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View Full Version : Todd McShay, Scouts, Inc. chat 04/19/07



motife
04-21-2007, 05:07 PM
Big Mike (Chicago, IL): How big a dropoff is there from Greg Olsen to Zach Miller? Is it worth it to go after Olsen when you could get Miller a round later?

Todd McShay: The biggest difference is speed. Miller is athletic and sure-handed, but he can't stretch the field. Olsen has the speed to do so. The problem for teams in need of TE's (Carolina, Cincy, Chicago, Seatlle, etc) is that only two TE's are worth drafting in the first two rounds. The supply does not meet the demand, which is why I expect Olsen and Miller to go higher than their respective values.


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pete (NJ): Why is the Cowboys interest in Meachem falling, and interest in Jarrett rising?

Todd McShay: Says who?


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Mike DC: Can the Skins land Calvin Johnson?

Todd McShay: I know they've shown interest but I'm not sure they have the amunition to pull off a deal. Remember, the Skins own the No. 6 overall pick but they don't have a pick in the next three rounds. They'd have to mortgage off future drafts and possibly throw a veteran into the mix.


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Bob-O (Cincy): Is it possible that the Bengals could take Ted Ginn Jr.?

Todd McShay: It's possible if he slips to No. 18 but I'd rather see them go defense with that pick. Cincy can get a good No. 3 receiver to fill Chris Henry's void in the second or third round.


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Chris (New Orleans): Todd, Do the Saints have a shot at landing a press corner at 27 or are they prime to trade down?

Todd McShay: I think they can get one of the top cover corners at No. 27. Leon Hall and Darrelle Revis will be long gone, but Texas' Aaron Ross and Arkansas' Chris Houston could be available. Also, they could trade back and still get a good value with Fresno State's Marcus McCauley or UNLV's Eric Wright.

Todd McShay: This year's CB class is interesting... Hall and Revis are the best of the bunch but they're just a notch below the level of an elite prospect. The positive, though, is that this year's crop is pretty deep, so some good players can be found in Rounds 2 and 3.


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Evan (Chicago, IL): With the Colts pick, they will take the best available, might that be Michael Bush to complement Joe Addai?

Todd McShay: I see your thinking at the position but Bush will be lucky to come off the board in Round 3. I think Indy can get a good defensive player at that spot, possibly OLB Jon Beason (Miami) or DT Justin Harrell (Tennessee).


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Joe (AZ via Chicago): MCSHAY, you have the Bears taking Beason in round 1 - who I like - but is it their top priority over offensive playmakers with Briggs still in the mix, at least for next year? Are you assuming he'll forego the $420K weekly to make a point?

Todd McShay: I think they need to address depth issues and potential future contract problems on offense, but they also need to assume Briggs will sit out some of the 2007 season and be gone in 2008. Beason would be a good value at 31. They could also get an OLB like Hampton's Justin Durant or Georgia's Tony Taylor in later rounds.


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Paras (Baltimore, MD): Todd, you have projected the Ravens picking OT Joe Staley, but shouldn't the Ravens go CB in round one and OT/OG in round two? Thanks.

Todd McShay: Sure. In a perfect world. But in this scenario Staley is a far better value than any CB still on the board. If Staley is still around at 29 I'm all but certain he becomes a Raven.


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Ryan (BUffalo): Todd, do you see the Bills being able to trade up to get Adrian Peterson if he were to slip past the Browns at 3?

Todd McShay: If they really want to they'll have the opportunity. If Cleveland goes with Quinn at No. 3, Peterson has a chance to slip. Washington (No. 6) and Minnesota (No. 7) would be all ears.


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Ryan (Home): The Redskins have a few needs on the defensive side of the ball. If Adams is gone, who do you think they pick?

Todd McShay: If the Skins are stuck at No. 6 and Adams is off the board, I think the best two options are DT Amobi Okoye and DS LaRon Landry. I have Landry rated higher but DT is a bigger need. So take your pick???


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Tim (ATL): Do you think the Titans will draft a corner now that pac man will miss the year, and if so when do you see them taking one? thanks.

Todd McShay: I think the need is definately upgraded. The addition of Nick Harper helps, but the team shold probably spend a Day 1 pick on the position. Perhaps more pressing is the need for a legit return man. A cornerback that can double as a PR and/or KR would be ideal. Texas' Aaron Ross is a possibility.

Todd McShay: Don't be surprised if the Titans spend an early Day 2 pick on a return specialist like Kansas State's Yamon Figurs.


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Drew (Cooper City Florida): Will Brady Quinn drop to the Dolphins at pick 9

Todd McShay: I would be shocked. I think Quinn could go as high as No. 3 to the Browns or fall as far as No. 7 to the Vikings. If the Vikings don't take Quinn at No. 7 I think they'll strike a deal with an interested party such as the Dolphins.


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Woody (Canton): Is Troy Smith a Day 2 pick?

Todd McShay: It's starting to look like that's the case. I still would spend a third-round pick on him... I know his weaknesses but he's a proven winner with very good athleticism and arm strength... somehow he finds a way to contribute at the next level.


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Chris (Broadview Heights, OH): What is your opinion on the Browns potentially taking Brady Quinn? I keep hearing a bunch of differing opinions.

Todd McShay: I'm not for it. I understand the value of taking a QB when you're stuck picking that high. However, while I think Quinn is good enough to warrant first-round consideration, I don't view him as a top-five type of elite prospect. His big game woes are well-documented but I'm more concerned with his accuracy issues. Bottom line: I would draft RB Adrian Peterson, assuming JaMarcus Russell is off the board.


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Ray, New York: Is Tyler Palko a Day 2 pick?

Todd McShay: I think so.. He'd fit best in a west coast system. I think he has value in Round 5 or beyond.


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Shawn (Bay Area, CA): Good stuff Todd!!! I am suprsised to see Hughes from CAL dropping so much. This is exactly what happened to Vasher from Texas a couple years ago because of a bad 40 and he turned into a Pro Bowler. Hughes could be a great cover 2 corner. How far is he going to drop?

Todd McShay: I agree. Listen, his 40 times were atrocious, but he improved them at Cal's Pro Day and he shouldn't be forced to turn in run at the next level. For a team employing a cover-2 heavy scheme, I think Hughes will be a steal in the third round. I've actually heard some people project him as a Day 2 pick. What a shame.


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Evan (NJ): Michael Bush, Brian Leonard, or Tony Hunt.... any of these 3 on the Steelers radar??

Todd McShay: They all should be... but in this order: Leonard, Hunt and Bush. The Steelers need a "hammer" back to complement Willie Parker. He shouldn't have to carry the ball 337 times and he could use a big back to take some of the short-yardage carries off his plate. Leonad would be a good value in Round 2, and Hunt and Bush project in Round 3.


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jeremy (kcmo): i know the 2007 draft is coming up, but i was wondering what player you think has the edge to be the top pick in the 2008 draft?

Todd McShay: The scary thing is that NFL area scouts are already breaking down film on the 2008 class. I would say Louisville QB Brian Brohm. But Arkansas RB Darren McFadden is my pick if he leaves early.


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Rick (Detroit): Does Trent Edwards make sense for the Lions with that early second round pick?

Todd McShay: I keep hearing that Mike Martz likes Edwards. Martz doesn't want to deal with a rookie QB from the first round b/c he knows how much pressure the team will be under to play him. That's why the Lions are very unlikely to take a QB at No. 2. They would rather take a player like DE Gaines Adams or OT Joe Thomas, and then draft a backup QB later. Best case scenario is to trade back a couple spots (or more), still get Adams or Thomas, and stockpile a couple picks for the move.

Todd McShay: A pick-for-pick trade between the Lions and Bucs would likely cost the Bucs their second and third round choices this year. Such a deal would give Detroit five picks in the top-68... that would be a tremendous deal for the Lions.


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Joe (Cincinnati): So according to your draft Ben Patrick and Marcus Thomas wont get selected?

Todd McShay: That's not true. There was an error that we corrected earlier this week. Patrick goes off the board in Round 3 and Thomas is pick No. 99 to Indy.


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Michael (St. Louis): C'mon Todd, just one Rams question and then you're done. What are the odds that Okoye is still on the board @ #13 for the rams? If he's not, what do you think they should do? could they trade up/down to get a better value?

Todd McShay: That's a deal. First, I don't think Okoye slips that far. If he does, he's a natural fit for the Rams. Alan Branch has a much better chance of slipping and No. 13 would be a good value for him (at least in my opinion). If not, DE is a possibility with Nebraska's Adam Carriker and Arkansas' Jamaal Anderson possibly both on the board. Finally, while it doesn't make sense to me, it sounds like the Rams have interest in Ted Ginn Jr. at No. 13, as well.


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Cameron (CO): Buzzer Beater...Broncos take a LB in the first round now that Wilson has been released?

Todd McShay: If he's really gone, I think LB becomes a much bigger need. If the right pass rusher isn't available at No. 21, Miami's Jon Beason becomes a possibility. They might even trade back a few spots (assuming, of course, another team wants to deal up) and still get Beason later in Round 1.


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Kyle (Atlanta): Slip me in before 1 pm. Any chance atlanta lands CJ?

Todd McShay: I say it won't happen.

Todd McShay: Another strong showing from SportsNation. Only one more chat left. I'm going to miss all the harassment when the draft is over. Next week should be a blast. I'll chat with you then.

motife
04-21-2007, 05:19 PM
(for the real junkies, almost every ESPN Insider guy had a draft chat late this week.. Here's some from guys who seemed to know something..)

Marc (Honolulu, Hawaii): KC, I totally agree with you on your most recent article in regards to Charles Woodson's metrics. When totally healthy, only Champ Bailey and Woodson has all the skill sets to be a complete corner. What seperates Bailey and Woodson is that they both stand 6'1" and are supremely athletic. The other corners are either too short or either are a product of their system(Ronde Barber). Bailey and Woodson have proved that they can have good seasons with more than one team (Bailey - Redskins/Broncos, Woodson - Raiders/Packers)which shows how good they are individually. I can't believe how Woodson had such good metrics, lead the NFC in interceptions and forced fumbles among corners and still didn't make the pro bowl. Do you agree?

KC Joyner: Hello all! Hope the week has been going well for you. Marc, I couldn't agree more with you on Woodson and the Pro Bowl. DeAngelo Hall has a band of rooters in the TV commentator booths so he gets the nod due to hype. It's not right I tell you!


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Ed (Pittsburgh): Cadillac Williams had a big sophomore slump. Will the TB upgrades on the o-line cause him to bounce back or should we expect more of the same?

KC Joyner: TB's O line has been an issue for Gruden's entire tenure so it begs the question if it's talent or the coaching. They have good young players on their line so if there was any year it would pan out for TB, this would be it.


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Tony (Rochester, NY): Hey KC, Been wondering about JP Losman? What were his 2006 metric like? What's your analysis of his play last year?


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J (Milwaukee): How were JP Losman's bad decision metrics this year? And were they an improvement over last year? To the untrained eye it sure seemed that way.

KC Joyner: You guys are something like the 4th or 5th persons to ask me about Losman in the past few days! Losman had very good deep metrics (5th best YPA in bombs) but his combined medium/short metrics were terrible, especially the bad decision percentage. Overall his bad decision percentage was around the Jon Kitna level, if that tells you anything!


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Boston Bob: Hey KC, looking forward to SF:2007. Will you have receiving metrics for RBs?What were Ellis Hobbs metrics over the last 2 seasons? Do you think Tory James can play safety? Thanks! -BB

KC Joyner: Bob, it's possible James could play safety but if he covers as bad there as he does at CB, he wouldn't be much of a help. Hobbs has been around the 8-9 YPA mark the past two years, numbers that he really needs to improve on.


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Do you expect the Saints to offer a contract to Jason David? It would only cost them a 4th rounder if the Colts decline to match it.

KC Joyner: David has only put up one good year of metrics so I think that's why Indy didn't go all out to keep him. He's a risk for NO, and one they shouldn't spend a lot of dough or picks on.


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Losman gets help with the additions of Walker, Dockery, and Whittle to the offensive line. Pass protection may have been a part of his bad decisions. Do you think these additions will help him even though there's no running back threat yet?

KC Joyner: Lane, all of those things could help him but my scout's eye says that Losman just doesn't see the short/medium parts of the field very well. He's a gunslinger and the best way to use a gunslinger is to try to get his YPA high enough to offset the bad decisions.


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Ben (Pinehurst, NC): Are Ellis Hobbs' numbers bad enough to support Philip Rivers' contention after the Chargers/Pats playoff game that Hobbs is the "sorriest corner in the league"?

KC Joyner: Hobbs isn't very good but he's not the sorriest CB in the league. The metrics say that honor belongs to Travis Fisher.


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Brooksie (CO): Is there any truth to the Broncos trading up to #2 to draft Calvin Johnson? Thanks for answering

KC Joyner: That's a new one to me, Brooksie. I might expect Oakland to stick it to Denver and take Johnson if the Broncos did trade up, so it would be a risky move.


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Dan (Voorhees, NJ): Would Lee Evans be headed to the Hall of Fame if he played in the Eagles offense?

KC Joyner: He'd be closer to it than he is now. Andy Reid knows how to use a vertical threat (e.g. Owens, Stallworth, etc.)


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Jonathan (Dallas, TX): Hey KC. Gotta love thursdays. It seems to me the Niners are developing their offense to resemble that of the Chargers and Cheifs. Dominating running back, all-pro potential tight-end, and smart effecient quarterback who can make plays when they have to, and receivers that leave quite a bit to be desired. How close are they to becoming an offense on par witht he likes of the Cheifs and Chargers?

KC Joyner: Pretty darn close. The age and brittleness of the O line are worrisome, so they could use a young player or two in the draft. Getting a bit more production out of their receivers would be good, and Davis needs to develop into that great TE, something he definitely wasn't last year.


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D(LA, from Quincy, Mass): hey KC, what did you think of signing by pats with all WRs and do their(stallworth, etc) from last will improve the offense from last year?

KC Joyner: I think if Tom Brady could get last year's team to within a couple of minutes of the Super Bowl with a suspect offense, giving him all of the tools he has this year makes NE the inside favorite for the Super Bowl.


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): A lot of mock drafts have Gaines Adams being selected with the #2 pick. Wouldn't the Lions be making the same mistake the Texans did last year by selecting Mario Williams? Why draft a DE when you could have a potential superstar at QB, RB, or WR?

KC Joyner: Lane, I think the Mario deal will look much better for Houston in a few years but the question you ask about Detroit is quite valid. How could they turn up a QB? They like to say that Kitna is the answer but he's 35 (or will be this year) and not very good at that. Even if he does help you turn the corner in the next couple of years, what then? He'll be 37 and on his way out the door. That Detroit would skip one of these QB prospects is simply amazing.


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James (Los Angeles, Ca): Why are the Raiders thinking about taking Calvin Johnson. Don't they already have three good receivers?

KC Joyner: I think Oakland is just trying to drum up interest for the #1 pick. I will be very surprised if a deal isn't made, but it probably won't be until much closer to the draft.


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Ben (Boston, MA): KC, love the chat. To your response to the Denver Broncos question. You said the Raiders would probably stick it to them if they made the move. Well couldnt that just be countered by Detroit and Denver not doing the deal until after Oakland has made its selection? That would leave them in a perfect position as long as Oaklan took Russell.

KC Joyner: Very good point, Ben. It would pretty much have to be a draft day deal.


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James (Los Angeles, Ca): What does your analytical eye say about who will be the better pro Quinn or Russell. I must say that Quinns skill players and offensive line did him no favors at all.

KC Joyner: I have to caveat these two comments by saying that this is solely based on my scout's eye and not on a metric analysis. In my mind's eye I see Russell as a possible Akili Smith. I see Quinn as a Trent Dilfer. I'm really not sold on either of them.


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Unless Vince Young, Matt Leinart or Reggie Bush don't make the Hall of Fame I don't see how the pick can be justified. Maybe if the Texans win a Super Bowl or two but the LB they selected in the 2nd round might have something to say about that.

KC Joyner: Lane, Mario got a bad rap because he's a defensive player and got hurt early on. Once he got healthy and the Texans figured out how to use him, he was pressuring the pocket quite well. Let Houston become a playoff contender and have Williams put up 10 sacks one year and the deal will not look nearly as bad. I don't have Bush, Leinart and Young all in the HOF yet.


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Brad(NM): Hey KC, I tried to get in all hour last week w/no luck..and I'm a regular! What are Donte Whitner's metrics and will he fill the void left by Clements?

KC Joyner: Brad, I promise that I'm not trying to ignore you. I was sick as a dog this past week and didn't get to look at safety metrics, so I don't have Whitner's numbers. I'll see if I can get to them this week and will run your question first thing!


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John (Los Angeles, Ca): Do your metrics take into account unlucky quaterbacks? That is to say quarterbacks that have a high percentage of interceptions from tips and drops by receivers? Also do your metrics take into account dropped touchdowns passes?

KC Joyner: John, I have done studies on just such items. I plan on doing more for both ESPN.com and in my book Scientific Football 2007 (available for a special pre-order price at www.thefootballscientist.com - only website plug of the entire chat!)


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Chris (Baltimore, MD): Sorry KC...I'm a bit confused... "That Detroit would skip one of these QB prospects is simply amazing." Shortly followed by: "I see Russell as a possible Akili Smith. I see Quinn as a Trent Dilfer." Huh????

KC Joyner: Good point Chris but a lot of scouts disagree with my assessment of Russell and Quinn. If the Lions scouts have higher opinions of those two, or of any other QB, then it is still a wonder that Detroit would skip over them.


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Grant (NY): Come on.. the Bears' Mark Anderson put up 12 sacks playing half the time. Mario was a mistake given the other options. And ESPECIALLY with the knowledge that they had about Dom Davis then.

KC Joyner: Grant, let's look at this for a second. At the time Houston thought Carr would bounce back, so they had a big name QB. Yes, Davis had an injury but Reggie Bush still hasn't proven he can be a full time backfield RB. He was a WR for most of the year last season. The Texans also needed a pass rusher and Williams certainly looked like a dominant one of those. I can't call the Williams pick a bust after one season any more than I can say that the Young/Leinart/Bush picks are all time great ones. NFL history is littered with one hit wonders. Let's wait more than one year before deciding this issue


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Jeremy (Bellevue, Wa): Hey KC, what do you think about the metrics of Pollard? He doesnt seem to fit the pass cathing TE Role that the Hawks like.

KC Joyner: Pollard didn't get enough pass attempts to be listed as a qualifier in my TE lists in 2006 but his 2005 numbers were mediocre at best. I don't see him doing much for Seattle.


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Ray, New York: There are rumblings that the Welker trade really messed up the trading block this early season because he wasn't worth the price tag. If Welker is worth a duece, then was is Moss worth? Any truth to these rumblings?

KC Joyner: I don't know about the rumblings but Welker's metrics certainly weren't very good (7.2 YPA). I will caveat that by pointing out that 78 of his 97 pass attempts were short ones, so he never got a chance to build up his YPA with deeper passes. Even so, I can't see Welker being worth the price NE paid, but they are making that big one-year Super Bowl push.


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Aaron (Richmond, VA): Do you think the league should aggresively investigate and punish whichever team leaked the info about Johnson, Okoye and Adams? It seems that whoever did probably had an agenda (hoping they would fall in the draft) and future players will be a lot less likely to be honest.

KC Joyner: I would have to say yes, Aaron. Info like that should stay confidential and if it keeps getting out like this, players are going to be more apt to hide such things.


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mike (az): KC, I really respect and enjoy your metric work. WHich is why its all the more heartbraking when you NEVER(or not very often at least) answer cardinals questions. I really see a lot of potential in this team(lots of red kool aid) please tell me you agree?

KC Joyner: Mike, I never answer Cards questions because I rarely ever get them! Believe me, I'd rather talk about a wide variety of teams than make it Buffalo centric (no offense Bills fans!). OK, my take on the Cards is that I really like what I see. They are aggressively working the O line and if they get that unit fixed, the Cards offense will be one of the top 5 in the league. Their defense still needs a lot of work but I like the direction this team is going in.


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Jeremy (Bellevue, Wa): KC, were can we see some of your current metrics and what is the release date of the next publication that we can get all the metrics in? Thanks for all the good work.

KC Joyner: ESPN's Fantasy Football Magazine will carry a good number of the bread and butter metrics. I believe that mag is due to come out in June. SF 2007 will come out in early July and my draft guide will follow shortly after that.


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Brad (Lansing MI): So with a scouts eye you do not like Quin and Russel why is it a mistake for Detroit to not take them? Would it be more prudent then to get Thomas or CJ and then grab a Trent Edwards or Kevin Kolb later and try to get more bang for the buck?

KC Joyner: Brad, I have to clear up my comments from earlier. Detroit would be best served by trading down from the #2 pick. If they can't do that, they should take the best value on the board. The Lions seem to be taking the tack that QB is not a position of need and it most certainly is for them.


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Adam (baton rouge,LA): Would Jason David be an upgrade over Fred Thomas for the Saints? Also, if the colts dont match the saints offer for David, and the saints acquire him. What direction will they go with for the 27th pick? Do they still take a CB like Ross or Houston if they are there or do they go for the best available? Maybe Dwayne Bowe??


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Chris (New Orleans, LA): KC, I read your comments on Jason David. Please elaborate how he compares to the saints existing CB - Fred Thomas and Mike McKenzie. Thank you Sir.

KC Joyner: First, the good news on David. He is coming off the best season of his career but he still posted a 7.8 YPA. Two seasons ago I called him the worst CB in the NFL. He's not the best bet for the Saints, that's for certain.


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Todd (Detroit): I hope you're feeling better this week KC. The analysts on NFL live today there's no way Tony Romo can make the Pro Bowl again this year. Does he have a hangover or does he prove them wrong?

KC Joyner: Todd, Romo's metrics last year were among the best in the NFL. Yeah, he had the bad ending but I'll bet he is resilient enough to bounce back and return to form.


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Jason (Tacoma): do you have the metricks on Kelly Jennings? is he a good fit opposite Trufant?

KC Joyner: Jennings had the best metrics of any Seattle CB (5.9 YPA). Now that was mostly as a backup, so I think his YPA will go up as a starter, but I think he'll be a very good fit on the other side of Trufant.


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Glenn(Niagria Falls): How are your metrics on your evaluations on players? Are you right more than your wrong? Are you ever wrong?

KC Joyner: Glenn, the metrics are simply another piece of information I use to analyze a player. I'm right a lot more often than I'm wrong but I've certainly been wrong on a player.


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Jason J Oviedo FL: KC You mentioned Chris Chambers averaged a drop per game in your most recent article but STATS INC says he only had 8 drops for the season. Why is there a difference?

KC Joyner: Some of these things are subjective. I may see a pass and say that the receiver should have caught it, while another person sees it and says the receiver had no chance at it.


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Rob (Toledo): With the top 2 QBs being potential busts, would Detroit do just as well by drafting, say, Troy Smith in round 4?

KC Joyner: Sounds like a plan to me, Rob!


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Pat: KC...I have read a lot of stats on how comp% & # of starts are good indicators of how 1st round QB's will do in the pro's. In that respect, Russell looks like a huge gamble - the guy's stock shot up entirely based on this year, and really one game.

KC Joyner: Pat, you hit it on the head on Russell. That and the rumors that he has trouble keeping the weight off are both big concerns (no pun intended).


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fred,miami: hey kc what should the dolphins do with their current QB situaton

KC Joyner: Look elsewhere, and I don't mean Kansas City. Trent Green's metrics were quite poor last year and he's old and coming off of a serious injury. How they think he is the answer is beyond me.


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Raymond (Baltimore): Hey KC, who is a player that you've been wrong about?

KC Joyner: Vikings fans like to remind me about Darren Sharper. A couple of seasons ago I said that Sharper's career was over due to poor play and injuries in his last year in GB. He came back and had a dominant year and Vikes fans came out of the woodwork to tell me about it.


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Ajit, Saratoga CA: HE's been wrong about Peyton Manning!

KC Joyner: Now, Ajit, that's not funny!


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CHUB (Lincoln,NE): Both Nathan Vashar and Charles Tillman contracts are up at the end of the year. Who would you keep based on metrics?

KC Joyner: Vashar. His YPA was .7 better than Tillman last year and I believe Vasher is also younger by a couple of years.


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): He's been right about Philadelphia.

KC Joyner: Thank you Lane (or is that just another Hawaii shot at Philadelphia?)


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Terrence ( Charlotte): WRONG ABOUT STEVE SMITH

KC Joyner: I beg to differ, Terrence. I said before the season that Smith was one of the best short/medium pass receivers in the league and adding a short/medium pass receiver in Key would hurt Smith's numbers. Smith's numbers were down and that's a big reason why.


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Frank (Arlington, VA): KC, I'm sitting here laying on my couch recovering from knee surgery, so please answer my question!!! How good were Drew Brees' deep pass metrics last year? He seemed to really improve in that area, especially the home run ball. Very suprising coming off the injury.

KC Joyner: Frank, hope the knee is feeling better! Brees had great deep pass numbers for the 2nd year in a row. He keeps proving that it isn't arm strength that is the biggest factor in being vertically effective.


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Albi (Manhattan): Wrong about Aaron Brooks, oh wait, no...

KC Joyner: Albi sticks up for me! I'll say this about being right/wrong on players. I make predictions on well over half of the players in the league every year. Even if I got 90% of them right, I'd be wrong on 60+ players.


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CLEVELAND FANS: We need to know how Charlie Fryes metrics look so we can decide about BQ!!!

KC Joyner: Cleveland fans, if you were regulars you would have seen my comments on Frye the past two weeks! Low YPA, low bad decision percentage. He needs to improve the short and deep pass numbers to get the YPA up to a solid level and needs to do so without staring at his receivers so darn much.


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AZ (Miami FL): G-Men Question - What do your metrics say about the Giants secondary, mainly Madison and Webster? They looked terrible at times last year (especially Webster).

KC Joyner: Webster's numbers weren't good but they weren't as bad as I thought they would be (8.3 YPA). Madison's numbers were quite solid (6.9 YPA) and he had one of the highest success percentages of any CB.


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Travis, Canada: Kc, Stillwaiting on those cookies, also what does the metric say about a clubs cheerleaders and whom has the hottest group?

KC Joyner: Travis, you haven't ever sent me your address. I can't just mail them to Travis in Canada, you know!


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Chris (Philly): Early fantasy question: Would you keep Willie Parker or Willis McGahee? I was leaning towards McGahee with the possiblity of Parker losing goal line carries to possibly a bigger back that the Steelers may draft??

KC Joyner: My gut reaction would be McGahee. Having said that, I would take the schedule of each team into strong consideration. I don't know who has the tougher schedule but that would enter into the analysis in a big way.


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Brian (Phoenix): Hey KC...I was wondering about how a receiver changing teams affects metrics the next year. Say in the case of Ashley Lelie, he claims he didn't have time to develop enough chemistry with Vick last year, but now he's working with Alex Smith earlier in the offseason. Could this translate to improved numbers? Thanks and enjoy the chats!

KC Joyner: Lelie's problem in Denver was being with a coach who wanted to turn him into the next Rod Smith rather than the next Cliff Branch. His problem in Atlanta was getting there in midseason. If SF will simply use his skills and not try to change him, Lelie should be a dominant WR next year.


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SCOTT(SYRACUSE): Weak O-Line in B More and twinkle toes will suffer

KC Joyner: I think Scott doesn't much care for McGahee!


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JEFF I (NY,NY): KC - Chad Pennington is a polarizing figure for Jet fans. Most either love him or hate him. What do your numbers say about him?

KC Joyner: Very efficient QB. Good success percentage, though he could use to improve his short pass YPA. His bad decision percentage is very low. He can only throw certain types of vertical passes but teams still haven't figured out how to make him pay for this limitation.


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G. (Coral Springs,Fl): Chambers metrix if you look went up as did the QB production went up, do you think in Cam's system that he can be a pro bowl caliber again?

KC Joyner: I tell you, I was a Fins fan for nearly 30 years (as was my dad and brothers) but the way the Miami fans are getting on my case of late, you wouldn't know it! I said in my ESPN.com article this week that Chambers can bounce back if he'll just catch the passes that he dropped last year. So, yes, I think he can bounce back to Pro Bowl form.


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Brooksie (CO): Hey KC Lelie's problem in Denver was he couldn't catch a pass. Denver used him as a verticle threat but he would end up droping the pass. It was Lelie's fault not Coach Shan

KC Joyner: Brooksie, all I can say is that in 2004 Lelie was the best vertical WR in the NFL. I don't think that was enough for Shanahan and that's why he ran Lelie out of town eventually.


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Ajit, Saratoga CA: IS that why you harbor some dislike for Manning? Because marino has been totally disrespected and yet Manning wasn't before this year?

KC Joyner: Look, I've been on Peyton's case before this year because he was anointed as the best QB ever and he hadn't even won a conference championship game. Heck, up until a couple of years ago he had almost no playoff success. I can't stand seeing players getting more credit than their performance says they deserve, so that's why I was on Manning's case so much.


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Aron (Coconut Creek Fla): Hey I think your work is really interesting. I can never get a question answered about these two corners. I was wondering what do your metrics say about Nnamdi Asomugha and Fabian Washington?

KC Joyner: Aron, Asomugha had a legit beef about not being a Pro Bowler (at least not at first). His YPA was very good (6.9) and he had a great success percentage. Washington had numbers just a bit lower than Asomugha's (7.2 YPA) but he's still a very good CB.


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Scott: (Charleston, SC): Hey KC, what do you think Philly's chances are in the NFC this year and what position do you think they need to focus on most in the draft??

KC Joyner: I'd say secondary. Their deep pass numbers on defense were quite bad and I'm not sold on their nickel CB solution.


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John (Honolulu, HI): watching Lelie in college convinced me, that if used right he can be incredible, maybe SF should call up June Jones and get some advice from him.

KC Joyner: John, if Antonio Bryant's vertical metrics are any indication, Mike Nolan already has a pretty good idea of how to integrate a deep threat into his offense. Well, I've got to call it a day. I hope to see everyone next week!