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Bretsky
05-17-2007, 06:16 AM
Anatomy of a Draft Choice


General Manager Ted Sundquist offered a hearty handshake for first-round pick Jarvis Moss when the two conferred at Broncos headquarters Sunday. By Andrew Mason
DenverBroncos.com

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- If you're not picking at the top of the NFL Draft, you have to learn to be flexible. And having never picked higher than fourth since the institution of the common AFL-NFL Draft four decades ago, the Broncos have never held such sway over their pick.

They've learned to sit and wait. But they've also learned how to make a key swap to get their desired player, which proved to be the case Saturday with their second draft-day trade of their first-round selection in as many years.

Flexibility entails willingness to make a swap -- and also the desire to target multiple players. In the Broncos' case, General Manager Ted Sundquist said their first-round focus locked in on three names: Florida defensive end Jarvis Moss, Florida State outside linebacker Lawrence Timmons and Tennessee defensive tackle Justin Harrell.
"There were three guys that we had our eyes on," Sundquist said.

The question was -- could the Broncos strike twice in the first round? It nearly happened.

"The hope was this – we would get one of the three guys at 21, and I had contacted everybody from 22 to 27," Sundquist said. "I had commitments from (Philadelphia) -- who traded its first-round pick -- and I had a pretty firm commitment from Dallas, the next pick behind us. On draft day, we were sitting very, very pretty with regards to having two first-rounders. And we were committed to doing that."

Then came the revision to the plan at the 15th and 16th selections. From the first of those two picks, the Pittsburgh Steelers tapped Timmons. A selection later, the Green Bay Packers called Harrell's name.

"We didn't anticipate that," Sundquist said.
LET'S MAKE A DEAL

For every trade that transpires in the NFL, there's at least a dozen potential deals that evaporate barely seconds after the idea first floats into the air.

Sundquist hit the phones repeatedly over the weeks leading into the NFL Draft. But for every call he made, he received another offering him a deal -- many from the top of the draft. There was, of course, the early-March potential trade between the Broncos and Detroit Lions that would have sent the No. 2 overall pick to Denver.

"It's no failure on our part, by any means," Sundquist said. "It was one of those deals where we had to get up there, but we weren't going after Calvin Johnson or a particular player. No. It was to try and maximize your position – which is always what you're trying to do."

That potential trade petered out just days after the National Scouting Combine. Soon enough, other clubs would ring Sundquist's line.

"Eight of the top 10 teams approached us about trading up -- not us (coming) to them. They called us and said, 'Would you be interested in trading up?' We said, 'Well, what do you want? What are you looking for?' By that time we had been into the draft process, talked about who the players were, talked about what we thought was available in the top 10, what was available 15-20 and what was going to be available from 20 to 32. As you get a better feel for who the players are and what your needs are going to be, then the appeal of being in the top 10 might not be as much as it was as it might have been right around that time of the Combine. Now you've got a little bit better hand.

"Is it worth moving up to that point and paying that particular player that kind of money when you might be able to get a similar player to fit what you're trying to do for much less? So there was plenty of opportunity."

Sundquist said only two teams in the draft's top 10 did not call the Broncos offering to swap first-round selections.

"The Raiders didn't talk to us and the Texans did not talk to us -- not ever, not once. I don't know where that (rumor) came from," Sundquist said, "but not once did we have discussions with Houston about trading to No. 10 to take Patrick Willis, which was all the rage. Where that came from, I have no idea, but certainly there was a lot of talk with teams such as Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa Bay – all those guys that were up there."

The draft arrived, and the Broncos inquired about moving up in the round to secure their chances at nabbing one of their three targeted players. But what the Broncos found for a little while was a series of dead ends.

"Green Bay had already told me, 'We're not going to trade.' Carolina had told me, 'We're not going to trade,' (although they did eventually work a deal with the New York Jets). Pittsburgh had already told me, 'We're not going to trade.'

"When you're dealing with another team, it takes two to tango," Sundquist said. "And you've got to get the other team wanting to feel like they've maximized their position, as well.

Enter the Jaguars.

"Jacksonville had talked about moving from 17 back, so I knew at that point in time that the highest we could go was 17, and it didn't make any sense to move up to 12, because we felt like that block of players was going to be down there.

"If I could have gotten Green Bay or Pittsburgh or Carolina to budge, sure, we would have moved up, and maybe we would have (opted for) Harrell or Timmons. But based on what we talked about -- there was one mock draft out of 90 that had Harrell going at 16. One. And that was the one (that became reality).

"We knew that all along; all it takes is one. But those clubs, prior to the draft, did not want to trade, and how much do you give up in order to move up?"

In the end, the cost was third- and sixth-round picks for the chance to venture northward two slots. It was a price Sundquist and the Broncos were willing to pay given their desire to emerge from the first round with at least one of their targeted players.

"You're sitting and waiting at 21, and between the 17th and 21st picks, you've got a chance to lose your third guy," Sundquist said. "Then you're sitting at 21, and now you're trying to trade back or trade out. Why not trade up and get the guy you'd targeted all along anyway? You gave up a third-round pick. Why not?

"(Some observers say) 'Well, you guys paid too much to move up.' No, we didn't. We had the guy (Moss) identified. We knew he was going to make the football team. He might have gone before 21 and now we're stuck with no one that we feel like is going to help our football team the way those three guys (the No. 21 pick and the third- and sixth-round picks traded to the Jaguars) would have helped our football team.

"The sixth-round pick that we gave up? We didn't even have that guy making our team. We had nobody we were going to take at that spot that we felt like would come in and contribute. Those picks – all along, they were going to be used as leverage. The third-round pick – that's what it's going to take to move up on the point-value chart. You've got to get people motivated to trade."

And at that point, a reasonable trade represented a far more palatable solution for Sundquist than remaining at No. 21 and waiting to see if the last of their three highlighted prospects would fall into their laps.

"To say, 'Well, you could have waited until 21 to get Moss,' well, we thought that about the other two (Harrell and Timmons being picked)," Sundquist said. "Who's to say that Moss would have been there at 21? So we went and got our guy, end of story."
LATE-ROUND LEVERAGE

Sundquist had designs on reducing the Broncos' compliment of selections all along. The modus operandi for this year's Broncos draft was quality over quantity, and while the Broncos ended the weekend with their smallest draft class since 1997, they also concluded it with selections from each of the first four rounds.

"Knowing what we had already added, we went into the draft feeling as if there was only room for four guys," Sundquist said, "(and) knowing that the back end of the draft was going to be leveraged to help the front end of the draft."

A major reason why Sundquist and the Broncos were so amenable to parting with late-round draft selections rested in the moves made in the months prior to the draft, from unrestricted free agency to the signing of young players to future contracts back in January, before the NFL's postseason wound to a close.

An example of such a player is former UAB quarterback Darrell Hackney, on whom the Broncos had a mid-round grade last year before he went undrafted. He was eventually signed and released by the Cleveland Browns.

"The first thing I'll say is this: Throughout the offseason, to say the only way that you build a football team is through the draft is not true -- not in today's age," Sundquist said. "There's a little bit of a misnomer that teams are built through the draft. That is one aspect of how to build a football team, and my point to that is that we have been extremely busy using the other resources that we have, a la reserve-future signings, unrestricted free agency, trades and going into the draft that there are a number of different avenues that you can take to build your football team."

And it was not only those avenues -- but what fruits they have already borne -- that helped shape the Broncos' decision to place a tight focus up front on draft weekend.

"We've been in offseason conditioning program for over a month now," Sundquist said, "and we've had an opportunity to look at a number of young players and new additions prior to the draft and have been able to answer some of those questions with regards to how they're working out for Rich Tuten out there during the offseason, throwing the football, catching the football and all kinds of things.

"We had a good idea of what we already had on our football team."

Bretsky
05-17-2007, 06:19 AM
great article for the draft niks; wonder if TT would ever agree to give out this much information.

Fritz
05-17-2007, 06:39 AM
No, Bretsky, it's not in his nature.

Interesting insight into the way one GM thinks. It will be interesting to see how Jarvis Moss works out for them. I am a little surprised TT didn't want to do a deal, period. He must have felt that the quality of players available at the 21 spot was a drastic drop from those available at the 16 spot. Clearly, TT did not have guys like Bowe, Meachem, and Olsen ranked as highly as many "expert" sites did. It does give some insight into the way TT ranks things. He definitely marches to the beat of his own scouting reports.

This actually comforts me. The guy trusts his own judgments on players. He's not wondering what everyone else is thinking, except in terms of how that will impact who's taken when. I guess the bottom line is that I believe in his ability to judge talent. If he thinks James Jones is the best wide receiver prospect on the board and takes him in round three, then I'll live with it and see how it pans out.

Bretsky
05-17-2007, 06:46 AM
No, Bretsky, it's not in his nature.

Interesting insight into the way one GM thinks. It will be interesting to see how Jarvis Moss works out for them. I am a little surprised TT didn't want to do a deal, period. He must have felt that the quality of players available at the 21 spot was a drastic drop from those available at the 16 spot. Clearly, TT did not have guys like Bowe, Meachem, and Olsen ranked as highly as many "expert" sites did. It does give some insight into the way TT ranks things. He definitely marches to the beat of his own scouting reports.

This actually comforts me. The guy trusts his own judgments on players. He's not wondering what everyone else is thinking, except in terms of how that will impact who's taken when. I guess the bottom line is that I believe in his ability to judge talent. If he thinks James Jones is the best wide receiver prospect on the board and takes him in round three, then I'll live with it and see how it pans out.

TT had manlove for Harrell. He definitely marches to his own beat.

Still marveled that we didn't take Cleveland's first round pick next year. As much as I want to win now, I'd have jumped at that.

Fritz
05-17-2007, 07:31 AM
Had Cleveland offered its second and third and next year's first, I would have been all over that too.

wist43
05-17-2007, 07:33 AM
Could you ever imagine TT going into a draft with the intent of reducing his number of picks from 7 to 4??? The quality over quantity argument...

I've made that point b/4... 12 picks every year, eventually all you're doing is replacing the bottom end of your roster that you drafted the previous couple of years, with the lower round picks you drafted this year. It just becomes a revolving door.

Since TT won't target needs...

How odd was it to read that a GM had actually targetted 3 players, and when two of them were gone he acted proactively to move to get the 3rd guy... or, that they actually view the other avenues of player procurement as being viable tools to build a team???

No worries... we'll keep drafting quantity over quality - eventually some of those 6th and 7th rounders will become pro bowlers!!!

pbmax
05-17-2007, 07:37 AM
Shouldn't that have read "a Laurel, and Hardy handshake"? :lol:

Is there anyone old enough on this board to get that joke?

And while I feel vindicated that someone else thought he was first round material even after the injuries, I wish it was a team other than the Broncos.

Shanahan has had little success finding D lineman for a long time. Might be the kiss of death.


General Manager Ted Sundquist offered a hearty handshake for first-round pick Jarvis Moss when the two conferred at Broncos headquarters Sunday. By Andrew Mason
DenverBroncos.com

Bretsky
05-17-2007, 07:42 AM
Could you ever imagine TT going into a draft with the intent of reducing his number of picks from 7 to 4??? The quality over quantity argument...

I've made that point b/4... 12 picks every year, eventually all you're doing is replacing the bottom end of your roster that you drafted the previous couple of years, with the lower round picks you drafted this year. It just becomes a revolving door.

Since TT won't target needs...

How odd was it to read that a GM had actually targetted 3 players, and when two of them were gone he acted proactively to move to get the 3rd guy... or, that they actually view the other avenues of player procurement as being viable tools to build a team???

No worries... we'll keep drafting quantity over quality - eventually some of those 6th and 7th rounders will become pro bowlers!!!


While I don't have as strong as convictions as you on this, you make a lot of good points.

This was a draft with about 7 top rated round 1-2 WR's. McGinn noted the Packers had both Rice and Jarrett graded high. With about 8 picks to GB both were there; TT was probably licking his chops.

But Minnesota was in front of us (with great need at WR) and both players were highly rated on the board for that time. If you wanted to get one of the two if was very risky not to make it happen.

Does TT stone up...aka....trade up.... to get a guy that might really be able to help, or does he let the board fall to him ? If he did that I bet many of us, myself included, would like the Harrell pick a bit more.

Or does he passively see what happens.

He let the board fall to him and when he didn't like anybody there he traded down.

Supports your point, Wist.


B

pbmax
05-17-2007, 07:46 AM
Great article Bretsky.

And while T2 has had the last two first rounds nailed down, wist has a point. The place I felt we got hosed was the WR run in the second. Teams clearly saw that with GB not having taken a WR, they needed to jump up over them.

If T2 knew he was taking Harrell, he should have seen this. Assuming he was going WR.

If Jackson was among the targets like Jennings was, then well played.

And I think our craptastic ST is an indication that the bottom of the roster needed to be turned over. What T2 does after that will be interesting. I wonder if the plan changes then?


Could you ever imagine TT going into a draft with the intent of reducing his number of picks from 7 to 4??? The quality over quantity argument...

I've made that point b/4... 12 picks every year, eventually all you're doing is replacing the bottom end of your roster that you drafted the previous couple of years, with the lower round picks you drafted this year. It just becomes a revolving door.

Since TT won't target needs...

How odd was it to read that a GM had actually targetted 3 players, and when two of them were gone he acted proactively to move to get the 3rd guy... or, that they actually view the other avenues of player procurement as being viable tools to build a team???

No worries... we'll keep drafting quantity over quality - eventually some of those 6th and 7th rounders will become pro bowlers!!!

Rastak
05-17-2007, 07:55 AM
I was surprised the Vikings traded down a few spots and still got Rice while picking up a fourth rounder. I can see how they could reasonably assume the four teams that sat in front of them after trading down wouldn't take a WR but as Bretsky mentioned, GB could have moved up to snatch him. Then again, they had two guys, Rice and Jarrett on the board so they probably felt comfortable taking the chance.

HarveyWallbangers
05-17-2007, 09:27 AM
I'm a huge advocate for trading down whenever it's decent value. I'm a firm believer that the more bullets you have in the draft, the better your chances on hitting on several players. There's always guys that get drafted late that do well--even if there's a team that projects not one of them "will contribute." I wonder if he felt the same way about the picks in round 7 last year. I'm sure for that team, he'd love to have Marques Colston on the roster.

We've snagged Tauscher, KGB, Wells, Driver, etc. late, so I don't buy the argument that you are only replacing bottom feeders on your roster late in the draft.

wist43
05-17-2007, 10:03 AM
I'm a huge advocate for trading down whenever it's decent value. I'm a firm believer that the more bullets you have in the draft, the better your chances on hitting on several players. There's always guys that get drafted late that do well--even if there's a team that projects not one of them "will contribute." I wonder if he felt the same way about the picks in round 7 last year. I'm sure for that team, he'd love to have Marques Colston on the roster.

We've snagged Tauscher, KGB, Wells, Driver, etc. late, so I don't buy the argument that you are only replacing bottom feeders on your roster late in the draft.

On a percentage basis, I would imagine the odds are against the majority of 6th/7th/FA's. Yes, there are examples of guys who make it - and some make it big; but, for the most part, you can't expect to land an impact player in the bottom end of the draft. You're definitely into crapshoot territory there.

That said, there's a time and place for everything, and in general, I am an advocate of trading down as well; but, once you've got the bottom end of your roster shored up - IMO, it's time to target and go after specific players at specific positions, i.e. quality over quantity.

I think Denver's GM did a decent job of explaining their position... I just don't think TT will ever be able to loosen up his approach to adopt a different strategy in any given year. I think we're going to get a steady diet of 13 draft choices, no offers or lowball offers to FA's, and in general, no real effort put into filling holes with quality players.

Grow from within... we're going to be hearing that for years to come. Favre will be gone soon - they'll have to replace him; Woodson, Harris, Pickett, Clifton, Driver, and Tauscher will all have to be replaced w/in the next few years. If they expect to fill all of those holes from w/in, combined with the already existing holes on the roster... TT's 10 year plan could turn into a 15 year plan.

Packnut
05-17-2007, 10:19 AM
I'm a huge advocate for trading down whenever it's decent value. I'm a firm believer that the more bullets you have in the draft, the better your chances on hitting on several players. There's always guys that get drafted late that do well--even if there's a team that projects not one of them "will contribute." I wonder if he felt the same way about the picks in round 7 last year. I'm sure for that team, he'd love to have Marques Colston on the roster.

We've snagged Tauscher, KGB, Wells, Driver, etc. late, so I don't buy the argument that you are only replacing bottom feeders on your roster late in the draft.

On a percentage basis, I would imagine the odds are against the majority of 6th/7th/FA's. Yes, there are examples of guys who make it - and some make it big; but, for the most part, you can't expect to land an impact player in the bottom end of the draft. You're definitely into crapshoot territory there.

That said, there's a time and place for everything, and in general, I am an advocate of trading down as well; but, once you've got the bottom end of your roster shored up - IMO, it's time to target and go after specific players at specific positions, i.e. quality over quantity.

I think Denver's GM did a decent job of explaining their position... I just don't think TT will ever be able to loosen up his approach to adopt a different strategy in any given year. I think we're going to get a steady diet of 13 draft choices, no offers or lowball offers to FA's, and in general, no real effort put into filling holes with quality players.

Grow from within... we're going to be hearing that for years to come. Favre will be gone soon - they'll have to replace him; Woodson, Harris, Pickett, Clifton, Driver, and Tauscher will all have to be replaced w/in the next few years. If they expect to fill all of those holes from w/in, combined with the already existing holes on the roster... TT's 10 year plan could turn into a 15 year plan.


That's the fly in the ointment that the TT crowd just does'nt get. Everyone else is using FA's to shore up holes and like it or not, you can't sit back while everyone else is using it. It's a fatal flaw in the "draft to re-build" theory. As you stated, just about the time the guys you have drafted mature, the older guys have to be replaced and it becomes a never ending cycle.

And the theory about going after FA's when the time is right is flawed also cause you have no clue if there will be any DB's on the FA market 2 or 3 years from now. The using the draft to re-build is old and out-dated. It was true when free agency had little impact and everyone was'nt using it. These are different times and the odds are that Teddy's stubborness and in-ability to adapt will prove very painful for us fans..........

Fred's Slacks
05-17-2007, 10:37 AM
I'm a huge advocate for trading down whenever it's decent value. I'm a firm believer that the more bullets you have in the draft, the better your chances on hitting on several players. There's always guys that get drafted late that do well--even if there's a team that projects not one of them "will contribute." I wonder if he felt the same way about the picks in round 7 last year. I'm sure for that team, he'd love to have Marques Colston on the roster.

We've snagged Tauscher, KGB, Wells, Driver, etc. late, so I don't buy the argument that you are only replacing bottom feeders on your roster late in the draft.

On a percentage basis, I would imagine the odds are against the majority of 6th/7th/FA's. Yes, there are examples of guys who make it - and some make it big; but, for the most part, you can't expect to land an impact player in the bottom end of the draft. You're definitely into crapshoot territory there.

That said, there's a time and place for everything, and in general, I am an advocate of trading down as well; but, once you've got the bottom end of your roster shored up - IMO, it's time to target and go after specific players at specific positions, i.e. quality over quantity.

I think Denver's GM did a decent job of explaining their position... I just don't think TT will ever be able to loosen up his approach to adopt a different strategy in any given year. I think we're going to get a steady diet of 13 draft choices, no offers or lowball offers to FA's, and in general, no real effort put into filling holes with quality players.

Grow from within... we're going to be hearing that for years to come. Favre will be gone soon - they'll have to replace him; Woodson, Harris, Pickett, Clifton, Driver, and Tauscher will all have to be replaced w/in the next few years. If they expect to fill all of those holes from w/in, combined with the already existing holes on the roster... TT's 10 year plan could turn into a 15 year plan.

That's the idea behind trading down and gaining extra picks. It's hard to find the gems in the late rounds but if you have more picks you have a better chance. And with more young prospects you will have less holes in the future.

So for Woodson/Harris, we have Blackmon/Walker/Bush or some other young guy we pick up later. For Picket we have Harrell/Williams/Jolly. For Clifton/Tauscher we have Barbre/Moll/Colledge/Bourke. For Driver we have Jones/Clowney/Martin/Holliday/Bodiford. I know most these players haven't done anything yet, but with a large number of young guys with potential theres a good chance that those spots are already filled.

Ballboy
05-17-2007, 10:40 AM
I agree, someone should send TT this excerpt to remind him that you CANNOT build a team through the draft ONLY...you need to use FA and trades as well: This is the fatal flaw to TT plan.


Quality over Quantity is debatable. It is so tough to determine if a 1st round pick would be a solid NFL player - we all know the names of players picked in rounds 1 or 2 that don't make it.

oregonpackfan
05-17-2007, 10:44 AM
The original article was a fascinating read of the strategy used by a GM in his draft picks.

We may never know TT's strategy unless he writes a "Tell-All" book after he leaves football.

I do feel, however, that TT is wise in not revealing his thoughts or views on the drafts. Other GM's may come to know his strengths, weaknesses, patterns, etc.

ND72
05-17-2007, 12:23 PM
I agree, someone should send TT this excerpt to remind him that you CANNOT build a team through the draft ONLY...you need to use FA and trades as well: This is the fatal flaw to TT plan.


Charles Woodson, Marquad Manuel, Ben Taylor, & Ryan Pickett were free agents...so you can't say he hasnt' used it. He just choose not to use it this year, for a rather BLAH FA class. I have no problem with what he's done. Money wise, he's giving himself the chance to use money to go after someone if he so chooses. What all of you are blind to, is the FACT that Thompson has made phone calls. Last year it was well documented that he made phone calls to lots of players who declined his invitation. You can't sign players who don't want to sign with you.

woodbuck27
05-17-2007, 01:31 PM
Could you ever imagine TT going into a draft with the intent of reducing his number of picks from 7 to 4??? The quality over quantity argument...

I've made that point b/4... 12 picks every year, eventually all you're doing is replacing the bottom end of your roster that you drafted the previous couple of years, with the lower round picks you drafted this year. It just becomes a revolving door.

Since TT won't target needs...

How odd was it to read that a GM had actually targetted 3 players, and when two of them were gone he acted proactively to move to get the 3rd guy... or, that they actually view the other avenues of player procurement as being viable tools to build a team???

No worries... we'll keep drafting quantity over quality - eventually some of those 6th and 7th rounders will become pro bowlers!!!

NOT many of them over a ten year stretch will become Pro Bowlers.

I believe this:

Quantity selection will not exceed quality selection over the long haul.

TT really believes in the. . . we'll develop our team fr. within aproach or via solid coaching in the right system.

We'll see in 2007 just how that's working for him.

GO PACKERS !

Ballboy
05-17-2007, 01:37 PM
I agree, someone should send TT this excerpt to remind him that you CANNOT build a team through the draft ONLY...you need to use FA and trades as well: This is the fatal flaw to TT plan.


Charles Woodson, Marquad Manuel, Ben Taylor, & Ryan Pickett were free agents...so you can't say he hasnt' used it. He just choose not to use it this year, for a rather BLAH FA class. I have no problem with what he's done. Money wise, he's giving himself the chance to use money to go after someone if he so chooses. What all of you are blind to, is the FACT that Thompson has made phone calls. Last year it was well documented that he made phone calls to lots of players who declined his invitation. You can't sign players who don't want to sign with you.


I'll give you Woodson, and MAYBE Pickett, but the rest, come on.....I'm not trying to compare teams, but look at the Broncos from last year vs. this year, that is what is meant by using FA and trades.

Scott Campbell
05-17-2007, 02:20 PM
TT had manlove for Harrell.


So did Sunquist. But Ted stayed put and got his guy. Sunquist blinked and traded up to get one of his.

ND72
05-17-2007, 02:25 PM
I agree, someone should send TT this excerpt to remind him that you CANNOT build a team through the draft ONLY...you need to use FA and trades as well: This is the fatal flaw to TT plan.


Charles Woodson, Marquad Manuel, Ben Taylor, & Ryan Pickett were free agents...so you can't say he hasnt' used it. He just choose not to use it this year, for a rather BLAH FA class. I have no problem with what he's done. Money wise, he's giving himself the chance to use money to go after someone if he so chooses. What all of you are blind to, is the FACT that Thompson has made phone calls. Last year it was well documented that he made phone calls to lots of players who declined his invitation. You can't sign players who don't want to sign with you.


I'll give you Woodson, and MAYBE Pickett, but the rest, come on.....I'm not trying to compare teams, but look at the Broncos from last year vs. this year, that is what is meant by using FA and trades.


You're comparing us and Denver? A team that is already in place to make a run into the playoffs, compared to a team who is still trying to build itself. And as it is....Denver still finishes as a Wild Card next year anyway, cause San Diego still has more talent than them.