Bretsky
10-15-2006, 09:00 AM
Bad at the bye, but progress in sight
Posted: Oct. 12, 2006
Rick Braun
E-MAIL
Green Bay - So the bye week is here and the Green Bay Packers sit at 1-4.
What did we expect? Probably about that. Maybe we thought 2-3 before the season started, but then the New Orleans Saints have turned out to be much better than just about anyone expected.
Did we expect the Packers to beat the Chicago Bears? No. Did we expect them to win at Philadelphia? No.
Then again, they've rarely played well indoors in Detroit and managed to get their one victory there.
On the flip side, they pretty much gave away the game on Sunday, a 23-20 loss to the St. Louis Rams. Now the Rams are 4-1, but with a loss at San Francisco and three of their victories over the Packers, Arizona Cardinals and Lions, jumping on the St. Louis bandwagon would certainly be premature.
So entering the bye week, the question is: How do we evaluate the Packers' first five games?
Is it a train wreck in progress?
Or is it simply progress?
Right now, the guess here is the latter.
Sure, the 2006 season might not end up as one of the more memorable in team annals. But a closer inspection of the Packers' five games shows that they could pretty easily be something like 3-2 if not for some self-inflicted wounds.
The most glaring examples are the losses to New Orleans and St. Louis. If you want to stretch it out a little, even the loss at Philadelphia was at least as much the Packers' doing as it was the Eagles'.
The Packers lost to the Saints by a touchdown, 34-27. Yet quarterback Brett Favre threw an interception on a play that started at the New Orleans 7, and the Saints also turned an Ahman Green fumble into a touchdown. At minimum that's a 10-point swing, or even 14.
Against the Rams, same thing. A Vernand Morency fumble led to 7 St. Louis points, and a fumble at the end cost the Packers at least a field goal and maybe a touchdown.
In other words, right there are two self-inflicted losses.
Now, the Philadelphia loss was by 22 points, so let's not be so quick to throw that into the self-inflicted category. But you can't ignore the mental errors in coverage that led to two long touchdown passes, a turnover inside their own 10 and a couple of dropped passes on what should have been either touchdowns or big plays.
But enough of this what-if stuff.
The point is to try to get a decent read on the Packers.
As was said in this space on Aug. 24, the measuring stick for these 2006 Packers should not be any of the playoff teams of the mid-1990s or 2000-'04. Instead, the measuring stick needs to be the 1992 team, those Packers of first-year coach Mike Holmgren and new quarterback Brett Favre.
The arrival of those two men did not signal an immediate turnaround. Don't forget that the '92 Packers started out 0-2 and were 2-5 and 3-6 before ripping off six consecutive victories.
Now, with games against New England on Nov. 19 and at Seattle on Nov. 27, we don't see anything resembling a six-game winning streak in November and December this season.
But the real point will be if we see progress.
In fact, the point is whether we're seeing progress right now, and the answer to that question is definitely "Yes."
Certainly there has to be optimism when looking at an offensive line that has cleared the way for a 99-yard rusher and a 106-yard rusher in the last two games. Then take into account that neither of them was Ahman Green.
Vernand Morency picked up the 99 at Philadelphia, and Noah Herron ran for 106 on Sunday and a spiffy 4.7 yards-per-carry average.
The coaching staff would have us believe that that's because the line and the running backs are getting better with each and every repetition in the new zone-blocking scheme. There's no reason to believe that's not true, and it's hard to ignore the running room Herron had on Sunday.
On defense, the most progress is needed in stopping the big-play, particularly in the pass game. There was some progress toward that end on Sunday, as the Rams threw for just 220 yards despite having a top-notch passing game with quarterback Mark Bulger and wide receiver Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.
In three of the five games the Packer run defense has held opponents to less than 4 yards per rush.
Even though the Packer brass won't use the word, this is a rebuilding process.
In five games, there have been enough signs of progress to believe there is a bright future ahead and it might not be too far off in the horizon.
At the same time, post-bye progress will be more apparent if the Packers start winning some of the games instead of just coming close and beating themselves.
Posted: Oct. 12, 2006
Rick Braun
Green Bay - So the bye week is here and the Green Bay Packers sit at 1-4.
What did we expect? Probably about that. Maybe we thought 2-3 before the season started, but then the New Orleans Saints have turned out to be much better than just about anyone expected.
Did we expect the Packers to beat the Chicago Bears? No. Did we expect them to win at Philadelphia? No.
Then again, they've rarely played well indoors in Detroit and managed to get their one victory there.
On the flip side, they pretty much gave away the game on Sunday, a 23-20 loss to the St. Louis Rams. Now the Rams are 4-1, but with a loss at San Francisco and three of their victories over the Packers, Arizona Cardinals and Lions, jumping on the St. Louis bandwagon would certainly be premature.
So entering the bye week, the question is: How do we evaluate the Packers' first five games?
Is it a train wreck in progress?
Or is it simply progress?
Right now, the guess here is the latter.
Sure, the 2006 season might not end up as one of the more memorable in team annals. But a closer inspection of the Packers' five games shows that they could pretty easily be something like 3-2 if not for some self-inflicted wounds.
The most glaring examples are the losses to New Orleans and St. Louis. If you want to stretch it out a little, even the loss at Philadelphia was at least as much the Packers' doing as it was the Eagles'.
The Packers lost to the Saints by a touchdown, 34-27. Yet quarterback Brett Favre threw an interception on a play that started at the New Orleans 7, and the Saints also turned an Ahman Green fumble into a touchdown. At minimum that's a 10-point swing, or even 14.
Against the Rams, same thing. A Vernand Morency fumble led to 7 St. Louis points, and a fumble at the end cost the Packers at least a field goal and maybe a touchdown.
In other words, right there are two self-inflicted losses.
Now, the Philadelphia loss was by 22 points, so let's not be so quick to throw that into the self-inflicted category. But you can't ignore the mental errors in coverage that led to two long touchdown passes, a turnover inside their own 10 and a couple of dropped passes on what should have been either touchdowns or big plays.
But enough of this what-if stuff.
The point is to try to get a decent read on the Packers.
As was said in this space on Aug. 24, the measuring stick for these 2006 Packers should not be any of the playoff teams of the mid-1990s or 2000-'04. Instead, the measuring stick needs to be the 1992 team, those Packers of first-year coach Mike Holmgren and new quarterback Brett Favre.
The arrival of those two men did not signal an immediate turnaround. Don't forget that the '92 Packers started out 0-2 and were 2-5 and 3-6 before ripping off six consecutive victories.
Now, with games against New England on Nov. 19 and at Seattle on Nov. 27, we don't see anything resembling a six-game winning streak in November and December this season.
But the real point will be if we see progress.
In fact, the point is whether we're seeing progress right now, and the answer to that question is definitely "Yes."
Certainly there has to be optimism when looking at an offensive line that has cleared the way for a 99-yard rusher and a 106-yard rusher in the last two games. Then take into account that neither of them was Ahman Green.
Vernand Morency picked up the 99 at Philadelphia, and Noah Herron ran for 106 on Sunday and a spiffy 4.7 yards-per-carry average.
The coaching staff would have us believe that that's because the line and the running backs are getting better with each and every repetition in the new zone-blocking scheme. There's no reason to believe that's not true, and it's hard to ignore the running room Herron had on Sunday.
On defense, the most progress is needed in stopping the big-play, particularly in the pass game. There was some progress toward that end on Sunday, as the Rams threw for just 220 yards despite having a top-notch passing game with quarterback Mark Bulger and wide receiver Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.
In three of the five games the Packer run defense has held opponents to less than 4 yards per rush.
Even though the Packer brass won't use the word, this is a rebuilding process.
In five games, there have been enough signs of progress to believe there is a bright future ahead and it might not be too far off in the horizon.
At the same time, post-bye progress will be more apparent if the Packers start winning some of the games instead of just coming close and beating themselves.