Bretsky
10-11-2006, 12:52 AM
Nothing super on the horizon
History shows Packers in midst of a long rebuilding project
Posted: Oct. 10, 2006
Cliff Christl
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How long will it be before the Green Bay Packers turn things around? How long before they're back competing for a shot at the Super Bowl?
The guess here is that it won't be any time soon.
No matter how many teams have vaulted from near the bottom to near the top of the standings in a single year, rebuilding takes time.
The Chicago Bears didn't improve from 5-11 in 2004 to 11-5 in 2005 because of one draft or a single spending spree in free agency. The same for the Cincinnati Bengals, when they climbed from 2-14 in 2002 to back-to-back 8-8 seasons to 11-5 last year.
Ditto for the Baltimore Ravens when they won the Super Bowl following the 2000 season, two years removed from a 6-10 finish. Ditto for the St. Louis Rams when they won the Super Bowl following the 1999 season, a year removed from a 4-12 finish.
Brett Favre and the Packers appear to be in the midst of a long rebuilding project.
It might have appeared as though those teams were built in a day, but their turnabouts followed years of losing and drafting early.
When you hear commentators talking about how common it is for teams to jump from last to first in the NFL, it's a myth, or at least highly misleading.
Before 2005, the Bears had endured nine losing seasons over a 10-year period. Likewise for the Bengals. They had gone 15 years without a winning record prior to last season.
Before 2000, the Ravens hadn't had a winning record in their first four years in Baltimore and they had only one in their final six years in Cleveland. Before 1999, the Rams had suffered through nine straight losing seasons.
The Packers just crashed last year. Therefore, if they're going to follow the same time frame as most of those previously mentioned NFL franchises, it'll take close to a decade at least to get back on track. That seems to be the typical cycle in today's NFL.
No. 1, the Packers might not have hit bottom yet. That day might not come until Brett Favre retires. And then the challenge of rebuilding figures to become even more difficult.
There's nothing harder in team sports than replacing a legend.
No. 2, the Packers don't even appear to have the one or two building blocks it takes for a championship team.
For the Bears, it was Brian Urlacher. For the Bengals, it was Carson Palmer, although he was more the final piece to the puzzle than the catalyst. For the Ravens, it was Ray Lewis. For the Rams, it all started with Orlando Pace, but had more to do with the arrival of Marshall Faulk.
Predictably, the Bears' cornerstone player was a defender and they're winning with defense. It was the same with Baltimore. The Bengals' premier player is a quarterback and they're winning with offense. Pace and Faulk played offense and the Rams won with offense.
Look at the Packers' last rebuilding project.
It took 24 years for them to even lay the foundation and then everything came together almost as fast as a house on "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition." The Packers acquired Favre in 1992, Reggie White the following year; and that was what propelled them to victory in Super Bowl XXXI. Filling in the rest of the pieces was the easy part. Once the Packers had Favre and White, they improved from year to year and won a Super Bowl within five.
But it's worth repeating: It took 24 plus years to find a Favre and a White. The Packers didn't acquire them the traditional way: Through the draft. But they were a rare exception. How many teams over the entire history of the league have acquired a Favre in a trade or signed a free agent who had the same impact as White?
That's why there's not much that can happen with the Packers over the remainder of the current season, following this week's bye, that will create hope for the future.
It would help if they started playing with 11 men on every down on defense. Until coach Mike McCarthy and defensive coordinator Bob Sanders get that corrected, they're never going to right the ship.
It also would be an encouraging sign if the defenders at least acted like they knew where they were supposed to be after getting gouged for big plays. Again, teams typically play like they practice and when players seem to be committing an excessive number of mental mistakes, it raises a red flag.
Other positive developments would be if Greg Jennings continued to make big plays, if the young interior offensive linemen continued to improve and if Nick Collins started playing the ball better.
Those are players who should be a big part of the Packers' nucleus three, four years down the road.
But nothing would bode better for the future than if A.J. Hawk started blowing up ball-carriers, sacking quarterbacks on a weekly basis and making game-turning plays.
That doesn't seem likely at this point. Hawk has played well at times, but he's not having anywhere near the kind of rookie season that San Diego's outside linebacker Shawne Merriman enjoyed just a year ago.
Again, until the Packers find their next Favre, a player they can build a team or at least an offensive or defensive unit around, they're not likely to be going anywhere fast. Sometimes obtaining a franchise running back serves as a shortcut to success, but it also makes it harder to get over the next hump as the Detroit Lions learned with Barry Sanders, the Los Angeles Rams with Eric Dickerson and so many others.
In a nutshell, the history of the league tells us that Super Bowl champions are almost never built overnight.
History shows Packers in midst of a long rebuilding project
Posted: Oct. 10, 2006
Cliff Christl
How long will it be before the Green Bay Packers turn things around? How long before they're back competing for a shot at the Super Bowl?
The guess here is that it won't be any time soon.
No matter how many teams have vaulted from near the bottom to near the top of the standings in a single year, rebuilding takes time.
The Chicago Bears didn't improve from 5-11 in 2004 to 11-5 in 2005 because of one draft or a single spending spree in free agency. The same for the Cincinnati Bengals, when they climbed from 2-14 in 2002 to back-to-back 8-8 seasons to 11-5 last year.
Ditto for the Baltimore Ravens when they won the Super Bowl following the 2000 season, two years removed from a 6-10 finish. Ditto for the St. Louis Rams when they won the Super Bowl following the 1999 season, a year removed from a 4-12 finish.
Brett Favre and the Packers appear to be in the midst of a long rebuilding project.
It might have appeared as though those teams were built in a day, but their turnabouts followed years of losing and drafting early.
When you hear commentators talking about how common it is for teams to jump from last to first in the NFL, it's a myth, or at least highly misleading.
Before 2005, the Bears had endured nine losing seasons over a 10-year period. Likewise for the Bengals. They had gone 15 years without a winning record prior to last season.
Before 2000, the Ravens hadn't had a winning record in their first four years in Baltimore and they had only one in their final six years in Cleveland. Before 1999, the Rams had suffered through nine straight losing seasons.
The Packers just crashed last year. Therefore, if they're going to follow the same time frame as most of those previously mentioned NFL franchises, it'll take close to a decade at least to get back on track. That seems to be the typical cycle in today's NFL.
No. 1, the Packers might not have hit bottom yet. That day might not come until Brett Favre retires. And then the challenge of rebuilding figures to become even more difficult.
There's nothing harder in team sports than replacing a legend.
No. 2, the Packers don't even appear to have the one or two building blocks it takes for a championship team.
For the Bears, it was Brian Urlacher. For the Bengals, it was Carson Palmer, although he was more the final piece to the puzzle than the catalyst. For the Ravens, it was Ray Lewis. For the Rams, it all started with Orlando Pace, but had more to do with the arrival of Marshall Faulk.
Predictably, the Bears' cornerstone player was a defender and they're winning with defense. It was the same with Baltimore. The Bengals' premier player is a quarterback and they're winning with offense. Pace and Faulk played offense and the Rams won with offense.
Look at the Packers' last rebuilding project.
It took 24 years for them to even lay the foundation and then everything came together almost as fast as a house on "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition." The Packers acquired Favre in 1992, Reggie White the following year; and that was what propelled them to victory in Super Bowl XXXI. Filling in the rest of the pieces was the easy part. Once the Packers had Favre and White, they improved from year to year and won a Super Bowl within five.
But it's worth repeating: It took 24 plus years to find a Favre and a White. The Packers didn't acquire them the traditional way: Through the draft. But they were a rare exception. How many teams over the entire history of the league have acquired a Favre in a trade or signed a free agent who had the same impact as White?
That's why there's not much that can happen with the Packers over the remainder of the current season, following this week's bye, that will create hope for the future.
It would help if they started playing with 11 men on every down on defense. Until coach Mike McCarthy and defensive coordinator Bob Sanders get that corrected, they're never going to right the ship.
It also would be an encouraging sign if the defenders at least acted like they knew where they were supposed to be after getting gouged for big plays. Again, teams typically play like they practice and when players seem to be committing an excessive number of mental mistakes, it raises a red flag.
Other positive developments would be if Greg Jennings continued to make big plays, if the young interior offensive linemen continued to improve and if Nick Collins started playing the ball better.
Those are players who should be a big part of the Packers' nucleus three, four years down the road.
But nothing would bode better for the future than if A.J. Hawk started blowing up ball-carriers, sacking quarterbacks on a weekly basis and making game-turning plays.
That doesn't seem likely at this point. Hawk has played well at times, but he's not having anywhere near the kind of rookie season that San Diego's outside linebacker Shawne Merriman enjoyed just a year ago.
Again, until the Packers find their next Favre, a player they can build a team or at least an offensive or defensive unit around, they're not likely to be going anywhere fast. Sometimes obtaining a franchise running back serves as a shortcut to success, but it also makes it harder to get over the next hump as the Detroit Lions learned with Barry Sanders, the Los Angeles Rams with Eric Dickerson and so many others.
In a nutshell, the history of the league tells us that Super Bowl champions are almost never built overnight.