LB Patrick Willis turns scouts into believers.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.packersnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070426/PKR01/704260528/1989

Posted April 26, 2007

NFL draft preview: LB Willis turns scouts into believers

By Pete Dougherty
pdougher@greenbaypressgazette.com

Going into last season, NFL scouts liked Patrick Willis as a football player but had major reservations about his speed.

Mike Archer, a former Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers coach and defensive coordinator at the University of Kentucky last season, heard it from scouts over and over as they came through campus and asked for his opinion on players around the Southeastern Conference.

The scouts told him Willis ran the 40 in 4.65 seconds, which is OK for the position but not of first-round material.

"I said, 'Well, then he plays a lot faster than he times,' " Archer says he told them. "I said, 'You guys get hung up on all that timing,' I said he plays at 4.4."

Turns out, Archer was right. By early in the offseason, some scouts projected Willis would run well and was probably the highest-rated linebacker in this draft, and he proved it by running the 40 in 4.37 seconds in a campus workout.

"I watched him play (Kentucky) two years ago with a broken thumb and his hand in a cast, and I watched him make every tackle up in Oxford (Miss.)," Archer said. "This year, we played them at our place, we beat 'em, and he made every tackle. The guy's a tackling machine."

Willis almost surely will be the first linebacker off the board in this weekend's draft, and probably can play any of the three linebacker spots in a 4-3 defense, as well as either of the two inside linebackers in a 3-4.

Willis probably will be selected shortly after the 10th pick overall, though there's an outside chance he'll be available when the Packers select at No. 16 overall.

His addition would give the Packers outstanding talent at linebacker along with Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk, but considering the Packers just extended Barnett's contract and picked Hawk No. 5 overall in last year's draft, it would be a risky move to take Willis with their first-rounder this year.

NFL defenses play about half the game with at least one linebacker on the bench on nickel and dime downs, so it's hard to see General Manager Ted Thompson putting that many premium resources into his linebackers when one of the three probably would be sitting half the game. If they played a 3-4 defense, it might make more sense, but there's no indication the Packers are planning or equipped on their coaching staff for such a change.

Willis, who made 137 tackles last season, including 11½ for losses and three sacks, probably will be a top-12 to -14 pick, doesn't rate quite as highly as Hawk did when the Packers drafted him last year.

"I'd say No. 1 with Hawk, there were no holes in the guy at all. He was as solid a pick as you could get," said the college scouting director for one NFL team. 'He had good size, he could run, all the measurables, all that stuff. Willis, I think the injuries have been a little bit of a question, and in comparison to A.J, he might not play as consistently as productive. His flashes might be bigger, and the guy makes a lot of plays, don't get me wrong. But on a consistent down-in, down-out basis, A.J. is probably a little more steady."

[RashanGary]

I love Patrick Willis. He reminds me a lot of Ray Lewis.

[Partial]

I love Patrick Willis. He reminds me a lot of Ray Lewis.

Nah, he doesn't have the nastiness of Ray Lewis. He is more like a Briggs in my opinion. He will be a very good player.

[RashanGary]

I think Ray's nastiness is sometimes overrated because of how he acts after plays.

[Partial]

I think Ray's nastiness is sometimes overrated because of how he acts after plays.

Nah, he sticks his nose into a lot of plays merely to disrupt stuff. Vilma reminds me a lot of Lewis, actually.

[woodbuck27]

This fella see's it another way.

http://www.mercextra.com/blogs/niners/2007/04/19/why-patrick-willis-scares-me/

Why Patrick Willis scares me

By Vince Chhabria
Thursday, April 19th, 2007 at 10:25 pm in General news.

There’s been a lot of speculation, on this site and elsewhere, that the 49ers are targeting Ole Miss inside linebacker Patrick Willis with the 11th pick in the draft. That could be right.

After all, he is known to be an extremely high character guy who goes 100% on every snap and lives at the practice facility. We know how much Nolan values that, and rightfully so. Willis is also fast: he ran the 40-yard dash in under 4.5 at the combine and was clocked at 4.37 at his pro day workout. He impressed at the senior bowl. And he’s a linebacker — you can never have too many linebackers in the 3-4.

So why does Patrick Willis scare me?

First, let me confess that I don’t watch much college football. Between my day job and pro football, there just isn’t enough time left in the week. So I’ve never seen Patrick Willis play.

But I watch the draft, read the draft guides, and watch the draft preview shows. I watch players move up and down mock draft boards during the months of March and April. I follow how players do once they get to the NFL.

And if there’s one thing I do know, it’s this: as a general matter, players who move up the board after the end of the college season tend to underperform.

A couple recent examples will suffice.

In the 2005 combine Matt Jones ran a sub-4.4 forty and made a spectacular one-handed catch during receiver drills. At the time Mike Mayock called it the “million-dollar catch,” and he was right — Jones shot up to the first round after being projected as a third-round project. The Jaguars took him at 21, and he has done nothing for them.

That same year, Troy Williamson came out of nowhere to be drafted seventh by the Vikings. It was all because of his 4.3 forty time at the combine. But two years later, the Vikings are sending him to wide receiver remedial school.

And then there’s Manny Lawson, who I’ve already complained about enough. Many projected him as a third-rounder before the senior bowl and the combine.

Certainly there are exceptions to this trend.

One player that comes to mind is Raiders CB Fabian Washington, who shot into the first round because of his speed but has developed into a fine NFL cornerback. Nonetheless, I think it’s safe to say that as a general matter, teams should be wary of guys who climb the charts after their real games are done.

Patrick Willis is one of those guys.

He had been on the radar as a potential late first-rounder. But after his pro day, NFL.com had this to say:

“Willis (6-1, 237 pounds) ran the 40-yard dash in 4.37 and 4.38. He also had a 4.37 short shuttle and 7.10 three-cone drill. He stood on his numbers from the Combine for the rest. He had a phenomenal workout and clearly made several seven-figure increments in his rookie contract.”

Many now project him as a top-ten pick.

Maybe Willis will be a great NFL player. But his offseason rise scares me.