Fox sports video clips on Ngata

[b bulldog]

He actually shows some speed on the film. Moved laterally pretty well.

[Bretsky]

He actually shows some speed on the film. Moved laterally pretty well.

I don't want another oversized guy who takes plays off. He was up and down. I also must rely on Oregonpackfan who said mulitple times Mike Sherman was absolutely insane to draft James Lee....and expecially trade two picks to do so. He claimed Ngata has some talent, but not the work ethic so veer away.

[b bulldog]

I'm not saying we should take him just that he shows some burst on the film.

[Bretsky]

I'm not saying we should take him just that he shows some burst on the film.

Even that pokey guy Mario Williams shows some burst on the film :wink:

[b bulldog]

That burst shot his stock past that little CHICken Hawk.

[Bretsky]

That burst shot his stock past that little CHICken Hawk.

The Hawk flies by Mario like he's Reggie Bush racing the Fridge

[b bulldog]

SuperMario is well, SUPER!

[Anti-Polar Bear]

SuperMario is well, SUPER!

Not as super as the big, bad HUFF!!!

[oregonpackfan]

He actually shows some speed on the film. Moved laterally pretty well.

I don't want another oversized guy who takes plays off. He was up and down. I also must rely on Oregonpackfan who said mulitple times Mike Sherman was absolutely insane to draft James Lee....and expecially trade two picks to do so. He claimed Ngata has some talent, but not the work ethic so veer away.

Thanks for the endorsement, Bretsky.

To qualify my statements, I watched every Oregon Duck game the past season. Yes, I remember those occasional plays/games where Ngata looked a true first team all-American. I also remember the many plays/games where he was hardly a factor in the game.

A number of pro scouts have noticed Ngata's inconsistent effort and challenged him on it during the NFL combine. Even Ngata admitted he "Takes some plays off now and then."

You just can't have that attitude and play effectively at the pro level. Unless Ngata has an epiphany of passion and work ethic, he will be a bust in the pros.

Oregonpackfan

[HarveyWallbangers]

That burst shot his stock past that little CHICken Hawk.

That's not a given yet. It could be a smokescreen, but New Orleans is said to be seriously interested in Hawk at #2--although they'd rather trade down. That could mean that they have a similar rating with him and Mario.

[RashanGary]

Ngata is a hell of a player. He will not drop out of the top 10. I could care less that he is slow. His job is to stop the run and he's the best in the buis at playing his role.

Bush
Williams
Leinart
Ferguson
Hawk
Davis
Huff
Ngata
Young

[HarveyWallbangers]

And out of that top 10, you can bank on around 4 of them being busts. These guys all look great before they get to the NFL.

[RashanGary]

Yup,

2 or 3 to injury and 1 will probably just flame out. The rest should have at least solid NFL careers.

I can't picture Bush, Williams, Ferguson, Hawk, Huff or Davis being complete busts without injury. QB's you never know and Ngata has injury written all over him.

[RashanGary]

That was acctually 9. I think there are 9 top prospects and after that it is a free fall.

[Harlan Huckleby]

And out of that top 10, you can bank on around 4 of them being busts. These guys all look great before they get to the NFL.

But that is just because so much is expected of a top 10 guy. Probably 8 of the 10 will be good players.

It's funny, these are the cream of the cream, and the criticism makes them sound like average guys.

Reggie Bush - kinda light, will he be durable?
Leinart - well, can't say I've heard anything negative.
Vince Young - dumb, won't make it in pros with his run-first mentality
Fergusson - not a powerful run blocker
Mario - not a gamer, college stats not that special
Hawk - a solid player, but not much better than mid-round backers

And now Ngata will be a bust because of inconsistent play.

It's just amazing that there are almost no great prospects coming out of college!

[Harlan Huckleby]

These guys have all had time to prove themselves. I think only a handful have proven to be less than good players.


1998
1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State
3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State
4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan
5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State
6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska
7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State
8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina
9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida
10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL)

1999

1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky
2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse
3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon
4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL)
5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas
6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State
7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia
8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State
9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC
10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona


2000

1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State
2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State
3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama
4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State
5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee
6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State
7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia
8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State
9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico
10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida


2001
1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech
2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas
3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida
4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri
5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian
6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia
7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California
8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan
9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State
10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State

2002
1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State
2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina
3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon
4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas
5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas
6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina
7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL)
8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma
9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee
10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State

[digitaldean]

I saw Oregon play Arizona on TBS this past fall. What I saw of Ngata was impressive. His best play was on a running play where he blocked the running lane. He then shed his blocker, chased the back in the backfield and ran him down from behind.

He has size, he has speed. Yeah, the weight issue could be a problem. But I would be comfortable with him getting picked (only if we traded down in the top 10).

We would have to get 2 extra picks besides swapping first rnd picks.

If we didn't trade down, Williams (probably will be gone), Hawk or Vernon Davis would be great.

:mrgreen:

[K-town]

These guys have all had time to prove themselves. I think only a handful have proven to be less than good players.


1998
1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State BIGGEST BUST
3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State One or two good years
4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan Hey, we want this guy
5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State BUST
6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska Solid, but never an All-Pro
7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State Nice helmet toss
8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina Won't make you forget Charles Haley
9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida A very good back; would have been great except for injuries
10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL) Solid

1999

1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky BUST
2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse Legitimate star
3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon Double D BUST
4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL) All-Pro
5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas Got two coaches fired
6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State All-Pro
7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia Overrated
8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State Two good seasons, now a journeyman
9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC Never lived up to the rep
10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona Solid for a while


2000

1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State BUST
2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State We want this guy, part 2
3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama Value Pick
4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State Very high pick for a KR
5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee Only offense for the Super Bowl CHamp Ravens
6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State Good player for two teams
7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia Finally blossomed on his 3rd team
8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State Good player for two teams
9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico Paris Hilton! Man, I can't resist linking him to her
10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida Not even a good number 2 WR


2001
1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech WHO? Oh, you mean Ron Mexico
2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas Denny Green benched him
3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida Spot duty contributor
4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri BUST
5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian All-world
6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia Best DT in football
7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California BUST
8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan BUST
9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State May still develop
10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State BUST

2002
1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State Jury's still out
2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina All-world
3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon BUST
4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas BUST
5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas BUST
6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina BUST
7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL) Solid
8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma All-Pro
9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee All-Pro
10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State Pro-Bowl?

By my count, more than a handful - approaching 50%

[Partial]

First of all, it takes 5 years to tell minimum.



Many of those busts are average starters. They aren't busts, they just aren't booms. Quinton Jammar starts on one of the best defenses in the league, Sims is labeled as pretty good as I recall

[Harlan Huckleby]

By my count, more than a handful - approaching 50%

nah. Most of the them are starters.

Harrington is not a bust. Courtney Brown is still starting somewhere.

[K-town]

By my count, more than a handful - approaching 50%

nah. Most of the them are starters.

Harrington is not a bust. Courtney Brown is still starting somewhere.

If Joey Harrington were in Green and Gold, he would rival Tony Mandarich as the biggest bust in our history. Seriously, how can you say Harrington isn't one of the worst starting QBs in the league? That's not a bust? Would you want the number 5 pick in the 2006 draft to no longer be a Packer or a starter on any team in four years?
Courtney Brown is a rotation guy for Denver. Gerald Warren and Brown were high draft picks for Cleveland who were marginal starters at best. The change of scenery helped when they went to Denver. Again, though, I consider them to be disappointments or even "busts" because they failed to impact their teams in a dynamic manner. KGB and Aaron Kampman were/are better players than either Warren or Brown, and they're not even rated in the top half of the league at their positions. When you invest a top five pick on a player that doesn't help your team, and he is let go/traded/allowed to bolt in free agency, etc., that to me is a bust.
Just my opinion.

[Partial]

Harrington will be good in a few years. He's got the tools lacks the confidence.

But, I guess he's not a bust if you never expected him to be good :lol:

[MJZiggy]

I'll be interested to see how he does with the Fins.

[RashanGary]

Looked like about a 33% bust rate.

That is not too bad. This year is a better than average top 9 IMO. Ngata is one of my favorite players in this whole draft. I know he's got a few issues but if he can stay healthy he could rival Bush/Williams as the best player in this draft.

Physically he's just amazing.

[RashanGary]

5 out of 25 of the 4, 5 and 6 players were busts. That is only a 20% bust rate.

I don't think as many of the 4 - 6 players are HOFers as the 1-3 but it looks like they have pretty low bust rates.

[RashanGary]

The 1-3 had a 20% bust rate
The 4-6 had a 20% bust rate

It's the 7-10 that is bringing the bust rate way up.

[Harlan Huckleby]

A lot of those guys labeled as "busts" are in the NFL.

Do the same experiment with later rounds. I think you'll see how strongly draft position correlates with success. Late round guys are lucky to be in NFL after 3 years.

So, it's true that a high draft pick may be a bust. But they are still MUCH more valuable than later picks. It's relative.

[RashanGary]

Right on HH...

The top 10 is the place to be if you want good players. The top 5 is even better.

I would be very surprised if whoever the Packers picks is a bust. I think Thompson has what it takes to pick the strongest player at that position.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Sorry, but a guy picked in the top 10 is a bust if he's only an average starter.

[HarveyWallbangers]

1998
1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State - BUST
3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State - BUST
4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan
5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State - BUST
6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska
7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State
8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina
9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida
10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL) - BUST (borderline)

1999

1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky - BUST
2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse
3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon - BUST
4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL)
5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas
6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State
7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia
8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State - BUST (borderline)
9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC - BUST
10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona


2000

1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State - BUST
2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State
3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama
4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State
5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee
6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State
7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia - BUST (borderline, 1 good season out of 6)
8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State
9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico
10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida - BUST


2001
1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech
2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas
3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida - BUST
4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri
5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian
6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia
7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California
8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan - BUST
9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State
10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State - BUST

2002
1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State
2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina
3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon - BUST
4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas - BUST
5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas - BUST
6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina - BUST
7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL)
8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma
9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee
10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State

18 of 50 - 36% in my book

[Harlan Huckleby]

Sorry, but a guy picked in the top 10 is a bust if he's only an average starter.

OK, what word describes Jamal Reynolds? Nuclear bust? That is a wide range of players to put under the "bust" category. And it makes it sound like he high draft picks are especially risky.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Sorry, but a guy picked in the top 10 is a bust if he's only an average starter.

OK, what word describes Jamal Reynolds? Nuclear bust? That is a wide range of players to put under the "bust" category. And it makes it sound like he high draft picks are especially risky.

No, not really. 64% success rate in the top 10 is still a hell of a lot better than the 25% success rate (or whatever it is) in round 2 or 10% in later rounds. My point is that everybody loves almost all of these guys, but there will be a good percentage that don't pan out. Would anybody be happy if Hawk had a career like Chris Claiborne?

[Harlan Huckleby]

Clayborne's pretty damn good.

Well, there really isn't much to argue about, obviously the high draft picks have high expectations.

The point I was trying to make is that people think trading-down makes drafting less risky, and that is not necessarily the case. It's just perception, the high-profile busts get so much publicity.

[Scott Campbell]

[quote=HarveyWallbangers]And it makes it sound like he high draft picks are especially risky.

High draft picks are especially risky because of the amount of money you have to pay them.

[RashanGary]

Lets say the team with the highest amount of wins got to pick their draft position. The steelers would pick first. Do you guys really think they would choose #32? No they would choose #1 and take Reggie Bush. Each team down from them would take the next pick. It is common sense. High risk or not it is always better to be picking early. This year is a better than normal draft and GB should get a great player with the #5 pick. Anyone who's complaining about top picks are just pussy's who are too affraid of failure to take a damn shot.