Packnut
03-10-2007, 12:01 PM
ESPN.com: Scouts
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Running backs in high demand
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Green Bay (1) and Tennessee (2) have what I will label as a "major need" at running back, meaning they need a starter. Prior to Wednesday, Cleveland would have also been one of the teams, but between Reuben Droughns, Jerome Harrison and newly acquired Jamal Lewis, it now has enough to get by and eliminate their running back needs.
The Ravens also would have been one of those teams, but trading for Willis McGahee is a clear upgrade at the running back position over Lewis, whose production and explosiveness has steadily declined due to an awful lot of wear and tear and the constant battling of injuries. McGahee desperately needed a change of scenery, and he will join fellow Miami alumni Ray Lewis and Ed Reed and should instantly feel comfortable in his new surroundings. On the field, he is an excellent fit in the Ravens' run-first, downhill attack and should thrive in Baltimore. The Ravens got better today.
McGahee's departure leaves Buffalo (3,4) with both a major and minor need at running back. They will be counted twice, once for each category.
In addition to those three teams, there are eight other teams who ideally would like to add another back to help out for 2007.
The Colts (5) have a solid young player in Joseph Addai, who has yet to establish that he can carry the load for an entire season. The Chiefs (6), Vikings (7) and Rams (8) all have a proven No. 1 back but little depth behind them, so all three would be wise to find a solid backup. The Falcons (9) have two solid running backs but lack the big power runner to fit their new offense. The Steelers (10) re-signed Najeh Davenport, but he isn't good enough to be the second back behind Willie Parker. Brandon Jacobs looks like a keeper for the Giants (11), but he runs very high, will take plenty of big hits and is unproven as a true workhorse. They need someone with wiggle and pass catching ability to complement the bigger and more physical Jacobs. Brian Westbrook is an outstanding football player but lacks size. The Eagles (12) surely will add a bigger runner to back him up and lighten his load.
That's 12 teams that probably would like to add a running back to their roster in a somewhat prominent role. Now, how will those 12 spots get filled and who is available to fill them?
In my estimation, the only names who could be available, at a hefty price, are Chargers RB Michael Turner or one of the Redskins' two top running backs. Obtaining one of these players would be very costly. Neither the Chargers nor Redskins has to move one of their backs, and with Clinton Portis' injury, Washington may be in no position to move Portis or Ladell Betts. Meanwhile, Turner is a restricted free agent who has little leverage to force a deal out of San Diego.
So, what does the draft offer in terms of backs who can come in and start from day one and handle the bulk of the carries? It appears just Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are qualified for such duty, and they should be the only two runners taken in the first round of the draft. Let's assume they both go to one of the teams with a major need. That would leave one team left with a major hole and another nine with a minor need.
There are probably a few of you out there saying, "What about Dominic Rhodes and Corey Dillon?" I wouldn't want either as my No. 1 back. Rhodes runs with fine aggression but isn't real big and would be a durability risk as a true lead runner. He looked great at times, particularly in the postseason, but he is not equipped to be a top dog. As for Dillon, his best days are behind him. He is tough and runs hard but isn't dynamic or a game changer. His role is best as a backup.
Now back to the demand side of this equation. Not including Rhodes and Dillon, we were at one team with a major need and nine with minor needs. For argument's sake, let's just say that Rhodes or Dillon lands on that one team with the remaining major need. If that were to happen, I would switch the needs to none with major needs and 10 with minor needs.
How can those eleven teams find a suitable runner to give a respectable number of carries to? Correll Buckhalter, Chris Brown, Ron Dayne and maybe T.J. Duckett could all be suitable backups to bring a physical presence to a team's running game and spell a true No. 1 back like Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson. There are some other veterans out there who have had success, but none I would put a lot of stock into as a player to have 5-10 carries per game.
It is not far fetched to say that each of these four backs along with Rhodes and Dillon sign before draft day with one of those 11 teams with a need at the position. That would leave six clubs in the market for a running back on draft day, with Peterson and Lynch already being factored in and unavailable. These teams with a minor need are not going to spend a first round pick on the position, but they could be in the market for a runner on the first day of the draft.
There are six remaining first-day running backs who could make the team that drafts them happy. For teams in the market for bruisers to relieve their workhorse, Penn State's Tony Hunt, Louisville's Michael Bush and Rutgers' Brian Leonard all fit that bill. For a team like the Giants who need someone with more shiftiness, Florida State's Lorenzo Booker could be a real nice fit. Then there are three others -- Auburn's Kenny Irons, Ohio State's Antonio Pittman and Nebraska's Brandon Jackson who have some versatility and offer a little of both power and flash.
So, what does this all mean to the running back market? There looks like there are enough suitable running backs overall, but there is a bit of a shortage of true starters. Those teams with minor needs could find some excellent values and may afford to be patient but still must not push their luck too much. Still, it is a buyers market now for running backs.
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ESPN.com: Help | PR Media Kit | Sales Media Kit | Report a Bug | Contact Us | Site Map | Jobs at ESPN | Supplier Information | Copyright ©2007 ESPN Internet Ventures. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy and Safety Information/Your California Privacy Rights are applicable to you. All rights reserved.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Running backs in high demand
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Green Bay (1) and Tennessee (2) have what I will label as a "major need" at running back, meaning they need a starter. Prior to Wednesday, Cleveland would have also been one of the teams, but between Reuben Droughns, Jerome Harrison and newly acquired Jamal Lewis, it now has enough to get by and eliminate their running back needs.
The Ravens also would have been one of those teams, but trading for Willis McGahee is a clear upgrade at the running back position over Lewis, whose production and explosiveness has steadily declined due to an awful lot of wear and tear and the constant battling of injuries. McGahee desperately needed a change of scenery, and he will join fellow Miami alumni Ray Lewis and Ed Reed and should instantly feel comfortable in his new surroundings. On the field, he is an excellent fit in the Ravens' run-first, downhill attack and should thrive in Baltimore. The Ravens got better today.
McGahee's departure leaves Buffalo (3,4) with both a major and minor need at running back. They will be counted twice, once for each category.
In addition to those three teams, there are eight other teams who ideally would like to add another back to help out for 2007.
The Colts (5) have a solid young player in Joseph Addai, who has yet to establish that he can carry the load for an entire season. The Chiefs (6), Vikings (7) and Rams (8) all have a proven No. 1 back but little depth behind them, so all three would be wise to find a solid backup. The Falcons (9) have two solid running backs but lack the big power runner to fit their new offense. The Steelers (10) re-signed Najeh Davenport, but he isn't good enough to be the second back behind Willie Parker. Brandon Jacobs looks like a keeper for the Giants (11), but he runs very high, will take plenty of big hits and is unproven as a true workhorse. They need someone with wiggle and pass catching ability to complement the bigger and more physical Jacobs. Brian Westbrook is an outstanding football player but lacks size. The Eagles (12) surely will add a bigger runner to back him up and lighten his load.
That's 12 teams that probably would like to add a running back to their roster in a somewhat prominent role. Now, how will those 12 spots get filled and who is available to fill them?
In my estimation, the only names who could be available, at a hefty price, are Chargers RB Michael Turner or one of the Redskins' two top running backs. Obtaining one of these players would be very costly. Neither the Chargers nor Redskins has to move one of their backs, and with Clinton Portis' injury, Washington may be in no position to move Portis or Ladell Betts. Meanwhile, Turner is a restricted free agent who has little leverage to force a deal out of San Diego.
So, what does the draft offer in terms of backs who can come in and start from day one and handle the bulk of the carries? It appears just Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are qualified for such duty, and they should be the only two runners taken in the first round of the draft. Let's assume they both go to one of the teams with a major need. That would leave one team left with a major hole and another nine with a minor need.
There are probably a few of you out there saying, "What about Dominic Rhodes and Corey Dillon?" I wouldn't want either as my No. 1 back. Rhodes runs with fine aggression but isn't real big and would be a durability risk as a true lead runner. He looked great at times, particularly in the postseason, but he is not equipped to be a top dog. As for Dillon, his best days are behind him. He is tough and runs hard but isn't dynamic or a game changer. His role is best as a backup.
Now back to the demand side of this equation. Not including Rhodes and Dillon, we were at one team with a major need and nine with minor needs. For argument's sake, let's just say that Rhodes or Dillon lands on that one team with the remaining major need. If that were to happen, I would switch the needs to none with major needs and 10 with minor needs.
How can those eleven teams find a suitable runner to give a respectable number of carries to? Correll Buckhalter, Chris Brown, Ron Dayne and maybe T.J. Duckett could all be suitable backups to bring a physical presence to a team's running game and spell a true No. 1 back like Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson. There are some other veterans out there who have had success, but none I would put a lot of stock into as a player to have 5-10 carries per game.
It is not far fetched to say that each of these four backs along with Rhodes and Dillon sign before draft day with one of those 11 teams with a need at the position. That would leave six clubs in the market for a running back on draft day, with Peterson and Lynch already being factored in and unavailable. These teams with a minor need are not going to spend a first round pick on the position, but they could be in the market for a runner on the first day of the draft.
There are six remaining first-day running backs who could make the team that drafts them happy. For teams in the market for bruisers to relieve their workhorse, Penn State's Tony Hunt, Louisville's Michael Bush and Rutgers' Brian Leonard all fit that bill. For a team like the Giants who need someone with more shiftiness, Florida State's Lorenzo Booker could be a real nice fit. Then there are three others -- Auburn's Kenny Irons, Ohio State's Antonio Pittman and Nebraska's Brandon Jackson who have some versatility and offer a little of both power and flash.
So, what does this all mean to the running back market? There looks like there are enough suitable running backs overall, but there is a bit of a shortage of true starters. Those teams with minor needs could find some excellent values and may afford to be patient but still must not push their luck too much. Still, it is a buyers market now for running backs.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ESPN.com: Help | PR Media Kit | Sales Media Kit | Report a Bug | Contact Us | Site Map | Jobs at ESPN | Supplier Information | Copyright ©2007 ESPN Internet Ventures. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy and Safety Information/Your California Privacy Rights are applicable to you. All rights reserved.