woodbuck27
03-05-2007, 12:25 PM
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/10038014
Mock draft No. 1
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
Note: Pat Kirwan will update his mock draft on Mondays between now and the April 28-29 draft.
(March 4, 2007) -- There is no doubt that mock drafts will change many times in the next 50 days leading up to the draft. Free-agent signings like Eric Steinbach in Cleveland changes the need board for the Browns and Bengals. There will still be terminations and retirements that will change the value of certain players on draft boards, but now is as good a time as any to put the first mock draft up even though the personal workouts for many of the top draft picks are just starting to happen.
One interesting component of this draft will be the upward pressure by certain teams with a desire to move up in the draft. With a number of quality players at the top of draft boards, extra salary cap space and 17 new head coaches over the past two years, a number of clubs are thinking about putting a proposal together to move north before the April draft. Trading draft picks in the first round is a growing trend in the NFL and I could see a few big deals finalized before the draft. The desire by a few teams to get up for a player like Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas should make the next few weeks very interesting.
1. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU -- Rule one in draft logic is don't pass on a franchise quarterback even if you have a few position players with a slightly higher grade. Every time someone brings up a wide receiver or tackle, go back and watch Russell against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.
2. Detroit: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame -- The popular opinion on the street is Quinn is falling, but couldn't that talk be started by a few teams down below that would love to have him fall? The kid is big, strong, fast and threw 95 touchdown passes in college. If the Lions don't want him, when will they be in position to take a better quarterback prospect in the future? Getting Tatum Bell, George Foster and Dwayne White on the roster during the first weekend of free agency should mean Joe Thomas and Adrian Peterson are out of their plans.
3. Cleveland: Joe Thomas, T, Wisconsin -- Thomas is the best tackle in the draft and Browns general manager Phil Savage took Jonathan Ogden in the same position back in his Baltimore days. What good is paying for guard Eric Steinbech if the left tackle can't block?
4. Tampa Bay: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech -- Johnson could be the top-rated player on most draft boards and he should make an immediate impact. How does 70 receptions and 10 touchdowns sound for a rookie wide receiver?
5. Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson -- The Cardinals were so lucky when Matt Leinart fell to them last year and now they have the best defensive end fall to them. If by chance Gaines is gone, Arizona can always select Arkansas defensive end Jamaal Anderson. The Cardinals can't lose here but they might consider jumping up for Joe Thomas to protect Leinart.
6. Washington: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan -- Big 325-pound men who can move are hard to find and Branch shores up the run defense right away. He also has the quickness to help the ailing pass rush by collapsing the pocket. Jamaal Anderson will be very tempting here if available.
7. Minnesota: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas -- With Pat and Kevin Williams inside, Anderson will get single blocked all year and put up some big numbers. A receiver might be tempting but defensive ends are too hard to find. I bet the Vikings have their eye on a receiver in the second round.
8. Houston: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma -- There is still a chance the Texans trade for a running back -- maybe a Ladell Betts -- but if they don't, Peterson is the class of the running backs in the draft. If Houston trades for a runner or signs one in free agency, then Penn State tackle Levi Brown is a smart choice.
9. Miami: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville -- Okoye plays like Warren Sapp. He has great first-step quickness and he's only 19 years old, which is a good thing for an aging Dolphin defense. Miami could take a long look at tight end Greg Olsen, who is rising up the draft boards.
Miami's aging defense would get an infusion of youth by drafting Amobi Okoye.
10. Atlanta: LaRon Landry, S, LSU -- The Falcons need a safety and Landry is the complete package. If he's still on the board when Atlanta selects, this decision will take under 30 seconds.
11. San Francisco: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska -- Mike Nolan is building a very good football team with high-character guys. The Niners just signed Aubrayo Franklin, a nose tackle from the Ravens, so Carrikier gives them the flexibility to play the 3-4 or 4-3 defense. He is a Nolan kind of player.
12. Buffalo: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California -- Whether Willis McGahee gets traded or not, it is time for the Bills to get a new back. The Bills are using free agency to grab offensive linemen, and if they go with Lynch, McGahee could be traded on draft day. Buffalo does need defensive help after losing London Fletcher and Nate Clements in free agency, but it is probably too high in the draft to take Mississippi linebacker Patrick Willis, so a trade, free agency and the rest of the draft will be used to solve those problems.
comment woodbuck27:
Take a look for when the next RB is slated to go.
13. St. Louis: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan -- St. Louis could go in a few directions, but wide receiver is out now that Drew Bennett has been signed in free agency. Once Hall ran under 4.4 in the 40-yard dash, he probably set himself up as a top corner. A few coaches have told me they like other corners in this draft so it could be someone else. Trading for defensive end James Hall turns the focus to the secondary.
14. Carolina: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi -- Dan Morgan has injury issues and the defense struggled without Will Witherspoon so the answer is Willis, a tackling machine who ran 4.5 in the 40 at 240 pounds. Some will say Willis has slipped on a number of draft boards and Carolina could turn their interest to safety or left tackle.
15. Pittsburgh: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State -- Joey Porter is gone and Posluszny probably reminds the Rooney family of Andy Russell and Jack Ham. Whether the Steelers stay in the 3-4 defense or move to the 4-3, Posluszny fits.
16. Green Bay: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State -- Let's say the Packers are serious about trading for Randy Moss, then at least we know wide receiver is a priority. Ginn can fly, and opposite Donald Driver, he will stretch the field.
17. Jacksonville: Michael Griffin, S, Texas -- It would have been interesting to see what the Jags would have done if Brady Quinn were still on the board, but he's long gone and the discussion could be about the best safeties left. That should lead them to Griffin, who can play many roles for Jack Del Rio's defense.
18. Cincinnati: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh -- A bit of an unknown right now because he's a junior and he did not work at the Combine, which is frustrating. But when the work is done by the Bengals staff, they will discover this kid is a nice fit for them. There will be discussions about Fresno corner Marcus McCauley, too. If one of the top two safeties or defense linemen are still on the board, the Bengals could go in that direction. Cincinnati will go defense and the player will have no off-the-field issues.
19. Tennessee: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC -- Offensive coordinator Norm Chow gets a receiver that speaks his language and will become the go-to target for Vince Young. Jarrett will win a rebound in the red zone and score, and that's just what the young quarterback needs. Drew Bennett is now a Ram, so the cornerback issues wait until next round.
20. N.Y. Giants: Levi Brown, T, Penn State -- The Giants let Luke Petitgout go and shuffled the line around. If Brown falls to this spot, he's a perfect fit for the Giants' future. For Eli Manning, a left tackle is critical. The Giants could be serious about a cornerback also, especially with Texas' Aaron Ross and Arkansas' Chris Houston still on the board.
21. Denver: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida -- The Broncos are after Patrick Kerney in free agency and there is still room for both players. With the corner tandem in Denver of Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly, a good pass rush will make the Broncos hard to beat. Trading for Dan Wilkinson gives them some depth at defensive tackle. There has to be some discussion about USC center Ryan Kalil, who would be a great transition player when Tom Nalen retires.
22. Dallas: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas -- Move Anthony Henry to safety and draft a corner is a good plan for Dallas. The front seven on defense are close to being excellent and the return of Greg Ellis will ensure enough pass pressure to win if the corners can hold up. Houston can fly and he is rising up every draft board. If he's gone, then Texas corner Aaron Ross could be the pick.
Note: Robert Meachem's impressive showing at the Combine raised his draft stock.
23. Kansas City: Robert Meacham, WR, Tennessee -- Meacham was impressive at the Combine and the Chiefs need some youthful speed opposite Tony Gonzalez.
24. New England: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU -- I could see the Patriots going in a different direction, but the signing of Adalius Thomas was a big move for the defense. The Patriots have always liked guys from LSU and this kid loves to play the game.
25. N.Y. Jets: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State -- McCauley will get some competition from Aaron Ross (Texas) but either one will help the Jets secondary. I would be tempted to take tight end Greg Olsen if he's still available. Chad Pennington will know how to get him the ball and his workouts have pushed him up draft boards.
26. Philadelphia: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas -- The run on corners has been on during the second half of the first round and the Eagles could use one, as well as a safety and a linebacker.
27. New Orleans: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami -- The Saints need a corner badly, but the run on them in the first round has left New Orleans in a situation where Olsen is the most attractive player left. The Saints offense will be close to unstoppable with a tight end threat down the middle of the field. Drew Brees made a living getting the ball to Antonio Gates when he was the Chargers quarterback.
28. New England: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida -- With two picks in the first round and Adalius Thomas and Kyle Brady already in the fold through free agency, it's time for New England to look to the future. Rodney Harrison has trouble staying healthy so Nelson would be a good fit.
29. Baltimore: Michael Bush, RB, Louisville -- Sure, Baltimore has to replace Adalius Thomas and could look to a guy like defensive end Anthony Spencer from Purdue. But if Bush is close to ready, the Ravens can replace Jamal Lewis if he goes elsewhere.
30. San Diego: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami -- The Chargers addressed their guard needs by re-signing Kris Dielman, so with this pick they take the best safety still on the board.
31. Chicago: Joe Staley, T, Central Michigan -- The Bears' tackles are not youngsters and Staley is a fine athlete who could play for a long time.
32. Indianapolis: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State -- Cato June is out in free agency and Rob Morris filled in at the other linebacker spot. Timmons was shorter and slower than advertised at the Combine, but he can play the game the way Indy likes to play defense. They could consider reaching for a big defensive tackle in this spot since they released Montae Reagor.
Other names that could be called in the first round when April rolls around: Ryan Kalil, C, USC; Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue; Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia; Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn.
Mock draft No. 1
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
Note: Pat Kirwan will update his mock draft on Mondays between now and the April 28-29 draft.
(March 4, 2007) -- There is no doubt that mock drafts will change many times in the next 50 days leading up to the draft. Free-agent signings like Eric Steinbach in Cleveland changes the need board for the Browns and Bengals. There will still be terminations and retirements that will change the value of certain players on draft boards, but now is as good a time as any to put the first mock draft up even though the personal workouts for many of the top draft picks are just starting to happen.
One interesting component of this draft will be the upward pressure by certain teams with a desire to move up in the draft. With a number of quality players at the top of draft boards, extra salary cap space and 17 new head coaches over the past two years, a number of clubs are thinking about putting a proposal together to move north before the April draft. Trading draft picks in the first round is a growing trend in the NFL and I could see a few big deals finalized before the draft. The desire by a few teams to get up for a player like Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas should make the next few weeks very interesting.
1. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU -- Rule one in draft logic is don't pass on a franchise quarterback even if you have a few position players with a slightly higher grade. Every time someone brings up a wide receiver or tackle, go back and watch Russell against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.
2. Detroit: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame -- The popular opinion on the street is Quinn is falling, but couldn't that talk be started by a few teams down below that would love to have him fall? The kid is big, strong, fast and threw 95 touchdown passes in college. If the Lions don't want him, when will they be in position to take a better quarterback prospect in the future? Getting Tatum Bell, George Foster and Dwayne White on the roster during the first weekend of free agency should mean Joe Thomas and Adrian Peterson are out of their plans.
3. Cleveland: Joe Thomas, T, Wisconsin -- Thomas is the best tackle in the draft and Browns general manager Phil Savage took Jonathan Ogden in the same position back in his Baltimore days. What good is paying for guard Eric Steinbech if the left tackle can't block?
4. Tampa Bay: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech -- Johnson could be the top-rated player on most draft boards and he should make an immediate impact. How does 70 receptions and 10 touchdowns sound for a rookie wide receiver?
5. Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson -- The Cardinals were so lucky when Matt Leinart fell to them last year and now they have the best defensive end fall to them. If by chance Gaines is gone, Arizona can always select Arkansas defensive end Jamaal Anderson. The Cardinals can't lose here but they might consider jumping up for Joe Thomas to protect Leinart.
6. Washington: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan -- Big 325-pound men who can move are hard to find and Branch shores up the run defense right away. He also has the quickness to help the ailing pass rush by collapsing the pocket. Jamaal Anderson will be very tempting here if available.
7. Minnesota: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas -- With Pat and Kevin Williams inside, Anderson will get single blocked all year and put up some big numbers. A receiver might be tempting but defensive ends are too hard to find. I bet the Vikings have their eye on a receiver in the second round.
8. Houston: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma -- There is still a chance the Texans trade for a running back -- maybe a Ladell Betts -- but if they don't, Peterson is the class of the running backs in the draft. If Houston trades for a runner or signs one in free agency, then Penn State tackle Levi Brown is a smart choice.
9. Miami: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville -- Okoye plays like Warren Sapp. He has great first-step quickness and he's only 19 years old, which is a good thing for an aging Dolphin defense. Miami could take a long look at tight end Greg Olsen, who is rising up the draft boards.
Miami's aging defense would get an infusion of youth by drafting Amobi Okoye.
10. Atlanta: LaRon Landry, S, LSU -- The Falcons need a safety and Landry is the complete package. If he's still on the board when Atlanta selects, this decision will take under 30 seconds.
11. San Francisco: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska -- Mike Nolan is building a very good football team with high-character guys. The Niners just signed Aubrayo Franklin, a nose tackle from the Ravens, so Carrikier gives them the flexibility to play the 3-4 or 4-3 defense. He is a Nolan kind of player.
12. Buffalo: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California -- Whether Willis McGahee gets traded or not, it is time for the Bills to get a new back. The Bills are using free agency to grab offensive linemen, and if they go with Lynch, McGahee could be traded on draft day. Buffalo does need defensive help after losing London Fletcher and Nate Clements in free agency, but it is probably too high in the draft to take Mississippi linebacker Patrick Willis, so a trade, free agency and the rest of the draft will be used to solve those problems.
comment woodbuck27:
Take a look for when the next RB is slated to go.
13. St. Louis: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan -- St. Louis could go in a few directions, but wide receiver is out now that Drew Bennett has been signed in free agency. Once Hall ran under 4.4 in the 40-yard dash, he probably set himself up as a top corner. A few coaches have told me they like other corners in this draft so it could be someone else. Trading for defensive end James Hall turns the focus to the secondary.
14. Carolina: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi -- Dan Morgan has injury issues and the defense struggled without Will Witherspoon so the answer is Willis, a tackling machine who ran 4.5 in the 40 at 240 pounds. Some will say Willis has slipped on a number of draft boards and Carolina could turn their interest to safety or left tackle.
15. Pittsburgh: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State -- Joey Porter is gone and Posluszny probably reminds the Rooney family of Andy Russell and Jack Ham. Whether the Steelers stay in the 3-4 defense or move to the 4-3, Posluszny fits.
16. Green Bay: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State -- Let's say the Packers are serious about trading for Randy Moss, then at least we know wide receiver is a priority. Ginn can fly, and opposite Donald Driver, he will stretch the field.
17. Jacksonville: Michael Griffin, S, Texas -- It would have been interesting to see what the Jags would have done if Brady Quinn were still on the board, but he's long gone and the discussion could be about the best safeties left. That should lead them to Griffin, who can play many roles for Jack Del Rio's defense.
18. Cincinnati: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh -- A bit of an unknown right now because he's a junior and he did not work at the Combine, which is frustrating. But when the work is done by the Bengals staff, they will discover this kid is a nice fit for them. There will be discussions about Fresno corner Marcus McCauley, too. If one of the top two safeties or defense linemen are still on the board, the Bengals could go in that direction. Cincinnati will go defense and the player will have no off-the-field issues.
19. Tennessee: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC -- Offensive coordinator Norm Chow gets a receiver that speaks his language and will become the go-to target for Vince Young. Jarrett will win a rebound in the red zone and score, and that's just what the young quarterback needs. Drew Bennett is now a Ram, so the cornerback issues wait until next round.
20. N.Y. Giants: Levi Brown, T, Penn State -- The Giants let Luke Petitgout go and shuffled the line around. If Brown falls to this spot, he's a perfect fit for the Giants' future. For Eli Manning, a left tackle is critical. The Giants could be serious about a cornerback also, especially with Texas' Aaron Ross and Arkansas' Chris Houston still on the board.
21. Denver: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida -- The Broncos are after Patrick Kerney in free agency and there is still room for both players. With the corner tandem in Denver of Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly, a good pass rush will make the Broncos hard to beat. Trading for Dan Wilkinson gives them some depth at defensive tackle. There has to be some discussion about USC center Ryan Kalil, who would be a great transition player when Tom Nalen retires.
22. Dallas: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas -- Move Anthony Henry to safety and draft a corner is a good plan for Dallas. The front seven on defense are close to being excellent and the return of Greg Ellis will ensure enough pass pressure to win if the corners can hold up. Houston can fly and he is rising up every draft board. If he's gone, then Texas corner Aaron Ross could be the pick.
Note: Robert Meachem's impressive showing at the Combine raised his draft stock.
23. Kansas City: Robert Meacham, WR, Tennessee -- Meacham was impressive at the Combine and the Chiefs need some youthful speed opposite Tony Gonzalez.
24. New England: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU -- I could see the Patriots going in a different direction, but the signing of Adalius Thomas was a big move for the defense. The Patriots have always liked guys from LSU and this kid loves to play the game.
25. N.Y. Jets: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State -- McCauley will get some competition from Aaron Ross (Texas) but either one will help the Jets secondary. I would be tempted to take tight end Greg Olsen if he's still available. Chad Pennington will know how to get him the ball and his workouts have pushed him up draft boards.
26. Philadelphia: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas -- The run on corners has been on during the second half of the first round and the Eagles could use one, as well as a safety and a linebacker.
27. New Orleans: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami -- The Saints need a corner badly, but the run on them in the first round has left New Orleans in a situation where Olsen is the most attractive player left. The Saints offense will be close to unstoppable with a tight end threat down the middle of the field. Drew Brees made a living getting the ball to Antonio Gates when he was the Chargers quarterback.
28. New England: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida -- With two picks in the first round and Adalius Thomas and Kyle Brady already in the fold through free agency, it's time for New England to look to the future. Rodney Harrison has trouble staying healthy so Nelson would be a good fit.
29. Baltimore: Michael Bush, RB, Louisville -- Sure, Baltimore has to replace Adalius Thomas and could look to a guy like defensive end Anthony Spencer from Purdue. But if Bush is close to ready, the Ravens can replace Jamal Lewis if he goes elsewhere.
30. San Diego: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami -- The Chargers addressed their guard needs by re-signing Kris Dielman, so with this pick they take the best safety still on the board.
31. Chicago: Joe Staley, T, Central Michigan -- The Bears' tackles are not youngsters and Staley is a fine athlete who could play for a long time.
32. Indianapolis: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State -- Cato June is out in free agency and Rob Morris filled in at the other linebacker spot. Timmons was shorter and slower than advertised at the Combine, but he can play the game the way Indy likes to play defense. They could consider reaching for a big defensive tackle in this spot since they released Montae Reagor.
Other names that could be called in the first round when April rolls around: Ryan Kalil, C, USC; Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue; Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia; Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn.