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motife
04-22-2007, 06:21 PM
Updated: April 19, 2007, 10:43 AM ET
Moulds still deserves a job By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

I recently completed an analysis of my major 2006 metrics for inclusion in ESPN's 2007 Fantasy Football Magazine and I thought I might share some of the most interesting metric highs and lows.

Tom Brady led all quarterbacks with the lowest bad decision percentage for the second year in a row. Brady had a mere five bad decisions in 533 dropbacks, which translates into a meager 0.9 bad decision percentage. If this metric is any indication, no quarterback is better at reading defenses.

Rex Grossman was roundly criticized last season for forcing passes into coverage. Grossman did lead the league in near interception percentage (7.3), but Brett Favre actually topped Grossman for the highest total of near interceptions (Favre 44, Grossman 37).

Terrell Owens may tout himself as one of the best receivers in the NFL, but the metrics say he might not even be the best receiver on his team. Terry Glenn's 10.3 total yards per attempt was more than 2 yards higher than Owens' figure (8.0). In fact, Glenn's YPA was higher at every depth level, including short passes, which is said to be Owens' specialty because of his ability to gain yards after the catch.

If Bruce Arians, Pittsburgh's new offensive coordinator, wants to use the short passing game more often, he has the ideal receiver in Santonio Holmes. Holmes was simply phenomenal on short passes last year, averaging 10.5 YPA on these routes. Holmes had four short passes go for 30-plus yards, so Arians will look to take advantage of his qualities in 2007.

There were two surprises in the highest and lowest success percentages for wide receivers. The lowest success percentage belonged to Chris Chambers (44.8). His 16 drops certainly didn't help, so Chambers is capable of bouncing back.

The highest success percentage belonged to Eric Moulds (79.7). While his 7.8 YPA was not all that great, any wide receiver still able to post a success percentage that high deserves a roster spot somewhere in this league.

I'm usually a big supporter of any personnel move the Patriots make, but I don't understand the recent signing of Tory James. James does intercept plenty of passes, but he ranked 93rd in total YPA last year, giving up a whopping 11.0 yards on every pass thrown his way. James will need to show at least a 3-yard improvement in this category for his acquisition to be considered a good move.

There was a lot of grumbling among Green Bay fans when Charles Woodson and Al Harris were both snubbed for the Pro Bowl. The metrics indicate they certainly had a legitimate beef, especially in Woodson's case. Woodson ranked sixth in the league with a 5.3 YPA, and Harris ranked 18th with a 6.3 YPA. Consider that Ronde Barber and DeAngelo Hall, the two starting NFC cornerbacks, had YPAs of 7.9 (Barber) and 9.2 (Hall).

Finally, if you want to know why Damon Huard has seemingly beaten out Trent Green for the starting quarterback gig in Kansas City, look no further than their bad decision percentages from last year. Huard's rate (1.2) was the third-best in the league, while Green's (3.9) was the seventh-worst. Green is finding out the hard way that when you force passes into coverage at three times the rate of your competitor, it can cost you the job.

KC Joyner Glossary
Bad decision: A quarterback is charged with a bad decision when he does something with the ball that either leads to, or nearly leads to, a turnover. The most common bad decisions are forcing passes into coverage or staring at receivers.
Near interception: Near interceptions are either dropped interceptions or interceptions that landed close enough to a defender that he could have had a chance to catch the ball had luck been on his side.

YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.

Success Percentage: The percentage of plays a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.

prsnfoto
04-23-2007, 09:35 AM
Yet Grossman had a very good O line and awesome running attack to help him not to mention the fact he had 4 targets to Brett's 2 each time he dropped back. Sometimes stats don't mean shit. Hopefully the line improves this year, it was college level two years ago and NFLE last year the next step is NFL calibur.

Partial
04-23-2007, 09:41 AM
These stats are always quite eye-opening and really do tell it all.

Freak Out
04-23-2007, 11:26 AM
None of this is news. We have always known #4 likes to fire that sucker around like a madman and that Woodson and Harris got screwed.

MadtownPacker
04-23-2007, 11:31 AM
"near interception"?? Since when did that become a stat? If that is the case then Favre is likely the career "near interception" leader with all the times he has threaded the needle in tight coverage.

pittstang5
04-23-2007, 11:37 AM
"near interception"?? Since when did that become a stat? If that is the case then Favre is likely the career "near interception" leader with all the times he has threaded the needle in tight coverage.

Plus, don't forget all the times he fires a smokin rocket for five yards to an open Bubba Franks (or other), the receiver can't handle it because of the velocity, the ball tips up 10 feet into the air and hangs there for what seems like an enternity and all waiting defense players have half a day to get to it.

Partial
04-23-2007, 11:56 AM
"near interception"?? Since when did that become a stat? If that is the case then Favre is likely the career "near interception" leader with all the times he has threaded the needle in tight coverage.

Well, I'd think he'd be the near interception leader considering he will be the interception leader after this season.

Fritz
04-23-2007, 01:15 PM
"near interception"?? Since when did that become a stat? If that is the case then Favre is likely the career "near interception" leader with all the times he has threaded the needle in tight coverage.

Hey, Mad, this stat is much like my own favorite college statistic: almost got laid (AGL's). I led our dorm in AGL's but was last in the league in terms of actually getting laid.

Fascinating stuff. I believe that soon we will see "near touchdown" passes (NTP's) as stats. This could be handy for agents in negotiations.

Heck, if this kind of thinking had been around a few years back Antuan Edwards could have led the Pack in NT's (near tackles) instead of l;eading the team in missed tackles.

prsnfoto
04-23-2007, 01:17 PM
"near interception"?? Since when did that become a stat? If that is the case then Favre is likely the career "near interception" leader with all the times he has threaded the needle in tight coverage.

Well, I'd think he'd be the near interception leader considering he will be the interception leader after this season.

I think he is saying with the velocity Brett throws at he can afford to throw more than say a fag like Grossman. Risk vs. reward I have only seen two bad years in his career and one wasn't last year the risk has always won by leaps and bounds. Your right though he would lead the catagory, but man think of the attempts he has thrown and still has a canon.

prsnfoto
04-23-2007, 01:20 PM
"near interception"?? Since when did that become a stat? If that is the case then Favre is likely the career "near interception" leader with all the times he has threaded the needle in tight coverage.

Hey, Mad, this stat is much like my own favorite college statistic: almost got laid (AGL's). I led our dorm in AGL's but was last in the league in terms of actually getting laid.

Fascinating stuff. I believe that soon we will see "near touchdown" passes (NTP's) as stats. This could be handy for agents in negotiations.

Heck, if this kind of thinking had been around a few years back Antuan Edwards could have led the Pack in NT's (near tackles) instead of l;eading the team in missed tackles.

That was priceless. There is also the NGLWABOHH "near good looking with a bag on her head".