Once again.....Packers the dog

[GrnBay007]

Miami favored by 4 pts.

Guess this is to be expected being on the road and the Packers record to date.

Have the Packers been favored at all this year? Maybe the Saints game...

[Packers4Ever]

Miami favored by 4 pts.

Guess this is to be expected being on the road and the Packers record to date.

Have the Packers been favored at all this year? Maybe the Saints game...

Shhhhhhh, don't let it get to you, 007, it's just all
that damn pre-game hype, you know, same thing
every game. We're going to cruise right through it ! :D

[MJZiggy]

Hey all of our win this season has been on the road!

[BF4MVP]

Miami is DEFINITELY worse than us. Their starting QB got benched in favor of Joey Harrington for Christ's sake.

We have the advantage at just about every position, IMO...

[gbpackfan]

We "should" win in Miami. However, if Woodson is out, if Driver is still hurting and we get ONE injury to a starter not named Manual, we are in trouble. Ruvell Martin has to step up too.

Packers 24
Miami 17

[BallHawk]

Have the Packers been favored at all this year? Maybe the Saints game...

Nope. We were 2 point underdogs against the Saints.

[Bretsky]

Miami is DEFINITELY worse than us. Their starting QB got benched in favor of Joey Harrington for Christ's sake.

We have the advantage at just about every position, IMO...

Let's not go that far. The reason Green Bay wins is Joey Harrington and team chaos in Finland.

Greeb Bay's QB > Miami's QB

Miami RB > Green Bay RB

Miami DL > Green Bay's OL

Green Bay's DL > Miami's OL

Green Bay's WR > Miami WR by a bit

Miami's TE > Green Bay's TE's

Green Bay's Secondary prolly slightly better than Miami's Secondary.

Home Field advantage goes to Miami


PRETTY EVEN BREAKDOWN IF YOU ASK ME

[Packers4Ever]

Miami is DEFINITELY worse than us. Their starting QB got benched in favor of Joey Harrington for Christ's sake.

We have the advantage at just about every position, IMO...

WAHOOOOO, Bring 'em on !! :lol: :mrgreen: :lol:

[FavreChild]

Who has the coaching advantage, B? :mrgreen:

Both teams have equal penchant for suckitude and/or beating themselves this season. The line sounds about right - not a good game to bet on, really.

[Bretsky]

Who has the coaching advantage, B? :mrgreen:

Both teams have equal penchant for suckitude and/or beating themselves this season. The line sounds about right - not a good game to bet on, really.

Well, it's a toughie to breakdown the coaching advantage.

I'd undoubtedly take the Dolphins defensive coaching staff over ours.
I kind of like our offensive side staff but they are unproven.

And Saban did very well last year and does have a track record of success at least in college.

So if I had to say I'd say

Miami Coaching Staff > Green Bay's Coaching Staff

but not by that much

B

[Bretsky]

Who has the coaching advantage, B? :mrgreen:

Both teams have equal penchant for suckitude and/or beating themselves this season. The line sounds about right - not a good game to bet on, really.


If I HAD to, I bet against Joey Harrington. Lifetime brutal QB rating of 68 and he seems to consistently choke when the cards are on the line.

[Packers4Ever]

Who has the coaching advantage, B? :mrgreen:

Both teams have equal penchant for suckitude and/or beating themselves this season. The line sounds about right - not a good game to bet on, really.


If I HAD to, I bet against Joey Harrington. Lifetime brutal QB rating of 68 and he seems to consistently choke when the cards are on the line.

Great !! My favorite thing to watch, :mrgreen:

[Partial]

I think we take this game. Woody, your boy has a chance to walk the walk after you talked the talk! Lets see it!! :cool:

[Packers4Ever]

I think we take this game. Woody, your boy has a chance to walk the walk after you talked the talk! Lets see it!! :cool:

Partial, just one little question if you don't mind?
On your sig, it's definitely the start of a poem,
but what is the 4th line?
It's been driving me nuts, LOL !! [I'm sorry, it's OT]

And tomorrow, Woody's boy will walk the walk !! :wink:

[Sparkey]

Miami favored by 4 pts.

Guess this is to be expected being on the road and the Packers record to date.

Have the Packers been favored at all this year? Maybe the Saints game...

That is a betting line and is totally irrelevant to who they think might win. They only adjust that based on betting patterns so that they balance out the overall dollars bet on each team.

For example, if the next 1,000,000 (could be 10's of million) dollars of bets on the game would all be on Miami to cover, they might raise the line to 6.5 which would steer more people to bet on Green Bay to cover the spread.

You might all ready know this, but just wanted to throw it out there.

SEE NEXT POST FOR MORE INFO

[Sparkey]

Understanding Lines Helps You Beat Them

Exactly Who Makes the Line?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.


What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why the Line Changes

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

* Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
* Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

[Partial]

I think we take this game. Woody, your boy has a chance to walk the walk after you talked the talk! Lets see it!! :cool:

Partial, just one little question if you don't mind?
On your sig, it's definitely the start of a poem,
but what is the 4th line?
It's been driving me nuts, LOL !! [I'm sorry, it's OT]

And tomorrow, Woody's boy will walk the walk !! :wink:

'cause London is burning and I, I live by the river.

[oregonpackfan]

Though I pessimistically predicted losses for all of the Packer games thus far, I actually feel optimistic about the Packers winning against the Dolphins.

I saw overall team improvement in the game against the Rams. The defense showed me some attitude, hustle, and scrappiness. I predict this score to be:

Packers 24

Dolphins 21

OPF

[Packers4Ever]

I think we take this game. Woody, your boy has a chance to walk the walk after you talked the talk! Lets see it!! :cool:

Partial, just one little question if you don't mind?
On your sig, it's definitely the start of a poem,
but what is the 4th line?
It's been driving me nuts, LOL !! [I'm sorry, it's OT]

And tomorrow, Woody's boy will walk the walk !! :wink:

'cause London is burning and I, I live by the river.

Thank you, Partial !! :smile:
Should be Sunday Woody's boy will walk the walk...we all can
feel a win coming on !

[esoxx]

Line is now up to +5.5 on the Fish. A lot of money on Miami's side from the general betting public. That actually might be a good sign for the Packers. Usually the general betting public is wrong when they favor one side too much. It's the "sharks" that jump the early line that typically fare best.