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Ballboy
05-11-2007, 03:25 PM
Interesting post from CBSSportsline:



Three years and clout for Bolts, Bears, Jets; Bucs three and out
May 10, 2007
By Pete Prisco
CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer
Tell Pete your opinion!





We live in a world of immediacy. We want everything right now, which is why we grade NFL Drafts the day after they finish, time element be damned.

But that's not really fair to the men who put in the work and make those picks, which is why people in the NFL hate those grades. For those of us who do the grading, we do so with an idea of how we think things will turn out, but we never really know. We're often as wrong as some of the teams doing the picking.


Snagging a franchise QB like Philip Rivers in a draft-day deal makes for an A-plus. (US Presswire)
Those grades are really just speculative in nature.

The only fair way to grade a draft is to wait three years. That gives players the time to develop, the time to show their teams that they made the right moves.

It's also enough time for the fair dissemination of those dreaded "bust" labels.

So in keeping with the tradition here of grading the drafts three years later, we bring you the 2004 NFL Draft grades.

Time has allowed these grades to become much more relevant than those we did the day after the 2004 draft.

Arizona Cardinals: They used the third-overall pick on receiver Larry Fitzgerald, which was a good pick. Second-round pick Karlos Dansby starts at linebacker and third-round pick Darnell Dockett is one of their best defensive players. The rest of the draft didn't produce much, although fourth-round pick Alex Stepanovich and sixth-rounder Nick Leckey have both started at center.

Grade: B This was a pretty good draft for this team, and the top three players all playing major roles now.

Atlanta Falcons: Getting corner DeAngelo Hall with their first pick was a great move, but receiver Michael Jenkins, their second first-round pick, hasn't panned out. That takes the grade down. But they did get quarterback Matt Schaub in the third round, and he brought a nice draft bounty in a trade this year. Linebacker Demorrio Williams, who is a starter, came in the fourth round. He recently suffered a pectoral injury that could keep him out for the year.

Grade: B-minus Missing on Jenkins takes the grade down.

Baltimore Ravens: They didn't have a first-round pick -- having traded it the year before for the right to draft Kyle Boller -- so this draft didn't produce much. There is not one starter from this draft on the Ravens' current roster. Second-round pick Dwan Edwards is a backup, but that's it. Receivers Devard Darling (third) and Clarence Moore (fifth) are also backups.

Grade: D Surprisingly, they didn't get much out of this draft, which is different for this organization. Even with Boller counting, it's not good.


Who is the best offensive player from the '04 NFL Draft?
Eli Manning
Roy Williams
Philip Rivers
Steven Jackson
Larry Fitzgerald
Ben Roethlisberger




Buffalo Bills: This was the draft the Bills landed Lee Evans with their first-round pick then traded back into the round to get quarterback J.P. Losman. With that being the core of their passing game, that's good drafting. Losman really came on last season and Evans is a big-play threat. Other than third-round pick Tim Anderson, they didn't get much else.

Grade: C This grade is for hitting the first two -- at least it looked that way late in 2006 -- but some still have doubts about Losman.

Carolina Panthers: At one point, this looked like it might be a good draft, but it has just been OK. First-round pick Chris Gamble is a decent corner, but he's not an elite player. The only other starter out of this draft is tackle Travelle Wharton, and he's coming off a torn ACL. Second-round pick Keary Colbert and fifth-round pick Drew Carter will be in the mix for time at receiver, but so for Colbert has to be considered a bust.

Grade: C Unless Gamble takes his game to a new level, it's not a good draft.

Chicago Bears: The Bears got four starters out of their draft. The first four picks were all contributors to the Super Bowl team last year. The first-round pick was tackle Tommie Harris, a force in the middle of their defensive line until getting hurt last season. He's a Pro Bowl player. Second-round pick Tank Johnson is a good player when he stays away from off-the-field issues. In the third round, the Bears got speedy receiver Bernard Berrian and in the fourth round they got starting corner Nathan Vasher. Both are good players.

Grade: A When you go 4-for-4 with your first four picks, that's special, even if Johnson is an off-the-field problem.

Cincinnati Bengals: The best pick was fourth-round defensive end Robert Geathers, who they just gave a big contract this year. He has good pass-rush skills. First-round pick Chris Perry has been injury prone at running back, forcing the team to pick Kenny Irons this year. Madieu Williams, one of the team's second-round picks, has a chance to be a Pro Bowl safety. Linebacker Landon Johnson is a starter and Caleb Miller has also contributed. Fourth-round pick Stacy Andrews will compete for a starting job at left guard this season and sixth-round pick Greg Brooks will push for a job as the nickel corner along with Keiwan Ratliff, another second-round pick.

Grade: B Not hitting on Perry hurts. But getting Geathers and Williams helps offset that miss.


After playing two games in two years, Kellen Winslow hauled in 89 passes in 2006. (US Presswire)
Cleveland Browns: They took tight end Kellen Winslow in the first round and he had a good season last year, but injuries have held him back. Second-round pick Sean Jones had his best season in 2006 as a starter at safety. They didn't have a third-round pick, but the rest of the draft didn't bring much.

Grade: C If the Soldier continues to produce, and stay healthy, grade will improve.

Dallas Cowboys: They didn't have a first-round pick, trading it to the Bills for their 2005 first-round pick, but used the first of their two second-rounders on Julius Jones, who is their starting running back. That 2005 first-round pick ended up being DeMarcus Ware, their best defensive player. The next two picks in 2004 were misses, tackle Jacob Rogers in the second round and guard Stephen Peterman in the third. Both are long gone. They did get receiver Patrick Crayton in the seventh, which was a steal.

Grade: B If you count Ware, this was a good, solid draft.

Denver Broncos: They had 10 picks, including four in the first three rounds. But the only starter on their team from those 10 picks is linebacker D.J. Williams. Second-round pick Tatum Bell was traded to Detroit and receiver Darius Watts, another second-round pick, is now with the New York Giants. The rest of the draft didn't produce anything.

Grade: D One good player out of 10 picks is a bad draft.

Detroit Lions: They had two first-round picks, and hit on both of them. Receiver Roy Williams is a heck of a player and running back Kevin Jones, when healthy, has been an effective back. The problem now is that he is coming off a serious foot injury. Second-round pick Teddy Lehman is the starting middle linebacker, but he, too, has been bothered by injuries. Third-round pick Keith Smith is a backup corner and fifth-rounder Alex Lewis has started games at linebacker.

Grade: B If Jones can return to his pre-injury form, this is a good draft. But with two first-round picks, you expect that.

Green Bay Packers: First-round pick Ahmad Carroll, recently waived by Jacksonville, never became the elite corner the Packers thought he'd be. They did get a starter in center Scott Wells in the seventh round. Fifth-round pick Corey Williams sees quality time at defensive tackle.

Grade: C- When you a blow a premier pick like Carroll, you're lucky your not in D land.

Houston Texans: First-round pick Dunta Robinson is a heck of a corner. But they also traded back into the first round to take linebacker Jason Babin and he certainly hasn't lived up to the expectations. Fourth-round pick Glenn Earl starts at safety and seventh-round pick Shantee Orr is a starting linebacker.

Grade: B-minus The Babin moves taints an otherwise pretty good draft.


Who is the best defensive player from the '04 NFL Draft?
Will Smith
Bob Sanders
Sean Taylor
DeAngelo Hall
Tommie Harris
Jonathan Vilma




Indianapolis Colts: They didn't have a first-round pick, trading down, but hit on second-round pick Bob Sanders, who is one of the best safeties in the league. Jason David, who was a starting corner before signing with the Saints, came in the fourth round. Starting guard Jake Scott came in the fifth round. Backup linebacker Gilbert Gardner was a third-round pick who didn't live up to expectations and was recently waived.

Grade: B-minus Sanders is the only starter from this draft heading into 2007, but he's a heck of a player.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Using the ninth overall pick on receiver Reggie Williams hasn't worked out, but they did hit on some other picks. Second-round linebacker Daryl Smith is a starter, kicker Josh Scobee came in the fifth round and seventh-round pick Bobby McCray had 10 sacks last year. Second-round pick Greg Jones is the starting fullback and fifth-round pick Ernest Wilford has been a solid third receiver.

Grade: B They didn't get what they expected from Williams, but they landed some good players in this draft.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs traded their first-round pick to Detroit and moved down and picked up extra picks. They ended up with two second-round picks, but defensive tackle Junior Siavi was released last summer and tight end Kris Wilson is a backup. They did hit on fourth-round picks Jared Allen and Samie Parker. Allen is a good player at defensive end while Parker is a starter at receiver. Seventh-round pick Kevin Sampson has started at times.

Grade: C Missing on second-round picks really hurts, but getting Allen in the fourth round is a steal -- if he can stay out of trouble.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins got two starting offensive linemen in this draft. Right tackle Vernon Carey came in the first round and center Rex Hadnot came in the fourth round. The rest of the draft, which didn't include a second-round pick, didn't bring anything else.

Grade: C Two starting linemen is a good thing, but they didn't get much else.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings got their two starting defensive ends in this draft. They landed Kenechi Udeze with their first-round pick and got Darrion Scott in the third. That's a good job. Second-round pick Dontarrious Thomas hasn't been what they expected at linebacker. Backup running back Mewelde Moore came in the fourth round.

Grade: B-minus Getting two starting ends in one draft brings the grade up.

New England Patriots: The Patriots had two first-round picks and did a nice job with both of them. Vince Wilfork, the first of those two picks, starts at nose tackle. Ben Watson, the other first-round pick, is a starting tight end -- and a good one. But they missed on second-round pick Marquise Hill and third-round pick Guss Scott.

Grade: C They hit the two early picks, but not much after that.


The Saints landed a premier pass rusher in Will Smith with the 18th pick. (US Presswire)
New Orleans Saints: The Saints hit on first-round pick Will Smith, who is a Pro Bowl pass rusher. Getting that type of impact rusher with the 18th pick is a good move. Receiver Devery Henderson came in the second round and he finally had a good season in 2006. They missed on linebacker Courtney Watson with their other second-round pick, and he's no longer on the team. They did get starting fullback Mike Karney, a bruising blocker, in the fifth round.

Grade: B Getting three quality starters like Smith, Henderson and Karney is a good haul.

New York Giants: This is the draft that brought them quarterback Eli Manning. They actually drafted Philip Rivers but traded him to the Chargers for Manning. Oh yeah, they also gave them a first-round pick in 2005. Manning still hasn't lived up to the hype, but he can still be a Pro Bowl quarterback. They just gave up too much. Second-round pick Chris Snee is one of the best guards in football. They landed starting safety Gibril Wilson in the fifth round.

Grade: C Manning has to come through with some Pro Bowl years to make this grade go up.

New York Jets: First-round pick Jonathan Vilma was a hit; he's their best linebacker. But they missed on third-round corner Derrick Strait, which knocks the grade down. They made up for it getting starting receiver Jerricho Cotchery in the fourth round and safety Erik Coleman in the fifth. Coleman is one of the league's best safeties, even if he hasn't been to the Pro Bowl yet. Fourth-round pick Adrian Jones has started at tackle.

Grade: A-minus The only thing that knocks this down from an A is the Strait pick.

Oakland Raiders: This draft started with Robert Gallery, who was the second overall pick. He has been a starter since he came into the league, but he isn't nearly as good as many expected he would be. Second-round pick Jake Grove starts at center and third-round pick Stuart Schweigert is a starter at safety. The rest of the draft didn't produce much else.

Grade: C They landed three starters, but Gallery not living up to the hype hurts.

Philadelphia Eagles: They had 10 picks and got two starter from the group, one being top pick Shawn Andrews. He starts at right guard, and he's one of the best in football. But there were a lot of misses after that. Third-round pick Matt Ware, a corner from UCLA, never lived up to the expectations and was cut last year. Starting fullback Thomas Tapeh did come in the fifth round.

Grade: C They didn't do enough with all those picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers took Ben Roethlisberger with the 11th pick in the first round. That gave them a franchise passer for the next decade. There's plenty of value there. In the second round, they landed corner Ricardo Colclough, who hasn't become a starter yet. Third-round pick Max Starks is the starting right tackle. The late rounds didn't produce much.

Grade: B Getting a franchise passer ups the grade.


Which team had the best draft?
Bucs
Ravens
Bengals
Packers
Redskins




St. Louis Rams: They hit big on first-round pick Steven Jackson, landing him with the 24th overall pick. They made that pick though they still had Marshall Faulk on the roster. That was a nice move. The rest of the draft didn't produce one player who will start in 2007. That's not good.

Grade: C-minus Jackson was all they got. Yes, he's good. But that's not enough.

San Diego Chargers: If you're looking for a reason why the Chargers are a Super Bowl contender, look to this draft. It was loaded with players who are now major contributors to this team. This was the year they made the deal for Rivers by trading Eli Manning to the Giants. But this was a great draft for the Chargers. They got Rivers, who is their starter. Defensive end Igor Olshansky came in the second round, kicker Nate Kaeding and center Nick Hardwick in the third, linebacker Shaun Phillips in the fourth and tackle Shane Olivea in the seventh. All five are starters. In addition, backup running back Michael Turner came in the fifth round.

Grade: A-plus This draft is why this team is one of the best in football.

San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers blew their first-round pick on receiver Rashaun Woods, and they're still paying or it. They traded him last year and the Chargers cut him. Can you say bust? They did a nice job with their two second-round picks, getting guard Justin Smiley and corner Shawntae Spencer, both of whom have been starters. Fourth-round pick Isaac Sopoaga has been a starter at times at defensive tackle. Sixth-round pick Keith Lewis started at safety last season.

Grade: B-minus Missing on the first-round pick really hurts and drops down the grade.

Seattle Seahawks: Run stuffer Marcus Tubbs was the first-round pick, and he has been bothered by injuries. He's good when he's on the field. Second-round pick Michael Boulware has started at safety, but he will be pushed for his job this year. Third-round pick Sean Locklear is the team's right tackle and was the best pick of the draft. Fifth-round pick D.J. Hackett is a nice third receiver and good special-teams player.

Grade: C-minus Boulware's decline hurts the class.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: First-round pick Michael Clayton looked like he would be a star in his first season, but the past two years have been disasters. If he doesn't bounce back, it will really hurt this class. The rest of it didn't offer much. Among the rest of the picks, safety Will Allen is the only starter -- and he might not be next year.

Grade: F Unless Clayton comes alive, this draft class stinks.

Tennessee Titans: They didn't have a first-round pick, but did have a lot of choices. But of their 13 picks, including three in the second round, they didn't get much bang for their buck. The three second-round picks were tight end Ben Troupe and defensive ends Antwan Odom and Travis Laboy. None has been worth that pick, with Odom held back by injuries. The best pick might have been fifth-round choice Jacob Bell, who has started on the offensive line. Third-round pick Randy Starks is also a backup.

Grade: D For as many picks as they had there wasn't a lot of return.

Washington Redskins: They landed safety Sean Taylor with their first pick, and he is a very good player. They didn't have a second-round pick -- do they ever? -- but they hit on tight end Chris Cooley in the third round. He has developed into a nice pass-catching threat. The other two picks didn't bring much. They traded their second-round pick in the trade to get Clinton Portis and their third-round pick to get Mark Brunell.

Grade: C Good at the top, but not much else. Vintage Redskins.

BallHawk
05-11-2007, 03:47 PM
A C- is generous. I'd give it more of a D.

BF4MVP
05-11-2007, 03:48 PM
C- is extremely generous....I'd give that draft an F without even blinking...

PS reguarding that question on there about who is the best offensive player from the '04 draft..It's Steven Jackson in my opinion..1500 yards rushing and 800 yards receiving in the same season is spectacular..

BallHawk
05-11-2007, 03:55 PM
C- is extremely generous....I'd give that draft an F without even blinking...

PS reguarding that question on there about who is the best offensive player from the '04 draft..It's Steven Jackson in my opinion..1500 yards rushing and 800 yards receiving in the same season is spectacular..

I'd say Larry Fitzgerald. It's scary to imagine that guy if he had a decent QB.

HarveyWallbangers
05-11-2007, 05:04 PM
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings got their two starting defensive ends in this draft. They landed Kenechi Udeze with their first-round pick and got Darrion Scott in the third. That's a good job. Second-round pick Dontarrious Thomas hasn't been what they expected at linebacker. Backup running back Mewelde Moore came in the fourth round.

Grade: B-minus Getting two starting ends in one draft brings the grade up.

Too funny. Personally, I'd take Scott Wells and Corey Williams over Udeze and Scott. Scott is okay. Average starter at best though, and Udeze has been a huge disappointment. Moore is okay. Thomas is a non-descript backup. Don't get me wrong. Our draft was horrible and deserved no better than a D, but I doubt even Viking fans look at that draft and think it was a B- draft.

Rastak
05-11-2007, 05:38 PM
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings got their two starting defensive ends in this draft. They landed Kenechi Udeze with their first-round pick and got Darrion Scott in the third. That's a good job. Second-round pick Dontarrious Thomas hasn't been what they expected at linebacker. Backup running back Mewelde Moore came in the fourth round.

Grade: B-minus Getting two starting ends in one draft brings the grade up.

Too funny. Personally, I'd take Scott Wells and Corey Williams over Udeze and Scott. Scott is okay. Average starter at best though, and Udeze has been a huge disappointment. Moore is okay. Thomas is a non-descript backup. Don't get me wrong. Our draft was horrible and deserved no better than a D, but I doubt even Viking fans look at that draft and think it was a B- draft.


Udeze played the run quite well last year but his lack of sacks is legendary. It wasn't a terrible draft when you get two starters.....B- isn't exactly an A+.


Good to see vigilent Harv watching for Vike news..... :wink:

HarveyWallbangers
05-11-2007, 05:46 PM
Two average starters, and is one even really a starter? One would likely ride the pine, but is in there only because the guy who should be starting (Erasmus James) keeps getting injured.

That would be like me saying the Packers got three starting rookie OGs last year. Hey, they all started at least 10 games. But, seriously only two of them are starters, and one played because of injuries.

Rastak
05-11-2007, 05:51 PM
Two average starters, and is one even really a starter? One would likely ride the pine, but is in there only because the guy who should be starting (Erasmus James) keeps getting injured.

That would be like me saying the Packers got three starting rookie OGs last year. Hey, they all started at least 10 games. But, seriously only two of them are starters, and one played because of injuries.

I'm probably a homer (probably) but I like both Udeze and Scott.....I guess you can chalk it up to me being a homer.....

SD GB fan
05-11-2007, 08:49 PM
C- was definitely generous. wasnt this the draft when we also got joey thomas, bj sanders, and donnell washington? *shiver* im surprised some teams actually did worse than that.

MadtownPacker
05-11-2007, 09:00 PM
Two average starters, and is one even really a starter? One would likely ride the pine, but is in there only because the guy who should be starting (Erasmus James) keeps getting injured.

That would be like me saying the Packers got three starting rookie OGs last year. Hey, they all started at least 10 games. But, seriously only two of them are starters, and one played because of injuries.

I'm probably a homer (probably) but I like both Udeze and Scott.....I guess you can chalk it up to me being a homer.....How did you two avoid throwing punches last night?
:?:

Rastak
05-11-2007, 09:11 PM
Two average starters, and is one even really a starter? One would likely ride the pine, but is in there only because the guy who should be starting (Erasmus James) keeps getting injured.

That would be like me saying the Packers got three starting rookie OGs last year. Hey, they all started at least 10 games. But, seriously only two of them are starters, and one played because of injuries.

I'm probably a homer (probably) but I like both Udeze and Scott.....I guess you can chalk it up to me being a homer.....How did you two avoid throwing punches last night?
:?:


Actually, we get along great. Harv is a product of his environment (like me) but in this case I'm pretty sure he's just giving us his flat out unbiased opinion. By the way, I reserve the right to judge future opinions on their merit...... :wink:

Patler
05-12-2007, 09:51 AM
The rating system seems to depend on whether the team "hit" on its first couple picks or not. The Packers got a starting center and a "starting" defensive tackle who had more sacks than all but 1 (or was it 2?) other DTs in the league. The Vikings got two starting DEs, one perhaps starting only by default. Neither DE is anything special.

The only difference in the players is the round in which they were drafted, not their performance. Yet, the Vikings got a much more positive review. How else can it be explained?

mraynrand
05-12-2007, 02:44 PM
Good drafts are based on two things 1) numbers - if you get 3-4 solid contributors - mostly starters, it's a decent draft and 2) great players - if you get just one pro bowler, that's huge, but it's not enough - you have to fill gaps. That's why it's hard to evaluate a GM just on the draft. Sherman had a lousy GM year in 2004, screwing up his first four picks, screwing up the McKenzie situation, the Donatell situation (I know, this could be considered a coaching move), and not replacing Hatley. Still, good players, especially pro bowlers are hard to get at the bottom of the first. Only four guys made the pro bowl who were picked after Carroll - Kaeding, Hardwick, Sanders, and Vasher - all of them played on loaded teams - San Diego, Indy, Chicago.

2004 was also the year the Packers picked up Cullen Jenkins as a rookie FA. A really bad year, by most measures, yet the Packers netted 3 solid contributors.

HarveyWallbangers
05-12-2007, 03:13 PM
I think you need more than 3 solid contributors. You need 3 solid starters, at least. You should have even more who end up being solid backups, STs guys, and the like.

There are 22 starters on a team. Guys become FAs within 5 years, so you better get 3 solid starters and another average starter or solid backups in each draft.

It is true that if you hit on a great player or two that can trump the numbers.

mraynrand
05-12-2007, 04:32 PM
Harv,

I agree. Sometimes the problem is in using certain words. A 'decent' draft may not be good enough to build a winning team. So if a team gets 3 contributors, that's not good enough - you will eventually decline. If you get 3 starters and a couple of role players/teams players/backups, that should gt you 9-10 wins. If you hit a few pro bowlers in there, with a top 10 NFL player, you might win a superbowl.

RashanGary
05-12-2007, 05:32 PM
I agree mraynrand. You should have a bunch of solid drafts but somewhere along the line you have to hit it big.

That's partially why I don't think stretching yourself in FA is a good thing. If you do get higher priced guys to fill holes, they are usually relatively temporary because most UFA's are toward the middle or end of their prime. They are patch work. If you use the other avenues, you don't strech yourself thin so you have teh flexibility to make the really good decisions when you need to and you might not get that 1 extra win but you build the base and get an earlier pick and a better chance at that special player.

Maybe both Harrell and Hawk are perenial probowl studs. In that case, it was worth it to go through some growing pains instead of getting a stop gap, winning and extra game or two and not having any stud players at the end of the day.

I think there is a certain balance of making the right decisions without going into desperation which causes bad decisions. The desperation might help for 1 year but after that, you probably could have found a better way to fill the position and you would have had a higher pick to go with it. You want to do your best every year but you have to remember if you didn't think of tomorrow yesterday you'd be dealing with yesterdays garbage today. I think if you take a big picture approach you'll have the best chance over time.