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View Full Version : "WHAT IF" BY CLIFFY CRISTL



Bretsky
11-01-2006, 12:31 AM
What if... the Packers had more success in the draft
Posted: Oct. 31, 2006


Cliff Christl
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With Brett Favre playing well and within himself, and Ahman Green running more and more like the Ahman Green of old, it's tempting to play the what-if game.

What if the Packers had been able to keep Javon Walker happy and hadn't traded him during the off-season? Would they be as good as they were in 2004 before he got hurt and they were reigning division champs?

Maybe the Packers still wouldn't be as good as Chicago, but that's not a far-fetched question. Walker would make this offense all the more potent. But, then again, if the Packers hadn't traded Walker, they might not have some of the same draft picks and maybe the offensive line wouldn't be where it is in its development. Even if they'd be better off with Walker that raises too many other what-ifs.

So let the game move on.

What if the Packers hadn't squandered an inordinate number of draft picks from 2001 to 2004 and had more three- to six-year veterans, players who should be nearing or at the top of their games, filling key roles?

Those four drafts yielded just five players who are contributing: tight end David Martin (2001), defensive end Aaron Kampman ('02), linebacker Nick Barnett ('03), defensive tackle Corey Williams ('04) and center Scott Wells ('04). Kampman and Barnett are probably playing as well as anybody on defense. But the Packers would be better off if they were in a supporting role, not a lead role.

So where did they miss out?

It would seem rather obvious that the first place to look would be the 2004 draft, Mike Sherman's disaster; the draft that yielded Ahmad Carroll in the first round; and Joey Thomas, Donnell Washington and B.J. Sander in the third round.

But here's why it's best to be wary of off-the-cuff criticisms. No question, it was a terrible draft. But the Packers didn't miss out on a lot of good players, either, at least not in the neighborhood where they drafted.

The two players chosen directly after Carroll in the first round were running back Chris Perry and linebacker Jason Babin, and neither one is a starter or probably any more advanced than Carroll at this point.

Carolina drafted another cornerback Chris Gamble next. Gamble is a solid starter. He would have been a better choice than Carroll, but he has had his ups and downs, as well, and probably is no better than either of the Packers' starting cornerbacks.

There were three more players taken over the final four picks who are starting for other teams, but, again, probably aren't any better than what the Packers have starting at those positions. Those players are wide receiver Michael Jenkins with Atlanta, running back Kevin Jones with Detroit and tight end Ben Watson with New England. The one exception might be Watson, who could be a standout in the making.

The other choice at the end of the round was wide receiver Rashaun Woods by San Francisco, and he's no longer in the league.

Eleven of the first 14 picks in the second round also are starters this season. And the Packers could use some of them.

Chris Snee appears to be emerging as a Pro Bowl guard for the New York Giants and would provide the Packers with more experience and strength at that position. Jacksonville's Daryl Smith probably would be a starter for them at strong-side linebacker. If the Packers had drafted running back Julius Jones before Dallas, they probably would have said good-bye to Green by now. And safety Bob Sanders, taken 19 spots after Carroll by Indianapolis, would be a substantial upgrade over Marquand Manuel. Center Jake Grove, drafted by Oakland with the 13th pick of the second round, is another solid starter, but in the same class as Wells.

Of the final 17 players drafted in the second round, the one who probably would fill a need for the Packers better than any other would be San Francisco cornerback Shawntae Spencer. And he'd be a nickel back.

Of the 33 draft picks in the third round that year, 16 have been starters. But other than Arizona defensive tackle Darnell Dockett, a Cullen Jenkins type; Washington's productive H-back Chris Cooley, who would be a nice fit in Coach Mike McCarthy's multiple tight end offense; and Carolina tackle Travelle Wharton, who'd be a solid backup to Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, the Packers wouldn't have had much of a need for any of them.

While the Packers blew all three of their third-round picks, they weren't the only ones making mistakes. In all, 12 of the 33 choices are either out of the league or have been waived by their original teams.

The steal of that draft was defensive end Jared Allen, taken by Kansas City with the 30th choice of the fourth round. He's already close to being a top 10 player at that position. The Packers liked him that year, had him ranked about where he was drafted, but Sherman traded away two fourth-round choices.

Two other fourth-round picks, linebacker Shaun Phillips of San Diego and cornerback Nathan Vasher of Chicago, would help the current Packers as situational players, if not starters.

In a nutshell, if the Packers had taken someone like Snee instead of Carroll; and say a Cooley and Allen as two of their third-round picks, they'd be a better team. But a threat to win the Super Bowl? Probably not.

It just wasn't that good a draft after the top 20 picks or so.

But, now, let's look at 2001.

That was the year the Packers owned the 10th choice and selected defensive end Jamal Reynolds, then followed that by taking wide receiver Robert Ferguson in the second round, and defensive back Bhawoh Jue and linebacker Torrence Marshall in the third round.

It was former general manager Ron Wolf's last draft. And there has been considerable debate about whether he was at fault or Sherman, his appointed successor, for the first two picks. Sherman had considerable influence. But it was still Wolf's call and he also liked the players who were taken.

In the bigger picture, it's inconsequential. Say Wolf had insisted on taking linebacker Dan Morgan over Reynolds, which he later said would have been his preference. And say he had chosen Wisconsin receiver Chris Chambers over Ferguson.

Morgan is a good player, but he has never played an entire season. When this season ends, he will have missed 40 of 96 games with injuries. That means if the Packers had drafted him, they would have had to line up with their backup middle linebacker in better than 40% of the games the last six seasons.

They're better off with Barnett,

Chambers is a better receiver than Ferguson, but not a difference-maker.

Still, that was a draft where the Packers should have cashed it in big. That was a draft where they had a chance to land players who might have been the foundation for several more Super Bowl runs.

Three slots after the Packers took Reynolds, Jacksonville landed defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, who also had ranked high on the Packers' board. He's one of the top five defensive tackles in the game, a complete player and a three-time Pro Bowl choice in his first five years.

In the second round, three choices after Ferguson went, Carolina drafted defensive tackle Kris Jenkins. Later in the second round, Detroit picked defensive tackle Shaun Rogers.

Jenkins had emerged as perhaps the best defensive tackle in the game before injuries cut short his last two seasons. He's back and maybe not as disruptive as he was, but he's getting close to being a top five defensive tackle again. Rogers might have been playing better than any defensive tackle in the NFC when he was recently suspended for violation of the league's drug policy.

Back in 2001, the Packers' projected starters at defensive tackle were Santana Dotson, 32 and coming off a serious quadriceps injury; and Russell Maryland, a 32-year old stopgap.

They had a need there and it was the strongest position of the draft. Pittsburgh's Casey Hampton, one of the game's premier nose tackles, was another player available. He was taken nine picks after Reynolds.

Had the Packers allowed the strength of the draft to dictate their picks, never a bad approach, they could have had Stroud and Jenkins, or Stroud and Rogers, in the first two rounds. There also was a pretty good receiver sitting there in the third round when the Packers chose Jue and Marshall with back-to-back picks. Carolina took Steve Smith, one of the most explosive players in the game, two choices later.

Put Stroud and Jenkins or Stroud and Rogers in the middle of the Packers' lineup and nobody in the league might have a better defense, the Bears included. Give the Packers Smith, as well, and there's a good chance they'd be the team to beat heading into Super Bowl XLI.

Tarlam!
11-01-2006, 12:58 AM
Let the Sherman bashing begin!

Pear-shaped so & so! :bang:

FritzDontBlitz
11-01-2006, 01:42 AM
What if the Packers had been able to keep Javon Walker happy and hadn't traded him during the off-season? Would they be as good as they were in 2004 before he got hurt and they were reigning division champs?

Maybe the Packers still wouldn't be as good as Chicago, but that's not a far-fetched question. Walker would make this offense all the more potent. But, then again, if the Packers hadn't traded Walker, they might not have some of the same draft picks and maybe the offensive line wouldn't be where it is in its development. Even if they'd be better off with Walker that raises too many other what-ifs.

let it go, cliff. jeez.


Chambers is a better receiver than Ferguson, but not a difference-maker.

cliff, you GOTTA be kidding. the only reason chris chambers isn't a difference maker for miami is because the dolphins have no offensive line at all this year. chris chamber is a solid, dependable receiver with great hands who makes spectacular grabs in the end zone. he would have been awesome next to donald driver.

ok, i got one: WHAT IF cliff christl didn't always sound like he had a bug up his ass every time he put together a column, would we take him serious then?

Bossman641
11-01-2006, 02:06 AM
While it's an interesting read, every other team could say the same exact thing. All teams miss on picks.

The thing that is most surprising to me is how bad the 2004 draft was, not just our picks but as a whole.

mmmdk
11-01-2006, 03:28 AM
I'm not high on Cliff either these days but it shows that you just don't throw draft picks away. It also shows that drafting IS the way to success. Actually, I hadn't thought that Stroud was available and was high on Packers draft board - to know that is a killer. Think 2002-03 seasons and Packers might, just might make it to the show.

If you can't learn from mistakes - you never learn. That's the good thing - learn from them and get better. Cringing about the past won't get you anywhere, you gotta re-saddle. Packers are in the process of doing the right thing, yet as Favre said: Still got a long ways to go. We'll get there alright. :razz:

Fritz
11-01-2006, 06:22 AM
What if my Dad had pulled out of my Mom right before he finished?

Then I would never have been conceived.

Oh my gosh.

On a more serious note, though: I have been happy to bash Mike Sherman the GM for quite some time, but to be fair to the guy he wasn't the GM in 2001. Wolf somehow seems to hint from time to time that he gave in to Shermy on those picks, but be that as it may it was Ron Wolf's draft. Uncle Cliffy says this yet also hedges his bet by reminding everyone that Shermy had some sway. But darn it, it was Wolf's draft and he should be given the responsibility, just as he seems to take the credit for the good picks of earlier drafts.

mmmdk
11-01-2006, 07:37 AM
What if my Dad had pulled out of my Mom right before he finished?

Then I would never have been conceived.

Oh my gosh.

Too funny :lol: BTW, did your mom only give your dad one shot at it? :hug: If not, then you wouldn't be Fritz with all the wits! I think I'll stop here - I might get on a roll or something. :mrgreen:

Sparkey
11-01-2006, 08:44 AM
What if my Dad had pulled out of my Mom right before he finished?

Then I would never have been conceived.

Oh my gosh.

Too funny :lol: BTW, did your mom only give your dad one shot at it? :hug: If not, then you wouldn't be Fritz with all the wits! I think I'll stop here - I might get on a roll or something. :mrgreen:

LOL, just reminded me of this past Friday night, up at the Skyline Comedy Cafe in Appleton. Tom Clark doing his impersonation of the first sperm to come out and hit the condom.......... Damn, I laughed my ass off!

Freak Out
11-01-2006, 11:40 AM
Do some people pay for Cliff's fomenting and BS? WTF is the point in that besides making fans go shoot themselves or former GMs and Coaches?

Hey dipshit we all understand the importance of the Packers GM and coaching staff making sound decisions ok.

Badgerinmaine
11-01-2006, 11:43 AM
Christl laments letting Walker get away, but if they'd given Javon Walker enough money to keep him happy, they might not have been able to sign Charles Woodson, or keep Aaron Kampman.

swede
11-01-2006, 12:01 PM
What if my Dad had pulled out of my Mom right before he finished?

Then I would never have been conceived.


Maybe he did--and it was the mailman that didn't!

CaptainKickass
11-01-2006, 12:39 PM
What if Cliff had my Steel Toed Boot up his ass??

Bretsky
11-01-2006, 02:06 PM
Christl laments letting Walker get away, but if they'd given Javon Walker enough money to keep him happy, they might not have been able to sign Charles Woodson, or keep Aaron Kampman.


Badger,

I thought this was a pointless article by CC; but it was interesting and figured it'd create discussion so I posted it anyways.

That being said, I don't think your above statement is accurate.

TT certainly could have attempted to do some ego massaging last year, if he chose, and worked in Javon Walker's new deal into this year's cap with Woodson and Kampman.

GB is several million dollars below the cap right now.

Cheers,
B

MJZiggy
11-01-2006, 02:20 PM
How 'bout the argument that if we keep JWalk, then TT doesn't feel the need to draft a receiver and takes a pass on Jennings...not to mention the rest of the picks he managed to wangle out of that trade.

Cleft Crusty
11-01-2006, 03:01 PM
This article really points out the value of the GM in selecting picks, and how a bad coach can undermine the great selections of a GM. Take Detroit for example. Matt Millen has assembled quite a colection of great picks, yet the coaches there were unable to mold them into winning teams. After all the experience Millen accumulated listening to basketball play-by-play guy Dick Stockton, it's a shame to have Earwig and Mariucci ruin his great drafts.

By the way, Cliffy forgot to remnid us all of how WOlf passed on Moss for Holliday. Just imagine how great the offense WOULD have been with Moss. What if - so many things to regret, so little time. WHat if I had eaten one less cheeseburger, then I might not have the sludge of transfats piling up on my artery walls.

HarveyWallbangers
11-01-2006, 04:45 PM
Christl's Blog:

McCarthy praises Favre

Coach Mike McCarthy said at his Wednesday press conference that quarterback Brett Favre was as coachable a player as he had ever been around in his 20 years of coaching. McCarthy also said that Favre, whether he knew it or not, was coaching the team's young quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Ingle Martin, through example. "Ingle Martin is getting an education of a lifetime," said McCarthy. "It's a great experience for Aaron and Ingle."

Favre and fun

Quarterback Brett Favre said people have been telling him that he appears to be having more this season, but he said that wasn't necessarily the case. "I don't know if it's more fun," said Favre. "I know the Chicago and Philadelphia games weren't any fun, but the other games we had a chance to win." That said, Favre added that he has enjoyed his young teammates and their work effort.

Honor for Kampman

Defensive end Aaron Kampman of the Packers was named NFC defensive player of the week. Quarterback Michael Vick of Atlanta was named offensive player of the week and wide receiver Sam Hurd of the Dallas Cowboys, special teams player of the week.

Praise for Wells

Coach Mike McCarthy said at his Wednesday press conference that center Scott Wells had been a model of consistency this season. "He has been so consistent that the operation up front has been as smooth as with any center I've ever been around," said McCarthy.

Different takes on Favre

Mike McCarthy, Dick Jauron and Brett Favre all offered a different view Wednesday ony why Favre's interception total is down this season. Favre has thrown five in seven games. Last year, Favre had thrown 13 after seven games, although five of them came in the seventh game.

McCarthy gave Favre the credit and said he was controlling the two things that he needed to do in order to avoid interceptions: Make good decisions and accurate throws. Jauron, coach of the Buffalo Bills, said he didn't see much difference in Favre from last year, when Jauron was coaching in Detroit. Jauron said he thought Favre was victimized by the rash of injuries the Packers suffered last year and was playing with healthier, better players this year.

Favre attributed it to several factors. 1) Not falling way behind, except for Chicago and Philadelphia, where he threw four of his five picks. 2) Some good fortune. 3) Comfort with the game plan. 4) A better running game.

Good first impression

Coach Mike McCarthy said he liked what he saw of running back P.J. Pope on his first day of practice with the Packers. The Packers signed Pope off Chicago's practice squad.

"He's an explosive young man," said McCarthy. "I like his running style. He puts his foot down. He has a one-cut mentality. I was impressed with him for the first day of practice."

A new backup center

The Packers list Jason Spitz as their backup center this week on their depth chart following the release of Chris White. Spitz was given a look at center as a junior at Louisville and took some snaps there in camp this summer, but has never played the position.

Junius Coston, who played center three of his four years at North Carolina A&T, also took some snaps at center Wednesday, but isn't listed there on the depth chart. Coston is listed only as the backup at right tackle. Nevertheless, he practiced at all three positions Wednesday: tackle, guard and center.

Partial
11-01-2006, 05:02 PM
Christl laments letting Walker get away, but if they'd given Javon Walker enough money to keep him happy, they might not have been able to sign Charles Woodson, or keep Aaron Kampman.

Right now they're sitting on 16 million cap space (8 mil is dead money). Walker would have cost about 6-7.

PackerPro42
11-01-2006, 05:25 PM
No use crying over spilt milk. Trust me, Ballhawk will jump right on that and ride it for all it's worth.

superfan
11-01-2006, 06:22 PM
What if... Green Bay had won just half of the games they lost last year by seven points or fewer.

Sherman might still be coach. AJ Hawk would not be a Packer. Bates might still be defensive coordinator. What a different season this would be.

Hard to say whether it would be :D :cool: or :shock: :evil:

Bretsky
11-01-2006, 06:25 PM
How 'bout the argument that if we keep JWalk, then TT doesn't feel the need to draft a receiver and takes a pass on Jennings...not to mention the rest of the picks he managed to wangle out of that trade.

TT by his own admission drafts the best available player. If that was Jennings we'd be pretty stellar with Walker, Driver, and Jennings.

MJZiggy
11-01-2006, 07:59 PM
But is Jennings the player we'd have taken with the next pick had we not traded JWalk and had the pick we traded available...

mraynrand
11-01-2006, 08:36 PM
Ultimately, these what if questions are like debating time travel stories. As Zig points out, once you change one variable, a whole cascade of events would change, possibly resulting in who knows what - Favre suffering a career ending injury three years ago (say it aint so!). It's fun and aggravating, but purely pointless to debate this stuff.

----------------
What if George Bailey had never been born?

"That's a lie! Harry Bailey went to war and was a hero. He saved every man on that transport."

"Harry Bailey wasn't there to save those men because you weren't there to save Harry!"

MJZiggy
11-01-2006, 08:37 PM
My favorite movie... :hrt: