motife
01-25-2007, 02:29 PM
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 10:34 p.m.
The Packers' offense vs. Manning & the Colts
How many Packers would start for the Indianapolis Colts on offense? Maybe just one if you didn't do some jockeying of positions.
The one for sure would be Mark Tauscher at right tackle over Ryan Diem. At left tackle, it might be a tossup between Tarik Glenn and Chad Clifton. But Glenn was a Pro Bowl pick this year. What you'd probably do is move either Tauscher or Diem to guard -- neither team is strong at that position -- or maybe even both if either Glenn or Clifton could play on the right side.
There are three candidates at wide receiver and all are going to the Pro Bowl: Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Donald Driver. Again, what you might do is start in a three wide receiver set with no fullback. Otherwise, Harrison and Wayne might have the edge on Driver.
At running back, Ahman Green would get his carries, but rookie Joseph Addai hjas emerged as the best back on the two teams.
That said, the Colts' offensive line isn't that much better than the Packers' line and neither are their backs. But the Colts are much deeper at receiver with Harrison, Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark vs. Driver and little else; and Peyton Manning is far superior to Brett Favre at this point.
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 10:20 p.m.
The Bears' D vs. the Packers
With Tommie Harris out, the only difference between the Chicago Bears' defense and the Packers' defense is middle linebacker Brian Urlacher. He's one of the top two or three defensive players in the game and the Packers have nobody who compares. The Packers don't have a defensive lineman in Harris' class, either, but Harris is out with an injury.
Defensive linemen? Neither Adewale Ogunleye or Alex Brown of the Bears is as good as Aaron Kampman. With Harris out, the best defensive tackle on the two teams might be Ryan Pickett. Rookie pass rusher Mark Anderson gives the Bears an advantage in depth. But if you were picking starters, you'd probably go with two Packers, Kampman at end and Pickett at tackle, and two Bears, Brown at end and Tank Johnson at tackle. And the top backups would be Anderson and the Packers' Cullen Jenkins at defensive tackle with the Packers' Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila maybe the seventh player in the rotation.
Linebackers? Urlacher stands out, but the second best defensive player on the two teams probably is Bears' weak-side linebacker Lance Briggs. Hunter Hillenmeyer would get the edge at strong-side backer over Brady Poppinga at this point, but you'd switch A.J. Hawk or Nick Barnett to the strong side and start one of them.
The secondary? Bears' cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher are younger, but a lot of people in the game probably would take Al Harris and Charles Woodson over them. At the very least, you'd start one Packer and one Bear. At safety, the Bears' Mike Brown is the best of the lot, but he's also out with an injury. Thus, you'd probably start Nick Collins of the Packers and Danieal Manning of the Bears.
One great player is what separates the two teams -- two when Tommie Harris is healthy -- but that's a huge gap to close.
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 9:51 p.m.
The '92 Packers
Lest anyone forgets the rebuilding project that Ron Wolf faced when he took over as general manager of the Green Bay Packers, here's a reminder. Joel Buchsbaum, in his ratings of NFL players prior to the 1992 season, had five Packers ranked among the top 10 at a single position or top 20 at a double position.
Sterling Sharpe was rated the second best wide receiver; Chris Jacke, sixth among kickers; Rich Moran, 10th at guard; Ken Ruettgers, 16th at tackle; and Tony Bennett, 16th at linebacker.
Buchsbaum was closely connected to numerous GMs, coaches and scouts, and his ratings generally reflected a consensus of league thought.
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 3:38 p.m.
More on the 16th pick
What have been the best 16th picks in the draft since the merger? Here's my top five.
1 - Jerry Rice, WR, 1985
2 - Jevon Kearse, DE, 1999
3 - Troy Polamalu, S, 2003
4 - Russ Francis, TE, 1975
5 - Chester McGlockton, NT, 1992
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 3:34 p.m.
More on Tom Brady
Bill Belichick's record as head coach in games that Tom Brady didn't start is 42-58, a .420 winning percentage. Belichick's playoff record without Brady is 1-1.
Belichick's record in regular-season games that Brady has started is 70-24, a .745 winning percentage. Belichick's playoff record with Brady is 12-2.
Some sixth-round draft pick.
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 3:23 p.m.
The 16th pick
The Green Bay Packers won Super Bowl XXXI when Brett Favre was 27 years old and at the top of his game; Reggie White was still one of the top four or five defenders in the game; and LeRoy Butler was another defensive playmaker. When the Packers won the Super Bowl in 1996, it had been 29 years since the last time they won it. And their 1967 team had seven Hall of Famers, including a quarterback, Bart Starr.
Anyone who thinks the Packers are going to win another Super Bowl any time soon without finding new players the caliber of Favre or White or Starr or Ray Nitschke are living a pipedream.
So what are the chances of the Packers landing a great player with the 16th pick in this year's draft?
To this point, not one of the players selected 16th in the first 39 years of the common draft has been selected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. That will soon change. Jerry Rice was drafted 16th in 1985 and he'll become a Hall of Famer as soon as he's eligible three years from now.
Actually, the odds of picking a Hall of Famer are pretty slim for any team drafting from 11th through 20th. There have been only six players drafted in those slots who have made the Hall: Alan Page (15th, 1967), Gene Upshaw (17th, 1967), Jack Youngblood (20th, 1971), Franco Harris (13th, 1972), Kellen Winslow (13th, 1979) and Jim Kelly (14th, 1983). Another four to eight players drafted from 11th to 20th figure to be elected in the relatively near future, including Rice, Emmitt Smith, Warren Sapp and Marvin Harrison.
That's out of 390 players. In other words, the Packers have about a 2 to 3% chance of landing a Hall of Fame player in the first round this year. Of course, three-time Super Bowl champion New England found its Hall of Famer and star player in the sixth round. But when Tom Brady enters the Hall, he'll probably be the first sixth rounder to be elected from the years since the merger. At least, no sixth round pick has been selected yet.
Twenty-five players drafted first through 10th since 1967 have made the Hall and at least another 20 are likely to make it in the future. Thus, teams drafting in the top 10 have about an 11% chance of selecting a Hall of Fame player.
The choice of Philbin
Joe Philbin might not have looked the part of an offensive line coach. He looked more like a marathoner or a one-time first sacker or maybe someone who was one of those all elbows and knees garbage players on a high school basketball team 25 years or so ago.
But it didn't matter. He was well respected by his players. Philbin was as low-key as former offensive line coach Larry Beightol was volatile. But some of the offensive linemen developed a keen appreciation for Philbin's knowledge of the game and his ability to communicate and teach it.
With Mike McCarthy essentially running the offense and calling the plays, Philbin seems to be a good fit as offensive coordinator. He isn't likely to have his ego bruised or make a grab for more power; and that's important. At the same time, his knowledge and voice are respected in the locker room.
The Packers' offense vs. Manning & the Colts
How many Packers would start for the Indianapolis Colts on offense? Maybe just one if you didn't do some jockeying of positions.
The one for sure would be Mark Tauscher at right tackle over Ryan Diem. At left tackle, it might be a tossup between Tarik Glenn and Chad Clifton. But Glenn was a Pro Bowl pick this year. What you'd probably do is move either Tauscher or Diem to guard -- neither team is strong at that position -- or maybe even both if either Glenn or Clifton could play on the right side.
There are three candidates at wide receiver and all are going to the Pro Bowl: Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Donald Driver. Again, what you might do is start in a three wide receiver set with no fullback. Otherwise, Harrison and Wayne might have the edge on Driver.
At running back, Ahman Green would get his carries, but rookie Joseph Addai hjas emerged as the best back on the two teams.
That said, the Colts' offensive line isn't that much better than the Packers' line and neither are their backs. But the Colts are much deeper at receiver with Harrison, Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark vs. Driver and little else; and Peyton Manning is far superior to Brett Favre at this point.
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 10:20 p.m.
The Bears' D vs. the Packers
With Tommie Harris out, the only difference between the Chicago Bears' defense and the Packers' defense is middle linebacker Brian Urlacher. He's one of the top two or three defensive players in the game and the Packers have nobody who compares. The Packers don't have a defensive lineman in Harris' class, either, but Harris is out with an injury.
Defensive linemen? Neither Adewale Ogunleye or Alex Brown of the Bears is as good as Aaron Kampman. With Harris out, the best defensive tackle on the two teams might be Ryan Pickett. Rookie pass rusher Mark Anderson gives the Bears an advantage in depth. But if you were picking starters, you'd probably go with two Packers, Kampman at end and Pickett at tackle, and two Bears, Brown at end and Tank Johnson at tackle. And the top backups would be Anderson and the Packers' Cullen Jenkins at defensive tackle with the Packers' Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila maybe the seventh player in the rotation.
Linebackers? Urlacher stands out, but the second best defensive player on the two teams probably is Bears' weak-side linebacker Lance Briggs. Hunter Hillenmeyer would get the edge at strong-side backer over Brady Poppinga at this point, but you'd switch A.J. Hawk or Nick Barnett to the strong side and start one of them.
The secondary? Bears' cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher are younger, but a lot of people in the game probably would take Al Harris and Charles Woodson over them. At the very least, you'd start one Packer and one Bear. At safety, the Bears' Mike Brown is the best of the lot, but he's also out with an injury. Thus, you'd probably start Nick Collins of the Packers and Danieal Manning of the Bears.
One great player is what separates the two teams -- two when Tommie Harris is healthy -- but that's a huge gap to close.
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 9:51 p.m.
The '92 Packers
Lest anyone forgets the rebuilding project that Ron Wolf faced when he took over as general manager of the Green Bay Packers, here's a reminder. Joel Buchsbaum, in his ratings of NFL players prior to the 1992 season, had five Packers ranked among the top 10 at a single position or top 20 at a double position.
Sterling Sharpe was rated the second best wide receiver; Chris Jacke, sixth among kickers; Rich Moran, 10th at guard; Ken Ruettgers, 16th at tackle; and Tony Bennett, 16th at linebacker.
Buchsbaum was closely connected to numerous GMs, coaches and scouts, and his ratings generally reflected a consensus of league thought.
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 3:38 p.m.
More on the 16th pick
What have been the best 16th picks in the draft since the merger? Here's my top five.
1 - Jerry Rice, WR, 1985
2 - Jevon Kearse, DE, 1999
3 - Troy Polamalu, S, 2003
4 - Russ Francis, TE, 1975
5 - Chester McGlockton, NT, 1992
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 3:34 p.m.
More on Tom Brady
Bill Belichick's record as head coach in games that Tom Brady didn't start is 42-58, a .420 winning percentage. Belichick's playoff record without Brady is 1-1.
Belichick's record in regular-season games that Brady has started is 70-24, a .745 winning percentage. Belichick's playoff record with Brady is 12-2.
Some sixth-round draft pick.
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24, 2007, 3:23 p.m.
The 16th pick
The Green Bay Packers won Super Bowl XXXI when Brett Favre was 27 years old and at the top of his game; Reggie White was still one of the top four or five defenders in the game; and LeRoy Butler was another defensive playmaker. When the Packers won the Super Bowl in 1996, it had been 29 years since the last time they won it. And their 1967 team had seven Hall of Famers, including a quarterback, Bart Starr.
Anyone who thinks the Packers are going to win another Super Bowl any time soon without finding new players the caliber of Favre or White or Starr or Ray Nitschke are living a pipedream.
So what are the chances of the Packers landing a great player with the 16th pick in this year's draft?
To this point, not one of the players selected 16th in the first 39 years of the common draft has been selected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. That will soon change. Jerry Rice was drafted 16th in 1985 and he'll become a Hall of Famer as soon as he's eligible three years from now.
Actually, the odds of picking a Hall of Famer are pretty slim for any team drafting from 11th through 20th. There have been only six players drafted in those slots who have made the Hall: Alan Page (15th, 1967), Gene Upshaw (17th, 1967), Jack Youngblood (20th, 1971), Franco Harris (13th, 1972), Kellen Winslow (13th, 1979) and Jim Kelly (14th, 1983). Another four to eight players drafted from 11th to 20th figure to be elected in the relatively near future, including Rice, Emmitt Smith, Warren Sapp and Marvin Harrison.
That's out of 390 players. In other words, the Packers have about a 2 to 3% chance of landing a Hall of Fame player in the first round this year. Of course, three-time Super Bowl champion New England found its Hall of Famer and star player in the sixth round. But when Tom Brady enters the Hall, he'll probably be the first sixth rounder to be elected from the years since the merger. At least, no sixth round pick has been selected yet.
Twenty-five players drafted first through 10th since 1967 have made the Hall and at least another 20 are likely to make it in the future. Thus, teams drafting in the top 10 have about an 11% chance of selecting a Hall of Fame player.
The choice of Philbin
Joe Philbin might not have looked the part of an offensive line coach. He looked more like a marathoner or a one-time first sacker or maybe someone who was one of those all elbows and knees garbage players on a high school basketball team 25 years or so ago.
But it didn't matter. He was well respected by his players. Philbin was as low-key as former offensive line coach Larry Beightol was volatile. But some of the offensive linemen developed a keen appreciation for Philbin's knowledge of the game and his ability to communicate and teach it.
With Mike McCarthy essentially running the offense and calling the plays, Philbin seems to be a good fit as offensive coordinator. He isn't likely to have his ego bruised or make a grab for more power; and that's important. At the same time, his knowledge and voice are respected in the locker room.