gbpackfan
03-08-2007, 08:09 PM
Throwing a wet blanket on FA - realgm.com
One of my New Year's resolutions for 2007 is to be a more positive person, to revel in the optimism and not dwell on the negative. And through the first two months I was doing real well in keeping to my resolution.
Sadly, the NFL free agent period has caused me to slide back into my old ways. I've rediscovered one of my all-time favorite mantras, courtesy of great NBA coach Chuck Daly, "A pessimist is an optimist with experience." Experience has taught me that right now, many fans of many teams are overboard in chest-puffing optimism after recent free agent signings.
Take the case of Leonard Davis, the enigmatic tackle who left the Cardinals and signed a 7 year, $50 million dollar contract with the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas faithful are treating this signing like it's a major upgrade, but I think this is one of the most baffling large contracts of all time. The Cardinals have had one of the worst offensive lines in the league during Davis' tenure, and the former 2nd overall draft pick has been widely considered a major disappointment. The Cards made little effort to try and re-sign the man they invested so much hard work and years of development in spite of their glaring need for linemen. Just last November the Cowboys blitzed Davis for a sack, 4 recorded QB pressures, and two penalties. That was probably Davis' worst game of the year, but in his 8 career seasons Davis has been inadequate enough at tackle that the OL-desperate Cards tried him at guard to similar underwhelming results. Yet the Cowboys reward his frustrating apathy towards improvement with nearly $19M in guaranteed money, and plug him into their talented offense as the starting right tackle. To be fair to Davis, he has (amazingly) made three Pro Bowls and has developed as a pretty fair hole opener in the running game, and being a part of a more skilled overall offense might push Davis to the next level. But I wouldn't bet on it, certainly not $50 million dollars and Super Bowl aspirations.
Or the case of Dewayne White, a DE you've almost assuredly never heard of. He toiled in anonymity in Tampa Bay for 4 seasons, recording 14 total sacks. His 2006 stats: 43 tackles and 5 sacks, both career highs and indicative of nothing more than an adequate starter. The Detroit Lions signed White to a 5 year, $29M contract after dealing the man he's replacing, James Hall, for a 5th round draft pick. Consider that Hall's worst season in the last 4 years was 2006, when in just 7 games he netted 25 tackles and 5 sacks. White is a disciple of Lions coach Rod Marinelli from when he coached the Tampa Bay defensive line, and he has shown brief flashes of being the type of player Hall was in 2004, when Hall chalked up 11.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and swatted down 5 passes. Very brief flashes of being above-average gets White almost $6M per year, and many Detroit fans are pretty optimistic (as optimistic as any Lions fan can reasonably be, given the malaise of the franchise) that White can blossom in the silver and blue. I know James Hall was not a good scheme fit for the Lions, but I'm willing to wager he records more sacks and tackles in St. Louis than White puts up in Detroit this coming season. And Hall only cost the Rams a 5th round draft pick, which the Lions will almost certainly squander on a career backup.
But the fans of the San Francisco 49ers are the Kool Aid drinkers who are setting themselves up for a agonizing fall. The Niners signed the top CB on the market, former Buffalo Bills Nate Clements, to the richest deal for a corner in NFL history. They gave Clements $80M over 8 years, or almost $16M and 2 seasons more than the reported next-best offer (from his hometown Browns). Later on, San Fran opened the checkbook for Eagles safety Michael Lewis, former Ravens backup DT Aubrayo Franklin, former Falcons WR Ashley Leile, and former Patriots LB Tully Banta-Cain. They had nearly $30 million in salary cap room for 2007, and according to the figures I've seen, these new deals and a couple of extensions to current players soak up nearly every penny. Clements is indeed a very talented cover man and one of the best run support corners in the game, and I have no doubt he'll make a strong impact on the oft-wretched 49ers pass defense. But is he deserving of the richest positional contract in NFL history--no chance. Lewis ended 2006 on the Eagles bench, thanks to his poor pass defense and lack of range. He is a former Pro Bowler (emphasis on former) and he still represents an upgrade, but ask any Eagles fan if they'll miss Lewis and once they are done cursing and drinking, they'll say good riddance. Franklin is a career backup DT who has netted 40 career tackles in 36 career games. That's right, he averages one tackle per game, slightly less than Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski. Leile is a former 1st round pick who was benched by the WR-desperate Falcons for being a terrible blocker, unable to run any patterns except streaks, and a sourpuss in the locker room. He replaces Antonio Bryant in the 49ers lineup, whom they let go because he was an apathetic blocker, unwilling to run pattersn across the middle, and a cancer in the locker room (as well as having a drug problem). Banta-Cain was a situational pass rushing OLB with the Patriots who, despite given ample opportunity, never impressed the New England brass he was an every down player. Call me crazy, but I'll trust the talent evaluation of the Patriots over the 49ers. Yet the 49er faithful are already ordering NFC West Champs t-shirts and gloating about the "greatest offseason in NFL history", to quote one message board sycophant. They'll be better, but other than Clements and perhaps a rejuvenated season or two from Lewis, the Niners didn't stack their deck but merely shuffled it. Their improvement will be far more dependant on the progress of their young core players and not these new acquisitions.
Some other signings I think are causing way too much optimism include RB Ahman Green in Houston, the trade and subsequent contract extension of RB Thomas Jones from the Bears to the Jets, Tampa Bay bringing in average LT Luke Petitgout and his compound leg fracture for Pro Bowler money, and WR Dennis Northcutt in Jacksonville. Those guys are all capable players of varying degrees, but other than perhaps Jones, none will represent much, if any, upgrade over the status quo.
In desperately clinging to my resolution, there are a few signings I really like and think will have very positive impacts. The Browns signing G Eric Steinbach, the Seahawks bringing in DE Patrick Kerney, the Broncos picking up RB Travis Henry, the Cardinals signing former Dallas C Al Johnson on the cheap, and the Saints taking a low-risk chance on LB Brian Simmons are all solid moves. I think the Patriots grossly overpaid for prized LB Adalius Thomas, but he's at least an impact player with great versatility and a major upgrade over the departed Banta-Cain. I like the move the Cowboys made in replacing backup QB Drew Bledsoe with Brad Johnson, who will mentor Tony Romo instead of tormenting him. WR Drew Bennett could be a very good signing for the Rams, who are losing talented WR Kevin Curtis.
Honestly I hate being the bearer of bad tiding, but as a Cleveland native and lifelong Lions fan, I am a strong adherent to Chuck Daly's mantra. Curb your enthusiasm for the free agent signings until you see how it actually works out. After all, last offseason the Browns were widely regarded as having one of the greatest free agent classes in history. Thanks in part to devastating injuries to a couple of those prominent signees, the Browns regressed by 2 games. That plays into my other New Year's resolution, which was to drink more alcohol. Cheers!
One of my New Year's resolutions for 2007 is to be a more positive person, to revel in the optimism and not dwell on the negative. And through the first two months I was doing real well in keeping to my resolution.
Sadly, the NFL free agent period has caused me to slide back into my old ways. I've rediscovered one of my all-time favorite mantras, courtesy of great NBA coach Chuck Daly, "A pessimist is an optimist with experience." Experience has taught me that right now, many fans of many teams are overboard in chest-puffing optimism after recent free agent signings.
Take the case of Leonard Davis, the enigmatic tackle who left the Cardinals and signed a 7 year, $50 million dollar contract with the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas faithful are treating this signing like it's a major upgrade, but I think this is one of the most baffling large contracts of all time. The Cardinals have had one of the worst offensive lines in the league during Davis' tenure, and the former 2nd overall draft pick has been widely considered a major disappointment. The Cards made little effort to try and re-sign the man they invested so much hard work and years of development in spite of their glaring need for linemen. Just last November the Cowboys blitzed Davis for a sack, 4 recorded QB pressures, and two penalties. That was probably Davis' worst game of the year, but in his 8 career seasons Davis has been inadequate enough at tackle that the OL-desperate Cards tried him at guard to similar underwhelming results. Yet the Cowboys reward his frustrating apathy towards improvement with nearly $19M in guaranteed money, and plug him into their talented offense as the starting right tackle. To be fair to Davis, he has (amazingly) made three Pro Bowls and has developed as a pretty fair hole opener in the running game, and being a part of a more skilled overall offense might push Davis to the next level. But I wouldn't bet on it, certainly not $50 million dollars and Super Bowl aspirations.
Or the case of Dewayne White, a DE you've almost assuredly never heard of. He toiled in anonymity in Tampa Bay for 4 seasons, recording 14 total sacks. His 2006 stats: 43 tackles and 5 sacks, both career highs and indicative of nothing more than an adequate starter. The Detroit Lions signed White to a 5 year, $29M contract after dealing the man he's replacing, James Hall, for a 5th round draft pick. Consider that Hall's worst season in the last 4 years was 2006, when in just 7 games he netted 25 tackles and 5 sacks. White is a disciple of Lions coach Rod Marinelli from when he coached the Tampa Bay defensive line, and he has shown brief flashes of being the type of player Hall was in 2004, when Hall chalked up 11.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and swatted down 5 passes. Very brief flashes of being above-average gets White almost $6M per year, and many Detroit fans are pretty optimistic (as optimistic as any Lions fan can reasonably be, given the malaise of the franchise) that White can blossom in the silver and blue. I know James Hall was not a good scheme fit for the Lions, but I'm willing to wager he records more sacks and tackles in St. Louis than White puts up in Detroit this coming season. And Hall only cost the Rams a 5th round draft pick, which the Lions will almost certainly squander on a career backup.
But the fans of the San Francisco 49ers are the Kool Aid drinkers who are setting themselves up for a agonizing fall. The Niners signed the top CB on the market, former Buffalo Bills Nate Clements, to the richest deal for a corner in NFL history. They gave Clements $80M over 8 years, or almost $16M and 2 seasons more than the reported next-best offer (from his hometown Browns). Later on, San Fran opened the checkbook for Eagles safety Michael Lewis, former Ravens backup DT Aubrayo Franklin, former Falcons WR Ashley Leile, and former Patriots LB Tully Banta-Cain. They had nearly $30 million in salary cap room for 2007, and according to the figures I've seen, these new deals and a couple of extensions to current players soak up nearly every penny. Clements is indeed a very talented cover man and one of the best run support corners in the game, and I have no doubt he'll make a strong impact on the oft-wretched 49ers pass defense. But is he deserving of the richest positional contract in NFL history--no chance. Lewis ended 2006 on the Eagles bench, thanks to his poor pass defense and lack of range. He is a former Pro Bowler (emphasis on former) and he still represents an upgrade, but ask any Eagles fan if they'll miss Lewis and once they are done cursing and drinking, they'll say good riddance. Franklin is a career backup DT who has netted 40 career tackles in 36 career games. That's right, he averages one tackle per game, slightly less than Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski. Leile is a former 1st round pick who was benched by the WR-desperate Falcons for being a terrible blocker, unable to run any patterns except streaks, and a sourpuss in the locker room. He replaces Antonio Bryant in the 49ers lineup, whom they let go because he was an apathetic blocker, unwilling to run pattersn across the middle, and a cancer in the locker room (as well as having a drug problem). Banta-Cain was a situational pass rushing OLB with the Patriots who, despite given ample opportunity, never impressed the New England brass he was an every down player. Call me crazy, but I'll trust the talent evaluation of the Patriots over the 49ers. Yet the 49er faithful are already ordering NFC West Champs t-shirts and gloating about the "greatest offseason in NFL history", to quote one message board sycophant. They'll be better, but other than Clements and perhaps a rejuvenated season or two from Lewis, the Niners didn't stack their deck but merely shuffled it. Their improvement will be far more dependant on the progress of their young core players and not these new acquisitions.
Some other signings I think are causing way too much optimism include RB Ahman Green in Houston, the trade and subsequent contract extension of RB Thomas Jones from the Bears to the Jets, Tampa Bay bringing in average LT Luke Petitgout and his compound leg fracture for Pro Bowler money, and WR Dennis Northcutt in Jacksonville. Those guys are all capable players of varying degrees, but other than perhaps Jones, none will represent much, if any, upgrade over the status quo.
In desperately clinging to my resolution, there are a few signings I really like and think will have very positive impacts. The Browns signing G Eric Steinbach, the Seahawks bringing in DE Patrick Kerney, the Broncos picking up RB Travis Henry, the Cardinals signing former Dallas C Al Johnson on the cheap, and the Saints taking a low-risk chance on LB Brian Simmons are all solid moves. I think the Patriots grossly overpaid for prized LB Adalius Thomas, but he's at least an impact player with great versatility and a major upgrade over the departed Banta-Cain. I like the move the Cowboys made in replacing backup QB Drew Bledsoe with Brad Johnson, who will mentor Tony Romo instead of tormenting him. WR Drew Bennett could be a very good signing for the Rams, who are losing talented WR Kevin Curtis.
Honestly I hate being the bearer of bad tiding, but as a Cleveland native and lifelong Lions fan, I am a strong adherent to Chuck Daly's mantra. Curb your enthusiasm for the free agent signings until you see how it actually works out. After all, last offseason the Browns were widely regarded as having one of the greatest free agent classes in history. Thanks in part to devastating injuries to a couple of those prominent signees, the Browns regressed by 2 games. That plays into my other New Year's resolution, which was to drink more alcohol. Cheers!