motife
04-19-2006, 06:16 PM
WEDNESDAY, April 19, 2006, 10:03 a.m.
The fifth pick
If the Green Bay Packers strike gold with the fifth pick in the draft, they'll take a big step forward in their rebuilding efforts. But that fifth pick brings no guarantees.
Know who was the last defender drafted No. 5 to make it to a Pro Bowl? Cornerback Todd Lyght chosen by the Los Angeles Rams in 1991. Lyght was a good player, but didn't make the Pro Bowl until his ninth year. The last perennial all-pro defender taken in the fifth spot was linebacker Junior Seau in 1990.
Since then most of the other defenders taken with the fifth pick were complete busts or at least major disappointments: Cornerback Terrell Buckley (1992), defensive end John Copeland (1993), linebacker Trev Alberts (1994), defensive end Cedric Jones (1996), cornerback Bryant Westbrook (1997) and cornerback Quentin Jammer (2002). Westbrook might have been the best of the lot, but his career was shortened by injury. Maybe the jury is still out on Jammer, but he has been no better adequate so far.
The last two defenders taken at No. 5, cornerback Terence Newman (2003) and safety Sean Taylor (2004), have the talent to be special, but it hasn't happened yet. Newman rebounded this past season from a rough second-year. Taylor's biggest negative has been off-the-field issues.
On the flip side, last year's No. 5, running back Carnell Williams, was the primary reason the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won six more games than they did the year before. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson was the fifth pick in 2001 and rates as one of the best players in the league. The Baltimore Ravens' rode Jamal Lewis, the fifth pick in 2000, as well as their defense, to a Super Bowl victory. Ricky Williams, the fifth pick in 1999, also has been highly productive, although not entirely reliable.
So teams have done well drafting running backs in the fifth spot with one recent exception: Curtis Enis taken by the Chicago Bears in 1998.
But of all the other picks since 1990, there have been more misses than hits. The last non-running back drafted fifth to make a Pro Bowl was quarterback Kerry Collins, who was taken in 1995. Collins made one Pro Bowl, but has had a checkered career.
Walker trade rumors
With all the stories coming out of other cities about teams that might be interested in Javon Walker, here's a tip as to when you'll know if a team has serious interest: When one brings Walker in for a physical.
No team is going to trade a pick in the upcoming draft for Walker without thoroughly checking out his knee.
Thompson's stock will soar by plucking Hawk
Soon, the Green Bay Packers will be able to cash in the only chip they won during that game of Wisconsin fold-'em they played last season. Only one dividend will be paid from that hideous clunker of a 4-12 season. The Packers, for their suffering, will be soothed by the No. 5 pick in the National Football League draft.
This is the reward given to a once-proud team for finishing among the bottom-feeders in the NFL. For years, the Packers never really benefited from this league-wide policy, set in place long ago with the salary cap as tools to help ensure fair competition and parity for all.
So now, the Packers have a chance to make the system work for them. With the No. 5 pick, general manager Ted Thompson is on the clock to make this choice tick for the Packers on April 29. Green Bay has a chance to add an instant starter, a player who can make an impact-statement in his rookie season.
The Packers have been here before. In 1992, Ron Wolf's first year as Green Bay's GM, he used the Packers' No. 1 pick - No. 5 overall - to draft Terrell Buckley, a smallish cornerback from Florida State. By the standards of a No.-5 pick, Buckley was a bust, struggling through three undistinguished seasons with the Packers. But by the standards of survival in this brutal business, Buckley was a success. T-Buck never became a star, but he has drawn a paycheck in the NFL for 14 seasons and is hoping to make it 15.
Thompson, a general manager with a 4-12 record and a growing image problem among the restless in Packer Nation, cannot afford to miss with this pick.
The draft is Thompson's baby, the vehicle he has often touted as the No. 1 way in which to build a football team. But his glowing opportunity at No. 5 is overmatched by Green Bay's many gnawing needs. This team is not just one blue-chip draft choice away from the Super Bowl. Almost everywhere you look on this roster, you will find trouble.
Thompson has been singing that "best-player-available" song. That means, of course, that regardless of position or need the Packers will use that No. 5 pick on the remaining player rated the highest on the board in Green Bay's war room.
If the draft follows form and forecast, here's what to expect from the first five picks:
1. Houston will grab, Reggie Bush, the sensational running back and Heisman Trophy winner from Southern California.
2. New Orleans, no longer in need of quarterback after signing Drew Brees, will take Mario Williams of North Carolina State, the premier defensive end in the draft.
3. Tennessee will select USC quarterback Matt Leinart, partially because of a pressing need, but mostly because he is just too good to pass up.
4. The New York Jets, with needs everywhere, will select Virginia offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who is so good that the folks in Canton have already begun carving his Hall of Fame bust.
5. And then comes Thompson and the Packers, who could and should take linebacker A.J. Hawk of Ohio State. Right now, the weakness of Green Bay's improving defense is at linebacker. The selection of Hawk could turn it into a strength.
But don't expect the draft to follow the script. The Jets would love to have Ferguson, but their most glaring need is at quarterback. Leinart would fit in perfectly and become the toast of New York. New Orleans just might trade its No. 2 pick to the Jets, who would draft Leinart. That would probably leave the Saints with an extra draft choice in an early round and in the enviable position of getting either Williams or Ferguson.
All of that would still leave Hawk available to Green Bay at No. 5. His selection by the Packers makes good, solid sense. Unless, of course, Thompson has another idea.
If Ferguson should somehow fall to the Packers at No. 5, he would be hard for Thompson to pass up. Ferguson has a big future as a left tackle in the NFL, but if the Packers draft him it would give them several options to cure their ailing interior line.
Green Bay could leave Chad Clifton at left tackle and Ferguson could be an immediate starter at either guard position. Or, the Packers could play Ferguson at right tackle, move Mark Tauscher to guard and give Kevin Barry his long-awaited chance to start as the other guard. With Scott Wells replacing Mike Flanagan at center, the Packers' offensive line would start 2006 in much better shape than it did 2005.
And drafting D'Brickashaw would allow the Packers to replace the apostrophe they lost when they released Na'il Diggs.
But Thompson might have other ideas. It is possible - and frightening - that Green Bay's general manager might have a quarterback rated as the highest player left on the board when the Packers pick at No. 5.
Thompson might be tempted by Vince Young, the super athlete who quarterbacked Texas to the national championship.
Then there is Jay Cutler of Vanderbilt, who some see as the second coming of Brett Favre. Cutler is brass and brilliant; a gambling gunslinger. He throws off his back foot and plays with a cocky swagger that he backs up with a monster throwing arm. And as we have seen from Mr. Favre, that style works.
But there are at least two reasons why taking a quarterback with their top pick would be a misguided move for Thompson and the Packers.
First, drafting a quarterback would be received by Favre as a most public slap in the face. It would push No. 4 out of Green Bay and into retirement.
And second, Thompson's waning image and credibility would take an enormous public relations hit. Drafting a quarterback No. 1 in 2006 would be like a confession from Thompson that he made a mistake in the 2005 draft when he took Aaron Rodgers with his top pick.
But you could also admire Thompson for admitting his mistake, especially if drafting Young or Cutler would correct the error and solidify the team's long-range future at quarterback.
If Thompson does stray from the logical, safe and predictable path of taking A.J. Hawk with his top choice, the best place to shop might be at tight end, not quarterback.
And if Favre is waiting for the Packers to give him a good reason to return, tight end Vernon Davis of Maryland could be what he wants. In fact, Davis could give Favre a reason to play at least two more seasons. This is not just your garden variety tight end. This is a go-to receiver who runs the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds and has a 42-inch vertical leap.
Some see Davis having an even greater impact in the NFL than Antonio Gates of San Diego or Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez.
But Thompson and the Packers dropped a bundle last season to re-sign Bubba Franks, so the tight end position is viewed as one of strength, not in need of repair.
In any event, Thompson and the Packers seem to be in a win-win situation with their No. 1 pick. A.J. Hawk, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Vernon Davis. All great players with huge potential.
There is no way Green Bay can make a mistake with this No. 5 draft choice.
Just ask Ron Wolf and Terrell Buckley.
Eagles an unlikely trade partner for Walker?
History says that the Eagles won’t trade an appealing draft pick – say, a first-round pick – for unhappy Packers wide receiver Javon Walker, according to Rich Hofmann in a column at Philly.com.
Hofmann makes a case that the Eagles haven’t been willing to part with a significant draft choice in a trade since head coach Andy Reid joined the team in 1999.
Hofmann does concede that the Eagles under Reid have exchanged a draft pick for a player, noting, for example, the addition of Terrell Owens in 2004. But those deals have been rare, says Hofmann, which is why Philadelphia fans (and Packer fans) shouldn’t expect anything less this year.
“If they really do have an interest in Walker, as has been sporadically reported, it will take a trade to get him, and the trade almost certainly would require a draft choice - and not an insignificant draft choice, even when you factor in the knee thing,†writes Hofmann.
“And that's the point, about the Eagles and their philosophy. History says they aren't going to do it.
“The Eagles have never traded away a really significant draft choice to get a player since Reid has been in charge.â€ÂÂ
Attner sizes up Arrington
In his blog at SportingNews.com, Paul Attner tells readers why NFL general managers aren’t lining up to sign free agent linebacker LaVar Arrington.
Attner says Arrington is a solid citizen who “left Washington as the most beloved player by far on last year's team, a status he earned in large part because of his visibility in the community.â€ÂÂ
But respect and admiration never tackled a running back.
The problem for Arrington, according to Attner, is that his asking price is too high for teams that have concerns about his discord with past coaches as well as his reputation as a freelancer.
The Packers recently visited with Arrington in Green Bay.
Says Attner: “Teams don't want to overpay for a linebacker who was benched last year and had philosophical differences not only with Redskin defensive guru Gregg Williams but also with former coordinators Marvin Lewis and Mike Nolan. Clubs wonder if he couldn't do it completely right for those three, why should he be different for them?
“The knock on Arrington is that he freelances too much, trying to make the big play instead of sticking with his assignment within a team concept. It's what got him on Williams' bad side and it is what annoyed his previous coaches.â€ÂÂ
The bottom line, adds Attner, is that Arrington needs to prove he can be a team player and will likely have to settle for less money than his own perceived value.
The fifth pick
If the Green Bay Packers strike gold with the fifth pick in the draft, they'll take a big step forward in their rebuilding efforts. But that fifth pick brings no guarantees.
Know who was the last defender drafted No. 5 to make it to a Pro Bowl? Cornerback Todd Lyght chosen by the Los Angeles Rams in 1991. Lyght was a good player, but didn't make the Pro Bowl until his ninth year. The last perennial all-pro defender taken in the fifth spot was linebacker Junior Seau in 1990.
Since then most of the other defenders taken with the fifth pick were complete busts or at least major disappointments: Cornerback Terrell Buckley (1992), defensive end John Copeland (1993), linebacker Trev Alberts (1994), defensive end Cedric Jones (1996), cornerback Bryant Westbrook (1997) and cornerback Quentin Jammer (2002). Westbrook might have been the best of the lot, but his career was shortened by injury. Maybe the jury is still out on Jammer, but he has been no better adequate so far.
The last two defenders taken at No. 5, cornerback Terence Newman (2003) and safety Sean Taylor (2004), have the talent to be special, but it hasn't happened yet. Newman rebounded this past season from a rough second-year. Taylor's biggest negative has been off-the-field issues.
On the flip side, last year's No. 5, running back Carnell Williams, was the primary reason the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won six more games than they did the year before. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson was the fifth pick in 2001 and rates as one of the best players in the league. The Baltimore Ravens' rode Jamal Lewis, the fifth pick in 2000, as well as their defense, to a Super Bowl victory. Ricky Williams, the fifth pick in 1999, also has been highly productive, although not entirely reliable.
So teams have done well drafting running backs in the fifth spot with one recent exception: Curtis Enis taken by the Chicago Bears in 1998.
But of all the other picks since 1990, there have been more misses than hits. The last non-running back drafted fifth to make a Pro Bowl was quarterback Kerry Collins, who was taken in 1995. Collins made one Pro Bowl, but has had a checkered career.
Walker trade rumors
With all the stories coming out of other cities about teams that might be interested in Javon Walker, here's a tip as to when you'll know if a team has serious interest: When one brings Walker in for a physical.
No team is going to trade a pick in the upcoming draft for Walker without thoroughly checking out his knee.
Thompson's stock will soar by plucking Hawk
Soon, the Green Bay Packers will be able to cash in the only chip they won during that game of Wisconsin fold-'em they played last season. Only one dividend will be paid from that hideous clunker of a 4-12 season. The Packers, for their suffering, will be soothed by the No. 5 pick in the National Football League draft.
This is the reward given to a once-proud team for finishing among the bottom-feeders in the NFL. For years, the Packers never really benefited from this league-wide policy, set in place long ago with the salary cap as tools to help ensure fair competition and parity for all.
So now, the Packers have a chance to make the system work for them. With the No. 5 pick, general manager Ted Thompson is on the clock to make this choice tick for the Packers on April 29. Green Bay has a chance to add an instant starter, a player who can make an impact-statement in his rookie season.
The Packers have been here before. In 1992, Ron Wolf's first year as Green Bay's GM, he used the Packers' No. 1 pick - No. 5 overall - to draft Terrell Buckley, a smallish cornerback from Florida State. By the standards of a No.-5 pick, Buckley was a bust, struggling through three undistinguished seasons with the Packers. But by the standards of survival in this brutal business, Buckley was a success. T-Buck never became a star, but he has drawn a paycheck in the NFL for 14 seasons and is hoping to make it 15.
Thompson, a general manager with a 4-12 record and a growing image problem among the restless in Packer Nation, cannot afford to miss with this pick.
The draft is Thompson's baby, the vehicle he has often touted as the No. 1 way in which to build a football team. But his glowing opportunity at No. 5 is overmatched by Green Bay's many gnawing needs. This team is not just one blue-chip draft choice away from the Super Bowl. Almost everywhere you look on this roster, you will find trouble.
Thompson has been singing that "best-player-available" song. That means, of course, that regardless of position or need the Packers will use that No. 5 pick on the remaining player rated the highest on the board in Green Bay's war room.
If the draft follows form and forecast, here's what to expect from the first five picks:
1. Houston will grab, Reggie Bush, the sensational running back and Heisman Trophy winner from Southern California.
2. New Orleans, no longer in need of quarterback after signing Drew Brees, will take Mario Williams of North Carolina State, the premier defensive end in the draft.
3. Tennessee will select USC quarterback Matt Leinart, partially because of a pressing need, but mostly because he is just too good to pass up.
4. The New York Jets, with needs everywhere, will select Virginia offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who is so good that the folks in Canton have already begun carving his Hall of Fame bust.
5. And then comes Thompson and the Packers, who could and should take linebacker A.J. Hawk of Ohio State. Right now, the weakness of Green Bay's improving defense is at linebacker. The selection of Hawk could turn it into a strength.
But don't expect the draft to follow the script. The Jets would love to have Ferguson, but their most glaring need is at quarterback. Leinart would fit in perfectly and become the toast of New York. New Orleans just might trade its No. 2 pick to the Jets, who would draft Leinart. That would probably leave the Saints with an extra draft choice in an early round and in the enviable position of getting either Williams or Ferguson.
All of that would still leave Hawk available to Green Bay at No. 5. His selection by the Packers makes good, solid sense. Unless, of course, Thompson has another idea.
If Ferguson should somehow fall to the Packers at No. 5, he would be hard for Thompson to pass up. Ferguson has a big future as a left tackle in the NFL, but if the Packers draft him it would give them several options to cure their ailing interior line.
Green Bay could leave Chad Clifton at left tackle and Ferguson could be an immediate starter at either guard position. Or, the Packers could play Ferguson at right tackle, move Mark Tauscher to guard and give Kevin Barry his long-awaited chance to start as the other guard. With Scott Wells replacing Mike Flanagan at center, the Packers' offensive line would start 2006 in much better shape than it did 2005.
And drafting D'Brickashaw would allow the Packers to replace the apostrophe they lost when they released Na'il Diggs.
But Thompson might have other ideas. It is possible - and frightening - that Green Bay's general manager might have a quarterback rated as the highest player left on the board when the Packers pick at No. 5.
Thompson might be tempted by Vince Young, the super athlete who quarterbacked Texas to the national championship.
Then there is Jay Cutler of Vanderbilt, who some see as the second coming of Brett Favre. Cutler is brass and brilliant; a gambling gunslinger. He throws off his back foot and plays with a cocky swagger that he backs up with a monster throwing arm. And as we have seen from Mr. Favre, that style works.
But there are at least two reasons why taking a quarterback with their top pick would be a misguided move for Thompson and the Packers.
First, drafting a quarterback would be received by Favre as a most public slap in the face. It would push No. 4 out of Green Bay and into retirement.
And second, Thompson's waning image and credibility would take an enormous public relations hit. Drafting a quarterback No. 1 in 2006 would be like a confession from Thompson that he made a mistake in the 2005 draft when he took Aaron Rodgers with his top pick.
But you could also admire Thompson for admitting his mistake, especially if drafting Young or Cutler would correct the error and solidify the team's long-range future at quarterback.
If Thompson does stray from the logical, safe and predictable path of taking A.J. Hawk with his top choice, the best place to shop might be at tight end, not quarterback.
And if Favre is waiting for the Packers to give him a good reason to return, tight end Vernon Davis of Maryland could be what he wants. In fact, Davis could give Favre a reason to play at least two more seasons. This is not just your garden variety tight end. This is a go-to receiver who runs the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds and has a 42-inch vertical leap.
Some see Davis having an even greater impact in the NFL than Antonio Gates of San Diego or Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez.
But Thompson and the Packers dropped a bundle last season to re-sign Bubba Franks, so the tight end position is viewed as one of strength, not in need of repair.
In any event, Thompson and the Packers seem to be in a win-win situation with their No. 1 pick. A.J. Hawk, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Vernon Davis. All great players with huge potential.
There is no way Green Bay can make a mistake with this No. 5 draft choice.
Just ask Ron Wolf and Terrell Buckley.
Eagles an unlikely trade partner for Walker?
History says that the Eagles won’t trade an appealing draft pick – say, a first-round pick – for unhappy Packers wide receiver Javon Walker, according to Rich Hofmann in a column at Philly.com.
Hofmann makes a case that the Eagles haven’t been willing to part with a significant draft choice in a trade since head coach Andy Reid joined the team in 1999.
Hofmann does concede that the Eagles under Reid have exchanged a draft pick for a player, noting, for example, the addition of Terrell Owens in 2004. But those deals have been rare, says Hofmann, which is why Philadelphia fans (and Packer fans) shouldn’t expect anything less this year.
“If they really do have an interest in Walker, as has been sporadically reported, it will take a trade to get him, and the trade almost certainly would require a draft choice - and not an insignificant draft choice, even when you factor in the knee thing,†writes Hofmann.
“And that's the point, about the Eagles and their philosophy. History says they aren't going to do it.
“The Eagles have never traded away a really significant draft choice to get a player since Reid has been in charge.â€ÂÂ
Attner sizes up Arrington
In his blog at SportingNews.com, Paul Attner tells readers why NFL general managers aren’t lining up to sign free agent linebacker LaVar Arrington.
Attner says Arrington is a solid citizen who “left Washington as the most beloved player by far on last year's team, a status he earned in large part because of his visibility in the community.â€ÂÂ
But respect and admiration never tackled a running back.
The problem for Arrington, according to Attner, is that his asking price is too high for teams that have concerns about his discord with past coaches as well as his reputation as a freelancer.
The Packers recently visited with Arrington in Green Bay.
Says Attner: “Teams don't want to overpay for a linebacker who was benched last year and had philosophical differences not only with Redskin defensive guru Gregg Williams but also with former coordinators Marvin Lewis and Mike Nolan. Clubs wonder if he couldn't do it completely right for those three, why should he be different for them?
“The knock on Arrington is that he freelances too much, trying to make the big play instead of sticking with his assignment within a team concept. It's what got him on Williams' bad side and it is what annoyed his previous coaches.â€ÂÂ
The bottom line, adds Attner, is that Arrington needs to prove he can be a team player and will likely have to settle for less money than his own perceived value.