a chance on him -- for a measly bonus of $25,000 to sign and a 2006 salary of $535,000. Imagine if he works out and plays to his 2004 form, which is probably a long shot. But if he craps out by the end of training camp, all the Bucs are out is $25,000. If he plays the year, they've got a great player, potentially. Those are the kinds of deals good teams make, knowing full well they could backfire. But if this one backfires, no harm, no foul.