motife
04-18-2006, 04:21 PM
TUESDAY, April 18, 2006, 2:31 p.m.
Drafting linebackers
As more and more teams, more and more often, remove their middle or inside linebackers on passing downs, it has become a position that has been increasingly ignored in the draft. That's why it wouldn't come as a surprise if A.J. Hawk, generally projected as a middle or inside backer, slipped in this year's draft. The last true middle linebacker drafted in the first five was Marvin Jones, who was selected fourth by the New York Jets in 1993.
In fact, there seems to be a trend where fewer linebackers, inside or outside, are getting an early call. No linebacker has been selected in the top 10 in the past five years. And only 10 have been drafted in all in the first round over the past five years.
There was a time when it was one of the most coveted positions in the draft. After Lawrence Taylor was selected second in 1981, everybody seemed to be looking for the next Taylor: A half linebacker, half pass rusher hybrid. From '81 through 1985, another five-year stretch, 20 went in the first round and almost all were outside backers.
Lately, there have been a lot of tweeners at linebacker. Nick Barnett (29th pick in '03) was widely projected as an outside backer, but wound up inside. The same was true of Napolean Harris (23rd pick in '02) and Brian Urlacher (9th in '00). James Farrior (8th pick in '97) also moved from the outside to the inside after moving from the Jets to Pittsburgh.
Some others were projected inside, but eventually wound up outside: Robert Thomas (31st pick in '02), Takeo Spikes (13th in '98), Anthony Simmons (15th in '98), Mark Fields (13th in '95) and Quentin Coryatt (2nd in '92). Keith Brooking (12th in '98) is another who has gone back and forth between the middle and outside.
Very few classic middle linebackers have been drafted in the first round and been successful over the past 15 years. The exceptions would be Jonathan Vilma (12th in '04), Dan Morgan (11th in '01), Al Wilson (31st in '99) and Ray Lewis (26th in '96). Maybe you also could add to the list Rob Morris (28th in '00), although he lost his starting job this past season after four years; Chris Claiborne (9th in '99); and Robert Jones (24th in '92).
But clearly middle linebacker hasn't been a coveted position as of late. Maybe GMs are still haunted by the memories of Brian Bosworth, who was selected as a supplemental pick by Seattle in 1987 and touted as the next Dick Butkus; and Tom Cousineau, the first pick in the 1979 draft out of Ohio State who went to Canada, came back and played only 66 games in his brief NFL career.
Drafting tight ends
If the Packers drafted tight end Vernon Davis of Maryland with the fifth pick, it would be a highly unusual move. In the first 39 common drafts, dating to 1967 following the merger of the NFL and AFL, only one tight end has been drafted among the top five picks. And that happened 34 years ago when the Denver Broncos chose Riley Odoms at No. 5.
Tight end has been perhaps the most ignored position in the draft. In 11 of the 39 drafts, not a single tight end was taken in the first round. Only twice have as many as three been taken in Round 1. In all, only 41 tight ends have been drafted in the first round in 39 years.
In addition to Odoms, only nine others have been drafted among the top 10: Ted Kwalick (7th in 1969), Steve Zabel (6th in 1970), Charlie Young (6th in 1973), J.V. Cain (7th in 1974), Ken Mac Afee (7th in 1978), Junior Miller (7th in 1980), Kyle Brady (9th in 1995), Rickey Dudley (9th in 1996) and Kellen Winslow (6th in 2004). And you may have noticed that only three of the 10 were drafted in the past 25 years.
It's a position where even highly regarded prospects tend to slip. Jeremy Shockey was chosen, 14th; Tony Gonzales, 13th; Keith Jackson, 13th; Kellen Winslow Sr., 13th; and Russ Francis, 16th.
Why?
It takes a rare athlete to be an outstanding tight end in the NFL, someone big enough to dominate as a blocker and fast enough to be beat a defense deep. Scouts have said for years that it's the one position where the NFL probably loses most of its best prospects to basketball. Also, the rule of thumb in the NFL has been that you don't draft a tight end in the first round if he isn't going to be a playmaker, someone who can split a defense deep or make big yards after the catch. And it's a position that's lost playing time in this era of situation substitution and also a position where it's convenient to platoon. Play your blocking tight end on first down; a backup who can run better on passing downs; or simply just replace the tight end with an extra wide receiver.
So would it be worth it for the Packers to consider Davis at No. 5?
No question if he's one of the five best athletes in the draft. Teams are starting to split their tight ends more and utilizing them more in passing situations. And a big-play tight end can create opportunties for wide receivers and even open things up for the running game. Blocking isn't Davis' forte, but he doesn't have to be a steamroller. As long as the effort is there and he works on his techniques, the coaching staff should be able to develop him to the point where he's at least an adequate blocker.
Trading the top picks
If the top five teams hold on to their draft picks, it will mark only the 10th time in 40 common drafts that at least one of the top five choices didn't exchang hands. Then again, in three of the last four drafts, the top five teams held onto their picks.
The last time a top five team traded down, Chicago relinquished the fourth pick in the 2003 draft to the New York Jets for two No. 1s, choices 13 and 22, and a fourth-round selection. The Jets took defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson at No. 4 and he hasn't had the impact that was expected of him. The Bears, subsequently, swapped the 13th pick to New England for the 14th pick and a sixth-round choice. Then, they sent New England's sixth pick, and their own sixth and seventh round choices to Jacksonville for a fifth. The Bears wound up with defensive end Michael Haynes and quarterback Rex Grossman with the two extra first-round choices, defensive tackle Ian Scott with the fourth and wide receiver Justin Gage with the fifth. Not one of the Bears' four choices has had much impact either, but Scott and Gage have started and Grossman showed promise late last season. Unless Robertson becomes a dominant player, the Bears got the best of the deal by trading down.
But if you look back at all the trades involving top five picks over the past 20 years, it's really a mixed bag as to whether it's good or bad to trade up or down.
In one of the most devastating trades, the San Diego Chargers gave up the third choice in the 1998 draft, a second-round choice and another No. 1 in the 1999 draft to move up one slot to No. 2 in order to grab quarterback Ryan Leaf. But the Cardinals didn't benefit much, either. Or, at least, they didn't make out as well as they should have. They used the third choice on defensive end Andre Wadsworth, the second on defensive back Corey Chavous and the next year's No. 1, eighth overall, on wide receiver David Boston. Wadsworth was a bust. Boston had two big years for the Cardinals, but left in free agency and hasn't done much since. Chavous has been a solid player, including the first four years with the Cardinals.
Drafting linebackers
As more and more teams, more and more often, remove their middle or inside linebackers on passing downs, it has become a position that has been increasingly ignored in the draft. That's why it wouldn't come as a surprise if A.J. Hawk, generally projected as a middle or inside backer, slipped in this year's draft. The last true middle linebacker drafted in the first five was Marvin Jones, who was selected fourth by the New York Jets in 1993.
In fact, there seems to be a trend where fewer linebackers, inside or outside, are getting an early call. No linebacker has been selected in the top 10 in the past five years. And only 10 have been drafted in all in the first round over the past five years.
There was a time when it was one of the most coveted positions in the draft. After Lawrence Taylor was selected second in 1981, everybody seemed to be looking for the next Taylor: A half linebacker, half pass rusher hybrid. From '81 through 1985, another five-year stretch, 20 went in the first round and almost all were outside backers.
Lately, there have been a lot of tweeners at linebacker. Nick Barnett (29th pick in '03) was widely projected as an outside backer, but wound up inside. The same was true of Napolean Harris (23rd pick in '02) and Brian Urlacher (9th in '00). James Farrior (8th pick in '97) also moved from the outside to the inside after moving from the Jets to Pittsburgh.
Some others were projected inside, but eventually wound up outside: Robert Thomas (31st pick in '02), Takeo Spikes (13th in '98), Anthony Simmons (15th in '98), Mark Fields (13th in '95) and Quentin Coryatt (2nd in '92). Keith Brooking (12th in '98) is another who has gone back and forth between the middle and outside.
Very few classic middle linebackers have been drafted in the first round and been successful over the past 15 years. The exceptions would be Jonathan Vilma (12th in '04), Dan Morgan (11th in '01), Al Wilson (31st in '99) and Ray Lewis (26th in '96). Maybe you also could add to the list Rob Morris (28th in '00), although he lost his starting job this past season after four years; Chris Claiborne (9th in '99); and Robert Jones (24th in '92).
But clearly middle linebacker hasn't been a coveted position as of late. Maybe GMs are still haunted by the memories of Brian Bosworth, who was selected as a supplemental pick by Seattle in 1987 and touted as the next Dick Butkus; and Tom Cousineau, the first pick in the 1979 draft out of Ohio State who went to Canada, came back and played only 66 games in his brief NFL career.
Drafting tight ends
If the Packers drafted tight end Vernon Davis of Maryland with the fifth pick, it would be a highly unusual move. In the first 39 common drafts, dating to 1967 following the merger of the NFL and AFL, only one tight end has been drafted among the top five picks. And that happened 34 years ago when the Denver Broncos chose Riley Odoms at No. 5.
Tight end has been perhaps the most ignored position in the draft. In 11 of the 39 drafts, not a single tight end was taken in the first round. Only twice have as many as three been taken in Round 1. In all, only 41 tight ends have been drafted in the first round in 39 years.
In addition to Odoms, only nine others have been drafted among the top 10: Ted Kwalick (7th in 1969), Steve Zabel (6th in 1970), Charlie Young (6th in 1973), J.V. Cain (7th in 1974), Ken Mac Afee (7th in 1978), Junior Miller (7th in 1980), Kyle Brady (9th in 1995), Rickey Dudley (9th in 1996) and Kellen Winslow (6th in 2004). And you may have noticed that only three of the 10 were drafted in the past 25 years.
It's a position where even highly regarded prospects tend to slip. Jeremy Shockey was chosen, 14th; Tony Gonzales, 13th; Keith Jackson, 13th; Kellen Winslow Sr., 13th; and Russ Francis, 16th.
Why?
It takes a rare athlete to be an outstanding tight end in the NFL, someone big enough to dominate as a blocker and fast enough to be beat a defense deep. Scouts have said for years that it's the one position where the NFL probably loses most of its best prospects to basketball. Also, the rule of thumb in the NFL has been that you don't draft a tight end in the first round if he isn't going to be a playmaker, someone who can split a defense deep or make big yards after the catch. And it's a position that's lost playing time in this era of situation substitution and also a position where it's convenient to platoon. Play your blocking tight end on first down; a backup who can run better on passing downs; or simply just replace the tight end with an extra wide receiver.
So would it be worth it for the Packers to consider Davis at No. 5?
No question if he's one of the five best athletes in the draft. Teams are starting to split their tight ends more and utilizing them more in passing situations. And a big-play tight end can create opportunties for wide receivers and even open things up for the running game. Blocking isn't Davis' forte, but he doesn't have to be a steamroller. As long as the effort is there and he works on his techniques, the coaching staff should be able to develop him to the point where he's at least an adequate blocker.
Trading the top picks
If the top five teams hold on to their draft picks, it will mark only the 10th time in 40 common drafts that at least one of the top five choices didn't exchang hands. Then again, in three of the last four drafts, the top five teams held onto their picks.
The last time a top five team traded down, Chicago relinquished the fourth pick in the 2003 draft to the New York Jets for two No. 1s, choices 13 and 22, and a fourth-round selection. The Jets took defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson at No. 4 and he hasn't had the impact that was expected of him. The Bears, subsequently, swapped the 13th pick to New England for the 14th pick and a sixth-round choice. Then, they sent New England's sixth pick, and their own sixth and seventh round choices to Jacksonville for a fifth. The Bears wound up with defensive end Michael Haynes and quarterback Rex Grossman with the two extra first-round choices, defensive tackle Ian Scott with the fourth and wide receiver Justin Gage with the fifth. Not one of the Bears' four choices has had much impact either, but Scott and Gage have started and Grossman showed promise late last season. Unless Robertson becomes a dominant player, the Bears got the best of the deal by trading down.
But if you look back at all the trades involving top five picks over the past 20 years, it's really a mixed bag as to whether it's good or bad to trade up or down.
In one of the most devastating trades, the San Diego Chargers gave up the third choice in the 1998 draft, a second-round choice and another No. 1 in the 1999 draft to move up one slot to No. 2 in order to grab quarterback Ryan Leaf. But the Cardinals didn't benefit much, either. Or, at least, they didn't make out as well as they should have. They used the third choice on defensive end Andre Wadsworth, the second on defensive back Corey Chavous and the next year's No. 1, eighth overall, on wide receiver David Boston. Wadsworth was a bust. Boston had two big years for the Cardinals, but left in free agency and hasn't done much since. Chavous has been a solid player, including the first four years with the Cardinals.