packers11
05-29-2007, 10:04 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2878571
INSIDER
Teams don't shy away from Bailey
Champ Bailey is by far the top cornerback in the NFL. His 4.7 yards per attempt total last year was the best of any cornerback in the four years I have been breaking down tape. Since Bailey is always the best cornerback on the field no matter who lines up on the other side of him, it seems logical offenses would stay away from him under any circumstances.
However, Bailey was thrown at 65 times in 2006, while Darrent Williams, the starter opposite Bailey for 14 games last season, had only 73 passes thrown his way. Bailey had 4.1 passes thrown at him per game, versus 5.2 for Williams.
Interestingly enough, Bailey and Williams were but one example of a number of odd cornerback pass distributions:
• Chris McAlister (7.3 YPA) had 97 passes thrown at him, versus 83 for Samari Rolle (10.1 YPA).
• Antoine Winfield spent the 2006 season lining up opposite a revolving door of cornerbacks on the other side of the field, yet still had 89 passes thrown his way, the seventh-highest total in the league.
• DeAngelo Hall isn't as good as many pundits suggest, but he played opposite Allen Rossum and Jason Webster, both of whom posted YPA totals over 10 yards. Despite the obvious weakness on the other side of the field, Hall had 87 passes directed at him.
Those aren't the only top cornerbacks who had a lot of passes thrown their way. In fact, the top-20 list of the most targeted cornerbacks from 2006 includes a slew of big names.
1. Anthony Henry, Dallas Cowboys -- 100
2. Chris McAlister, Baltimore Ravens -- 97
3. Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears -- 96
4. Carlos Rogers, Washington Redskins -- 96
5. Rashean Mathis, Jacksonville Jaguars -- 95
6. Quentin Jammer, San Diego Chargers -- 94
7. Antoine Winfield, Minnesota Vikings -- 89
8. DeAngelo Hall, Atlanta Falcons -- 87
9. Antrel Rolle, Arizona Cardinals -- 86
10. Fred Smoot, Minnesota Vikings -- 86
11. Fred Thomas, New Orleans Saints -- 86
12. Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 85
13. Dunta Robinson, Houston Texans -- 84
14. Samari Rolle, Baltimore Ravens -- 83
15. Dre' Bly, Detroit Lions -- 83
16. Brian Williams, Jacksonville Jaguars -- 82
17. Asante Samuel, New England Patriots -- 82
18. Drayton Florence, San Diego Chargers -- 81
19. Daven Holly, Cleveland Browns -- 80
20. Will Allen, Miami Dolphins -- 80
Ronde Barber, Dunta Robinson, Dre Bly, Rashean Mathis, Asante Samuel and Will Allen are all arguably the best cornerbacks on their teams, yet were also the most targeted cornerbacks.
So why don't teams avoid the best cornerbacks? There are four possible reasons:
1. The best cornerback is often assigned to cover the top wide receiver. Offensive coordinators may want to stay away from the stronger cornerback if possible, but aren't willing to let their best receiver be taken out of the game.
2. Defensive coordinators will often help the weaker cornerback by rolling coverage his way, giving the offense a choice of throwing into the strength of the defensive coverage or taking its chances against the stronger cornerback.
3. A quarterback can't be expected to change his reads just because there is a less favorable matchup on one side of the field. If the play call says he is supposed to look at the receiver on the side of the stronger cornerback, he will look that way.
4. Some passing plays are predicated on how far off the receiver the cornerback lines up. For example, if a cornerback is playing seven or more yards off the wide receiver, the quarterback and receiver will often have a silent signal call to each other to change the play to a quick hitch pass.
The quick hitch, which is also called a smoke screen, is a pass where the quarterback takes a one-step drop and throws immediately to the receiver. A lot of the best cornerbacks in the league play soft coverage in an effort to stop the deep pass, and are willing to give up these kinds of plays in return.
There are still numerous instances where an offensive coordinator will consistently target the weaker cornerback in a secondary, but the metrics show that in most cases a topflight cornerback cannot expect to take off any games.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available for a special preorder price at his Web site.
INSIDER
Teams don't shy away from Bailey
Champ Bailey is by far the top cornerback in the NFL. His 4.7 yards per attempt total last year was the best of any cornerback in the four years I have been breaking down tape. Since Bailey is always the best cornerback on the field no matter who lines up on the other side of him, it seems logical offenses would stay away from him under any circumstances.
However, Bailey was thrown at 65 times in 2006, while Darrent Williams, the starter opposite Bailey for 14 games last season, had only 73 passes thrown his way. Bailey had 4.1 passes thrown at him per game, versus 5.2 for Williams.
Interestingly enough, Bailey and Williams were but one example of a number of odd cornerback pass distributions:
• Chris McAlister (7.3 YPA) had 97 passes thrown at him, versus 83 for Samari Rolle (10.1 YPA).
• Antoine Winfield spent the 2006 season lining up opposite a revolving door of cornerbacks on the other side of the field, yet still had 89 passes thrown his way, the seventh-highest total in the league.
• DeAngelo Hall isn't as good as many pundits suggest, but he played opposite Allen Rossum and Jason Webster, both of whom posted YPA totals over 10 yards. Despite the obvious weakness on the other side of the field, Hall had 87 passes directed at him.
Those aren't the only top cornerbacks who had a lot of passes thrown their way. In fact, the top-20 list of the most targeted cornerbacks from 2006 includes a slew of big names.
1. Anthony Henry, Dallas Cowboys -- 100
2. Chris McAlister, Baltimore Ravens -- 97
3. Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears -- 96
4. Carlos Rogers, Washington Redskins -- 96
5. Rashean Mathis, Jacksonville Jaguars -- 95
6. Quentin Jammer, San Diego Chargers -- 94
7. Antoine Winfield, Minnesota Vikings -- 89
8. DeAngelo Hall, Atlanta Falcons -- 87
9. Antrel Rolle, Arizona Cardinals -- 86
10. Fred Smoot, Minnesota Vikings -- 86
11. Fred Thomas, New Orleans Saints -- 86
12. Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 85
13. Dunta Robinson, Houston Texans -- 84
14. Samari Rolle, Baltimore Ravens -- 83
15. Dre' Bly, Detroit Lions -- 83
16. Brian Williams, Jacksonville Jaguars -- 82
17. Asante Samuel, New England Patriots -- 82
18. Drayton Florence, San Diego Chargers -- 81
19. Daven Holly, Cleveland Browns -- 80
20. Will Allen, Miami Dolphins -- 80
Ronde Barber, Dunta Robinson, Dre Bly, Rashean Mathis, Asante Samuel and Will Allen are all arguably the best cornerbacks on their teams, yet were also the most targeted cornerbacks.
So why don't teams avoid the best cornerbacks? There are four possible reasons:
1. The best cornerback is often assigned to cover the top wide receiver. Offensive coordinators may want to stay away from the stronger cornerback if possible, but aren't willing to let their best receiver be taken out of the game.
2. Defensive coordinators will often help the weaker cornerback by rolling coverage his way, giving the offense a choice of throwing into the strength of the defensive coverage or taking its chances against the stronger cornerback.
3. A quarterback can't be expected to change his reads just because there is a less favorable matchup on one side of the field. If the play call says he is supposed to look at the receiver on the side of the stronger cornerback, he will look that way.
4. Some passing plays are predicated on how far off the receiver the cornerback lines up. For example, if a cornerback is playing seven or more yards off the wide receiver, the quarterback and receiver will often have a silent signal call to each other to change the play to a quick hitch pass.
The quick hitch, which is also called a smoke screen, is a pass where the quarterback takes a one-step drop and throws immediately to the receiver. A lot of the best cornerbacks in the league play soft coverage in an effort to stop the deep pass, and are willing to give up these kinds of plays in return.
There are still numerous instances where an offensive coordinator will consistently target the weaker cornerback in a secondary, but the metrics show that in most cases a topflight cornerback cannot expect to take off any games.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available for a special preorder price at his Web site.