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Bretsky
04-14-2007, 04:45 PM
McCarthy faces most challenging season
Posted: April 13, 2007


Bud Lea
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The big question Packers fans have this coming season revolves around Mike McCarthy.

How much better will he coach this year?

Is he ready for the next step?

Can he coach the Packers into the playoffs?

The 43-year-old McCarthy doesn't have enough of a résumé to indicate that he's a winning coach. He has been a head coach in the NFL for one season. His team lost to the Chicago Bears, the New England Patriots, and the New York Jets by the combined score of 99-10. It edged the slumping Minnesota Vikings, 9-7, on a 44-yard field goal by rookie kicker Dave Rayner on a cold and rainy night in December at Lambeau Field.

The Packers finished 8-8 after demolishing the Bears, who had wrapped up the division title and had absolutely nothing at stake in the final regular-season game against Green Bay at Soldier Field. How much did that count?

For what it's worth, the Packers leaped from fourth to second place in the weak NFC North, finishing with a four-game winning streak. But the Bears ran away with the division, posting a 13-3 record.

Two things happen to people who are asked to take more on. They shrink or they expand. They become more than you thought they were, or they prove to be less than you thought they were.

So McCarthy is facing the most important and the most challenging season as an NFL head coach. The Packers are this/close to breaking through and getting into the playoffs. And they are this/close to breaking up should aging Brett Favre suffer a serious injury and the young Packers become just another NFL team.

If Favre goes down, McCarthy most likely will force the untested Aaron Rodgers to take over. The rarely-used Rodgers has a two-year career completion percentage of 48.4%, a career passer rating of 43.9, zero touchdowns and 1 interception. If that isn't scary enough, he also is coming off a broken foot.

Since winning the NFC North in 2004 with a 10-6 record, the Packers have won just 12 of 32 games. Players have aged or departed, among them one-time Pro Bowl selections Ahman Green, Javon Walker, Mike Flanagan, William Henderson and Ryan Longwell.

The Packers have not been active on the free-agent market, but they do have nine picks in the draft. They have holes to fill, holes that once were filled with players of stature, and they will start with less-experienced talent.

How important a decision for playoff-contending teams is finding the right coach? After quarterback, I'm not so sure there's a more important piece to a championship puzzle than the head coach.

This off-season alone, the league has lost four coaches with at least 100 career victories: Bill Parcells, Dennis Green, Bill Cowher and Marty Schottenheimer - the guy who coached the Chargers to go 14-2, but flamed out in the playoffs. So much for experience.

Entering the 2006 season, there were seven first-time head coaches: Minnesota's Brad Childress, Houston's Gary Kubiak, St. Louis's Scott Linehan, the New York Jets' Eric Mangini, Detroit's Rod Marinelli, New Orleans' Sean Payton, and McCarthy.

Payton, whose NFL résumé included stints with Jim Fassel, John Gruden and Bill Parcells, turned out to do the best job. He took over the 3-13 Saints, won a tough division with a 10-6 record, beat Philadelphia in the playoffs before losing to the Bears in the NFC Championship Game. Mangini's Jets were a wild-card team. McCarthy started off 1-4, took his lumps in November before turning things around in the last four games.

The much ballyhooed Childress was a huge disappointment at Minnesota as the Vikings finished 6-10, and Marinelli's Lions won only three games. Only the Oakland Raiders (2-14) had a poorer season, the worst in the NFL.

Entering the 2007 season, there will be five first-time coaches: Arizona's Ken Whisenhunt, Atlanta's Bobby Petrino, Miami's Cam Cameron, Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Oakland's Lane Kiffin.

Petrino was hired away from Louisville, where he compiled a 41-9 record and replaced Jim Mora, who was fired after a 26-22 mark in three seasons with the Falcons. Kiffin, the son of Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, becomes the youngest head coach in the NFL at 31. He has been at USC since 2001, spending the last two years as offensive coordinator.

The thing about hiring college coaches is that they are pushed in only three, maybe four games all year. The NFL is 16 big games, not four.

No Packers coach, other than Scooter McLean, ever began his career at Green Bay with less fanfare or with fewer expectations than McCarthy. He wasn't viewed as a savior or a genius, just a football coach inheriting a mess.

Fans today view McCarthy as brainier and better than Childress and Marinelli. This was a perfect time for him to inherit the 4-12 Packers.

McCarthy will only be as good as Favre is healthy and he finds a running back to replace Ahman Green and other offensive playmakers. That's how it works.

But it can work the other way around, too. Baltimore's Brian Billick, an offensive genius, won a Super Bowl because of his defense. Jimmy Johnson, a defensive genius, won a couple because of his offense. How did Barry Switzer do it? He inherited a bundle of proven talent at Dallas.

And then there's Lovie Smith of the Bears. He was a 46-year-old defensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams when he was named head coach at Chicago in 2004. The Bears were 5-11 in Lovie's first year, reversed the digits the next year and made it all the way to the Super Bowl before losing a disappointing 29-17 decision to the Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl. They just weren't quite ready for the big show and proved that Rex Grossman isn't the answer at quarterback.

The Bears were not embarrassed that Smith was the lowest-paid head coach in the league last season at $1.35 million. To the contrary, when he got them to the Super Bowl, that's called very good business, getting the most bang for the buck.

But the Bears had to dig up $22 million to keep him for the next four years.

What have the Packers, Vikings and Lions done to overtake the Bears? Not much.

The Packers' 301 points scored last season were the second-fewest in the Favre era. They need a running back, tight end, a wide receiver. But even moreso, they need a great player.

All is takes is one Drew Brees story to get fans excited before minicamps and training camps begin. Brees signed with the Saints last year and promptly joined two of the early free-agent success stories, Reggie White and Deion Sanders, as a player who made an immediate and significant difference.

McCarthy stood up to the fire last season. Until he gets some better talent, though, he must sail on, against the current, and with full faith in his 8-8 vessel.

Bretsky
04-14-2007, 04:59 PM
Figured I'd post some new PI articles since some must be starving for any news of Packer football.

So far I like what I see from MM; this article offered some interesting thoughts

301 points on the season ? Less than 20 per game ? That sucks

We need more that can make plays on Offense; I hope TT finds em soon

woodbuck27
04-14-2007, 05:12 PM
The real problem now is that there isn't alot left in FA to find B.

Will TT go heavy early on 'O' in the draft?

I expect that he won't take a risk on RB Marshawn Lynch with the 16th pick but rather take the best player available on his board or trade down.

and this quote fr. TT:

"We have some young guys that I know a lot of people don't know about, but we think they can play," Thompson said. "So we feel OK. We don't feel any burning desire that we have to do anything there."

Bretsky
04-14-2007, 05:22 PM
The real problem now is that there isn't alot left in FA to find B.

Will TT go heavy early on 'O' in the draft?

I expect that he won't take a risk on RB Marshawn Lynch with the 16th pick but rather take the best player available on his board or trade down.


I'd expect to go offense in two of the first three picks. It's obvious we need a RB, WR, and TE. This is one year it makes sense to trade down and go WR if they are not sold in Lynch.

Looking at nearly every draft forecast, there appears to be about 6-7 first caliber wide receivers.

BUT all of them are projected to be gone by the Packers round two pick in most forecasts. If they can somehow pick up an extra 2nd round pick by trading back 6-10 spots it really makes sense.

Unless a future star on defense falls (like DE Jamal Anderson) to 16, I hope we go offense.

The free agent talent is bleeded dry and we just frontloaded another contract to use up a good portion of next year's cap space. I sure hope TT hits on his picks.

woodbuck27
04-14-2007, 05:39 PM
I expect TT to stockpile picks as we've seen him do in the past.

One sign that he may pick RB ML at 16 comes with news that Lynch will visit Green Bay soon. Yet often players visit GB and it leads to zilch.

I expect if TT uses that 16th pick he'll elect to fill on the lines, at S or CB.

If he trades down a few spots we then may be looking at a WR in round one.

falco
04-14-2007, 05:50 PM
I could see TT trading down 10 picks or so for another 2nd, then taking Olsen, one of the top 10 WRs, and a second tier RB all in the first 2 rounds.

I could also seeing him taking a RB in the 3rd instead, and picking up a safety or cornerback with the additional 2nd round pick.

woodbuck27
04-14-2007, 06:03 PM
When the dust on the 2007 season has cleared and we are able to analyse it all.

I predict that we may well be assessing that Ted Thompson rolled over on Mike McCarthy this off season.

I feel TT should have brought in at least one impact layer fr. FA and certainly be drafting in 2 weeks time, to build our 'O' back this season.

Otherwise, given the difficult first half schedule we will be toast.

b bulldog
04-14-2007, 06:18 PM
Some think carolina will grab Olsen before we even get a shot at him.

Partial
04-15-2007, 12:09 AM
TT likes long-term production. This is why Bowe gets the nod over Meachem(1 year of huge production), Olson(workout warrior - no years of good production), and Lynch (2 years good production)

the_idle_threat
04-15-2007, 12:38 AM
TT likes long-term production. This is why Bowe gets the nod over Meachem(1 year of huge production), Olson(workout warrior - no years of good production), and Lynch (2 years good production)

Between that and the fact that Ted apparently doesn't fall in love with 40 times, I don't see Olsen in our future.

Condsidering that Olsen is on my list of biggest bust risks, I'm hoping Ted stays true to form.