motife
04-26-2006, 05:35 PM
Draft Q&A
Leinart's slide; Cromartie's rise; Potential value picks in late rounds
BY Nolan Nawrocki
April 26, 2006
Q: Do you think there is any chance the Packers would take TE Vernon Davis if he fell to No. 5? I think some part of Brett Favre's problems in '05 stemmed from the fact he had few weapons on offense and he felt he had to do it alone.
 Brian K ., Green Bay, Wis.
A: It’s very true no quarterback will win many games without some weapons and protection. Davis is definitely in strong consideration for the Packers, along with D’Brickashaw Ferguson and A.J. Hawk. Two quarterbacks will have to go in the top five for the Packers to be able to land Ferguson. Should Ferguson be gone, Hawk is a safer pick than Davis, and the value of the LB position is greater than the TE position. Given the choice between a tight end and linebacker, a linebacker stands a better chance of landing in Green Bay.
Q: Why is nobody talking about Antonio Cromartie being drafted by the Bears? If he was there, do you think the Bears would draft him?
 Lucas
A: Very insightful question. The Bears have shown a strong liking for big corners. Roosevelt Williams (third round, 2002) was 5-11 3/4, 202 pounds. Charles Tillman was 6-1 1/8, 207. At the Combine, Cromartie was 6-2 1/8, 208, and ran faster than either did when they were coming out. It would be naive to think the Bears do not have interest. Scouts consistently ask how early a team can realistically take a chance on a player with only one career start coming off a serious knee injury, and there are some scouts who feel strongly that Cromartie is too tall and long-levered for the position. I think his best pro position  with his outstanding ball skills and great hands  is as a receiver. Guys his size are generally playing on the other side of the ball, and Cromartie was scheduled to see double duty on offense next season at FSU had he returned. That said, he will be drafted as a corner, and the Bears are a prime candidate if he is still available at No. 25. After the phenomenal performance he put on display at his pro-day workout, I think he will be gone before the Bears pick, especially if they trade back as they are considering.
Q: With the real possibility that Houston passes on Reggie Bush for Mario Williams, would the Saints select Bush if he were available? Do you feel like the Saints will have any problems signing their top pick? Thanks.
â€â€ÂMaximilian Ortiz
A: Houston sources have said Bush would fall to No. 5 if he does not go first. Very good negotiating tactic but completely unfounded. If Bush falls to No. 2, my sources told me last night he will not go any further, and I would not expect the contract to be a big issue for the Saints.
Q: How could you really believe Leinart will fall to the 11th spot (see April 21 mock draft)? If Titans or Jets don't take him, another team will surely trade up to get him before he falls all the way to 11. I don't think this is a realistic outlook. It's hard to imagine that you, the experts, actually believe what you wrote.
 Jared Sullivan
A: Believe it, Jared. Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers made me a true believer. And if Joey Harrington did not go No. 3 to the Lions, he was not going until No. 19. That’s the unfortunate reality of the QB position. It is based on team need, and if teams do not need them, quarterbacks will fall. You don’t have to believe me prior to the draft, but history does not lie, and I think you will be a believer after it’s over and you see where Leinart goes. I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if I am, but bottom line, don’t believe the hype. I was ridiculed a year ago for positioning Troy Williamson at No. 7 to the Vikings, and I can give you similar examples every year going back. Perception and reality are two different things. Reality is Leinart is not as good as all the hype would have you believe. Evaluators see him for what he will likely be at the pro level  an average to above-average rhythm passer who needs a lot of talent around him to thrive.
Q: If the Cowboys were to use their first-round pick on a prospect to play opposite DeMarcus Ware, between Carpenter, Lawson and Wimbley, who would best fit that role?
â€â€ÂJohn Siroki
A: Very good question, John, and if you asked three different evaluators, which I have, you would likely get three different opinions. I think the Cowboys would tell you Carpenter, and I like what he brings  size, versatility, pass-rush ability and cover skills. I do not like his fiber. He does not know how to handle success. Bill Parcells might be able to help him in that area, but I do not like the idea of giving him a lot of money.
The history of Florida State defensive linemen (Andre Wadsworth, Jamal Reynolds) is scary. Wimbley possesses great character, but he may be too nice. His production was average. In a rush linebacker role, he could be very, very good with how low he has shown he can get to the ground and bend off the edge. But if I were picking  and let me qualify this by saying I would have done much more homework and made sure I was making the right move if I were in the Cowboys’ position  my inclination would be to go with Lawson. He has the highest ceiling of the three players, a tremendous burst off the edge and a very good motor. He can add more bulk and be taught to use his hands better. I love his intelligence (engineering graduate) and character. In fact, he might be too smart. But in my opinion, I think he is the safest pick of that group and would give opposing offensive coordinators fits trying to handle him and Ware.
Q: In your opinion, is it better for a team to have one primary decision maker on Draft Day or two or three executives with equal power?
 Steve Biscuit
A: Great question and there is no right or wrong answer. There are many strategies that have proven to work efficiently. The key for any front office is for decision makers to be on the same page and united on all fronts, especially with regard to how a player will fit in a scheme and how much they are willing to compromise on character in exchange for talent.
Often the greater the number of strong voices that are heard prior to the draft, the better the outcome. Decision makers need to be able to weigh many arguments and be able to recognize and side with the most logical solution based on their own evaluation.
Q: There is no way that Al Davis passes on either Vince Young or Matt Leinart if either is available when the Raiders pick at No. 7.
 Michelle
A: Not sure what your question is, Michelle, but I will respond to your statement anyway. Vince Young will not be available at No. 7, so it is a moot point. And yes, Al Davis will pass on Matt Leinart. He is comfortable with what he has at quarterback in Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter, and although he did have Ken Stabler, he also had Todd Marinovich.
Q: Many mocks have the Rams taking either Jimmy Williams or Chad Greenway with their first pick. Who do you think they like better now that Jim Haslett is the DC?
 Joe Marciano
A: I think Williams is more of a need after they signed Will Witherspoon early in free agency, and my sources say Haslett likes Williams better.
Q: I've just had a look at your Draft Value Board  excellent stuff. One question after looking at this is that Leonard Pope was highlighted in blue for character concerns. I wasn't aware of anything here  could you enlighten me? I live in the UK, so don't always hear about such issues  but I haven't read anything regarding this to date. Many thanks. Best regards,
 Paul Emery
A: Good question. I cannot reveal all of the details regarding what I know about Pope without violating the trust of my sources, but based on what is documented, I could tell you he was suspended for the Louisiana-Monroe game last season for an incident regarding a dispute with his female resident adviser in his dorm, and there are some other issues that concern teams. Intelligence and the ability to learn an NFL offense are even bigger issues (which is now reflected in the most recent draft value chart, with Pope highlighted in both green and blue), factors that have combined to knock him off the draft boards of some teams. In my humble opinion, he is one of the most overrated talents in this draft. Being too tall can be as big of a detriment as being too short. He is not nearly as talented as Ben Watson or Randy McMichael, but I recognize some team will draft him earlier than his talent warrants.
Q: Of the players not expected to be drafted in Round One, which ones will be the best value?
A: Good football players slip in the draft every year because they don’t have ideal triangle numbers. This year, a few who immediately come to mind for standing out more on tape than on a track are Syracuse S Anthony Smith, Texas Tech S Dwayne Slay and Tennessee DE Parys Haralson.
Some other prospects who I think have a chance to exceed expectations are Northwestern QB Brett Basanez, South Florida RB Andre Hall, Wisconsin TE Owen Daniels, Western Michigan WR Greg Jennings, Michigan State C Chris Morris, New Mexico OT Terrance Pennington, Weber State OT Paul McQuistan, North Carolina State DT John McCargo, Georgia Tech LB Gerris Wilkinson, Stanford OLB Jon Alston, Oklahoma LB Clint Ingram, Alabama S Roman Harper, Penn State S Calvin Lowry and Northwestern State (La.) CB David Pittman. In most of these cases, I am betting on the character of the player. Combine talent with strong character, and teams usually find themselves with good pro players.
Q: With the Bears signing Ricky Manning to an offer sheet, what direction are they likely to take with the 26th pick? Assuming, of course, that the Panthers do not match the offer.
 Nicholas S. Longaphy, Waterloo, Ontario
A: Didn't know Canada was Bears country, Nick. Carolina opted not to match the offer, so Manning is indeed a Bear. Don’t completely rule out cornerback if the right one is there, but I would say linebacker, tight end and even safety are greater priorities.
Q: I'm a big fan and read all your work religiously. What are your thoughts about (Mathias) Kiwanuka and Tamba Hali as 3-4 outside linebackers? As a Patriots fan they both seem like intriguing prospects: high character, top-15 talents based on production who have fallen based on postseason workouts. Could they transition to the 3-4? Keep up the good work and I'll be reading it!
 Ben Spieler
A: Ben, Hali and Kiwanuka are misfits for the OLB position. They are both better going forward and are not very natural changing directions, flipping their hips and going in reverse. Actually, Kiwanuka does go backward quite a bit, but it’s because he is getting ridden off the ball, playing on skates. Several teams have Kiwanuka positioned squarely in the third round or off their boards completely. His senior year was not good. Hali’s production mostly comes when he is unblocked or working against tight ends. You have to like his motor, but when you really study him  and I encourage you to watch the Northwestern game vs. Zach Strief  he really struggles when matched up against bigger blockers. Strief slapped him around good. And Penn State players scare me because of the way Joe Paterno places restrictions on scouts. Many teams struggle to gather the necessary background information they need on PSU players, and there are a few concerns with Hali that several teams with which I recently spoke were not even aware of just weeks away from the draft. I think Seattle, if they stay put, could be in the market for both players as ends, and there are other teams that like both players in the first. But I think they are both overrated and could easily slide to the second round. After Mario Williams, there is a big drop-off at the DE position, especially for teams that designate Manny Lawson and Kamerion Wimbley as the rush LB prospects that they are best-suited to be.
Q: Hello Nolan, Two things. I think PFW is overrating QB Vince Young, and your article on defense (see The Way We Hear It  NFL draft, April 18). Since Vince was used in the spread formation in college, wasn't it easier for him to read defenses? In the pros, you’re going to be under center most of the time  would a team adjust their philosophy from going under center to the spread? Or is that unrealistic? Name one quarterback that was successful in that kind of transition. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't Vince's offense not a pro-style offense, like Matt Leinart's. Vince's Wonderlic has been given a lot of press, it does prove one thing and that is pressure under the clock  all successful quarterbacks are good under pressure. Things have been made that he is so quick and fast now, but when he gets to the pros (everybody is fast). That could be neutralized and so will his confidence. If Vince isn't thrown to the wolves right away he can be successful, but again is that realistic? Also his judgment on who is representing him, give me a break! There is a reason why people like the Mannings trust Tom Condon. Lastly, one has to look at the Rams drafting (in the last few years) what all the critics thought were good defensive linemen, and they turned out to be busts. Isn't it even harder to find a truly great defensive lineman than it is a quarterback? Thanks again for reading my rants.
 Christian, San Diego
A: I respect your opinion, Christian, and some teams agree with you that Vince Young will never get it. However, I disagree, and the classic example is his mentor, Steve McNair, who played primarily in the shotgun at Alcorn State. There are many examples, but most recently, Byron Leftwich and Philip Rivers were primarily shotgun passers. Most quarterbacks coming out of the college game tend to operate out of the gun nowadays.
As for intelligence, the Wonderlic is meant to measure it, but it does not measure football intelligence, and many great quarterbacks, from McNair to Marino, did not fare any better than Young on the Wonderlic. My opinion: It will take Vince a little longer to transition to the pro game. After all, he is the youngest of the three elite QBs. But he will get it, and he will be a great pro in due time.
To answer your question about overvaluing defense, the article you are referencing was based largely on feedback from NFL decision makers. The reality is  defense wins championships. And to win the AFC South, the Texans need to be able to supply enough pressure to rattle Peyton Manning. They didn’t lose seven leads last year because they could not score. They lost them because they could not get enough pressure on the opposing quarterback to stop their opponent from airing out the ball downfield. You can never have too many good defensive linemen  see the Patriots’ recent history. And when you do find one, like Richard Seymour, he is worth his weight in gold. And keep in mind, Seymour had motor issues coming out of Georgia, but he possessed good character, like Williams, and his recent contract (highest-paid defender in football) speaks to how much the Patriots value him.
Bottom line, if the Texans want to win, they must address the foundation they have not been able to successfully address in their first four years of existence. That is, they must build inside out and correct both lines. Reggie Bush is a rare talent and worth the No. 1 pick, but he cannot do for them what Mario Williams can. My opinion, and the opinion of many decision makers who want them to take Bush, is that in the long term, Williams is the right pick. Based on what many longtime evaluators are saying, they should spend their first two picks on an offensive and a defensive lineman. That is the quickest way to build a winner. It might not be the popular pick, but I do think it is the right pick.
Q: Any chance the Dolphins move up in the draft, say with the Lions, to select Michael Huff?
 Scarface
A: Anything is possible, but according to my sources, the Dolphins have Huff stacked as a safety, not a corner, and based on the evaluation of their roster, I do not think it is their most pressing need.
Q: Hello, I first wanted to give you credit as a great draft analyst. You have an excellent feel for each team and what they do on draft day.
Last year, you wrote an article on the targets of the top 20 teams in the draft (see The Way We Hear It  NFL draft, April 19, 2005). As it turns out, you were extremely accurate. I was wondering if you planned to do that again this year before Saturday.
Thanks for all the wonderful info.
 Eric Trauger, Gillette, Wyo.
A: Thanks Eric. I have already done so for myself and would like to share all I know. Unfortunately, as I gain more trust of the decision makers, I am forced into a situation where I cannot compromise their trust and reveal all that I know to the public. Of the 32 teams in the first round, I think I know 21 desired targets. That does not mean they will be able to select that player, but in these cases, I do know whom they realistically have a chance to select and would like to select. The problem I have if I share that information with everyone is that I will not get the info I need to give you the best mock draft and to be the most accurate. To achieve that goal, I have been on the phone into the wee hours for many weeks tracking down the info. Look for my mock draft Friday for analysis and possible Draft Day scenarios.
Leinart's slide; Cromartie's rise; Potential value picks in late rounds
BY Nolan Nawrocki
April 26, 2006
Q: Do you think there is any chance the Packers would take TE Vernon Davis if he fell to No. 5? I think some part of Brett Favre's problems in '05 stemmed from the fact he had few weapons on offense and he felt he had to do it alone.
 Brian K ., Green Bay, Wis.
A: It’s very true no quarterback will win many games without some weapons and protection. Davis is definitely in strong consideration for the Packers, along with D’Brickashaw Ferguson and A.J. Hawk. Two quarterbacks will have to go in the top five for the Packers to be able to land Ferguson. Should Ferguson be gone, Hawk is a safer pick than Davis, and the value of the LB position is greater than the TE position. Given the choice between a tight end and linebacker, a linebacker stands a better chance of landing in Green Bay.
Q: Why is nobody talking about Antonio Cromartie being drafted by the Bears? If he was there, do you think the Bears would draft him?
 Lucas
A: Very insightful question. The Bears have shown a strong liking for big corners. Roosevelt Williams (third round, 2002) was 5-11 3/4, 202 pounds. Charles Tillman was 6-1 1/8, 207. At the Combine, Cromartie was 6-2 1/8, 208, and ran faster than either did when they were coming out. It would be naive to think the Bears do not have interest. Scouts consistently ask how early a team can realistically take a chance on a player with only one career start coming off a serious knee injury, and there are some scouts who feel strongly that Cromartie is too tall and long-levered for the position. I think his best pro position  with his outstanding ball skills and great hands  is as a receiver. Guys his size are generally playing on the other side of the ball, and Cromartie was scheduled to see double duty on offense next season at FSU had he returned. That said, he will be drafted as a corner, and the Bears are a prime candidate if he is still available at No. 25. After the phenomenal performance he put on display at his pro-day workout, I think he will be gone before the Bears pick, especially if they trade back as they are considering.
Q: With the real possibility that Houston passes on Reggie Bush for Mario Williams, would the Saints select Bush if he were available? Do you feel like the Saints will have any problems signing their top pick? Thanks.
â€â€ÂMaximilian Ortiz
A: Houston sources have said Bush would fall to No. 5 if he does not go first. Very good negotiating tactic but completely unfounded. If Bush falls to No. 2, my sources told me last night he will not go any further, and I would not expect the contract to be a big issue for the Saints.
Q: How could you really believe Leinart will fall to the 11th spot (see April 21 mock draft)? If Titans or Jets don't take him, another team will surely trade up to get him before he falls all the way to 11. I don't think this is a realistic outlook. It's hard to imagine that you, the experts, actually believe what you wrote.
 Jared Sullivan
A: Believe it, Jared. Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers made me a true believer. And if Joey Harrington did not go No. 3 to the Lions, he was not going until No. 19. That’s the unfortunate reality of the QB position. It is based on team need, and if teams do not need them, quarterbacks will fall. You don’t have to believe me prior to the draft, but history does not lie, and I think you will be a believer after it’s over and you see where Leinart goes. I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if I am, but bottom line, don’t believe the hype. I was ridiculed a year ago for positioning Troy Williamson at No. 7 to the Vikings, and I can give you similar examples every year going back. Perception and reality are two different things. Reality is Leinart is not as good as all the hype would have you believe. Evaluators see him for what he will likely be at the pro level  an average to above-average rhythm passer who needs a lot of talent around him to thrive.
Q: If the Cowboys were to use their first-round pick on a prospect to play opposite DeMarcus Ware, between Carpenter, Lawson and Wimbley, who would best fit that role?
â€â€ÂJohn Siroki
A: Very good question, John, and if you asked three different evaluators, which I have, you would likely get three different opinions. I think the Cowboys would tell you Carpenter, and I like what he brings  size, versatility, pass-rush ability and cover skills. I do not like his fiber. He does not know how to handle success. Bill Parcells might be able to help him in that area, but I do not like the idea of giving him a lot of money.
The history of Florida State defensive linemen (Andre Wadsworth, Jamal Reynolds) is scary. Wimbley possesses great character, but he may be too nice. His production was average. In a rush linebacker role, he could be very, very good with how low he has shown he can get to the ground and bend off the edge. But if I were picking  and let me qualify this by saying I would have done much more homework and made sure I was making the right move if I were in the Cowboys’ position  my inclination would be to go with Lawson. He has the highest ceiling of the three players, a tremendous burst off the edge and a very good motor. He can add more bulk and be taught to use his hands better. I love his intelligence (engineering graduate) and character. In fact, he might be too smart. But in my opinion, I think he is the safest pick of that group and would give opposing offensive coordinators fits trying to handle him and Ware.
Q: In your opinion, is it better for a team to have one primary decision maker on Draft Day or two or three executives with equal power?
 Steve Biscuit
A: Great question and there is no right or wrong answer. There are many strategies that have proven to work efficiently. The key for any front office is for decision makers to be on the same page and united on all fronts, especially with regard to how a player will fit in a scheme and how much they are willing to compromise on character in exchange for talent.
Often the greater the number of strong voices that are heard prior to the draft, the better the outcome. Decision makers need to be able to weigh many arguments and be able to recognize and side with the most logical solution based on their own evaluation.
Q: There is no way that Al Davis passes on either Vince Young or Matt Leinart if either is available when the Raiders pick at No. 7.
 Michelle
A: Not sure what your question is, Michelle, but I will respond to your statement anyway. Vince Young will not be available at No. 7, so it is a moot point. And yes, Al Davis will pass on Matt Leinart. He is comfortable with what he has at quarterback in Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter, and although he did have Ken Stabler, he also had Todd Marinovich.
Q: Many mocks have the Rams taking either Jimmy Williams or Chad Greenway with their first pick. Who do you think they like better now that Jim Haslett is the DC?
 Joe Marciano
A: I think Williams is more of a need after they signed Will Witherspoon early in free agency, and my sources say Haslett likes Williams better.
Q: I've just had a look at your Draft Value Board  excellent stuff. One question after looking at this is that Leonard Pope was highlighted in blue for character concerns. I wasn't aware of anything here  could you enlighten me? I live in the UK, so don't always hear about such issues  but I haven't read anything regarding this to date. Many thanks. Best regards,
 Paul Emery
A: Good question. I cannot reveal all of the details regarding what I know about Pope without violating the trust of my sources, but based on what is documented, I could tell you he was suspended for the Louisiana-Monroe game last season for an incident regarding a dispute with his female resident adviser in his dorm, and there are some other issues that concern teams. Intelligence and the ability to learn an NFL offense are even bigger issues (which is now reflected in the most recent draft value chart, with Pope highlighted in both green and blue), factors that have combined to knock him off the draft boards of some teams. In my humble opinion, he is one of the most overrated talents in this draft. Being too tall can be as big of a detriment as being too short. He is not nearly as talented as Ben Watson or Randy McMichael, but I recognize some team will draft him earlier than his talent warrants.
Q: Of the players not expected to be drafted in Round One, which ones will be the best value?
A: Good football players slip in the draft every year because they don’t have ideal triangle numbers. This year, a few who immediately come to mind for standing out more on tape than on a track are Syracuse S Anthony Smith, Texas Tech S Dwayne Slay and Tennessee DE Parys Haralson.
Some other prospects who I think have a chance to exceed expectations are Northwestern QB Brett Basanez, South Florida RB Andre Hall, Wisconsin TE Owen Daniels, Western Michigan WR Greg Jennings, Michigan State C Chris Morris, New Mexico OT Terrance Pennington, Weber State OT Paul McQuistan, North Carolina State DT John McCargo, Georgia Tech LB Gerris Wilkinson, Stanford OLB Jon Alston, Oklahoma LB Clint Ingram, Alabama S Roman Harper, Penn State S Calvin Lowry and Northwestern State (La.) CB David Pittman. In most of these cases, I am betting on the character of the player. Combine talent with strong character, and teams usually find themselves with good pro players.
Q: With the Bears signing Ricky Manning to an offer sheet, what direction are they likely to take with the 26th pick? Assuming, of course, that the Panthers do not match the offer.
 Nicholas S. Longaphy, Waterloo, Ontario
A: Didn't know Canada was Bears country, Nick. Carolina opted not to match the offer, so Manning is indeed a Bear. Don’t completely rule out cornerback if the right one is there, but I would say linebacker, tight end and even safety are greater priorities.
Q: I'm a big fan and read all your work religiously. What are your thoughts about (Mathias) Kiwanuka and Tamba Hali as 3-4 outside linebackers? As a Patriots fan they both seem like intriguing prospects: high character, top-15 talents based on production who have fallen based on postseason workouts. Could they transition to the 3-4? Keep up the good work and I'll be reading it!
 Ben Spieler
A: Ben, Hali and Kiwanuka are misfits for the OLB position. They are both better going forward and are not very natural changing directions, flipping their hips and going in reverse. Actually, Kiwanuka does go backward quite a bit, but it’s because he is getting ridden off the ball, playing on skates. Several teams have Kiwanuka positioned squarely in the third round or off their boards completely. His senior year was not good. Hali’s production mostly comes when he is unblocked or working against tight ends. You have to like his motor, but when you really study him  and I encourage you to watch the Northwestern game vs. Zach Strief  he really struggles when matched up against bigger blockers. Strief slapped him around good. And Penn State players scare me because of the way Joe Paterno places restrictions on scouts. Many teams struggle to gather the necessary background information they need on PSU players, and there are a few concerns with Hali that several teams with which I recently spoke were not even aware of just weeks away from the draft. I think Seattle, if they stay put, could be in the market for both players as ends, and there are other teams that like both players in the first. But I think they are both overrated and could easily slide to the second round. After Mario Williams, there is a big drop-off at the DE position, especially for teams that designate Manny Lawson and Kamerion Wimbley as the rush LB prospects that they are best-suited to be.
Q: Hello Nolan, Two things. I think PFW is overrating QB Vince Young, and your article on defense (see The Way We Hear It  NFL draft, April 18). Since Vince was used in the spread formation in college, wasn't it easier for him to read defenses? In the pros, you’re going to be under center most of the time  would a team adjust their philosophy from going under center to the spread? Or is that unrealistic? Name one quarterback that was successful in that kind of transition. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't Vince's offense not a pro-style offense, like Matt Leinart's. Vince's Wonderlic has been given a lot of press, it does prove one thing and that is pressure under the clock  all successful quarterbacks are good under pressure. Things have been made that he is so quick and fast now, but when he gets to the pros (everybody is fast). That could be neutralized and so will his confidence. If Vince isn't thrown to the wolves right away he can be successful, but again is that realistic? Also his judgment on who is representing him, give me a break! There is a reason why people like the Mannings trust Tom Condon. Lastly, one has to look at the Rams drafting (in the last few years) what all the critics thought were good defensive linemen, and they turned out to be busts. Isn't it even harder to find a truly great defensive lineman than it is a quarterback? Thanks again for reading my rants.
 Christian, San Diego
A: I respect your opinion, Christian, and some teams agree with you that Vince Young will never get it. However, I disagree, and the classic example is his mentor, Steve McNair, who played primarily in the shotgun at Alcorn State. There are many examples, but most recently, Byron Leftwich and Philip Rivers were primarily shotgun passers. Most quarterbacks coming out of the college game tend to operate out of the gun nowadays.
As for intelligence, the Wonderlic is meant to measure it, but it does not measure football intelligence, and many great quarterbacks, from McNair to Marino, did not fare any better than Young on the Wonderlic. My opinion: It will take Vince a little longer to transition to the pro game. After all, he is the youngest of the three elite QBs. But he will get it, and he will be a great pro in due time.
To answer your question about overvaluing defense, the article you are referencing was based largely on feedback from NFL decision makers. The reality is  defense wins championships. And to win the AFC South, the Texans need to be able to supply enough pressure to rattle Peyton Manning. They didn’t lose seven leads last year because they could not score. They lost them because they could not get enough pressure on the opposing quarterback to stop their opponent from airing out the ball downfield. You can never have too many good defensive linemen  see the Patriots’ recent history. And when you do find one, like Richard Seymour, he is worth his weight in gold. And keep in mind, Seymour had motor issues coming out of Georgia, but he possessed good character, like Williams, and his recent contract (highest-paid defender in football) speaks to how much the Patriots value him.
Bottom line, if the Texans want to win, they must address the foundation they have not been able to successfully address in their first four years of existence. That is, they must build inside out and correct both lines. Reggie Bush is a rare talent and worth the No. 1 pick, but he cannot do for them what Mario Williams can. My opinion, and the opinion of many decision makers who want them to take Bush, is that in the long term, Williams is the right pick. Based on what many longtime evaluators are saying, they should spend their first two picks on an offensive and a defensive lineman. That is the quickest way to build a winner. It might not be the popular pick, but I do think it is the right pick.
Q: Any chance the Dolphins move up in the draft, say with the Lions, to select Michael Huff?
 Scarface
A: Anything is possible, but according to my sources, the Dolphins have Huff stacked as a safety, not a corner, and based on the evaluation of their roster, I do not think it is their most pressing need.
Q: Hello, I first wanted to give you credit as a great draft analyst. You have an excellent feel for each team and what they do on draft day.
Last year, you wrote an article on the targets of the top 20 teams in the draft (see The Way We Hear It  NFL draft, April 19, 2005). As it turns out, you were extremely accurate. I was wondering if you planned to do that again this year before Saturday.
Thanks for all the wonderful info.
 Eric Trauger, Gillette, Wyo.
A: Thanks Eric. I have already done so for myself and would like to share all I know. Unfortunately, as I gain more trust of the decision makers, I am forced into a situation where I cannot compromise their trust and reveal all that I know to the public. Of the 32 teams in the first round, I think I know 21 desired targets. That does not mean they will be able to select that player, but in these cases, I do know whom they realistically have a chance to select and would like to select. The problem I have if I share that information with everyone is that I will not get the info I need to give you the best mock draft and to be the most accurate. To achieve that goal, I have been on the phone into the wee hours for many weeks tracking down the info. Look for my mock draft Friday for analysis and possible Draft Day scenarios.