Manning's Career TD numbers?

[LL2]

Favre is about 11 TD's from breaking Marino's all time TD stat, but how many TD's does Peyton have. I just have a feeling Favre isn't going to hold on to the top spot for long.

[ahaha]

Favre is about 11 TD's from breaking Marino's all time TD stat, but how many TD's does Peyton have. I just have a feeling Favre isn't going to hold on to the top spot for long.

It depends on how long the Colts offense can stay at this elite level. And, can Manning remain healthy as he enters the twilight years. Manning has only thrown for 30 or more TD's twice. 33 in '00 and 49 in '04.

Right now, Favre is at 406, 14 shy of Marino. Will he stay another year or two to bolster those numbers?

Manning has 259 in his 9th season at age 30. 161 behind Marino. It could be tight.

I hope Manning struggles through a couple injury plagued seasons.

[LL2]

I believe Manning made a comment in the past year that he plans on playing around 8 more years. If that is the case he will surpass Marino and Favre by a longshot. I'd like to see Favre hold on to the top spot for at least 10 years. Marino will only hold it for 7 years.

[ahaha]

Manning is 147 behind Favre. Hopefully Brett comes back next year and puts the record up around 440. If that happens, it will be tough for Manning to do it. He'll need to play at an elite level in to his mid to late 30's. The Colts have been able to keep a great cast around Manning his whole career, and one that's stayed relatively injury-free. Can that continue for another 8 years, with Manning not missing games to injury? I think, and hope, they're due for some mediocre offensive years.

[red]

this will be a tight race, IF peyton can continue to play at this level, and injury free

favre has started 14 seasons up to this season (not counting his first year in atlanta where he did nothing). in that time he threw 396 td's.

for and average of 28.3 td's a year

in the 8 years up to this year that peyton has been starting, he has 244 td's.

for an average of 30.5 td's a year

however, peyton had one freak monster year where he threw 49. if you throw that year out, he averages 27.9 td's a year.

so this will be very close with an edge to peyton because of the monster year

if you take the average, minus the freak year, and multiple by 15 years. then add in the extra numbers for the freak year you get

(27.9 * 15) + 22 = 440

for brett, he will probably finish this season, his 15th, at around 420

so at this pace, peyton will have about 20 more td's then breet at the same point in their carrer

of course, breet is the ultimate iron man, can peyton do it too?

[Guiness]

It's not true that Peyton has had a superb cast around him his whole career. Does everyone forget the poreos OL he had in front of him his first couple of seasons? I remember he got sacked a pile of times.

You have to give him his due. Much as I also don't like his chicken dance antics at the line, he's also a real iron man - I don't think he's missed a start in his career.

I'd say it's a 50-50 chance he gets up there with similar numbers to Favre and Marino. He has to stay relatively injury free, and needs to keep passing for those TD's, and he has to do it for 6 or so more years.

I'm surprised some here would actually wish harm on him. We've had the good fortune that our QB has been an incredible iron man, which is a big part of the reason he's got the totals he does. Do you really begrudge it to someone else?

[Patler]

It's not true that Peyton has had a superb cast around him his whole career. Does everyone forget the poreos OL he had in front of him his first couple of seasons? I remember he got sacked a pile of times.



No, he didn't get sacked a pile of times. By year, from his rookie season, he was "tackled" (sacks and running attempts) the following number of times:
22, 14, 20, 29, 23, 18, 13, 17.
He did throw a lot more interceptions earlier in his career, perhaps to avoid the rush (28 as a roookie, then 15, 15, 23 and 19 before dropping to 10, 10 and 10 the last three seasons).

I don't recall that he was ever injured. That is to his credit, perhaps. But, we really won't know how "tough" he is until he is injured, and in all likelihood that will happen as he gets older. Can he play a whole season with a broken thumb on his throwing hand, or with any other serious injury? Time, likely, will tell as age catches up with him, too.

[ahaha]

I'm surprised some here would actually wish harm on him. We've had the good fortune that our QB has been an incredible iron man, which is a big part of the reason he's got the totals he does. Do you really begrudge it to someone else?

Yes, I begrudge it. Is that surprising? Am I in the minority? I don't want him to die or have some crippling injury. I just hope Manning gets injured and misses a few starts, maybe a bad ankle sprain or a torn knee ligament. I'm so evil. How dare I hope for such a horrible tradgedy? Normal fans don't want ailments to their team's adversaries. I'm sick and twisted. How could I want something so awful?

[motife]

It's hard to compare Manning and Favre as to what they're lifetime stats "might" end up to be.

Manning has started EVERY game since he was drafted #1 in 1998. 135 games through today. That's 8 years of 16 game seasons plus 7 this season, now in his 9th season.

Favre did not have any starts his first year with Atlanta and had 13 starts his second year, after coming to the Packers. So he started 13 games in 1992, and 16 games each season from 1993-2005 plus 7 this season or 228 starts, 247 games total as an NFL player, now in his 16th season.

Their stats are VERY similar per start :

Manning :
21.7 completions, 33.9 attempts, .98 interceptions, 1.92 TD's, 260.4 yards per game. Completions : 64.05%. Throws a TD pass once every 17.68 attempts and an interception once every 34.68 attempts.

Favre :
21.18 completions, 34.53 attempts, 1.14 interceptions, 1.78 TD's, 242.33 yards per game. Completions 61.34%. Throws a TD pass once every 19.39 attempts and an interception once every 30.28 attempts.

Manning is just slightly ahead of Favre in every category.

Favre is on pace to break Marino's TD pass record in 236.42 starts. He's just finished his 228th.

Manning is on pace to break the TD pass record in 219.44 starts, or in about one less season than Favre.

Manning must continue to be healthy and start every game of the next 84.44 games, or 5.28 years. He's 30 years old, so would be 35 when he broke the record. (born 3/24/76). Favre just turned 37 2 weeks ago.

That's quite doable, I'd think.

Is Manning going to deteriorate that much in the next 4-5 years? I don't think so. Will he be injured and miss a protracted number of games, or have a career ending injury? He has shown he's incredibly durable, almost indestructible so far.

The only thing that could sink Mannings chances is IF Favre does play at a high level, or the same level he has, for at least 4 more years. That will set the longevity bar pretty high for Manning too then. Anything less than 4 and I think Manning could reach it at the rate he's going.

I don't think supporting staff will be a problem. It wasn't for Favre.

Although, one of Wolf's stated regrets was that he didn't surround Favre with better offensive weapons.

[BallHawk]

Harrison is in last years. He is a great receiver and one of the main reasons Manning has done so well. Of course, Peyton is a phenonomal QB.

BTW, LL2, welcome to the forum.

[Guiness]

Yes, I begrudge it. Is that surprising? Am I in the minority? I don't want him to die or have some crippling injury. I just hope Manning gets injured and misses a few starts, maybe a bad ankle sprain or a torn knee ligament. I'm so evil. How dare I hope for such a horrible tradgedy? Normal fans don't want ailments to their team's adversaries. I'm sick and twisted. How could I want something so awful?

Well, I mean, wishing Urlacher to get hit by a bus is normal and all, I guess. So maybe you're ok after all.

Mebbe you could get him a Hyabusa and give him Big Ben's phone number?

[Guiness]

No, he didn't get sacked a pile of times. By year, from his rookie season, he was "tackled" (sacks and running attempts) the following number of times:
22, 14, 20, 29, 23, 18, 13, 17.
He did throw a lot more interceptions earlier in his career, perhaps to avoid the rush (28 as a roookie, then 15, 15, 23 and 19 before dropping to 10, 10 and 10 the last three seasons).

I don't recall that he was ever injured. That is to his credit, perhaps. But, we really won't know how "tough" he is until he is injured, and in all likelihood that will happen as he gets older. Can he play a whole season with a broken thumb on his throwing hand, or with any other serious injury? Time, likely, will tell as age catches up with him, too.

So that's what the tkld column means on the stats, eh? I'd wondered.

Honestly, I thought he'd had a rougher time of it than that. I knew he didn't have Carr like numbers, but it looks like he's actually had pretty good protection his whole career.