PFW : Draft comments (voluminous)

[motife]

Q: Hey, I am a huge Ohio State fan and saw you had Bobby Carpenter and Santonio Holmes as having character concerns (draft value depth chart, April 18) associated with them. In their four years at OSU, I have never heard of either being in any off-the-field issues and both of these kids were team leaders. What is up with this?

— R. Banks

A: The concerns might not be as grave as others. There is not a detailed arrest history, and both players were pivotal to the Buckeyes’ success. That said, if anyone digs into Holmes’ background deeply enough — and I just got off the phone with an NFL team that might pick Holmes that didn’t even have all the character info I do — he will find there are some inconsistencies and concerns in the background of both players. Some of them, you could find on your own. In an AP story published May 6, 2004, outlining the timeline of troubles since Jim Tressel arrived, the following was included:

“Nov. 16, 2003 — At 3 a.m. after a win over Purdue and six days before the Michigan game, wide receiver Santonio Holmes and quarterback Troy Smith are charged with misdemeanor disorderly conduct after a fight in a parking lot on campus. A window in a car is kicked out and one woman reported her jaw was broken. Holmes is held out of the starting lineup at Michigan but returns to play most of the game. Holmes also started in the Buckeyes' Fiesta Bowl game. He pleads innocent to the disorderly conduct after the team returns to Columbus. The disorderly conduct charge is dismissed against Holmes on March 30, 2004. Smith is found guilty of the charge.”

Where there is smoke, there is often fire, and the character questions run considerably deeper. I have no way of verifying what I have been told, and believe to be true, by some very trusted sources. It would not be appropriate to detail all I know about Holmes, but let me just say that any team that does its due diligence on Holmes will have concerns.

Carpenter’s concerns stem from his personality, inability to get along with teammates and his inability to lead. For a player being projected by many teams to an ILB position that requires leadership capability, that is a concern. He is smart, will work hard and play hard on game day, but there are many elements to a player’s character, and teams have called him a “loose cannon” and “know-it-all” and made note of how difficult he was to deal with on his pro day, when he refused to take off his sweats to be weighed and forced teams to move the drills a number of times. Scouts who like Carpenter say no player at that pro day who was also at the Combine wanted to be weighed and that it is normal for players to request to move a drill due to slippery conditions.

I don’t think the concerns are serious enough that they will affect Carpenter’s stock drastically or even keep him out of the first round, nor do I expect Holmes to slip much, given the lack of quality in this year’s receiver class. But where a player is drafted and what type of pro he turns out to be are separate issues. If the character element was better on the part of both players, I think they would turn out to be much better pros. As it is, neither is viewed as a “safe pick” by many teams. In contrast, A.J. Hawk has all the intangibles and will likely be drafted in the top five, higher than where very similar players like Keith Brooking (12th, 1998) and Dan Morgan (11th, 2001) were drafted, because teams know exactly what they are getting and because he is arguably the safest “canâ⠂¬â„¢t miss” pick in the draft.

Q: Offensive linemen are usually hit-or-miss, no matter what round they are picked. Does that give Tampa Bay incentive to draft a different position in the first round, maybe a WR like Sinorice Moss?

— Paul

A: You might be surprised to know that the two positions that have the highest bust rate in the first round over the last decade, each hovering near 50 percent, are quarterback and receiver. There is a very sharp learning curve for both positions, and it usually takes until Year Three before most throwers or catchers reach their potential.

When you break down the league even further, you will find that only a very select number of left tackles in the league have not been drafted in the first round because teams tend to lock them up early and rarely let them escape to free agency. If you can find a premium pass protector, you do not let him go. If you want a premium pass protector, you either draft one in the first round or you grossly overpay in the free-agent market, as the Browns did with former Falcons OLT Kevin Shaeffer. With not many teams wanting to pay Mercedes money for a Chevy, the draft is the ideal place to find one.

For that reason, I think Miami’s (Fla.) Eric Winston and Auburn’s Marcus McNeill might have a better chance of sneaking into the back end of the first round than their play would warrant. With Winston playing in the Bucs’ own backyard and the team having a history of selecting local talent, I think he is a good fit for the Buccaneers.

Q: Matt Leinart was widely regarded as the top pick a year ago? Why do you suddenly think he will fall so far?

A: It is not sudden. The evaluation process begins on next year’s prospects immediately after the draft, and in the case of Leinart, I have been aware of him and watched him play much longer because of his high profile and success. If you go back to PFW’s Nov. 14, 2005, issue, you can find a headline that reads, “Is Matt Leinart overrated?” and a detailed description in our position-by-position pro prospects series stating that there are a lot of questions coming from NFL evaluators about Leinart’s ability.

The media hype surrounding Leinart has been off the charts, as it usually is for most Heisman winners. The reality, when you really study him and try to figure out what he is and what he could be, is that he is a very cerebral, rhythm pocket passer with great accuracy when he has time to throw. The problem is that he will not have the time to throw in the NFL that he had in college unless he enters a situation like Ben Roethlisberger luckily landed in and goes to a good team. Falling in this draft is the best thing that could happen to Leinart. He needs to put his ego aside, not worry about his pocketbook and hope he lands with a good team.

Bottom line, in the view of many teams, is that he is an injury waiting to happen. If he does not have a strong offensive line and a good running game, he could be a very average NFL quarterback. He needs the right situation to be successful. Vince Young and Jay Cutler have much more upside.

[motife]

Vikings ready to catch a falling star

By Jeff Reynolds
April 19, 2006


What would be bad news to Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler on Draft Day couldn’t be better news for Brad Childress and the Vikings.

Leinart and Cutler, considered two of the top three quarterbacks in the draft, along with Vince Young, aren’t sure where they fit in the draft at this point and could conceivably fall in Round One on April 29. The Vikings, who pick in the middle of the first round, have made the QB position a top priority.

We’re told the Vikings are ready to provide a landing spot, especially if it is Cutler who slides on Draft Day. And they might not wait for the player of their choice to tumble.

One team with whom PFW spoke said the Vikings had inquired about packaging their own first-round pick, No. 17 overall, and two later picks to move up “six, seven, maybe eight spots if that’s what it takes.”

Another source who knows Childress’ thought process well said Childress had a well-laid plan when he dealt Daunte Culpepper for a second-round pick. The idea was to trade the Vikings’ quarterback of the present in order to get a quarterback of the future.

There are those in the league with doubts about Childress’ ability to deftly analyze and evaluate quarterbacks. According to a source, he was not high on Falcons QB Matt Schaub when Schaub left Virginia. If that is indeed the case, it would seem to greatly undermine the validity of the reports that the Vikings were considering parting with their top pick to acquire Schaub. Plus, Minnesota believes the Falcons have overvalued Schaub in order to get maximum value in the event of a trade. It would be difficult to fathom Minnesota dealing Culpepper for a second-round pick and giving up a No. 1 for Schaub.

Leinart is considered a West Coast-type quarterback because of his touch and accuracy, but the Vikings don’t covet the USC cover boy.

However, the Vikings are in agreement in their opinion of Cutler. The uncertainty lies in figuring out just how much they need to give up to get where they need to go — perhaps as high as the seventh pick, depending on how the top of the draft shakes out.

We’re told Childress is enamored with leadership more than any other characteristic at quarterback and that he compares Cutler’s leadership traits to Tom Brady’s. Cutler has similar toughness and bravado. Like Brady, he can lift with the linemen (23 reps of 225 pounds) and sits at the front of the class. Intangibles and how Cutler will handle NFL pressure are considered the variables in his evaluation

[motife]

Rumblings came out of Texans headquarters last week that the coaches were really beginning to focus on the player evaluation process after the Broncos' extended postseason and new head coach Gary Kubiak's concentration on assembling a staff had delayed the process. The way we hear it, now that the staff has had more time to evaluate the elite talent in this draft, there is some division on the subject of which player the team values the most — with the owner still favoring Reggie Bush and the coaches being enthralled with Mario Williams.

More intrigue has engulfed the Texans' selection in the last 24 hours as word came into PFW that multiple trade partners could potentially be lining up to nab Bush with the Texans' top spot.

The Texans' interest in trading down still seems to be much greater than others' interest in moving up, but the latest news is that as many as three candidates exist to move up to the top spot. The New York Jets would appear to have the most ammunition (with 10 picks, including three in the top 35) and interest, with owner Woody Johnson flying to Los Angeles as part of a contingent of Jets executives, including GM Mike Tannenbaum, head coach Eric Mangini and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, to meet with not only Matt Leinart but Bush too.

Other potential trade partners include the Raiders, where Al Davis is said to be enamored with the local standout runner, as well as Tennessee, which previously met with Bush after the Trojans' pro-day workout. Of the three potential suitors, the Titans could become the most competitive immediately with the addition of Bush. Our sources, however, still say the Titans are locked on selecting a quarterback. As it pertains to the Raiders, our sources pointed to Davis' last-minute effort to trade up for Eli Manning in the 2004 draft. If the Raiders could not muster enough value to move from No. 2 to No. 1 in '04, how could they go from No. 7 to No. 1 this year without mortgaging the future? Maybe Davis is willing to do so, given his worsening health, but our sources think the Raiders are convinced they will be able to land an impact player at their current slot. And the presence of RB LaMont Jordan on their roster means that running back isn't a priority need for the Raiders.

With less than two weeks remaining before the draft, there is much anticipation and mounting urgency about beginning contract talks for the first overall pick. The Texans, however, have yet to begin negotiations with any player, instead exploring trade opportunities. Team sources said the Texans were turned off by the "cocky demeanor" with which the Bush camp approached its meeting with the club and began exploring initial discussions with Williams not long after that meeting.

While the Texans' late interest in Williams would appear to be just a smokescreen to gain leverage in their dealings with Bush, at least nine general managers and college scouting directors with whom PFW has spoken in the last week said the freakishly athletic Williams was their top-graded talent in this draft. An independent analyst can never be certain he is receiving the truth from teams in April, but it is important to acknowledge that four of these teams admitted they do not have a legitimate chance to draft Williams and a number come from consistently winning progams.

Although it defies popular convention, with even a monkey able to see Bush's impressive talent, a strong case could be made for the Texans' selecting Williams. The logic in the building, as we were told by those with influence in the decision, is that Williams could play 60 downs a game, whereas Bush will only contribute on 25-30.

We also hear that the Texans are nervous about paying the RB position such a premium. The Dolphins were teetering on their decision to draft Ronnie Brown for the same reason a year ago before ultimately biting the bullet and settling on him with the second overall pick. The value of the contract simply outweighs the position and would essentially make Bush the highest-paid runner in the league.

The franchise value for a running back (calculated by averaging the salary of the top five players at the position) is $6.1 million. There are five other positions (QB, DE, LB, OL, WR) with higher franchise values associated with the position, with quarterback ($8.8 million) and defensive end ($8.3 million) being the highest-paid on each side of the ball.

Had the Texans taken a defensive end instead of a quarterback in 2002 when they were building their initial roster, there is no telling where they might be now. The Texans still firmly stand behind their decision to draft "a franchise quarterback," but David Carr has struggled behind an injury-plagued offensive line and not yet shown he is anything more than an average quarterback. Meanwhile, Julius Peppers, taken with the second overall pick, has played his way to the Pro Bowl and helped bring the Panthers to one Super Bowl and within a game of another in two of the last four years.

It is not fair to compare their pro success at this point with completely different circumstances surrounding each, with Carr not having time to throw or a lot of talent around him and Peppers playing on one of the best defensive lines in football. Nonetheless, taking a player with the potential to be a franchise quarterback is night and day from drafting a player who has the potential to be a franchise running back. A lot of great running backs have been drafted outside the first round, including Clinton Portis (2), Tiki Barber (2), Curtis Martin (3) and even the Texans' own three-time 1,000-yard rusher, Domanick Davis (4), whom they found on the second day of the draft.

Adding to the intrigue is a growing school of thought in league circles that it was Reggie White — not Brett Favre — who ultimately pushed the Packers over the hump and Bruce Smith, drafted first overall in 1985 — not Jim Kelly — who was most instrumental to the Bills' four Super Bowl trips.

The premium positions most difficult to fill on offense are quarterback and offensive tackle. On defense, they are defensive end and cornerback. If a team needs help in one of those areas, they most often have to draft them in the first round and develop them because they are simply too difficult to find in free agency, with teams tending to lock up their own early.

A great quarterback like Peyton Manning has shown that he can be average when he is attacked by heavy pressure. A great pass rusher can make a quarterback look bad and his cornerbacks look great, but a great cornerback can appear very average without pressure.

The key to winning games in the National Football League begins in the trenches. Great offensive and defensive lines win football games. Just look at last year's Super Bowl to understand this fundamental truth.

Seattle, possessing one of the league's most potent offenses, with an MVP runner (Shaun Alexander) and three Pro Bowl players (Walter Jones, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Hasselbeck) at key positions, could not move the ball effectively against the Steelers. Defense won the game. Bill Belichick and Bill Cowher are defensive-minded coaches. Together they have won the Super Bowl the last four years with a very pressure-intensive, attacking style of defense.

The Patriots, considered the closest thing to a dynasty in the 21st century, have won three Super Bowls in five years with a stifling defense and have invested most of their high picks in defensive linemen while electing to have good running backs (Antowain Smith, Corey Dillon), not great ones. They recently awarded one of the most lucrative contracts to a defensive player (Richard Seymour) whom Belichick and GM Scott Pioli initially decided to make the cornerstone of their franchise when they first took the job — as former Patriots assistant Mangini now prepares to do in New York.

The Buccaneers won a Lombardi Trophy in 2002, not because Jon Gruden was lighting up the scoreboard but because Monte Kiffin's defense found a way to pressure Rich Gannon. The Ravens beat the Giants, not with their offense, but with their defense. Brian Billick, known for his offensive prowess, won his only Super Bowl with a dominating defense.

Even arguably the best team in football last year, the Indianapolis Colts — with a wide array of offensive superstars, and a club that was on a quest for the first undefeated season since the 1974 Miami Dolphins — elected to re-sign every significant superstar with the exception of Edgerrin James — their four-time Pro Bowl running back. As the logic goes, "Great running backs get you to the Pro Bowl. Great pass rushers win Super Bowls."

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the game of football is about pressure — both creating and avoiding it. There are two players in this draft who can best help a team in those areas — Williams and Virginia's D'Brickashaw Ferguson. At least one team with which PFW spoke had those two players graded as the top two players in this draft. Generally speaking, from many discussions with evaluators, Ferguson is very good, but he does not possess the capability at his position that Williams does at his.

"Ferguson will be a good pro," said one general manager. "I'm not convinced he will be an elite tackle. His balance and reach are exceptional. But he is more high-hipped than I like them to be cut."

"Williams is the best player in the draft," the source opined. "I've been looking at players for nearly 30 years, and I have never quite seen one like him. You have to remember how young he is. His natural playing weight will be close to 320 pounds. Guys that size were not meant to move the way he could."

With questions still persisting about how many times Bush will be able to carry the ball and how much different he is from Domanick Davis and some of the other change-of-pace backs who have played in the league, such as Eric Metcalf, it would not surprise us in the least if the Texans were to stay at the No. 1 spot and draft Williams. The media campaign has definitely favored the Heisman Trophy winners from USC, but come Draft Day, it is still possible that the Texans do what is best for their football team.

Philadelphia fans booed Donovan McNabb in 1999 when the Eagles bypassed Ricky Williams — the Heisman Trophy-winning, NCAA-record-breaking pit bull from the University of Texas. Fans cheered and applauded, and excitement filled the air in New Orleans as the Saints gave up their entire draft for the Heisman Trophy winner. Three years later, the Eagles were fighting for a divisional championship, and the Saints were undergoing a complete organizational overhaul.

With many Houston natives clamoring for "the President" to make his home in Texas, the Texans could be confronted with the same issue. But public sentiment is not what any good evaluator concerns himself with. It was stated decades ago — "Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championships." The Texans need to make the best decision for their football team, and many decision makers in the National Football League would be surprised if they did not take Williams.

[motife]

Scouts have been on the trails for nine months, but in the month preceding the draft, many evaluators who will be pulling the trigger on Draft Day are finally getting the opportunity to really dissect players and study their favorites as teams put their final grades on players and stack their draft board for the last time before the big day.

Through our everyday dealings with teams, PFW offers the opinions and thoughts of those who matter, which are being conveyed in the final weeks leading up to the draft. Keep in mind, a lot of smoke flies in April as teams try to conceal their intentions, and this is the time of the year that many scouts change their opinions when they are dealing with even their closest peers and, no doubt, media.

PFW does not necessarily agree with all of the statements made by evaluators below, but it nonetheless offers some of what is being said in draft meetings around the league. Whether these opinions are sincere or not, they are still NFL opinions and carry many truths:

“(Penn State CB Alan) Zemaitis reminds me of (2005 Colts first-rounder) Marlin Jackson. He’s very instinctive.”

“(Maryland TE) Vernon Davis is not dumb when you are talking to him — he just does not have a good base of football knowledge or really understand how to convert routes. … There’s a big difference between scouting and looking at numbers (production, height, weight and speed). Davis may have better numbers than (Jeremy) Shockey and (Kellen) Winslow (Jr.), but he is not nearly as refined of a pass catcher as either were coming out. Go back and watch Davis and show me one catch he makes where he does not have to stop to bring in the ball. No one can deny his physical ability, but he’s got a lot of work cut out for him.”

“I know there are some scouts who have first-round grades on (Fresno State CB) Richard Marshall, but I don’t know what they are looking at. He’s stiff. He will play, but I don’t ever see him being more than just a guy in the league. I have him graded in the third round.”

“I watched four games of (Maryland LB) D’Qwell Jackson yesterday. I love his football temperament, instincts and the way he plays the game, but I do not like his foot speed. This is not the 1980s anymore. He is a liability vs. the pass.”

“(Purdue SS) Bernard Pollard is very active. He has good instincts. He plays fast, has good man cover skills. He can mirror a quarterback and break on throws. He is a playmaker. He’s a second-round talent.”

“(Florida State FS) Pat Watkins shows some situational toughness, but he is so long and gangly. That concerns me.”

“I went back and watched more of (Florida State DT) Brodrick Bunkley. He is a mean sucker. Wow! You put on the North Carolina tape, and he is a man. I haven’t seen anyone kick the (crap) out of his opponents like he does in a long time.”

“(Ohio State S) Donte Whitner is the last guy moving. His angles are bad. He can cover on the short end but not on the top end. He’s (Patriots 2005 fourth-round pick) James Sanders. He has no instincts. He is aggressive, tough, can close to the ball. He’ll hit you and support the run, but I didn’t like his key and diagnose. He’s not a half safety. You need some special goggles to evaluate if you think he’s a half safety. He’s choppy in his movement. He can run and he’s fearless, but he’s not Bob Sanders moving at the snap. And little safeties wear down.”

“I can’t cosign on drafting (Syracuse S) Anthony Smith because he’s only 194 pounds. (Bengals 2004 second-rounder) Madieu Williams wore down at 190 pounds and has not been able to stay healthy. It’s going to be the same issue.”

“(Auburn OT) Marcus McNeil passed our physical. He never missed any time. He doesn’t tuck his tail and get in and up on (defenders) like you want him to, but he’s not a major medical risk in the eyes of our doctors.”

“(South Carolina CB) Johnathan Joseph will take several years to figure it out and he may be a bust. He’s not a good worker. He misses a lot of tackles not wrapping. He gets beat a lot. He does not like the weight room. He has a 315-pound squat and two injuries after only playing one year. He can’t hold up.”

“Does (Michigan WR) Jason Avant get drafted on the first day? I put him in the fourth round. He can’t run. A lot of receivers are going to get drafted higher than they should. This is the worst receiving class I have seen since I have begun evaluating.”

“(Minnesota RB Laurence) Maroney is a tight, erect runner. He’s not a creator. There has to be a lane there for him to clear the line. He is a system guy. And he has an odd personality. He does not know when to shut up.”

“(Ohio State CB) Ashton Youboty is very young in his thinking. He should have stayed in school. He looks terrible on tape sometimes. He’s not consistent at all.”

“(Notre Dame TE) Anthony Fasano is a lot like (Steelers 2005 first-rounder) Heath Miller was last year. He’s not as good of an athlete, but he can help your team in a lot of the same ways.”

“(Western Michigan TE) Tony Scheffler reminds me a lot of (Bengals third-rounder) Aaron Schobel. (Scheffler) runs routes like he has a rod shoved up his ass. When you watch him on tape, he looks like a guy you see in black and white cut-ups, like he came out of the 1930s. He’s not fluid at all. I'd be surprised if he went on the first day, but he could. Anything is possible with the group of guys making decisions in this league.”

“I talked to a coach the other day who had (Michigan State DT) Domata Peko graded as a first-day talent. And I couldn’t correct him, but I hope they take him there. That just means another good player will be there for us. (Peko) is a one-year starter from junior college. Those are not the guys I want to bet on coming around.”

“Vince Young has put the brakes on his slide. It’s amazing how all of these evaluations come full circle. No football has been played since January, and what you thought he was then, he still is now. I think he is still more of a thrower than a passer. He’s so big. He drops 11 yards on seven steps. His presence is so intimidating.”

“(Penn State DE) Tamba Hali cannot find the ball. He is very overrated, and when you combine the history of Penn State defensive ends — Courtney Brown, Michael Haynes — I wouldn't touch him. More mistakes are made on players at that school than any because of the way the head coach (Joe Paterno) treats scouts. Call me shortsighted, but I have never drafted one from that school, and it will take a lot of convincing before I do.”

“I like (Miami, Fla.) OT Eric Winston better than (USC OT) Winston Justice. (Winston) is a good technician with solid fundamentals.”

“(Georgia TE) Leonard Pope is a 50-50 catcher with marginal concentration. He has way too many drops. With the amount of time tight ends have to catch in traffic in the pros, I don’t want him on my team. He can’t get in and out of routes.”

“I think a lot of teams will get spooked out by Ernie Sims’ concussions. I love the way he strikes, but I don't know how long he can hold up with the way he hits. He's an assassin."

“(Boston College DE) Mathias Kiwanuka cannot transfer his speed into power. He has no power. He has few special qualities. He's manufactured. You don’t want to know where I graded him. I have him in the third round.”

“(LSU OT) Andrew Whitworth will be overdrafted like all those big, long-armed maulers are. He can’t pull and change directions well enough to help us. He cannot stop a speed charge. He’s not explosive. He has no upside. He hasn’t changed since his freshman year except getting stronger. He has no flexibility. He’s a straight-line mauler with no lateral quickness. But someone will overdraft him because he’s an overachiever.”

“(Virginia LB) Kai Parham is a dinosaur. He will never be successful in the National Football League. He would have been really good as an inside ’backer in the 3-4 back in the early ’80s.â €

[motife]

1. Houston Texans — RB Reggie Bush, USC*
Mario Williams is gaining momentum in the eyes of the coaches. And keep in mind Gary Kubiak is coming from a team that has not drafted a runner in the first round in his NFL coaching career. If the Texans could reverse time, knowing what they do now, it's difficult for anyone in the league to argue that Julius Peppers has not meant more to Carolina than David Carr has to Houston. The Texans already have a multipurpose back in Domanick Davis and recently signed WR Eric Moulds. The Texans have added more options, but Bush is still the owner's favorite, and negotiations are likely to commence very soon.

2. New Orleans Saints — DE Mario Williams, North Carolina State*
With a big void at linebacker, the Saints' top target is A.J. Hawk. However, the only way they will select him is if they can move down a couple of spots. Williams could play anywhere on the defensive line. The time-tested strategy to build a team in the NFL is to start inside. With a quarterback in place, Williams brings the most value on the other side of the ball.

3. Tennessee Titans — QB Vince Young, Texas*
Owner Bud Adams, who makes his residence in Houston, and GM Floyd Reese are both waiting for the Texans to pass on their hometown hero so that he can lead the Titans to the promised land. A lot of scouts are scared by Young's talent because they have never seen anything like him enter the league before, but Reese is a bold evaluator.

4. New York Jets — OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Virginia
Pete Kendall is an ideal swing backup, not a true starter, and the Jets' running game suffered mightily last year when Kevin Mawae went down and they could not compensate for an average pair of guards. Recent acquisition Trey Teague brings help inside, but the OT situation is still flat-out ugly. Without Ferguson, it doesn't matter who the quarterback is because he will be on his back by the time he hits his fifth step and sets his feet.

5. Green Bay Packers — LB A.J. Hawk, Ohio State
The next Ray Nitschke, Hawk is a perfect fit for the city of Green Bay and brings versatility to play inside or out.

6. San Francisco 49ers — TE Vernon Davis, Maryland*
After trading Brandon Lloyd and Rashaun Woods, a receiving threat is much needed to make the Niners more competitive, and Davis has more upside than any receiver in this draft.

7. Oakland Raiders — DB Michael Huff, Texas
With Young and Davis both gone, Huff can make an immediate contribution at safety with Derrick Gibson having been exploited last year. Even though the Raiders drafted Fabian Washington and Stanford Routt with their first two picks a year ago, both struggled as rookies and still leave a void with Charles Woodson's departure. Huff could be groomed to play outside. His value is too great to pass.

8. Buffalo Bills — DT Brodrick Bunkley, Florida State
Has the quickness to line up as a three-technique and the brute strength to stack blockers on the nose. For what new Bills defensive coordinator Perry Fewell is beginning to implement, Bunkley is the best fit.

9. Detroit Lions — QB Matt Leinart, USC
Matt Millen would have never expected this scenario to unfold the way it very well could. As a result, he went out and signed two free-agent quarterbacks to compete for the job. Detroit fans would be outraged to know, after the team drafted receivers in the first round each of the last three years, that the WR position is still a huge need for Mike Martz's new offense. More pressing needs are at defensive tackle and cornerback, but with Huff and Bunkley likely off the board at this point, why not go with another Trojan, reuniting Mike Williams and Shaun Cody — their top two picks a year ago — with the former Heisman Trophy winner. If nothing else, at least there is some consistency to the mad decision-making of the NFL's most unpredictable, unsound (and highest-paid) decision maker.

10. Arizona Cardinals — QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
This is where the Vikings could come into play. A lot of teams are looking to trade down, and the Cardinals' history of moving is not great, but with Minnesota in dire need of a quarterback and Cutler being a great fit for their new offense, our sources say Brad Childress will begin calling the Cardinals.

11. St. Louis Rams — CB-S Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech
Huff is their top target, but if he is not there, they will take a chance on another big, physical cornerback and hope new defensive coordinator Jim Haslett can control him.

12. Cleveland Browns — DT Haloti Ngata, Oregon*
There's a chance Ngata could be gone at this point, with Philadelphia in serious need of a two-gapper and having a history of moving up. But, if he's available, Ngata will eventually replace the 38-year-old Ted Washington and become the anchor of the Browns' defense, having a year to receive valuable tutelage from one of the game's great cloggers.

13. Baltimore Ravens — LB Ernie Sims, Florida State*
Ray Lewis is getting older and has expressed his disappointment with his contract. What better way to silence him than to bring in another dynamic player. Linebacker may not be the Ravens' greatest need, and team sources think they may trade ahead of the Browns for Ngata, but Sims has the football temperament Ozzie Newsome loves.

14. Philadelphia Eagles — OT Winston Justice, USC
Jon Runyan does not have many years left in the tank, and Joe Banner tends to plan his cap situation three years out. To repair a roster that many league insiders think is becoming depleted, Reid could infuse some youth into both lines. The Eagles selected Mike Patterson in the first round a year ago, and our sources say they could go that route again this year and trade up for Ngata.

15. Denver Broncos — WR Chad Jackson, Florida*
With the Broncos actively shopping Ashley Lelie, receiver is a priority they must address. Jackson fits their offense like a glove.

16. Miami Dolphins — WR Santonio Holmes, Ohio State*
If Winston Justice is available, the Dolphins could take a chance on the young left tackle the same way they did with Manuel Wright in the supplemental draft last summer. However, there's a good chance Justice won't be there, and Saban needs more help at receiver. Holmes has some character questions, but Saban generally has done a good job controlling players and will not see it as that big of a risk given the scarcity of talent at the WR position.

17. Minnesota Vikings — LB Chad Greenway, Iowa
Almost every team in the top 10 is hoping two quarterbacks get drafted early and it forces another good player down to them, but the Vikings are hoping for the exact opposite and hoping the QBs fall far enough that they don't have to trade away too much to position themselves to get one. The Vikings have discussed trade scenarios to land one of the top throwers, but if they stay put, an athletic linebacker like Greenway would be dynamite in Mike Tomlin's penetrating attack.

18. Dallas Cowboys — OLB Manny Lawson, North Carolina State
A safety is needed more, but Lawson could help the defense even more by upgrading the pass rush and giving opposing quarterbacks less time to throw. He is very smart, has the frame to get a lot bigger and would complete the Cowboys' front seven.

19. San Diego Chargers — DB Jason Allen, Tennessee
The Chargers' secondary needed some help before trading away Sammy Davis, and Allen's size and versatility exceed concerns about injuries and his personality.

20. Kansas City Chiefs — CB Antonio Cromartie, Florida State*
Cromartie recently visited with the Chiefs and has the size, pure speed and ball skills that Herm Edwards covets. Teams will discount his ability because he is coming off a knee injury and only has one career start, but Edwards and GM Carl Peterson are confident in what they see.

21. New England Patriots — OLB Kamerion Wimbley, Florida State
The top rush LB prospect in the draft, Wimbley could contribute immediately in place of the departed Willie McGinest.

22. Denver Broncos — RB DeAngelo Williams, Memphis
Williams improved his stock in postseason workouts and could reinvigorate the Broncos' offense — exactly what they are seeking to accomplish after falling short in the playoffs last year with a lack of firepower.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — OT Eric Winston, Miami (Fla.)
The Bucs have a history of drafting local talent, and for good reason, with the amount of it in their backyard. A No. 3 corner or an offensive tackle is needed most, and Kelly Jennings could fit here just as easily. But the offensive line is a bigger area of need and could force the Bucs' hand.

24. Cincinnati Bengals — C Nick Mangold, Ohio State
Local Big Ten product fits well for a team high on Big Ten talent.

25. New York Giants — LB Bobby Carpenter, Ohio State
Carpenter's outstanding pro-day workout has propelled his draft stock. He is big, fast, can play inside or outside, rush the passer and cover, not to mention having NFL bloodlines. Although his intangibles are not exceptional, Tom Coughlin's tough-hearted approach could be just what Carpenter needs.

26. Chicago Bears — CB Tye Hill, Clemson
Donté Whitner would be a much better pick, but the Bears crave speed, and Hill was the fastest player at the Combine.

27. Carolina Panthers — TE Marcedes Lewis, UCLA
An improving blocker and fine pass catcher, Lewis could pair with WRs Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson to give opposing defenses fits.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars — LB DeMeco Ryans, Alabama
After losing Akin Ayodele, the Jaguars have a glaring hole on the strong side, and Ryans could fill it immediately and should be much more consistent than Ayodele was a year ago.

29. New York Jets — CB Kelly Jennings, Miami (Fla.)
Can step in and contribute right away after the Jets cut Ty Law in the offseason.

30. Indianapolis Colts — RB Laurence Maroney, Minnesota*
A big, fast zone runner, Maroney could get a chance to replace Edgerrin James, although don't rule out the Jets, who also are in need of a runner, taking Maroney.

31. Seattle Seahawks — CB Johnathan Joseph, South Carolina*
Could ideally contribute as a No. 3 corner and eventually develop into a solid starter. Has a ton of physical ability.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers — RB LenDale White, USC*
The Steelers remain one of the luckiest teams in the draft, finding their bell-cow back at this spot, although many scouts are not sure how lucky they should feel, given White's background. Nevertheless, he fills a need position with Jerome Bettis having retired.

[motife]

Random quotes from around the league

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

USC QB Matt Leinart, quoted in The Los Angeles Times about his much-publicized agent switch: “After lengthy discussions with my family, I felt it was in the best interest for my professional football career to have all of my representation combined," Leinart said in a statement. "My good friend and agent, Chuck Price, and Tom Condon of CAA Football will oversee my professional representation.”

Browns general manager Phil Savage on his view on the 2006 draft: “This is an important draft for us for three reasons. Obviously, this is the next step in the process of trying to rebuild the team. You do that from the inside out in the draft. These are players that we are bringing in to grow inside our own building. Secondly, it's an opportunity to continue to fill the holes on our squad and play off of what we did in free agency. We see this staff as being a completion to the puzzle for this 2006 offseason. Thirdly, this is our second year together as a staff, not only from a coaching standpoint, but from a scouting standpoint. We are trying to blend the two sides together.”

Savage on draft philosophy: “The question that is always asked is 'best available' versus needs. I think it's a combination of the two. It's best available for your team and that's how we have tried to set up our board. As far as needs go, obviously, there are immediate needs and secondary needs for a lack of a better term. Obviously, over the next few years, we are going to have needs at a lot of different positions. We have some where a player might start right away with the way our depth chart is set up right now. We have other players that may come in and have to wait their turn. Maybe we can narrow it down to a point where it will be difficult for rookies to come in and find a starting spot.”

Monday, April 17, 2006

Panthers WR Steve Smith, quoted in the Raleigh News and Observer, on whether the addition of WR Keyshawn Johnson will improve the Panthers’ offense: “I don't know. Everybody wants me to speculate. I can't speculate. The natural thing to say is 'yeah he's going to help us', but time will tell.”

Colts RB Dominic Rhodes, quoted in the Indianapolis Star, on replacing RB Edgerrin James, who left the Colts in free agency to sign with the Cardinals: “I'm ready to go out there and roll. I'm ready to help this team reach what we didn't reach last year. I'm getting ready to have a very productive season and show everybody who thinks because Edge is gone we're going to have a vulnerable spot at running back, (show) that I'm here to stay.”

Ex-Eagles QB Ron Jaworski, quoted in The Nashville City Paper, on why he thinks Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler is the best quarterback in the draft: “I think Matt Leinart is going to be very good, and I think Vince Young is going to be very good. … Everyone has different opinions. What I like about Cutler is that he threw with pressure on him. His offensive line wasn’t that good, and I saw throws that you have to make at the NFL level, people around him, bodies, throwing from different platforms, around people, sidearm, over the top, and taking hits looking down the gun barrel. I didn’t see a whole lot of separation from his wide receiving corps, so he was throwing through tight windows. He had to throw accurately with pressure on him. That projects well in the National Football League.”

Virginia OLT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, quoted in The New York Times, on how his lean 6-foot-6 frame may have been better-suited for basketball: “I think growing up, I was seen as the perfect power forward. For a long time I thought maybe I was supposed to be a basketball player.”

Packers GM Ted Thompson, quoted in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, on Ferguson, who is expected to be a top-10 draft pick: “D'Brick … he's very articulate. I think he's probably going to run for office one day. He showed up there on campus four years ago, 210 or 220 pounds, and now he's 310 and he's extremely talented.”

[HarveyWallbangers]

Packers GM Ted Thompson, quoted in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, on Ferguson, who is expected to be a top-10 draft pick: “D'Brick … he's very articulate. I think he's probably going to run for office one day. He showed up there on campus four years ago, 210 or 220 pounds, and now he's 310 and he's extremely talented.”

Thompson said "D'Brick". Boy, is he flamboyant or what?

[motife]

Thompson said "D'Brick". Boy, is he flamboyant or what?

Speaking of "articulate" Ted Thompson never says anything to the press and Mike McCarthy is about as ineloquent a coach as I've ever seen in Green Bay.

btw, There is a lot of verbiage in the above stuff from PFW, but NOBODY covers the NFL at the high level they do. They're the New York Times of NFL coverage.

[MJZiggy]

Thompson said "D'Brick". Boy, is he flamboyant or what?

Speaking of "articulate" Ted Thompson never says anything to the press and Mike McCarthy is about as ineloquent a coach as I've ever seen in Green Bay.

btw, There is a lot of verbiage in the above stuff from PFW, but NOBODY covers the NFL at the high level they do. They're the New York Times of NFL coverage.

M3 may sound ineloquent to the press, but I wonder how he sounds to the players. He sounds like a football player to me. I bet they can relate.

PFW sure beats the hell out of ESPN!! A novel concept. Write something useful.

[Bretsky]

Thompson said "D'Brick". Boy, is he flamboyant or what?

Speaking of "articulate" Ted Thompson never says anything to the press and Mike McCarthy is about as ineloquent a coach as I've ever seen in Green Bay.

btw, There is a lot of verbiage in the above stuff from PFW, but NOBODY covers the NFL at the high level they do. They're the New York Times of NFL coverage.

PFW does a GREAT JOB; I'm a subscriber and just received their annual Draft Guide as well as a paperback book that goes into detail on more players than will even get drafted.

Plus, their coverage is the best for fantasy football as well in the magazine, although I enjoy fanball.com's internet stories/analysis the best.

[motife]

[
M3 may sound ineloquent to the press, but I wonder how he sounds to the players. He sounds like a football player to me. I bet they can relate..

Hi ziggy,

Not to say being eloquent is a requirement to coach football. Bill Cowher, Bill Bellichick, Bud Grant, Tom Landry, Chuck Noll and others were not exactly scintillating verbally, but they got the job done.

Listening to McCarthy is going to be torture. He's yet to speak frankly or openly from what I've heard of him in any of his press conferences. Just cliches and blather. The assistant coaches are far more interesting.

Always great to hear from you ziggy. Was that really you in the pictures on the JSO site? If so, you're not your "average bear" for a Packer fan. I'm used to the red faced, crew cut, pot bellied, yellow plaid pants with a closet filled with bowling shirts set I guess.

[MJZiggy]

Uhhh...what pictures on jso????

[motife]

Uhhh...what pictures on jso????

Maybe I'm getting you mixed up with somebody. There was someone at JSO who in her "signature" had several pictures of herself amongst her Packer paraphenalia at home. Not you then? ooops!

[Bretsky]

Uhhh...what pictures on jso????

Maybe I'm getting you mixed up with somebody. There was someone at JSO who in her "signature" had several pictures of herself amongst her Packer paraphenalia at home. Not you then? ooops!

That was Mazzini, I think. A 18 or 19yr old. Ziggy's a hottie, but not quite that young. If you would like to see her pics on the Net, you will have to visit the adult sites :wink:

[b bulldog]

Which one???

[motife]

That was Mazzini, I think. A 18 or 19yr old. Ziggy's a hottie, but not quite that young. If you would like to see her pics on the Net, you will have to visit the adult sites :wink:

that was the one. that's why I was confused. I thought if that was ziggy, she was a VERY astute, well read 18 year old.

sorry ziggy!!!! :oops:

[MJZiggy]

No worries. Might be nice to be though of as a young hottie again, though I'm beyond the age of braces and reached the age where hubby says "well, you could get away with a bikini this year, but you've reached an age where it's best not to." Hmmmpf. Damned swimwear! Now back to football.

[Bretsky]

That was Mazzini, I think. A 18 or 19yr old. Ziggy's a hottie, but not quite that young. If you would like to see her pics on the Net, you will have to visit the adult sites :wink:

that was the one. that's why I was confused. I thought if that was ziggy, she was a VERY astute, well read 18 year old.

sorry ziggy!!!! :oops:

Are you saying Ziggy would be astute and well read for a 18 year old ? :mrgreen: :wink: