PackerRat Rankings Thru Week 7

[Fosco33]

Hey PR Folks-

MTP, MJ and I have been working to get this on the homepage but getting the chart up there is kinda tricky. So, I'm posting this here for now.

We're quickly approaching midseason folks and this season is beginning to feel like a midlife crisis for many teams. You've got 'Superbowl' contenders losing in amazing fashion, the Packers trying to gain an identity and the Bears dominating in many respects. Can the Packers beat the Cards and Bills to reach .500 for the Vikings game? Yes. Are they good enough to play through injuries and overcome their inexperience for a playoff run. No. Will we watch every play in anticipation of greatness while watching #4 go out slinging? Of course.

Like many men (and women) facing midlife crises, the Packers may need to do some serious soul searching and determine a corrective course of action for the future.

The Packers face a struggling Cardinal team on Sunday. A struggling offense with a departed OC faces one of the worst secondaries in the league. Expect Leiny and Bouldin to have a field day with some of our fresh faces.

Best Matchups:

AZ vs. GB
ATL vs. CIN
BAL vs. NO
PIT vs. OAK
SEA vs. KC
DAL vs. CAR
NE vs. MIN
IND vs. DEN
JAC vs. PHI


Blowouts:
SF vs. CHI
NYJ vs. CLE
TB vs. NYG
STL vs. SD


Must Miss:
HOU vs. TEN



For new readers to the PR Ranking System, I'll give a quick recap of how this works.

Take the most predictive metrics on offense, defense and turnovers.

Rank the teams by each metric.

Apply a super-secret formula to those metric ranks (rivaling BCS rankings and QB Passer ratings for clarity).

Use this tool to help identify hot teams (red) and cold teams (blue) for office pools or just fun.

This system not only gives you an analytical view (no opinions) but compares predictive rankings to actual winning percentage. I've done the liberty of outlining the teams where the prediction and outcomes vary (over/under performers). Watch out for those teams when making picks.

Over the past 3 years, the 'Overall Rank' can be used to determine season wins (average and range).

Every midweek, I'll be compiling this data and giving you my insights. I encourage all those interested to comment in the forum or PM Fosco33 to either discuss items or recommend changes.

http://img8.picsplace.to/img8/22/Week_7_PR_Ranking.JPG (http://picsplace.to/)

[Fosco33]

So how did the Packers match up with the Cardinals today:

Packers Off/Def/TO

Off 6.0 y/p; 29% on 3rd down, led TOP 33:39
Def 3.4 y/p; 43% on 3rd down; TOP 26:21
Packers win T/O battle 1-0.

In the previous 7 games, AZ gave up 5.3 y/p and 40% on 3rd down. Their avg TOP was a little more than 30 min/game. And they had a 0.5/game margin on T/O's.

Previously, the Packers had given up large plays and 5.8 y/p and only 35% on 3rd down with the O keeping the ball a little less than half the game.

This was a solid game all around for the Packers - and a W that they had to grab.

My guess, they'll move up to b/w 18-20 next week in this ranking system.

[run pMc]

Very cool.
Chart is missing BUF & DET?

[GrnBay007]

Interesting stuff Fosco, thanks for posting it!

[Fosco33]

Very cool.
Chart is missing BUF & DET?

I think I may have left off some of the 'bye week' teams by accident.

Here's their info from last week:

Detroit 5.2 10 28.2 29 28:09:00 27 5.4 24 36 14 -3 23 21.15 25 24.3 -3.15 16.7% 29 18.0 20 26.3 29 Won 1
Buffalo 4.5 28 27.8 30 29:40:00 20 5.1 18 34.2 12 -4 25 22.70 27 19.4 3.30 33.3% 21 15.7 26 20.8 18 Lost 2